Oil-Rich Nations Use More Energy, Cutting Exports

[RamboLiberal]

Source: NY Times

The economies of many big oil-exporting countries are growing so fast that their need for energy within their borders is crimping how much they can sell abroad, adding new strains to the global oil market.

Experts say the sharp growth, if it continues, means several of the world’s most important suppliers may need to start importing oil within a decade to power all the new cars, houses and businesses they are buying and creating with their oil wealth.

Indonesia has already made this flip. By some projections, the same thing could happen within five years to Mexico, the No. 2 source of foreign oil for the United States, and soon after that to Iran, the world’s fourth-largest exporter. In some cases, the governments of these countries subsidize gasoline heavily for their citizens, selling it for as little as 7 cents a gallon, a practice that industry experts say fosters wasteful habits.

“It is a very serious threat that a lot of major exporters that we count on today for international oil supply are no longer going to be net exporters any more in 5 to 10 years,” said Amy Myers Jaffe, an oil analyst at Rice University.



Read more: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/12/09/business/worldbusiness/09oil.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

[Captain Angry]

1. It's a shame that some of these oil rich countries don't get much sun or wind.

cough.

[daleo]

2. It is too bad that oil poor countries couldn't use sun or wind as well

Sun and wind are hateful things to big oil, though.

[Captain Angry]

5. Yep.

Permanent debt and servitude seems to work out better when the dictator of a particular country is paid to make oil deals.

I'll leave it to the reader to decide which dictator I'm referring to.

[magellan]

3. We used to be one of them

We've still got the sun and wind, but we aren't doing much with them.

[Captain Angry]

4. Precisely.

It's much cheaper to use something that you know how to use instead of putting people to work on projects that will create self sufficiency.

We should have solar arrays all over Arizona/New Mexico. But that would be socialist to actually have the government put people to work and then lower the cost of electricity for all citizens by generating piles of it for the grid.

We should have wind turbines all over Montana/North Dakota/Wyoming...

All of these products could be built in the United States, putting our citizens to work on technical and well paying jobs. But again, that'd be socialist. So we should just pour money into countries to get a polluting nonrenewable substance.

I mean, it's the year 2007 and we still have humans underground digging for coal. We still put humans on offshore platforms to pull up sludge to be refined. Good grief.

We need a visionary in office, and a whole lot of visionaries in Congress to push some real programs through without the consent of the lobbyists.

I think we both know how that will go though. :-(

[spag68]

6. coal

I agree with most of what you say. Coal, however, is now had by blowing off mountain tops and loading it on trucks.

[Captain Angry]

7. In West Virginia, yes.

In all of those mine collapses, no.

The coal continues, and it's a travesty.

I forget who it was that coined the phrase, but I like it. Oil and coal are basically just ancient sunlight. The sun was involved in the plants that became coal and oil over millions of years. And we're just burning it.

One of those philosophical questions I have in my head from time to time is, with all of the mountains we've torn down, and all of the mines we've dug, just to throw all of it into the atmosphere, I can't believe that the planet hasn't collapsed in on itself.

(And I came up with that one WITHOUT drinking or drugs.)

[tom_paine]

8. Who could have foreseen this would happen?

:rofl:

www.theoildrum.com

[ClintonTyree]

9. I smell another invasion coming......

how DARE these countries use OUR oil for their own purposes! Just because it happens to lie beneath their soil doesn't mean that it's theirs. That's OUR oil, dammit! :sarcasm:

[Flanker]

10. The govt here is doing something about it.

In 2008 all cars sold are required to accept gasoline and natural gas.

[Javaman]

15. Yet it still takes between 20 and 50 barrels of gas to produce a single car...

Until people who care about the environment understand this and start buying used cars, nothing is going to change.

[rodeodance]

11. Dems could make this a real issue in the election. so far they have not.

[Strelnikov_]

12. "Export-Land” Model. Really of no concern

unless you live in a country that consumes 30% of the worlds export market.

And pay for said imports with a steadily weakening currency.


“Export-Land” Model: Jeffrey Brown, a commentator at The Oil Drum, has proposed a geopolitical feedback loop that he calls the “export-land” model. In a regime of high or rising prices, a state’s existing oil exports brings in great revenues, which trickles into the state’s economy, and leads to increasing domestic oil consumption. This is exactly what is happening in most oil exporting states. The result, however, is that growth in domestic consumption reduces oil available for export. In states, such as Mexico, where oil production is also in decline, the “export-land” model predicts that oil exports will decline much faster than oil production—and this is exactly what is happening, with the latest PEMEX report showing 5% production decline year-on-year, but 11% export decline. Ultimately, the effects of the “export-land” model itself suffers from diminishing marginal returns—when exports shrink sufficiently, the oil-export revenue per capita will actually begin to decline (eventually reaching zero, no matter how fast prices rise), at which time the force behind rising domestic consumption will be eliminated.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/2767

++++++++++++++=

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oiltrade.html

All in Mbbl/dy

Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2005

Saudi Arabia 9.1
Russia 6.7
Norway 2.7
Iran 2.6
United Arab Emirates 2.4
Nigeria 2.3
Kuwait 2.3
Venezuela 2.2
Algeria 1.8
Mexico 1.7
Libya 1.5
Iraq 1.3
Angola 1.2
Kazakhstan 1.1
Qatar 1.0

=====

Above represents 39.9 Mbbl/dy of 42 Mbbl/dy world export market
18.7 Mbbl/dy of above in Persian Gulf region

Top World Oil Net Importers, 2005

United States 12.4
Japan 5.2
China 3.1
Germany 2.4
South Korea 2.2
France 1.9
India 1.7
Italy 1.6
Spain 1.6
Taiwan 1.0


Top World Oil Consumers, 2005 (Domestic production in parans.)

United States 20.7 (8.3 - 40%)
China 6.9 (3.8 - 55%)
Japan 5.4 (0.2 - 4%)
Russia 2.8
Germany 2.6
India 2.6
Canada 2.3
Brazil 2.2
Korea, South 2.2
Mexico 2.1
France 2.0
Saudi Arabia 2.0

[robertpaulsen]

16. Thanks for spelling out how the NY Times watered down the truth.

What is really scary that the NY Times article just barely scratches the surface of, is how the severe decline in the Cantarell field will significantly decrease the amount they can export to the US. I wrote about it here:

We need to wake up to what's going on in Mexico NOW.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x1334856

The New York Times needs to wake up to reality as well. They need to start quoting Jeffrey Brown and stop quoting Daniel Yergin!

[Strelnikov_]

13. ..

Moscow


Caracas


Kuwait City


Tehran


Mexico City

[Javaman]

14. And the projects path of oil depletion continues to reveal itself as true. nt