STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday March 4

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday March 4, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 323
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2599 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2325 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2616
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 3, 2008

Dow... 12,258.90 -7.49 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq... 2,258.60 -12.88 (-0.57%)
S&P 500... 1,331.34 +0.71 (+0.05%)
Gold future... 984.20 +9.20 (+0.93%)
30-Year Bond 4.43% +0.01 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.53% UNCH (UNCH)






GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp: Commodities on Fire

It's more than just a dollar implosion story
BY TONY ALLISON

“History is not on your side. If you want stable prices, you have to have stable money. The middle class is being wiped out and it has to do with the value of money. How are you able to defend this policy of deliberate depreciation of our money?”
~ Congressman Ron Paul, speaking to Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke last week before the House Financial Services Committee on Capitol Hill.

As one might expect, Mr. Bernanke’s answer to this question was less than illuminating. Fed Chairmen don’t usually speak clearly until they become ex-Fed Chairmen. However, the actions of the Federal Reserve, as well as other central banks around the globe, offer some clarity on why the commodity markets are red hot in 2008. Without overstating the case, global money supply growth is just as hot, if not hotter. As illustrated in the charts below, year to date money supply figures are striking. As an example money supply growth in Russia is up 44%, India up 23%, Australia up 23%, Brazil up 18%, U.S. up 16% (M3), UK up 12%, etc.
.....

Supply Issues

Despite the skyrocketing prices, the inventories of many commodities are lower than they were during the 2001 recession. Discovering, permitting, extracting and shipping natural resources can take years, even decades. It will take time to overcome the past two decades of massive underinvestment in resource exploration and development. This is why commodity bull markets can run 15 years or more before significant new supply brings prices back down. In addition this is the first commodity bull market with the specter of Peak Oil looming ahead, if not already knocking on the door. That alone can have huge implications in terms of supply, price, and future expectations of market behavior.

.....

Nothing Grows to the Sky

The current rate of explosive growth in commodity prices is clearly unsustainable. Of course if we see a meltdown in the global financial system, all bets are off. Without a financial meltdown, commodities will likely pull-back and consolidate at some point this year. Prices retreat after parabolic advances. That is the way markets work. But this doesn’t necessarily mean the end to the commodity bull-run. The fundamental elements are still there, in spades. The Fed and other central banks are still creating currency at alarming rates. The growth story in Asia will continue. The supplies of most commodities are limited, particularly oil, the most crucial commodity of all. These are not the fundamentals of a looming bear market.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Ghost Dog]

23. Commodities surge as stocks, dollar arrest falls

LONDON (Reuters) - A potent rally in commodity markets showed no sign of slowing on Tuesday with resources from platinum to rice at or near record highs, while oil held near $102 a barrel, helping stock markets halt recent falls.

...

The greenback's recent woes have added fresh fuel to fired-up commodity markets, raising the allure of dollar-denominated resources including gold, platinum, food commodities and crude oil for non-U.S. investors.

...

The Baltic Exchange's chief sea freight index (.BADI), which gauges the strength of major trade routes for bulk commodities, has powered up by an eye-watering 40 percent in the last six weeks.

Analysts said current lofty levels were not a deterrent to further gains, with global economic uncertainty hastening the need for portfolio diversification into commodities.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080304/bs_nm/markets_global_dc;_ylt=AvCAXafZGAfcg5ZNO4Cxv1O573QA

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

12:00 AM Auto Sales Feb
Briefing Forecast 5.0M
Market Expects 5.2M
Prior 5.1M

12:00 AM Truck Sales Feb
Briefing Forecast 6.8M
Market Expects 6.8M
Prior 6.6M

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

[NMDemDist2]

44. how is it we still buy so many more trucks than cars??

hasn't anyone heard of Global Climate Change??

:banghead:

[Ghost Dog]

47. Need to regulate for more efficiency?

Slap high taxes on gasoline and diesel and gas-guzzlers (like in Europe) to deter profligacy - taxes to be earmarked for infrastructure and public transport etc. (not military)?

- once elected, of course: mention little or none of this during an election campaign ;-)

[kickysnana]

49. We had to trade up to a full size van and cannot afford two vehicles.

I cannot say about others. My Aunt who lives with me had a stroke. We looked into minivans and decided the lowered floor would only work in MN if we had a garage. We have to park in an apartment parking lot, neither of us can shovel. Went from 20mpg to 11 so I have tried to cut back on my trips but I cannot leave my Aunt alone over 4 hours max. Yesterday my stop at the post office took 45 minutes because their computers were slow. That cut out going to the drug store this week.

Public transpiration is very, very complicated. You have to call 4 days in advance. All trips end up being 4 hours even if you are going in for a B12 injection that takes 10 minutes at the doctors because that van won't wait and there is a minimum hour between rides. They insist on scheduling you to your doctors appointment 45 minutes early and then have a 30 minute window to pick you up 15 minutes before and after. By midmorning they are always running early on pickups, late on dropoffs. She is eligible for a medivan so we were able to schedule a visit with my Mom by using both services. You cannot use the medivan to go to the drugstore if you got a prescription from that appointment so you had to go back to get it after the ride. You can schedule same day service but the last time we did that it cost us $25 one way as we had to move 11 miles north of where our doctors are when she had her stroke. It would take 2 hours to get to her doctors office on the regular bus lines with 3 transfers. We are looking into finding a doctor closer but with 15 minutes appointments you really need someone who knows your history to be able to get any kind of health care.

If we had not had the Van she would not have been able to see my Mom before she died in January, once when she first entered the hospital and again when she took a turn for the worse and she definitely would not have been able to attend the funeral. To hire the van is $70 for the trip to my parents house, 11 miles 15 minutes, renting a wheelchair van is several hundred also. We searched for over a year to find one we could afford because inflation has already hit this market. You take the cost of the van, new or used and add the full price of the lift, no discount for used and that is at least $3500. So a $750 beater, our last car (can you find these anymore?) would go for $4,250 plus sales tax and transfer. We snatched up a 1991 Ford conversion with 69,000 actual country miles in great condition, two owners for the cost of the lift.

I buy on sale in bulk. I buy online if I can get free shipping but we cannot use a small energy efficient vehicle at this time and using the medivan doubles the actual miles for our trip. We just don't pay directly for the gas. I thought about a scooter for myself. But I have MS and have intermittent balance problems and we live in MN with long winters. If I wipe out we both would be in the nursing home.

[InkAddict]

59. I know personally how hard it can be to do right by a loved one

while you're down and out yourself--been there.

Others are sooooo quick to judge and make judgments on what large sacrifices we need to make. The upside is one's conscious is clear though it just about kills your spirit and body. Bless you and tune out the civilian judges. If you've got any energy left at all, continue to be an activist for better disabled and elderly services. Do you have any volunteers. Our ex-community had a co-ordinated volunteer transportation service that took Dad for his dialysis treatments and sometimes to his doctor visits. Most were willing to stop at his pharmacy, though later on, he wasn't able to manage that on his own.

Bless you for what you do.

[trogdor]

69. Must we use disclaimer EVERY TIME?

Do we need to include them EVERY TIME we talk about SUVs and conspicuous consumption? Yes, there are people who need full size trucks, panel vans, four-wheel-drive vehicles, etc. We know that. You keep reminding us of that as if we're dumber than a bag of rocks. Enough already. I'm really sorry about your sad situation, but enough already. It isn't helping.

[kickysnana]

71. Chill, life is complicated sometimes it requires SUVs. OP asked. I answered. PS We're OK. Hope UR2.

[Mojorabbit]

107. I have MS too

Be careful out there. I no longer drive and I know how tough it is to get around. Best of luck to you.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil steadies after overnight record

SINGAPORE - Oil prices held steady Tuesday in Asia after blasting overnight to a new record near $104 a barrel and then falling back.

Oil futures — propelled by the weak U.S. dollar — climbed past $103.76 a barrel Monday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, breaking what many analysts consider to be the true record high for oil after the $38 per barrel price from 1980 is adjusted for inflation.

"Every other day, we've got a new record," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "It's due to the phenomenon of investors getting into commodities, the hard assets, to find a safer haven and a hedge against inflation."

On Tuesday, light, sweet crude for April delivery fell 26 cents to $102.19 a barrel in Asian electronic trading by late afternoon in Singapore. The contract hit $103.95 a barrel Monday before retreating to settle at $102.45, up 61 cents from the end of last week.
.....

Analyst estimates for where oil goes from here vary widely. Some predict an eventual decline to the $65 or $70 range as supplies continue to grow and demand falls. Others see prices rising as high as $120 as investment capital continues to flow into oil.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

5. OPEC unlikely to raise output

VIENNA, Austria - OPEC has all but ruled out pumping more oil to ease record-high prices, key oil ministers signaled Tuesday on the eve of a key meeting.

Chakib Khelil, president of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said the 13-nation cartel is shying away from boosting production because of the U.S. economic slowdown, political turmoil in the Middle East and expectations of slackening global demand for crude.
.....

Kuwait and Libya are among OPEC members who have said the cartel should maintain its current output, estimated at about 31.5 million barrels a day — roughly 40 percent of daily world demand.

However, Iran and Venezuela — both hawkish on prices — have pressed for a cut in output. Analysts said it was doubtful that the rest of OPEC would go along with that, since it would push prices even higher in the short-term.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080304/ap_on_bi_ge/opec_meeting

[Roland99]

11. Wholesale gas up to $2.67/gal. Market futures down about 1% so far.

not looking pretty out there today.

[ozymandius]

17. Stocks poised for sharp fall

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stock futures fell early Tuesday after chipmaker Intel cut its profit forecast and as investors awaited the latest readings on the battered U.S. economy from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

At 6:35 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures were sharply lower, indicating a difficult start for Wall Street.

Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) lowered its profit outlook after the market close Monday, saying that the price for memory chips had fallen more than expected. Shares of the Dow component fell 2.1% in early trading in Frankfurt Tuesday.

At 9 a.m. ET, Fed Chairman Bernanke is set to speak at Independent Community Bankers of America meeting in Orlando about "Reducing Preventable Mortgage Foreclosures." It is the last scheduled public comment from the nation's top central banker before policymakers meet March 18 to consider interest rates.

In testimony before Congress last week, Bernanke said he expected to see the number of bank failures rise this year and was concerned about the need for larger banks to raise additional capital.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/04/markets/stockswatch_ny/index.htm

[ozymandius]

18. futures at 6:17

S&P futures vs fair value: -7.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.3.

[4dsc]

48. Testing the lows

I just heard a talking head on CNBC state he believe's the markets will "test the lows" and that if the markets retreat further he stated " we have along road ahead of us"..

[AnneD]

56. Turn Back The Hands of Time.....

Seems like we are getting closer by the week now. Guess the date the DJIA rolls back to the level it was when the chimp took office-10,578.24. You can revise your dates up until Labour Day (the working man's holiday)or the DJIA hits 11000 (got to have a cut off). Anyone can join, just give a date and your reasoning for that date.

the other one.....1/30
DemReadingDU.....2/29
Ther-s a.....3/15
Talking Dog.....3/28 at 2 pmish
Warpy...3/20
FinnFan.....4/10
ProgressiveRealist.....4/17
Mattsh.....4/22
GhostDog.....4/28
MilesColtrain.....5/2
Happyslug.....5/9
InkAddict.....7/3
UIA.....7/15
Roland99.....7/28
Abelenkpe.....8/2
Kineneb.....8/8
Prag.....9/5
MoJo Rabbit.....9/5
MuleBoy(aka hiz honna da mayor).....9/11
Birthmark....10/10
AnneD....10/24
MsLeopard.....10/31
Ship wrack.....11/5
Demeter.....1/20/09

Remember-you can change the dates as we learn more. The winner get the praise and admiration of those on the Stockwatch Thread. There is still time to place your bets.....

[Ghost Dog]

29. Gazprom slashes Ukraine gas supply

MOSCOW (AFP) - Russian gas monopoly Gazprom said Tuesday it would cut Ukraine's gas supply by a further 25 percent over a debt dispute.

Gazprom has already cut supplies by 25 percent and has decided "to cut deliveries by another 25 percent" at 1700 GMT Tuesday, spokesman Sergei Kuprianov said on state television.

/. http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080304/bs_afp/russiaukraineenergygascut_080304100530

[Ghost Dog]

31. Ukraine Says It Could Cut Europe's Gas

Ukraine has raised the stakes in its natural gas dispute with Russia, saying that if Russia further cuts its shipments, Ukraine could restrict gas passing through its territory to Western Europe.

/.. http://asia.news.yahoo.com/080304/ap/d8v6juf01.html

[UpInArms]

42. Oil Tops Inflation-Adjusted Record Set in 1980

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/04/business/worldbusiness/04oil.html?ex=1362286800&en=8b2bcde5bd298a7d&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

Capping a relentless rise in recent years, oil prices hit a record high during the day on Monday, then pulled back to close below the record.

The day’s highest trading price, $103.95 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, broke the record set in April 1980 during the second oil shock. That price, $39.50 a barrel, equals $103.76 today, when adjusted for inflation.

The surge in energy prices is taking place as investors seek refuge in commodities to offset a slowing economy and a declining dollar. Analysts pointed out that financial institutions like pension funds and hedge funds are also buying oil and other commodities like gold as hedges against a rise in inflation.

That trend is expected to continue, especially after Ben S. Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, signaled last week that he was ready to cut interest rates further to bolster economic growth, despite rising consumer prices.

“When investors lose confidence in the central bank, they tend to look for hard assets,” said Philip K. Verleger, an economist and oil expert. “The Fed’s capitulation on inflation is driving investors to commodities.”



...more...

[Demeter]

4. Financial Fantasies From DailyReckoning.com

The Dow got walloped hard on Friday, down 315 points. But it still remains well above the lows it hit in January. Analysts don’t know what to make of it. With so much bad news around, you’d think the Dow would react to the downside. Typically, the commentators reach the wrong conclusion: that the stock market is telling us not to worry; the economy will recover in the “second half.”

Dear Readers are encouraged to worry anyway. What the stock market is telling us, we think, is that there are conflicting forces acting upon it. Inflation on the one side...deflation on the other. Neither is good for stock prices. But inflation tends to hold up nominal prices...while real prices collapse. A share of Google may be worth $400 in 2010 for example. But so might an ice cream cone.

Stock prices in the ’70s, for example, tended to bear up or fall a little. In real terms, however, they fell a lot. We seem to be coming upon a similar situation now – popularly known as stagflation. The economy is sinking...while inflation pushes up consumer prices...


“Fed cuts not doing the trick,” says a headline in the LA Times . The trick Fed cuts are not doing is the old, familiar one – they’re not boosting the U.S. economy. As Paul Volcker put it, the Fed has lost control of the situation. It cuts rates...but its efforts to cause ‘growth’ in the economy only cause a growth in prices – commodities , gold and the consumers’ cost of living.

Our old friend, Rick Ackerman, comments:

“The Fed’s extraordinary steps thus far to reinflate the economy have been directed almost entirely at institutional lenders rather than individuals. (We ignore the $160 billion tax rebate, since it is just a drop in the bucket relative to total debt.) The result is that there has been little discernible economic stimulus, only a buildup of reserves on lenders’ books with no corresponding demand for loans. (Actually, loan demand has been shrinking, and fast.)

“So, what Helicopter Ben appears to have achieved using measures that even we would concede are hyperinflationary is: nothing. The banks might be able to pass themselves off as solvent, provided the auditors are in on the con. But merely making the lenders appear not to be bankrupt has done absolutely nothing to achieve what the Fed had set out to do – i.e., re-kindle the housing boom. In fact, even though mortgage rates have trended lower, the lenders have been under great pressure to tighten their standards. The result is that, on balance, demand from home buyers has continued to fall.”

Still, the Fed is not giving up without a fight. The smart money is betting that we’ll get another rate cut later this month – another 50 basis points, bringing the key rate down to 2.5%.

“The party’s over,” says Warren Buffett. He was talking about the party in the insurance business, where profit margins are shrinking. But he may also have been referring to a much bigger, wilder party. In his annual letter to shareholders, he says that Berkshire Hathaway as seen its best days. He regards it is too large to produce the kind of above-market performance the group has had in the past.

And he probably also had the state of the U.S. economy in mind. The lights have been turned off and the bottles put away at the party in the housing market, for example. Buffett says the revelers got carried away by “fantasies.” House buyers thought housing prices would go up forever. So did the people who lent them money. Since prices would rise forever, there was no need to worry too much about a borrower’s ability to repay the loan; it was as though he’d never have to.

Another subject for the Sage’s scorn were the self-serving fantasies promoted by pension funds, CEOs, and investment managers who imagine that they will be able to produce earnings far above what is really likely.

Of course, fantasies were behind the whole boom. For example, Americans lived beyond their means and thought they could do so indefinitely. This led to the curious situation in which fewer than 10% of the world’s people – in the U.S.A – were spending more than 80% of the entire world’s savings. The foreigners saved...and lent their money back to the United States, usually in the form of Treasury or government agency bonds (such as those from Fannie Mae. Americans took the money...and spent it, again, on things coming from overseas. Gradually, the foreigners built huge piles of U.S. dollars...some of which they’ve put into Sovereign Wealth Funds.

Buffett had something to say about these funds too. The SWFs are coming under attack in the United States. But they’re not some underhanded way of stealing from Americans, he says. Instead, they’re the logical consequence of spending more than you earn. That was a fantasy too: you can’t give foreigners pieces of green paper and expect them not to spend them.

Meanwhile, the weekend press brought more proof that Volcker is right; the Fed’s cuts are not working. The BBC reports that HSBC is going to announce a writedown of $16 billion. And the hedge fund, Peloton, is sticking investors with $2 billion in losses.

In some areas of the United States, there are now more foreclosures than house sales.

Derivative trading predicts another 20% drop in housing prices, says former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, which would put 10 million homeowners upside down, with more mortgage than house. If that happens, he says 2 million houses would be foreclosed over the next two years.

Summers goes on to propose a new law, which would prevent the lenders from foreclosing. Why not? Once you permit yourself to assign profits and losses according to your own desires...rather than let people get what they’ve got coming...well, the sky’s the limit.

*** Alan Greenspan was back in the news too. He told a group of Arabs that the Gulf oil states should cut their currencies loose from the dollar. Good advice for everyone. But it’s funny stuff from the mouth of the person who had more to do with the dollar’s decline than any other human in history.

[ozymandius]

9. Buffett says U.S. in recession

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Billionaire investor Warren Buffett said on Monday the U.S. economy is in recession and that stocks are "not cheap" despite recent declines.

Buffett also said he is no longer offering to guarantee $800 billion of municipal bonds backed by MBIA Inc (MBI.N), Ambac Financial Group Inc (ABK.N) and FGIC Corp, three bond insurers that ran into trouble from also backing riskier debt.

Speaking on CNBC television, Buffett said the economy is heading south even though gross domestic product has not yet fallen for two straight quarters, a definition many economists use to identify a recession.

Buffett also said the slowing economy and the housing slump are hurting his Berkshire Hathaway Inc (BRKa.N) (BRKb.N) insurance and investment company, whose 76 operating units sell such things as bricks, carpeting, ice cream, paint, real estate brokerage services and underwear.
.....

"In '73 and '74, we had this stagflation situation, and we really had a meltdown in equity prices," Buffett said. "We are seeing more fixed-income type forced liquidations. We are seeing more indigestion at banks with a lot of loans they don't want to have. So you're seeing a time of easy money in terms of price, but not so easy money in terms of availability."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080303/bs_nm/buffett_dc

[Demeter]

6. The Crash is past. Comes now Inflation

Cross posted from yesterday's Editorials, etc.


http://discuss.epluribusmedia.net/node/961

Seems to me a lot of people don’t realize the worst financial crash since 1929 has already occurred. I suppose they are waiting for a big explosive fireball and a lot of noise like in a Hollywood movie, or for the nightly news on their wide-screen televisions to show pictures of desperate bankers and brokers splattered on the sidewalks in front of 60-story temples of finance.

This diary is my humble little attempt to let these people know that the crash has already happened. It began in August. I guess they didn’t notice, but a number of financial markets have already collapsed. First, of course, there was the derivatives based on sub-prime mortgages. That seems to be about where the common consciousness stops. But before U.S. Secretary Treasury Hank Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke (a.k.a., Captain Carnage) even lifted a finger to try and sort out the sub-prime mortgage mess, they first had to deal with the collapse of the market for Structured Investment Vehicles. Since these two crises began last summer many other financial markets have also collapsed: corporate junk bonds, asset-backed commercial paper, municipal bonds. This last was saved just last week by New York State Insurance Commissioner Dinallo basically forcing Moodys, S&P and Fitch to give AAA ratings to the monolines insurers. All these markets have pretty much ceased functioning, with not even the banks that created some of this stuff willing to buy their own product. Financial institutions have also been disappearing, especially a number of hedge funds, the most recent being this past week: Peloton, a London-based hedge fund specializing in asset-backed bonds.



So, this is it. The financial system has crashed. Now we're finally seeing the Republican's cherished "trickle down" theories begin to work – and with a vengeance- as the damage spreads into the real economy. The basic mechanism for this is the contraction of credit, which is cutting off funds for real economic activity. Goldman Sachs and others estimate that the financial crash has contracted lending by about $2 trillion--and our economy is $15 trillion in GDP. Banks and other institutions are simply unwilling to lend. Here’s the results we know of so far:



Credit for auto loans is also drying up. A friend of mine applied for an auto loan at Wachovia, and was told they were not making loans. I thought it might be racism, so I called a different branch myself and was advised that if I wanted to buy a car my best option was to take out a line of credit on my home equity. Poof! There goes the auto industry, and all its supplying industries like steel, glass, plastic, machine tools, and so on.

As a wag on European Tribune noted a month or two ago, now we have peak credit to add to our worries over peak oil.

READ THE WHOLE ARTICLE COMPLETE WITH EXCELLENT GRAPHS. THEN WEEP.

[ozymandius]

13. Systematic economic carnage

If one were to design an economic system to fail, I do not see how one could design a system to fail more thoroughly.

[Dr.Phool]

39. Interesting.

I decided to buy my wife a new Prius for Valentines Day. I can normally walk into Wachovia, and they offer me more than I want. Before I went to the dealer, I stopped by Wachovia to check the rates. WOW! They were more than double compared to when I bought my Chevy pick-up 4 years ago.

I went to the dealer to see what they had going on. Toyota Finance had a much lower rate than any of the banks.

[ozymandius]

7. Factories Retreat As Construction Spending Plunges

A one-two punch of declining factory activity and tumbling construction spending signaled that the U.S. is on the edge of a recession, two reports showed Monday.

The Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index fell 2.4 points to 48.3 in February. That is below the neutral 50 mark and the lowest in nearly five years. But it was roughly in line with views."The numbers were not as bad as some feared," said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James. "There is a bit of softness, but we're not quite at recessionary levels."

Manufacturers have been struggling with rising raw materials and energy costs. The prices paid index edged lower but remained at levels not seen since mid-2006.
.....

Export orders continued to expand at a good clip, ISM said. Imports fell back, matching the lowest readings in years.

The report's employment index fell to 46 in February. That's the worst since 2003 and an ominous sign ahead of Friday's jobs report.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ibd/20080303/bs_ibd_ibd/20080303general

[ozymandius]

8. February auto sales tumble, Detroit hit hardest

DETROIT (Reuters) - U.S. auto sales tumbled in February in the face of a slumping economy and high gas prices with double-digit declines by all three struggling Detroit-based automakers.

Sales at General Motors Corp(GM.N), Ford Motor Co (F.N) and Chrysler LLC (CBS.UL) fell 16 percent, 10 percent and 17 percent, respectively. GM and Ford responded with cuts to second-quarter production plans, while Chrysler rolled out a new program of sales incentives.

"February was a very disappointing month for industry sales," GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz told Reuters at the Geneva auto show. "We still expect the economy to recover in the second half. Our crystal ball is not that much better than anybody else's."

Japan's Honda Motor Co Ltd (7267.T) was the only major automaker to buck the downturn with an increase of nearly 1 percent. Toyota Motor Corp (7203.T) and Nissan Motor Co Ltd (7201.T) reported declines of 6.6 percent and 3 percent, respectively.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080303/bs_nm/usa_autosales_dc

[ozymandius]

10. Citigroup, Wachovia face hedge fund lawsuits: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc (C.N) and Wachovia Corp (WB.N) are facing separate lawsuits filed in a U.S. Federal court in New York by a small fund, the Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday.

The suit claims that the banks each improperly required the fund to pay out more money from insurance derivatives contracts known as credit default swaps amid a decline in the value of the mortgage-backed bonds, said the Journal.

-very short-

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080304/bs_nm/citigroup_wachovia_dc

[ozymandius]

12. U.S. Treasuries Fall on Speculation Fed to Cut Rate 0.75-Point

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasuries fell for a second day on growing speculation the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 0.75 percentage point this month.

Two-year notes led the declines, with the yield difference between the shortest-dated debt and 10-year notes at 190 basis points, still near the widest in more than 3 1/2 years. Traders raised bets on rate cuts on speculation policy makers are more concerned about reviving economic growth than curbing inflation.
.....

The yield difference, or spread, between two- and 10-year note yields widened to as much as 1.93 percentage points on Feb. 14, the widest since July 2004. Ten-year securities are more reflective of investors' perception of future inflation.

Fed funds futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show the odds of the Fed lowering the target interest rate to 2.25 percent at its March 18 meeting have increased to 74 percent, from 68 percent yesterday. The rest of the wagers are on a 50 basis-point reduction.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aN93E1gv_3ao&refer=us

[Demeter]

27. They Would Have To Be Out of Their Minds To Cut So Deeply

They're crazy to cut at all, but still...

[54anickel]

14. Mornin' Ozy. Just stopping by for a quick peak before I head out for the day. I've sure been

missing out on a lot action these past few months not being able to "hang-witcha-all". Looks like everything we've been Watchin' for in this thread is about to come to fruition. A big part of me (great-auntie-nickel) still holds some hope we were wrong...

As always, thanks for all that you do in putting this thread together everyday! :hi: :hug:

[ozymandius]

16. Good morning 54anickel.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

I sure have missed you too - and everyone - with my teaching schedule as it is. Today's schedule stands a good chance to let me hang here for awhile. So I hope to see you as time (and life) will allow.

:hug: :hi:

[54anickel]

19. Unfortunately, I'm playing Grand-Auntie today so I won't be able to see how they

pull another trick outta their arses to help today's futures. I've got to head out the door in another half-hour or so.

Just stuck my head in the door for a peek and to say :hi:

[AnneD]

61. Ya gotta do....

what ya gotta do. The way this thread was set up, the folks it attracts, and the way it has evolved is such that a morning set up is all it needs. Ya did good:thumbsup:

[ozymandius]

15. Sour mood on Wall Street

LONDON (CNNMoney.com) -- Stock futures fell early Tuesday after chipmaker Intel cut its profit forecast and as investors remained worried about surging commodities prices.

At 5:16 a.m. ET, Nasdaq and S&P futures were lower, indicating a negative start for Wall Street.

Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) lowered its profit outlook after the market close Monday, saying that the price for memory chips had fallen more than expected.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/04/markets/stockswatch/index.htm?postversion=2008030405

[ozymandius]

20. Naked Capitalism: Credit Market Woes: Don't Count on Foreign Rescuers

John Dizard in "Disquiet on the western front of the credit world," discusses the politics of the credit crisis, depicting two opposed absolutist camps: those who'd have everyone take their lumps now, no matter how bad they turn out to be, versus those who think preventing a nasty recession is all-important, even if it means terminally trashing the dollar.

The article give a lively account of how this dynamic might play itself out, but makes an observation in passing toward the end that is more significant than what went before.

Dizard believes (and he'd pretty well plugged in) that financial firms will be unable to raise more money from sovereign wealth funds. The rest of their dough will have to come from domestic sources.

We noted nearly a month ago that sovereign wealth funds were quietly rebuffing requests for more funding, but we had taken that to be in part a negotiating ploy. After all, the banks rescuers are sitting on losses. Even the investments that weren't straight stock purchases are worth less due to the fall in equity prices and rise in credit spreads over the last quarter. Investors would presumably demand much tougher terms and try to build in downside protection.
.....

And if Dizard is correct, this has some serious implications for US firms. Virtually all the money for the last go-round of bank and investment bank capital came from abroad. While the equity markets are bizarrely sanguine relative to debt markets, this isn't a good time to raise equity if you are a financial player. Even in robust times, private equity firms aren't interested in bank equity (buying the occasional specialized financial operation is a different matter), and it's unclear how much appetite the unwashed retail public will have for multiple, competiting offerings when the industry is hemorrhaging losses.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/03/credit-market-woes-dont-count-on.html

[Demeter]

30. Well Good for the Sovreign Funds!

About time they stopped propping up the crime cabal of the US business school graduates and the BFEE.

You know that when the elephants can't decide which way to go, all the ground underfoot gets trampled. We will see the worst consequences of BOTH policies, for sure.

[Ghost Dog]

Stephen Jen: Petrodollar tsunami to hit the euro and dollar

... There are two key implications. First, the deployment of petrodollars is likely to favour equities over bonds. Second, they should favour emerging market currencies at the expense of both the dollar and the euro. These two themes are identical to the financial market implications of the emergence of Sovereign Wealth Funds, because about half of the petrodollar receipts may be invested through SWFs, and close to three-quarters of all assets under management by SWFs are derived from petrodollars.

Over the past 20 years, spot crude oil has significantly under-performed global equities, by a factor of one to three in cumulative returns, and by a factor of two to one in terms of volatility. In other words, crude oil has had a much lower return and much higher volatility compared with global equities. Calculations using data from the past 100 years yield a similar result.

Thus, from the perspective of maximising the risk-adjusted long-term return on the combined underground wealth (crude oil) and above-ground wealth (financial assets), an exporter should be expected to embark on a multi-generational transformation from crude oil to equities.

Since most oil exporting countries have a much higher propensity to invest in equities than do Asian reserve holders, because petrodollars are deployed in the financial markets, there will be a bias in favour of global equities.

At the same time, if we assume that SWF/petrodollar portfolios have benchmarks of 25:45:30 on bonds, equities, and alternative investments, the currency composition of these portfolios will look significantly different from that of the official reserves. In fact, some 95 per cent of the world's official reserves are held in only three currencies: the dollar, the euro and the pound.

While many observers focus on the shift in reserves between dollars and euros, the deployment of petrodollar investments will in fact likely tilt the balance in favour of emerging market currencies, at the expense of both the dollar and the euro. Specifically, we calculate that the theoretical share of emerging market assets in total petrodollar portfolios could be as high as 25 per cent, compared with the current exposure of official reserves to emerging market currencies of zero.

Stephen Jen is Chief Currency Economist at Morgan Stanley

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/ft/20080303/bs_ft/fto030320081204021622

[Ghost Dog]

21. Asian Stocks Fall in Longest Retreat This Year; Refiners Drop

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell for a fourth day on concern record commodity prices and credit-market losses will erode earnings.

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. dropped the most in a month in Hong Kong as crude oil traded above $102 a barrel, raising refining costs. ICICI Bank Ltd. plunged to a six-month low in Mumbai after the government said the bank had $264 million of credit-related losses. Sekisui House Ltd., Japan's second-largest homebuilder, dragged down the country's real-estate stocks after saying surging materials expenses will cut earnings.

``Rising raw-material costs are adding pressure to the industrial sector,'' said Mona Chung, who helps manage more than $2 billion at Daiwa Asset Management Ltd. in Hong Kong.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5 percent to 141.93 as of 7:45 p.m. in Tokyo, after earlier gaining 0.4 percent. The gauge tumbled 4.6 percent in the previous three days, and a four-day retreat will be its longest losing streak since a seven-day slide through Dec. 20. Most Asian benchmarks declined.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average was little changed at 12,992.28 after swinging between a gain of 0.9 percent and a loss of 0.8 percent, while the broader Topix fell 0.4 percent. Mitsubishi Corp., the nation's biggest trading company, rallied after prices of crude oil, gold and copper rose to highs. Pioneer Corp. surged in Tokyo on speculation the company will quit its unprofitable plasma television business.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=ax.O3TtRNBtY&refer=asia

[Ghost Dog]

22. Ambac decides not to split: report

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Ambac Financial Group Inc (ABK.N), the second biggest U.S. bond insurer, has decided against splitting in two as part of a $2 billion to $3 billion recapitalization, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday, citing insiders.

/.. http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080304/bs_nm/ambac_split_dc;_ylt=Aod2GkG5FBrB1S4A90Zzs9K573QA

[Ghost Dog]

24. Gulf investors not enough to rescue Citigroup: Dubai

DUBAI (Reuters) - Gulf investment agency Dubai International Capital (DIC) said on Tuesday it would take "a lot more money" to rescue Citigroup Inc following investments from Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia's Prince Alwaleed.

/.. http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080304/bs_nm/citigroup_gulf_dc;_ylt=Ao.Z324VZTB3iRznc6bNZRq573QA

[Ghost Dog]

25. Europe shares extend fall, techs and banks weigh

Tue Mar 4, 2008 6:45am EST
LONDON, March 4 (Reuters) - European shares fell on Tuesday, as underlying gloom over the financial sector hit banks and technology stocks slid after an overnight update from Intel (INTC.O: Quote, Profile, Research)

By 1142 GMT the FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares was down 1.2 percent at 1,283.33 points having earlier attempted a rebound after four days of losses.

Banks were the biggest weight on the index with HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research), Commerzbank (CBKG.DE: Quote, Profile, Research), and UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) down between 2.9 and 3.5 percent.

Technology stocks also fell after Intel Corp (INTC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) cut its current-quarter gross margin forecast overnight, while the industry's outlook for consumer electronics dimmed along with the economy.

Nokia (NOK1V.HE: Quote, Profile, Research) was the biggest weighted loser, down nearly 5 percent, while Alcatel Lucent (ALUA.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 3.4 percent and ASML (ASML.AS: Quote, Profile, Research) lose 3.7 percent.

Auto shares also fell, as Peugeot (PEUP.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) shed 4.3 percent after chief executive Christian Streiff said the French company now saw the European market flat, compared to expectations six months ago for a flat to higher market.

/. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL0487637820080304?rpc=611

[Ghost Dog]

90. Banks,techs push Europe stocks to fifth daily loss

FRANKFURT, March 4 (Reuters) - European shares fell for a fifth consecutive day on Tuesday as a weaker outlook from U.S. chip maker Intel (INTC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) sent technology stocks lower and concern over banks' future earnings weighed on financials.

The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index closed 1.4 percent lower at 1,279.97 points, hitting a six-week closing low. The index had started the session in positive territory, but surrendered its gains by mid-morning.

"The sentiment is still very, very bad," said Thomas Radinger, fund manager of European stock at Pioneer Investments.

"Investors use brief recoveries like we've seen for example this morning to reduce their positions," he said, adding that he didn't see any improvement in the short term.

"It'll be wait and see for now as long as there is the fear that first quarter results won't turn out as good," Radinger said.

"It is still the same old theme: uncertainty over banks' future earnings," Radinger said.

Those uncertainties were fuelled as a Merrill Lynch analyst forecast wider losses at Citigroup (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and as U.S. regulators said they were watching credit cards and commercial construction loans for signs they may be the next trouble spots.

Banking stocks were the weakest sector and the heaviest weight on the European benchmark index. The DJ Stoxx index of European banks was down 1.9 percent. HSBC (HSBA.L: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 2.7 percent, UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) was down 3.4 percent, and Societe Generale (SOGN.PA: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 3.1 percent.

...

On the upside, surging commodity prices lifted mining shares and the sector posted the strongest gains in Europe, rising 0.3 percent .

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCAL0476740920080304?rpc=611&pageNumber=3&virtualBrandChannel=0

[Ghost Dog]

26. Europe raises pressure on U.S. to halt dollar slide

BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Worried euro zone policymakers pressured on Washington on Tuesday to do more to halt the dollar's decline, a day after the U.S. currency hit a record low against Europe's single currency.

Guy Quaden, Belgium's representative at the European Central Bank, said in an interview on Belgian radio: "Things are becoming exaggerated."

"It's up to the relevant authorities to assume their responsibilities and particularly for U.S. authorities, who repeat that they are in favor of a strong dollar but who should reaffirm their words," he said.

The Europeans are worried that the slide is getting out of hand after the dollar sank below $1.50 per euro last week.

Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders, attending a second day of meetings with European colleagues on Tuesday, put it less bluntly than Quaden but the basic message was the same, that Europe was counting on active U.S. help to tackle an issue which makes life harder for euro zone exporters in world markets.

...

French Prime Minister Francois Fillon added his voice to the rising chorus of complaint, echoing similar declarations overnight at a Brussels meeting of the euro zone's finance ministers and ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet.

"There is a problem in the relationship between the dollar and the euro," he told French Europe 1 radio, saying exchange rate developments were partly to blame for the rising price of commodities, which from oil to wheat are soaring.

...

Asked whether the Eurogroup of European finance ministers had discussed the possibility that central banks might directly sell or buy currencies, Greek Finance Minister George Alogoskoufis told reporters in Brussels on Tuesday: "No, no, there was no discussion of that."

The Eurogroup, which met late on Monday in Brussels, talked at length about currency developments and agreed with Trichet to voice their mounting concern, mainly via Luxembourg prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker, chairman of the Eurogroup, a forum where ministers confer with Trichet.

"In the present circumstances we're concerned about exchange rate moves," Juncker said on Monday, adding that what he had to say was agreed by all in the Eurogroup meeting.

"We have never previously said that we were concerned on the basis of current circumstances. We don't think the recent moves are reflecting economic fundamentals," he said.

Trichet held no news conference but did his bit to suggest that there were limits to acceptable dollar weakness.

Breaking with a tradition of not commenting to the media outside formal news conferences, Trichet stopped on his way into the Eurogroup meeting on Monday to make a statement to journalists.

He stressed that Washington favored a strong dollar. But what was more unusual was that he opted to make the point on the sidelines of a meeting that he routinely enters and exits with no more than a polite hello to the media.

"In the present circumstances, I consider it very important what has been affirmed and reaffirmed by the U.S. authorities including the Secretary of the Treasury and the President of the United States, according to whom the strong-dollar policy is in the interests of the United States of America," Trichet said.

/... http://asia.news.yahoo.com/080304/3/3g3n6.html

[Ghost Dog]

28. Euro= USD 1.522, GBP 0.766, CHF 1.577 and JPY 157.1 at this time

[Demeter]

32. So, They Demand Bush Raise Taxes?

There's no other way he can possibly build strength in the dollar at this point. And since the only way to get taxes is to go where the wealth is....

[Ghost Dog]

34. Raise interest rates for a start, I guess.

ed. And raise tax rates on the rich, and on energy, and deal with offshore-headquartered corporations and...
in general, forfeit so-called growth (US aggregate consumption is way over the top) to fight inflation?

[Demeter]

37. Like That Will Happen

Nobody's lending money anyway. Which reminds me of a joke:


Lady come's into Smith's butcher shop. "Please give me 3 lbs of ground round, Smith."

"Here you go. At $3/lb, that's $9."

"I went over to Charlie's first, since he's advertising ground round at $2/lb, but he doesn't have any."

"Well, when I don't have any on hand, my price is $2/lb, too," says Smith.

[Roland99]

76. McCain's already copping Poppy's stance, "No new taxes"

Yeah, that'll fly long-term.



Idiots.

[Ghost Dog]

91. Euro= USD 1.524, GBP 0.767, CHF 1.576 and JPY 157.6 at this time

[UpInArms]

33. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 73.564 Change -0.141 (-0.18%)

Dollar - 1.50 Broken, Now What?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Dollar___1_50_Broken_Now_1204521133036.html

Next week the market will get a glimpse at the latest US ISM data from both services and manufacturing . It will be interesting to see if the decline in the dollar will have any positive impact on exporters, but as of now the consensus estimate is for the survey to slip below the 50 boom/bust line into contraction territory. The key event risk however will occur on Friday when traders see the NFPs for February. Markets are looking for a tepid albeit an improved print of 40K. However, given the very negative trend in weekly jobless claims which have averaged more that 350K for the past four weeks, a second straight month of job losses could well be the outcome. Should that occur, the dollar could tumble even more.



It finally happened. After three failed attempts over the past several months the EURUSD broke the 1.5000 barrier and barreled to 1.5200 as the case for decoupling became clearer by the day. US economic data continued to disappoint sinking to a six year low while EZ data produced mainly upside surprises. As we’ve said many times before, much to the consternation of euro bears the EZ economy is not crumbling despite disadvantageous exchange rates, high energy costs and a restrictive monetary policy.

The greenback on the other hand was further pummeled by Chairman Bernanke’s dour testimony which suggested that the Fed will continue to lower rates, irrespective of the massive inflationary risks building up within the US economy. The chairman repeatedly stressed the need for “balance” essentially telegraphing to the markets that the Fed is far more concerned with stimulating growth rather than controlling price pressures. The net effect of Dr. Bernanke’s rhetoric was more dollar liquidation as traders now fully expect a 50bp cut in March which would widen the spread between the dollar and the euro to 150bp in euro’s favor.

Next week the market will get a glimpse at the latest US ISM data from both services and manufacturing . It will be interesting to see if the decline in the dollar will have any positive impact on exporters, but as of now the consensus estimate is for the survey to slip below the 50 boom/bust line into contraction territory. The key event risk however will occur on Friday when traders see the NFPs for February. Markets are looking for a tepid albeit an improved print of 40K. However, given the very negative trend in weekly jobless claims which have averaged more that 350K for the past four weeks, a second straight month of job losses could well be the outcome. Should that occur, the dollar could tumble even more.

...more...

Should You Stay Short US Dollars?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Should_You_Stay_Short_US_1204582003678.html

It is no secret that the US dollar is weak especially since it has fallen to a new record low against the Euro and a 3 year low against the Japanese Yen today. However the EURUSD’s intraday correction has many traders wondering whether they should stay short US dollars. Fundamentally manufacturing PMI and construction spending were weak and we believe that the rest of this week’s US data should also be dollar negative. After last month’s horrid service sector ISM and non-farm payroll reports, the forecasts indicate that economists are hoping for a rebound in February that would suggest that the US economy is not doing as bad as everyone has feared. However this may be overly optimistic because on Main Street, it already feels like the US economy has fallen into a recession. The last time service sector PMI plunged to the levels that it did last month, 300k jobs were cut from US payrolls. Although we do believe that job losses will not be as severe in the month of February, we also do not believe that there will be a significant recovery. Dollar bulls have a lot more to lose than dollar bears not only with the NFP number, but also with the upcoming interest rate decisions. Six central banks are holding monetary policy meetings this week. All but one of them is expected to either leave interest rates unchanged or raise them. This will come in stark contrast with the Federal Reserve who is expected to cut interest rates by at least another 100bp before the end of the year. Fed fund futures are now pricing in a 76 percent chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 75bp rate cut on March 18 and only a 24 percent chance that they will cut them by 50bp. In addition, according to the latest commitment of traders report, the 52 week COT index has yet to reach extreme levels which mean that more selling is possible, but shorter term readings are nearing those levels. Euro positioning on the other hand does not mirror that of the dollar which suggests that the Euro could climb to 1.55. Continuation is also the signal that is flashing from our FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index, which is why anyone already short US dollars should remain short.

...more...

[medeak]

36. don't know what to do

am so liquid it's disgusting ... but scared to to euros..help!

[UpInArms]

40. it's rather a conundrum for those of us in the US

because we are in a dollar-based society. Thusly, having other than dollars in our pockets makes it hard to pay for the necessities.

If you have more than necessities require, you have the luxury (?) of determining some type of investment for what is not a "have to have" for the next five years or so.

[Roland99]

77. Hmm...I wonder. Is it possible to get, say, a European credit card?

Then everything occurs in dollars here but converts to Euros.


hmm...

[Ghost Dog]

92. Just open a European bank account with a card.

But you'll be paying a forex commission on every transaction.

ed. and Fatherland Security may pay extra attention to you...

[Roland99]

97. They're probably already monitoring all of us

;-)

[InkAddict]

55. Surfing around I found these products that looked interesting (?)

Marketsafe CD - based on metals - supposed principal-investment safe - $1,500 minimum
Worldcurrency CDs - single and mixed index - $20,000 minimum but much shorter terms available.

http://www.everbank.com/001Certificates.aspx?LinkID=Navigation

Aside from the "on-line" bank experience, what might be problematic with these?

[Ghost Dog]

50. Canadian dollar falls 50 bps after BoC rate cut

TORONTO, March 4 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar fell
against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, after the Bank of Canada
cut its key lending rate by 50 basis points to 3.50 percent.

The Canadian currency fell to around US$1.0070, valuing a
U.S. dollar at 99.30 Canadian cents, from US$1.0116, valuing a
U.S. dollar at 98.85 Canadian cents, shortly after the central
bank's announcement.

/. http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKTOR00269820080304?rpc=44

[ozymandius]

35. Staples 4Q profit dips 1 percent

FRAMINGHAM, Mass. - Staples says its fourth-quarter profit dipped 1 percent amid a tough retail environment.

The world's largest office products supplier reported Tuesday it earned $331 million, or 47 cents per share in the three months ended Feb. 2. That compares with a profit of nearly $337 million, or 46 cents per share, in the fourth quarter a year earlier.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080304/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_staples

[UpInArms]

38. GM to idle 6 plants, Axle strike impact widens

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080304/bs_nm/gm_plants_dc

DETROIT (Reuters) - General Motors Corp (GM.N) said on Monday two more assembly plants were running out of parts and would have to be idled as the impact from a week-long strike against supplier American Axle & Manufacturing (AXL.N) widened for the No. 1 U.S. automaker.

Six GM assembly plants in Michigan, Indiana, Ohio and Ontario, Canada, have either been idled or could be idled as early as Tuesday because of parts shortages, the automaker said in a statement.

The temporary factory closures mean 13,700 GM workers, or almost 20 percent of its blue-collar work force, could be laid off this week because of the strike against American Axle by the United Auto Workers union.

American Axle relies on GM for almost 80 percent of its sales and the GM plant idlings announced on Monday showed the impact of the strike-related shutdown of its U.S. plants starting to spread across the automaker's product line.

Last week, GM took steps to idle production of its GMC Sierra and Chevrolet Silverado pickup trucks at four plants.

GM said on Monday it also expected to have to idle production at a Moraine, Ohio, plant that assembles SUVs, including the Chevrolet Trailblazer and GMC Envoy.

In addition, GM said it expected a Mishawaka, Indiana, plant run by Humvee maker AM General to run out of parts for its military-inspired Hummer H2 by Tuesday.

...more...

[UpInArms]

41. Conrad Black Starts Prison Term

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/04/business/media/04black.html?ex=1362286800&en=175bba941e475426&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

COLEMAN, Fla. (AP) — The disgraced newspaper baron Conrad M. Black reported to prison Monday to begin a six-and-a-half-year sentence for swindling shareholders in his media empire.

Mr. Black turned himself in to the low-security prison in the Coleman Federal Correctional Complex in central Florida, a Federal Bureau of Prisons spokesman, Mike Truman, said.

Mr. Black and two co-defendants, John A. Boultbee and Peter Y. Atkinson, were convicted in Chicago in July of siphoning millions of dollars out of Hollinger International, which grouped many of Mr. Black’s holdings. Each was convicted on three counts of fraud, and Mr. Black also of obstruction of justice. He was ordered to pay $6.1 million in restitution.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

103. I have $5.00 that says...

Black gets himself busted out of that low-security lockup and ends up in a country with no extradition to the US.

Any takers?

[UpInArms]

43. U.S. Told to Reconsider Cuts to Housing Aid (*Co eliminates program)

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/04/business/04hud.html?ex=1362286800&en=166d5a1c2202cef5&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

A federal court in Sacramento ruled Monday that the Bush administration must reassess its plan to eliminate a down payment assistance program used by more than 100,000 low- and middle-income home buyers.

Judge Lawrence Karlton held that the Department of Housing and Urban Development failed to comply with the Administrative Procedures Act requiring “a reasoned analysis” in trying to reverse a 10-year-old federal policy. The agency must review the rule it adopted in October, the judge said, and the head of the agency, Alphonso R. Jackson, must be excluded from the discussions.

More than 100,000 consumers used the aid in 2006, and it accounted for a third of all Federal Housing Administration loans. The program lets nonprofit organizations, including the Nehemiah Corporation of America and AmeriDream Inc., finance down payments and be reimbursed by the sellers of the homes.

The administration sought to ban the aid, contending the program leads to higher housing prices and a disproportionate number of foreclosures.

...more...

[UpInArms]

45. Companies Are Piling Up Cash (while people go broke)

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/04/business/04cash.html?em&ex=1204779600&en=b63cf1c9e3a531e4&ei=5087%0A

At least someone knows how to fill a piggy bank.

Unlike most American consumers, whose failure to save has exasperated economists for years, the typical American corporation has increased its savings so sharply that it probably has enough cash on hand to completely pay off its debts.

That should be good news in an economy unsettled by rising energy prices, tightening credit, gyrating stock prices and declining values for the dollar and the family homestead. Indeed, the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, cited strong corporate balance sheets as a bright spot in the darkening forecast he presented to Congress last week.

Some analysts also speculate that these cash-rich companies may start sharing their wealth with investors through special dividends, providing welcome stimulus for the economy.

Corporate spending on equipment and other capital expenditures has declined as savings have soared, suggesting that companies could stimulate the economy now by going on a hiring and spending spree. But that raises worries among some analysts that companies will spend their cash unwisely, making them more vulnerable in the future.

The increase over the last decade in the amount of cash, as a percent of total assets, for the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has been steep. One study shows that the average cash ratio doubled from 1998 to 2004 and the median ratio more than tripled, while debt levels fell. According to S.& P., the total cash held by companies in its industrial index exceeded $600 billion in February, up from about $203 billion in 1998.



...more...

[kickysnana]

52. Didn't all those acquisitions and mergers happen to gut the assets and redistribute?

When did that game end?

[InkAddict]

62. Those mergers and acquisitions also re-distributed American human resources .

- bye-bye jobs and "consumer-friendly" customer/client service. Who says it's ended??? Perhaps it just slowed with the credit climate change.

*Edited for more to answer question.

[antigop]

80. How 'bout all those cash-rich companies sharing the wealth with the worker bees? n/t

[Ghost Dog]

93. Can't do that:

That's the only vector of inflation they do fight tooth and nail.

[DemReadingDU]

46. Healthcare fraud trial in Columbus, Ohio - Update

3/4/08 Investor details loss of millions
Government rests after 12th witness testifies

Some have called it the largest example of private fraud this country has ever seen. The government rested its case yesterday against five former executives of National Century Financial Enterprises. The defense is up next.

The prosecution is counting on the testimony of a dozen witnesses in the case sparked by the collapse of the former Dublin-based health-care-financing company.

Assistant U.S. Attorney Doug Squires concluded the government's case yesterday afternoon after a Chicago investor, Terrence Glomski, told jurors how his clients lost nearly $50 million when National Century filed for bankruptcy.

Among his clients were New York City firefighters and police pension funds that were hit a little more than a year after the Sept. 11 terrorist attack.

National Century was a health-care-financing business that purchased accounts receivable from doctors and small hospitals. Health-care providers received about 83 cents for every dollar of the accounts receivable they sold to National Century. National Century kept the difference, part as profit and part to repay investors who were funding the business model.

But investors lost more than $1.9 billion when National Century filed for bankruptcy in November 2002.

more...
http://dispatch.com/live/content/business/stories/2008/03/04/NatCen04.ART_ART_03-04-08_C10_A79HIIA.html?sid=101


link to previous articles...
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3201744&mesg_id=3201839

[DemReadingDU]

102. Judge rules against acquittal motion in National Century case

3/4/08 12:38pm

Executives standing trial for what has been called the largest case of private fraud in the nation's history began their defense Tuesday morning after losing a motion for acquittal on the argument that the government had not proven its case.

Defense attorneys had filed for a "Rule 29" acquittal for five former National Century Financial Enterprises Inc. executives standing trial on fraud and money laundering charges. Such a motion is made when the defense believes the government did not present enough evidence to convict by the time it rests its case.

The government called its last witness Monday, ending four weeks of testimony in its effort to send Rebecca Parrett, Donald Ayers, Roger Faulkenberry, Randolph Speer and James Dierker to prison for 30 years to life. Jurors heard testimony from former National Century employees William Parizek, Jon Beacham, Jessica Bily and Sherry Gibson, along with others.

U.S. District Court Judge Algenon L. Marbley denied the defense motion, saying he believed the government had presented enough evidence for a conviction. The defendants are facing charges of fraud, conspiracy and money laundering for their alleged involvement in Dublin-based National Century's nearly $3 billion collapse and bankruptcy in 2002.

National Century was a financier of last resort for health-care providers. The firm specialized in buying receivables from medical businesses at a discount, giving them cash up front so they could pay their bills. It then packaged the receivables as asset-backed bonds and sold them to investors.

Once the jury was called back in, the defense called its first witness, Robert J. De Luca, a health-care accounting expert hired by the defense at a rate of $525 per hour. De Luca gave his opinion of National Century's accounting practices.

more...
http://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/stories/2008/03/03/daily13.html

[AnneD]

51. Morning Marketeers.....

:donut: and lurkers. It is an exciting day here in Houston. We had a cold snap last night...my plants survived. But more importantly, we have great weather for voting. The DEM polling place is outside my clinic door. The GOP picked up their tent stakes and relocated. These are extra nice folks. There are political signs every where. I hope to cop a few to fashion tomato stakes from them. We also have a few folks electioneering.

The real fun will be after the voting, when the caucuses start. I went to one years ago but it was pretty cut and dry then. It will be very exciting this time. This is real democracy-it's messy, vocal and at times chaotic and confusing-but everyone that speaks up is heard. Where do these GOP ever get the idea that it is neat, orderly and sanitized-it never was and if we are true to our principals....it never will be either.

Happy hunting, watch out for the bears and vote if it's your time-make your will known.

[ozymandius]

53. Fed Chief: Mortgage Crisis to Continue

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke called Tuesday for additional action to prevent more distressed homeowners from falling into foreclosure.

"This situation calls for a vigorous response," Bernanke said in a speech to a banking group in Florida.
.....

One of the suggestions Bernanke made was for mortgage and other financial companies to reduce the amount of the loan to provide relief to a struggling owner. "Principal reductions that restore some equity for the homeowner may be a relatively more effective means of avoiding delinquency and foreclosure," Bernanke said.

With low or negative equity in their home, a stressed borrower has less ability -- because there is no home equity to tap -- and less financial incentive to try to remain in the home, he said.

Bernanke acknowledged this idea might be a tough sell to lenders. Lenders, he said, are reluctant to write down principal. "They said that if they were to write down the principal and house prices were to fall further, they could feel pressured to write down principal again," Bernanke said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080304/bernanke_mortgage_crisis.html

[InkAddict]

70. Ah, yeah...right......

Next headlines: SMALL SAVERS ADVISED TO USE PIGGY BANKS AND MATTRESSES; SANTA TO CHARGE FOR GIFT-GIVING.

Bank services and loan rates for vehicles and their repair, higher education and the book racket, and whatever else folks are buying to replace broken Chinese junk with yet more Chinese junk.

Then, TPTB will also probably give the buggers off-setting reductions and credits; the discount auctions are already doing this, no?

NO PENALTY FOR UNREGULATED GREED! Chicago Boys win it all.

[Ghost Dog]

54. FACTBOX-Tax havens of the world

March 4 (Reuters) - Germany's crackdown on secretive bank
accounts in Liechtenstein has put the spotlight on tax havens combining low
taxes, strict banking secrecy rules and an unwillingness to cooperate with other
countries.

Around 40 countries are still widely viewed as tax havens, according to
international organisations such as the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation
and Development (OECD) and the IMF.

The Tax Justice Network (TJN), an anti-tax haven lobby group, estimates that
global tax authorities miss out on around $250 billion each year because people
hold money off shore, calling that estimate "extremely conservative".

Many off-shore centres are small states, and several are dependent
territories of the United Kingdom, the United States, New Zealand or the
Netherlands.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKL0423271120080304?rpc=44

List of tax havens follows. Funny that this refers to "people" holding money offshore, without referring explicitly to the corporations which do the same on a, surely, much larger scale...

[Karenina]

66. Hmmm...

[UpInArms]

57. 9:36 EST and today's theme song is "Bye Bye Miss American Pie"

Dow 12,146.31 112.59 (0.92%)
Nasdaq 2,242.81 15.79 (0.70%)
S&P 500 1,320.25 11.09 (0.83%)
10-Yr Bond 3.537% 0.003

NYSE Volume 112,953,125
Nasdaq Volume 68,737,867.188

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -13.8. Fed Chairman Bernanke says mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures are likely to continue rising and that supply-demand imbalances suggest further price declines. Futures prices have taken a step lower.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.3. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.8. Futures prices continue to trade below fair value. A down open is still indicated, though not as low as initially shown.

08:31 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -8.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.2. Futures remain below fair value, indicating a down open, but off their lows. A head member of Dubai International Capital believes Citigroup (C) will need more capital than it has already received.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -9.0. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.8. Pessimistic comments from Intel (INTC) are weighing on futures. The company sees gross margins compressing as a result of lower NAND memory chip prices. No major economic reports are due today.

[Theres-a]

58. Ouch.

Thank you all for this thread.It has helped me in many ways to know what's going on out there. I am only able to invest in canned goods,but hey,at least I won't run out of green beans when TSHTF.

[AnneD]

73. You are exercising shrewed business sense....

the commodities in a well stocked pantry are as good as money in the bank.

[kineneb]

87. another canned-goods investor

Hi!

We cannot afford to invest in anything else... but got lots of green beans, pasta and mashed potato flakes in the pantry. I wonder what the free food give-away will have tomorrow.

Got to get going on more garden beds...just planted two more fruit trees.

[Demeter]

83. Good Theme Choice

It ain't just the music dying, either. It's the whole American Dream

[UpInArms]

60. GE CEO Immelt got 10% more compensation in 2007 - $19.6 million

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ge-ceo-immelt-got-10/story.aspx?guid=%7B8A2141F9%2D7C26%2D4BE0%2DA66C%2D9C503BE19611%7D

TEL AVIV (MarketWatch) -- The chairman and chief executive officer of General Electric Co. (GE: 33.40, +0.26, +0.8%) the Fairfield, Conn., industrial and financial-services giant, received 9.1% more cash compensation in 2007 than he did in 2006. In GE's proxy statement, filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday, the company said that Jeffrey R. Immelt, 52, who was named to the top two posts in 2001, received $9.1 million in 2007 versus $8.3 million a year earlier. His total compensation for the year was $19.6 million, up 10% from 2006. He received 150,000 performance-based units compared with 250,000 in 2006. Immelt "met or exceeded his revenue, earnings" and other targets and "productivity efforts resulted in a expansion" of 0.7 percentage point, GE said in the proxy statement. Immelt's efforts maintained GE's AAA credit rating, kept "risk at very acceptable levels," and returned more than $25 billion to holders through dividends and stock buybacks, the statement said.

[AnneD]

63. Study finds risks to China competiveness

SHANGHAI, China — China is fast losing its manufacturing competitiveness in some industries, and companies need to upgrade their operations there to stay profitable, according to a survey released Tuesday.

The study comes amid reports that thousands of manufacturers, both Chinese and foreign, are shifting operations away from coastal regions, where labor and other costs are eroding their profitability, to inland areas or other countries.

The "China Manufacturing Competitiveness" survey by the Shanghai Chamber of Commerce found that more than half of the 66 foreign-invested companies responding believe China is losing its competitive advantage over other "low cost" countries, such as Vietnam and India.

"The days of easy China manufacturing are at an end," said Ted Hornbein, chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai's Manufacturers Business Council. "You can't just view it as a workshop anymore."

more....

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/business/5590337.html

I think China is a powder keg. If things don't start loosining up a tad-that powder keg will go off. It wasn't too long ago that folks starved in that country.

[Demeter]

82. China Ought to Satisfy Some of that Home-Grown Demand

and sell domestically.

[Ghost Dog]

94. That's exactly what they're doing; raising wages (by decree) too. n/t

[0007]

64. Gasping for air

This is it!! Big time.

[AnneD]

65. Bankruptcy makes gift cards worthless

NEW YORK — You know that Sharper Image gift card you got for Christmas? Right now, it's worthless. And other gift cards in your wallet could lose their value, too.

As more retailers file for bankruptcy or go out of business, more than $75 million in gift cards are at risk of becoming worthless pieces of plastic this year.

<snip>

The Sharper Image announced late last month that it was suspending the acceptance of gift cards, at least temporarily. It urged shoppers to check the company Web site later this month for an update. That is typical of businesses that reorganize under Chapter 11 bankruptcy, which treats gift cards as a loan to the company, not as cash.

For many shoppers, it's a harsh lesson about the risks of gift cards. Consumers spent an estimated $26.3 billion in gift cards at retailers alone last holiday season, compared with $24.8 billion in 2006 and $18.48 billion in 2005, according to the National Retail Federation.

C. Britt Beemer, chairman of America's Research Group, says "you will see a lot of frustration among customers. You basically stole (money) out of the customers' pocket. They will never forgive you."

more...

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/business/5588771.html


Yet another way to screw us. Someone needs to start collecting these in book form. The Karma Sutra of Customer Business-How to Really Give Them the Business.:eyes:

[Roland99]

67. Face up to losses, Bernanke tells bankers

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/bernanke-beginning-understand-mortgage-mess/story.aspx?guid=%7BA0AF3FA8%2D7334%2D4814%2DB13A%2D81F0F0A07EFE%7D

Rather than cling to the illusion that they'll get repaid in full, banks should face up to their losses from all those bad mortgages they underwrote, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told bankers Tuesday.

It's time to take the losses onto the books, so they and the rest of the economy can move on, he said.

All the debt counseling, foreclosure freezing, HOPE alliancing, and interest-rate reducing haven't made a dent in the problem yet. So far, he said, you haven't done nothing.

Bernanke's remarks were the clearest sign yet that he's beginning to understand the full extent of the mess the banks made.

I'm actually quite surprised that he's not offering a taxpayer-funding, Federal Gov't bailout.

[Warpy]

75. Cold comfort, Benny, and the mortgages aren't the problem

The problem is that they got sold to hedge funds who chopped them into little pieces and repackaged them as "assets," something that would count on the positive side of the ledger instead of the negative side. Nobody knew exactly what they were or how to price them and they got bid out of proportion every time they changed hands, just like a shabby bungalow in Compton did when it was sold three times a year. Essentially worthless paper got pumped higher and higher and now the banks are left holding a very empty bag. So are brokerages, pensions, states, and insurance funds.

Something like $405 trillion is tied up in these exotic "investments" worldwide. It's hot air and wishful thinking, and it's starting to evaporate.

This crash is going to be a worldwide one. There isn't going to be any place to escape it. Like all crashes, it's happening from the top down, the only way "trickle down" is ever felt.

[Demeter]

81. Not Ben's Job Description To Offer Govt. Bailouts

and you know W would never, never do that....

Pretty hard to solve a mortgage crisis when it's merely the consequence of an unemployment and under-employement crisis, and we have no govt. employment policy, either, except for 3rd rate Fundie lawyers in the Dept. of Injustice....

[Roland99]

68. 10:32am - Slight recovery falters. Back under more than 100.

Dow 12,155.18 -103.72
Nasdaq 2,241.54 -17.06
S&P 500 1,321.79 -9.55
10 YR 3.57% 0.03
Oil $102.30 $-0.15
Gold $986.00 $1.80

[Roland99]

74. 11:50 - Worsening at lunch

Dow 12,112.69 -146.21
Nasdaq 2,232.11 -26.49
S&P 500 1,315.05 -16.29
10 YR 3.54% 0.00
Oil $101.15 $-1.30
Gold $975.50 $-8.70

[Roland99]

79. 12:06pm - And worserer...

Dow 12,088.18 -170.72
Nasdaq 2,231.23 -27.37
S&P 500 1,314.45 -16.89
10 YR 3.53% 0.00
Oil $100.19 $-2.26
Gold $970.50 $-13.70

[4dsc]

72. Auto sales at 1997 level's??

Just heard another talking head at CNBC state the car manufacturing CEO's are only now acknowledging that car sales are not going to rebound and may only reach 1996-1997 levels.. Auto stock of course are headed south.. GM to idle up to 7 plants..

[Delphinus]

78. This strike by

American Axle is going to help GM get their inventory back in check. I don't look for it to be a short strike.

[Demeter]

84. Fed Isn't Getting Snookered by Collateral Risk: Caroline Baum

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a9JnYZ5ynZX8&refer=columnist_baum


March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Ever since the Federal Reserve created a Term Auction Facility in December to ease the strains in the interbank-lending market, the TAF has been a source of agitation in certain conspiracy-prone circles.

The thrust of that argument goes something like this: The Fed, which is first and foremost a counterfeiter, printing money at will, is now accepting low-quality collateral as security for 28-day loans to banks whose anonymity is protected. In the process, the central bank assumes credit risk and lays it at the feet of the U.S. taxpayer.

Maybe it's time to take a look at some of the facts.

The Fed had already taken steps in August to encourage banks to borrow directly from its discount window, compressing the spread of the discount rate over the federal funds rate to 50 basis points from 100 and expanding both the type of collateral it would accept and the terms of the loans to 30 days.

No matter how nicely the Fed asked, banks were unwilling to incur the stigma associated with discount window borrowing, especially at a time when financial institutions were reporting large losses and any intimation of trouble could cause depositors to take flight.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke decided to respond to the liquidity crisis with, appropriately, added liquidity. (See ``Federal Reserve'' and ``lender of last resort.'') That didn't stop the yammering about the assumption of credit risk by the central bank.

The misinformation surrounding the TAF has reached such epic proportions, at least in my small world, that I decided to compile my own version of frequently asked questions and answers. Most of this information is publicly available on the Fed's Web site -- in excruciating detail. But hey, never let the facts get in the way of a good conspiracy theory.

Q: What is the difference between the discount window and the TAF?

A: About 50 basis points, at least at the Feb. 25 TAF auction. The minimum bid at the auction is determined by the expected fed funds rate over the term of the loan, which is 28 days.

The Fed awarded $30 billion at 3.08 percent last week. The discount rate is 3.5 percent. (That rate doesn't include the implied cost of any stigma that accrues to the borrower for going to the window.)

Q: What does a bank have to do to qualify for a loan from the Fed?

A: Banks must be in sound financial condition to be eligible for so-called primary credit. They must file the necessary documentation, as set out in Operating Circular No. 10. And they have to pledge collateral in advance of a request for a discount-window or TAF loan.

Many depository institutions regularly post collateral with the Fed in case they need backup funding when money markets are tight, loan demand spikes or depositors withdraw money unexpectedly. Since August, when the interbank market froze up, banks have increased the amount of collateral posted with the Fed.

Q: What sort of securities and loans will be accepted as collateral outside of the traditional U.S. Treasury and agency securities?

A: Corporate and municipal bonds, money-market instruments, asset-backed securities, collateralized-mortgage obligations and various consumer, commercial and industrial, agricultural, residential and commercial real-estate loans.

Q: How does the Fed determine how much to lend against the securities and loans it accepts as collateral?

A: A table of recommended margins for various types of collateral is posted on the Fed's Web site. The Fed lends only a percentage of the market value of the collateral, with the ``haircut'' ranging from 2 percent on short-term, top-quality Treasuries (in other words, the lendable value of a two-year Treasury note is 98 percent) to 40 percent for certain types of consumer loans.

Q: Some of the collateral the Fed is accepting is exactly what got the banks into trouble. Why will the Fed do a better job of managing risk when it missed the bad-loan problems at banks it regulates?

A: The discount-window officers at the 12 Federal Reserve District Banks have discretion in determining both the fair value of the collateral and the required margin.

If there is no market price for a given security and the discount-window officers and/or bank-supervisory officials at the Fed aren't confident about the value, they can impose a bigger haircut. Alternatively, they can just say no.

In the current environment, it's safe to say the Fed has been erring on the side of too much rather than too little collateral.

Q: What happens if the value of the underlying collateral takes a dive during the 28-day term of the loan?

A: The same thing that happens in the private sector: the borrower gets a margin call. If the value of the collateral deteriorates, the Fed can consider other collateral in the borrower's pool as a backstop for the outstanding loan. Or the Fed bank can immediately reduce the amount of the loan.

The only thing fixed on a TAF loan is the rate. The Fed monitors the collateral on a daily basis. Borrowers that qualified for a loan can un-qualify quickly if the collateral is inadequate.

Q: So you're saying there's nothing to worry about?

A: There's plenty to worry about, including the collapse of the housing market, early signs of decay in commercial real estate, soaring commodity prices, an over-leveraged consumer, losses and potential capital impairment at financial institutions and an economy that's flat-lining. That's enough to keep you up at night without tossing and turning over the Fed's exposure to credit risk.

(Caroline Baum, author of ``Just What I Said,'' is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are her own.)

[MilesColtrane]

85. I've got a feeling Bernanke's cueing up the theme from M*A*S*H* again.

Gotta try keep those plates spinning and that house of cards standing.

[Roland99]

86. Well, Suicide Is Painless...

[AnneD]

95. Words for thought...

Lyrics to the song 'Suicide is Painless'

Through early morning fog I see

visions of the things to be

the pains that are withheld for me

I realize and I can see...

:

that suicide is painless

It brings on many changes

and I can take or leave it if I please.

I try to find a way to make

all our little joys relate

without that ever-present hate

but now I know that it's too late, and...

<snip>
The only way to win is cheat

And lay it down before I'm beat

and to another give my seat

for that's the only painless feat.



The sword of time will pierce our skins

It doesn't hurt when it begins

But as it works its way on in

The pain grows stronger...watch it grin, but...


More.....

http://www.mash4077.co.uk/theme.html

One of my good friends in HS preformed it with an acoustic guitar. She had a great voice and it was a real show stopper, believe it or not (the VN war ended later that year).

[Roland99]

98. I used to be able to play that on the piano

[AnneD]

101. Just remember....

"Don't shoot me, I'm only the piano player" :rofl:

[ozymandius]

88. blood and eyeballs on the floor

1:47
Dow 12,066.61 Down 192.29 (1.57%)
Nasdaq 2,229.82 Down 28.78 (1.27%)
S&P 500 1,311.62 Down 19.72 (1.48%)
10-Yr Bond 3.5220% Down 0.0120
NYSE Volume 2,561,585,500
Nasdaq Volume 1,440,468,120

[ozymandius]

89. updating blather

1:30 pm : Stocks took out fresh session lows after Fed Governor Mishkin offered a pessimistic outlook on the U.S. economy. Each of the major indices has since pared a portion of its losses.

The session's negative tone remains evident as sellers outpace buyers on the NYSE by nearly 4-to-1.

Of the 30 Dow Jones members, only Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 62.49, +0.26) and Coca-Cola (KO 59.38, +0.36) are sporting gains, though muted.DJ30 -153.95 NASDAQ -24.15 SP500 -15.42 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2118/696/1.29 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2430/643/807 mln

1:00 pm : The market has made a push lower after Fed Governor Mishkin stated he sees significant downside risk to the economy. However, rate cuts and the fiscal stimulus package should improve the odds of avoiding more adverse outcomes. Mishkin also expects unemployment to rise further.

Selling pressure in the financial sector (-2.2%) has waned and energy (-2.5%) has become a more influential under-performer. Citigroup (C 21.97, -1.12) remains one of the day's primary laggards, but the stock has managed to reclaim some of its losses. Exxon Mobil (XOM 86.14, -1.61) is now the day's most influential laggard.

The utilities sector (+0.4%) continues to outperform the broader market. Of the ten major economic sectors within the S&P 500, it is the only to post a gain this session. The Dow Jones Utility Average is also trading higher (+0.4%).DJ30 -178.78 NASDAQ -28.60 SP500 -18.16 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1995/805/1.18 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2273/776/729 mln

[AnneD]

96. I think we're...

testing 12000-12100 range now. When the market crashed in the Great Depression-it kept sliding for a long time down that slippery slope-It didn't totally hurl itself off a cliff all at once. It took an initial hit-recovered a bit then slid.

[ozone_man]

99. Lower highs and lower lows.

It's never straight down.

[Roland99]

100. 3:13pm - Faeries halve the losses

Dow only down 100 (according to Google Finance)

no details otherwise. (posting from phone)

[specimenfred1984]

104. Gee willikers, the FED wouldn't try to prop this thing up would they?

I thought we had "free markets" n'stuff? Gosh, I better go find solace in my 100 year old DOW theory books so I have something to explain to all my brainwashed clients tomorrow.

Seriously, what a load. I'm counting the seconds until we finally get our country back.

[Roland99]

105. Nearly a positive 200pt swing in the last hour

The PPT is shafting shorts again. One of their stated goals, eh?

[TalkingDog]

111. The same fairy dust as last week

I saw it climb out of a hole over 100pt. deep to a positive end in just 45 minutes.

Dag! I'll take a couple of helpings of that.

Can anybody here with more of an overview guesstimate how many times they'll be able to trot that pony around the ring before it conks out?

[Pale Blue Dot]

106. You've got to be kidding me.

The Dow drops over 200 points and then it miraculously rises back to near break-even levels right before the bell with absolutely no corresponding news?? AGAIN???!!!

Is there ANYONE who can't see through this shit anymore?

:grr:

[Birthmark]

109. Investors probably just had...

...a very conveniently crisis of apphrension. No doubt that apprehension will re-appear shortly after tomorrow's opening bell. :)

[AnneD]

110. Reminds me of a joke......

St. Peter is sitting in front of the pearly gates-writing notes in his book. A guy appears in front of him. St. Peter hits the button and the pearly gates buzz open. St. Peter gets back to his work.

A few minutes later the same guy appears before St. Peter. St. Peter hits the button again and the pearly gates buzz open. St. Peter gets back to his work.

A few minutes later the same guy appears before St. Peter. Again St. Peter hits the button and the pearly gates buzz open. St. Peter gets back to his work.

After few minutes later the same guy appears before St. Peter. Annoyed St. Peter, in frustration says..."Do you want to be here or not". The guy replies, "I want to stay, but they keep resuscitating me." It's a sick Nurse joke :rofl:

[Demeter]

113. That Was Grotesque, Funny but, Grotesque!

[AnneD]

115. Hey...

I told you it was sick Nurse humour....and that was a tame one. Nurses have some of the darkest senses of humour this side of midnight. It's a coping mechanism.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

108. Hey! -45.00 ain't so bad, gang!

Chin up!

[Ghost Dog]

112. Day-traders' heaven, isn't it. Especially if you're in the know,

inside the loop-de-loop, so you can pick the exact stocks (although just an index would do) and get your timing exactly right.

And then add this factor: since about 50% of each morning's fall actually occurs 'off-market' overnight, you don't even have to make sure you sell what you bought an hour or so earlier in the last minutes of the day, oh no. If you're (like the big banks & cronies) one of the 'dark pool' playerz, you just trade on your own account driving prices up until the close. Then, inside your dark pool, off the record, you unload what you just bought (at the day's low) at the closing high price to someone else's account (managed by your bank, with or without 'chinese walls') - eg. to a pension fund or whatever. And pocket the profit.

Does this make any sense?

[Demeter]

114. Sounds Mighty Illegal

[UpInArms]

116. groundhog day closing and blather

Dow 12,213.80 45.10 (0.37%)
Nasdaq 2,260.28 1.68 (0.07%)
S&P 500 1,326.75 4.59 (0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 3.579% 0.045

NYSE Volume 4,757,185,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,692,756,500

4:30 pm : There wasn't any shortage of news on Tuesday. The problem for the stock market is that most of it seemed to skew to the negative side of things.

First and foremost, investors were rattled by accusations from the head of Dubai International Group that Citigroup (C 22.10, -0.99) will need a lot more capital from outside investors than it has already received. Citigroup's stock dropped as much as 8.0% in the wake of the accusation and weighed heavily on the financial sector along with the investment banks, which again saw another round of estimate cuts.

Separately, a warning from Intel (INTC 20.00, -0.01) that it was revising its first quarter gross margin rate guidance downward due to lower than expected NAND flash memory pricing also cast a pall on the broader market in the early going.

Selling activity intensified, though, after Fed Chairman Bernanke told the Independent Community Bankers of America that defaults and foreclosures in the housing market were likely to continue to increase. To help stem "preventable foreclosures," the Fed Chairman suggested banks consider writing down the principal amount on mortgage loans as a means of restoring equity for borrowers.

Bernanke's suggestion didn't help the financial sector as participants viewed it as a reminder that further write-downs look to be in store for the sector. Comments form a bevy of other Fed officials Tuesday, including Fed Vice Chairman Kohn, didn't do anything to lift the market's mood either.

The major indices went on to set new lows for the session around 14:00 ET. For the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P, that translated to losses of 226, 37 and 24 points, respectively.

As one can see from the final standings, those losses were pared considerably in late-afternoon trading.

Strikingly, a sell-off in commodity prices that resulted in a 1.9% decline in the CRB Index didn't act as the primary catalyst for the recovery. That honor in our estimation goes to Cisco (CSCO 24.29, -0.11) whose CEO said in a presentation that he's even more comfortable with the company's long-term guidance than he was following the last earnings conference call. Furthermore, he indicated that he believed the U.S. downturn would be short and shallow.

The comments from Cisco CEO John Chambers sparked a broad-based bargain hunting rally in the technology sector that favored a number of beaten up companies like Intel, Amazon.com (AMZN 65.34, +2.91), Microsoft (MSFT 27.59, +0.60), and Apple (AAPL 124.62, +2.89). Separately, Apple told investors that it isn't planning to start a dividend or to buy back stock right now and that it expects to hit its 10 million iPhone sales target in 2008.

Notably, the financial sector participated in the late recovery effort, also on some bargain hunting activity that kicked in after the sector came within a hair of revisiting its January low earlier in the session. In addition, the umpteenth report that an Ambac Financial (ABK 10.72, +0.78) bailout deal was near aided in the sector's recovery try. The financial sector, down as much as 3.3% earlier in the day, closed with a decline of 0.8%. DJ30 -45.10 NASDAQ +1.68 NQ100 +0.6% R2K -0.5% SP400 -0.6% SP500 -4.59 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1786/1138/2.64 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2120/1027/1.78 bln

3:30 pm : Stocks have trended higher and moved into their best levels since morning. The three major indices remain in negative territory, but the Nasdaq briefly made its way into the green.

Financials (-0.9%) have moved higher to their best level of the session as market participants await an announcement detailing a bailout plan for Ambac (ABK 10.78, +0.84).

The tech sector (+0.1%) staged an upswing of its own when Cisco's (CSCO 24.17 -0.23) CEO stated at a tech conference that he expects long-term growth to range from 12% to 17%. Tech had been down as much as 1.6%.DJ30 -94.35 NASDAQ -6.05 SP500 -8.75 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1876/1029/2.04 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2233/900/1.28 bln

3:00 pm : Stocks attempted to fight off afternoon selling pressure as the financial sector (-1.5%) was buoyed by word that Ambac (ABK 10.73, +0.79) may soon benefit from a bailout plan. CNBC reported the deal is progressing, but not complete. Uncertainty surrounding the deal caused the upswing to fade.

Crude settled $2.79 lower at $99.67 per barrel on the Nymex. The commodity had closed above the $100 per barrel mark in each of the last three sessions.

Crude's downturn undercut the energy sector (-2.5%) this session, making it one of the day's primary laggards. Exxon Mobil (XOM 86.01, -1.74) is the session's most influential laggard.DJ30 -163.72 NASDAQ -25.93 SP500 -16.62 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 2124/755/1.76 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2538/588/1.21 bln