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Hope And Change Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:26 AM
Original message
BREAKING: Obama Takes Lead in PA
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 11:26 AM by Hope And Change
Source: Public Policy Polling

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 21, 2008

INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media
inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen)

QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312

Final Pennsylvania Poll Shows Tight Race

Raleigh, N.C. – Public Policy Polling’s final survey in Pennsylvania continues to show
an extremely tight race. Barack Obama has a 49-46 lead over Hillary Clinton in the state.

This is the fourth week in a row PPP has shown the race within three points. Obama had
a three point edge last week, Clinton had the three point advantage two weeks ago, and
Obama was up two three weeks ago.

“With such a close race, the winner of the Pennsylvania primary is going to come down
to turnout,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Obama leads 58-32
in the metro Philadelphia area. If there is huge turnout there he has a chance.”

When people were initially asked who they supported in the poll Obama showed a 47-43
advantage. Undecided respondents were asked if they were leaning toward one of the
candidates and the 49-46 lead comes with those factored in.

Obama’s small lead comes from his standard coalition of men, black and younger voters.
He leads 55-34 with men and 81-12 with African Americans. He has a 50-39 edge with
voters ages 18-29 and 49-41 with those between 30-45.

Read more: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_042108.pdf
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Road Scholar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:31 AM
Response to Original message
1. K&R nt
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Buzz Clik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:31 AM
Response to Original message
2. I'm not convinced.
I'm still going with the roughly 8% Clinton victory.
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mikelgb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:38 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. yeah... this is the pwerfect opportunity for that "not this shit again" graphic
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 05:06 PM
Response to Reply #3
73. Here you go
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EFerrari Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:46 AM
Response to Reply #2
6. That's my guess, too. The problem is, with the systems they have
in PA, we're looking at mostly faith-based voting. PA is where those precincts were that had HUGE undercounts in the 2004 presidential race. In other words, 70% of a precinct's Dem voters went to all the trouble of voting for dogcatcher and school crossing guard but didn't cast a vote in the presidential race. And, the undervotes seemed to only happen on Dem ballots . . .,
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:44 PM
Response to Reply #6
66. that's a HUGE concern of mine.
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digidigido Donating Member (553 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 07:50 PM
Response to Reply #66
88. Mine too, this is where we find out how tough he is, can he take a rabbit punch?
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Catherina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:24 PM
Original message
I think he'll beat her
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 01:24 PM by Catherina
but then again, I'm the optimistic type. Even if he loses PA, he's still the overall winner.
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Buzz Clik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:29 PM
Response to Original message
25. If he wins, it will be party time.
:party: :toast:

I toss back the first one in your honor.
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DesertFlower Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:54 PM
Response to Reply #25
33. OMG. i don't drink, but
i'll toss one back too. :toast:
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Catherina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:37 PM
Response to Reply #25
45. I'm acting very cool at work today
but I'm biting my nails in suspense. I can't think about it much but if he does win, I'll be out celebrating and one will be for you! :toast:
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Cant trust em Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:14 PM
Response to Reply #45
57. Tomorrow is going to be rough
fortunately I'm on the west coast so the polls close at 5 pdt and I don't have to wait until 8.
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Catherina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:24 PM
Response to Reply #57
62. Me too but that's no big comfort
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 04:24 PM by Catherina
That still leaves 9 good hours to destroy the old fingernails and walk around not paying attention to work because your mind is in PA.

I think I may take a halfday off and sit in front of the TV with a bottle of wine. :toast: to change
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goclark Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 05:30 AM
Response to Reply #62
106. West Coast checking in ~ I'll have my portable radio ~what channel
will have the results?

Air America doesn't do it right?
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Hayduke Lives Donating Member (102 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:46 PM
Response to Reply #25
67. I'm going to see him tonight
...I'm doing a preemptive strike on the celebratory beer.
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 06:58 PM
Response to Reply #67
85. lucky dog
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Voice for Peace Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:28 PM
Response to Original message
43. I'll go with your optimism...
and also agree with your 'even if' -- because I believe the bitter people can think for themselves


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Catherina Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:40 PM
Response to Reply #43
46. I think that's the whole problem with the bitter people
thinking for ourselves ;)

I'm going to be very nervous tomorrow. I want this to end so we can concentrate on bigger things like working to convince Republicans and Independents sitting on the fence that Obama is a smarter choice than McCain.
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evolvingsteve Donating Member (130 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:03 PM
Response to Original message
93. thumbs up...
....for optimism! :thumbsup: :thumbsup:


I'm very much an optimist and I feel the same as you.
peace :hippie:
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backscatter712 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:24 PM
Response to Reply #2
23. The polls are going crazy right now.
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 01:26 PM by backscatter712
One says Clinton by 11, another says Obama by 3. They're way all over the place.

Anyways, as they say, hope for the best, plan for the worst.

Worst case scenario that I find plausible is Clinton winning by 15. Considering that even that margin of victory is not going to close the delegate gap by a meaningful number, and that at best, that scenario will extend the race by a few more weeks, but still end with Obama as the nominee, I can deal with that.

But hey, if we can pull off an Obama victory and end it tomorrow, that would be awesome!
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helderheid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:43 PM
Response to Reply #2
65. I agree. This is the ONLY poll with him ahead.
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YOY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 05:08 PM
Response to Reply #2
74. Me neither
That would imply someonel leaking some of the fanaticism out of Clinton's baloon.

Not seeing too much of it.
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YOY Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 05:08 PM
Response to Reply #2
75. Me neither
That would imply someonel leaking some of the fanaticism out of Clinton's baloon.

Not seeing too much of it.
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pinkpops Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 06:16 PM
Response to Reply #2
79. I agree but -- and this is a serious question because I don't remember -
Was it New Hampshire where Obama was polling way ahead of Clinton but the results were opposite? When Clinton had the crying incident.
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Jim__ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:39 AM
Response to Original message
4. If, according to this pollster, Obama had a 3 point lead last week,
and he has a 3 point lead this week, how has he "taken" the lead?
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deadmessengers Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:45 AM
Response to Original message
5. The polls are crap
This weekend I saw a post on Saturday that said that Obama was up by 19 nationwide, and saw another one Sunday that had Clinton up by 2 nationwide.

What this means to me is that the polls aren't worth shit. Want a poll? Here you go: The Deadmessengers poll of one registered (in Georgia) voter has Clinton winning PA by 8%.
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Buzz Clik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:56 AM
Response to Reply #5
9. Your poll likely has a huge margin of error.
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Voice for Peace Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:30 PM
Response to Reply #5
44. Another poll of one person here says Obama wins by 1 point
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Laura PourMeADrink Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 07:01 PM
Response to Reply #5
87. Ah...what
better way to steal an election (not talking our dem primary ! ).

Invalidate the polls - 'then by God, those people won't have any benchmark
whatsoever to compare "results" to.'
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wildbilln864 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:50 AM
Response to Original message
7. Go Obama Go!
:bounce:
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RebelOne Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:55 AM
Response to Original message
8. Drudge Report says that Clinton has an 11 point lead.
CLINTON INTERNALS SHOW 11-POINT LEAD IN PA
Mon Apr 21 2008 11:10:14 ET

**Exclusive**

Controlled excitement is building inside of Clinton's inner circle as closely guarded internal polling shows the former first lady with an 11-point lead in Pennsylvania!

Clinton is polling near to nearly 2 to 1 over Obama in many regions of the state, a top insider explained to the DRUDGE REPORT.

A strong coalition of middle-class and religious voters has all but secured a Clinton victory Tuesday, with headline-making margins, the campaign believes.

"It's not a matter of if, it's a matter of how much," a senior campaign source said Monday morning.

When pressed if the dramatic internal polling numbers could somehow be flawed in a state as demographically complex as Pennsylvania, and with new voter registration surging to unseen levels, the campaign insider held firm.

"Senator Obama would be wise not to unpack his bags quite yet."

MORE

With less than 24 hours to go until the beginning of the end of primary season voting, Obama has handedly captured Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, but has failed to dominate suburban sprawl, the campaign's polling reveals.

An 11-point victory in Pennsylvania for Clinton would expand on margins scored in Ohio.

Clinton will quickly move to feverishly focus on Indiana starting Tuesday night, hoping to somehow convince superdelegates that she not only has superior stamina but has crucial swing state appeal.

Without superdelegate intervention, Clinton still faces impossible math to nomination.

Developing...

www.drudgereport.com/flashpa.htm
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Buzz Clik Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:57 AM
Response to Reply #8
10. From Hillary's lips to Matt's front page.
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pnorman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:43 PM
Response to Reply #10
48. "front page"?????
Was that a euphemism? --- A delicate reference to a portion of Drudge's anatomy? It's pretty obvious that O'Bama scares the living SHIY out of those RW flunkies. They do NOT want to see a Democratic candidate who's likely to win this year. Too much is "at stake". So think of Hillary as "The Great White Hope" of the Rovian crowd.

pnorman
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Windy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 12:04 PM
Response to Reply #8
11. A read a post on kos that the Clinton camp has denied that this internal polling took place.... nt
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underpants Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:17 PM
Response to Reply #8
18. Not too closely guarded huh?
:eyes:
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mod mom Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:06 PM
Response to Reply #8
34. Drudge quoting internals aka Mark Penn's polling.
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Prophet 451 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:17 PM
Response to Reply #8
38. The Drudge Report?!?!?!
Since when do people on DU pay attention to the fucking Drudge Report?
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Nightjock Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 03:22 PM
Response to Reply #38
53. Up is down
and down is up lately at DU. What surprised me even more is how a handful of folks now think Kieth Olberman is a lying sack of s*** because he is just telling the truth. It's amazing (in a deppressing way.)
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RoccoR5955 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 06:43 PM
Response to Reply #38
83. They should call the Drudge Report, the Dredge Report because...
...they report whatever they can dredge up from the bottom. Most of the times it's garbage, but once in a blue moon, in may be okay. I still think that the race is too close, but if Obama should win tomorrow, Clinton should just concede to Obama. It would be the best thing to do for the party. If Clinton should win the popular vote, and by some miracle win by a large margin, all bets are off...

Oh, and I am going to 'toss one back' just because it's Monday, and I simply cannot stand Mondays, even though I was born on one!
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cui bono Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:17 PM
Response to Reply #8
59. That "swing state appeal" is an empty argument.

But of course that means nothing to the desperate Clinton campaign.

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PufPuf23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:52 PM
Response to Reply #8
68. "A strong coalition of middle-class and religious voters has all
but secured a Clinton victory Tuesday" sounds more like a planted idea in the media to influence voters before the primary in two large and swing voter demographics than the result of a scientific poll. Thanks Drudge. lolol
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Mz Pip Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 12:05 PM
Response to Original message
12. Wednesday
can't come soon enough. I have no clue as to how PA will dust out. We shall see.
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Lucinda Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 12:33 PM
Response to Original message
13. 10% undecided is a pretty big percentage.
If accurate, the final numbers will depend on where they break.
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greiner3 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 12:48 PM
Response to Original message
14. Here's Accuweather's take on Philly's weather tomorrow;

Tuesday, Apr 22
Day
High: 68°F RealFeel®: 68°F
Intervals of clouds and sun
View the Hour-by-Hour Forecast
Winds: E at 10mph
Wind Gusts: 14 mph
Max UV Index: Moderate (5)
Thunderstorm Probability: 1%
Amount of Precipitation: 0.00in
Amount of Rain: 0.00in
Amount of Snow: 0.0in
Hours of Precipitation: 0 Hrs
Hours of Rain: 0 Hrs
Hours of Daylight: 13.6 Hrs

Upper 60's and partly sunny. No excuse not to vote!
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SlingBlade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:09 PM
Response to Original message
15. I think I hear that Liberty Bell ringing
It's saying, Go Barrack Go :)
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:10 PM
Response to Original message
16. OMG!!! It hope that's not too good to be true.
K&R
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sasquatch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:11 PM
Response to Original message
17. He might actually beat her!
:wow:
This is incredible considering she was up by 20 percent a month ago.
:thumbsup:
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RufusTFirefly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 12:44 AM
Response to Reply #17
98. Exactly! It's all about managing expectations
Many have forgotten that Clinton was supposed to take Pennsylvania in a Wolfowitz-style cakewalk. Obama may yet win, but if he manages to come within 10 percent of Clinton it'll be a big win for him and a big loss for Clinton. Don't let the spin turn a narrow Clinton victory into bad news for Obama. He's already beating the odds.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:19 PM
Response to Original message
19. Outlier. The three other polls out today have him down by 7, 6, and 10
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Capn Sunshine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 03:38 PM
Response to Reply #19
54. However, this Polling Organization has a great track record
Should Obama win PA tomorrow I'll be curious to hear the spin from Clinton's campaign. I guarantee you that it will not be a withdrawal speech.
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The_Casual_Observer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:20 PM
Response to Original message
20. He was ahead in California too.
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psquare Donating Member (76 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:35 PM
Response to Reply #20
27. Obama actually won the election-day polling in CA,
it was the VBM (Voting By Mail) that pulled out the W for Hillary.
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ourbluenation Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:16 PM
Response to Reply #27
58. I voted for edwards by mail in ca, 2 days before he pulled out of the race
I would have voted for Obama...wonder how many more like me there were?
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eridani Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 12:26 AM
Response to Reply #58
97. In our "undemocratic" caucus states, you could have n/t
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asthmaticeog Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:23 PM
Response to Original message
21. It would be nice, but it seems unlikely, and the only poll that matters is tomorrow. nt
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ClayZ Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:23 PM
Response to Original message
22. I believe! Obama/44
K and R
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99th_Monkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:28 PM
Response to Original message
24. Sweet!! BObama! Either way, it looks close, which is good for Obama ~nt~
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liberal N proud Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:32 PM
Response to Original message
26. Funny: Obama predicts Clinton win in Pennsylvania
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godai Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:41 PM
Response to Reply #26
29. Lowering expectations
An Obama win tomorrow ends the nomination process. It would be followed by Obama wins in Indiana and NC, and the Clinton campaign is out of $$.
I expect a Clinton majority tomorrow, by less than 10 points, something like 54-46. If female turnout is heavy, the margin will be bigger. Hillary has been getting up to 60% of the female vote. Time for more men to take some time to vote!
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Lannigan Donating Member (141 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:40 PM
Response to Reply #29
47. There are more men than women
according to population statistics. If more women voted, your candidate would be in big trouble.
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Citizen_Penn Donating Member (359 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:13 PM
Response to Reply #47
56. A larger percentage of the women I know
VOTED for Obama in Texas.

I think it boils down to the person, not their gender.


But, I agree, I know several women who are voting simply because of gender.

Appalling, IMO.
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FVZA_Colonel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 01:05 AM
Response to Reply #47
99. Why would they necessarily vote for Clinton?
eom.
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DrDebug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 02:34 AM
Response to Reply #47
101. Actually, there are more women than men
The birth rate of boys is higher, however men tend to drop off earlier.

2007 estimation according to the CIA World Factbook:

0–19 years: 27.4% (male 42,667,761; female 40,328,895)
20–64 years: 60.1% (male 89,881,041; female 90,813,578)
65 years and over: 12.6% (male 15,858,477; female 21,991,195)

Total: male: 148,407,279; female: 153,133,668

So not only are there more women, there are far more women of voting age. Maybe all those women prefer Obama because of content...
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Lannigan Donating Member (141 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 02:34 PM
Response to Reply #101
121. OMG I can't believe that typo I did...
...sorry, was typing between working yesterday!!!

Thanks for the stats.
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CANDO Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 03:51 PM
Response to Reply #29
55. My wife and my father's wife are voting for Obama
My father's wife is technically my stepmother, but they were married when I was an adult, so she's just my father's wife to me. Anyway, I don't buy into Hillary locking up the female vote in PA. I know too many women who resent her acting like it was hers for a coronation.
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lonestarnot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:41 PM
Response to Original message
28. Yeah.
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totodeinhere Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:43 PM
Response to Original message
30. Whether Obama wins outright or not,
it's looking more and more like Clinton is not going to get the blowout win that she desperately needs.
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racaulk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:45 PM
Response to Original message
31. Here are 8 other polls that show Clinton is in the lead in PA.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

I would agree that Obama has gone far in chipping away at the lead that Clinton had in Pennsylvania (she had a consistent double-digit lead earlier in the year), but we should be careful at considering the results of a single poll. The fact that the results of this single poll show him with a 3% lead (when the MOE is +/- 2%) is neither "breaking news" nor is it substantial proof that Obama has taken the lead in that state.
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Lasher Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 03:11 PM
Response to Reply #31
51. You beat me to it.
The RCP average puts Hillary ahead 5.9%. It's still good news for Obama if he loses by no more than 7%.

BTW, did you notice RCP average currently shows Junior with a job approval of 30.2%, even with the almost-alwyas high Rasmussen included? There was a total of three 28% results in this recent sampling!
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FVZA_Colonel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 01:06 AM
Response to Reply #31
100. I agree; he has made impressive gains, but
in all liklihood she will take the state (though I do doubt it will be a blowout).
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FreeStateofWinston Donating Member (34 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 01:52 PM
Response to Original message
32. Remember the Beatles Tune...
Let It Be ? Well please Let It Be that this poll is accurate, so we can finally put an end to Mrs. Hillary's all out assault on the inevitable Democratic nominee.

:patriot:
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Bette Noir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:08 PM
Response to Original message
35. The important poll
is the one that will be taken tomorrow.
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sellitman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:08 PM
Response to Original message
36. I"ll take close.
I doubt it though. I see Hillary with a 7-11% win. Wish it were less.
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Pappy Donating Member (113 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:09 PM
Response to Original message
37. Cool, Obama will bring about real change, go OBAMA!
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npincus Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:17 PM
Response to Original message
39. only one poll- lets not get ahead of ourselves.
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happygoluckytoyou Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:21 PM
Response to Original message
40. IN A RELATED STORY---->
TO COUNTER HILLARY'S FATHER BEING BURIED IN SCRANTON, OBAMA SUPPORTERS WERE SEEN BURYING OBAMA'S AUNT JENNIFER IN PHILLY. DISPITE EARLY CRIES FOR MERCY, AND ONE ATTEMPT TO SPRING OUT OF THE COFFIN, THEY FINALLY GOT HER BURIED.

A RELATED STORY FROM JOHN "THE RPUBLICAN" MCCAIN, HE HAS VOLUNTEERED TO BE BURIED IN PITTSBURG JUST AS SOON AS HIS PACEMAKER STALLS OUT.
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liberaldem4ever Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:22 PM
Response to Original message
41. That would be great K&R
:kick:
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Algorem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:23 PM
Response to Original message
42. latest breaking bullshit
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natrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 02:50 PM
Response to Original message
49. ok get ready for obama +5 at the end followed by exit polls dont matter then clinton +13
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FOS Donating Member (35 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 03:01 PM
Response to Original message
50. Whatever Happens Tomorrow......
Barack Obama has the Democratic Nomination. So, I'm happy regardless.

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madrchsod Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 03:19 PM
Response to Original message
52. 2300 is a good sampling size
2% margin of error..i`m still going with hillary winning by 6 or under..it`s not going to be enough for her to claim a blow-out.

worse-she`s broke.
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Bucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 05:30 PM
Response to Reply #52
78. Actually, any increase in sampling size over 800 isn't going to yield much better results.
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 05:31 PM by Bucky
Sampling 2300 households starts to build in the question of "sampling bias", or the tendancy of some market segments to just be more accessible to telephone interception than other market segments. Think about it this way, if you survey 50% of the market, then the half you're not sampling becomes increasingly likely to not be interviewed because of some non-random, possibly some determinative factor--like maybe Clinton voters are less likely to agree to surveys or are maybe less likely to still be awake after 8pm when some of the prime polling data is collected.
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JMDEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:19 PM
Response to Original message
60. This election worries me
It is being carried out largely on highly suspicious electronic machines with no paper trail whatsoever. There has been ample smokescreens thrown up to "explain" unexpected results.

Hillary by 25%? Poor debate performance by Obama, and/or "bittergate" and/or American flag lapel pins and/or many polls all over the map.

All of Hillary's scumbag right-wing pseudo-supporters would be more than willing to throw this election -- they desperately want to face her, not Obama, in the GE.

Hillary could flat-out steal this election big-time and there would be NO way to prove it. I guess the only hope would be some pretty thorough exit polling.
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crankychatter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:30 PM
Response to Reply #60
63. have you noticed this year that MSM exit polls now only report Demographics
but not totals?

tha'z how we busted them in 04

now they're backing off.

also... the polls are all over the map... and the Zogby NH and California "errors" have been touted to implicitly call poll accuracy into question

Greg Palast is secretly lurking in PA... got that from his website

some PAers have said that they do have a paper receipt system in urban areas... from what I've read these are little add ons from the manufacturer, that perform poorly
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UndertheOcean Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:20 PM
Response to Original message
61. Yes
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rniel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:33 PM
Response to Original message
64. I'm sure he has but
Watch those e-voting machines.
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Carrieyazel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:54 PM
Response to Original message
69. What the hell is Public Policy Polling? Are they trying to be like Newsweak?
With laughable, bogus polls that are so way off the mark, it looks like a group of 6th graders conducted the poll?
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dbmk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 03:01 AM
Response to Reply #69
103. Well...
You sound like the other pollsters and pundits when PPP called Wisconsin +10 and +13 for Obama. And I can sort of understand why. It does seem off the mark.

But they have quite consistently been on the money and they usually have large samples.

This is NOT the pollster I would bet against based on their track record in this race.
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slackmaster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:55 PM
Response to Original message
70. Only on DU does a fricking poll result qualify as Late Breaking News
:eyes:
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Rosa Luxemburg Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 04:55 PM
Response to Original message
71. the majority of polls show a slim lead for Clinton
tomorrow is another day
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Az_lefty Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 05:02 PM
Response to Original message
72. if Obama holds Clinton to single digit victory it's a big victory for him
PA's always been Hillary's to lose.
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willy133 Donating Member (15 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 05:26 PM
Response to Reply #72
76. That's right... most clinton supporters
have been reducing the points by which she has to win, compared to the 20+ lead she had a month ago. As much as I want to believe Obama might win tomorrow, I will say that Clinton will win by 10-15, anything less and it's an Obama win.
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Bucky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 05:26 PM
Response to Original message
77. with so many new voters coming in, survey sampling is a real roll of the dice
I'd like to believe it, but Clinton consistantly exceeds last-day sampling in her final turn outs. Rule of thumb is that you take the average of the last three days' pollings, then add 5% to Clinton's final.

If Obama pulls within 8 points of Clinton in the final polling (ie, 54%-46%), it's a moral victory. I can't be the only one concerned that the politics of personal destruction is every bit as effective a train stopper as it was in 1998.
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BlueIdaho Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 06:17 PM
Response to Original message
80. Don't see it happening - its Clinton by 6-10. nt.
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McCamy Taylor Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 06:34 PM
Response to Original message
81. This poll does not sound right. Is Obama planning to cry "e-vote fraud" tomorrow like after NH?
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cornermouse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 06:42 PM
Response to Original message
82. What an odd thing to say. Did they vote today?
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 06:43 PM by cornermouse
:sarcasm: (Since you don't have a dry ironic smilie...)
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Clear Blue Sky Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 06:49 PM
Response to Original message
84. These polls are all over the map.
Only one more day. Wait for the real poll...
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kwenu Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 07:00 PM
Response to Original message
86. Anything less than 15pts would be a crushing defeat for the Woman from Scranton!!!!
Edited on Mon Apr-21-08 07:03 PM by kwenu
Scranton is her hometown, of the moment, so there is no excuse for a less than 15 pt win for Hillary.


GOBAMA!!!!!
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Imalittleteapot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 08:48 PM
Response to Original message
89. bush doesn't pay attention to the polls
I don't either, but I sure like this one.
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Khaotic Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:32 PM
Response to Original message
90. Obama 49-46 over Clinton in PA
Woot!!!!!

Maybe I was wrong.

Didn't think Appalachia would vote for Obama.

Looks like they're proving me wrong.

Props from Iowa to the heart of Appalachia in PA!!!!

GOBAMA!!!!
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aaronbees Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:43 PM
Response to Original message
91. I'll jump for joy if he wins
But I just want it to be close!

Come on, good people of Pennsylvania!
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LaStrega Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 09:58 PM
Response to Original message
92. "...the Pennsylvania primary is going to come down to turnout..."
And just look at the numbers that turn out for his speaches!

GObama! :woohoo:
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Infinite Hope Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 10:11 PM
Response to Original message
94. Hillary has made herself ugly and that could suppress her own turnout. A surprise could be in store.
n/t
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Jim Sagle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:30 PM
Response to Original message
95. Whadda crocka chickenshit bullshit.
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candice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-21-08 11:41 PM
Response to Original message
96. Don't bother to vote, Obamabots! It's in the tank for him already...
...just like the media. If spending three-to-one while having the media slobber over him doesn't give him a double-digit lead, be very afraid of such a candidate in the General Election.

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guyanakoolaid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 03:37 AM
Response to Reply #96
104. It's hillaryous Clinton supporters keep pushing the "outspent" angle...
since Hillary has taken in every lobbyist and PAC dollar she could get, more than any other candidate. Meanwhile, Obama has refused PAC and lobbyist money, and picked up enough small donations to be able to outspend the lobbyist darling Hillary 3 to 1.

This is not a plus in any way for the Clinton campaign, or its lobbyist paymasters.
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TankLV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 09:54 AM
Response to Reply #104
113. whistling past the grave yard, I see. I says a lot when, just like the REPUKES
barack HUSSEIN obama throws TONS of money at the effort, and STILL comes up short...

If it were Hillary having these results, you'd be screaming about it instead of trying to look the other way...

He's already lost the GBLT community...he can't win the general.

Period.
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guyanakoolaid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 04:07 PM
Response to Reply #113
122. "Coming up short" is a theme the Clinton campaign better start getting used to
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MJJP21 Donating Member (262 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 04:45 AM
Response to Reply #96
105. spending
"just like the media. If spending three-to-one while having the media slobber over him doesn't give him a double-digit lead, be very afraid of such a candidate in the General Election."
==========
Give me a break! He came from a 20% deficit to be in some polls the favorite. It sounds like money well spent and all he has to do is get 38% of the vote to keep Hillarys head under water.
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dbmk Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 02:57 AM
Response to Original message
102. PPP are good.
They have probably been the ones with the most precise results overall.

The ONLY pollster to call Wisconsin right.

And they have had a +/- 3 spread for a _month_ now.

It looks and smells like an outlier looking at the other polls. But don't discount this fully.

For a more detailed analysis on the contest:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5608247&mesg_id=5608247
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MrSlayer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 05:52 AM
Response to Original message
107. I get to vote in 9 minutes.
Turnout is going to be huge in Philly.
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beezlebum Donating Member (927 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 08:08 AM
Response to Original message
108. the top featured story on
Edited on Tue Apr-22-08 08:30 AM by beezlebum
yahoo:
"Do-or-Die Day for Clinton:
As Pennsylvania heads to the polls, Clinton needs not only to win, but to win big"
http://news.yahoo.com/s/csm/20080422/ts_csm/awinbig

it also features a clip of obama on the daily show.

i rly wanna believe that ppp, but i honestly don't expect obama to win.

i can't believe clinton is still even slightly ahead in any poll. how anyone who is actually paying attention could actually support her is beyond me, but i guess there are still die-hard bushies...:shrug:

seems like i've been waiting for PA for so long. if i didn't have to go to the office today i'd be GLUED to the computer...GOBAMA

on edit: top featured story no longer. lasted longer than i'd a thunk it would. not even a hint of it.
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Tarc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 08:45 AM
Response to Reply #108
109. The same goes for how other feel about the Obamaniacs, kiddo
How anyone could still support this condescending elitist who spent 20 years fawning at the feet of a bible-thumping bigot is beyond me.

Polls are funny things though, and it is amusing to see the little O-Bots cherry-pick one poll and tout it as the GREATEST NEWS EVER, when all it shows is a statistical tie. Most toher places, such as

http://www.thetimes-tribune.com/site/news.cfm?newsid=19502707&BRD=2185&PAG=461&dept_id=614635&rfi=6

show Clinton with a consistent and steady lead in PA.
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beezlebum Donating Member (927 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 09:17 AM
Response to Reply #109
111. not with the bible-thumping bigot bs again
Edited on Tue Apr-22-08 09:22 AM by beezlebum
give me a fucking break. you lost any and all credibility right there. of course, the elitist bullshit didn't grab at me so well either.

it is quite one thing to have a "controversial" pastor (who by the way i happen to agree with, "kiddo"), it's QUITE ANOTHER to threaten nuclear holocaust when iran doesn't even have nukes.

i haven't been the most enthusiastic obama supporter. i like him more than i did in the beginning, and even a month ago. he'll do, for this kucinichian. at least he wouldn't depress me to death- one thing is for damned sure- i prefer his "bigoted" pastor to her bushesque sabre-rattling, and there he beats her by a long shot.

in case you didn't read my context, as you obviously didn't with wright or "bittergate," i said i don't buy that poll- i want to but don't. i'm sure she will "win" PA.
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TankLV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 09:57 AM
Response to Reply #111
114. Not BS - it's INEXCUSABLE and INDEFENSIBLE...
and yet some IDIOTS still continue to TRY to defend that ASSHOLE BIGOTED "preacher"...!!!

Disgusting...

combined with Donnie and all the other INDEFENSIBLE and INEXCUSABLE and REPREHENSIBLE associations and actions by this charlatan, it's a disturbing, PURPOSEFUL PATTERN...
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beezlebum Donating Member (927 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 10:56 AM
Response to Reply #114
116. surely you jest
Edited on Tue Apr-22-08 11:02 AM by beezlebum
i can not believe ANYONE who calls him/herself "progressive" would actually look at wright's speech in full context and call it "bigoted."

i thought the fauxtrage over wright had already been proven to be desperate, obfuscated, RIGHT WING GARBAGE.
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darue Donating Member (383 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 03:06 AM
Response to Reply #114
127. we never get to hear from hillary's preacher though... or the mad mc-cain's...
Edited on Wed Apr-23-08 03:07 AM by darue
and I guarantee you I can be just as offended by whoever mccain's 'preacher' might be if he 'has/had' one.
and who is that anyway?
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Zambero Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 09:33 AM
Response to Reply #109
112. Elitist?
Edited on Tue Apr-22-08 09:35 AM by Zambero
Raised by a single Mom on food stamps & now running against a dynasty that's amassed a $109 million fortune since Bill left office? I think you have labelled the wrong candidate. As for Rev. Wright, if you took the time to watch his sermons in their entirety, rather than spout Sean Hannity talking points based on calculated sound byte edits, you might realize a truer context and find yourself in agreement with what he's saying. If not, you need to own up to your latent conservatism and start volunteering for John McCain's crusade to continue the Bush agenda.
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Tarc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 10:59 AM
Response to Reply #112
117. Cry me a river
I do not agree with Rev. Wright, or his message, or his racist attitudes and ploys. That doesn't make me or anyone else that condemns that asshole a conservative, dimwit.
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beezlebum Donating Member (927 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 11:07 AM
Response to Reply #117
118. rather than posting "wright is a bigot!!1!"
why don't you offer some insight, unless you're going continue to work by fox news standards.

during that whole bullshit "scandal," i could not find a single coherent collection of thoughts on WHY HOW and WHAT ABOUT wright's speech was "bigoted," and still have yet to. all i get is "he's racist against teh white ppl!!1!"

and it DOES make you at least alligned with "conservative" dimwits, "dimwit."
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Tarc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 11:15 AM
Response to Reply #118
119. I am not "aligned" with conservatives
Edited on Tue Apr-22-08 11:17 AM by Tarc
This is the oldest, most logically flawed, and most pathetic argument in the schoolyard of the DU; point out how one's opponent has an opinion that is similar to some big bugaboo...whether it is Communists, Republicans, Nazis, whatever...and attempt to link the opponent to that "bad" group.

Unfortunately for you and your feeble arguments, you'll find that most around here are a bit too smart to fall for your bull shit.

Welcome to the Ignore list, twit.
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beezlebum Donating Member (927 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 11:46 AM
Response to Reply #119
120. well you were already on mine! i took you off just to reply
Edited on Tue Apr-22-08 11:52 AM by beezlebum
to you, "twit!" now back to it you go!

(third name you've spouted ad hom., and YOU started it, "schoolyard" bully!)

and yes it is- you are using the same NON-argument (still, i beg you- where the eff IS your coherent assessment on how wright is a bigot? still waiting...) as sean hannity. aligning yourself w/ conservative "twits," twit.
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TankLV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:21 AM
Response to Reply #118
132. another one trying to defend that ASSHOLE BIGOTED "preacher"...
wow...
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TankLV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:20 AM
Response to Reply #112
131. wow - STILL trying to defend that ASSHOLE BIGOTED preacher?!?!
wow...
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SleeplessinSoCal Donating Member (710 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 12:50 AM
Response to Reply #109
125. Do these polls reflect the Limbaugh effect?
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Javaman Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 09:14 AM
Response to Original message
110. Oh the monkey poop fight in GDP today will be epic! lol
:popcorn:
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bdamomma Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 10:00 AM
Response to Original message
115. good for Obama.
Edited on Tue Apr-22-08 10:04 AM by alyce douglas
:thumbsup:
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tidy_bowl Donating Member (249 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Apr-22-08 10:17 PM
Response to Original message
123. Hillary - Night of the living dead. nt
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xioaping Donating Member (202 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 12:38 AM
Response to Reply #123
124. I love it. Night of the living dead
She just won one battle in a losing war and everyone is supposed to think it is a real victory.
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question everything Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 01:07 AM
Response to Original message
126. Don't you feel stupid now?
and if something like that gets 70 recommendations, than the whole recommendation system is nothing more than a beauty contest.
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humbled_opinion Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 03:23 AM
Response to Reply #126
128. I do and I am also starting to think that
Barack will lose in the General for exactly the same reasons that Hillary won in PA tonight. There is a group of Democrats that are bigots, that group is the under educated White middle class blue collar men in the suburbs of Philly and Pittsburg, those people will never vote for Barack so they are lost to McCain in the General... sucks that people would simply vote based on the color of a persons skin..... but then again Barack does seem to pull 90 percent of the Black vote so who knows.... I really hate all this indecsion.
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Lady President Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:49 AM
Response to Reply #128
129. A little advice
Before you start calling large groups of people "under educated", you might want to quickly proofread your own post. The home of the Steelers is PittsburgH, indecIsion has an I, and I won't even start on your grammar.

Maybe "the under educated White middle class blue collar men" don't want to vote for Obama because they feel insulted by his supporters? Maybe they just like Clinton better?
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Seeking Serenity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 01:06 PM
Response to Reply #129
134. Don't forget that "under educated," "middle class," and "blue collar" need hyphens
since they are being used as compound modifiers, and some commas among those adjectives are definitely warranted ("under-educated, white, middle-class, blue-collar men").
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TankLV Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:19 AM
Response to Reply #128
130. Wow - just ASTOUNDINGLY stupid...
so all those BLACK voters who voted for the black HALF of obama are what, exactly???

you bots really are desperate this morning and more bitter than usual..."good job"...
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ohio2007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 01:00 PM
Response to Original message
133. Clinton wins Pennsylvania primary ( Public Policy Polling dot com gets punked )
the poll Obama showed a 47-43 advantage.?


Now that hidsight is 20/20, they need to fire their pollsters


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3279332&mesg_id=3279332
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daleo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 03:33 PM
Response to Reply #133
135. Yep, out by 13 points
Edited on Thu Apr-24-08 03:34 PM by daleo
That's some bad polling.

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ohio2007 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-24-08 03:57 PM
Response to Reply #135
136. I can't wait for them to TELL Guam how they will be voting soon. nt
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