ATV/Zogby Poll Toss-Up McCain 42%, Obama 41% as Undecided Voters Increase

[robcon]

Source: Zogby International

Obama loses support among his strongest demographic groups

UTICA, New York – A national Associated TV/Zogby International telephone poll of 1,011 likely voters conducted July 31-Aug. 1 finds Republican Sen. John McCain taking a razor-thin 42%-41% lead over Democrat Sen. Barack Obama in the race for the U.S. presidency.

The margin between the candidates is statistically insignificant, but demonstrates a notable turn-around from the Reuters/Zogby poll of July 7-9 that showed Obama ahead, 46%-36% in a four-way match-up that included Libertarian candidate Bob Barr of Georgia and liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader. McCain made significant gains at Obama’s expense among some of what had been Obama’s strongest demographic groups. For example:

* McCain gained 20% and Obama lost 16% among voters ages 18-29. Obama still leads that group, 49%-38%.
* Among women, McCain closed 10 points on Obama, who still leads by a 43%-38% margin.
* Obama has lost what was an 11% lead among Independents. He and McCain are now tied.
* Obama had some slippage among Democrats, dropping from 83% to 74%.
* Obama’s support among single voters dropped by 19%, and he now leads McCain, 51%-37%.
* Even with African-Americans and Hispanics, Obama shows smaller margins.



Read more: http://www.zogby.com/News/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1535

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Although the campaign only starts in earnest after the conventions, these are worrisome trends, especially in a poll (Zogby) that traditionally over-represents Democratic voters.

I think Obama will regain momentum after his convention speech, and get at least a 5 point lead by Labor Day.

[ryanmuegge]

1. GODDAMNIT.

I hate the American public. Fucking idiots. We deserve what we're going to get over the next four years if we elect another Republican after 8 years of Bush. I'm so fucking pissed off right now.

[hopewell1985]

2. swiftboated

Obama needs to respond to negative campaining

1. his messy divorce
2. the Keating 5
3. flip flop (drilling for oil)

[AndyTiedye]

16. He is a Hot-head Who May Very Well Start a Nuclear War

If we are going negative, look to the masters of going negative, the LBJ campaign against Goldwater.

The "Daisy" ad was the most effective negative ad of all time.
It brought us the only Democratic landslide in our lifetimes.

McCain is a hothead who may very well start a nuclear war if elected.
We need to make the American people understand this fact.

We need another "Daisy" ad.

This is the original:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKs-bTL-pRg

In the meanwhile, feel free to steal this image and post it everywhere:

[hopewell1985]

17. negative

Democrats need to wake up you must fight fire with fire.

[Hawaii Hiker]

30. I agree totally - Obama cannot play nice with McBush

Obama might not be comfortable going negative, but I don't see any other way...You know damn well Republicans will keep it up..

I like the ad yesterday linking McCain to Bush on the oil, but he needs to keep it up until November....

Fuck a clean campaign..

[farraday]

43. Keating 5 won't stick...

He has Bob Bennett (Democrat) on his side. Fuck!

[JeanGrey]

48. We'd better stop nonsense that dissing Cindy Mccain and a

"beauty pageant" and pay attention. McCain isn't through by a long shot.

[Richardo]

3. The swings are huge - losing double-digit advantages in two weeks?

Looks dubious to me.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

5. ...

[greenman3610]

6. so, Nader is going to f*** us again?

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

8. Interestingly, Nader is also going down, as is Barr.

Both of them are at 2% vs. an earlier 4%.

Nobody wants nobody...

[Raster]

40. Nader NEVER fucked us the first time.

One more time for those of you that missed it. According to the Independent News Consortium, if all the votes in Florida were legally and lawfully counted GORE WON. Undisputed fact. Once you factor in the Jeb Bush*/Katherine Harris electoral fraud in all its many forms and shapes, it becomes vividly apparent that Gore won handily. Gore did not lose Florida and thus the Presidency. It was stolen. That is also an indisputable fact. A right-wing, bloodless coup d'etat with the assistance of Supreme Court of the United States--a Republican majority Supreme Court--completed the election theft.

Put the blame where the blame belongs. And ultimately the blame belongs with the American people. That's right. You and me. Because we did not care enough to get OUR fat asses out of our La-Z-Boys and safeguard OUR democracy.

BLAME NADER is an appallingly successful right-wing meme that is designed to focus anger and responsibility away from the real people that fucked us, and are setting themselves up to fuck us all over again. Unfortunately that meme succeeds because America has moved from a culture of responsibility to one of blame and retribution. Stop the insanity and educate yourself. Each and every time someone throws out the "BLAME NADER" bullshit you just make the bad guy's job a bit easier.

[greenman3610]

55. Nader took enough votes in New Hampshire to turn that state to the GOP

Nader had 22,000 votes.
Gore lost the state by 7,000.

electoral vote total
R 271
D 266

N Hampshire electroral votes - 4


Had Gore won New Hampshire, Florida would have been irrelevant.
I used to worship Ralph Nader He was my hero.
But the damage he has done has erased much of the good.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

4. Obama should get a bigger than average convention bump, but the RNC is so close on

Obama should get a bigger than average convention bump, but the RNC is so close on the DNC's heels it will be a weird polling environment.

All the post-convention Obama polling will occur DURING the RNC, which is weird.

So whatever polling bounce Obama shows post-DNC it will be more meaningful than usual, not just transient fluff.

[AndyTiedye]

7. They Have Done It To Us AGAIN!

I was really starting to hope that this time would b different.

[Richardo]

11. We're three months away

For God's sake get a grip.

[Seen the light]

9. Now that Senator Obama is finally going negative....

I expect his mini-collapse in the polls to right itself quickly.

[Carrieyazel]

21. First week of August is one of the least-watched TV weeks of the year.

He should have done this a month ago. Will these ads be seen by enough voters for Obama to right himself?

The Olympics are starting, which is good and viewership will surge up, but only on NBC-owned networks. Other channels will have very low audiences.

[New Earth]

10. I don't believe it for 2 seconds.

actually not for 1 second.

[Raster]

19. Neither do I. The MSM *NEEDS* a horse race for several reasons:

(1) It's hard to generate advertising revenue in a lopsided political contest.

(2) Any poll result that shows Obama with a wide margin of Mcbush* would only reinforce that this election IS A REFERENDUM ON THE LAST EIGHT YEARS OF cheney*/bush*. The American MSM has been ACCOMPLICES to the cheney*/bush* pillaging of America. Don't expect anything fair and unbiased from them now. They have far too much at stake.

(3) Corporate America is scared to death of an Obama Presidency, and not necessarily because Obama presents such a threat to their status quo, but more that the American public--the true sleeping giant--will become empowered to find their voice AND THEIR POWER and end the corporate fleecing of America.

Consider any poll, commentary, or reporting from the American main-stream media as tainted and suspect. Just look at their track record.

[Winston.]

23. Another reason they may want this to appear close

is to make it possible to steal another election without it being too obvious...I don't trust anything that comes out of the mainstream media.

[Doctor_J]

31. No, the MSM needs a McSame presidency

And will stop at nothing to get it. If you think they're going to suddenly stop lying, smearing Obama, and reporting the truth, you must have lived in a cave for the last 20 years.

[Raster]

37. Absolutely! The Corporatocracy NEEDS McBush* and will do just about ANYTHING to preserve

the corporate status quo. And again, it is not so much about Obama, but the empowerment of Joe and Jane America, who are very concerned about the lives and their country. A McBush* "victory" would allow the Corporatocracy another four years TO COVER UP THE EVIDENCE OF THE LAST EIGHT YEARS. The last thing the Corporatocracy and their minions in Congress, the Supreme Court and the Executive Branch want is for comatose America to wake up out of their drug-induced slumbers. And make no mistake, the American main stream media aren't just collaborators, they are accomplices.

[Mad_Dem_X]

47. Neither do I.

There is no way that the race is this close.

[Historic NY]

12. pure BS

[Frances]

13. I listened to Obama's talk in Ohio today

Of course, he was right on all the issues, but he sounded like Gore did in 2000: hoarse and tired and unhappy about the lies being told about him

My instinct is to let him rest for 24 hours and take a break from listening to the stupid attacks.

Send out surrogates for now who attack McSame.

Then let him come back acting confident.

The thing Bill Clinton did best was to always bounce back smiling, even during his most embarrassing moments. Of course, Bill, unlike Gore and Obama, was no Boy Scout, so maybe it's easier to handle unfair attacks when you aren't as pure as the driven snow.

[roamer65]

49. Delete.

[Stuckinthebush]

14. Calm down everyone

We have three months. Also, the national polls mean squat. We saw this in 2000 when the stupid son of a former president won the presidency by taking states NOT a majority of the national vote.

Obama has started swinging and he is going to do fine and win this thing.

[Doremus]

26. Obama has lost 80 electoral votes in the past month.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6588750

Three more months like that and he'll be in negative numbers.

[davekriss]

15. This nation is f*cking insane

How can anyone even contemplate voting for a Republican in face of all the damage the Republican President, Republican Congress, and Republican-stacked courts have done all these years.

Yes, even if you're in the top 0.01% and have accrued Gilded Age riches, the future viability of your greed is at risk as the U.S. has slipped from its global preeminence. Thanks to Bush and Republican policies, we've become the bloated, overextended hegemon about to take its precipitous fall and fade into second-rate oblivion. That means more difficulty for the CIA and military to secure markets and natural resources for our top to exploit, if not outright failures.

Of course, if you're in the bottom 99.99%, Bush has just trashed our security and prospects for maintaining our standard of living. Bush and the Republicans have proven to be extraordinarilly obvious failures. So how can anyone in their right mind contemplate voting for McCain?

[Carrieyazel]

18. Bad news. And this is Zogby, a more favorable to Obama poll

than some of the others.

Obama has new fighting back ads, but he's airing them now in the first week of August, the least-watched TV week of the year. Few will actually notice them before the Olympics start, and viewership rises on the NBC networks, (but not on other channels). Obama should have started to hit hard on McCain a month ago or more.

[trthnd4jstc]

20. Remember John Zogby's Politics. n.t.

[No Elephants]

25. This is only one poll.

The trend is down, and that is not good. However, take a look at realclearpolitics.com, fivethirtyeight.com and pollster.com. Obama is still ahead overall, especially in the electoral vote, which is all that matters. Nonetheless, this is the time to contribute as much as you possibly can and volunteer as much as you possibly can. If you have not already done so, go www.barackobama.com and see what you can do.

[Doremus]

27. Down 80 electoral votes in the past month.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6588750

[NanceGreggs]

22. Utter and complete bullshit.

These "polls" are as reliable as Fox-News.

[Doctor_J]

29. Yes, keep repeating that

On Nov 3 maybe you'll be convinced.

[NanceGreggs]

36. Convinced of what?

That polls are accurate? The "polls" not only vary widely within themselves from day to day; they often vary widely from each other.

Telephone surveys have always been flawed; they are now fatally flawed due to cell-phone use, and a number of other factors.

Sorry, not buyin'. The only poll that counts is the one taken on election night. The rest are pointless.

[Doctor_J]

42. Convinced that McCain's sleaze-and-fear campaign is working

Do you think that a 19% across-the-board drop for Obama are attributable to one bad poll? That he will be gain back those losses by next Tuesday? That the race is not a great deal closer than it was a week ago? That the trend is reversible without changing the campaign strategy? That ignoring the filth thrown by McCain via Big Media isn't contributing to the trend?

These nightmares might be tolerable if we didn't have to relive them every 2 years.

[NanceGreggs]

45. I don't trust polls these days, period.

This one was based on a sampling of 1,011 "likely voters". Who decided who was a likely voter, and who wasn't?

Out of the millions of people who vote, 1,011 is a very small number. How many Catholics did they speak to? How many Hispanics? How many in the stated age groups? If it turned out that only five Hispanics were included in this survey, do you really think they are accurately representative of all Hispanics? If two of those five people said they don't have driver's licenses, could you extrapolate that into stating that 40% of all Hispanics aren't licensed? Or did you just happen to randomly get TWO people who don't drive?

Polling mechanisms are extremely flawed as it is. One can probably get a "flavour" of the mood of the country on certain topics at any given snap-shot moment in time - but it isn't necessarily accurate, and certainly not down to clear percentage points. And that is also assuming the methodology used is not open to being overly-weighted with assumptions that may well be way off the mark.

But the largest factor these days is the political leanings of people who own, run, and are employed by polling companies. They are not adverse to manipulating data, any more so than the media and print journalists are adverse to spinning the facts of a news item.

[kirby]

24. When do the debates start?

I have a feeling the debates will help undecided voters decide.

[Carrieyazel]

28. I think Obama made a mistake not agreeing to a couple of early debates

or town halls with McCain. He doesn't get a chance to go face-to-face until the end of September. The "conventional wisdom" was that Obama made the right call. But now it looks like he played it too safe.

[kirby]

35. Maybe late debates are still fine...

It might help the undecideds closer to the election and be fresher in the memory than if they were now.

[Politicalboi]

32. What a crock of shit

An old man who can't speak a sentence who has senior moments every time he opens his mouth is supposed to be tied or ahead of Obama. They are just trying to project a close race for ratings and or a theft in November.

[BrklynLiberal]

33. POLL FRAUD PRECEDES ELECTION FRAUD

not my original thought. Thanks to another DUer.

[fascisthunter]

41. ding, ding, ding, ding

[rayofreason]

34. Polls now are useless.

Too much volatility indicates that many answers are spur of the moment and can change easily. In October polls start to mean something.

[high density]

38. 36% swing in 18-29 support???

I don't buy that for a second.

[still_one]

39. mccain closed the gap with women? Obama slipped among Democrats

mccain is gaining among young voters

even African-Americans and Hispanics show smaller margins

I say BULLSHIT

Those are the very people that will be hurt the MOST by a mccain presidency

mccain is an extension of bush, it is as simple as that

Are people better off now then they were 8 years ago?

[mvd]

44. The thing is, all these polls show something diiiferent

74% among Democrats is lower than seen in other polls. But in other polls, there's another variation making things close. I do think the race is closer. But I believe Obama has a small lead.

BTW, Zobgy is very arrogant. If you e-mail him, he acts like he's the only poll out there.

[CrazyDude]

46. My biggest worry is Joe Lieberman giving the keynote in MN

We'll take a hit that day just like we did when Zell Miller spoke.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

54. Zell Miller was entertaining.

Joe Loserman is a droopy faced whiner.

[roamer65]

50. Any bets on which state will be the first one to secede if Insane McSame...

steals this election?

I say California.

[MadMaddie]

51. I will say it again All Polls are bullshit! I don't put any faith in them

This is another way to sway the vote.

[nookiemonster]

52. Unfortunately,

my job allows me to deal with Joe and Jane Sixpack on a daily basis.

Many of these fuckers constantly repeat the "Obama is a muslim" and "Obama will take our guns" tripe.

There's alot of ignorance out there. Ignorance of the facts, and an unwillingness to be objective about anything political.

The media is doing us no favors. I just wish that Obama would start attacking these right wing bastards, and quit trying to play nice. If the Dems don't learn how to frame, we will always be on the defensive.

A little assertive action would be nice.

Just sayin'.....

:banghead:

[JohnnyCougar]

53. This isn't necessarily a new poll

Its last day was August 1, and was done during Obama's bad week when McCain started airing those attack ads.

Since then, Obama's numbers have rebounded in the Gallup poll, and the new AP/Ipsos poll has come out giving Obama 4 and 6 point leads, respectively.

Obama was seriously hurt by the offshore drilling pander and by the McCain attack ads. This week, Obama has been on the attack. Let this be a lesson that this election has to be about McCain and his many shortcomings, and not a culture war against Obama.

[CTLawGuy]

56. relax

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6594829

[scarface2004]

57. huh?

c mon...total bullshit! how is that even possible? have the pods taken over to that extent?