Russian threat to Nato supply route in Afghanistan

[magellan]

Source: Times Online, London

Russia played a trump card in its strategic poker game with the West yesterday by threatening to suspend an agreement allowing Nato to take supplies and equipment to Afghanistan through Russia and Central Asia.

The agreement was struck at a Nato summit in April to provide an alternative supply route to the road between the Afghan capital and the Pakistani border, which has come under attack from militants on both sides of the frontier this year.

Zamir Kabulov, the Russian Ambassador to Afghanistan, told The Times in an interview that he believed the deal was no longer valid because Russia suspended military cooperation with Nato last week over its support for Georgia.

snip...

His remarks are likely to alarm Nato commanders because the Taleban have been targeting the supply routes of the alliance this year, mimicking tactics used against the British in 1841 and the Soviet Union two decades ago. Nato imports about 70 per cent of its food, fuel, water and equipment from Pakistan via the Khyber Pass, and flies in much of the rest through Russian airspace via bases in Central Asia. It has not started using the “northern corridor” because the deal – covering nonmilitary supplies and nonlethal military equipment – has yet to be cleared with the Central Asian states involved.

Read more: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/europe/article4608250.ece

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Right or wrong, Russia has got the West by the you-know-whats. Trust BushCo to walk us right into another clusterf*ck.

[yurbud]

1. Who was it that said ''Don't get involved in a land war in Asia?''

[Art_from_Ark]

4. Rudyard Kipling, perhaps?

No doubt it's been said many times since Kipling's day

[dbmk]

15. Vizzini said it!

It is the most famous blunder.
(Shortly followed by not going up against a sicilian when death is on the line.)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TUee1WvtQZU

[14thColony]

18. I've spent the last several years developing an immunity to Iocane powder!

What a great movie. Who knew Vizzini would be so right?

[Ex Lurker]

17. Macarthur to JFK, 1961 n/t

[Art_from_Ark]

2. delete

duplicate post

[Art_from_Ark]

3. I am not at all surprised with this development.

Any "Soviet expert" should have seen this coming from 100 miles away

[DarthDem]

5. Condi Rice Dig?

I hope so. I HATE her. Sovietologist my ass.

[Art_from_Ark]

7. You got it

How can anyone claim to be a "Sovietologist" when they can't even understand the language of the Soviet Union?

[DarthDem]

9. I Hear That

I've posted this before, but I was a 21-YO senior in college aobut 15 years ago now, taking Russian 2, when I came across some newspaper piece featuring a ridiculous opinion by "Bush Administration Soviet Expert Condoleezza Rice." I didn't know squat back then compared to what I know now, but I did realize right away that her stated views were ridiculously off. And turned out I was right. You can imagine how thrilled I have been with her preposterous rise to power ever since.

[Art_from_Ark]

13. Did Condi foresee the collapse of the USSR?

Seems like it took her by surprise, just like 9-11.

I had two professors in the '80s who were quite versed on the Soviet Union. One of them took a trip to Moscow through Intourist in 1988 and came back saying "I don't see how that country can last another 5 years". The other one was telling me in 1989 that the Soviet economy was doomed to failure since a significant porportion of it was based on "factories making parts... for other factories"

[DarthDem]

14. She Definitely Did Not

You're right on the money. A complete shock to her brilliant mind.

And I had a similar experience to what you did; I was just dabbling in the Russian language (French major so I took other languages too for fun), but I had a history class where the professor said the same things yours did, and he had been over there recently on an Intourist visa as well. Funny how "Dr. Rice" missed all those signals.

[Xipe Totec]

19. No one could have anticipated this development nt

[jeff30997]

8. Sovietologist my ass.

Condi is a Proctologist?

[DarthDem]

10. If the glove fits . . .

But let me remove *my* ass, at least, from the discussion.

[jeff30997]

12. Lol!

:)

[hogwyld]

6. Check friggin' mate

There's a reason the Russians excel at chess. All while captain codpiece tries to figure out the rules to tiddlywinks...

[jeff30997]

11. Bravo Chimpy and Co !

You decided to start Cold War II or World War III ? Stupid freaks! :grr:

[Jim__]

16. Almost 8 years now - and bush still doesn't have a clue - n/t

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

20. The heroin pipeline?

:shrug:

[FMArouet]

21. Next up: major arms deal with Iran

I would expect the Russians to sell advanced medium range SAM missiles and radars to complement the Russian Tor point defense systems already in the Iranian arsenal. Advanced Sunburn anti-ship missiles area also a likely item on the Iranian shopping list and are both affordable and lethal, especially when fired in coordinated salvoes from multiple directions--a technique practiced by the Iranians.

The Iranians might not consider it cost-effective to purchase advanced Russian Mig or Sukhoi aircraft, though it would make sense for them to purchase a few to deploy as launch platforms to extend the range of their anti-ship missiles.

A little farther down the road, I would not be surprised to see close Russian and Iranian collaboration (along with some Central Asian states) to finance and construct natural gas pipelines eastward to China, a major potential customer.

Looking around the table, it increasingly appears as though other players have some pretty good cards in their hands and are inclined to call the neocons' bluff and bluster.

[Purveyor]

22. And a 'NATO-like' security pact. eom

[FMArouet]

23. Could happen

Wonder what security guarantees we just gave to Poland? Or what guarantees we are about to offer to Georgia and the Ukraine?

[14thColony]

25. The guarantee to Poland

is their membership in NATO. If Poland is attacked it becomes an Article V requirement for all NATO nations to come to her defense.

[Xithras]

24. Already exists. It's called the CSTO.

Collective Security Treaty Organization. The west sometimes ignores the fact that Russia moved quickly after the fall of the USSR to keep some kind of influence over its former areas, and spearheaded the formation of the CIS (Commonwealth of Independent States). You'll notice, reading the article above, that Russia is threatening to kick the U.S. out of Tajikistan and some other former USSR countries. They can do this because those countries are members of the CIS and have signed the CSTO treaty. That treaty forbids member states from joining other military alliances, and from cooperating militarily with foreign countries that are hostile to other CSTO member states. If Russia declares itself to be a military opponent of the United States, other signatories to the CSTO will be obligated to kick the U.S. military out.

More importantly to your point, the CSTO isn't actually limited to CIS member states. It was started by them, but in theory ANY country could join the CSTO. If the CSTO were to become an anti-NATO alliance, that could be a very bad thing for everyone on the planet.

[ngant17]

26. There must be lots of Russian monkey-wrenches they

could use to throw against US/NATO. This is a fairly serious one. But they must know some other critical weak points to cripple the US over there, after all, the Soviets were fighting the Taliban themselves.

The Taliban could suddenly find 'lost' Russian crates of hi-tech weaponry, and Moscow would deny any involvment.

Military intelligence information gathered by the Russians could somehow make its way to them.

The possibilities are endless.

As if the Georgian situation isn't bad enough for NATO at them moment.