U.S. Sept. ISM manufacturing index plunges to 43.5%

[Roland99]

Source: MarketWatch

U.S. Sept. ISM manufacturing index plunges to 43.5%
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B38771BDA%2DEC70%2D41C6%2D8365%2DA1DE37303BA3%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The nation's manufacturers cut back production at a much faster pace than expected in September, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday. This is the lowest level since October 2001. The ISM index plunged to 43.5% in September from 49.9% in August. This is the biggest drop in the index since 1984. The drop surprised economists. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to slip only a bit to 49.6%. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. The ISM index has been holding near 50 since the summer. The previous low this year was 48.3 in February. Economists said the ISM index was near recessionary levels. End of Story

Read more: http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B38771BDA%2DEC70%2D41C6%2D8365%2DA1DE37303BA3%7D&siteid=mktw

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Oh look! More surprised economists!

[Javaman]

1. but but but consumer confidence is up!!! nt

[leveymg]

2. We should require bailed out companies to invest in U.S. manufacturing and services

No more bail-outs for outsourcing. Invest here, rebuild America.

[Union Thug]

6. see, that's that kind of bailout detail that I'll buy!

[UpInArms]

3. here's a picture of those "surprised eCONomists"

[mikeytherat]

4. Without reading the article, let me guess: the figures is WAY below what the "experts" predicted.

Yep. First paragraph:

"The nation's manufacturers cut back production at a much faster pace than expected in September, the Institute for Supply Management reported Wednesday."

"The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to slip only a bit to 49.6%."

Must be nice to get a job as one of these economic "experts."

mikey_the_rat

[Union Thug]

5. Surprised economists = armchair anthropologists?

Remember the armchair anthropologists - sitting in their ivory towers theorizing on the nature of humanity and religion? Sir James Frazier's Golden Bough is a work of monumental proportion, rivaling that of Grimm's Teutonic Mythology in the vast survey of folk belief and practices of Europe. But when he started trying to explain it all, his magic -> Religion -> Science theory of human progress, as high minded as it was at the time, didn't reflect reality to a large degree. It was a nice, linear, clean explanation for historical events, but wasn't very useful. Frazier is the de facto definition of the armchair anthropologist.

The surprised economists mentioned in your post remind me the armchair anthropologists - sitting high above the fray, analyzing data and pumping out volumes of dense theory. Wholly unconnected from the experience of the average working american, they see the economy through academic and/or business filters and their professional-grade salaries, but rarely (if ever) experience the economy from the perspective of the vast majority of Americans. Should it come as any wonder that they are often found wide-eyed?

I'm not saying that the theory isn't useful, and that there aren't great ideas and incredibly gifted thinkers out there. But I take everything with a grain of salt - especially these days. When economists can talk about unemployment and inflation rates with a straight face, full well knowing that shifting metrics are changing and manipulating those numbers (mostly to make the economy appear more stable than it really is), while all the while the *real* numbers - growing armies of unemployed, rising inflation rates - are crippling working people in numbers disproportionate to that expected by the 'data,' I'm disinclined to put my trust in their high-minded analyses.

[progressoid]

7. "...near recessionary levels"

Seems to me we've been near recessionary levels for a few months now.

[eowyn_of_rohan]

8. Manufacturers? I didn't know we still had any

[UpInArms]

9. hint - it's not what you think...

In the New Economics: Fast-Food Factories?

Published: February 20, 2004

Is cooking a hamburger patty and inserting the meat, lettuce and ketchup inside a bun a manufacturing job, like assembling automobiles?

That question is posed in the new Economic Report of the President, a thick annual compendium of observations and statistics on the health of the United States economy.

The latest edition, sent to Congress last week, questions whether fast-food restaurants should continue to be counted as part of the service sector or should be reclassified as manufacturers. No answers were offered.

In a speech to Washington economists Tuesday, N. Gregory Mankiw, chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, said that properly classifying such workers was ''an important consideration'' in setting economic policy.

Counting jobs at McDonald's, Burger King and other fast-food enterprises alongside those at industrial companies like General Motors and Eastman Kodak might seem like a stretch, akin to classifying ketchup in school lunches as a vegetable, as was briefly the case in a 1981 federal regulatory proposal.

But the presidential report points out that the current system for classifying jobs ''is not straightforward.'' The White House drew a box around the section so it would stand out among the 417 pages of statistics.

...more...

[eowyn_of_rohan]

10. oh brother... Big Mac assembly lines = Manufacturing ? lol

thanks for the link.

From the article:

Classifications matter, the report says, because among other things, they can affect which businesses receive tax relief.

some economists want to count hamburger flipping as manufacturing, which would produce statistics showing more jobs in what has been a declining sector of the economy.

[xchrom]

11. recommend

[DLnyc]

12. Wow, Reading the article, this seems like a serious drop in a very solid

measure. Big slowdown coming, I would say.

[OakCliffDem]

13. Kick