Young Voters Lead Prop 8 Support Shift (to favor gay marriage ban)

[Newsjock]

Source: KPIX-TV

A new CBS 5 poll finds that California's Proposition 8 has picked up support in the wake of a television ad campaign that features footage of San Francisco Mayor Gavin Newsom proclaiming same-sex marriage is here to stay "whether you like it or not."

The poll conducted for CBS 5 by SurveyUSA indicates that support for the measure to ban gay marriage has grown among voters in the state over an eleven day period — most especially among young voters.

According to the poll, likely California voters overall now favor passage of Proposition 8 by a five-point margin, 47 percent to 42 percent. Ironically, a CBS 5 poll eleven days prior found a five-point margin in favor of the measure's opponents.

The only demographic group to significantly change their views during this period were younger voters — considered the hardest to poll and the most unpredictable voters — who now support the measure after previously opposing it.

It should be noted that the poll, conducted statewide Oct. 4 and 5 among 670 likely voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percent, and the pollster continued to label the race too close to call — just as it did eleven days ago.

Read more: http://cbs5.com/local/proposition.8.poll.2.834082.html

[merwin]

1. This just goes to show that polling doesn't correctly include young voters.

Many of which only have cell phones. I doubt a single ad campaign could swing the support that far.

[enlightenment]

2. Probably true,

but it could also mean that a lot of people consider a line like that "fightin' words" and will go to lengths to prove the Mayor wrong, even if it's cutting off their nose to spite their face.

Easiest way to get someone's back up is to toss out the idea that they have no control over a situation. I appreciate the sentiment - and don't disagree with it - but I think the Mayor stuck his foot in his mouth.

[Freddie Stubbs]

7. I was polled on my cell phone just a few weeks ago

Good pollsters don't use the phone book for the list of people to call, they use voter registration records. My voter registration record contains my cell phone number, as I do not have a land line.

[David__77]

13. I don't think that really happens in California.

I know I don't put my phone number on any registration form. There is indeed a box that says "Telephone number (optional)," but I don't put it and I suspect most don't. Were they to use these numbers, there would be another type of bias to be accounted for. Either way, I am doubtful that young voters will support Proposition 8 on election day, but I take nothing for granted. All efforts are called for!

[merwin]

20. Did they say which polling firm they represent?

I'm pretty certain that the major pollsters do not call cell numbers. There are fake phone polls going around as well.

[Freddie Stubbs]

22. Quinnipiac

How do you know that you are calling a cell phone? When you pull the voter records, the phone numbers of a cell phone don't look any different than land line numbers.

[merwin]

23. True, with number portability that is partially right.

If you have a landline and then port it to a cell phone, then they would think it is a landline. However, you can tell whether a NPA/NXX (area code/prefix) is a landline or mobile prefix.

For example, T-Mobile owns the 425-353-XXXX numbers. That would be my guess on how they don't call cell phones.

Did you by chance move your number from a landline to a cell?

[Freddie Stubbs]

26. No. I did not switch this number from a land line

Why would a polling firm purposefully exclude cell phones from its sample?

[merwin]

30. Here's more info on the cell-only issue, from Pew Research

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/515/polling-cell-only-problem

Most of the problem is that cell phones have limited minutes often, and they don't want to get in trouble for wasting people's minutes with potential junk calls.

[LiberadorHugo]

3. If young people oppose civil rights for same-sex couples...

Your country is collectively worthless compared to Canada.

[AndyTiedye]

4. A Small Portion of a Small Sample

670 voters representing all of California, and how many of those were young people?
Even the pollster is reading less into it than CBS is.

[tavalon]

29. Your second statement is believable but not your first, at least by me

Old people like McCain often lose the ability to adjust their opinions. They become solidified like amber.

[mike_c]

5. I have said from the beginning that I fear Prop 8 will pass....

The ends of the politial spectrum are pretty far apart here, and although the national perception tends to focus on the liberal end of the California continuum, there is a pretty big conservative electorate, too. This is the state that gave us Nixon and Reagan, after all.

[redqueen]

6. Yes, but why?

I think it was more the greed of the rich / wannabe rich than the hyper-religiosity of a majority of the citizens.

[mike_c]

8. homophobia isn't always about religion, though....

For many Californians I think it's just plain red-neck ignorance.

[redqueen]

9. Ugh... you're right.

*sigh*

[slackmaster]

11. A lot of Californians are Roman Catholics

That's the reason I have been saying that Prop. 8 has a chance of passing.

[bluestateguy]

10. They should do the poll again

That is simply not credible.

Pollsters often do this (a do-over) when they come up with results that are simply, well, crap.

[VP505]

17. I have a problem believing that poll also.

IMO, out of all the demographics younger voters would be the ones who care the least about things like sexual orientation and race. But I could be way wrong about that. edited to include an after thought, they might have done their polling in a very red area like Orange County which could be true.

[TheWraith]

12. Newsom is a fucking idiot. That kind of comment is begging to be used as a club.

I wouldn't freak out yet, though. "Likely" voters aren't the only ones voting this year.

[David__77]

14. He is an idiot. How I wish Matt Gonzalez had won.

Newsom is so tone deaf is incredible. What he did wasn't morally wrong per se, but it was stupid. You have to implement the strategy and tactics to win political power.

[TheWraith]

15. Personally, I think Newsom likes the spotlight a little too much.

His actions on the national stage have always struck me as more concerned with getting himself attention than being about getting things done. I've got no quarrel with his policies, but his attitude and sense of politics suck. That quote's a perfect example: all he should have said was "There's a referendum on the ballot in November. I oppose it and I'll argue to everyone why it should be defeated." That's all. Instead he basically told everyone who isn't 110% on board with him to go fuck themselves.

[2Design]

16. fundies have lots of kids and home school against liberals n/t

[EFerrari]

18. I don't believe this. n/t

[CreekDog]

19. Trust the Field Poll, not this one and no intiative wins with 47% of the vote

It needs a majority, period. It was far short of that in the Field Poll.

[bemildred]

21. Bullshit. nt

[Odin2005]

24. Question for Latino DUers: Aren't Latinos supposed to tend to be socially conservative?

Might that explain this? :shrug:

[EFerrari]

25. Just my experience: even socially conservative Latinos

are less likely to tell you what you should do. In the culture, it's considered pretty rude to prescribe for other people (that's a big generalization but, mostly true).

And socially "conservative" Latinos are mostly the older generation, anyway.

[Odin2005]

33. Thanks for the explaination! n/t,

[and-justice-for-all]

27. The ban on Same-sex marriage violates my right to privacy...

they have no right to ban people, from doing something that other people do everyday.

[tavalon]

28. Why would young voters oppose gay marriage?

That's a stick in the mud, too old to change for the better, attitude. Doesn't make sense to me.

[fob]

31. Probably because when you see the add with GN at the beginning

it looks like a big happy party and the impulse is to say, "yeah, that's not a big deal, I support that" but it's not until 10 sec's later or so that the big bad scary guy comes on to say that this means "gay marriage is MANDATORY" and "they'll be teaching it in shools!!" that you realize it is an ANTI-gay marriage commercial.

I can see why this commercial would generate "support". I tuned it out for the first 5 or 6 times after GN came on assuming it was a commercial for the good side. It wasn't until I hung in there and the loony dude started his crazy talk that I realized the commercial was advocating the opposite I had thought it was.

[EFerrari]

32. There's something wrong with this poll because younger people

routinely poll more tolerant than anyone. Maybe this is just a part of the campaign.