Obama Could Win 364 Electoral Votes, Traders Say

[RedEarth]

Source: (Bloomberg)

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama is likely to pick up 364 Electoral College votes, far surpassing the 270 needed to claim the presidency, by winning battleground states including Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Colorado, online traders say.

Bettors on the Dublin-based Intrade's political futures market believe Obama, the Democratic presidential candidate, will prevail in all the states won by party nominee John Kerry in 2004, in addition to picking up other previously Republican strongholds such as Nevada and Missouri. Arizona Senator John McCain, the Republican nominee, would pick up 174 Electoral votes, winning states such as Texas, Indiana and West Virginia.



Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aN6KgfzBrYwE&refer=home

[ginnyinWI]

1. Good--he'll need a strong mandate to drown out the wingnuts

in Congress who are even now getting their whines ready to go.

[nichomachus]

10. That's a good one

we can refer to the republicans in Congress as "whine merchants."

[swimboy]

2. Please may it be so!

I would love to see a rout! A drubbing!

[BrklynLiberal]

6. I sure do want it to be inarguable, unstealable, irrefutable, overwhelming, undisputable,

and incredibly Democratic...

[VWolf]

3. Screw that. I want 375.

And I'll keep phone-banking until it happens.

[dchill]

4. "Traders Say"...

Huh. Traders.

[denverbill]

11. In the same way that 'traders say' the AT&T stock is worth $26.72 per share.

Intrade is a 'market' sort of. So 364 is the number of votes required to get an approximately equal number of people willing to bet he'll win at least that many, versus those willing to bet he'll win more than that. If the number was 272, WAY more people would bet that Obama would win more than that and nobody would be willing to bet the low side.

Traders don't have to 'say' anything to make their opinions known. Their bets are their language.

[Frisbee]

5. That would be awesome!!!

I see 383 as the absolute max he could get and think 372 is possible (383 would require IN, and that's looking unlikely). He's going to need a strong mandate from the people to deal with everything on his plate.

[Politicalboi]

7. Obama's 8 points

Ahead in WV And I think he will take Indiana too. I think the magic number is going to be 401. Obama is only 4 points behind in Indiana and the debates are tomorrow night. And Montana and Georgia are only 6 points. All these states are winnable for Obama. And NC I think will go blue too. The RepubliCONS are now trying to say be aware of voter fraud, but if voter turn out is "Hugh" they won't be able to say a word.

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[GinaMaria]

8. Wow. ND is bucking their trend

Is there anything specific going on there that would drive this change, other than Obama being the best candidate?

On Edit:
What is going on in MS, GA and NC? Any DUers in these states? What can we do to help?

[norepubsin08]

13. I would say

MS, UT, ID, WY, SC, AL, OK are absolute lost causes 44 Electoral votes

TX, NE (except one district), KS, ND, SD, AK, AR, WV, AZ, TN, KY are likely to be lost causes 95 EV's

that means it appears to me that Obama has a shot at 365 EV's

I think he has WA OR CA HA DC MN IA MI PA NJ NY MY DE VA CT RI MA VT and ME locked up for 237 absolute

which means he needs to pick up 33 more from among: FL 27 GA 15 NC 15 OH 20 NM 5 CO 9 NV 5 NH 4 MO 11 MT 3

[Taverner]

9. Texas? If that happens I will reward every single DU Texan

Somehow....not sure how yet...

[aquart]

12. Are they sure about Texas and West Virginia?

[HopeHoops]

14. I just got back from a place that had FOX Noise on (no sound fortunately)

Even FOX is stuck reporting that Obama is ahead all over the place, but of course they use much smaller margins than the legitimate polls. Oh, the Palin came on for uninterrupted coverage (free campaign infomercial) and FOX flashed the tired talking points - "Obama voted 94 times to raise taxes", "We can't afford another big spender in the W.H.", "McCain has the courage to tackle the 10T debt", etc. They have no shame.

[liberal texan]

15. on West Virginia

this site which is what i use to keep track of electoral votes

There has been a trend of West Virginia going blue
www.electoral-vote.com

[lisa58]

16. I want more

[HillbillyBob]

17. Someone told me "It is impossible to cheat a landslide and we need

the landslide in the presidential and congressional (federal and all states) we have to get these criminals in cages and out of our government.