Gallup Daily: Obama Has Modest Lead Among Likely Voters

[RedSpartan]

Source: Gallup

PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking shows Barack Obama running ahead of John McCain among likely voters -- 50% to 46% using the "traditional" model Gallup has employed in past elections, and 51% to 45% using an "expanded" model that takes into account possibly greater turnout by new or infrequent voters.


Read more: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111415/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Has-Modest-Lead-Among-Likely-Voters.aspx

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[Alcibiades]

1. This time many of the unlikely voters

will vote.

[dbonds]

2. Why is McCain up at all, is it the robocalls?

[Alcibiades]

3. The likely voters are McCain voters

Age, income and a number of other factors tend to correlate with all forms of political participation, and they also happen to correlate with voting Republican.

For this election, however, they will need to throw out the old data they have used to determine who are "likely" voters.

[Robbien]

4. The GOPer brand.

For the last couple of decades GOPers have been tarnishing the Dem name and liberal label. GOPers have been told to be proud they are GOPers and not one of those godforsaken America hating liberals. This has been reinforced through their churches, hate talk radio and the media.

To actually cast a vote for a Democrat is something they cannot conceive themselves doing.

Of course this is not all GOPers, but it is a goodly amount of them.

[dbonds]

7. I probably wasn't clear in my remark...

I was curious why over the last few days McLame has gone up a point or two each day, and there has been no good news for him and no bad news for Obama. They only thing I could think of was the robocalls.

[livelongandprosper]

14. I think it's the robocalls the mailers and now Joe Biden's

frankly stupid comment. I hope Joe will learn some discipline from Barack.

[progressivebydesign]

6. No. The calls are backfiring. This "likely voter" crap is just a way of slicing/dicing the poll #s.

If you did a straight polling of REGISTERED voters, then the margin would be big, as it always has been. Nothing has been tightened... but for some reason the media feels the need to push these numbers now. Nothing has changed, in fact, Obama has been holding (if not widening) his lead. The place we need to watch are the individual state polls... as this election is not won on popular votes.

[dbonds]

8. But there are 3 polls in listed, and one is registered voters which shows the same trend

but not as exaggerated as the likely voter graphs. One day and I would think noise, but it has been an easing up over the last few days. I'm not worried, just wondering what is motivating that rise in his numbers when nothing is going his way.

[damntexdem]

10. The Registered Voters trend also showed a narrowing, though of a larger lead.

The lead down to only 7 points.

But some other points don't show a narrowing trend.

The upshot of all of this -- we won't know before Nov. 4. As has always been true.

[progressivebydesign]

5. Wish the general public understood what "LIKELY VOTERS" means..

it does not mean that they asked these folks if they're voting or not... it means that they use (outdated) statistics to remove people from the poll. If computer models based on... whatever year they use, show that a certain demographic is more likely to vote, then they'll remove people from the polling in groups.

Likely voter... that's out the window this year and they know that.

I do find it so fascinating that SUDDENLY the "likely voter" polls are being trotted out like they're gospel. They are not. 2008 will be unlike any election in history. All the "unlikely" voters will be voting this time.. and it won't be good for the repubs.

[high density]

9. So in other words, Obama still leads the idea of a popular vote

and has been consistently leading since the shock wore off of the Republican Convention.

[happygoluckytoyou]

11. is it the LIGHT or DARK line which is McCain's heartbeat? --> please reply to question here ->

Should marriage be defined as a union between one man and one woman (Barack & Michelle).... one man and one woman and one woman (John & Kathy & Cindy) ...... one woman and one man and one man's business partner (Sarah & First Dude & the Snowmobile Dealership Partner)...

I'm confused... what would Jesus do ? McCain, you went to school with Jesus, what would he do ?


How many Republicans should it take to screw in a lightbulb... I was under the impression that Republicans only screwed in High School Hockey Rink Locker Rooms, because their moms didn't want to put money into high school sex education ?

[aldo]

12. These polls are crocks of sh*t

These polling outfits are as much part of the propaganda apparatus as the MSM is. If they can get us to believe it's close they will steal this election. They just can't afford for Joe Sixpack to wake up to Repukelican perfidy.

[FUCK_BUSH]

13. Mark my word, They are going to steal this election.We have to work extra hard for this election.

All these polls means nothing.If we don't show up in numbers and vote , we will loose just like 2004.

OH , PA , FL we MUST get all these 3 .