STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday November 14

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday November 14, 2008

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 67
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2577 DAYS
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 2868
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 10
Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 13, 2008

Dow... 8,835.25 +552.59 (+6.67%)
Nasdaq... 1,596.70 +97.49 (+6.50%)
S&P 500... 911.29 +58.99 (+6.92%)
Gold future... 705.00 -13.30 (-1.85%)
30-Year Bond 4.33% +0.14 (+3.41%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.82% +0.15 (+4.17%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

Strange Case of Falling International Reserves Explored
BY MIKE SHEDLOCK

...

I’ll leave you with this question: what is the significance of the drastic change in the growth-trend of International Reserves, from explosive growth, to the sudden beginning of a contraction?

Hot Money Inflows

The enormous growth of reserves in China are a direct consequence of billions of US dollars invested in China and deposited in Chinese banks by US supranational firms. These US firms are using Chinese contract manufacturers or US subsidiaries to produce cheap goods for the US market and elsewhere. This requires the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to buy US securities as reserves against US firms' massive bank deposits in country.

.....

Diversification Calls Revisited

Most do not understand that the PBOC needs to hold US$ reserves against the massive amount of US firms' deposits due to the lack of direct convertibility of the Renminbi.

The Chinese banking system is too immature/fragile to deal with the scale of direct hot money flows that would otherwise occur were the Chinese currency directly convertible. It is arguable that the banking system has not done well with backdoor money flows via Hong Kong and elsewhere, which was the primary driver of the recent Shanghai bubble and crash.

Remember all those calls for China to diversify out of the dollar into Euros, Australian dollars, Swiss Francs, Canadian Loonies, New Zealand dollars, etc? The reason China didn't is because it knew that someday there would be an exodus of hot money from China and it would need dollars, not some other reserve currencies when it happened.

This is just a trickle now, but imagine what selling massive amounts of Australian or New Zealand dollars to buy US dollars would do to the currencies of those countries. For a hint, look at Iceland.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

57. Verrry Interesting!

Are there no straightforward, one-on-one, plain and simple transactions anymore?

Hell, Bush can't even do a simple war of conquest, and now this?

[TalkingDog]

68. Straightforward = easily examined

We wouldn't want that now, would we?

Fog of war and all that.....

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Oct
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior NA

08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Oct
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior NA

08:30 Retail Sales Oct
Briefing.com -1.9%
Consensus -2.1%
Prior -1.2%

08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Oct
Briefing.com -1.0%
Consensus -1.2%
Prior -0.6%

10:00 Business Inventories Sep
Briefing.com 0.2%
Consensus -0.1%
Prior 0.3%

10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Nov
Briefing.com 58.5
Consensus 57.0
Prior 57.6

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

24. U.S. Oct. retail sales fall record 2.8% vs. -2.3% expected

06. U.S. Oct. retail sales fall record 2.8% vs. -2.3% expected
8:30 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

07. U.S. Oct. sales ex-autos fall record 2.2% vs. -1.7% expected
8:30 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

08. U.S. Oct. retail sales ex-autos, ex-gas fall 0.5%
8:30 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

09. U.S. Oct. gasoline station sales fall record 12.7%
8:30 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

10. U.S. Oct. auto sales fall 5.5%, most in three years
8:30 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

16. U.S. retail sales down 4.1% in past year
8:30 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

[UpInArms]

25. Decline exaggerated by falling gas prices, collapse of auto sales

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Retail-sales-plunge-record-28/story.aspx?guid=%7B4E4A5159%2DC382%2D4115%2DA4EC%2DC2BE9BF45658%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Falling for a fourth straight month, U.S. retail sales plunged a record 2.8% in October as sales of autos and gasoline plummeted, the Commerce Department estimated Friday.

Excluding the 5.5% drop in auto purchases, retail sales fell a record 2.2%.

The figures were worse than expected, with economists surveyed by MarketWatch looking for the headline sales number to fall 2.3% and sales excluding autos expected to drop 1.7%.

Falling gasoline prices accounted for about half the decline in total sales in October. Sales at gas stations fell a record 12.7% as the average price at the pump plunged. Sales excluding gas dropped 1.5%, the biggest decline in three years.

Excluding both autos and gas, sales fell 0.5%.

Sales were quite weak across a broad swath of the retail sector in October, an indication that the fourth quarter could be worse than the just completed third quarter, when inflation-adjusted consumer spending fell at the fastest pace in 28 years.

Retail sales account for about half of consumer spending and about one-third of domestic demand.

Retail sales are down 4.1% in the past year. Sales fell a downwardly revised 1.3% in September. Sales in August were also revised lower to a 0.7% decline.

...more...

[Demeter]

89. Decline Under-Reported by Conniving, Lying Cheats in Office

who hope to hide it under a rug of revision next month, as usual.

[Tansy_Gold]

101. A detailed analysis would be welcome, I think

We get the figures -- sales declined, sales rose -- but wouldn't it be nice if we got routine information on how and why they rose and/or fell?

We can see on a daily basis that gasoline prices rise and fall, but who monitors the price of a bottle of shampoo, a gallon of milk, a loaf of bread, a jar of peanut butter? How much of the change in the price of any given market-basket commodity is due to higher fuel prices, weather fluctuations, general inflation? And then how are sales affected by the general drop in consumer finances, the raising of credit card interest rates, etc., etc., etc.

Are consumers spending less on gas just because the price is down, or are they buying less and driving less because they simply can't afford it even at prices that are half what they were a few months ago?

These are all, of course, rhetorical questions in this forum, but shouldn't there be a place we can go to get some answers to them?

Just askin',



Tansy Gold

[Demeter]

103. We Used to Get Government Reports That Actually Told Us This Stuff

I remember hearing them on NPR. Then Reaganism, the attacks on public broadcasting, the budget cutting that only cut the meat and none of the fat, and then the systemic lying, all this made America and Americans incredibly uninformed and ill-informed. The nation's IQ has probably dropped 20 points since 1976.

[UpInArms]

27. U.S. 12-month import prices rise 6.7%

03. U.S. October import prices ex-fuels fall 0.8%
8:33 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

04. U.S. October import prices fall 4.7% vs. 4.8% fall expected
8:32 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

05. U.S. 12-month import prices rise 6.7%
8:32 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

06. U.S. October petroleum import prices fall 16.7%
8:32 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

07. U.S. October import prices ex-petroleum fall 0.9%
8:32 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

[UpInArms]

30. more info:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-October-import-prices-fall/story.aspx?guid=%7BE14CDC3A%2DB777%2D4C35%2D8D32%2D6BCC26047FFA%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Prices of imported goods fell the most in two decades - the third consecutive month of declines -- as petroleum prices plunged, the Labor Department reported Friday.

The 4.7% decline in the import price index is the largest since the monthly data started in 1988. Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a decline of 4.8%. See Economic Calendar.

Import prices fell 3.3% in September, revised from a prior estimate of a 3% dip.

In October, imported petroleum prices fell 16.7% -- the largest one-month decline since April 2003. Excluding petroleum, import prices fell 0.9%. Over the three months ended in October, ex-petroleum prices fell 2.2% -- the largest quarterly decline since the index was first published in 1985.

Meanwhile, natural gas prices fell 4.9% in October.

Excluding all fuels, import prices fell 0.8% in October, the largest one-month decline since the index was first published in December 2001.

Overall import prices were up 6.7% over the past 12 months.

...more...

[UpInArms]

48. U.S. Nov. UMich consumer sentiment 57.9 vs 56.5 expected

1. U.S. Nov. UMich consumer sentiment 57.9 vs 56.5 expected
9:58 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

[UpInArms]

49. Sept Business Inventories @ -0.2%

September business inventories were down 0.2%, which is below the consensus forecast of a 0.1% decline. The prior reading was revised lower to a 0.2% increase.

[UpInArms]

60. US yearly econ growth hits new six-decade low -ECRI

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSNAT00457020081114

NEW YORK, Nov 14 (Reuters) - A measure of future economic growth in the United States edged up in the previous week but its annualized growth rate set a fresh record low, indicating the U.S. economy is falling at its fastest pace in at least six decades, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said the annualized growth rate of its Weekly Leading Index slid from minus 24.6 percent to negative 25.9 percent, its historic lowest, according to ECRI data recorded since January 1949.

"With WLI growth continuing to plumb new lows, not only is no economic recovery on the horizon, but the economy is falling off a cliff at its fastest pace in at least six decades," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

...more...

[ozymandius]

3. Oil steady at $58, underpinned by stock rally

SINGAPORE – Oil prices were steady around $58 a barrel Friday in Asia after rising overnight as traders took their cue from a jump in global stock markets.

Light, sweet crude for December delivery was down 24 cents to $58.00 a barrel, after rising as high as $59.96 in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The crude futures contract overnight rose $2.08 to settle at $58.24 after dipping to $54.67, a price last seen in January 2007.

....

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces about 40 percent of world supplies, has said it may cut production by the end of this month if prices continue to fall. The group's next official meeting is on Dec. 17.

OPEC cut output quotas by 1.5 million barrels last month on top of an earlier 520,000 barrel reduction, moves the market has largely brushed off.

....

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures fell 0.75 cents to $1.89 a gallon, while gasoline prices dropped 1.46 cents to $1.27 a gallon. Natural gas for December delivery was up 4.7 cents at $6.37 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Citigroup to cut at least 10,000 jobs: report

(Reuters) – Citigroup Inc (C.N) is cutting at least 10,000 jobs in its investment bank and other divisions throughout the world, the Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with the matter.

Citigroup Chief Executive Vikram Pandit and his deputies have instructed managers to slash their budgets for employee compensation by at least 25 percent, the paper said citing the people.

.....

Citigroup announced last month it cut 11,000 jobs in the third quarter, bringing the total number of job cuts in 2008 to 23,000.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081114/bs_nm/us_citigroup_jobcuts

[UpInArms]

29. Citigroup slashing jobs, raising card rates: report

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Citigroup-slashing-jobs-raising-card/story.aspx?guid=%7BB84C542E%2D4153%2D48FF%2D9497%2DE406C01EC9DA%7D

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Citigroup has begun big layoffs and is expected to cut at least 10,000 jobs around the globe, a published report said Friday.

A day after the bank's shares sunk under $10 for the first time since the 1990s, Chief Executive Vikram Pandit and his deputies instructed officials to slash their budgets for employee compensation by at least 25%, The Wall street Journal reported. See related story.

The paper added that managers could minimize the number of employees they fire by dismissing higher-paid traders and bankers.

Citi's (C: 9.45, -0.19, -2.0%) layoffs are the latest in a brutal round of job cuts across the financial industry. The cuts have been sparked by unprecedented losses due to bad credit investments, as well as the subsequent precipitous drop in banking and other financial services business amid the worst economic conditions in 70 years.

Citigroup has lost more than $20 billion in the last year, and has cut more than 20,000 jobs in that same period.

Citi's global staff stands at about 352,000 now, and the firm has a target to trim that to about 290,000 by next year, the report said, citing a person familiar with the company's plans.

...more...

[Roland99]

53. "rates are being raised by an average of three percentage points,"

But...but...but...the Fed rate is down near zero?

I loves me some usury.

[Dr.Phool]

86. They should have saved a lot in postage already.

Until I signed up on the FTC's opt out site, my wife and I weregetting over 20 solicitations a week from Citi alone. No shit.

[ozymandius]

5. Jobless claims hit 25-year high, imports plunge

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The number of U.S. workers drawing jobless benefits hit a 25-year high this month and imports suffered a record fall in September, according to reports on Thursday that underscored a rapid drop-off in the U.S. economy.

The number of workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose by an unexpectedly steep 32,000 last week to 516,000, the highest since the weeks following the September 11, 2001 attacks on the United States, the Labor Department said.

The number of workers still on the benefit rolls after drawing an initial week of aid hit 3.9 million in the week to November 1, the highest since January 1983.

.....

A report from the Commerce Department showed a record drop in the price of imported oil and the lowest auto imports since February 2004, factors that helped trim the monthly trade gap to $56.5 billion, slightly below the $57 billion expected on Wall Street.

U.S. imports from China hit a record $33.1 billion in September, but imports from the European Union fell 3.8 percent and imports from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries slumped 27.1 percent as the cost of imported oil fell by a record $12.41 per barrel in September.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081113/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_jobless_10

[ozymandius]

6. October budget deficit hits record of $237.2B

WASHINGTON – The federal government began the new budget year with a record deficit of $237.2 billion, reflecting the billions of dollars the government has started to pay out to rescue the financial system.

The Treasury Department said Thursday that the deficit for the first month in the new budget year was the highest monthly imbalance on record. It was far bigger than analysts expected, over four times larger than the October 2007 deficit of $56.8 billion, and more than half the total for all of last year.

.....

The deficit also was boosted by the government's move to purchase $21.5 billion in mortgage-backed securities, an effort the Bush administration announced when it took control of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in September because of rising losses in that market.

Government receipts in October totaled $164.8 billion, down 7.5 percent from October 2007, reflecting the impact on revenues from the slumping economy.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081114/ap_on_bi_go_ec_fi/budget_deficit

[tclambert]

15. That's one month?

I had to read that twice to make sure it wasn't annualized somehow. $237.2B in one month is staggering. I had been resisting the "worst president ever" movement. I thought Bush was maybe only the third worst. But I think in the last couple of months, he's surged ahead, or behind. Congratulations, Mr. President, the surge is working. Worst. President. Ever.

[ozymandius]

7. Bush resists European calls for state intervention

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has used the financial crisis and the absence of leadership in the United States during the presidential elections to claim a role for himself as a savior of the financial system.

.....

In his role as the current holder of the European Union's rotating presidency, Sarkozy has teamed with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown to push for reforms to the world's financial architecture. The two also have taken the lead on European measures to stabilize banks and try to restore confidence to markets.

.....

In his Sarkozy's view, what is needed is nothing less than a new version of the 1944 Bretton Woods conference that brought together Allied leaders and established a post-World War II global monetary and financial order, laying foundations for the International Monetary Fund and a currency exchange regime that lasted for three decades.

.....

EU leaders will call on Saturday's summit to agree immediately on five principles: submit ratings agencies to more surveillance; align accounting standards; close loopholes; set banking codes of conduct to reduce excessive risk-taking; and ask the International Monetary Fund to suggest ways of calming the turmoil.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/11/14/america/NA-US-Meltdown-Summit-Sarkozy.php

[Ghost Dog]

51. Let's be clear: That is a typical AP wire "story" (ie.

US-centric rightist spin).

[ozymandius]

8. Europe Economy Falls Into First Recession in 15 Years (Update1)

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Europe's economy fell into its first recession in 15 years in the third quarter, paving the way for deeper cuts to interest rates and taxes amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

Gross domestic product in the 15 euro nations shrank 0.2 percent from the previous three months, when it also contracted 0.2 percent, the European Union's Luxembourg-based statistics office said today. The two quarters of contraction -- the result of this year's surges in the cost of credit, the euro and oil prices -- mark the first recession since the single currency was introduced almost a decade ago.

....

The German economy, Europe's largest, contracted by a bigger-than-expected 0.5 percent in the third quarter, confirming it has entered its worst recession in at least 12 years, its government said yesterday.

Joining it and Ireland is Italy, which slipped into its fourth recession in less than a decade, while Spain's economy contracted for the first time in 15 years. Growth in the Netherlands stagnated for a second straight quarter.

Bucking the trend, French GDP unexpectedly expanded 0.1 percent from the second quarter, when it shrank 0.3 percent. Economists had forecast a contraction of 0.1 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aycN4Fh5lv6Y&refer=home

[54anickel]

12. Heh, I guess welcoming greedy, US based multinationals and their free-market ways will do that to

an economy. :eyes:

[54anickel]

13. Oh, but I'm not bitter or anything like that. n/t ;- )

[Tansy_Gold]

20. Why not? I am! ;-) n/t

.

[Ghost Dog]

98. .

:smoke:

[Ghost Dog]

97. .

:)

[ozymandius]

9. Textron, AEP, Honda Ask Fed for Access to Commercial-Paper Fund

Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- A group of companies including Textron Inc., Home Depot Inc. and Honda Motor Co. are pressing the Federal Reserve to expand purchases of commercial paper to include them, two people briefed on the matter said.

The coalition, which also counts Dow Chemical Co. and Nissan Motor Co. as members, wants the Fed to go beyond top-rated paper and buy debt with the second-highest grade, the people said on condition of anonymity. American Electric Power Co. Chief Financial Officer Holly Koeppel said the group is seeking to add more companies and preparing a letter to outline its case.

While accepting lower-grade debt could reduce borrowing costs for a broader group of companies, it would also expose the taxpayer to greater risk. The request is one of a number of attempts to get a share of federal rescues, with industries from automakers to heating-oil retailers seeking funds.

....

Second-tier issuers of commercial paper, debt that matures in nine months or less and is a form of IOU for day-to-day expenses such as payrolls and rent, argue they're disadvantaged by the Fed's new Commercial Paper Funding Facility.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a6.zX8Uh5DcI&refer=exclusive

---

If I were in the position to be asked, my answer would be, "No." This is mission creep. It's sad that these companies are on hard times. However - their request is inappropriate to the intent of the program.

[Demeter]

90. Home Depot is a Red State Corporation, But Honda?

Adding new dimensions to the concept of Chutzpah.

[ozymandius]

10. Krugman: Return of Depression Economics

From Professor Krugman: Depression Economics Returns. A few excerpts:

I don’t expect another Great Depression ... We are ... well into the realm of what I call depression economics. By that I mean a state of affairs like that of the 1930s in which the usual tools of economic policy — above all, the Federal Reserve’s ability to pump up the economy by cutting interest rates — have lost all traction. When depression economics prevails, the usual rules of economic policy no longer apply: virtue becomes vice, caution is risky and prudence is folly.

To see what I’m talking about, consider the implications of the latest piece of terrible economic news: Thursday’s report on new claims for unemployment insurance, which have now passed the half-million mark. Bad as this report was, viewed in isolation it might not seem catastrophic. After all, it was in the same ballpark as numbers reached during the 2001 recession and the 1990-1991 recession, both of which ended up being relatively mild by historical standards (although in each case it took a long time before the job market recovered).

But on both of these earlier occasions the standard policy response to a weak economy — a cut in the federal funds rate, the interest rate most directly affected by Fed policy — was still available. Today, it isn’t: the effective federal funds rate (as opposed to the official target, which for technical reasons has become meaningless) has averaged less than 0.3 percent in recent days. Basically, there’s nothing left to cut.

Giving credit where due: This was posted at Calculated Risk.

[GliderGuider]

14. Pollyannas, the lot of them.

Krugman doesn't get it. Not even Nouriel Roubini, the doomer's doomer of economists, truly comprehends what's about to happen.

The current economic discussion utterly fails to take into account the effects of the rapidly worsening global energy situation (aka Peak Oil) and the consequences that the draining of the financial capital pool will have for our ability to bring oil alternatives on-line in time. Without oil or a substitute, economic activity will be constrained by both financial and energy shortages, rather than just one or the other. Most energy substitutes that have the scalability to meet the challenge (e.g. a switch to electric cars and electric rail) require serious capital to fund the infrastructure build-out, and capital is in shorter supply every day. The double whammy of oil shortages and capital shortages could even result in a worsening of global warming if we switch to cheap coal rather than expensive renewables to replace our declining oil supplies. We have at most 5 years to address this situation. At this time there aren't even any coherent plans in place and money is rapidly becoming scarce.

Then there's the global food situation that is being exacerbated by climate change (which is causing worsening droughts and floods), the rising cost of fertilizer and the depletion of irrigation water. The global economic recession will have amplifying consequences for regional food shortages, since lower economic activity and the implosion of global credit markets will have a braking effect on donations for international food aid. This is already happening to Zimbabwe. If a region's food supply declines, so does its economic capacity, as an underfed workforce is much less productive. That in turn makes the recession or depression worse.

All these factors will work together over the next two to five years, and the interaction has the potential of creating a level of global distress that is an order of magnitude worse than a simple recession, no matter whether it looks like a V, a U, a W or an L.

This is a serious shitstorm we're facing. I expect the situation to transition from recession to depression rather suddenly, though I don't know when. What I've read over the last four years has led me to the conclusion that that by the end of 2010 we'll probably be in the first year of a global depression, one that could last several decades due to worsening energy shortages and the rising relative cost of raw materials. In fact it's entirely possible that the situation by 2020 could be the new normal -- the words "recession" and "depression" imply recovery, which IMO is not at all guaranteed in this situation.

[DemReadingDU]

31. Thanks, I'm with you. I see it coming, yet I'm powerless to convince

I am unable to convince family and friends to prepare for the future. Most everyone is still enjoying the party, and thinking the party is going to last forever. Well, it's not, and we will all suffer the worst 'hangover' ever. And probably sooner than later.

The best I could do was to share the excellent series of the Chris Martenson Crash Course videos, http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

The other thing was getting family/friends to get some cash out of the banks, in case the banks temporarily close down, and ATMs not workable.

[Changenow]

34. Cash won't even help when inflation goes

out of control.

Who knows what to do?

[GliderGuider]

36. Cash will help you, though, if we're facing deflation.

I don't think we're going to see significant inflation, and that scares the crap out of me. Instead, I'm convinced we're going to see a massive global deflationary event, starting with a debt shock within the next two years and spiraling into a deflationary depression as debt and credit (the modern electronic version of money) evaporates. In that situation, those with cash may do very well.

[DemReadingDU]

38. For the short term, it's not inflation that is worrisome, but deflation

Countries around the world are lowering rates to stimulate the economy, to prevent deflation.

Banks are not lending, it's getting harder to get a loan.

Companies are announcing more and more layoffs.

If no job, no income, no savings, no credit, how does anyone buy anything?

In inflation, people can get lots of credit, can buy lots of stuff. I don't see us having inflation for awhile.

[Changenow]

50. Printing more money

will eventually lead to inflation, but I agree we will have short term deflation.

[Demeter]

92. They Currently Can't Print It Fast Enough to Counteract the "Asset" Deflation in Phony "Securities"

It's like trying to fill a broken pitcher.

[ozone_man]

44. An L depression.

The economy may be going down and staying down. The new normal. Also, it may coincide with the end of cheap energy from fossil fuel, whether by scarcity or by impact on the environment makes it illegal.

I agree that we're heading into a deflationary depression. A global one. All prices are dropping, on everything, which should offer a few clues. And the Fed can't lower rates any more, since they're effectively at 0% already. Our credit limit has been reached, so the house of cards built on debt must come down.

If Krugman was any good at economics, he could have seen and warned what was coming five years ago. Even Warren Buffet in 2003 said that derivatives were "weapons of mass destruction". But, essentially all economists are tools of the market. They will finally say that the sky is falling, when it actually is.

As bad as things look, there is some chance that a rapid change in funding alternative energy development can work. But we're so burdened with debt now, that investment like that may be too limited to be effective. Instead of bailing out Wall Street with $2 Trillion, we could be spending that on green energy development, infrastructure renovation, national health care, etc. But we will at least find comfort in the fact that we will have saved the banks, if nothing else.

[DemReadingDU]

47. toon, save the banks

[Hugin]

39. Ahem... "2001 recession... job market recovered"

Dear Nobel Laureate Krugman,

The job market NEVER recovered after the 2001 recession. Well, perhaps for economists as they
seem convinced it did... Sadly, tho, it's a myth constantly reinforced by statements such as this.

*tsk*

Signed,

Underemployed in Middle-Class

[Tansy_Gold]

54. As one of those (millions of) underemployed -- DITTO (n/t)

.

[Selatius]

73. I agree. There's a reason why it was called the "jobless recovery." nt

[GliderGuider]

75. Yep. I got caught in the tech wreck

I've been underemployed ever since, though I often think I was overemployed in the telecom industry.

[ozymandius]

11. Why Henry Paulson should be fired, given job as dirt wallower

Banks Say Plan to Guarantee Their Debt is Flawed, Ask For a Better Deal

In the wake of the Treasury Department foisting equity infusions onto nine banks, not all of which wanted or needed them, the industry has decided to get in front of these initiatives. The latest bright idea. of guarantees of bank debt, gets a thumbs down from the intended beneficiaries. But sadly, it isn't the general concept they object to, but the particular version on the table. Predictably, they want to pay less and get more.

One wonders if the government bond guarantee program was designed with intent so as not to be used, but be ready in sketch form to be sweetened if conditions deteriorated further (note this plan is under the aegis of the FDIC, and Shiela Bair appears to be straightforward, but the concept was likely cooked up at the Treasury and the details negotiated with the FDIC).

From Bloomberg:

JPMorgan Chase & Co., Bank of America Corp. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. are among banks that told the government its program to back their bonds is flawed because it doesn't have a strong enough guarantee.

The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. guarantee for repayments in default needs to be clearer, fees are too high and banks need more freedom on whether to opt in, according to a letter from law firm Sullivan & Cromwell LLP posted on the agency's Web site on behalf of nine banks....

The comments shed light on why almost a month after the government placed its guarantee behind new bank bonds, no U.S. company has yet tested the market. By contrast, under a similar program in the U.K., banks have issued the equivalent of 13.9 billion pounds ($20.6 billion) of government-guaranteed bonds.....

The letter cited the U.K. program as a model because it offers ``an unconditional guarantee'' of principal and interest when due. Without a similar guarantee, U.S. banks will be ``at a significant disadvantage'' to their U.K. and European counterparts because their government-backed debt will be more expensive for borrowers and less attractive to investors, the letter said.

Yves here. This logic helped get the US in trouble in the first place, a regulatory race to the bottom. Now we are getting it on the subsidiy side, as the industry hoovers up everything it can. And by all accounts, banks have excess reserves at the Fed. suggesting that they are in no mood to lend, independent of the government guarantees. The bond issuance argument is a red herring.

more...

[Demeter]

93. Paulson Should Be Fired Because He Is a Crook

and prosecuted, but I'm not holding my breath.

I can hear him whining now: "Brownie did it, and got praised. Rumsfeld, Tenet and Co got Medals of Freedom! Impeachment was taken off the table, by a Democrat, no less! So what could it matter, if I steal a small fortune? I'll share it with my buddies!"

[tclambert]

16. Legal question about Enron execs.

Every day you include "Enron execs conveniently deceased = 3" at the beginning of your post. I remember when Ken Lay "conveniently" had a heart attack between conviction and sentencing, they said since he died before sentencing it effectively nullified the conviction, and the government would not be able to seek restitution for his crimes as part of his sentence. No sentencing, no restitution. Made sense. And I started wondering how he managed to induce a heart attack so neatly.

The news also reported, though, that a civil suit against Ken Lay could proceed. I haven't heard squat about it since. It seemed odd that a lawsuit against a dead guy could go forward. How can he defend himself? The suit may technically be against his estate. Still, it seems like constitutional issues might make it difficult.

Have you heard any news on this? Do the people defrauded by the "conveniently deceased" Enron execs have any chance of recovering a small fraction of their losses?

[Pale Blue Dot]

17. U.S. Steel Plans 675 Layoffs Amid Slowdown

U.S. Steel Corp., the U.S.'s largest steelmaker by production, said that it will lay off 675 unionized workers, or about 2% of its staff, due to slackening demand for steel products.

Nearly every steelmaker in the past several weeks has announced production cutbacks as skittish customers, including appliance, machinery and auto makers, curtail steel purchases as their sales plummet amid a slowing world economy. Steelmakers are now turning their attention to layoffs, which are likely to spread through the industry in coming months.

Earlier this week, AK Steel Holding Corp. cut production at two of its U.S. plants that primarily serve the automotive and appliance markets because of what it called a "sudden global downturn." The company expects that the plants, which will operate with a reduced crew, could be back in full production in January, if conditions warrant.

ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker by output, said that it will cut production by 35% across its operations globally because of weak demand.

"The steel business is bad," said Gerald Dickey, spokesman for United Steelworkers. "We consider it a real possibility that there will be more layoffs."

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122663473217427697.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

[DemReadingDU]

35. AK Steel is near where I live, as well as DHL & GM plants

All these layoffs are devastating in SW Ohio

[Festivito]

18. Debt: 11/12/2008 10,618,508,632,584.50 (DOWN 3,714,566,098.00) (3rd low report.)

(Last big borrowing occurred last Thursday--reported on last Friday--a Friday news dump style. They need to borrow just to run government after all. Thanks for the star anonymous.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,358,806,971,888.52 + 4,259,701,660,695.98
UP 116,562,137.90 + DOWN 3,831,128,235.94
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 14,733,054,558.11.
The average for the last 30 days would be 10,804,240,009.28.
The average for the last 33 days would be 9,822,036,372.07.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 29 reports in 43 days of FY2009 averaging 20.48B$ per report, 13.81B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 69 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
11/12/2008 10,618,508,632,584.50 GWB (UP 4,890,312,836,402.93 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 593,783,735,672.10 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/22/2008 +035,922,282,339.83 ------------**********
10/23/2008 +024,603,393,878.21 ------------**********
10/24/2008 -000,913,156,317.59 -----------
10/27/2008 -000,114,166,180.08 ----------- Mon
10/28/2008 -000,028,404,616.62 -----------
10/29/2008 +000,066,775,718.47 ------------*******
10/30/2008 +008,339,266,330.60 ------------*********
10/31/2008 +045,215,290,348.09 ------------**********
11/03/2008 -000,572,269,490.77 ----------- Mon
11/04/2008 +000,314,469,904.16 ------------********
11/05/2008 -000,077,530,396.02 -----------
11/06/2008 +056,540,493,221.63 ------------**********
11/07/2008 -000,129,624,570.02 -----------
11/10/2008 -000,178,876,517.33 ----------- Mon
11/12/2008 +000,116,562,137.90 ------------********

169,104,505,790.46 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $953,876,829,325.43 in last 55 days.
That's 954B$ in 55 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 94% of that highest year ever only in 55 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 55 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3598849&mesg_id=3598868

[Festivito]

104. Debt: 11/13/2008 10,578,639,151,691.10 (DOWN 39,869,480,893.40) (38B back?!.)

(Last Friday dump we saw 56B was borrowed, now 39B comes back to US, 2B from FICA. )

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,320,976,663,656.70 + 4,257,662,488,034.43
DOWN 37,830,308,231.82 + DOWN 2,039,172,661.55
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 34 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 12,359,031,277.61.
The average for the last 30 days would be 9,475,257,312.83.
The average for the last 34 days would be 8,360,521,158.38.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 30 reports in 44 days of FY2009 averaging 18.46B$ per report, 12.59B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 68 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.7 and 11.4T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
11/13/2008 10,578,639,151,691.10 GWB (UP 4,850,443,355,509.53 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 553,914,254,778.70 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/23/2008 +024,603,393,878.21 ------------**********
10/24/2008 -000,913,156,317.59 -----------
10/27/2008 -000,114,166,180.08 ----------- Mon
10/28/2008 -000,028,404,616.62 -----------
10/29/2008 +000,066,775,718.47 ------------*******
10/30/2008 +008,339,266,330.60 ------------*********
10/31/2008 +045,215,290,348.09 ------------**********
11/03/2008 -000,572,269,490.77 ----------- Mon
11/04/2008 +000,314,469,904.16 ------------********
11/05/2008 -000,077,530,396.02 -----------
11/06/2008 +056,540,493,221.63 ------------**********
11/07/2008 -000,129,624,570.02 -----------
11/10/2008 -000,178,876,517.33 ----------- Mon
11/12/2008 +000,116,562,137.90 ------------********
11/13/2008 -037,830,308,231.82 -----------

95,351,915,218.81 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start 10/18/2008.
US borrowed $914,007,348,432.03 in last 56 days.
That's 914B$ in 56 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 90% of that highest year ever only in 56 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 56 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) YESTERDAY'S POST LINK:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3600742&mesg_id=3600792

[Dr.Phool]

19. Hangover from yesterday's recovery party on Wall street?

Futures don't look so bright. I know they're not a very accurate predictor anymore, but.

7:51am

Dow...-120.00
S&P...- 10.60
NazQuack..-4.75

[UpInArms]

21. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 86.799 Change +0.354 (+0.46%)

U.S. Empire Manufacturing Expect to Hit Record Low, Will the Dollar Pull Back?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/trading_reports/trading_news_reports/U_S__Empire_Manufacturing_Expect_to_1226667416832.html



October 2008 U.S. Empire Manufacturing
The Empire manufacturing index slipped to its lowest level since recordkeeping began in 2001 as mounting fears of a global meltdown pushed firms to cutback on production. The survey fell to -24.6 from -7.4 in September as firms became fearful that the global economy may face a recession. The breakdown of the report showed that new orders plunged to -20.45 from 4.38 in the previous month, while the employment component fell for the fourth consecutive month in October. The data suggests that firms are aggressively cutting back on employment and production as growth prospects for the domestic economy turns bleak, and may lower production even further over the coming months as exports demands falter.



...more...

Sharp US Dollar Buying Suggests Reversal Against Euro Imminent

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Sharp_US_Dollar_Buying_Suggests_1226589289867.html



How do we interpret the SSI? The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.

...more...

[UpInArms]

22. Sun Microsystems says to cut about 5,000 to 6,000 jobs

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4AD3M320081114

(Reuters) - Sun Microsystems Inc said on Friday it would cut 5,000 to 6,000 jobs. Highlights:

* Aligns business with global economic climate and amplifies growth

opportunities across open source platforms

* Says job cuts represents about 15 to 18 percent of the global workforce

* Says expects to incur total charges in the range of $500 to $600 million over

the next twelve months

* Says about $375 to $450 million of charges will be incurred within its

current fiscal year 2009

* Says expects to begin realizing cost savings in Q3

* Says rich green, executive VP of software, has chosen to leave the company

...a bit more...

[UpInArms]

23. Chopper Ben spews forth with his very small brain disengaged

01. Bernanke: Acute need for close ties among central bankers
8:30 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

02. Bernanke: Global central banks will remain in close contact
8:30 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

03. Bernanke: Recent econ data 'confirm challenges remain'
8:30 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

04. Bernanke: Central banks stand ready to take more action
8:30 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

05. Bernanke: 'Tentative' improvement in credit market condition
8:30 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

[UpInArms]

26. Bernanke sees some credit improvement but challenges remain

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Bernanke-sees-some-credit-improvement/story.aspx?guid=%7B2BB2334F%2D5783%2D4EE2%2DA504%2D25914C136203%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- There have been some fleeting signs of improvement in credit market conditions, but market volatility and the latest reports on economic conditions make clear that challenges remain for the global economy, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke said Friday. In a speech at the European Central Bank in Frankfurt, Bernanke praised the close ties that he has developed with ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet and other central bankers. He said that policy makers will remain in close contact and stand ready to take additional action should conditions warrant.

[UpInArms]

28. Today's Comedic Routine: U.S. pitches free markets ahead of G20 summit

dragging out the dead horse and rabid dog show for one last encore?

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE4AC81S20081114?sp=true

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - As world leaders headed to Washington for a weekend summit on the global financial crisis, the United States made a pitch for modest reforms instead of the stiffer regulation that some European countries favor.

"The crisis was not a failure of the free market system," President George W. Bush told a New York audience on Thursday ahead of a Friday night dinner and meeting on Saturday of the heads of the Group of 20 developed and emerging nations.

The greater threat to prosperity is "not too little government involvement, it is too much government involvement in the market," Bush said.

The message may ring hollow with some G20 countries that say under-regulated U.S. financial industries effectively exported to the global economy a crisis that originated in reckless U.S. mortgage lending.

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said last weekend in Sao Paulo, where G20 finance ministers met, that the world economic order "collapsed like a house of cards" because of a "dogmatic faith in non-intervention in markets."

...more...

[Dr.Phool]

45. What? No more tax cuts for the rich?

Why, I've never!

I feel so abused.

[Joe Chi Minh]

82. I read Bush said that too much regulation would be worse than deregulation!

Which has to be a international, all-time, star quote.

Seeking infinite expansion is obviously the thing to do, as far as Bush is concerned, not adopting a conservative approach to the planet's resources.

[UpInArms]

32. Most Merrill financial advisers accept BofA bonus-WSJ

http://www.reuters.com/article/etfNews/idUSBNG12071320081114

Nov 14 (Reuters) - Ninety percent of Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) financial advisers who were offered bonuses to stay on with Bank of America Corp (BAC.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) had signed up for them as of late Thursday, the Wall Street Journal said, citing people familiar with the firm.

Last month, BofA reached out to Merrill Lynch's 15,500 financial advisers, offering retention packages to the group which the bank has described as Merrill's "crown jewel".

Friday is the deadline for the brokers to accept the offer, the paper said.

...more...

:wtf:

Aren't these people just freakin' lucky to have jobs? So what is with the "bonus" shit?

[DU GrovelBot]

33. ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##

==================
GROVELBOT.EXE v4.1
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This week is our fourth quarter 2008 fund drive. Democratic Underground is
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[Hugin]

37. Open the Pod Bay Door Grovelbot...

:lol:

[Tansy_Gold]

56. Not be rude, Grovelbot, but you happened to "post" right after

the notice of the bonuses being paid to the Merrill Lynch financial advisors.

Just sayin'. . . . . . .


The totally tapped out


Tansy Gold

[Dr.Phool]

62. You didn't get a bonus?

Don't worry. You'll probably get an extra pony.

On the downside, they ain't cheap to feed.

[Tansy_Gold]

66. Dogs ain't cheap either, and I've got four. Don't need no ponies!

Wouldn't give 'em up for nothin', however. They're my family.

The boyfriend, OTOH, not so much. :evilgrin:



Tansy Gold

[AnneD]

74. Ouch...

that's gota hurt.

[Tansy_Gold]

78. Don't hurt none at all; "he ain't heavy, he's my brother" kinda thing

All four are rescues of one sort or another. One picked up as a stray, another someone couldn't afford, another someone didn't have room for, and one just barked too much. My choice to take them in, and no regrets.

[Dr.Phool]

87. The black one could be a twin of my 13yo Stoli.

Had to have her put down in May. Couldn't get up on her own anymore. She was a Golden-Newfoundland mix. Loved her.

Hopefully, I'll be back in Florida to see my Fudd again tomorrow (and my wife). I might get another one (dog) this week.

[Tansy_Gold]

88. I know how you feel, Doc

I still haven't got over the loss of my 13 yr old blue heeler in August '04. I still miss him.

Miss Mattie is of unknown heritage and unknown age. Picked up off the streets in NJ, she was rescued from the pound by a no-kill shelter, which is where my daughter got her in October '04. All skin and bones and matted black hair -- hence the name -- she was to be a companion for their golden pup. But Mattie barked too much so Mattie got put on an airplane to Phoenix the summer of '05 just a few weeks before my husband passed away. Almost his last coherent words were "Shut up, Mattie!"

A friend who has a huge rescue operation recently acquired a registered smooth-coat retriever who looks EXACTLY like Mattie, except Angel has slightly longer, floppier ears.

Miss Mattie still barks too much, and she plays mom to the others. They're my kids and I love 'em to pieces even when they won't let me take a well-deserved (imo) nap, like this afternoon.



TG

[Demeter]

94. I Think AnneD Was Expressing Sympathy for the Boy Friend

but you probably knew that anyway....

[Tansy_Gold]

95. Who? Oh, him. ;-)

Oh, I knew that!


But we were on the subject of ponies. . . . and dogs. And I know that there are so many pets that get left behind when owners simply can't care for them any more as a result of this shitty economy. Horses, dogs, cats, you name it.

BF (sometimes referred to as "InSignificant Other") is more than capable of taking care of himself. The dogs aren't. If I were one to believe in a god, I'd believe that she made dogs and other animals in order to remind us that we have not a dominion over but a stewardship for the earth and our fellow creatures. We've royally fucked up that trust, and we may end up paying dearly for it.


TG

[UpInArms]

40. PPT meeting - looks like we get to be in the derivative biz

02. President' Working Group leads new derivative regulation
9:30 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

03. White House seeks more transparency in derivative market
9:30 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

04. Federal agencies close holes in derivative regulation
9:30 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

05. First govt. step on derivatives is a central counterparty
9:30 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

06. White House moves to strengthen oversight of derivatives
9:30 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

[Hugin]

42. I'm still trying to get my mind around this one from yesterday...

"01. Bush: Too much regulation worse than too little regulation
2:13 PM ET, Nov 13, 2008"

Anyone care to deconstruct this... Anyone?

[UpInArms]

43. see my post #28

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3600742&mesg_id=3600854

for a real puker on that one

:hi:

[Dr.Phool]

46. The new republican meme.

They see regulation coming down the pike. But, they feel if it's anything more than window dressing, it's too much.

Warning: Bank robbers claim that too many cops will result in more robberies. Will contribute to too much money sitting around in banks, unused. will collapse economy.

[TalkingDog]

69. or to quote the infamous Willie Sutton

when he was asked,"Why do you rob banks?"

"Because, that's where the money is."

[Roland99]

41. 9:35am - Markets open for the dumping

DJIA 8,707.66 -127.59 -1.44%
Nasdaq 1,563.46 -33.24 -2.08%
S&P 500 895.36 -15.93 -1.75%
Global Dow 1,467.59 +8.08 +0.55%
Dow Util 372.50 -7.21 -1.90%
NYSE 5,607.55 -108.24 -1.89%
AMEX 1,321.81 -45.81 -3.35%
Russell 2000 483.03 -8.20 -1.67%
Semcond 746.50 +40.00 +5.67%
30-Year Bond 4.22% -0.11 -2.56%
10-Year Bond 3.73% -0.09 -2.38%

[Roland99]

52. 11:15am - Double (your losses) or nothing?

DJIA 8,608.10 -227.15 -2.57%
Nasdaq 1,540.24 -56.46 -3.54%
S&P 500 883.77 -27.52 -3.02%
Global Dow 1,451.86 -7.65 -0.52%
Dow Util 364.84 -14.87 -3.92%
NYSE 5,516.21 -199.58 -3.49%
AMEX 1,325.34 -42.28 -3.09%
Russell 2000 471.72 -19.51 -3.97%
Semcond 739.50 +34.50 +4.89%
Gold $739.70 +34.70
30-Year Bond 4.22% -0.12 -2.68%
10-Year Bond 3.71% -0.11 -2.83%

[TrogL]

55. Loonie Watch

Highlights

Current:

Loonie: Toronto Stock Exchange:

30-day and 90-day vs.greenback:



30-day vs. Euro, Yen, UK Pound and Swiss Franc




Currency Comparison: http://members.shaw.ca/trogl/looniewatch.html

Detailed analysis: http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD

Up-to-the-minute graph: http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=CME_CD.Y%24%24&v=s&w=5&t=l&a=1

Historical values http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2008-10-03 Friday, October 3 0.924642 USD
2008-10-06 Monday, October 6 0.906865 USD
2008-10-07 Tuesday, October 7 0.904568 USD
2008-10-08 Wednesday, October 8 0.889205 USD
2008-10-09 Thursday, October 9 0.870853 USD
2008-10-10 Friday, October 10 0.840336 USD
2008-10-13 Monday, October 13 0.840336 USD
2008-10-14 Tuesday, October 14 0.862143 USD
2008-10-15 Wednesday, October 15 0.84717 USD
2008-10-16 Thursday, October 16 0.83661 USD
2008-10-17 Friday, October 17 0.846024 USD
2008-10-20 Monday, October 20 0.834934 USD
2008-10-21 Tuesday, October 21 0.819135 USD
2008-10-22 Wednesday, October 22 0.800256 USD
2008-10-23 Thursday, October 23 0.795355 USD
2008-10-24 Friday, October 24 0.785238 USD
2008-10-27 Monday, October 27 0.773096 USD
2008-10-28 Tuesday, October 28 0.772678 USD
2008-10-29 Wednesday, October 29 0.812876 USD
2008-10-30 Thursday, October 30 0.817728 USD
2008-10-31 Friday, October 31 0.817728 USD
2008-11-03 Monday, November 3 0.842744 USD
2008-11-04 Tuesday, November 4 0.869414 USD
2008-11-05 Wednesday, November 5 0.862813 USD
2008-11-06 Thursday, November 6 0.84631 USD
2008-11-07 Friday, November 7 0.845309 USD
2008-11-10 Monday, November 10 0.83696 USD
2008-11-11 Tuesday, November 11 0.83696 USD
2008-11-12 Wednesday, November 12 0.813273 USD
2008-11-13 Thursday, November 13 0.812282 USD

Current values

http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

Market            Open   High    Low   Last  Change    Pct Time
CD.Y$$ Cash     0.8201 0.8216 0.8180 0.8180 +0.0023 +0.28% 11:01 
CD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.8105 0.8135 0.8025 0.8150 +0.0070 +0.87% set 15:10 
CD.H09 Mar 2009 0.8099 0.8099 0.8099 0.8153 +0.0074 +0.91% set 15:10 
CD.M09 Jun 2009 0.9880 0.9880 0.9880 0.8156 +0.0071 +0.87% set 15:10 
CD.U09 Sep 2009 0.9350        0.9340 0.8159 +0.0071 +0.87% set 15:10 
CD.Z09 Dec 2009 0.7000 0.7000 0.7000 0.8159 +0.0077 +0.94% set 15:10 
CD.H10 Mar 2010 0.8800 0.8800 0.8800 0.8159 +0.0070 +0.86% set 15:10 
 

Other combinations: (http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?c=currencies)

Market          Open    High    Low     Last    Change   Pct 
AUSTRALIAN $/CANADIAN $ (CME:ACD)
ACD.Z08 Dec 2008 0.7979 0.7979 0.7979 0.7979 +0.0097 +1.22%   
BRITISH POUND/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:MP)
MP.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 1.4707 1.4828 1.4653 1.4828 +0.0178 +1.20%  
EURO/BRITISH POUND (NYBOT:GB)
GB.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 0.8562 0.8580 0.8562 0.8580 -0.0068 -0.81%     
EURO/JAPANESE YEN (NYBOT:EJ)
EJ.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 123.450 123.610 121.490 122.360 +0.605 +0.51%      
EURO/US$ (SMALL) (NYBOT:EO)
EO.Z08.E Dec 2008 (E) 1.2673 1.2718 1.2602 1.2656 -0.0021 -0.16%   

Blather (from http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=CME_CD)

The December Canadian Dollar was higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates some of Wednesday's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.14. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near- term. If December extends Wednesday's decline, October's low crossing at 76.86 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.60 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.14. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 83.60. First support is Thursday's low crossing at 80.25. Second support is October's low crossing at 76.86.

Analysis

This morning's drive-in economics report was primarily about the official Recession in Euro-based economies as well as the perfect storm down in the States. The invisible elephant in the room is that Canada is NOT currently in recession even with falling oil prices. What I think most people have forgotten is that not many years ago, $20.00 a barrel was considered "high".

Poor Harper. His degree is in economics and he's actually pretty good at it. The problem is, he's NOT a Straussian supply-sider, he's a closet Keynesian and yesterday he said the "deficit" word, violating a campaign promise. Now everybody's mad at him.

[Pale Blue Dot]

58. Focus on the Family planning layoffs

Focus on the Family plans an unspecified number of layoffs, and will be announcing specifics in the next few of days, Focus spokesman Gary Schneeberger said Thursday.

This comes on the heels of Focus' announcement in October that 46 employees would be reassigned or laid off next year due to a restructuring of its distribution arm. Focus has a staff of about 1,200 people.

http://www.gazette.com/articles/focus_43380___article.html/family_layoffs.html

This economy's so bad it's even affecting total douchebags.

[TalkingDog]

71. Thank goodness they aren't firing the folks

who do those HILARIOUS radio plays. When I travel through WV on occassion, that will be the only thing the radio picks up for miles.

They are little morality plays straight (and I do mean Straight) out of the 50's "father knows best, but in a weird, creepily repressed way" and features an upright piano for incidental music.

I laugh and laugh and laugh.....

[UpInArms]

59. Bush nominates Neil Barofsky to oversee bailout: report

03. Barofsky is an assistant U.S attorney general in NY: report
10:31 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

04. Bush nominates Neil Barofsky to oversee bailout: report
10:30 AM ET, Nov 14, 2008

[Demeter]

61. Looks Like a Catch-Up Weekend for WE

Is it just me, or are other people experiencing dizzy spells and nausea?

[UpInArms]

63. 12:01 downward motion accelerating

Dow 8,518.97 316.28 (3.58%)
Nasdaq 1,525.79 70.91 (4.44%)
S&P 500 875.07 36.22 (3.97%)
10-Yr Bond 3.707% 0.111

NYSE Volume 2,242,089,750
Nasdaq Volume 790,219,812.5

11:30 am : Stocks post steep losses, falling to session lows. Treasuries are recouping some of the decline seen yesterday, with the 10-year note up 37 ticks, sending its yield down to 3.71%.

Gold prices are in rally mode, climbing 5.2% to $741.40 per barrel.

The White House said it is talking to Congress about accelerating the $25 billion auto loan package that was already appropriated, Reuters reports. GM (GM 3.00, +0.05) is trading with a slight gain while Ford (F 1.85, -0.5) posts a loss.DJ30 -267.67 NASDAQ -60.97 SP500 -31.38 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1958/561/692 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2430/507/412 mln

11:00 am : Oil prices are sagging after a strong rebound in the prior session. Crude oil futures are currently down 2.7% to trade near $56.60 per barrel. Oil was down to $56.16 earlier, which marked a session low.

The drop in oil has caused considerable weakness in the energy sector (-4.3%). Energy finished the prior session with an 11% advance, more than any other sector, but is currently the worst performer this session.

Weakness in the energy sector is widespread. Integrated oil and gas companies are down 3.9%; oil and gas explorers are down 4.9%; oil and gas equipment companies are down 6.7%.DJ30 -227.39 NASDAQ -54.11 SP500 -27.32 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 1894/553/554 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 2396/498/331 mln

[Dr.Phool]

72. I can buy a barrel of gold for $740?

I'll take some!

:rofl:

[UpInArms]

64. Americans teetering on $14 trillion debt pile

http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-CreditCrisis/idUSTRE4AD3A620081114

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Free-spending U.S. consumers who bought everything from homes to groceries on borrowed money are running out of credit, and paying the bills will cost the world's biggest economy and its trading partners dearly.

The housing bust has exposed just how much Americans were relying on rising home values to pad spending and replace traditional savings. During the five-year real estate boom that ended in late 2006, household wealth expanded, retail sales grew faster than income, and savings dwindled.

But as banks restrict access to mortgages, auto loans and credit cards, consumers are altering their spending behavior so rapidly that companies cannot adjust fast enough.

Banks that eagerly handed out credit cards during the good times are reducing credit limits and setting asides billions of dollars to cover losses as customers miss payments.

U.S. automakers are warning of a near collapse in demand because would-be buyers are unable or unwilling to get loans.

Stores are bracing for the worst holiday season sales performance in at least 18 years.

...more...

[Roland99]

65. 12:17pm - Triple down or nothing!

DJIA 8,474.93 -360.32 -4.08%
Nasdaq 1,521.33 -75.37 -4.72%
S&P 500 870.52 -40.77 -4.47%
Global Dow 1,442.07 -17.44 -1.19%
Dow Util 361.43 -18.28 -4.81%
NYSE 5,440.51 -275.28 -4.82%
AMEX 1,314.09 -53.53 -3.91%
Russell 2000 464.74 -26.49 -5.39%
Semcond 740.80 +35.80 +5.08%
30-Year Bond 4.21% -0.12 -2.75%
10-Year Bond 3.71% -0.10 -2.72%

[specimenfred1984]

67. DOW dn 320 as of now, is that a "buying opportunity for bargain hunters"?

Personally, I like hunting for bargains from helicopters like they hunt for moose in Alaska! Then, after I've successfully hunted down the bargain, I like to pose for pictures with the bargain with my smiling face hugging the bloodied and lifeless neck of the bargain.

[MadinMo]

76. Are those bargains antlered?

[specimenfred1984]

70. No jobs, no money for shopping but somehow "bargain hunters" have trillions

and the gov't has trillions for bailouts and we have trillions for fake wars: everyone has trillions of dollars, weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

[Roland99]

77. 2:18pm - Paulson speaks, Markets rejoice!

DJIA 8,758.63 -76.62 -0.87%
Nasdaq 1,563.58 -33.12 -2.07%
S&P 500 897.84 -13.45 -1.48%
Global Dow 1,464.20 +4.69 +0.32%
Dow Util 372.83 -6.88 -1.81%
NYSE 5,607.79 -108.00 -1.89%
AMEX 1,335.68 -31.94 -2.34%
Russell 2000 474.06 -17.17 -3.50%
Semcond 742.50 +37.50 +5.32%
30-Year Bond 4.24% -0.10 -2.26%
10-Year Bond 3.75% -0.06 -1.68%

[UpInArms]

80. US's Paulson-adding bank capital needed-CNBC

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN1444811120081114

WASHINGTON, Nov 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said on Friday recapitalizing banks was the most effective use of a $700 billion financial bailout war chest, but acknowledged the U.S. reputation was tarnished by the financial crisis that has spread around the world.

"We have in many ways humiliated ourselves as a nation with some of the problems that have taken place here," Paulson said in an interview with CNBC television.

He defended his decision to switch the focus of the rescue package, the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), from buying unsellable mortgage-related assets to injecting capital into banks, saying market conditions had worsened.

"The major purpose of the TARP was to stabilize the financial system, first and foremost, to prevent a collapse ... number two, to get lending going. I think the system has been stabilized," Paulson said.

Government purchases of capital in healthy banks are likely to restore lending, he said.

...more...

:huh:

[specimenfred1984]

79. Picked up some great bargains today, Berkshire Hathaway was a cheap...

$101,000 a share: http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=BRK-A

I almost paid $140,000 a share a couple of months ago, what a bargain!

[Dr.Phool]

81. You devil you.

The charts tell me to hold out for 95k. You'll be sorry!

[TheWatcher]

83. Something Very Bad is going to happen sooner or later.

You simply can't keep having these kind of violent swings in the Market without something breaking sooner or later.

There have been two days in the past month where the intraday swings in the Dow were larger than the value of the ENTIRE INDEX back in 1982. 800 Point swings are becoming a normal occurrence.

If you had long trade over the past two days and timed it well enough, 2 straight days on the long side would have made 1300 point end to end. That is a good bull market gain for a year.

But that is NOT the sign of a healthy Market.

What is being done here is complete insanity.

But Watcher you say, We've already Crashed almost 50% from the All-Time Highs. Something Very Bad has ALREADY happened.

Buckle-Up, Marketeers.

This thing isn't even close to resolving itself.

[Dr.Phool]

85. On nothing, but nothing, but BAD economic news.

X-mas shopping season starts in two weeks, nobody is hiring, and nobody is buying.

If it wasn't for the obvious manipulation, the market should be dropping faster than Saddam on his last ride.

[TheWatcher]

99. My two downside targets are 6000 and 4500

But to be honest Good Doctor, we should already BE there, and should have been there a long time ago.

The manipulation, although blatantly obvious now to the point even a dog couldn't ignore it, has been at work since the 2002 low.

With 60-70% of Market action on a given day being done by "Program Trading", along with the Usual Suspects magically lifting the Markets at key inflection points with Futures Purchasing to goose the Market, they have made this game go longer than it EVER should have.

Everything seems to be run now by Bubbles, Schemes, Programs, Rumors, and Psychology.

We don't have a real economy any more and we haven't for quite awhile.

TPTB are doing the only thing left to do that they know to do.

Steal everything they can, and make empty promises to the Public to save them, while pickpocketing what they have left.

Peace Be to you and Take Care this weekend, as we wait for the next round of the Great Carnival Of Bullshit. :hi:

[Roland99]

84. The End of Wall Street's Boom

Saw this linked in someone's journal off the front page.

What a great read into how Wall Street screwed America, and itself.

http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom#page1

[Karenina]

100. THAT is indeed a GREAT READ!!!

[Roland99]

102. I feel like reading it again even!

[CatholicEdHead]

91. Wow, nice selloff in the last 15min or so today

Eek

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^DJI#chart1:symbol=^dji;range=1d;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

[UpInArms]

96. ending this day o' yuck

Dow 8,497.31 337.94 (3.82%)
Nasdaq 1,516.85 79.85 (5.00%)
S&P 500 873.29 38.00 (4.17%)
10-Yr Bond 3.75% 0.068

NYSE Volume 5,987,291,500
Nasdaq Volume 2,312,075,250

4:30 pm : Stocks traded with losses for the majority of the session, but gradually climbed to positive territory late in afternoon trading. The rally proved unsustainable, though, as selling pressure intensified to rapidly send the stock market back to session lows.

Stocks were down 4.2% for the week. The S&P 500 is 6.7% above its five-year low, which was taken out in the prior session.

Trading remains volatile as investors continue looking for a bottom amid ongoing uncertainty in financial markets and global economic conditions. However, if anything is certain at this point, the bottom won't be marked by a clear V-shape.

In case they had forgotten, investors were reminded about the global economy's tenuous standing when leading handset company Nokia (NOK 12.59, -1.56) stated it expects fourth quarter industry volume to decline. The firm sees softer consumer spending amid weak economic conditions, while trade partners are challenged by credit conditions.

Weak economic conditions also have retailers fretting over the holiday shopping season. Kohl's (KSS 29.09, -1.48), Nordstrom (JWN 11.74, -1.22), JCPenney (JCP 17.27, -2.01), and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 17.79, -4.65) each issued downside guidance for the fourth quarter.

The glum outlook mirrors a 2.8% decline in October total retail sales. Excluding autos, retail sales declined 2.2%. Both were worse than expected.

The downbeat retail sales data set a weak foundation for the PCE component of fourth quarter GDP. Moreover, the data validate the idea that fourth quarter GDP will be well below the original 0.3% decline reported for the third quarter.

In other economic data, October import prices were up 6.7% year-over-year, missing the consensus of an 8.2% year-over-year increase.

September business inventories were down 0.2%, which is below the consensus forecast of a 0.1% decline. The prior reading was revised lower to a 0.2% increase.

Losses among stocks were deep and broad based Friday. Only the consumer staples sector (-2.9%) finished with a loss of less than 3%.

The financial sector (-5.2%) continued to underperform with more than 90% of the financial firms in the S&P 500 posting a decline.

Energy stocks (-4.0%) were also hit hard. The sector put together an 11% advance in the prior session, but with crude oil prices slipping more than 3% investors moved to take some profits off the table. Crude closed the session around $56.30 per barrel.

Weakness in equities sent government securities higher. The 10-year Treasury Note advanced 37 ticks, which was its largest advance this week. The Note currently yields 3.71%.DJ30 -337.94 NASDAQ -79.85 NQ100 -4.9% R2K -7.1% SP400 -5.3% SP500 -38.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 558/2.30 bln/2169 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 623/1.45 bln/2447