STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday December 26

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday December 26, 2008

DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 25

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U.S. FUTURES &
MARKETS INDICATORS>
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL WHEN BUSH TOOK OFFICE on January 22, 2001
Dow - 10,578.24
Nasdaq - 2,757.91
S&P 500 - 1,342.90
Oil - $27.69/bbl
Gold - $266.70/oz.
$1 USD = EUR 1.06678
$1 USD = JPY 116.6200

In recognition of those prescient of the Dow's precipitous return of Bush values (9/29/08): JuneBourder and AnneD

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON December 24, 2008

Dow... 8,468.48 +48.99 (+0.58%)
Nasdaq... 1,524.90 +3.36 (+0.22%)
S&P 500... 868.15 +4.99 (+0.58%)
Gold future... 848.00 +9.90 (+1.17%)
30-Year Bond 2.66% +0.02 (+0.84%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.18% +0.02 (+0.74%)






GOLD,EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. I hope you had a wonderful day off.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

It was quiet around our place. Most of my family is older and we did not reproduce very much when we were younger. So there were only two young'uns under the age of fifteen running around. So anyone who wanted could take a long sit and a deep breath.

:hi: Ozy

[Demeter]

55. It was a Much Better Christmas This Year

For one thing, we have Obama to look forward to. And maybe then Bush can get his just rewards.

We actually had our traditional Christmas feast, and the tree was half-decorated before we ran out of steam (or over-ate).

But best of all, my younger daughter hooked up the computer! I'm BAAAACK! And so look forward to the resuscitated Weekend Economists. With over 200 emails sitting in the inbox (which got down to 20 before I was cut off by technological failure), I think there might be something interesting to post!

Did you hear that it was Madoff's children that turned him in? I was shocked--wonder what Daddy Dearest did to tick off the progeny.

In the outdoors, it's going up to 55F this weekend, so some of the 3 foot snow banks and inch-thick ice will melt--maybe even all of it, if the rain comes. At which point I will be posting from a small skiff in the Huron River, no doubt.

We've had enough weather in the last two months to last me all year. Somebody turn off that machine, please?

[ozymandius]

2. Market WrapUp

Inflation is Unavoidable
BY JAIME E. CARRASCO CFP

What the rational investor has to understand is that the coming inflation is inevitable. It is a catch-22 situation for the US Government as money printing is the only thing the government can do to keep the system going, and this will only result in inflation. The longer we wait for inflation to start, the bigger the reward as it just means that more money entered the system. It's a conundrum that will make those properly positioned very wealthy, but it requires patience.

As for when? I think sooner rather than later, though I do not expect the media to mention it for quite a while. The market is already starting to give signals that are very encouraging. Gold is signaling it, as every high and low is higher and its price has strengthened above $800. As a matter of fact, gold is outperforming against all currencies except the Yen and the $US, and is definitely one of the best performing asset classes this year. Furthermore, gold producers stock prices have strengthened, and they are just starting to reflect much higher gold prices. Agnico Eagle is a very good example having hit a low of $28 in late October and is now at $52. Likewise, other precious metal prices are moving higher, also anticipating greater inflation. We are also witnessing these same movements in the agriculture sector where grain prices are showing nice gains off their lows, and the producers are catching up to reflect higher commodity prices.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Tansy_Gold]

17. This is exactly what raises my blood pressure

"It's a conundrum that will make those properly positioned very wealthy, but it requires patience."


No, Mr. Carrasco, it requires that one already have significant wealth. The poor, the working class, have no "patience," as you so neatly put it. That kind of language allows you and your ilk to later say it was the victims' fault, they weren't "patient" enough. This absolves you and your filthy and undeservedly rich pals of any guilt, any blame, any participation in the destruction of millions upon millions of lives. You and yours will live in opulent and oblivious splendor of truly mythical proportions, while the rest of us live like brutes, scratching out a meager existence for the few short years of our lives.

And it is articles like this, seemingly just informative and non-ideological and non-political, that perpetuate that all-American Calvinist creed of greed and the righteousness of obscene wealth. "Patience is a virtue," we all know, and so if we are "virtuous" we will be rewarded. And by the same token, those who are not rewarded must perforce not be virtuous. It's their own fault.


Impatient and unvirtuous but also not greedy



Tansy Gold

[Hugin]

21. Hunger tends to win out over 'patience'.

As anyone can plainly see... Anyone with a conscience that is.

Very good post Tansy_Gold.

Be sure to add it to your extensive Journal! ;)

[Loge23]

49. Perfect inflation storm

The Financial Sense guys just want to sell metals - that's what they do, but piles of fresh money do ususally indicate that we'll all need more dollars to pay for things. The caveat now is the oversupply of goods, which is largely responsible for the delationary trend we're in. But what about when the warehouses empty out, manufacturing is behind the curve, and the demand increases?
This will bring significant market inflationary pressure on top of the "worth-less" piles of money. Which in turn will mean less money for retooling and reloading the supply chain.
I'm trying to be optimistic about our recovery prospects, but anyway you dice it, it still works out to a systemic failure of our economic foundation.
Greed, a deadly sin for sure.

[ozymandius]

3. There are no goobermental reports today. (nt)

[ozymandius]

4. Oil rebounds from sharp fall previous session

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rebounded above $36 a barrel Friday in Asia from a sharp fall the previous trading day as investors braced for more signs that a global economic slowdown deepened in the fourth quarter.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery rose $1.22 to $36.57 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midafternoon in Singapore. The contract on Wednesday fell $3.63 to settle at $35.35. Trading was closed Thursday for Christmas.

....

OPEC production cuts have failed to boost prices, as investors focus on collapsing consumer demand. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for about 40 percent of global supply, said last week it would slash production by 2.2 million barrels a day, its largest cutback ever, adding to a 1.5 million output quotas reduction in November.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures were steady at 79 cents a gallon. Heating oil gained 3.87 cents to $1.24 a gallon while natural gas for January delivery fell 3.1 cents to $5.88 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

5. After-Christmas shopping unlikely to save season

PORTLAND, Ore. – There's holiday joy and post-holiday blues, but for the nation's retailers it's all been one big downer.

The holiday shopping season was one of the most dismal in years and even the after-Christmas period, when consumers normally rush to stores to use gift cards and seize on big sales, isn't expected to be enough to save retailers from a terrible year.

....

According to preliminary data from SpendingPulse — a division of MasterCard Advisors that tracks total sales paid for by credit card, checks and cash — retail sales fell between 5.5 percent and 8 percent during the holiday season compared with last year. Excluding auto and gas sales, retail sales fell between 2 percent and 4 percent, according to SpendingPulse.

A better indicator of how retailers fared won't arrive until Jan. 8, when major stores report same-store sales, or sales at locations open at least a year, for December.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081226/ap_on_bi_ge/after_christmas_shopping

[UpInArms]

31. Data shows sinking retail sales in Nov., Dec.: Journal

06. Data shows sinking retail sales in Nov., Dec.: Journal
3:01 AM ET, Dec 26, 2008

[ozymandius]

6. Japan factory output has biggest fall on record

TOKYO – Japan's contracting economy got a slew of bad news Friday when government figures showed that industrial production plunged by its biggest margin on record in November, the jobless rate jumped and household spending fell.

Output at the nation's manufacturers tumbled 8.1 percent from October, the largest drop since Tokyo began measuring such data in 1953, as Japan's automakers and others slashed production to cope with slowing global demand. A government survey predicted further declines of 8 percent in December and 2.1 percent in January.

....

The drop in factory production is nearly double the previous biggest decline of 4.3 percent in January 2001, according to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. Earlier this week, trade data showed that exports plunged a record 26.7 percent in November.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081226/ap_on_bi_ge/as_japan_economy

[ozymandius]

7. Asian markets mixed in quiet holiday trade

HONG KONG – Asian markets were mixed in quiet holiday trade Friday amid new evidence that companies and consumers alike were struggling as the global economy slumps.

....

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 stock average advanced 140.02 points, or 1.6 percent, to 8,739.52 as some investors picked up beaten-down shares, shrugging off dismal data about manufactures, as well as joblessness and household spending.

Taiwan's benchmark also gained. South Korea's Kospi fell 0.9 percent to 1,117.86, while India's main stock index gave up its early advance to trade lower.

Shanghai's key index fluctuated, closing almost unchanged at 1,851.52 amid gloom over earnings prospects for many listed firms.

Hong Kong and Australian markets were closed, as were those in Britain, Germany and France.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081226/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

8. Madoff Scam Will Hit the Feds Too

Regarding your editorial "To Catch a Thief" (Dec 18): One of the biggest losers overlooked in Bernard Madoff's alleged $50 billion Ponzi scheme will be the U.S. government. Assuming Mr. Madoff's compounded returns over the last five years have been 12%, investors have paid up to $9.4 billion in income taxes on these phantom earnings. Many of these taxpayers are eligible to recover a good percentage of this amount in the form of tax rebates. The remaining principal amount of realized losses (approximately $24 billion) will result in an additional recouping of up to $10 billion in future tax write-offs against earnings. These figures suggest a total government net tax loss of almost $20 billion.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123025901310234853.html

[Ghost Dog]

41. There's a theory here that maybe the 'Madoff Scam' isn't what it seems:

It's maybe a double-bluff: http://www.iamthewitness.com/news/2008.12.18-The.Madoff.Double-Bluff.html

The theory says that, no way were major financial institutions fooled by a Ponzi scheme. There was no Ponzi scheme. Madoff's hedge fund simply lost its bets. So, normally, his investors would have lost, period. But now, by declaring himself a fraud, his investors can claim some protection under various governmental 'fraud protection schemes' and claw some of their losses back (from taxpayers).

Any thoughts?

[UpInArms]

42. I find the guy's name so fitting Made Off

:shrug:

[Hugin]

45. Interesting theory...

And considering the level of squawking associated with this... Possibly true.

:tinfoilhat:

[54anickel]

48. Well he has been report to have a close association with the regulation authorities. Could very

well be. We, as a nation, were gullible enough to buy into the lies spewing forth from TPTB thus far.

[Danascot]

62. The question is: Where's the money?

In a Ponzi scheme, the con makes off with the money; so it ends up somewhere. If Madoff had actually taken the scammed billions it would leave an awfully big lump somewhere. But there's been no mention that it went anywhere. If it had, there would be talk of getting it back.

Instead it simply evaporated, like a race track ticket that finished out of the money. (... plus those who insured the racetrack tout's bets are broke too and can't cover the bad bets.)

So I agree with you ... the Ponzi scheme gambit just doesn't wash. I don't know the real reason but your theory that his investors might have some recourse if it's declared a fraud is certainly a possibility.

Beyond that, there's something fishy about his "confession" and the involvement of his sons. Why didn't he just declare himself a bank and apply for a TARP bailout? (Just kidding)

There's more going on here than meets the eye. Eventually we may even find out what it is.

[Tansy_Gold]

63. I've been asking the same question.

Maybe if enough of "the right people" start asking it, we'll get some answers.

You wanna hold your breath with me?



Tansy Gold

[DemReadingDU]

65. There never was any money, it was all an illusion

Mark-to-fantasy models based on greed.


:shrug:

[Tansy_Gold]

66. No, there WAS money. Real money. The investors' money.

Wiesel's money was real. Lautenberg's money was real. And one has to assume that others, even if only via middle men and other money managers, invested "real" money somewhere along the line. And even if SOME of it wasn't real, it at least existed on paper.

What assests does Madoff show personally? What about his family? His employees?

There are bank records; these people don't deal in cash.

HOWEVER, if there really was no money, then there should be no SIPC bailout.



This goes back to the basic scam that Charlie Keating pulled with Lincoln Savings. Inflate the value of a few real investments and use the phony values to leverage the acquisition of real assets. In Keating's case, it was land for development at first, then he went into luxury hotels and resorts because they produced a steady and very lucrative cash flow. His problem was that he got greedy and he wanted to skim off the top of the profits long before there were any. Some of his investments, in fact, ultimately because quite valuable.

But there was always money to be traced. As the late Mark Felt advised, follow the money.


Tansy Gold, who has too little to follow

[DemReadingDU]

67. I get confused becuase so much money is electronic

If I can't hold cash in my hand, or see the things I have bought with the cash (no loans), then where is the money? What really makes me angry is people who took physical cash to an investor, and now have nothing to show for it. There is something inherently wrong with our money system if a person can't get their physical cash.

As our country gets deeper into recession/depression, and use of credit cards become very limited, if people don't have physical cash in-hand (or withdraw cash from bank), what are they going to do?

The more reading I do, the more troubled, and angry, I get.

[Tansy_Gold]

69. More troubled and angry indeed

I agree with you, and I think the conundrum is part and parcel of the equation.

We really don't know what's "real" money and what isn't any more, and we don't have a Solomon to determine the difference. Unlike the baby with two mothers claiming it, the "lost" fortunes can easily be split in half, with one claimant receiving half of what was rightfully all theirs and the other claimant receiving half of something that was never theirs in the first place.

I think, though, that if the whole derivatives bubble had been allowed to burst and unwind on its own, the phoney money would have revealed itself and been resolved in a kind of nothing gained therefore nothing lost scenario. From what I can understand, that seems to be at the bottom of the whole $700T "notional" value of the derivatives market: It's not really all there.

When the Fed and the feds threw $700 billion at AIG and CountryWide and Bear Stearns and Merrill Lynch and whoever else they have or are going to have bailed out, some of the phoney money got swapped for real money, and now it's a mess more tangled than the flying spaghetti monster. (oops, should that be Flying Spaghetti Monster?)

The main thing is, though, that as far as the Madoff incident is concerned, know one seems to know where ANY of the money went, real or imaginary. And if anyone does know, they aren't saying, at least not publicly.

Ultimately, as you point out, it has to end up in something more or less tangible. When the buyer defaults on the mortgage, someone is going to end up owning that real property, that house. The consumers who are defaulting on credit card debt have something to show for their "investment" of the borrowed cash -- whether it's items they bought like shoes or binoculars, or meals they ate or vacations they went on. Some, of course, can be recovered, but the gas in the SUV is gone and the flight to Hawaii is gone, and so the credit card issuer as well as the "investor" who invested in that debt is S.O.L.

And what happens when $10,000 of credit card debt is securitized and becomes $10M of credit default swaps or some other esoteric investment vehicle? Who insures that? How does the Hawaii vacation become some tangible, recoverable item? It doesn't, any more than Thursday's rainbow over Superstition Mountain.

But those who "invested" in those EIVs now want real money out of them. Where is it going to come from? Taxpayers? Taxpayers who no longer have jobs? Taxpayers who are dying because they can't get healthcare? Taxpayers who are in jail because they've shoplifted $4.50 worth of cold medicine?

There's still, even here on DU, strong resistance to the idea that the only way to "save" the American economy is to take back the outrageous ill-gotten wealth that has been systemically and systematically funneled into the hands of a very few people. Whether through restoration of inheritance and capital gains taxes and/or higher income tax rates on higher incomes or revamping the exemptions made for hedge fund incomes, I don't know and I don't much care. But I do sincerely believe that the root of all this economic misery is that the system has been modified to pour enormous sums of wealth into the hands of very few, and they aren't really complaining. Oh, the ones who lost a few billion to Bernie Madoff may be griping, but they're only doing so in order to get a free hand-out -- and maybe a better return than Bernie promised -- from the taxpayers. Those who lost a billion will scream far louder than those who lost $15 million (like Elie Wiesel), and yet they are also those who can far more easily afford the loss, even such a colossal loss.

Unless and until we the people redevelop a mindset that we are NOT the wealthy and we are NOT likely to become the wealthy who need protection from the tax man, we cannot hope to achieve anything resembling a strong middle class again. Unless and until we examine and then shed the religious doctrines that equate wealth with God's Blessing, we cannot hope to get out of this mess.



Tansy Gold

[bstender]

70. makes sense

my first thought was 'wow, how could it get so big for so long?'

looking quickly on the web i found that the judge approved it for insurance protection, but the limit is 100,000 for anyone who invested in the last year. maybe he started gaming the system extra heavy as the economy started tanking last december. but all of the investment houses and hedge funds are leveraged to points that could be contrued as a ponzi scheme. noone can seriously expect 100:1 leverage to hold up forever. eventually it collapses and the late adopters take the hit. just like the recent housing ponzi scheme. who really thought it would rise forever?

[Ghost Dog]

9. Rouble devalued again after Russian oil nears $30

Fri, Dec 26 2008, 10:21 GMT MOSCOW, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Russia's central bank allowed the eighth mini rouble devaluation of the month on Friday, a day after the price for the country's main export commodity, oil, neared $30 per barrel, the lowest level since 2004.

The collapse of oil and other commodities prices coupled with the global economic slowdown and a capital flight from emerging markets turned the rouble in a sure-fire depreciation bet from the previous appreciation bet in less than six months.

The central bank has spent more than $100 billion defending the currency in the last 4-1/2 months to prevent a run on banks and spreading the panic among the population, which still has sour memories of saving losses in the 1990s and Soviet times.

Faced with an economy potentially heading for its first recession in a decade, Russia started on a gradual depreciation path six weeks ago to preserve reserves -- still the world's third largest at $451 billion - which will be needed to support the real economy.

Russian authorities, which have initially denied they would allow the rouble to fall sharply, have softened the tone in the past weeks, saying the rouble cannot remain strong in a situation of a downturn on global commodities markets.

By 0952 GMT the rouble was trading at 34.31 versus a euro-dollar basket, having broken through the 33.86 mark seen as the previous central bank's support level.

A source at the central bank confirmed that the rouble's trading corridor had been widened again, but gave no details.

"The central bank has weakened the rouble by 1.5 percent, and the new support level is seen at the 34.31 mark," said a trader at a major foreign bank in Moscow.

The rouble has weakened versus the euro-dollar basket by almost 13 percent since the bank started its mild rouble devaluation in September.

The rouble has eased below 29 per dollar on Friday and was traded at around 41 per euro on Friday.

/... http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?StoryId=f88ccaaf-7348-449a-b39f-98b797f608ea

[ozymandius]

10. Senators to press for answers from rescued banks

One of the first orders of business for the new Congress next month will be making sure that banks and other firms that received some of the $700-billion economic bailout reveal how they are spending it.

Under legislation proposed by Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.) and Olympia Snowe (R-Maine), firms receiving federal rescue money would be required to report their spending to the Treasury Department every three months.

And it would prohibit them from spending the taxpayer dollars on lobbying or political contributions.

The Senate did not take up the legislation this year, and the sponsors have long said they plan to pursue it when the 111th Congress convenes Jan. 6. They announced a "reintroduction" of it on Tuesday - a day after The Associated Press reported that the nation's largest banks say they can't track exactly how they're spending the money or simply refuse to discuss it.

http://www.newsday.com/services/newspaper/printedition/friday/business/ny-bzmid5977643dec26,0,1273835.story

[nc4bo]

20. I just don't understand why they have to wait for the "new Congress" to do what the old Congress

should have been doing all along.

It just doesn't make sense to me.

[Demeter]

56. Well, If Pelosi Loses Her Speakership, Many Possiblities Open Up

and with Rahm Emmanuel not there, we might get true representation in the Legislature.

Or maybe not. But there's hope.

[natrat]

37. sure....more bs

[truedelphi]

51. Isn't it though!?! n/t

[tclambert]

11. Morning, Ozy.

I hesitate to say, "Good morning," because it so seldom is lately.

25 days! I'll focus on that.

[ozymandius]

12. G'morning.

Twenty five days. Ever closer to Bush's eviction day. Every day seems brighter than the last.

[Hugin]

26. I shutter to think of the damage he's doing now... 25 days is a long time.

He's managed in only the past couple of days to render Emergency Medicine to the
whims of prejudice instead of regulation or in the interest of protecting victims
of violent crime.


Also, I've had reports of (and Congress may be complicit in this) unannounced changes in
Medicare benefits... Like for instance, Cancer Treatment Patients finding that their follow-up
treatments aren't covered and having to pay for them out-of-pocket AFTER the services have
been rendered. This horrifies me.

[DemReadingDU]

60. Saw a bumper sticker today. In large numbers 1-20-09

1-20-09
Bush's last day




:)

[radfringe]

18. I'll second that...but

to hell with a shoe...give him the boot..

[ozymandius]

13. Security Fraud Prosecutions Down 87% Since 2000

This year, the S.E.C. has brought the fewest number of securities fraud prosecutions since 1991. That’s according to the data that the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse (TRAC), a research group at Syracuse University, has amassed.

Soft on White Collar Crime, by the Numbers:

• 2008 had 133 prosecutions for securities fraud (thru Dec 1) versus 437 cases in 2000, a 70% drop. Form the peak of 513 in 2002, prosecutions are down by 74%;

• S.E.C. investigations that led to Justice Depart prosecutions for securities fraud dropped from 69 in 2000 to just 9 in 2007, a decline of 87%.

• Non criminal prosecutions (i.e., fines) for white collar crimes increased – from 503 in 2000 to 636 in 2008 – a 26.4% increase.

• “Deferred prosecution agreements” — essentially an agreement not to prosecute, so long as the accused stays out of further trouble;

....

Once again, we must point to our philosophical dispute with those who believe that markets can police themselves.

There is no such thing as Markets that “self-regulate.” Its the humans that require rules, regulations, supervision — not the markets. The phrase “self-regulate” is a non sequitur, a nonsense buzzword repeatedly by mindless parrots.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2008/12/security-fraud-prosecutions-down-87-since-2000/

[Tansy_Gold]

22. Not mindless. . . . .

[Demeter]

57. LOL!

:rofl:

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

32. 1991. Now, who woulda been prez then...?

:freak:

[tclambert]

61. Doesn't it warm your heart that people have become so much more honest?

:sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm: :sarcasm:

[Tansy_Gold]

64. .....

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

[Ghost Dog]

14. Global systemic crisis – New tipping-point in March 2009 (LEAP) (Repost from Wednesday)

LEAP/E2020 anticipates than the unfolding global systemic crisis will experience in March 2009 a new tipping point of similar magnitude to the September 2008 one. According to our team, at that period of the year, the general public will become aware of three major destabilizing processes at work in the global economy, i.e.:

• the length of the crisis
• the explosion of unemployment worldwide
• the risk of sudden collapse of all capital-based pension systems

A whole range of psychological factors will contribute to this tipping point: general awareness in Europe, America and Asia that the crisis has escaped from the control of every public authority, whether national or international; that it is severely affecting all regions of the world, even if some are more affected than others (see GEAB N°28); that it is directly hitting hundreds of millions of people in the “developed” world; and that it is only worsening as its consequences reveal throughout the real economy. National governments and international institutions only have three months left to prepare themselves to the next blow, one that could go along severe risks of social chaos. The countries which are not properly equipped to cope with a surge in unemployment and major risks on pensions will be seriously destabilized by this new public awareness.

...

As we already explained in GEAB N°28, the crisis will affect in different ways the different regions of the world. However, and LEAP/E2020 wishes to be very clear on that aspect, contrary to the dominant stance today (coming from those experts who denied the fact that a crisis was coming up three years ago, who denied that it was global two years ago, and who denied the fact that it was systemic six months ago), we anticipate that the minimum duration of the decanting phase of the crisis is 3 years (1). It shall be finished neither in spring 2009, nor in summer 2009, nor at the beginning of 2010. It is only towards the end of 2010 that the situation will start stabilizing again and improving a little in some regions of the world, i.e. Asia and the Eurozone, as well as in countries producing energy, mineral and food commodities (2). Elsewhere, it will continue; in particular in the US and UK, and in all the countries depending on their economy, were the duration could approximate a decade. In fact these countries should not expect any real return to growth before 2018.

...

Finally, among the various consequences of the crisis for dozens of millions of people in the US, Canada, UK, Japan, Netherlands and Denmark in particular (3), there is the fact that, from the end of the year 2008 onward, news about major losses on the part of the organizations in charge of managing the financial assets supposed to finance pensions will multiply. The OECD anticipates that pension funds will lose 4,000 billion USD in 2008 only (4). In the Netherlands (5) as well as in the United Kingdom (6), monitoring organizations recently blew the whistle asking for an emergency contribution reappraisal and a State intervention. In the United States, growing numbers of announcements call for contribution increases and benefit reductions (7), knowing that it is only in a few weeks time that most of these funds will start calculating their total losses (8). Most of them are still deluding themselves about their capacity to build up again their capital after the markets turn around. In March 2009, when pension fund managers, pensioners and governments will become simultaneously aware of the fact that the crisis is there to last, that it coincides with the « baby-boomer » generation’s age of retirement and that the markets will not resume their 2007 levels until many long years (9), chaos will flood this sector and governments will reach the moment when they will be compelled to nationalize all these funds. And Argentina, who took this decision a few months ago already, will appear a pioneer.

/... http://leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-30-is-available!-Global-systemic-crisis-New-tipping-point-in-March-2009-When-the-world-becomes-aware-that-this_a2567.html?PHPSESSID=1b35f747f8c8cdee7b8beb462c7de388

[Demeter]

58. And That's Only If Everything Goes Well--Otherwise, It's Going to Be Much Longer

So can the GOP Southern Senators, keep the crooks out of the pie.

[Festivito]

15. Debt: 12/23/2008 10,601,771,342,207.10 (UP 34,341,913,069.00) (Mostly FICA.)

(Except for FICA another almost imperceptible public debt change. And the opposite of last report's FICA. Good Boxing day to all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,359,897,239,853.44 + 4,241,874,102,353.67
UP 74,940,615.00 + UP 34,266,972,454.01
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is -2,440,786,671.40.
The average for the last 30 days would be -1,789,910,225.70.
The average for the last 32 days would be -1,678,040,836.59.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 57 reports in 84 days of FY2009 averaging 10.12B$ per report, 6.87B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 28 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.6 and 10.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
12/23/2008 10,601,771,342,207.10 GWB (UP 4,873,575,546,025.53 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 577,046,445,294.70 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/03/2008 -000,525,799,120.43 ---
12/04/2008 -022,902,653,130.86 -
12/05/2008 -000,187,074,568.06 ---
12/08/2008 -000,759,942,653.72 --- Mon
12/09/2008 +000,031,558,514.41 ------------*******
12/10/2008 +000,087,731,393.17 ------------*******
12/11/2008 -019,940,834,952.80 -
12/12/2008 -000,182,958,692.63 ---
12/15/2008 +027,986,876,028.13 ------------********** Mon
12/16/2008 +000,172,636,444.49 ------------********
12/17/2008 -000,200,107,551.80 ---
12/18/2008 -057,877,925,051.10 -
12/19/2008 -000,369,261,235.72 ---
12/22/2008 -000,588,542,244.94 --- Mon
12/23/2008 +000,074,940,615.00 ------------*******

-75,181,356,206.86 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $937,139,538,948.03 in last 96 days.
That's 937B$ in 96 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 92% of that highest year ever only in 96 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 96 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3658091&mesg_id=3658720

[Festivito]

68. Debt: 12/24/2008 10,586,589,075,929.30 (DOWN 15,182,266,277.80) (Mostly FICA.)

(Again, except for FICA, another almost imperceptible change.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,359,775,642,515.06 + 4,226,813,433,414.28
DOWN 121,597,338.38 + DOWN 15,060,668,939.39
(NOTE: Excel 2007 cannot handle ten-trillion plus to the penny. It zeroes the penny.)

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 300-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.33 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: THEIR SHARE IS TEN BUCKS in a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is a federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)
(I hate those end to end dollars to the moon and back, or years to spend $100/second. Just say'n)
If you read this and have a suggestion or comment, good or bad, I'd love to see it.

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is -3,075,925,218.22.
The average for the last 30 days would be -2,255,678,493.36.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 58 reports in 85 days of FY2009 averaging 9.69B$ per report, 6.61B$/day.

PROJECTION:
GWB** must relinquish the presidency in 27 days.
By that time the debt could be between 10.5 and 10.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
12/24/2008 10,586,589,075,929.30 GWB (UP 4,858,393,279,747.73 so far since Bush took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 561,864,179,016.90 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/04/2008 -022,902,653,130.86 -
12/05/2008 -000,187,074,568.06 ---
12/08/2008 -000,759,942,653.72 --- Mon
12/09/2008 +000,031,558,514.41 ------------*******
12/10/2008 +000,087,731,393.17 ------------*******
12/11/2008 -019,940,834,952.80 -
12/12/2008 -000,182,958,692.63 ---
12/15/2008 +027,986,876,028.13 ------------********** Mon
12/16/2008 +000,172,636,444.49 ------------********
12/17/2008 -000,200,107,551.80 ---
12/18/2008 -057,877,925,051.10 -
12/19/2008 -000,369,261,235.72 ---
12/22/2008 -000,588,542,244.94 --- Mon
12/23/2008 +000,074,940,615.00 ------------*******
12/24/2008 -000,121,597,338.38 ---

-74,777,154,424.81 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $921,957,272,670.23 in last 97 days.
That's 922B$ in 97 days.
More than any year ever, except last year, and it's 91% of that highest year ever only in 97 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 97 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3659622&mesg_id=3659665

[ozymandius]

16. Stock futures slightly up after poor holiday sales

NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street headed for a modestly higher open Friday, cautious about embarking on a year-end rally after dreary preliminary readings on holiday spending.

Not surprisingly, Americans spent much less on gifts this season than they did last year, according to SpendingPulse, a division of MasterCard Advisors. Retail sales dropped between 5.5 percent and 8 percent compared with last year, the data showed, or between 2 percent and 4 percent after stripping out auto and gas sales.

Personal consumption is a huge part of U.S. economic activity — comprising more than two-thirds of gross domestic product — so Wall Street is nervous that a more frugal consumer could keep the economy weak in 2009.

Ahead of the market's open, Dow Jones industrial average futures rose 7, or 0.08 percent, to 8,430. Standard & Poor's 500 index futures rose 1.40, or 0.16 percent, to 866.40, while Nasdaq 100 index futures rose 4.75, or 0.40 percent, to 1,184.75.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gHs5OM3gFG_DytQQZFbWfgPT08MAD95ACDA80

[Roland99]

23. DJIA +51 at 8am. My guess is not much action today either direction

and low volume.


Going out on a limb there, I know. ;-)

[ozymandius]

19. AIG unloads $16 Billion in credit default swaps on the Fed

It appears that the Fed's solution to the derivatives problem is to unload it onto the taxpayer.

American International Group retired $16 billion in credit default swaps, the contracts that almost caused the company's collapse, after buying the underlying securities with help from the Federal Reserve.

The fund created by the Fed and AIG to protect the insurer's customers from losses has now purchased collateralized debt obligations with a face value of about $62.1 billion, the firm said in a statement.
...
The fund, called Maiden Lane III, paid about $6.7 billion to the investors for the securities in the latest purchases. The counterparties were also able to keep more than $9 billion that AIG had posted in collateral, reimbursing them at face value for the assets. AIG "continues to analyze" ways to retire another $12.3 billion in contracts it sold, the company said.

more...

http://www.economicpopulist.org/?q=content/aig-unloads-16-billion-credit-default-swaps-fed

[Zynx]

24. The vast majority of Fed operations have very little to do with taxpayer money.

There are joint programs recently that have somewhat compromised this rule of thumb, but I wish most people, including reporters, would stop calling any help coming from the government "taxpayer money". Most of the Fed's operations are self-funding.

[Hugin]

27. From what I've been hearing they're way out of that 'self-funding'.

and have been so for quite awhile.

Why then did they so desperately need the $700 Billion bailout? It's because the Fed's in
over it's head. That's why.

[Zynx]

34. The Treasury has lent about $200 billion or something like that to the Fed.

However, what that has to do with was Bernanke's attempts to control money supply growth rather than simply printing money. He was recalibrating their balance sheet away from treasury securities and toward direct loans. However, even now very little taxpayer money is at risk.

[Hugin]

39. Is this why the Fed is now making noises about issuing it's own Debt....

in the form of so-called Fed-bills?

I thought that was the sole responsibility of the US Treasury.

[truedelphi]

53. Except that what has never happened before has occurred

By mid-October of 2008, financial tallies revealed that an economic tragedy was in the making.

Never before in the history of our nation had this happened:

As of Oct 23rd, new borrowed reserves and bank reserves equal nearly the same monetary base.

The Federal reserve now needs a reserve for the Reserve.

10/23 Bank reserves $ 328,597 million
Monetary Base $ 1,143,873 million
Non-borrowed Reserves (-362,550) million
TOTAL BORROWED AMOUNTS 611,147 million

given this scenario - the Fed is either printing this or swiping asets like Soical Security. As an indie contracter who has had to pay 15% of every dollar I have ever made into SS, I resent this greatly.

And if the Fed is printing the money, either the taxpayer is now going to be left holding full responsibility for the money printed,or inflation is gonna be sky high.
I see no way that there is any profit - not with Treasury bonds being issued at 0%.

[truedelphi]

52. And why shouldn't they?? Those hard working rich folks

Deserve to repair the harm done by the tragedies of market correction, and weird financial investment correction.

And where better than off the backs of the slacker lower income and middle incomed!!<Sarcasm>

[bain_sidhe]

54. let me guess... the counterparty was Goldman Sachs?

Remember the stories right after the first AIG bailout (jeebus, now we have to number them!) that Goldman Sachs was "heavily exposed" to AIG's problems? Or am I misunderstanding this sentence?:

The counterparties were also able to keep more than $9 billion that AIG had posted in collateral, reimbursing them at face value for the assets.

I read that to mean that the counterparty got $9 billion, right?

[Tansy_Gold]

25. The toon doesn't tell the whole story . . . .

The "goodies" falling out of the toe go. . . . . . .somewhere. They don't just fall on the floor and get carried away by the rats and cockroaches.


Oh, wait, yes they do.





TG

(edited to change "mice" to "rats," but I don't know how to do the strike-thru thing)

[UpInArms]

30. that strike-thru thing

is easy - use <s> and </s> only using the < > brackets instead of using the < >s

it is easy hard to be good

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

33. Or, if you like to type, you can bracket the word "strike."

That would be a smart stupid thing to do.

[UpInArms]

35. hmmmm.....

I learn something every day - I would never probably not have thought of that

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

38. The funny thing...

I've been typing it out like a genius fool all these years. Thanks for adding years to my keyboard. :thumbsup:

[Tansy_Gold]

36. Well, I *tried* that.

Both <s> and <strike> but it didn't work works now. Maybe it was because I was editing? Anyway, I figured that's what it was. Thanks to both of you for the assistance!



Tansy Gold, crazy but not stupid :evilgrin:

[Hugin]

40. Forgetting the back-slash before the closing tag word is a common error.

Even in my self-proclaimed magnificence, I've been known to do that... :7

In the olden DU days that would result in placing a strike through all of the text in
subsequent replies in a thread. :rofl:

[DemReadingDU]

28. GMAC Gets A Christmas Present

12/24/08 Fed approves auto loan financer's application to become bank holding company, which could lift GM shares Friday.

Congratulations, GMAC, you're a bank.

The U.S. Federal Reserve said Wednesday afternoon that it had approved GMAC Financial Services' request to become a bank holding company. The decision enables the struggling firm, which is the financial arm of General Motors to tap the government's $700.0 billion rescue fund, and bolsters GM's ability to survive.

more...
http://www.forbes.com/markets/2008/12/24/briefing-outlook-retail-markets-equity-cx_cg_1224markets20.html

[UpInArms]

43. GM shares jump after GMAC won bank holding status

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2629924520081226

DETROIT, Dec 26 (Reuters) - Shares of General Motors Corp (GM.N) jumped more than 18 percent on Friday after its auto-finance affiliate, GMAC, achieved eligibility for government loans, easing the risk of a failure that threatened to kill credit for GM dealers and buyers.

GMAC, which finances three-quarters of the inventory held by GM dealers, won approval from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday to become a bank holding company, gaining access to government lending programs and staving off bankruptcy.

The news came less than a week after GM and Chrysler LLC were promised $17.4 billion of government loans from the Treasury-run financial bailout fund.

"It's significant in terms of GM's ability to move cars," said Erich Merkle, an analyst at Crowe Horwath.

"Things are still pretty ugly out there (in terms of sales) but in terms of GM possibly filing for bankruptcy, in my mind that's not going to happen. The reason I'm saying this is what they're going with GMAC right now."

GM Chief Executive Rick Wagoner said last week that GMAC's difficulties were "hammering" the carmaker's ability to sell vehicles.

GMAC has struggled as the credit crunch lifted its borrowing costs sharply and the value of many of its assets plummeted. It has lost $7.9 billion over the last five quarters.

The lender's difficulties forced it to severely curtail financing for dealerships and for consumer purchases of new GM cars and trucks in recent months. Cutting back financing compounded the sales slump at GM, the No. 1 U.S. automaker, whose sales fell an eye-popping 41 percent in November.

...more...

[Hugin]

44. Hell's Guard Dog was pleased. n/t

[Tansy_Gold]

46. There were some comments posted at the tail end of 12/24 SMW...

regarding a CNN interview with economist Peter Schiff

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x3658091#3659315

I didn't have a chance to watch the video until this morning.

Now, the comments in the SMW thread were about whether or not Schiff had been "censored" by CNN for his comments about letting the failing companies -- mostly banks -- go ahead and fail, that the bailouts were wrong, that the execs were making too much, that the U.S. economy no longer is based on "making things."

He seemed to make it clear he's a staunch free market proponent, that government should allow the markets and the banks and the industries to regulate themselves, and he also reiterated the "union auto workers make too much" meme, which raised my red flags as to whether or not he was indeed KCabotMarx's :hi: hammer meeting the nail.

What Schiff seemed to do was intentionally and consciously ignore the line between the "phony" economy of the banks and investment scams and hedge funds and essentially equate them with the "real" economy symbolized, if you will, by GM. Like most ideologues, apparently, he's quite able to contradict himself within the space of a paragraph and not even recognize the contradiction: "You don't make anything any more! You have to revive your manufacturing base! You should have let GM fail!" EXCUSE ME?? ARE YOU NUTS? Oh, right, you're a free market ideologue so I rest my case.

The discussion over whether or not Schiff was intentionally cut off is merely, IMHO, a distraction. What he said BEFORE he was cut off needs to be examined. It's almost as if the most important parts of what he said are being ignored.

For instance, has anyone really examined WHY GM and Chrysler and to a lesser extent Ford are in such difficult straits? Is it because they produced a bad product that no one wanted? (Then why are Nissan and Toyota and Honda also experiencing sales slumps? Huh? Huh?) Or were they, and their workers, victims of the same greed ideology as the banks? Or were they, and primarily the workers, victims of the greed economic policies put in place by the free market proponents like Greenscam, Robbin' Rubin, Summers, etc?

Is the economic policy in fact intentionally killing the U.S. economy with the goal of literally killing off all but essential slave labor so the few remaining oligarchs can turn the lower 48 into one vast playground for the rich? They wait until the final collapse and then emerge from their "undisclosed locations" to resume the lives of oriental potentates? That is, after all, the logical conclusion of the plans they are currently carrying out, isn't it?

They could not see the world beyond the mountains, there was only a void of dakness and rock, but the darkness was hiding the ruins of a continent: the roofless homes, the rusting tractors, the lightless streets, the abandoned rail. . .

'The road is cleared,' said Galt. 'We are going back to the world.'

He raised his hand an over the desolate earth he traced in space the sign of the dollar.


In another thread somewhere yesterday, someone suggested that I was advocating armed insurrection as perhaps the only means of staving off such a collapse. In fact, I'm advocating no such thing, though I concede that's a distinct possibility even without my advocacy. But I do suggest that if there is no turn-around in the course plotted for the U.S. economy, there will indeed by such an insurrection. The question remains, however, who will emerge the victors.



Tansy Gold

[UpInArms]

29. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.755 Change -0.153 (-0.20%)

US Dollar Outlook Unchanged, Look for Short-Term Strength

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio2/US_Dollar_Outlook_Unchanged__Look_1230134332408.html

Our outlook for the Euro against the US Dollar effectively remains unchanged. “After massive rallies that swiftly took it to multi-month highs, the Euro/US Dollar is likely to continue its correction before any further ascent. As it stands, the pair remains in a very tight short-term trading range, and the absence of any real speculative interest on a holiday-shortened trading week suggests we may see similarly lackluster price action through the very short-term."

<snipping chart>

Our outlook for the Euro against the US Dollar effectively remains unchanged. “After massive rallies that swiftly took it to multi-month highs, the Euro/US Dollar is likely to continue its correction before any further ascent. As it stands, the pair remains in a very tight short-term trading range, and the absence of any real speculative interest on a holiday-shortened trading week suggests we may see similarly lackluster price action through the very short-term. Our bias remains to the downside, but a hold of near-term support at 1.3825 suggests that the pair could drift higher or trade sideways until further notice.”

<snipping chart>

Our outlook for the US Dollar/Japanese Yen pair likewise remains unchanged, as the duo have effectively remained flat. “The US Dollar/Japanese Yen may continue to bounce from recent multi-year lows, as the pair has hit the bottom of its multi-year trend channel and quickly reversed. The lows likewise coincide with heavily oversold weekly oscillators, and a return to more normal market conditions would favor further US Dollar recovery. Multi-year spike lows at 87.14 should serve as a base, while next resistance is seen at the top of its short-term downtrend near 93.00. “

...more...

Japan Recession Deepening As Industrial Production Sees Record Drop, Jobless Rate Rises

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Japan_Recession_Deepening_As_Industrial_1230273170635.html

Japanese economic data points to a deepening recession in the world’s second largest economy. Industrial Production dropped by the most on record in November, household spending shrank for the ninth straight month, and the number of available jobs to seeking applicants dropped to the lowest in nearly 5 years.

<snip>

Japanese economic data continued to disappoint, pointing to deepening recession for the world’s second largest economy. The Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing PMI showed sentiment fell to 30.8 in December, the lowest since records began in 2004. The result echoes similar record declines in the Tankan Survey and the BSI Large Manufacturing metric as companies weigh up dwindling demand in the face of the global economic slowdown and the sharply higher Japanese Yen. Expectations of a leaner period ahead have moved firms to scale back production and cut capacity: initial estimates point to a record-setting -16.2% decline in Industrial Production in the year to November; meanwhile, the Jobless Rate ticked up to 3.9% while the ratio of available jobs to seeking applications dropped to the lowest in nearly 5 years. Naturally enough, scarce employment has seen consumers pare back spending, with annualized Household Spending shrinking for the 9th consecutive month and Retail Trade printing at the lowest in over a year.

The slower pace of economic activity has brought inflation sharply lower: the Consumer Price Index grew a meager 1% in the year to November, the slowest since April. The pace of price growth has declined a hefty 57% since peaking with commodity prices in July. Easing price pressure gives the Bank of Japan room to maneuver as they attempt to boost lending with aggressive new measures that look beyond lowering the already near-zero benchmark interest rate.

...more...

[UpInArms]

47. 11:30 EST mexed missages

Dow 8,496.67 28.19 (0.33%)
Nasdaq 1,520.87 4.03 (0.26%)
S&P 500 868.39 2.97 (0.34%)
10-Yr Bond 2.171% 0.008

NYSE Volume 644,676,812.5
Nasdaq Volume 197,203,078.125

11:00 am : The major indices fall to session lows. The Nasdaq is posting a slight loss as the Dow and S&P 500 post slight gains.

It has been a very slow news day.DJ30 +37.35 NASDAQ -0.94 SP500 +1.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1168/155 mln/1255 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1576/119 mln/1289

10:30 am : Stocks continue to trade in a tight range. Volume is low as many market participants remain on holiday vacation.

All ten sectors are posting a gain, ranging form 0.1% to 0.9%.DJ30 +47.31 NASDAQ +0.60 SP500 +2.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1303/116 mln/1031 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1692/92 mln/1101

10:05 am : The major indices slip from their best levels, but have largely stuck to a tight trading range in light volume. The Nasdaq is underperforming on a relative basis as it trades near the unchanged mark despite some strength in Apple (AAPL 86.48, +1.44).

After weeks of speculation, Wal-Mart (WMT 55.45, +0.01) said it will start selling certain models of the iPhone, according to Reuters. Wal-Mart plans to sell the 8 gigabyte iPhone 3G for $197 and the 16 gigabyte black or white model for $297 starting Sunday Dec. 28, according to the report.

In commodity trading, January crude is up 2.8% to $36.36 per barrel. Some weakness in industrials and livestock commodities is helping the CRB Index (-0.03%) trade nearly unchanged.DJ30 +54.95 NASDAQ +0.43 SP500 +3.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1253/61 mln/896 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1676/53 mln/989

[natrat]

50. nice $20 gold spike-someone getting squeezed

[ozymandius]

59. time to sweep 'n' shut

Dow 8,515.55 Up 47.07 (0.56%)
Nasdaq 1,530.24 Up 5.34 (0.35%)
S&P 500 872.80 Up 7.38 (0.85%)
10-Yr Bond 2.137% Down 0.042
NYSE Volume 1,944,234,500
Nasdaq Volume 601,095,062.5

4:15 pm : Friday marked an extremely quiet and thinly traded session as many market participants remained on vacation. Stocks stuck to a tight trading range near the unchanged mark, although late-session buying interest help the major indices settle with modest gains.

After sticking to a tight trading range the S&P 500 settled with a 0.5% gain with all sectors in positive territory. Energy (+1.8%) and materials (+1.7%) advanced the most strength to gains in the underlying commodities.

Only 517 mln shares exchanged hands on the NYSE. For comparison, the market has averaged about 1.5 billion shares per day during the past year and Dec. 24, which was a half day, had a volume of 404 million.

Overall it was a slow news day with no earning or economic reports. However, there are a few noteworthy items.

GMAC, the 49% held financing arm of General Motors (GM 3.64, +0.39), had its application to become a banking holding company approved by the Federal Reserve. Shares of GM are up 13.5% as the GMAC news should help keep credit flowing to GM dealers. As a bank holding company, GMAC will have access to TARP funds.

In other news, Reuters reported that sales at U.S. retailers fell as much as 4% during the holiday season, according to data released by SpendingPulse. SpendingPulse, a report on consumer spending in multiple industries based on aggregate sales activity in the MasterCard payments network, showed that the 2008 holiday shopping season was the weakest in decades, according to Reuters. Retailers underperformed with a 0.1% loss this session.

Not all retailers saw sales declines. Amazon.com (AMZN 51.78, +0.34) announced that sales between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24 marked the best holiday season ever for the online-based retailer. AMZN gave up much of its opening advance to settle with only a 0.7% gain.

In commodity trading, February crude oil ($37.88 +2.53) rose ~$1.50 in the final 15 minutes of pit trading after falling off original highs of $37.64 set at 1:20 PM ET. Earlier, crude oil had been trending higher after the United Arab Emirates said it would reduce production to remain in-line with OPEC targets.

In metals trading, on no clear catalyst, gold (+22.3) and silver (+0.345) spiked sharply just before 1:00 PM ET to new session highs, which was not related to the modest move lower in the dollar.DJ30 +47.07 NASDAQ +5.34 SP500 +4.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1652/584 mln/1086 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2284/517 mln/772