STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday March 4

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday March 4, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 1

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 3, 2009

Dow... 6,726.02 -37.27 (-0.55%)
Nasdaq... 1,321.01 -1.84 (-0.14%)
S&P 500... 696.33 -4.49 (-0.64%)
Gold future... 913.60 -26.40 (-2.81%)
30-Year Bond 3.68% +0.03 (+0.74%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.94% +0.02 (+0.65%)

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp

PADDLES! * CLEAR! * FLAT LINE...?
BY FRANK BARBERA, CMT

So what’s a measly $61.70 Billion dollar loss in these days of Trillion dollar bailouts? To the world of the ordinary masses, probably just another headline to be quickly dismissed in the blizzard of financial headlines that seems to be falling like a strong arctic blizzard. Of course, we are only being the slightest bit wry as the world has never seen a company record this kind of loss as was announced on Monday by AIG. The once gilt-edged blue chip Insurer is still the key lynch pin it seems, in holding up the last vestiges of today’s shattered financial system. After all, with a loss that big, it forces one to consider why the government acted so rapidly and with virtually no public discussion for yet another round of life support bail out funds. One can only wonder what would happen to the financial system if the government hadn’t ponied up another $30 billion dollar equity line from the $700 billion dollar TARP. It seems that even with its equity almost zeroed out, AIG is still too large a player, too big a cog in the wheel to be allowed to fail. Of course, the epicenter for all the high anxiety continues to reside in the market for Credit Default Swaps where AIG is the kingfish. One can only presume that were AIG to fail, or to see its vaunted Moody’s Credit Rating actually downgraded to junk, the chain reaction financial holocaust which would be unleashed would probably force a global system-wide heart-attack of the non-revivable variety. Paddles! Clear! Flat Line…

Of course, all of this begs the question, what about Citi, or BofA, or Barclays, or Lloyds, or even HSBC – where on Monday, we see the once proud and irreproachable HSBC, whose lineage includes the vaunted Hong Kong Shanghai Bank Corp (inception March 1865) foundering under the weight of staggering losses.

.....

While HSBC may have been humbled by the global collapse in asset values over the last 18 months, it is a reasonable guesstimate that with the bank still actually profitable, the next recovery cycle should give HSBC a whole new lease on life. Unlike profitable business which can be resuscitated, the US Automakers probably won’t be so lucky. In this case, a flat-line is the likely end result with GM announcing that sales plunged in February by 53% year-over-year and Ford with sales down 48% year-over-year. Toyota, Honda and Nissan all announced sales down approximately 40%. For the big three, even the strongest electric charge is unlikely to produce a ‘pulse’ as years of gross mismanagement, unwieldy cost structures and huge pension liabilities are likely only solved with a pre-packaged bankruptcy and radical hierarchal surgery. In a very fine article showing the history of General Motors by James Quinn on Financial Sense, Quinn makes the case that “as GM goes, so goes the nation,” and indeed at the rate the US Government is going, Uncle Sam may be next in line.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:15 ADP Employment Change Feb
Briefing.com -580K
Consensus -630K
Prior -522K

10:00 ISM Services Feb
Briefing.com 42.0
Consensus 41.0
Prior 42.9

10:30 Crude Inventories 02/27
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 717K

14:00 Fed Beige Book

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Roland99]

31. ADP: Private sector employment down 697,000. Manufacturing - Declined 3yrs straight

26 straight months of declines in Goods-Producing sector.

Futures up over 1%. Markets love bad jobs numbers.

[UpInArms]

35. line items

01. U.S. Jan. ADP services employment down 359,000
8:16 AM ET, Mar 04, 2009

02. U.S. Jan. ADP goods producing jobs down 338,000
8:16 AM ET, Mar 04, 2009

03. U.S. Feb. ADP private-sector employment -697,000
8:15 AM ET, Mar 04, 2009

[Dr.Phool]

37. I was expecting 700,000+.

But, the market celebrates anything short of a disaster. It will probably sink in later, and drop again.

On a second look at their projections, the numbers are much worse than they expected. Now watch.

But, then again it's "always wrong" ADP.

[tclambert]

84. Okay, I confess, I got this prediction wrong.

That's something the psychics (and most Wall Street prognosticators) will never admit. They will ignore the errors and trumpet anything that comes close to right.

I predicted job losses would be lower in February than in January. I was predicating my prediction on two things: 1) That optimism over getting a new President who wasn't a laissez-faire Hooverite would translate to confidence in the world of commerce that things would get better, and 2) (and this was a biggy) February is 3 days shorter than January (that should have counted for 10% right there).

Okay, I will not make such an optimistic prediction for March. It's 3 days longer than February, and though Obama got a stimulus package passed, the good stuff doesn't really go into effect until April. That's when the middle class starts getting a tax break. And that's the part that has a chance of stimulating the economy.

[Roland99]

55. U.S. February ISM services index falls to 41.6%

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-February-ISM-services-index/story.aspx?guid=%7B1DAEA59F%2D6CE6%2D43F4%2DB556%2DEBCD5F854913%7D&dist=hplatest

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. nonmanufacturing sectors contracted at a faster pace in February, according to a Wednesday report from the Institute for Supply Management, as the global slowdown continued to take its toll. The ISM non-manufacturing index fell to 41.6% in February from 42.9% in January. Economists polled by MarketWatch were looking for a February result of 41%. Readings below 50% indicate that more firms are contracting than expanding.

[UpInArms]

82. Petroleum Inventories Report:

04. U.S. distillate inventories gain 1.7 million barrels
10:33 AM ET, Mar 04, 2009

05. U.S .gasoline inventories rise 200,000 barrels last week
10:32 AM ET, Mar 04, 2009

06. U.S. crude inventories fall 700,000 barrels last week: EIA
10:31 AM ET, Mar 04, 2009

[ozymandius]

3. Oil steady above $41 as investors eye inventories

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $43 a barrel Wednesday in Asia as regional stock markets rallied and investors looked to a U.S. crude inventory report later in the day for signs of demand amid the worst recession in decades.

Benchmark crude for April delivery rose $1.44 cents to $43.09 a barrel by late afternoon in Singapore on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices rose $1.50 to settle at $41.65 on Tuesday.

....

Traders also awaited Wednesday's release of crude inventory data by the U.S. Energy Department's Energy Information Administration, with analysts expecting oil stocks to rise by 2.2 million barrels for the week ended Feb. 27, and gasoline stocks to fall by 600,000 barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for April delivery fell 0.27 cent to $1.32 a gallon, while heating oil dropped 0.96 cent to $1.17 a gallon. Natural gas for April delivery was steady at $4.28 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. As recession saps demand, a world awash in oil

NEW YORK – Supertankers that once raced around the world to satisfy an unquenchable thirst for oil are now parked offshore, fully loaded, anchors down, their crews killing time. In the United States, vast storage farms for oil are almost out of room.

As demand for crude has plummeted, the world suddenly finds itself awash in oil that has nowhere to go.

....

Traders have always played a game of store and sell, bringing oil to market when it can fetch the best price. They say this time is different because of how fast the bottom fell out of the oil market.

....

The oil tanks that surround Cushing, Okla., in a sprawling network that holds 10 percent of the nation's oil, have been swelling for months. Exactly how close they are to full is a closely guarded secret, but analysts who cover the industry say Cushing is approaching capacity.

There are other storage tanks in the country with plenty of extra room to take on oil, but Cushing is the delivery point for the oil traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange. So the closer Cushing gets to full, the lower the price of oil goes.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090303/ap_on_bi_ge/awash_in_oil

[Demeter]

13. Still? I Thought The Contango Had Collapsed in Despair of Getting Prices Back Up

I suppose pricing gasoline to sell is out of the question?

[fasttense]

50. Sounds like price fixing to me.

Sooo, why don't they use their heads, lower the price and see if demand doesn't pick up?

[Ghost Dog]

93. Oil gains over 7 percent on U.S. crude stocks drop

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Oil rose over 7 percent on Wednesday after data showed an unexpected drop in U.S. crude stocks and an increase in gasoline demand.

News that No. 2 oil consumer China's manufacturing index climbed for the third straight month also supported prices, dealers said.

U.S. crude oil futures for April delivery rose $3.10 to $44.75 a barrel by 1:31 p.m. EST.

London Brent crude gained $2.34 to $46.04 a barrel.

"Overall the (U.S. oil inventory) numbers are very bullish ... again, gasoline remains the one bright spot in the market that can really pull the complex higher," Chris Jarvis of Caprock Risk Management said.

"Couple that with the composite of economic news out of China overnight and this is really setting the stage for the energy complex ... to move higher if the equities market can maintain themselves," he added.

Weekly U.S. inventory data showed stocks of crude oil in the world's top consumer declined by 700,000 barrels despite expectations for a 1.2-million-barrel build as U.S. refiners ramped up production by 1.7 percentage points to 83.1 percent of capacity.

Demand for gasoline over the past four weeks was up 2.2 percent from a year ago, the Energy Information Administration said.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090304/bs_nm/us_markets_oil;_ylt=ArNSsDexlz8trV5T.0UiSxG573QA

[ozymandius]

5. World stock markets rise amid China stimulus hopes

HONG KONG – Asian stock markets rebounded Wednesday as hopes China would expand measures to revive its economy countered growing signs of economic decay in the U.S. and other major countries. European shares also gained.

....

Chinese shares led the region's advance, with Shanghai's index jumping more than 6 percent on speculation the country's leaders would unveil new initiatives to bolster the world's third-largest economy, its growth now sputtering, at a legislative meeting that opens Thursday. That gave a boost to other Asian markets, including Japan and Hong Kong.

....

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 stock average was up 61.24 points, or 0.9 percent, to 7,290.96, while Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 297.27, or 2.5 percent, to 12,331.15. South Korea's Kospi climbed 3.3 percent to 1,059.26.

In mainland China, Shanghai's index surged 126.68, or 6.1 percent, to 2,198.11. Analysts said reports the government may consider lowering fees collected on stock trading supplied an additional jolt.

Markets in Singapore, Taiwan and New Zealand also gained. Australia's index shed 1.6 percent.

In early trade in Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 was up 2.4 percent, Germany's DAX gained 2.9 percent and France's CAC-40 added 2.3 percent. U.S. futures pointed to a solidly higher open for Wall Street on Wednesday. Dow futures rose 119, or 1.8 percent, to 6,788 and S&P500 futures gained 14.3, or 2.1 percent, to 704.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090304/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[ozymandius]

7. China’s Wen May Announce New Stimulus Measures to Revive Growth

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao may announce new stimulus measures tomorrow, adding to a 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) spending plan as the government tries to revive growth in the world’s third-biggest economy.

Wen will announce “a new stimulus package” in his annual address to the nation’s legislature, former statistics bureau head Li Deshui told reporters in Beijing today. He didn’t say whether spending would increase or give further details.

Stocks surged by the most in four months on speculation increased spending will spur earnings after an export collapse dragged the economy to its weakest growth in seven years, costing the jobs of 20 million migrant workers. The Communist Party’s Politburo pledged last month a “massive” increase in government investment this year and Standard Chartered Bank Plc says the package may be doubled.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aoA4y8kalcbg&refer=home

[antigop]

53. We're saved! We're saved! BUY! BUY!

:sarcasm:

[ozymandius]

6. UBS official to face Senate questioning

WASHINGTON (AP) -- An official of UBS AG on Wednesday will face questions from a Senate panel for the first time since Switzerland's biggest bank formally acknowledged responsibility for helping tens of thousands of American clients hide assets from the U.S. government.

In a cross-border battle, the Internal Revenue Service is trying to pry from UBS the names of as many as 52,000 wealthy Americans who maintain secret accounts with UBS. The bank maintains that turning over the account names would violate Swiss privacy law and jeopardize UBS' license to stay in business.

The Swiss government -- which is providing financial support to UBS as it struggles with massive losses stemming from the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis -- has refused to send a representative to Wednesday's Senate subcommittee hearing, in protest of the IRS lawsuit against the bank.

Cloak-and-dagger tactics said by the U.S. government to have been employed by UBS -- coded language in internal e-mails and memos, foreign shell companies and phony charitable trusts, use of pay phones and foreign area codes and credit cards -- will be on display at the hearing, which starts at 2:30 p.m. EST.

....

Now that UBS has acknowledged "participating in a scheme to defraud the United States government and its agency, the IRS," the bank rightfully should turn over the names of American clients, Levin said.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/UBS-official-to-face-Senate-apf-14535954.html

[dixiegrrrrl]

121. Congress gets no respect anymore....UBS won't attend hearing.

Congress shoulda nailed Rove the first time he rejected a legal subpoena.
Now that precedent has been set....

[ozymandius]

8. Bernanke’s AIG Blast May Mean More Curbs on Risk, Concentration

March 4 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s blast at American International Group Inc. in Senate testimony yesterday suggests regulators plan further curbs on risk and concentration in the financial-services industry.

....

Bernanke’s remarks, echoed in separate testimony by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, mean Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Morgan Stanley can expect new restrictions as policy makers assemble what may become the broadest overhaul to financial rules since the 1930s, said Kevin Fitzsimmons, managing director at Sandler O’Neill & Partners LP in New York.

....

The new regulatory framework may stop short of re- instating the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933, which separated commercial and investment banking and was repealed in 1999 by the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. Still, banks may separate their business lines in order to avoid strong regulatory scrutiny, analysts said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aD8l1OLhFSx0&refer=economy

---

Of course - call it what they wish - those limitations need to be reinstated.

[Demeter]

16. I Refuse to Believe That AIG Is That All-Important

The world will not end if it does.

[Dr.Phool]

38. No, but Goldman Sachs might.

Where else do we get so many fools for the Treasury Dept?

[DemReadingDU]

111. maybe pension funds would end?

maybe school district funds would end?

If these funds were a CDO which was supposed to earn 10%, but now the CDO was worthless, and they were insured with AIG which is now worthless, seems like everyone loses?

:shrug:

[ozymandius]

9. Geithner ducks a big question

Mr. Geithner was on the hot seat again today. He did his best to sell a bad budget. The closing tape speaks for itself.

One of the Congressmen asked a hard question. “Mr. Geithner can we sell the bonds necessary to fund this deficit? Are the Chinese still buying our bonds?”

Mr. Geithner responded with a full three minutes of non-answers to those questions. At the end of three minutes the Congressman repeated his questions.

....

These are questions that should be asked and should be answered. After all, if Treasury is unable to sell about $2T of paper over the next eighteen months at the current historically low rates then whole plan falls apart. This is a cart and horse situation. Mr. Geithner is up front on the horse, believing he is charge. While actually the bond market is in the cart and it has the whip.

Mr. Geithner should be aware by now that the markets have been just vicious when they have had a target in their sights. If in doubt he should consult with Jeff Immelt. Mr. Immelt can describe what it is like when the market turns on you.

http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2009/03/geithner-ducks-big-question.html

edit to add this little bit:

These are questions that should be asked and should be answered. After all, if Treasury is unable to sell about $2T of paper over the next eighteen months at the current historically low rates then whole plan falls apart. This is a cart and horse situation. Mr. Geithner is up front on the horse, believing he is charge. While actually the bond market is in the cart and it has the whip.

[radfringe]

10. Fed launches program to boost consumer credit

Fed launches program to boost consumer credit
Central bank offering $200 billion for car loans, credit cards, education
updated 4:27 p.m. ET, Tues., March. 3, 2009
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/29484896/

WASHINGTON - The government launched a much-awaited program Tuesday to spur lending for autos, education, credit cards and other consumer loans by providing up to $200 billion in financing to investors to buy up the debt.

If the program succeeds, it should help bust through the credit clogs in place since last year and make it easier for Americans to finance large and small purchases at lower rates, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress. That, in turn, would help revive the economy, he said.

Created by the Fed and the Treasury Department, the program has the potential to generate up to $1 trillion of lending for businesses and households, the government said. It will be expanded to include commercial real estate, though that won’t be part of the initial rollout.

----snip-------------------------------------------------------

The program will start off by providing $200 billion in loans to investors with the goal of jump-starting lending to consumers and small businesses. The program, dubbed the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, was first announced late last year and originally was scheduled to start in February.

Participants — companies and investors that pledge eligible collateral to back the loan — must request the new government loans by March 17. The Fed will provide the three-year loans on March 25.

----snip-------------------------------------------------------

Under the program, the Fed will buy securities backed by different types of debt, including credit card, auto, student and small business loans. The credit crunch — the worst since the 1930s — has made it much harder for people to obtain such financing , and those that do can be socked with high rates.

----snip-------------------------------------------------------

Limits on executive compensation that apply to financial institutions receiving capital from the $700 billion rescue program won’t apply to lenders and other participants benefiting from the program. That’s because it wants “to encourage market participants to stimulate credit formation” and use the program, the Fed said.

[Tansy_Gold]

17. Okay, am I stupid or what?

Isn't it over-extended credit that STARTED this mess?

IF SO, WHY IN THE NAME OF FUCKING GOD ARE THEY TRYING TO EXTEND MORE?

(Actually, I know the answer to this question, but I'm asking it rhetorically in hopes that maybe those morons /sic/ will step back and take a look at the chaos they are creating. Fat chance.)



Tansy Gold

[sendero]

19. That's pretty much it...

... these folks are either:

stupid

greedy, trying to save the bankers rather than America

or stalling for time.

I really can't tell which.

[Tansy_Gold]

20. Maybe all three???? n/t

.

[Demeter]

21. Don't Forget Denial--Heaps of It

I had hoped that Obama would put denial out of fashion, but since he's still indulging in it recreationally, the rest of the business world feels it's okay, too.

[antigop]

54. Krugman asked whether they're stupid or they think we're stupid

And he couldn't decide which was worse.

[lovuian]

77. I agree with Krugman do they think we don't know what they

are doing with our money

[tclambert]

86. Both is also a mathematical possiblity.

Thinking we're stupid does not eliminate the possibility that they are stupid. Unless Krugman also believes we are stupid and that thinking we are proves them to be intelligent. Krugman just insulted us!

[tclambert]

23. It's a simple 3 step plan, Tansy.

Step 1) Jump start lending.
Step 2) ???
Step 3) Profit!

[tclambert]

25. Stole that from South Park

It was the underwear gnomes' plan. Except their Step 1 was to steal underwear.

[Dr.Phool]

26. Just what I was thinking.

If only I could get another loan or a credit card.

I'm taking every extra dollar I've got right now, and eliminating debt. I don't want anymore.

[radfringe]

80. companies like STT walk away with the cash

This eye-glazing document (for most) is actually a ripping good read (for policy wonks on Capitol Hill) ...

The TALF's Master Loan and Security Agreement, naming Bank of New York Mellon as the Custodian / Administrator: http://www.ny.frb.org/markets/TALF_MLSA.pdf

So, a company like STT or investment manager like SSgA puts up its toxic ABS as "eligible collateral," gets "a non-recourse loan" from We the People, and then defaults on the non-recourse loan.

We the People stick our dearly-bought toxic assets in a special purpose vehicle, companies like STT walk away with the cash, and We the People get stuck waiting out the ultimate valuation of the ABS we got stuck with.

This thing is brilliant.

1. The credit ratings agencies (Fitch, Moody's, S&P) are used to benchmark the eligibility of the ABS. That's rich, given the ratings agencies' testimony before Waxman's committee late in the last Congress.

2. The auditors get to self-certify their work. That's rich, and E&Y's share of book-cooking at STT is likely going to become a front and center issue early in this new Congress.

3. The Borrowers have a unilateral right to surrender the collateral, in full payment of the obligation to We the People, at any time. Talk about moral hazard.

The first round of borrowers have to have their applications in by March 17th: http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20090303a.htm

Given the Government's decision to choose Bank of New York Mellon as the Custodian and Administrator, we know at least one large custody bank is expected to survive.

- Dave (aka cga)
http://www.progressivesplayground.com/dc/dcboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=126&topic_id=43&mesg_id=43&page=

[ozymandius]

11. On the Need to Leash and Collar Effectively Nationalized Banks

From Naked Capitalism

One of the things I find truly remarkable is the degree to which Americans (or at least commentary in pretty much all American media) have bought into certain ideological constructs as if they were gospel truth.

Now in fact, most of us operate from ideologies of various sorts. For instance, reasonable people can differ on the tradeoff between individual liberty versus greater social good, on efficiency versus fairness. But casting them as some sort of objective truth dulls thinking and impedes coming up with solutions.

It is also important to recognize how far the country has moved to the right in the last generation plus (when I was a kid, I considered myself to be pretty indifferent to politics, and middle of the road on most issues save civil liberties, where I was left leaning. My views have not changed, but the rest of the country has). Joe Klein (via Brad DeLong) is more pointed:

We are at the end of a 30-year period of radical conservatism, a period so right-wing that many of those now considered "liberals"--like, say, Barack Obama--would be seen as moderate pantywaists in the great sweep of modern political history. The past 30 years have... such a profound destruction of the basic functions of government that a major rectification is called for now--in rebalancing the system of taxation toward progressivity, in rebuilding the infrastructure of the country, not just physically, but also socially and intellectually.

Again, reasonable people can differ on how much of a reversal is needed, but the sorry record of the Bush push even further right (and his big business corpocracy is a form of conservatism, even if it betrayed small government Republicans) means a retreat is in the cards.

more...

[Demeter]

12. Good Morning, Ozy! EXCELLENT Cartoon!

Need to put a gold bug at that table, and then it will be complete.

Got a sick kid at home, and it's all of 10F outside, double yesterday's temp!

If this keeps up, I may move to Florida. And I HATE Florida!

[Tansy_Gold]

14. A gold bug and a whole bunch of SMWers!

And each of them can be holding a little rubber stamp. . . . .


Hey, Demeter, it's gonna be absolutely stunning in Arizona today, or at least my part of it. Oh, wait, I haven't checked the forecast. . . . . . Never mind. It's ALWAYS stunning in Arizona! :evilgrin:


Today is my daughter's 33rd birthday. She's in New Jersey, by choice. They had a foot of snow.




Tansy Gold, laughing

[Demeter]

15. Don't Misunderstand. I Love Winter--In Its Appropriate Place and time

and in the temperature range expected for the latitude. But we have been having a winter more suited for Helsinki than for Michigan. In fact, I think I was warmer in Helsinki for most of the winter I Spent there. And It's STILL not over! It's not even normal, yet.

By the way, Congrats, Mom!

[Dr.Phool]

30. That snow looks real pretty on TV. As long as it stays there.

[Demeter]

36. If you are getting snow on your tv,it's time for a new tv, or the cable is out.

[tclambert]

32. What are you talkin' about, Demeter? The weather's great!

I'm just over in Wixom. I took a long walk yesterday. It was sunny and dry with no wind. Hardly noticed the cold. And it's supposed to get up into the 50s by Friday. And we had 50s for a short stretch back in February. Some of the ice shanties on Walled Lake sank through the ice. In February! How many years does that happen?

My friend Dan works at UM Hospital, lives a little north of Plymouth Road, and walks to work every day. He says, "There's no such thing as bad weather, only bad clothes." Says it's a Russian proverb.

[Demeter]

34. Yes, Well, I'm Tired of Dressing Like a GOLUMBEK

and yesterday was the first day all winter without 50 mph gusts. I throw papers for a living, so I know.

[Dr.Phool]

29. It's not all that bad here. Especially on the gulf coast.

Other than we have probably the stupidest politicians and electorate this side of Oklahoma.

71 degrees today. Near 80 the rest of the week.

[Pale Blue Dot]

18. So I'm holding my first Economic Crisis Team meeting at my school today.

So far, the response has been underwhelming: although several teachers approached me to say they were interested, I only have confirmation from one that he will actually attend. In a way, that's not surprising - teachers are extremely busy people who already have a lot on their plates. However, I wonder what kind of factor perception plays. While I've only had one person laugh in my face about the idea (yes, that happened), I believe that people still don't see how bad the situation is and is going to be. This in spite of the fact that we are hearing new horrible stories from students everyday, and the fact that many of us are worried about losing our own jobs at the end of the school year.

This is a big part of my frustration here on DU and in the real world: I don't think we will begin to take the steps necessary to work together locally until we are so far down the rabbit hole that it may be too late. Sometimes I feel that the cheerleaders here on DU, while certainly not bad people, are leading people into a fantasy land that will ultimately do us all much more harm then good. And don't even get me started on Obama's statement yesterday that now is the time to buy stocks :grr:.

In real life I'm not as humorless as I appear on DU - I am actually, if I do say so myself, kind of a charming guy. In order to recruit people to this Team I've been trying to strike a balance between my charm and my alarmism. So far I don't think I've found the right balance. I am confident that everyone at my school knows that I care deeply about our students, staff and parents. So far, however, that knowledge hasn't seemed to convince everyone of the essential truth in what I'm saying.

I'll let you all know how the meeting goes and what we come up with. I'm not ready to give up yet.

Thanks for letting me vent.

[Demeter]

22. You Need to Market Appropriately

What do these people want, and how does your proposal get it for them?

You have to provide a reason beyond "The sky is falling!" In fact, don't even talk about the weather until somebody else brings it up.

[Tansy_Gold]

24. Give it a different name.

Economic Solutions Study Group or something s l i g h t l y upbeat. Somewhere between THE SKY IS FALLING and "Step right up here, folks, an' git yore free sample pieces o' freshly fallen sky!"

[bread_and_roses]

40. Organizers math

Roughly, you have to talk directly to five people to get one yes. Then factor in a 50% attrition rate (wanted to come, something came up, said yes out of guilt, said yes but never had any intention of following through). So...one hundred contacts = ten people. And that's from a good pool - people who recognize their own stake in the issue, or a personal connection to you, or best of all already active. Quite often you can cut that in half again and be doing well to get five people from one hundred contacts. So don't despair.

[Hugin]

49. "now is the time to buy stocks"

Nah! I'd rather hit the casino. At least the odds are posted there!

For every Dollar I spend, eventually after an indeterminate time, I'll get $0.80 back. The market is only paying
$0.05. (If you're lucky.)

Oh, and if I had some money to invest... Right now I'm investing in Lunch.

[MattSh]

52. Hey, someday some of this stuff HAS to be worth something...

http://www.juliensauctions.com/auctions/2009/michael-jackson/catalog-list.html

:) :) :) :) :) :) :)

[Dr.Phool]

64. Unfortunately for us, Americans are the most poorly informed species on the planet.

Look at their sources on information. Then look at the world.

The corporate media doesn't mention a word about Iceland, Ireland, Europe. If you read any of the foreign press, you can see a storm brewing out there. Here, we've got another ho-hum recession that will be over in another 6 months.

We're in completely uncharted waters here. We have no manufacturing base to speak of. The media has become a stenographer pool. No real information, just report verbatim what politicians and CEO's tell them.

Most people just don't take the time to dig for information. And when someone credible comes along, CNBC, and Faux treat them like they're crazy people, even though they've been near 100% accurate over the last couple of years.

[Demeter]

71. You Said It. Even on DU

The ignorance is appalling. I stick to this thread because this is where the Not-Stupids congregate, and the moronic get no purchase. I don't think DU used to be this bad before...previous years...

and I never go into the Lounge or other such places.

[Dr.Phool]

73. You got that right.

I rarely venture off of this thread any more. Just LBN and some of madfloridians stuff.

[Tansy_Gold]

76. Makes three of us

SMW, WEE, and a few other news threads, but not much else

There's some good stuff posted in other threads, but the people posting it.. . . . :scared: I sometimes think I should invite them to SMW, but then I stop myself.....


By the way, I have NEVER been to the lounge. NEVER.

[Hugin]

79. Hey!

I like the Lounge! I have some good friends there.

But, alas, I lost custody in the Settlement.

Also, after serving my Court Ordered time there... Well, I needed a change of scenery... A new name... Plastic surgery...
A new phone number... The Federal Witness Protection Program...

[AnneD]

90. I have ventured down to the Lounge now and again......

but it's is like recreational drug use....best done in moderation, anonymity and not by anyone with in certain age brackets;)

[Pale Blue Dot]

110. Well, I met my wife in the Lounge,

Seriously. I don't go in there much anymore, however.

[DemReadingDU]

115. I've been to the Lounge a couple times

Just checking it out. I like the people and discussions over here much more.

Hang in there with your crisis team, or as someone above said...maybe a different name...Economic Solutions(?) Many people have other priorities, but there will be a few who are interested. Then they will get a few more. It will build.
:)

[tclambert]

89. Eisenhower was appalled when told almost half of Americans are below average.

Where else but here can you tell math jokes?

[AnneD]

94. Try telling a science joke.....

Sci-Fi conventions only any more. I have ended up in fairly small circles. I morn the death of witty conversation. Saw Adam's Rib with Hubby before he left for India. Both of us were laughing at different parts-and togather in many others. What happened to snappy dialogue?
Volumn has replaced fact and information. Sigh.

[tclambert]

97. Here's a science joke I once saw on the wall of a dorm room:

Heisenberg may have slept here.

[AnneD]

126. LOL LOL LOL........

My very fav......

To think is to do Plato

To think is to be Descarte

Do be do be do Sinatra

[Demeter]

112. Car Chases and Explosions

[Tansy_Gold]

102. There are only 10 kinds of people in the world --

Those who understand binary and those who don't.

[AnneD]

127. don't get me started on the musician jokes either....

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

[UpInArms]

27. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 89.172 Change -0.021 (-0.03%)

China Stimulus Talk Bolsters Investor Sentiment

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_forecasts/China_Stimulus_Talk_Bolsters_Investor_1236169024596.html

The Euro finally broke down through 1.2515 to fresh yearly lows while more Dollar/Yen buying was seen overnight, with massive speculative and macro account demand as the pair approaches key psychological barriers by 100.00. While ever weakening Japanese fundamentals have been attributed to the gains, even in the face of a continued slide in global equities, today’s rebound in stock markets around the world, aided by talk of a major China stimulus package, could also be helping to prop. The highest yielding (developed economies) Kiwi has been the outperformer on the day, with the single currency benefiting from the resurgence in risk appetite and China stimulus talk, along with upbeat comments from RBNZ Governor Bollard who showed a proactive approach by urging local banks to not be “ultra-conservative” in their lending. Bollard also assured that the RBNZ would introduce more policies to ensure adequate liquidity at the banks. This in conjunction with the weaker overnight GDP data in Australia, helped to generate fresh cross related Kiwi interest with Aud/Kiwi falling back from its near multi-year highs just shy of 1.3000. Elsewhere, Sterling was also an outperformer with the UK currency benefiting from the better than expected overnight consumer confidence and more impressive PMI data. This helped to put the Eur/Gbp cross rate back under pressure with the market easily breaking down below 0.8900. The Bank of England has kicked off its two-day MPC meeting this morning which is expected to culminate in a 50bp cut to 0.50% on Thursday. Looking ahead to the North American calendar, key event risk comes in the form of Treasury Secretary Geithner’s testimony to the Senate Panel on the federal budget at 15:00GMT.

...more...

US Dollar, Japanese Yen Consolidate Gains But Ultimately End Tuesday Lower

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar__Japanese_Yen_Consolidate_1236117343812.html

The US dollar and Japanese yen ended the day lower against most of the majors, but for what it’s worth, most of the major currency pairs have simply consolidated gains or losses from Monday. In economic news, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that US pending home sales fell more than expected at a rate of 7.7 percent, but as one of the most lagging indicators of conditions in the housing sector, there wasn’t much in the way of reaction to this release. Instead, risk trends remained the primary driver of price action for the US dollar and Japanese yen. Ultimately, investor confidence remained on edge after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said during testimony on the US economy and budget that the US may need to expand the $700 billion bank-rescue fund as they have “clearly” not stabilized the banking system. Bernanke went on to say that rescuing AIG made him “more angry” than any other bailout, but that the Federal Reserve’s goal is to make the company viable enough to pay back issued rescue funds.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, conditions in US non-manufacturing sector - which accounts for approximately 70 percent of total economic activity in the country and includes retail, services, and finance - are anticipated to have worsened in February as the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) index is estimated to fall to 41.0 from 42.9, which is just above the record low of 37.4 reached in November. Indeed, consumer confidence remains exceptionally weak, as the Conference Board’s measure fell to a record low of 25.0 during the same month. We already know that the US economy fell into recession in December 2007, but this data will help to gauge how long the recession will drag on for. Since risk trends have proven to be the greater driver of price action in the forex markets, a weaker than expected result could trigger flight-to-quality and thus, gains for the US dollar. Meanwhile, a surprisingly strong result could boost equities and weigh on safe-haven assets.

...more...

[UpInArms]

28. U.S. planned layoffs in February fall from 7-year peak

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090304/bs_nm/us_usa_economy_jobs_challenger

NEW YORK (Reuters) – Planned layoffs at U.S. firms fell 23 percent in February from January's seven-year peak, but remained well above long term averages as the protracted U.S. recession took a heavy toll on employment, a report showed on Wednesday.

Employers announced plans to cut 186,350 jobs in February, led by the auto industry, down from 241,749 in January, amid an economic slump that is on track to be the most protracted since World War Two, outplacement company Challenger, Gray & Christmas said on Wednesday in its monthly report.

"The decline in job cuts last month offers some hope that January was the peak and we will now see layoffs begin to fall or at least stabilize," said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, in a statement.

But he said monthly job cuts may remain above 100,000 in the first half of the year and possibly for the rest of 2009.

Job cuts could continue to be particularly heavy in the automotive, manufacturing and financial sectors, he added.

February layoffs were led by the automotive sector, which announced 61,288 planned cuts, or about one-third of the monthly total. The next biggest sectors were industrial goods industries with 19,462, retail with 18,759, and financial with 13,550.

...more...

[Hugin]

48. Well, um... Maybe it's because they've laid off everybody.

Don't suppose that occurred to whoever writes these sort of things.

[antigop]

56. Kind of reminds me on how to lie with statistics n/t

[tclambert]

91. Lying with statistics? I had a class in that. Could probably teach one now.

They were teaching us to "recognize" misleading statistical tricks, not to "employ" them because that would be "wrong."

"4 out of 5 dentists surveyed agree." How many did you survey? I just said, 5. Where did you find these dentists? In the company break room. They all work for you? 4 of 'em still do.

There was a whole section on lying with charts and graphs. Logarithmic scales, uneven scales, not starting with zero, putting in arbitrary reference lines, throwing out the outliers (defined as any data you don't like), averaging numbers into meaninglessness before putting them on the graph, focusing on a tiny little subset of your data to magnify its apparent importance.

I learned a lot back in my computer support days, especially from capacity planning. I did just a little of that, but I sat with and gossiped with capacity planners a lot. One lady pointed out, "We could put in any numbers we want. It's not like management knows how to check them."

One friend came back disgusted from a presentation he had slaved over for a month. He presented his carefully researched, beautifully graphed results and some VP looked him in the eye and said, "That's not the number we were thinking of."

My friend did NOT say, "If you already fucking decided on a number, why the fuck did you make me waste my fucking time putting a fucking recommendation together, you fucking fuck?" Instead, he calmly asked, "Are there any 2's in it?"

[Demeter]

72. Well, for the Present

When consumer demand declines even more, thanks to these new layoffs, the axes will start swinging again, or more likely the doors will close forever.

[Roland99]

33. On a personal note...

I checked with the automated phone system for the unemployment office.

My first unemployment check (a whopping $745 for 2 weeks) was mailed out today.


Still interviewing and applying for jobs (spreading my search to several areas of the country now and not just here).

[Demeter]

39. All my fingers crossed for you

I won't offer you my luck--nobody deserves that kind of punishment--with the exception of anyone connected to the BFEE by blood or money.

[Roland99]

42. Well, as that old saying goes...

If it weren't for bad luck, I'd have no luck at all...


:-)

[Demeter]

45. Which Would Be an Improvement, I Assure You!

[AnneD]

51. Morning Marketeers....

:donut: and lurkers. The economy is causing some weird ripples. The mother of my diabetic student told me yesterday that she had run through all her unemployment benefits etc and was moving back in with her husband. THAT has all the makings of a sitcom. He is an architect and she is an IT person. I hope they can work it out. First one of these I heard about here.

I am at the time I normally re balance my portfolio. I have one (403b)in an indexed fund and one with 30% with interest 15 foreign, 5% large cap 5% small cap and cash. I have a Roth that is classed as mod aggressive and that is the one I know I'll change. My daughter has a long time horizon so I did have her in a very aggressive fund (she doesn't know about this one). I may be altering that one. Decisions decisions. I would appreciate any feedback or nuggets of wisdom from the crowd here. I love to weigh the pros and cons-helps me make a better decision. We still have some precious metal stashed away. Been knocking out more debt too, so we are doing well there. I am thinking of keeping more cash on hand. I contribute just enough to keep the account open.

Good Luck to all you seekers out there.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[JNelson6563]

44. good luck Roland! Mornin' Marketeers!

Keep going ROland, youzll find work.

I am still in NYC due to a fab job I recently got. check it out www.mrchocolate.com

more later!

Julie

[Roland99]

46. Yummy job! I've seen lots of openings for my skillset in CT/NY/NJ

Have a buddy in CT I could stay with for a few weeks until I got a place of my own. But, ideally, I'm headed south. Way south. Like Orlando. :-)

I'm tired of 5 months of cold and gray.


That chocolate looks good, though. I've always been partial to Neuhaus: http://www.neuhaus.be/150/EN/150Y.html

[antigop]

58. Good luck to you, Roland99. n/t

[UpInArms]

41. AIG: ex-CEO Greenberg responsible for CDS portfolio

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/AIG-ex-CEO-Greenberg-responsible/story.aspx?guid=%7B3C767FD1%2DD5E3%2D4B86%2D846E%2DC69FD858A8CE%7D

American International Group Inc. (AIG: 0.43, +0.01, +2.4%) , responding to a lawsuit filed by former Chief Executive Maurice "Hank" Greenberg, said he was "directly responsible" for the creation of financial products that led to the company's near collapse.

The insurance giant called the suit, alleging securities fraud tied to misrepresentations of billion of dollars in losses on credit default swaps, "utterly without merit."

"It strains common sense to accept Greenberg's allegations that he was misled or did not appreciate the risks from the multisector CDS book written by AIG," the company said.

Greenberg, who led the insurance giant for almost 40 years, alleges that misrepresentations by the defendants - including former Chief Executive Martin Sullivan; former Chief Financial Officer Steven Bensinger; the former head of AIG's financial products division, Joseph Cassano; and four directors - led him to acquire stock in AIG at an artificially inflated price as part of his deferred compensation plan.

He told Fox Business on Tuesday that under his leadership, AIG carefully limited its exposure in credit default swaps.

Greenberg also said he's suing AIG because its managers failed to disclose in 2007 that outside auditors had uncovered what he called "material problems" in AIG's accounting. Unaware of the problems, Greenberg says, he exercised options to buy AIG stock.

In response to the suit, filed Friday in federal court in New York, the company said Greenberg led the creation of AIG's financial products unit, its compensation structure and its businesses, including the book of CDSs.

"When he left AIG after saying he could not rule out invoking his Fifth Amendment rights against self-incrimination before a regulatory inquiry," the CDS book was about $40 billion "and he knew that these swaps were not hedged," AIG said.

...a bit more...

[Roland99]

43. Didn't Greenberg push for legislation to PREVENT stockholders from suing over accounting fraud?

Fucking hypocrite.

[Tansy_Gold]

47. Let me understand this

He's suing them because his own fraud and deception allowed him to walk away with blabillions of dollars that he'd have to plead the fifth about?


IS THIS GUY NUCKING FUTZ OR WHAT?


(We need a "never mind" smiley)



Tansy Gold

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

59. Well, he's pissed because it's not as many blabillions as it "should" have been.

:crazy:

[Demeter]

113. How About This One?

:eyes:

[tclambert]

57. That is jaw-dropping, head-shaking, and hysterical at the same time!

AIG's former CEO Maurice "Hank" Greenberg sues AIG for mismanagement because his personal holdings in AIG lost value. And some of that mismanagement may have occurred while he was CEO. And he left the job because he was under investigation by NY Attorney General Elliot Spitzer for accounting fraud. And he was going to plead the Fifth so he didn't have to explain things to a regulatory committee.

But HE is the one SUING! HE is suing THEM! Why? Because he didn't understand what was going on while HE was IN CHARGE! Sweet bleeding Jesus turned into a cracker on Sunday, you cannot make this stuff up. You just can not.

[Tansy_Gold]

61. didn't Marx or Lenin or someone say something about the world

ending in farce?

I think we've reached that point. . . .. .




TG

[Tansy_Gold]

62. I looked it up for you

"History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce."

Attributed to Karl Marx.



Thank you!





You're welcome.




TG


TG

[tclambert]

67. Karl? I woulda thought Groucho.

[Tansy_Gold]

68. There's a difference?

Coulda fooled me!



by the way, I love the jesus on a cracker line. :yourock:

[tclambert]

98. And I'm stealing Nucking Futz. That was good.

[lovuian]

92. and Marx said the workers will revolt

every time

[tclambert]

96. "It is said that the people are revolting." "You said it! They stink on ice!"

I swear I just turned on the computer to check the market and I was gonna go do some filing, but you guys keep waking up old bizarre memories.

[Karenina]

117. NO THEY DON'T! An 80 yr. old ice dancer told me

when I asked about her rink rat longevity replied, "Well when you put meat on ice, it keeps!" (Speaking of old memories, nothing bizarre, made perfect sense to me. ;-) )

[Demeter]

114. Whereas Groucho Would Say the Workers Are Revolting

and smell bad, too!

[antigop]

60. Squawk Box video: Greenberg sues AIG

Interview with Greenberg

http://video.aol.com/video-detail/squawk-box-greenberg-sues-aig/3910024184

[tclambert]

69. Okay, the funniest ending to this story is:

Greenberg might win the suit. He says very specifically they lied to him and other investors in 2007 when they assured everyone they wouldn't lose any money on CDSs. And it sure sounds like they did.

And he's renowned as an investor. If he thinks the smart money is investing in lawsuits, he may be right.

[antigop]

63. Former Countrywide executives cash in on federal housing bailout

http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Former_Countrywide_executives_cash_in_on_0303.html

After overseeing a company at the very center of the still-imploding U.S. mortgage market, a dozen former executives are now poised to make millions from the housing crisis.

Stanford L. Kurland, the former president of Countrywide Financial the bank that has become most synonymous with the bad mortgage lending practices that eventually caused the housing market to burst, setting into motion the current financial crisis and colleagues from the defunct firm now run PennyMac.

The company, headquartered in the same Los Angeles suburb where Countrywide was managed before it was sold to Bank of America last summer, specializes in buying up bad home mortgages that the U.S. government took over from other failed banks, the New York Times reported Tuesday.

PennnyMac has been buying up some of those mortgages for just a fraction of their value, and they keep a portion of whatever money they collect from the mortgage holder.

PennyMac's business has been "off-the-charts good, said John Lawrence, the companys head of loan servicing, the Times reported.

[Demeter]

74. If They Do Their Usual Good Job....

They'll be bankrupt by 2010.

[Tansy_Gold]

78. Checking on the market in Buckeye, AZ, where I used to live

As I have mentioned before here on SMW, I sold my 1988, single owner, 3br 2ba 1+ acre house in Feb 2006 for $340,000.

By early 2007, the buyers had lost it to foreclosure and it was listed at $225,000. They had no cash down and borrowed additional funds for remodeling (some completed, most not) and planned additions that were never made.

Over the next several months it dropped further; the lowest I saw was $126,000.

It has not been lived in since early 2007. It is currently listed (by the realtor who I strongly suspect bought it out of foreclosure) at $196,500.


The house next to it belonged to the real estate agent who sold it for me. After closing escrow on my sale on 3/29/06, she did not have another sale as of the last time I talked to her which was early May of '06. By mid-2007, her house was also up for sale, listed at $368,000. It is currently listed as a foreclosure at $119,000.

I suspect the property I bought has likewise declined in value, but hey, I got an even swap for my place (with a little cash out) and I'm not complaining.


Tansy Gold

[Festivito]

65. Debt: 03/02/2009 10,942,165,294,650.89 (UP 65,020,793,413.37) (Big.)

(Up 74B. Let's stimulate.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,653,326,026,607.72 + 4,288,839,268,043.17
UP 74,163,317,993.12 + DOWN 9,142,524,579.75

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.81, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 305,899,972 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $35,770.4.
A family of three owes $107,311.21. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 13,710,101,312.88.
The average for the last 30 days would be 9,140,067,541.92.
The average for the last 28 days would be 9,792,929,509.20.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 28 reports in 41 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.88B$ per report, 0.62B$/day so far.
There were 103 reports in 153 days of FY2009 averaging 8.91B$ per report, 6.00B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,420 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 12.9 and 24.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/02/2009 10,942,165,294,650.89 BHO (UP 315,288,245,737.81 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 917,440,397,738.40 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/09/2009 -000,572,980,736.98 --- Mon
02/10/2009 +000,388,825,726.33 ------------********
02/11/2009 -000,221,760,520.78 ---
02/12/2009 +043,810,585,841.25 ------------**********
02/13/2009 -000,268,428,512.00 ---
02/17/2009 +028,425,868,676.29 ------------********** Tue
02/18/2009 +000,178,127,394.43 ------------********
02/19/2009 +012,906,622,783.22 ------------**********
02/20/2009 +035,338,367,983.16 ------------**********
02/23/2009 -000,426,861,213.78 --- Mon
02/24/2009 +000,473,801,933.93 ------------********
02/25/2009 +000,413,635,509.27 ------------********
02/26/2009 +048,048,940,708.92 ------------**********
02/27/2009 +000,306,718,307.89 ------------********
03/02/2009 +074,163,317,993.12 ------------********** Mon

242,964,781,874.27 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,277,533,491,391.82 in last 165 days.
That's 1,278B$ in 165 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 126% of that highest year ever only in 165 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 165 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3764830&mesg_id=3764874

[Festivito]

106. Debt: 03/03/2009 10,943,838,929,434.92 (UP 1,673,634,784.03) (Small.)

(Back down again.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 6,653,824,446,048.54 + 4,290,014,483,386.38
UP 498,419,440.82 + UP 1,175,215,343.21

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 306-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.27 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.81, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 14 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of this report, there should be 305,906,143 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html
Currently, each of these American's owe $35,775.15.
A family of three owes $107,325.46. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 13,759,777,403.90.
The average for the last 30 days would be 9,173,184,935.93.
The average for the last 28 days would be 9,828,412,431.36.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 29 reports in 42 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 0.81B$ per report, 0.59B$/day so far.
There were 104 reports in 154 days of FY2009 averaging 8.84B$ per report, 5.97B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,419 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 12.9 and 24.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/03/2009 10,943,838,929,434.92 BHO (UP 316,961,880,521.84 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 919,114,032,522.50 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/10/2009 +000,388,825,726.33 ------------********
02/11/2009 -000,221,760,520.78 ---
02/12/2009 +043,810,585,841.25 ------------**********
02/13/2009 -000,268,428,512.00 ---
02/17/2009 +028,425,868,676.29 ------------********** Tue
02/18/2009 +000,178,127,394.43 ------------********
02/19/2009 +012,906,622,783.22 ------------**********
02/20/2009 +035,338,367,983.16 ------------**********
02/23/2009 -000,426,861,213.78 --- Mon
02/24/2009 +000,473,801,933.93 ------------********
02/25/2009 +000,413,635,509.27 ------------********
02/26/2009 +048,048,940,708.92 ------------**********
02/27/2009 +000,306,718,307.89 ------------********
03/02/2009 +074,163,317,993.12 ------------********** Mon
03/03/2009 +000,498,419,440.82 ------------********

244,036,182,052.07 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,279,207,126,175.85 in last 166 days.
That's 1,279B$ in 166 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 126% of that highest year ever only in 166 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 166 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3766323&mesg_id=3766669

[tclambert]

66. Now here is bee-yootiful chart from that bastion of the liberal media, the Wall Street Journal.

(Maybe this was posted a while ago and I missed it, but it's worth seeing again.)

From WSJ:

Bush On Jobs: The Worst Track Record On Record

President George W. Bush entered office in 2001 just as a recession was starting, and is preparing to leave in the middle of a long one. That’s almost 22 months of recession during his 96 months in office.

His job-creation record won’t look much better. The Bush administration created about three million jobs (net) over its eight years, a fraction of the 23 million jobs created under President Bill Clinton’s administration and only slightly better than President George H.W. Bush did in his four years in office.

Here’s a look at job creation under each president since the Labor Department started keeping payroll records in 1939. . . .

Chart at:

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/01/09/bush-on-jobs-the-worst-track-record-on-record/

You can even re-sort this chart by any column. Jobs added under Clinton minus those added under Bush: 20 million difference. Under Bush, payroll expanded 2.3% while population grew 7.7%. He didn't come close to keeping up. Under Clinton, job growth was 21.1% while the population grew 8.9%.

The comments on this one are interesting, too. The RWers who post over there want to deny that a President's policies have any effect on the job market. (And yet, Republican candidates keep insisting their trickle down economics will create more jobs.) The chart disproves this assertion by itself. The correlation between Democratic Presidents and higher job growth than during Republican administrations is unmistakable. Others try to blame the Democrats who took over Congress during the last 2 years of Bush's reign. (Just ignore those first 6 years. "Look at the monkey. Look at the silly monkey.") And there was one who praised Bush for managing to net 3 million new jobs despite 22 months of recession during his 96 months as President. (See, doing a bad job in one area turns a bad job in another area into a good job.)

[Roland99]

70. HA! Those comments are rich! One says Clinton benefited from Poppy's policies!!

Uhh...Poppy left the US in a recession!

[Demeter]

75. Poppy Benefitted from Clinton's Get-Out-of -jail Pass

Iran/contra ought to get investigated. Think Obama would fund that as a stimulus history project? If we disguised it well enough....

[specimenfred1984]

81. Watched D. Deutch bump heads with CNBC propaganda pukes

again today, it's still on but I couldn't take anymore. The media whore repukes keep repeating the same lies over and over and over, "big gov't is bad", "stop blaming business", "Obama hates the rich", "We can't tax business" etc... Deutch has the look in his eyes a person gets when trying to talk to a repuke, the look of hopelessness from banging his head against a brick wall of denial and delusions.

[UpInArms]

83. Unnamed firms settle charges for $70 million (wtf?)

01. Specialist firms settle improper trading charges for $70 mln
1:29 PM ET, Mar 04, 2009

02. SEC charges 14 specialist firms with improper trading
1:28 PM ET, Mar 04, 2009

can someone tell me who?

[specimenfred1984]

87. 1 connected to Goldman is all I heard on whoreTV

Then they started yelling at each other defending and repeating the same old lies.

[UpInArms]

88. thanks fred!

I'll keep looking for more info also

:hi:

[UpInArms]

85. Righting the Reagan tilt (one writer "gets" it)

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Middle-class-values-Righting-Reagan/story.aspx?guid=%7BDF71408E%2D987A%2D4E7C%2D9960%2DC56C65AD9D80%7D

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Barack Obama has certainly put his money, our money, where his mouth is, introducing a $3.6 trillion budget that follows through on the promises he made in the campaign and which voters decisively bought into last November.

Banner headlines in the New York Times and elsewhere conveyed the message - the Obama administration intends nothing less than a seismic shift in national priorities. High time, as the wreckage of an untrammeled get-rich-quick mentality - in some cases, a get-obscenely-wealthy-quick mentality - sends our economy into a downspin.

Obama will have to fight to get his budget approved in Congress, but its very boldness ensures that whatever makes it through will mark a huge change from the Reagan era.

As the stock market continues to tank, many will see it as a negative verdict on the budget, when in fact it is more likely the continued rejection of the ham-fisted bank bailout plan concocted by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and economic adviser Larry Summers. Breaking that deadlock would probably be the quickest way to putting a bottom on the stock market's fall, but Obama has been slow to recognize that he is getting bad advice in this matter.

...more...

[Ghost Dog]

95. Optimism on China counters gloom in U.S., Europe

LONDON/NEW YORK (Reuters) – A surge in Chinese manufacturing plus hopes for additional stimulus there injected a rare dose of optimism into the global economic picture on Wednesday, even though Europe's services sector fell to new lows and the United States suffered more job losses.

An important measure of Chinese manufacturing improved in February for the third month in a row and factories restocked in anticipation of economic recovery, sparking a surge in oil prices and stock markets, which had been trading at 12-year lows.

A senior Chinese economic planning official said China would increase spending in areas such as infrastructure and manufacturing on top of the 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) stimulus package unveiled in November.

"What is good for China is good for the world," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services in Charlotte, Vermont.

Stock markets around the world rallied on the data, with China's main stock index surging over 6 percent and European shares closing up 3.9 percent. The three main U.S. indexes rose around 2 percent at midday, even as shares of General Electric Co. (GE.N) slid about 9.4 percent on fears about the company's finance arm. GE said it had "acted aggressively" to adapt to the current severe recession and had "no plans to raise additional equity."

The Chinese data also helped buoy oil prices, which supported by weekly data showing an unexpected decline in U.S. crude stockpiles.

Economic data out of Europe and the United States was not so kind.

The Markit Eurozone Purchasing Managers Services Index showed that new business in the euro zone services sector, which accounts for the bulk of the economy, plummeted in February to a record low.

"It's certainly too soon to say that the recession has reached a trough. We are going to see another sharp fall in gross domestic product this quarter," said Ben May at Capital Economics in London.

A report by ADP Employer Services showed U.S. private companies shed nearly 700,000 jobs in February, and the Institute for Supply Management said the U.S. service sector shrank further in February.

"This is a slow U-shape recession," said Kurt Karl, chief U.S. economist at Swiss Re in New York. "We are still sinking. There is no sign of a bottom."

The ADP report suggested that hefty employment declines are on the way in the U.S. government's more comprehensive payrolls data due out on Friday.

HELP FOR HOUSING

The ailing U.S. housing sector -- which touched off the global financial crisis when banks overexposed themselves to bad mortgage debt -- deteriorated further.

Some 8.3 million U.S. mortgage borrowers are under water, meaning they owe more to their lenders than their homes are worth, according to a report by an affiliate of a real estate services company.

The Obama administration on Wednesday launched a $75 billion mortgage modification program aimed at helping people facing imminent financial hardship stay in their homes.

Elsewhere, there were signs the poor are getting poorer.

/... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090304/bs_nm/us_financial;_ylt=AgOZgyyWc4SZO_liWnIAbdm573QA

[Ghost Dog]

99. The CDS monster must be stopped NOW.

This insanity is caused by the CDS feedback loop; here's how it works.

I buy a CDS on GE (a few weeks ago) for a couple hundred basis points ($200,000 per $10 million)

The SELLER of that CDS protects against possibly having to pay by shorting whatever he can against that short credit position. This means he buys PUTs, he shorts the common, he does whatever he needs to in order to lay off that risk. He does this because if GE goes bankrupt their stock would presumably go to zero; therefore, if he has a potential $10 million exposure on the CDS he will short $10 million face value of the common stock, or buy enough PUTs to pay him $10 million if the stock goes to zero.

The PUT writer (assuming he buys PUTs), being a market-maker, will in turn short the common to lay off the risk as well.

This hammers the stock price which then reflects into the pricing models for the CDS, driving them higher.

This cycle repeats; unfortunately credit rating models include market cap as one of their inputs, which causes a credit downgrade (eventually.)

That in turn adds more pressure.

This cycle is repeated until the company is destroyed.

Why is this not a problem with options and straight short sales?

Because with both straight short sales and PUT purchases the short side is required to post margin every night, and if the price goes the wrong way they get an immediate margin call and are required to buy that position back at a loss. That in turn puts pressure UPWARDS on share price and arrests the slide.

As such the people selling short (whether stock or listed options) do not dare short in unlimited amounts, because if they get caught on the wrong side of a squeeze they are dead.

The enforcement of risk against the people betting on a bankruptcy through regulated instruments puts a natural limit on their activity and prevents an unwarranted "death spiral".

But in the CDS world there is no mark-to-market margin supervision, because there is no central counterparty supervising exposure and demanding it.

As a consequence it is only the counterparty and the written document that can demand collateral posting and usually that is either on an infrequent schedule (monthly, quarterly, annually or on an "event") or in some cases not at all provided the writer maintains some specific credit rating criteria themselves!

Without nightly margin supervision on CDS short positions these vehicles have turned into the means to launch monstrous focused attacks on specific companies; the buyer has limited risk and virtually unlimited reward.

This is exactly like me buying fire insurance on your house, and in addition I can name the amount of insurance I want to buy, even exceeding the house's value!

How nervous will you get if I buy $10 million in "fire insurance" against your $100,000 bungalow and then start stacking up gasoline cans in my driveway?

As a direct and proximate cause of this ability to distort the market it becomes possible to create self-fulfilling prophecies almost on demand, with the people doing it profiting handsomely - at the expense of American workers and otherwise-sound companies.

This form of exploitation of the market must stop.

/More... http://market-ticker.denninger.net/index.html

[antigop]

103. and if they short the common stock, they can go through SECURITIES LENDING to borrow the stock

And people who have money in mutual funds (including 401(k)'s) that do securities lending are having their money used to bet the opposite way. You hold money in a mutual fund expecting the share prices to rise, but they are using YOUR MONEY to aid short sellers who want share prices to go down.

IT STINKS.

And most people aren't even aware this is going on.

[TalkingDog]

100. Today's theme song (in spite of the up numbers)

Some people call them "Bushvilles", but I like "Shruburbia" better.

Shruburbia My Home
(a faith-based anthem)
by SMW faithful: Talking Dog


Shruburbia, Shruburbia
No mortgage, no rent.
Just pick out a clear space
and set up your tent.

Out in Shruburbia
children at play.
No school, no test
no read, no write.
It's always holiday.

Come to Shruburbia;
leave your cares behind.
No labor, no toil, no stress, no strife.
No work to find.

Some days we feast like kings;
cold stone soup and bread.
Other days, there's always dirt.
Thank God our kid's are fed.

(soaring refrain)
Take me
to Shruburbia;
where I can live free.
Back to
Shruburbia;
lord, please help me.



I hope all are well.
TD

[mikelgb]

101. easy to tell when dow is good... this thread is closer to the bottom

[Dr.Phool]

107. Bottom of what?

It's right where it always is, in LBN.

on edit:

Good?
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

About 15 months of "Good".

[TheWatcher]

109. Yes, The Dow is SO Good.

It's lost about 50% of it's value in 6 Months.

All of that Manipulation and rigging is SO GOOD!

Don't worry though, TARP, TALF, TANG, TOKE (Or whatever the next Cute Abbreviation they come up with for a Bailout), hope, potential, the next Stimulus (or the next, or the next, or the next) or CHINA will SAVE YOU!

:rofl:

[specimenfred1984]

104. Ack, turned on CNBC again, they're really upset about socialism but...

have no problem whatsoever with investing in communist China. The perfect psychopath investor mentality, and they wonder why the markets are tanking, lol.

[TheWatcher]

105. See? All you have to do is HOPE and everything will be fine.

Buyers have jumped back into stocks after five days of selling on hopes that government aid will help the world's largest economies halt their slide. Stocks are ending sharply higher Wednesday on word of a possible Chinese economic stimulus package and an Obama administration plan to help struggling homeowners.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Stocks-jump-after-5-days-of-apf-14545979.html

See? All you need is hopes of something happening from China (Doesn't matter if it actually pans out or actually happens, just the mere act of HOPING will do the trick), and another vaguely worded, detail-free plan. (After all, look how effective the OTHER ONES have been!)

I guess Eastern Europe DOES NOT MATTER!

Ireland defaulting on all it's debt DOES NOT MATTER!

Mexico DOES NOT MATTER!

The fact that the Unfunded Liability of the United States is $66 Trillion Dollars DOES NOT MATTER!

The Banking System Being Insolvent DOES NOT MATTER!

The Elephant In The Room, The CDS Swaps, DOES NOT MATTER!

The ADP Numbers? DOES NOT MATTER!

The ISM Number DOES NOT NATTER!

The Employment Numbers Friday? DOES NOT MATTER! (Wall Street gets "aroused" when the proles suffer anyway)

All you need is Hope, and the belief in the "Potential" that some vaguely worded program that the government pulls out of it's ass on a daily basis, each time proclaiming "THIS will solve it!"

And if not, the "hope" that CHINA will solve it will SAVE EVERYTHING!

Notice how they said "Investors" returned to the Market today. "Investors". :rofl:

I'm not sure if anybody noticed it or not, but the Market took a 100 point dive into the close.

Methinks those ::cough:: "Investors" were having second thoughts.

[Dr.Phool]

108. I caught that.

I peeked in about 10 minutes before the close, and thought, hmm, might be a 300pt day.

I came back 20 minutes later and, huh?

[TheWatcher]

122. The Most Telling thing about the Big Party Today was Not ONE Major Bank

Participated in all this "Hope" and "Optimism". BAC was up only slightly.

It will be interesting to see if this holds by Friday.

We have Unemployment Numbers, and since Wall Street loves to Party when they find out how much the proles are suffering, who knows, we could end the week on an up note.

This nonsense will be over by Monday.

The Market only goes up on Psychology and Emotion.

There is no tangible evidence for growth or recovery. And until there is, Smoke and Mirrors is all this is.

[SidneyCarton]

116. I know this is kinda loungey, but I figured y'all could use a laugh,

And if anyone on DU would appriciate this you guys would.

[Tansy_Gold]

118. 'tis a far far better thing you do. . . . .

. . . to make the SMWers chuckle.

:hi:



Tansy Gold, who chuckled

[SidneyCarton]

119. Thanks, lurk here often, lots of good info.

:hi:

[Demeter]

120. D'accord!

[UpInArms]

123. hehehe

[AnneD]

128. That comment was completely uncalled for.....

and we loved it :thumbsup::thumbsup:

[UpInArms]

124. end o' the day stuff

Dow 6,875.84 149.82 (2.23%)
Nasdaq 1,353.74 32.73 (2.48%)
S&P 500 712.87 16.54 (2.38%)
10-Yr Bond 3.011% 0.073

NYSE Volume 8,851,228,000
Nasdaq Volume 2,362,354,000

Stocks snapped a five-session losing streak as participants took advantage of oversold conditions. With stocks down roughly 10% during the five sessions leading up to the open, strong gains overseas provided an excuse for buyers to enter the fold and short-sellers to cover their positions.

Foreign indices upended their own losing streak after China announced it will add approximately $586 billion to the fiscal spending plan it announced late last year. Industrial heavyweights were primary beneficiaries.

Gains in the U.S. were put in check, though, as shares of General Electric (GE 6.69, -0.32) dropped almost 20% in early trading to their lowest point in 17 years. Investors had grown fearful that the company may lack the capital to maintain its AAA credit rating, despite lowering its dividend; credit agencies have already warned they are reviewing GE for possible downgrade.

Such a threat forced selling in GE, sending a negative signal to the broader market.

GE attempted to calm concerns by stating it has a strong capital position with ample liquidity. Meanwhile, insiders have been casting a vote of confidence by purchasing the stock. Shares of GE reversed most of their losses to close with a loss of roughly 4.6%.

Given the concerns surrounding GE, which make it trade as if it were a financial company, the stock's ability to rally provided support to the broader market. Stocks were up 4% at their session high, but a late flurry of selling ate into the advance.

Financials began the session with strong gains, climbing to an early gain of 3.5% before tumbling to 3.5% loss. Financials pared the loss when Reuters reported a congressional subcommittee is expected to hold a Mar. 12 hearing on mark- to-market accounting rules. Mark-to-market accounting has been blamed for forcing banks to record billions of dollars in writedowns. In turn, modification of the mark-to-market rules is considered to be one of the key steps that Congress could take to stabilize assets on bank balance sheets.

Diversified banks (-10.2%) were among the weakest performers in the financial sector. U.S. Bancorp (USB 11.01, -1.57) was a primary laggard after it announced it will cut its dividend 88% to $0.05 per share. The company said the move will fortify its capital base and expand its strength.

There was little other corporate news for traders to take in. Discount retailer Big Lots (BIG 17.15, +2.61) posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings and issued upbeat guidance. BJ's Wholesale (BJ 29.42, +1.98) also an upside surprise. Costco (COST 40.81, +0.12) missed the consensus earnings estimate.

Google's (GOOG 319.92, -6.56) CEO stated the company is not immune to downbeat economic conditions. Shares of GOOG were unable to share in the strength of other large-cap tech names. Tech (+2.7%) currently sports the best year-to-date performance of any sector in the S&P 500, though it is down 4.6% since the start of the year.

According to the Fed's Beige Book, the Fed does not expect a significant economic recovery until late 2009 or early 2010.

Meanwhile, the ISM Services Index for February dipped to 41.6% from 42.9%, indicating continued contraction for the services sector. The consensus estimate was pegged at 41.0%.

Investors and economists got a glimpse of what may be lurking in the government's February nonfarm payroll report, which is due at the end of the week. According to the latest ADP Employment Report, 697,000 jobs were lost in February. The consensus estimate called for 630,000 job losses. The ADP report isn't always precise in counting job losses, but has been accurate in forecasting trends.DJ30 +149.82 NASDAQ +32.73 SP500 +16.54 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 790/1866/2.15 bln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 625/2485/1.80 bln

[skoalyman]

125. cnbc asked is the bottom in as stocks were rallying over china's

stimulus announcement