STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday June 23

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday June 23, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials Under Indictment = 0
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 2

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 22, 2009

Dow... 8,339.01 -200.72 (-2.41%)
Nasdaq... 1,766.19 -61.28 (-3.35%)
S&P 500... 893.04 -28.19 (-3.06%)
Gold future... 921.00 -15.20 (-1.62%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.68 -0.10 (-2.54%)
30-Year Bond 4.44 -0.07 (-1.51%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Common Sense Stimulus
Build a productive infrastructure before the currency is destroyed
by Tony Allison

“Why do empires wane? They wane because they get excessively indebted and their growth rate slows, especially when their debts are to foreigners. This was the British experience, and the Spanish experience, and the French experience. And the US is there right now. That’s what tends to kill empire.”

~Niall Ferguson, Harvard historian on CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS

In these tumultuous times, I prefer historians over economists. Economists, with their malfunctioning models and cozy Wall Street relationships, have been abysmal at economic predictions in recent years.

The clock is ticking on the U.S. dollar, and there is no time to waste. If we are as determined to destroy our currency as it appears, let’s at least build a productive infrastructure while we still can. We cannot afford to blow the stimulus money on political patronage and transfer payments. Those are the traditional political remedies to insure re-election. However, this time re-election may just mean taking the blame for a rapidly-declining empire.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

12. It Should ALWAYS Be Govt. Priority To Improve Infrastructure

because that is what the common welfare is. Pity that we've had 30 years of leadership dismantling, neglecting or destroying infrastructure. That is what will bring down this empire: when nothing will work anymore at home, there will be no way to sustain any effort abroad.

[clixtox]

20. Those wily "Neos" were actually laying the groundwork...

for not just the ruination of our nation but the end of our global hegemony.

Not the preferred way to dismantle an evil empire but a surefire success if/when history repeats once again.

We can only hope!

[Demeter]

26. It would have been much more in the "American" style

to willingly relinquish Empire by building up the former possessions into real functioning nationhood and letting them go. But I'm an Idealist, a Dona Quixote.

[clixtox]

30. WOW! You certainly are an idealist which would make you...

unlikely to have an Empire consisting of "possessions" that were stolen or purloined.

The USA became an Empire the traditional way.

Lies, violence, genocide, terror, theft, broken treaties, wars, or recently in more civilized ways through intimidation(economic and military), offers unlikely to be refused, etc. Why else would we have military bases in a hundred countries all around the world?

To make the world "safe for democracy"?

Only children could believe that canard.

I do applaud your idealism, it is an admirable trait. I truly wish that our beloved USA was similarly inclined.

We should be.

We easily could be.

I guess that our corporate masters just do not believe that doing the correct thing "pencils out"!

[Demeter]

33. To a Certain Extent, Both England and France DID Do This

and at one time, it WAS US policy to go that route--white man's burden and all that. I think Vietnam was a real brain-buster, though. All common sense, morality and ethics and DEMOCRACY went out the window with Vietnam.

[Tansy_Gold]

39. They're doing the same thing to us they did to the USSR

Seriously -- if they believe that Raygun conned the Soviets into bankrupting themselves in Afghanistan and the arms race, have they not "conned" (pun intended) us into squandering virtually all our wealth on endless and needless wars?

Will we suddenly collapse into a conglomeration of semi-autonomous "nations," struggling to avoid rule by the oligarchs and kleptocrats? Shaking our aging and increasingly unstable nuclear weapons at a world that fears us but neither loves nor respects us?

:shrug:

Who knows?



Tansy Gold. . .. doesn't

[tclambert]

42. Al Qaeda claims THEY bankrupted the USSR in Afghanistan,

back when they were all called Mujahideen. And they say they plan to do exactly the same thing to America.

[Demeter]

46. How likely is that, though?

USSR was a reluctant conglomeration of homogeneous populations that gladly split apart when the iron fist rusted away.

The US is far too heterogeneous. The only likely division--North vs. South, would be on the impetus of the south, and not to their advantage in the slightest.

Of course, many people pray for California to fall into the ocean, and they aren't all Fundies...

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Report

10:00 Existing Home Sales May
Briefing.com 4.85M
Consensus 4.82M
Prior 4.68M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[tclambert]

43. Highlights from the report:

Highlights

* Existing home sales for May increased 2.4% from April to an annualized rate of 4.77 million units. That was slightly below the consensus estimate of 4.82 million, so the headline print will be considered a disappointment.
* The uptick in May was the third straight monthly increase. Separately, the level of 4.77 million units was ahead of the 3-month average of 4.66 million units, which lends support to the stabilization argument.
* The affordability factor again proved helpful to sales activity as the median home price was down 17% from a year ago to $173,000 while 30-year fixed mortgage rates in April and most of May were below 5.00%.
* Distressed sales accounted for 33% of all purchases, which was down from 45% in April. At the current sales pace, the supply of unsold existing homes stands at 9.6 months versus 10.1 months in April.
* By region, sales were up 3.9% in the Northeast and up 9.0% in the Midwest. They were flat in the South and down -0.9% in the West.

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/exist.htm

______________________________________

Sales up 9% in the Midwest. Yay! Wish they had it broken out by state.

[ozymandius]

3. Oil slides to near $67 on grim World Bank forecast

SINGAPORE – Oil prices slid to near $67 a barrel Tuesday on expectations of weak demand after the World Bank forecast a deeper global recession this year.

Sharp declines in Asian stock markets Tuesday, coming after a drop on Wall Street on Monday, added to selling pressure.

....

A drop from an eight-month intraday high of $73.23 earlier this month accelerated after the World Bank said it expected the global economy to shrink by 2.9 percent this year, much worse than its March prediction for a contraction of 1.7 percent.

The bank also lowered its 2010 growth forecast to 1.7 percent from 2 percent.

....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for July delivery fell 0.58 cent to $1.85 a gallon and heating oil was steady at $1.73. Natural gas for July delivery was steady at $3.94 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

34. Gas $2.55/gallon today at cheapest place.

Let the Second round of Depression begin!

[ozymandius]

4. World stocks fall amid fears of more economic woes

HONG KONG – Asian stock markets tumbled Tuesday, knocked by heavy losses on Wall Street after the World Bank warned of a sharper contraction in the world economy. European markets were lower in early trade.

....

Early in Europe, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.3 percent, Germany's DAX shed 0.1 percent and France's CAC 40 lost 0.5 percent. Stock futures pointed to modest gains Tuesday on Wall Street. Dow futures rose 13 points, or 0.2 percent, to 8,296 and S&P futures gained 0.6, or 0.1 percent, to 889.20.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average lost 276.66, or 2.8 percent, to 9,549.61 while Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 521.19, or 2.9 percent, to 17,538.36.

South Korea's Kospi lost 2.8 percent, Australia's index was off 3.1 percent and Taiwan's benchmark dropped 2.3 percent. Shanghai's main stock measure traded lower by 0.1 percent. India's Sensex lost 1.2 percent.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090623/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets_15

[ozymandius]

5. European stocks claw back ground after big losses

LONDON – European stocks clawed back some ground Tuesday, with Wall Street also expected higher, after a heavy sell-off on Monday, when the World Bank warned that the global economic downturn would be deeper than previously predicted.

In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was up 17.41 points, or 0.4 percent, at 4,251.46 while Germany's DAX rose 35.19 points, or 0.8 percent, to 4,728.49. The CAC-40 in France was 6.87 points, or 0.2 percent, higher at 3,130.12.

On Monday, Europe's main markets slumped by more than 2 percent after the World Bank said it expected the global economy to shrink by 2.9 percent this year, far more than its previous forecast for a 1.7 percent contraction.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090623/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[clixtox]

28. Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange total market...

Down today 4.44%.

An amazing market in an almost totally opaque information situation.

HOSE moves on sentiment it seems, when the occasional hysteria subsides.

It might be the exchange with the largest run-up so far this year, or was, before it came down 20% in the last week or so.

An incredible amount of commercial & high-rise office, high-rise residential and infrastructure construction underway in HCMC. Some privately funded projects on "hiatus", to be optimistic (which is huge over here, a national affliction) because of a current surplus of empty offices and apartments.

[ozymandius]

6. Car Buyers Spurn GM, Ford as Japan Brands Retain Aura

June 22 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. automakers spent much of this decade retooling their lineups to offer cars rivaling Toyota Motor Corp.’s Camry and Honda Motor Co.’s Accord. Now comes the challenge of winning over consumers.

While models such as Ford Motor Co.’s Mercury Sable got top quality marks today from researcher J.D. Power & Associates, U.S. buyers aren’t embracing the cars on which Detroit is staking its future. Imports held 69 percent of the U.S. car market through May, 4 points more than a year earlier.

Ford, General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Group LLC are suffering from their sins of the past, when they lavished development dollars on trucks and sport-utility vehicles and let their sedans languish. Building better cars still hasn’t enabled them to overcome Asian automakers’ aura of superiority.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aE9iwWSyHXR0

[tclambert]

16. From the sales stats I've seen in recent months, Ford has GAINED market share.

In the last couple of months, Ford outsold Toyota in North America. GM and Chrysler have gone into bankruptcy. That and expectations of bankruptcy scared away customers. The Bloomberg article seems to ignore the effects of the "B" word. In a way, the article seems like a backwards way of praising the quality of American-made cars.

[ozymandius]

18. I remember that.

There were reports on Ford's sales released about the time when GM was about to pull the trigger on bankruptcy. Ford had experienced a bump draft in sales, apparently due to the lack of confidence in buying a GM branded vehicle on the eve of Chapter 11.

[tclambert]

44. According to Autoblog.com, Ford AND GM did relatively well in May.

In both April and May, GM sold the most vehicles in North America, with Ford second and Toyota third. In both those months, Chrysler came in a distant fifth, after Honda. In March, Toyota came in second to GM, just ahead of Ford.

The May sales all showed declines from May of '08. The percentages:

Ford: -24.25%
BMW Group: -27.65%
GM: -29.55%
Nissan: -33.10%
Toyota: -40.72%
Honda: -41.46%
Chrysler: -46.88%

Vehicle sales:

GM: 191,875
Ford: 161,531
Toyota: 152,583
Honda: 98,344
Chrysler: 79,010
Nissan: 67,489
BMW Group: 22,993

In February, Toyota sold 10,000 more vehicles than Ford. In March, Toyota sold about 1,300 more. In April, Ford sold 7,800 more. In May, Ford sold 8,300 more. So Ford is doing well . . . relative to Toyota.

GM sold 17,700 more than Toyota in February; 23,500 more in March; 46,400 more in April; and 39,200 in May.

So GM and Ford, at least, are doing pretty well compared to Toyota. Chrysler may be dragging the average down. As far as the report from Bloomberg, I gotta question their assertions. The sales data does not support them. I get the imports only have 45% of the North American market, not the 69% their article claims.

I'm ready to make my ruling. I'm sorry, but Bloomberg is incorrect.

Edit to add link to autoblog.com: http://www.autoblog.com/category/by-the-numbers/

[ozymandius]

7. U.S. may drop UBS tax evasion case: report

ZURICH (Reuters) - The U.S. Justice Department may drop a legal case aimed at forcing Swiss bank UBS AG to reveal the names of 52,000 wealthy American clients suspected of offshore tax evasion, the New York Times reported on Tuesday.

Swiss Finance Minister Hans-Rudolf Merz said at the weekend that U.S. authorities could be willing to strike a deal after Switzerland agreed a new double taxation treaty with the United States last week aimed at fighting tax evasion.

The case could be dropped before July 13, when Judge Alan Gold of the United States District Court in Miami, is expected to hold a short trial on the issue, the New York Times said, citing a United States official briefed on the matter, adding that a deal could still collapse.

.....

The Swiss agreement last week of a new tax treaty with the United States comes ahead of a summit in Berlin on Tuesday where ministers are expected to renew pressure on nations like Switzerland to weaken bank secrecy and increase tax cooperation.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE55M1EZ20090623

[ozymandius]

8. European Manufacturing, Services Contraction Weakens

June 23 (Bloomberg) -- Europe’s manufacturing and service industries contracted at the slowest pace in nine months in June, adding to signs the recession is bottoming out.

A composite index of both industries for the 16 euro nations rose to 44.4, the highest since September, from 44 in May. The index is based on a survey of purchasing managers by Markit Economics and a reading below 50 indicates a contraction. Economists forecast an increase to 44.9, according to the median of 12 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey.

The European economy is showing signs of stabilization after shrinking at the fastest pace in at least 15 years in the first quarter. German and French business confidence rose for a third month in June, reports showed this week. European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said this month the worst of the recession may be past after the ECB cut interest rates to a record low and pledged to buy covered bonds to fight the crisis.

....

Deutsche Bank AG Chief Operating Officer Hermann-Josef Lamberti said on June 18 that the market is still in “the eye of the storm” as the credit crisis affects the real economy. “By no means is the worst over,” said Lamberti, who is also a member of the management board at Germany’s largest bank. “The financial crisis isn’t over.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=a5WIvU7ZRtRg

[ozymandius]

9. Bernanke Set to Defend Record as Reappointment Debate Begins

June 23 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will defend his unprecedented actions to prevent a financial collapse as debate on whether he should be reappointed begins.

Bernanke, whose term expires Jan. 31, faces lawmakers at a hearing this week on steps to aid Bank of America Corp.’s takeover of Merrill Lynch & Co. as Congress increasingly questions the Fed’s interventions. The session comes after a two-day meeting on monetary policy that starts today.

President Barack Obama has said the Fed chief has done an “extraordinary job” without committing to reappoint him. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, in reference to a possible candidacy for Obama economic official Lawrence Summers, told a lawmaker last week it wasn’t “appropriate” to pledge that top advisers weren’t in the running for the job.

....

Still, any Obama decision may be half a year away, and the economy and financial markets could shift again. The jobless rate is still rising, and economists anticipate it will reach a quarter-century high of 10 percent at year-end. The Fed is mandated by Congress to achieve maximum employment as well as stable prices.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aUBTI6OxeEVA

[Demeter]

13. Maybe It's Time to Start the Dump Bernanke Campaign

I'd like to make the little bastard sweat, at least, if we can't get him out of office....

[mbperrin]

32. We have got to clear the entire Goldman gang out if we're to have

any chance at all of not becoming a formal kleptocracy. There's always a lot of de facto type tendencies, but these guys are getting it written into law and regulation.

[Demeter]

10. Good Morning, Ozy!

Pity about that little announcement in red, but I suppose it's better said than not.

Excellent cartoon, again. Do you think just maybe the pressure will yield results? Or will we need another election cycle to weed out the obstructions?

[ozymandius]

15. Good morning, Demeter.

The announcement in red was phased in, first in 1 point type with gray font color, then in 2 point type in red. We have been flattered with many questions about where one should put their money right now. While I do not doubt that many who post here have really great ideas with which to respond to that question - we just can't. That is, unless, you have your credentials from passing the battery of CFP exams and you're okay with giving away your skill.

Your thought about needing another election cycle to weed out the obstructionists has merit. To me, anyway. When I read about Max Baucus spending a fishing weekend with his favorite health industry lobbyists then I feel more elections are necessary. Some people, like Baucus, have been in office so long that the old habits of doing business will not die. With each election cycle, populist notions get a little closer to their goal. Alas, timidity over changing the current system still weighs heavily on our national discourse and agenda. I like to think about it as a form of Stockholm Syndrome. We have developed an affinity for our captors and their formalized methods of abuse.

[DemReadingDU]

31. yes, I noticed the red disclaimer too

Definitely a good point that we have some really great ideas, but they shouldn't be taken as professional advice, although I have learned much more here, than from any professional.
Thanks to all SMW posters!

[Dr.Phool]

40. Investment advice.

Give me your money. I will turn it into pee, through a patented process known as beer.

You never know. Someday pee may be worth more than gold.

Now, excuse me. It's time to go execute some trades. With my money.

[ozymandius]

41. I am looking to invest $5.99 all at once.

So I will consider your offer. But first I must do some research by myself.

[Dr.Phool]

47. Aw shit. I can triple your money!

Next time you come to Tampa, I'll take you out for Happy Hour. It's cheaper, and they have 2 for 1 specials!

I'm a regular Bernie Madoff.

[ozymandius]

27. Kent Conrad and Max Baucus Have No Freedom of Action Because of Kent Conrad and Max Baucus

Matthew Yglesias watches, bemused:

Matthew Yglesias » Senators Have Agency: In today’s column, Paul Krugman lamented the circular arguments you sometimes see presented as a reason for watering-down reform:

And Senator Kent Conrad of North Dakota offers a perfectly circular argument: we can’t have the public option, because if we do, health care reform won’t get the votes of senators like him. “In a 60-vote environment,” he says (implicitly rejecting the idea, embraced by President Obama, of bypassing the filibuster if necessary), “you’ve got to attract some Republicans as well as holding virtually all the Democrats together, and that, I don’t believe, is possible with a pure public option.”

Timothy Noah had a great example of this near the end of a recent column offering a tour of health care systems around the world:

Afterward, Sen. Ken Salazar, D-Colo., who has since become interior secretary, noted that other countries saw a conflict between profits and health. How could the United States possibly persuade insurance companies to give up profits? Reid answered that Switzerland, home to many powerful insurance companies, had done it in 1994 when it adopted the Bismarck model. The insurers fought it tooth and nail, of course, but now they compete energetically to sign up people for basic care on a nonprofit basis because they constitute a customer base for supplemental insurance that they’re allowed to sell on a for-profit basis. This answer didn’t satisfy Baucus. “Perhaps you don’t know how much money have,” he told Reid.

http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/06/kent-conrad-and-max-baucus-have-no-freedom-of-action-because-of-kent-conrad-and-max-baucus.html

[ozymandius]

11. Huge Honkin' Chart of Proposed Changes in Federal Financial Regulatory Structure

Click here for gigantic image.

[Demeter]

14. You Know Why These Cosmetic Changes Won't Work?

Because the intent is to keep "Shadow Banking" alive and in private hands.

If the shadow banking loopholes were closed and the fiddles ended, then the economy would begin to mirror Reality once again.

[UpInArms]

25. Fed says central OTC clearing would curb market risk

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN2251422720090622?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Centralized clearing of over-the-counter derivatives would help to reduce the risk that these instruments pose to the wider financial system, a senior Federal Reserve official said on Monday.

Patricia White, associate director of research and statistics at the Federal Reserve, said in testimony prepared for the Senate that OTC derivatives had amplified shocks during the financial crisis, which resulted in the failure of investment bank Lehman Brothers in September.

"The Board believes that moving toward centralized clearing for most or all standardized OTC products would have significant benefits," she told the Senate Subcommittee on Securities, Insurance and Investment.

Regulators have been working to limit the risks of spillover from problems in one market to the wider system. The spillover made matters much worse during the current financial crisis and the White House has proposed a sweeping overhaul of the U.S. regulatory structure.

These plans, which are being intensely debated by Congress, include making the Fed a systemic regulator for all firms, payments and clearing systems whose failure could endanger the broader financial system.

...more...

I didn't find it on that huge honkin' chart, but ...

[Festivito]

17. Debt: 06/19/2009 11,397,711,606,020.00 (DOWN 1,547,190,746.10) (Little down.)

(Debt down nearly a third of a billion with the FICA part down just over a billion.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,127,310,135,039.52 + 4,270,401,470,980.48
DOWN 316,361,675.40 + DOWN 1,230,829,070.70

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.78, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,688,742 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,163.78.
A family of three owes $111,491.33. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,743,454,307.34.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,478,533,158.72.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,366,322,411.66.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 103 reports in 150 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.32B$ per report, -0.14B$/day so far.
There were 178 reports in 262 days of FY2009 averaging 7.71B$ per report, 5.24B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,311 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.2 and 18.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/19/2009 11,397,711,606,020.00 BHO (UP 770,834,557,106.92 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,372,986,709,107.60 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/01/2009 +078,540,152,146.76 ------------********** Mon
06/02/2009 +000,543,288,286.72 ------------********
06/03/2009 -000,003,266,733.82 -----
06/04/2009 +011,755,789,483.75 ------------**********
06/05/2009 -000,226,149,345.97 ---
06/08/2009 +000,015,040,049.19 ------------******* Mon
06/09/2009 +000,025,670,087.48 ------------*******
06/10/2009 +000,124,232,779.18 ------------********
06/11/2009 +000,484,710,305.16 ------------********
06/12/2009 +000,342,814,514.03 ------------********
06/15/2009 +022,279,783,785.91 ------------********** Mon
06/16/2009 +000,300,303,919.12 ------------********
06/17/2009 -000,017,732,893.60 ----
06/18/2009 -005,859,665,194.24 --
06/19/2009 -000,316,361,675.40 ---

107,988,609,514.27 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,733,079,802,760.93 in last 274 days.
That's 1,733B$ in 274 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 170% of that highest year ever only in 274 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 274 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3933466&mesg_id=3933518

[Festivito]

49. Debt: 06/22/2009 11,400,656,567,952.60 (UP 2,944,961,932.60) (Debt up a little, mostly FICA.)

(Debt up .025B$, that's about ten cents per American using the $4 rule below. FICA fluctuations depend on workers paying into it alongside recipients taking payments from it. No day to day rhyme or reason that I've found. Have fun all. BTW, I don't think Obama is running scared at all. Any health plan is going to be priced by the CBO and all will fail except for a public option, and then it's just a matter of how much money over $3K per American will we throw at health insurance companies to keep them from laying off everyone in them. Keep the calls a coming into the White House.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,127,334,842,792.10 + 4,273,321,725,160.50
UP 24,707,752.58 + UP 2,920,254,180.02

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.78, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 306,710,342 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,170.76.
A family of three owes $111,512.28. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 4,949,032,056.18.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,299,354,704.12.
The average for the last 31 days would be 3,192,923,907.22.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 104 reports in 153 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.34B$ per report, -0.19B$/day so far.
There were 179 reports in 265 days of FY2009 averaging 7.69B$ per report, 5.19B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,308 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.2 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/22/2009 11,400,656,567,952.60 BHO (UP 773,779,519,039.52 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,375,931,671,040.20 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
06/02/2009 +000,543,288,286.72 ------------********
06/03/2009 -000,003,266,733.82 -----
06/04/2009 +011,755,789,483.75 ------------**********
06/05/2009 -000,226,149,345.97 ---
06/08/2009 +000,015,040,049.19 ------------******* Mon
06/09/2009 +000,025,670,087.48 ------------*******
06/10/2009 +000,124,232,779.18 ------------********
06/11/2009 +000,484,710,305.16 ------------********
06/12/2009 +000,342,814,514.03 ------------********
06/15/2009 +022,279,783,785.91 ------------********** Mon
06/16/2009 +000,300,303,919.12 ------------********
06/17/2009 -000,017,732,893.60 ----
06/18/2009 -005,859,665,194.24 --
06/19/2009 -000,316,361,675.40 ---
06/22/2009 +000,024,707,752.58 ------------******* Mon

29,473,165,120.09 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,736,024,764,693.53 in last 277 days.
That's 1,736B$ in 277 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 171% of that highest year ever only in 277 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 277 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=3934937&mesg_id=3934968

[ozymandius]

19. White House Expects 10% Unemployment Soon

found at Calculated Risk:

The AP reports that White House spokesman Robert Gibbs says Obama expects "10 percent unemployment within the next few months".

So the question is: what's he planning to do about it?

[Demeter]

35. Yeah? Try 14.1% in Michigan, 11% in California

and that was LAST month! Stop trying to smooth over a crisis and get the lead out!

[tclambert]

45. Is yesterday the same as soon?

[ozymandius]

51. In a "get it done yesterday" world - it's absolutely synonymous.

10% unemployment, and I'm guessing he means U3 figures, would be a blessing to many areas of the U.S.A.

[UpInArms]

21. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.426 Change -0.357 (-0.46%)

US Dollar Gains on Flight-to-Quality, Nearing Breaking Point Ahead of US Housing Report

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Gains_on_Flight_to_Quality__1245706141436.html

The US dollar was the second-strongest of the majors as risk aversion drove carry trades lower. That said, the greenback generally remains in consolidation mode versus most of the majors. Looking to the DXY index, we see that the greenback is consolidating within a wedge formation with support looming below at a rising trendline near 80.24 connecting the June 3, June 11, and June 19 lows. With resistance looming just above at 80.85/90, a breakout seems imminent.

On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is anticipated to report that existing home sales rose for the second straight month at a rate of 2.6 percent in May to an annual pace of 4.80 million from 4.68 million. While not always a reliable leading indicator, there are encouraging signs that existing home sales could improve in line with expectations, as the Commerce Department reported on June 16 that housing starts jumped for the first time in three months by 17.2 percent in May to an annual rate of 532K from a record low of 454K. Likewise, building permits rose by 4.0 percent during the month to an annual rate of 518K from a record low of 498K.

...more...

Euro Higher On Improving Sentiment and Manufacturing, Will U.S. Housing Data Sink Dollar?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Euro_Higher_On_Improving_Sentiment_1245750145575.html

The Euro quickly erased earlier losses at the beginning of European trading to trade above 1.3940 as equity markets reversed and improving fundamental data helped add to bullish sentiment. Stocks opened down over 2% across the board but a sharp reversal in risk appetite saw several of the major indices turn positive. Improvements in German Gfk consumer confidence to 2.9 from 2.6 and the French business confidence indicator to 75 from 73 showed that optimism continues to build. Adding to the bullish sentiment and signs the economy is stabilizing was a rise in Euro-zone PMI manufacturing to 42.4 from 40.7. However, an unexpected drop in PMI services to 44.5 from 44.8 and French consumer spending by 0.2% raised some red flags as risks remain to growth.

President Trichet stated today that interest rates are currently appropriate and that the central bank is obliged to focus on price stability. He would go on to say that, "We will ensure that inflation expectations remain solidly anchored and impervious to short-term changes in inflation, even in the current context." The remarks fueled expectations that the ECB would be the first to raise rates and although it may not happen until 2010, the higher interest rate expectations could continue to provide Euro support. EUR/USD remains range bound between the 20-Day SMA at 1.4000 and 1.3793-38.2% Fibo. A break of either bound could lead to a longer term trend in either direction. At this time we still favor a bearish bias with the single currency’s correlation to equity markets and the prevailing view that current prices aren’t supported by existing data.

The pound continued to see choppy price action despite bullish comments from BoE chief economist Dale that initial signs were encouraging from quantitative easing efforts. Although, he would state that it is still too early to evaluate the full impact, but “The growth rate of underlying broad money has picked up in recent months,” and “it is likely that yields are lower than they would have been” for gilts. A rise in BBA loans for House purchase to 31K from 29K added to evidence that credit markets are thawing and beginning to normalize which should start to translate into future growth. However, the sterling may have most of the expected improvement priced into the currency which increases its downside risks. If the GBPUSD closes below the 20-Day SMA at 1.6295 today it would be the first time since 4/29 and a strong bearish sign. Support may be found at 1.600 with 1.5798 the next major level, where we find 38.2% Fibo of 1.4400-1.6662 and the 6/8 low.

The dollar has started to give back some of its gains from the past two days despite the dimming outlook for a global recovery. Concerns that current valuations in equities aren’t justified if we see a mild recovery had sunk equity markets. However, we have seen European indexes reverse losses as deep as 4% with the FTSE and DAX turning positive. U.S. existing home sales for May is due for release and the 4.82 million that is expected would be the highest since October, 2008. Although it is far from the ten year average of 5.83 it could be a sign the sector is stabilizing and may add to the renewed risk appetite. The Richmond Fed manufacturing reading is forecasted to be positive for a consecutive month with a reading of 5 which would be the highest since March 2008. It would mark the first time we have seen consecutive positive readings since September 2007 as output has sharply rebounded from the all time low in December of -55. Bullish potential exists for the dollar as uncertainty over the pace of the recovery remains and today’s weakness could be a buying opportunity.

...more...

[ozymandius]

22. Problematic Foreclosure Data (from my local rag)

From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution: Foreclosure numbers don’t add up:

When the most frequently quoted source of foreclosure information released its April statistics, it estimated that 3,746 properties in metro Atlanta’s five core counties had been slapped with foreclosure sale notices.

But a review of local legal advertisements – the only official source of Georgia foreclosure information – suggested a decidedly different number for April, with 7,462 properties slated for auction on the courthouse steps.

What’s the right number? That’s a surprisingly difficult question to answer.

.....

An AJC review of the company’s data in 2007 prompted RealtyTrac to admit serious inaccuracies in Georgia. The company reported a 75 percent increase in foreclosures from June 2007 to July 2007, but later admitted errors and said the filings actually increased by 14 percent.

.....

Some economists believe it’s time for the federal government to produce its own foreclosure statistics. And experts say many are kicking around ways to make that happen.

Again, sourced from Calculated Risk..

[Demeter]

36. Truth and Reconciliation, Anyone? I'd Settle for Truth

and a big knock-down, drag out fight.

[UpInArms]

23. U.S. credit rating a "solid triple-A": Moody's

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE55M1SV20090623?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

TOKYO (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service said on Tuesday that the U.S. government's triple-A credit rating was safe but added that it could be at risk if Washington were unable to bring its public debt back to a downward trajectory.

Financial markets have repeatedly been spooked this year by concern that triple-A rated governments such as the United States and Britain could face credit ratings downgrades as they borrow heavily to spend their way out of recession.

"The U.S. government triple-A is safe," Pierre Cailleteau, team managing director of Moody's Sovereign Risk Group, said at a media briefing on sovereign credit ratings held in Tokyo.

Moody's has a stable outlook on the U.S. rating, which indicates a change is not expected over the next 18 months.

Replying to a question about the sovereign rating of the United States, Cailleteau said the U.S. rating "remains a solid triple-A."

But he added that there were possible risks that could lead to a downgrade.

"That will happen for two reasons. Either our assumptions in terms of debt reversibility prove to be wrong. That is, in fact the U.S. government is unable to bring public debt back to a downward trajectory," he said.

The other reason would be if the United States' ability to raise a large amount of debt at a low cost were to be put at risk, Cailleteau said.

"It could be put at risk if the U.S. dollar was severely challenged as the main international reserve currency," he said.

...more...

[Demeter]

37. They Are Delusional, If Moody's Thinks the Deficit Will Come Down

because nobody is talking tax increases yet...

[UpInArms]

24. U.S. corporate tax audits down 9 percent: IRS report

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE55L57D20090622?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The percentage of corporate tax returns audited by U.S. collectors fell about 9 percent in 2008 and was down nearly 20 percent from about a decade earlier, an inspector general report released on Monday said.

About 15.3 percent of returns filed by corporations with $10 million or more in assets were examined by the Internal Revenue Service last fiscal year, down from about 16.8 percent in 2007, the Inspector General for Tax Administration for the U.S. Treasury Department said in its annual report.

In 1999, about 19 percent of tax returns for the group were examined by tax collectors. The rate of examination ranged between 15 and 19 percent in the intervening years, with the exception of a 20 percent rate in 2005.

The IRS's enforcement staff has been whittled down in recent years, a response to fervent complaints by some U.S. lawmakers critical of what was characterized as aggressive tax collection.

"After several years of improved results, many collection function activities and results declined during FY 2008," the report said.

The enforcement staff shrank 20 percent to 14,900 at the end of 2008, down from 18,700 in 1999, the report said.

President Barack Obama has proposed doubling the agency's enforcement budget for 2010, including hiring about 800 new staffers just to enforce international tax law. That is part of a wider effort by the administration to crack down on what it calls the abusive use of tax loopholes and outright tax evasion.

...more...

[Turbineguy]

29. And Goldman Sachs ready to hand out record bonuses.

It must be helpful to have a fistula to the Treasury.

[Hugin]

38. Haha! Although I always do a K&R of the SMW... Today's 'toon made it a special treat.

Yep, we're still waiting... for something... What was it again? I can hardly remember.

[tclambert]

48. Regarding the 'toon, I have some data!

Back in 2002, a study calculated that lack of medical insurance caused 18,000 deaths annually in the United States. http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/healthcare/2002-05-22-insurance-deaths.htm

More recently, updates to that study say the number of annual deaths has increased to 22,000. http://www.pnhp.org/news/2008/january/make_that_22000_uni.php

Another article (http://www.monthlyreview.org/0903navarro.htm) cites the number 100,000 as the number of annual deaths in America from lack of needed care, not lack of insurance. This much larger number includes a category we seldom consider--people with inadequate health insurance. Many with insurance find their policies won't cover their medications or treatments or needed surgeries completely. Many of those end up with less care than they need, and some die.

Meanwhile, in Canada, one lady had to wait a long time for her elective surgery. Therefore, according to Republican anecdotal reasoning, our system is better.

[Demeter]

50. Boy, the Pumps Were Running All Day

When do they throw in the towel? July 6th?

[Hawkowl]

52. July 1

I think the pumping is going to stop as soon as the quarter ends. That's when all the "professional" money managers will have completed all their window dressing for the quarter. It looks to me as if the markets are churning, with the insiders and market makers getting out, and the suckers being sucked in to be taken for a substantial drop down the roller coaster.

Besides, the Fed has a vested interest in crashing the market right now. They need to maintain the illusion of the dollar, specifically Treasuries, as a safe haven in order to keep the interest rates down. If people feel too confident, they'll pass up the minuscule return on Treasuries and speculate in Wall Street.