STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday August 10

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday August 10, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 4

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 7, 2009

Dow... 9,370.07 +113.81 (+1.21%)
Nasdaq... 2,000.25 +27.09 (+1.37%)
S&P 500... 1,010.48 +13.40 (+1.34%)
Gold future... 959.50 -3.40 (-0.35%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.86 +0.11 (+2.88%)
30-Year Bond 4.60 +0.07 (+1.54%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Hugin]

1. Haha! Send in the Big Dawg!

I'm sad to say the comparison between who he will-be-paying-a-call on is very apt. :o

[ozymandius]

4. Ain't it so?

Ben Sargent is a cartoonist in Texas: the hub of Republican national nutcases. He knows his subject.

[AnneD]

28. Another Texas Treasure.....

like Molly, Jim, and Ann. The mold gets broken after the first run.

Ben is with the Austin American Statesman. Most of Austin is bluer than New York City and more a big a hot bed of liberalism than Boston.

[ozymandius]

2. Market Observation

Generational Earthquakes?
BY BRIAN PRETTI

I’m going to spend this discussion imbibing in a little bit of self indulgence. An exercise in sitting back quietly, looking out the window, a few deep breaths, and trying to think very much in big picture and longer time frame terms. Will these comments help with decision making over the remainder of the week or the month? Not likely. It just so happens that a few weeks back the wonderful folks at the US Treasury reported the May international capital flow data, numbers that come to us with a definitive lag. But this go around it’s not necessarily the monthly numbers that prompt a little looking out the window pondering, but rather the more than pronounced change in multi-decade trend that has been and continues to occur right before our eyes. Is this change trying to communicate a message of generational importance to us? I’m not so sure that is not exactly what is happening. Of course in the non-stop go-go world of sound bites, audio/visual media overload, tweets and texts, it’s sometimes hard to see the forest for the trees, let alone force ourselves to make the time simply to quiet down and look out the window.

Generational earthquakes, what the heck does that mean? To the point, it’s simply not often that we collectively find ourselves in the midst of a ubiquitous and coincident global economic and financial market downturn of the magnitude of present circumstances. In fact, I’d characterize it as a generational, or perhaps multi-generational event. Sure, we’ve seen individual country specific examples of deep and meaningful economic and financial market declines in recent decades. Japan in the 1990’s really to the present is a poster child example. But the swirling maelstrom of the post credit bubble Japanese economic and financial market reconciliation period did not exert massive gravitational pull upon the economies of North America, Europe, greater Asia, South America, etc. Same deal goes for the meaningful Asian currency crisis period of 1997. We can turn the clock back further to individual South American issues, the Russian post cold war economic debacle, etc., but really in none of these instances in the greater post war period was a coincident and deep global economic and financial market contraction realized as a result of individual country events. Coincident global economic contractions as we now experience have been quite the rare beasts.

.....

But in the much bigger picture of global economic evolution, what importantly occurred as a result of these global events is that we witnessed the baton hand off of global economic and ultimately military power to the US from the UK. We all know that the UK had become overextended as an economy, ultimately unable to support and service the financial cost of its global reach. In addition to the US surpassing and supplanting the UK as the dominant global economy, to the victor go the spoils, so to speak. The US dollar emerged as the global reserve currency, leaving a much-weakened British pound and indebted British economy in the wake of rapidly growing US prosperity. The dollar’s ascendancy was to be key to US economic and financial market outcomes for decades to come. If you had suggested the US dollar was to become the global reserve currency in the 1920’s or 1930’s, you would have been meet with immediate and deep laughter. And one last VERY important issue is that as a result of this much bigger picture confluence of events, the US economy attracted global capital investment at an ever more rapid pace as the post war decades unfolded.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Ghost Dog]

33. Yeah. Deep rumblings

down here below...

( Mary Don't You Weep: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QY5lzFgi8j0 )

[ozymandius]

3. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

5. Oil hovers near $71 as investors eye US consumers

Shouldn't the headline read: Oil hovers near $71 as investors speculators eye US consumers victims? - ozy

SINGAPORE – Oil prices hovered near $71 a barrel Monday in Asia as investors looked to signs later this week of the U.S. consumers' health.

Benchmark crude for September delivery was up 1 cent to $70.94 a barrel by late afternoon in Singapore in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Friday, the contract fell $1.01 to settle at $70.93.

Crude prices have fluttered near $71 a barrel and $72 for about a week as investors try to gauge how strong a U.S. economic recovery will be this year. The government said Friday that the unemployment rate fell to 9.4 percent in June, but gasoline demand has been weak this summer.

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for September delivery was steady at $2.01 a gallon and heating oil rose 0.54 cent to $1.92. Natural gas for September delivery gained 5.7 cents to $3.73 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[FarCenter]

24. Alaska and West Texas Intermediate is the cheapest oil in the world

Brent Blend         74.03
Tapis               78.53 
Alaska North Slope  70.63 
Dubai 1M            71.80 
Louisiana Sweet     74.73 
Urals               73.33 
WTI                 70.90
Oman 1M             71.73 
Minas               71.53 
Forties             74.13 
Bonny Light         75.13 

[ozymandius]

6. China to issue all July economic data on Tuesday

BEIJING (Reuters) – China's National Bureau of Statistics will issue all its monthly economic data for July at a news conference on Tuesday.

The bureau had planned to publish figures for consumer and producer prices on Monday; for urban fixed-asset investment on Tuesday; and for industrial output and retail sales on Wednesday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090810/bs_nm/us_china_economy_statistics

[ozymandius]

7. Fed to dampen rate hike talk, halt Treasury buying

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve meets this week with the delicate task of curbing a surge in expectations that it is ready to starting raising interest rates, without snuffing out crucial optimism on the economy.

Policy-makers are also likely to allow a controversial scheme to buy $300 billion of longer-dated Treasuries to end on schedule in September. But they may discuss extending a separate program to support the flow of credit to consumers and business, with an eye on propping up commercial real estate.

The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday, and central bankers are expected to hold the overnight fed funds rate in a range between zero and 0.25 percent. A statement on their decision is due after 2:15 p.m. on Wednesday.

.....

With no change to rates expected, the most likely action next week will be an announcement that the Fed will allow its program to buy up to $300 billion of longer dated U.S. government bonds to expire on schedule in September.

The campaign, which is in addition to Fed purchases of $1.45 trillion of mortgage debt by the end of the year, quickly become a lightning rod for concerns about future inflation and criticism that the central bank was helping to finance a record U.S. budget deficit, also called monetizing the debt.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090810/bs_nm/us_usa_fed

[ozymandius]

9. Fed Focusing on Real-Estate Recession as Bernanke Convenes FOMC

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The collapse in commercial real estate is preventing Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke from declaring the economy and financial markets are healed.

Property values have fallen 35 percent since October 2007, according to Moody’s Investors Service. That’s making it tough for owners to refinance almost $165 billion of mortgages for skyscrapers, shopping malls and hotels this year, pressuring companies such as Maguire Properties Inc., the largest office landlord in downtown Los Angeles, to put buildings up for sale.

The industry is likely to be high on the agenda when Bernanke and his colleagues sit down in Washington tomorrow for the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on monetary policy. Lawmakers including Barney Frank and Carolyn Maloney are pushing the central bank to extend an aid program designed to restore the flow of credit.

.....

Commercial property is “certainly going to be a significant drag” on growth, said Dean Maki, a former Fed researcher who is now chief U.S. economist in New York at Barclays Capital Inc., the investment-banking division of London-based Barclays Plc. “The bigger risk from it would be if it causes unexpected losses to financial firms that lead to another financial crisis.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aTOaAnSiL7YM

[Dr.Phool]

18. "Preventing Bernanke from declaring the markets and economy healed".

And the thought Al Franken was a comedian?

[Demeter]

26. It's Faith Healing

Generous applications of snake oil, that's what does the trick!

[ozymandius]

8. U.K. Stocks Retreat; Lloyds Banking, Rio Tinto Lead the Decline

Aug. 10 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. stocks retreated after four weeks of gains left the FTSE 100 Index valued at the most expensive relative to earnings since at least 2006.

Lloyds Banking Group Plc dropped 4.9 percent after the Times said the bank may raise as much as 25 billion pounds ($42 billion) in a share sale. Rio Tinto Group lost 3 percent after a report on a Chinese government-funded Web site blamed the company for 700 billion yuan ($102 billion) in excess ore prices.

The FTSE 100 Index fell 31.24, or 0.7 percent, to 4,700.32 as of 8:58 a.m. in London. The FTSE All-Share Index slipped 0.6 percent and Ireland’s ISEQ Index was little changed.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601102&sid=apby2EqnEv6U

[ozymandius]

10. How close are Goldman Sachs's connections with the US treasury?

What can we make of 'two dozen' conversations between treasury secretary Henry Paulson and Goldman's Lloyd Blankfein last September during the AIG rescue?

.....

Paulson's office calendar at the treasury, obtained by the New York Times through a Freedom of Information request, reveals that he spoke to Goldman's boss, Lloyd Blankfein, two dozen times during the September week in which the treasury bailed out the troubled insurer AIG. That's "far more frequently" than Paulson talked to any other Wall Street executive.

Two dozen times? That's more than three times a day. More often than I speak to the Guardian's business editor. It's more often than many courting couples communicate. It's almost stalker-like behaviour. On 17 September alone, Paulson and Blankfein apparently spoke five times.

Paulson, as we know, was Goldman Sachs's chief executive for eight years before moving into government and Goldman, as has been widely documented, was the biggest counterparty to the ill-considered financial insurance policies which drove AIG to the brink of collapse. When AIG suffered a downgrade in its credit rating, Goldman began making collateral calls on its insurance contracts which eventually totalled some $13bn (£7.8bn).

Goldman had more at stake than anybody else in seeing that AIG survived. Critics contend, although Goldman hotly rejects this, that Goldman could have crumbled if the insurer had failed to cough up its dues. There is no doubt that the treasury's decision to rescue AIG worked hugely in Goldman's favour.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/andrew-clark-on-america/2009/aug/10/goldman-sachs-aig-treasury

---

I am glad to see that this relationship is attracting first rate attention elsewhere in the world.

[ozymandius]

11. Paulson’s Calls to Goldman Tested Ethics - NYT

Before he became President George W. Bush’s Treasury secretary in 2006, Henry M. Paulson Jr. agreed to hold himself to a higher ethical standard than his predecessors. He not only sold all his holdings in Goldman Sachs, the investment bank he had run, but also specifically said that he would avoid any substantive interaction with Goldman executives for his entire term unless he first obtained an ethics waiver from the government.

But today, seven months after Mr. Paulson left office, questions are still being asked about his part in decisions last fall to prop up the teetering financial system with tens of billions of taxpayer dollars, including aid that directly benefited his former firm. Testifying on Capitol Hill last month, he was grilled about his relationship with Goldman.

.....

Mr. Paulson did not say when he received a (ethics) waiver, but copies of two waivers he received — from the White House counsel’s office and the Treasury Department — show they were issued on the afternoon of Sept. 17, 2008.

That date was in the middle of the most perilous week of the financial crisis and a day after the government agreed to lend $85 billion to the American International Group, which used the money to pay off Goldman and other big banks that were financially threatened by A.I.G.’s potential collapse.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/09/business/09paulson.html?_r=1

[janedum]

19. And thus, we now have a G/S fabricated "bull market" during ...

And thus, we now have a G/S fabricated "bull market" during the worst recession in history.
I HATE these people!

[DemReadingDU]

20. exactly

There is no reason for the market to keep on rallying, and one day, it will stop.

and welcome to the Stock Market Watch thread

:hi:

[ozymandius]

12. Zero 10 Year US Job Creation - observation from The Big Picture

Floyd Norris notes an astounding data point:

“For the first time since the Depression, the American economy has added virtually no jobs in the private sector over a 10-year period. The total number of jobs has grown a bit, but that is only because of government hiring.

The accompanying charts show the job performance from July 1999, when the economy was booming and companies were complaining about how hard it was to find workers, through July of this year, when the economy was mired in the deepest and longest recession since World War II. For the decade, there was a net gain of 121,000 private sector jobs, according to the survey of employers conducted each month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In an economy with 109 million such jobs, that indicated an annual growth rate for the 10 years of 0.01 percent.”

The starting point for the past 10 years is right at the peak of the dot com employment boom. But even taking thay into account, this is an unreal datapoint . . .

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/zero-10-year-us-job-creation/

---

This post features accompanying charts showing that we are far below the waterline in job creation compared to population growth. Also see the breakdown across different industries.

[MARALE]

30. Are Baby Boomer retirments the answer?

Now were are entering the time where baby boomers are starting to retire. As they retire, are we counting on some of their positions being open and taken by younger people? Will the economy be made worse because of the tax revenue lost and they being more frugal or will it be a wash because of the travel and added medical services that will increase because of them? I have often wondered what will be the economical repercussions of baby boomer retirement.

[KoKo]

32. Travel and Medical Services produce jobs for younger people

and older retired people do still pay taxes which support younger people for schools, infrastructure and all the rest.

[snot]

36. who can afford to retire, after the 2008 looting of our savings?

[ozymandius]

13. Crisis and climate force supply chain shift

Manufacturers are abandoning global supply chains for regional ones in a big shift brought about by the financial crisis and climate change concerns, according to executives and analysts.

Companies are increasingly looking closer to home for their components, meaning that for their US or European operations they are more likely to use Mexico and eastern Europe than China, as previously.

.....

Supply chain experts agreed, with Ernst & Young underlining how as much as 70 per cent of a manufacturing company’s carbon footprint can come from transport and other costs in its supply chain.

Dan O’Regan, the accounting firm’s head of supply chains, said: “It is not just the prospect of regulatory changes but also the downturn that is forcing many organisations to consider restructuring their supply chains in their entirety. I think you will find smaller, more regional supply chains.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/65a709ec-850b-11de-9a64-00144feabdc0.html?nclick_check=1

---

We are already seeing this trend take shape with U.S. companies. Proctor and Gamble, for one, are looking regional, rather than national, in terms of manufacturing and distributing their branded items.

[ozymandius]

14. CRE: Large SoCal Office Building Owner to Walk Away (relates to post #9)

from Calculated Risk

From the WSJ: Maguire Properties Warns of Loan Defaults

Maguire Properties Inc., one of the largest office-building owners in Southern California, is planning to hand over control of seven buildings with some $1.06 billion in debt to creditors ...

Maguire ... notified the buildings' mortgage holders Friday that it expected "imminent default" on the loans.

All of these buildings have negative cash flow with rising vacancies and falling rents. This is more losses for the lenders (or CMBS investors for six of these buildings).

more at link...

[FarCenter]

25. Office vacancies nationally hit 15.4%

Quite a few metro areas are over 20%.

From the WSJ article:

"Landlords throughout the country are watching the cash flows of their buildings dwindle. Office vacancies nationally hit 15.4% as of June 30, up one percentage point from a year earlier, as businesses dumped 25 million square feet of space on the market, according to Colliers International."

[ozymandius]

15. The Future Of Flashed Options

With the ban of Flash orders in equity markets now practically a done deal, politicians, and hopefully regulators, will start focusing their attention on Flash derivative products which facilitate not only a two tiered market but potential market abuse by the privileged few who have access to advance looks in assorted securities classes.

While dark pools will ultimately be the critical focal point of tiered market differentiation, it seems the next immediate area of focus will be flash orders in option trades. As before, a major opponent of Flash, NYSE Euronext, provides a few on why flashed options afford club" members the opportunity to sniff out larger market moves. From Traders Magazine:

(Ed Boyle, who runs NYSE Euronext's U.S. option business) argues notes that flashed orders can enable participants receiving the flashes to trade ahead of customers whose orders are flashed, either in the stock market or in options. "When an order is flashed, there's often not a lot of contracts available at the best price," he said. "It's when the market is moving fast that a customer is likely to be disadvantaged ." He added that flash orders proliferated in 2007 when the penny pilot began. Arca has price-time priority and maker-taker pricing for penny-quoted options.

On the other hand, conflcited defenders of option flash include the International Securities Exchange, which is a 32% owner of the Flash trading ECN Direct Edge.

.....

And the oddest defense of option flashing comes from Will Easley, the vice chairman of the Boston Options Exchange.

Easley suggests that concerns about being traded ahead in options as a result of the information being flashed are minimal for a couple of reasons. First, he said, the other firm would have to take out all the volume at the best price in away markets, which could be costly. And second, orders that are flashed are typically for small size. Easley also notes that options prices do not move as quickly as the underlying price and are less sensitive to those movements in some cases. Even in penny names, it's not a 1:1 move, he said.

The second argument is laughable. The take home message however, is the acknowledgement of the optionality to trade on an exchange away from the host flashing exchange with the gleaned information (in other words, it happens all the time). Whether it is costly is debatable - once a firm has set up the relevant infrastructure via collocation and other front-end loaded costs, the marginal expenditures are negligible.

.....

What politicans and regulators need to, and are gradually starting to figure out, is that Flash is not a separate issue - it is analogous to the loose strand in the proverbial sweater: once you start unravelling it, eventually the entire thing collapses. And this is what is notable of Schumer's campaign - the initial focus on Flash will gradually develop into the biggest two-tiered market discovery process, a process which is long overdue.

more at Zero Hedge...

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/future-flashed-options

[DemReadingDU]

22. NPR - SEC Considers Banning Flash Trading

8/10/09 SEC Considers Banning Flash Trading

The Securities and Exchange Commission is examining a stock trading technique that gives certain high-volume traders an advantage over smaller investors. "Flash orders" allow traders to freeze a buy or sell order for as long as half a second. Critics say the technology gives a select group of traders a window into the direction of the market. Advocates say the technology behind "flash" helps traders get better prices.

click to link to the audio portion
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=111721643

[KoKo]

31. Ozy and others....have you noticed the Freeper stuff over at ZH?

I was a big fan of that site, since they've done some good work on exposing Goldman, Flash Trading and such...but since he put up the new site there are Freepers all over the place and then today "Tyler Durden" himself posted this bombshell.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cliff-asness-takes-flagwhitehousecom-and-orwellian-totallitarian-watch-list

A few people on comments tried to push back with real information on Cliff Asness but the commenters were overwhelming in their spew of lies. There's another one over there who has Obama as the "Joker" as his avatar who is a really nasty piece of work and seems to post a lot of RW trash on every thread.

Just thought I'd do an alert in case anyone here is interested or who has been reading the site and has noticed.

[ozymandius]

37. Honestly, I don't know what that is about.

It seems out of character for Zero Hedge as I've come to know it. Tyler Durden has guest posted elsewhere and his rhetorical angle has always sounded measured and intelligent.

[Festivito]

16. Debt: 08/06/2009 11,660,142,454,203.95 (UP 1,064,579,953.64) (Small moves.)

(Debt down half a billion while FICA side goes up a billion and a half.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,329,873,247,080.89 + 4,330,269,207,123.06
DOWN 578,106,269.92 + UP 1,642,686,223.56

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,034,342 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,976.67.
A family of three owes $113,930.02. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 5,815,509,090.86.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,652,407,272.69.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,502,329,618.73.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 137 reports in 198 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.32B$ per report, -0.10B$/day so far.
There were 212 reports in 310 days of FY2009 averaging 7.71B$ per report, 5.28B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,263 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 18.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/06/2009 11,660,142,454,203.95 BHO (UP 1,033,265,405,290.87 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,635,417,557,291.50 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/17/2009 +000,062,427,388.38 ------------*******
07/20/2009 +000,171,809,229.69 ------------******** Mon
07/21/2009 -000,321,987,025.18 ---
07/22/2009 +000,261,059,305.61 ------------********
07/23/2009 +010,040,233,982.08 ------------**********
07/24/2009 -000,124,358,216.07 ---
07/27/2009 +000,077,777,899.40 ------------******* Mon
07/28/2009 +000,420,333,618.55 ------------********
07/29/2009 +000,733,026,310.02 ------------********
07/30/2009 -026,031,384,097.19 -
07/31/2009 +095,534,108,940.65 ------------**********
08/03/2009 -005,083,538,887.00 -- Mon
08/04/2009 -000,056,382,262.77 ----
08/05/2009 +000,017,974,078.47 ------------*******
08/06/2009 -000,578,106,269.92 ---

75,122,993,994.72 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,995,510,650,944.88 in last 322 days.
That's 1,996B$ in 322 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 196% of that highest year ever only in 322 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 322 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4004476&mesg_id=4004541

[ozymandius]

17. Deleveraging the U.S. Economy from Comstock Partners

We are in the process of deleveraging the most leveraged economy in history. Many investors look at this deleveraging as a positive for the United States. We, on the other hand, look at this deleveraging as a major negative that will weigh on the economy for years to come and we could wind up with a lost couple of decades just as Japan experienced over the past 20 years. It is true that Japan didn't act as quickly as we did but our debt ratio presently is much worse than Japan's debt ratios throughout their deleveraging process.

Presently, the stock market is exploding to the upside, which you could say argues against the case we are attempting to make in this special report. However, if you step back and look at the larger picture, you can see that the stock market is still down over 35% from the highs reached in 2007 and also down over 33% from the highs reached in early 2000. In fact, the market now is acting in the same manner as it did in early 2000 at the peak of the dot com bubble and again in 2006 & 2007 at the combined housing and stock market bubble.

This seems to us to be a "mini bubble" of stocks reacting to an abundance of "money printing" by governments all over the world since stocks are rising worldwide. Of course, if the U.S. doesn't recover there will be no worldwide recovery since the rest of the world is still dependent upon the U.S. consumers' appetite for their goods and services (despite the so called growth of domestic consumption in China and India). We, however, don't believe that the U.S. massive stimulus programs and money printing can solve a problem of excess debt generation that resulted from greed and living way beyond our means. If this were the answer Argentina would be one of the most prosperous countries in the world. This excess debt actually resulted from the same money printing and easy money that we are now using to alleviate the pain.

http://www.comstockfunds.com/default.aspx?act=Newsletter.aspx&category=SpecialReport&newsletterid=1473&menugroup=Home&AspxAutoDetectCookieSupport=1

---

You will find a large number of useful PDF reports here.

[Festivito]

35. Debt: 08/07/2009 11,658,212,708,636.47 (DOWN 1,929,745,567.48) (Little.)

(Debt up, FICA debt down. Traded computers. Hope this works.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,330,163,714,788.70 + 4,328,048,993,847.77
UP 290,467,707.81 + DOWN 2,220,213,275.29

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,041,542 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,969.5.
A family of three owes $113,908.49. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 5,598,735,622.77.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,478,988,498.22.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,334,504,998.27.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 138 reports in 199 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging -0.36B$ per report, -0.13B$/day so far.
There were 213 reports in 311 days of FY2009 averaging 7.67B$ per report, 5.25B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,262 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 18.3T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/07/2009 11,658,212,708,636.47 BHO (UP 1,031,335,659,723.39 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,633,487,811,724.00 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/20/2009 +000,171,809,229.69 ------------******** Mon
07/21/2009 -000,321,987,025.18 ---
07/22/2009 +000,261,059,305.61 ------------********
07/23/2009 +010,040,233,982.08 ------------**********
07/24/2009 -000,124,358,216.07 ---
07/27/2009 +000,077,777,899.40 ------------******* Mon
07/28/2009 +000,420,333,618.55 ------------********
07/29/2009 +000,733,026,310.02 ------------********
07/30/2009 -026,031,384,097.19 -
07/31/2009 +095,534,108,940.65 ------------**********
08/03/2009 -005,083,538,887.00 -- Mon
08/04/2009 -000,056,382,262.77 ----
08/05/2009 +000,017,974,078.47 ------------*******
08/06/2009 -000,578,106,269.92 ---
08/07/2009 +000,290,467,707.81 ------------********

75,351,034,314.15 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008.
US borrowed $1,993,580,905,377.40 in last 323 days.
That's 1,994B$ in 323 days.
More than any year ever, including last year, and it's 196% of that highest year ever only in 323 days.
And it is over 100% of ANY dismal Bush, for any dismal Bush-year, ONLY IN 323 DAYS NOT 365.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4008440&mesg_id=4008476

[UpInArms]

21. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 78.888 Change -0.032 (-0.04%)

Euro Choppy Despite Investor Confidence at a 12 month High, Pound Remains Heavy

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/bio1/Pound__Euro_Consolidate_Ahead1249897794610.html

The Euro has remained choppy throughout overnight trading despite an increase in French industrial production and a jump in investor confidence. The Sentix measure of European investor sentiment soared to a twelve month high of -17 from -31.3 while smashing estimates of -25.8. The expectations component rose to +8 from -5.5 signaling that market participants believe that a recovery is imminent. Meanwhile, French industrial production rose by 0.3% in June surpassing forecasts of 0.2% led by a 5.3% gain in automobile output. The improving data supports the ECB’s contention that the growth may return to the region by the end of the year.

Indeed, President Trichet stated last week, following the central bank’s decision to leave rates and their covered bond purchase program unchanged, that “there are increasingly signs that the global recession is bottoming out.” However, there are still doubts that the ECB has done enough to ensure a strong recover and concerns remain that the region will lag the U.S. and other countries in its pace of improvement. Therefore, we could see the single currency lose its correlation to risk appetite as investors chose to put their money in areas with better growth prospects. The 50-Day SMA at 1.4081 is a key level to watch a break below there could lead to extended losses.

The Pound has continued its decline following the BoE’s announcement to add £50 billion to its asset purchase program, which will provide additional liquidity to the markets. The central bank saw the need for the additional measures as credit conditions remain tight for consumers and small businesses. The added supply of sterling to the market over the next three months should lead to depreciation for the currency over the short-term on supply and demand dynamics. A test of support at 1.6589-20-Day SMA appears likely with the 50-Day SMA at 1.6435 presenting a critical level for longer term price direction.

The dollar has held on to its gains from Friday following the much better than expected US employment report which showed the pace of job losses slowing and unemployment easing to 9.4% from 9.5%. Markets took it as a clear sign the recession is ending in the U.S. which increased demand for dollar based risky assets and provided greenback support. There is an empty economic calendar today so it will be interesting to see what equity markets do following their rally to end the week. They are at significant resistance levels and we could see a pull back. The question is whether the dollar will decline on the waning risk appetite or continue with its recent negative correlation. A FOMC rate decision, CPI and retail sales will provide enough event risk on the week to see if the greenback’s relationship with risk has reversed.

...more...

Does the Dollar's NFP Rally Have Staying Power?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/currency/eur_fundamentals/Does_the_Dollar_s_NFP_Rally_1249762476412.html



Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar: Bullish

- Payrolls drop the least in 11 months and the jobless rate ticks lower for the first time since April of 2008
- Person spending contrasts at its fastest pace in four-and-a-half years, jeopardizing spending and a recovery
- The dollar pulls itself back from wide-spread bearish break, but is this a true reversal?

The dollar was on track to plummet to new lows for the year at the start of last week; but what a difference one indicator and a few hours’ worth of speculative-heavy price action can have. Last Monday, made the bearish break that the battered currency had been flirting with for weeks. However, this break was not catalyzed by any specific fundamental driver; nor was it supported by a meaningful trend in risk appetite. Without the necessary fuel to push the dollar to new lows, it would instead stall on the other side of its key technical level for a genuine fundamental driver to reverse the currencies fortunes and potentially completely change its future. On the other hand, this fledgling rally could prove to be just as feeble as the previous plunge should an underlying fundamental driver not step in and take control. Among the reasonable drivers for a true bull trend, either the dollar will have to break its ties to investor sentiment (as a safe haven currency) or risk appetite will have to collapse.

Analyzing the initial surge that put the greenback into such a compromising position for the weekend, it was clear that this rally was defying gravity as capital markets were following the same path. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tested fresh nine-month highs and the 10-year Treasury note marked its worst performance since the early June reversal. As a well-known safe haven or funding currency, the currency typically exhibits a tight, negative correlation to these financial market counterparts. Under normal circumstances, we would expect this natural relationship to return. Taking stock of risk appetite, there are very few scheduled events over the first half of the week that could carry optimism (or turn it for that matter). Later in the week, we will have the first readings on European growth, official policy statements (the BoE Quarterly Monetary Policy Report and RBA Governor’s semi-annual testimony) and the a couple rate decision. These events have the clout to alter expectations for global growth and yields; but if momentum builds through speculation before these fundamentals are absorbed, the market could write it off.

There is another means for the dollar to maintain its bullish projection; but it would be far more difficult to muster. If the world’s reserve currency was able to shake its label as the primary safe haven; it could rise on the merits of its own economic performance. While we have been trending toward this state for some time, it has been very slow. A rapid shift would be difficult to accomplish because of the currency’s place in the world’s financial markets, the prevalence of its Treasuries, the ballooning budget deficit, the fact that it is considered the source of the worst financial crisis since WWII and the very fact that it is used as a benchmark. Nonetheless, data and speculation put this indicator high up on the scale of economic recovery. While the US certainly isn’t enjoying the pace of expansion of its Chinese counterpart; the pace and extent of its recovery are expected to beat the UK, Japan and the Euro Zone (which we will confirm with next week’s GDP numbers). Friday’s non-farm payrolls certainly bolstered this belief after the disappointing details of the 2Q GDP report. Next week’s data will certainly weigh in on this front. A confidence and retail sales report will cover consumer spending which accounts for approximately 70 percent of the economy. The trade report will fill in for global demand and the capital flows it is adds or detracts.

Realistically, the growth aspect of the dollar outlook is very long-term. Perhaps a new, more meaningful focus will actually fall to the Fed. It has been subtle; but over the past few months, there has been a steady pick up in speculation for a hawkish rate regime to return well before Chairman Bernanke has accounted for (he has previously suggested the middle of next year). According to Fed Fund futures, there is a 40 percent probability of a hike by December. The FOMC rate decision and CPI data will bear on the rationality to such musings.

...more...

[UpInArms]

23. U.S. banks to make $38 billion from overdraft fees: report

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE5790YM20090810?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

(Reuters) - Banks in the United States are poised to make $38.5 billion in customer overdraft fees this year, the Financial Times said, citing research by Moebs Services.

A large portion of the revenue is likely to come from the most financially stretched consumers, according to the paper.

It said the research showed that many banks have increased charges on overdrafts and credit cards in order to boost profits.

The median bank overdraft fee rose this year by one dollar to $26, the paper said, citing the Moebs data.

"Banks are returning to a fee-driven model and overdraft fees are the mother lode," Mike Moebs, the company's founder was quoted by the paper as saying.

Overdraft fees accounted for more than 75 percent of service fees charged on customer deposits, the paper cited Moebs as saying.

...more...

[mbperrin]

27. Nice to see a return to old fashioned values. Gouge 'em, gounge 'em!

They're poor, they deserve it! If God didn't want it to happen, he'd stop it.

Right?

[DoBotherMe]

29. K&R n/t

[Irish Girl]

34. k&r

have to keep my favorite thread on DU near the top. :patriot: