STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday August 13

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday August 13, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 4

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 12, 2009

Dow... 9,361.61 +120.16 (+1.30%)
Nasdaq... 1,998.72 +28.99 (+1.47%)
S&P 500... 1,005.81 +11.46 (+1.15%)
Gold future... 952.50 +4.90 (+0.52%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.72 +0.05 (+1.31%)
30-Year Bond 4.54 +0.10 (+2.34%)

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie and Silver

---

Handy Links - Market Data and News:
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Handy Links - Government Issues:
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Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Karenina]

1. Good morning, Ozy!

Thank you for our "daily bread." :loveya:

[ozymandius]

3. Good morning, Karenina.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

You're welcome. Thank you for the kudos.

[saigon68]

9. Nice Cartoon

It sums it up perfectly

[ozymandius]

11. Thanks!

Honestly, toxic assets really should be packed into boxes of Cracker Jacks to reflect their true value.

[Dr.Phool]

14. Take a dirivative to show and tell.

Toxic assets would bring down the value of the Cracker Jacks.

[Tansy_Gold]

28. i was thinking the same thing

My uncle used to have a box full of Cracker Jack "prizes" back in the early 50s. I'll bet they're worth lots more than most TAs these days.



TG

[Coes]

47. cruel cartoon

- what are we going to leave behind for the next generation? Toxic assets??

[ozymandius]

2. Market Observation

Balancing Act
BY CHRIS PUPLAVA

The rally off the March lows has been something to behold with the S&P 500 up more than 45%. The market has climbed a wall of worry as many financial pundits were repeatedly looking for a market top for the bear trend to continue or a significant pullback to at least offer them a chance to reenter the market. However, after the brief correction in June the market vaulted northwards again with the S&P 500 breaching the 1,000 mark for the first time since October of 2008. Many are wondering what has fueled this rally and if it is sustainable. Can the short term supports for the market offset the longer term headwinds facing the economy? The struggle between the two is leading to quite the balancing act between risk and reward, and this balancing act is likely to be with us for the foreseeable future.

Follow the Money

Over the course of the last two years Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke has slashed interest rates virtually to zero to help stimulate the economy. For the most part, the low interest rate environment has not had the intended result of spurring bank lending as bank credit and commercial paper outstanding are contracting at a 1.5% year-over-year (YOY) rate of change.

-chart-

While the low interest rate environment created by the Fed has not led to a significant turnaround in bank credit, what it appears to have done is force households and investors out from their bunkers as they seek higher returns and yields. Two ingredients appear to have led households and investors to put money back in the stock market, which are reduced fears of economic and financial Armageddon and a low interest rate environment. There is simply no way that Boomers can hope to retire on investment portfolios that are invested in short to intermediate-term US Treasuries (UST) given current interest rates, particularly so if their capital base was cut in half in the carnage from the recent bear market.

.....

While the market may be fixated on the here and now, my focus is on what the landscape will be on the horizon. While it may be true that we are in the midst of a valley after a steep decline, what is before us in terms of economic recovery? We know the decline was steep and much longer than the typical recession, but the question I am asking is, how long is the valley? Is the economic valley ahead one characterized by a long flat path before a rising economic expansionary hill, think “L”-shaped recovery, or is the valley brief or gradual as in a “V”-shaped or “U”-shaped recovery respectively?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[rfranklin]

12. If futures are any indication, euphoria is still in effect...

Recession has been declared over.

[ozymandius]

4. Today's Reports

08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jul
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 0.8%

08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jul
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior 0.2%

08:30 Initial Claims 08/08
Briefing.com 540K
Consensus 545K
Prior 550K

08:30 Retail Sales Jul
Briefing.com 0.9%
Consensus 0.7%
Prior 0.6%

08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jul
Briefing.com 0.3%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.3%

10:00 Business Inventories Jun
Briefing.com -0.9%
Consensus -0.9%
Prior -1.0%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

6. Sales to be in focus when Wal-Mart reports results

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – When Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N) reports second-quarter results on Thursday, it will provide a much-awaited glimpse into the state of consumer spending as measured by the billions of dollars that flow through its cash registers every quarter.

Wal-Mart is the biggest force in retailing, accounting for roughly 8 cents of every dollar of retail sales generated in the United States, excluding automobiles. But investors lost a vital source of insight into its sales when Wal-Mart said in May that it would stop reporting monthly sales.

.....

The last sales update investors received from Wal-Mart was in May, when it said its April comparable-store sales rose 5 percent. Analysts were expecting a 2.9 percent rise.

Wal-Mart has forecast comparable-store sales to be flat to up 3 percent for the 13 weeks from May 2 through July 31. Analysts, on average, expect a gain of 1.1 percent, according to Thomson Reuters.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090813/bs_nm/us_walmart

---

Love it or hate it - Wal-Mart is such a huge presence in retail that it acts a bit like the Great Lakes of economic stats. It creates its own weather systems.

[Po_d Mainiac]

19. The numbers are out, sales are down.

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE57C0OG20090813

Obviously more indications of "green shoots" :sarcasm:

[ozymandius]

22. Profit up due to price cuts. Same store sales Y-O-Y fell 1.2%.

Wal-Mart is trying to increase profits through volume sales spurred by lower prices. Operating cost savings also increased their profits.

[rfranklin]

23. But futures are still up, up, up!

Obviously the word is out that the market is going up today...no matter what!

[Dr.Phool]

24. I love the spin. Sales are down. Earnings are up a penny.

Better than expected. How did they do that? Sell cheaper crap for more money? Lay off more employees?

[UpInArms]

25. Initial claims @ 558,000 - July retail sales -0.1% vs. +0.8% expected

U.S. July retail sales -0.1% vs. +0.8% expected
8:30am Today
U.S. July retail sales ex-autos -0.6% vs. +0.1%
8:30am Today

U.S. July auto sales up 2.4%
8:30am Today

U.S. July gasoline sales fall 2.1%
8:30am Today

U.S. retail sales down 8.3% in past year
8:30am Today

US weekly initial jobless claims up 4,000 to 558K
8:30am Today

US 4-week average claims up 8,500 to 565,000
8:30am Today

US continuing jobless claims down 141,000 to 6.2M
8:30am Today

US 4-wk avg continuing claims down 27,750 to 6.26M
8:30am Today

July import prices down 0.7% vs 0.1% dip expected
8:30am Today

U.S. import prices down 19.3% in past year
8:30am Today

[Doctor_J]

35. More than a HALF MILLION new jobless claims

yah, we're really pulling out of that recession, aren't we?

Gawd, I hope I live to see the day when the hoi polloi in the US have had enough

[ozymandius]

5. Oil rises to near $71 as IEA boosts demand outlook

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose to near $71 a barrel Thursday in Asia as the International Energy Agency boosted its global crude demand forecast.

.....

The IEA, based in Paris, said Wednesday it raised its global oil consumption forecast for this year and next. Despite the rosier outlook, the IEA still expects demand this year to fall 2.7 percent as economies struggle to emerge from recession.

......

Investors brushed off evidence that suggested crude demand remains weak in the U.S. The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said crude inventories rose last week by 2.5 million barrels and were up 7.5 million during the last four weeks.

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for September delivery rose 1.17 cents to $2.04 a gallon and heating oil gained 2.58 cents to $1.92. Natural gas for September delivery jumped 4.4 cents to $3.52 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[UpInArms]

20. Oil futures up $1.30 at $71.46 a barrel on Globex

Oil futures up $1.30 at $71.46 a barrel on Globex
7:53am Today

[ozymandius]

26. Goldman Faces Carbon Market Curbs in Senate Proposals (Update1)

Aug. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. would be barred from a planned U.S. carbon- emissions market or face trading restrictions under proposals by Democratic senators crafting climate change legislation.

At least nine members of the majority party say speculation by Wall Street banks may cause excessive price swings in the cap-and-trade system of pollution allowances at the center of President Barack Obama’s plan to curb global warming.

The senators say they may limit participation to polluters needing permits, ban derivatives or impose stricter regulations than exist in today’s energy markets.

.....

Debate over the banks’ role may thwart Obama’s efforts to get the 60 votes needed in the 100-member Senate to approve climate legislation. There are 60 Democrats in the Senate, and Republicans largely oppose a similar House bill passed in June.

.....

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is considering new restrictions on dealers in existing energy markets that may also apply to carbon trading. The commission’s general counsel maintains it can act to limit speculation without action by Congress. The Obama administration this week sent Congress draft legislation that would place new limits on derivatives trading.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=a9qWGysLQ.Cg

[FarCenter]

36. Tapis is $80.12 / barrel

Bonny is $75.03, Oman is $73.56.

[ozymandius]

7. FOMC statement

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20090812a.htm

For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity is leveling out. Conditions in financial markets have improved further in recent weeks. Household spending has continued to show signs of stabilizing but remains constrained by ongoing job losses, sluggish income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Businesses are still cutting back on fixed investment and staffing but are making progress in bringing inventory stocks into better alignment with sales. Although economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time, the Committee continues to anticipate that policy actions to stabilize financial markets and institutions, fiscal and monetary stimulus, and market forces will contribute to a gradual resumption of sustainable economic growth in a context of price stability.

The prices of energy and other commodities have risen of late. However, substantial resource slack is likely to dampen cost pressures, and the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.

In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve will employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. The Committee will maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period. As previously announced, to provide support to mortgage lending and housing markets and to improve overall conditions in private credit markets, the Federal Reserve will purchase a total of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities and up to $200 billion of agency debt by the end of the year. In addition, the Federal Reserve is in the process of buying $300 billion of Treasury securities. To promote a smooth transition in markets as these purchases of Treasury securities are completed, the Committee has decided to gradually slow the pace of these transactions and anticipates that the full amount will be purchased by the end of October. The Committee will continue to evaluate the timing and overall amounts of its purchases of securities in light of the evolving economic outlook and conditions in financial markets. The Federal Reserve is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted.

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Ben S. Bernanke, Chairman; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Elizabeth A. Duke; Charles L. Evans; Donald L. Kohn; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Daniel K. Tarullo; Kevin M. Warsh; and Janet L. Yellen.

[ozymandius]

8. U.S. home foreclosures set another record in July

NEW YORK (Reuters) – U.S. home loans failed at a record pace in July despite ongoing federal and state programs to avoid foreclosures, which have severely strained housing and the economy.

Foreclosure activity jumped 7 percent in July from June and 32 percent from a year earlier as one in every 355 households with a loan got a foreclosure filing, RealtyTrac said on Thursday.

Filings -- including notices of default, auction and bank repossession -- have escalated with unemployment.

.....

More than 360,000 households with loans drew a foreclosure filing in July, a record dating back to January 2005, when RealtyTrac started tracking monthly activity.

.....

Default notices spiked by 86 percent in July, from artificially low levels the prior two months. A state law enacted on April 5 gave delinquent borrowers up to 90 extra days before foreclosure started, RealtyTrac said.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090813/bs_nm/us_usa_mortgages_foreclosures

[ozymandius]

10. 'A Recovery Only a Statistician Can Love'

The pile of economic data indicating that the worst of the recession is over just keeps growing. In the past few weeks, the government has reported that businesses last month shed the smallest number of jobs in nearly a year. The savings rate, after rising rapidly, held steady at levels not seen in at least five years. And from April to June, productivity surged to a six-year high.

But the same data also explain why any recovery isn't going to feel like one anytime soon for millions of Americans. Its existence will be confirmed by statistics, but, over at least the next year, the benefits are unlikely to materialize in the form of higher wages or tax receipts or more jobs.

.....

Increased productivity, combined with other factors, could also bode poorly for employment because as long as businesses can do more with fewer people, they can delay hiring. Adding to that potential delay is the fact that employers have slashed hours to an unprecedented degree to survive the recession. The average time spent working each week is at a record low, and just under 9 million people are working part time for economic reasons.

.....

As a result, many economists said, a jump in productivity increases the odds that the recession will be followed by a "jobless recovery," similar to what followed the 2001 recession. That downturn had similar productivity gains.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/11/AR2009081100988.html

---

In case you have ever wondered about the efficacy of a "jobless recovery": jobless recoveries do not exist.

[Tansy_Gold]

29. Let's see how that works

1. businesses last month shed the smallest number of jobs in nearly a year.

They've already shed virtually all they can and still remain in business. As businesses "on the brink" start to fail, expect to see new claims remain relatively steady for six months or so, then start dropping again.

2. The savings rate, after rising rapidly, held steady at levels not seen in at least five years.

Depends on how you calculate this. Earnings vs. spending or actual savings. Most people are using any leftover after paying for essentials to pay down debt. They aren't "saving" anything. As "essentials" wear out and need to be replaced, that spending will replace paying down debt. More and more, people are simply doing without.

3. And from April to June, productivity surged to a six-year high.

People who have jobs are working harder, desperate to keep them. They'll work through lunch breaks, they'll work unpaid overtime, they'll take work home.


It's not a "jobless recovery." It's a continuation of the funneling of wealth to the already wealthy and screwing the working classes into the dirt.



All of which, of course, is only the uninformed opinion of



Tansy Gold, not home yet but eager to get there.

[Dr.Phool]

39. Sounds like a pretty good opinion to me.

"A continuation of funneling wealth to the already wealthy".

I'm not spending anything. After paying my semi-annual homeowners extortion payment to State Farm, I don't have anything left to spend. Or save for that matter.

[tclambert]

41. He's comparing oranges to orangutans here.

Economists define the official "end of a recession" as the moment GDP begins increasing. That falls way, way short of recovery. The Bush depression may now have ended. The economists won't call it until they get a quarterly report with an increased GDP, likely in November reporting on THIS QUARTER.

However, to recover the jobs lost during this past year and a half of scary economics will likely take 3 to 5 good years. That's "good" in job growth terms, as in years like we had during the Clinton administration. Already we've had 3 months in which the raw number of jobs increased (April, June, and July). Population increase has negated the benefits of that. Jobs have to increase at about 100,000 per month just to keep up with population growth.

We will probably see years of a higher than "normal" unemployment rate. During these years, employers have the upper hand when it comes to wages and working conditions. When this many millions of people are desperate for jobs they are more than qualified for, well, only a fool would storm into Mr. Dithers office and demand a raise. And the Ditherses of the world can think up ways to cut hours, wages, overtime, and benefits. They can treat their employees like they work at Wal-mart, too, and get away with it. If we want to keep our subsistence jobs, we have to smile and say, "Thank you, sir! Can I please have another?"

The end of a recession equals the beginning of a recovery.

[ozymandius]

13. Banks Turn Up Noses At Lending to Small Businesses Under Stimulus Program

From Naked Capitalism:

The 1980s supermodel Linda Evangelista once said. "We don't wake up for less than $10,000 a day." That seems to be the motto of American bankers, (save Citigroup's Andrew Hall, who needs 40 times that much per business day). Not only do they not care about things banks used to deem as important, like playing a role in their community, now they can't even be bribed to go along with pretending that they care.

The latest object lesson is the complete lack of interest in banks in a new SBA lending program. The banks say the loans are too small and too much trouble to be worth the bother, even with a Federal subsidy. I gather it doesn't occur to them if banks don't lend to small businesses, which have been the only engine of job growth, we won't have much improvement in unemployment, and if unemployment doesn't fall, we won't have a much in the way of recovery, and if we don't have much of a recovery, they won't have much of a business. The banks want to be a free riders on someone else doing whatever it takes to get the economy back in gear.

From the New York Times:

Small-business owners hoping for some assistance of the sort given to the nation’s biggest banks applauded when the Small Business Administration unveiled a lending program in May....

But the program is off to a slow start, and many banks, including some of the largest, appear reluctant to take part.

With $255 million, the program is prepared to make about 10,000 loans of up to $35,000 each. As of Monday, the agency reported that only 1,127 loans, totaling $36.8 million, had been extended.

While the agency maintains that the program is on track, some in the banking industry say the banks are moving slowly because they have little incentive. “There’s not a lot of profit motive in a $35,000 loan stretched over six years,” said Paul Merski, chief economist for the Independent Community Bankers of America, a trade association.

Bob Seiwert, of the Center for Commercial Lending and Business Banking at the American Bankers Association, says “stringent underwriting standards” will require as much work as larger loans, making these even less economical....

Yves here. This is one of my pet peeves. Can no journalists be bothered to point out that the Community Bankers of America and the ABA are lobbying groups?

more at link...

[ozymandius]

15. Citi's $100 Million Trader Exempt From Reach of Pay Czar? Yves Smith kicks butt!

The most interesting aspect of the latest stage of the tempest-in-a-teapot over now famous Phibro trader Andrew Hall's contract. which could reap him as much as $100 million in 2009, is that Citi appears to be girding itself for a fight with the government over it. This stance suggests several possibilities, which by the way are not mutually exclusive:

Citi is going to fight every and all pay restrictions on general principle

Citi is really dependent on Hall's earnings, which means the rest of the bank is much weaker and more badly managed than even cynics think

Citi is willing to negotiate a spin-out of Hall, but if the government intervenes, Citi's negotiating posture will be weakened considerably.

Now of course, this list does serve to highlight the complete and utter lack of concern that the big bank has for propriety and social responsibility (although at this point, it verges on belaboring the obvious). The government should be backstopping ONLY critical banking functions, not proprietary trading, and particularly not in a the oil market. Oil has a proud history of price manipulation, as demonstrated by the fact that OPEC moved away from pricing its contracts based on spot prices, which were gamed, to a weighted average of future prices. Even the CFTC has come to the view that speculation can and has influenced oil prices.

The reason the government continues to behave in a schizophrenic fashion, getting tough on issues that are largely symbolic, is that the public has increasingly caught on that it is being had, that we all are paying tremendous subsidies to keep the financial system intact, with nary a demand made of bankers: no requirement that they renegotiate debt, no shared suffering by bank bondholders, who are supposed to be risk capital, no restrictions on risk taking. The rationale for saving the banks is that they are crucial to the economy.

With such extensive safety nets, there are ONLY two approaches that make sense. Either figure out a way to let banks fail, even very big ones, or treat them like utilities, with extensive controls over how they operate. But since a big bank failure could not be resolved overnight, and it also could not be permitted to collapse, that means the authorities would need to be willing to take it over and wind it down. But that looks like nationalization, and we don't do that in America.

Lots more here...

[Hugin]

27. I figure a big problem in all of this is these guys have set themselves up 'poisoned pills'.

Y'know... The financial equivalent of a scorched earth policy from the days of yore.

Not only that, they all have the all the dirt on each other... So, they watch each other's backs.

This may be why a policy of negotiation, diplomacy, and compromise might not be the best approach for the government to take.

[tclambert]

42. Is that like Mutual Assured Destruction?

If one falls, he bombs the others? Hmmm, that sounds interesting. Hey, DOJ, make a deal with one of 'em and start the ratting out race!

[Festivito]

16. Debt: 08/11/2009 11,666,485,985,007.89 (UP 4,538,440,692.00) (Up .2B.)

(Debt up .2B$, FICA side up over four billion.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,330,632,603,032.18 + 4,335,853,381,975.71
UP 246,752,500.45 + UP 4,291,688,191.55

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,070,342 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,992.88.
A family of three owes $113,978.63. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 6,168,682,384.47.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,729,323,161.43.
The average for the last 32 days would be 4,433,740,463.84.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 140 reports in 203 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.37B$ per report, 5.12B$/day so far.
There were 215 reports in 315 days of FY2009 averaging 7.64B$ per report, 5.21B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,258 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/11/2009 11,666,485,985,007.89 BHO (UP 1,039,608,936,094.81 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,641,761,088,095.40 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/22/2009 +000,261,059,305.61 ------------********
07/23/2009 +010,040,233,982.08 ------------**********
07/24/2009 -000,124,358,216.07 ---
07/27/2009 +000,077,777,899.40 ------------******* Mon
07/28/2009 +000,420,333,618.55 ------------********
07/29/2009 +000,733,026,310.02 ------------********
07/30/2009 -026,031,384,097.19 -
07/31/2009 +095,534,108,940.65 ------------**********
08/03/2009 -005,083,538,887.00 -- Mon
08/04/2009 -000,056,382,262.77 ----
08/05/2009 +000,017,974,078.47 ------------*******
08/06/2009 -000,578,106,269.92 ---
08/07/2009 +000,290,467,707.81 ------------********
08/10/2009 +000,222,135,743.03 ------------******** Mon
08/11/2009 +000,246,752,500.45 ------------********

75,970,100,353.12 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power.
Since then US borrowed $2,001,854,181,748.82 in last 327 days.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4011382&mesg_id=4011409

[Festivito]

44. Debt: 08/12/2009 11,658,192,962,449.83 (DOWN 8,293,022,558.06) (Up .08B.)

(Debt up .08B$, i.e. 81M, FICA side down over eight billion.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,330,714,241,624.47 + 4,327,478,720,825.36
UP 81,638,592.29 + DOWN 8,374,661,150.35

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.26 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.77, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,077,542 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 05/25/2009 01:14 -> 306,504,012
Currently, each of these Americans owe $37,964.98.
A family of three owes $113,894.94. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 5,566,111,345.20.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,452,889,076.16.
The average for the last 33 days would be 4,048,080,978.33.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 141 reports in 204 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.26B$ per report, 5.06B$/day so far.
There were 216 reports in 316 days of FY2009 averaging 7.56B$ per report, 5.17B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,257 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.4 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/12/2009 11,658,192,962,449.83 BHO (UP 1,031,315,913,536.75 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,633,468,065,537.40 so far this fiscal year.

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/23/2009 +010,040,233,982.08 ------------**********
07/24/2009 -000,124,358,216.07 ---
07/27/2009 +000,077,777,899.40 ------------******* Mon
07/28/2009 +000,420,333,618.55 ------------********
07/29/2009 +000,733,026,310.02 ------------********
07/30/2009 -026,031,384,097.19 -
07/31/2009 +095,534,108,940.65 ------------**********
08/03/2009 -005,083,538,887.00 -- Mon
08/04/2009 -000,056,382,262.77 ----
08/05/2009 +000,017,974,078.47 ------------*******
08/06/2009 -000,578,106,269.92 ---
08/07/2009 +000,290,467,707.81 ------------********
08/10/2009 +000,222,135,743.03 ------------******** Mon
08/11/2009 +000,246,752,500.45 ------------********
08/12/2009 +000,081,638,592.29 ------------*******

75,790,679,639.80 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power.
Since then US borrowed $1,993,561,159,190.76 in last 328 days.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4012870&mesg_id=4012978

[DemReadingDU]

17. Markopolos: CDS Fraud Will Make Madoff Look "Small-Time"

8/12/09 Markopolos: CDS Fraud Will Make Madoff Look "Small-Time"

Memo to regulators: be forewarned about frauds in the credit-default swap market. They'll make Bernie Madoff's $65 billion fraud "look like small-time."

That's what Harry Markopolos -- Madoff's whistleblower ignored by federal investigators -- is saying, anyway.

New York Post: says there are evildoers out there who will make the Ponzi scum "look like small-time." Markopolos gave a speech to 400 of the faithful at the Greek Orthodox Church in Southampton and predicted major scandals will soon be revealed about the unregulated, $600 trillion, credit-default swap market. "To put it in simple terms, it is like buying fire insurance policies from five different insurance companies on your neighbor's house and then burning down the house," he said.

It's not clear if there are frauds that he knows of, specifically, that he's not disclosing publicly, or if it's just his how the market works -- in which case, he's basically just parroting what a lot of people who hate "naked" CDS have been saying. Either way, we suggest Mary Schapiro or the CFTC pay him a call and get a clarification.

http://www.businessinsider.com/harry-markopolos-cds-fraud-will-make-madoff-look-small-time-2009-8

http://www.nypost.com/seven/08122009/gossip/pagesix/scandal_bigger_than_bernie_184160.htm


and the derivatives bubble is even larger than the CDS bubble

[DemReadingDU]

34. Note: CDS is only $60 trillion market

The derivatives market is over $1000 trillion, that's a quadrillion

[UpInArms]

18. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 78.561 Change -0.282 (-0.36%)

Does the Prospect of a Strong US Recovery Alter the Dollar's Profile?

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/strategy_pieces/watch_what_the_fed_watches/Does_the_Prospect_of_a_1250124081003.html

We’ve seen the dollar endure significant volatility over the past week; but not much direction has come out of it. From pulling itself up from the next leg of a long-term decline to fading its aggressive recovery, the market’s most liquid currency is clearly at the mercy of fundamental uncertainty. As has been the case for many months, the market is having to weigh two significant fundamental themes and each is taking a different path.



The Economy and the Credit Market



We’ve seen the dollar endure significant volatility over the past week; but not much direction has come out of it. From pulling itself up from the next leg of a long-term decline to fading its aggressive recovery, the market’s most liquid currency is clearly at the mercy of fundamental uncertainty. As has been the case for many months, the market is having to weigh two significant fundamental themes and each is taking a different path. First is the dollar’s safe haven influence. This has clearly diminished with time – though the general bias in still in place. On this front, the statement with today’s FOMC rate decision helped to curb the fundamental link that defined the worst of the financial crisis. Despite no change to the benchmark lending rate or the debt purchase programs (Treasury or Agency), the central bank would put a time frame on the purchase of government debt to October – just beyond the September meeting to buy the policy authority time. The other prominent driver for the currency is the pace of the US recovery relative to its major counterparts. Most of the world’s largest nations are on track to breech the positive growth barrier and then stagnate for a time from there. However, the market should concentrate less on deficits in the short-term and instead focus on short-term signs of genuine recovery – like the unexpected, downtick in the July unemployment rate.

...more...

Benchmarking the Economic Recovery is the Next Major Fundamental Driver

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/topheadline/Benchmark_the_Economic_Recovery_is_1250131069127.html

During the worst of the financial crisis through the end of 2008 and even into the opening months of 2009, the market’s primary concern was risk appetite. Interest rate cuts were pervasive and expected return was the last thing on any traders mind. Sharp losses in nearly every investment class leveraged capital preservation into the upper echelons of importance. However, with interest rates bottoming out and safe havens no longer essential, we have seen speculative funds slowly finding their way out of risk-free zones and coming off of the sidelines to once again be put back to work. This leads us to a natural market truism: when fear isn’t the dominant influence, greed takes over.

Always trying to beat the market, traders are trying to find outsized returns and doing so by investing in the economy that is expected to recovery from its economic recession first and most aggressively. This evaluation of relatively growth potential comes with a hearty mix of objective data and highly-sensitive speculation; but with the markets, the latter is always more influential.

Since this market dynamic is developing greater clout among the speculative class, we should gauge which economies are considered leaders and laggards in the early global ‘recovery’ by market participants and which actually have the fundamental underpinnings for a timely return to expansion. As this is a highly speculative endeavor, we will have to leave out a number of factors to simplify a complex market appraisal; so we will need to narrow our focus for contributing factors. We will go over those dynamics that are essential for a genuine recovery; and you can decide whether the market’s outlook (and therefore the currency) has overshot or come up short of fundamentals.

The Bigger Picture

It is easy to lose sight of the true development of long-term, economic factors when employing leverage and looking at daily, weekly or even monthly economic indicators. Most speculation as to a global recovery to this point is exactly that – speculation. Output for the world and the developing nations is still contracting. However, with traditional growth readings from individual economies coming out on a quarterly basis and official assessments of broader measures of activity coming out less frequently, traders are certainly going to be left unsatisfied. Now, there is a focus on the slower pace of contraction for individual countries’ growth readings, housing sector declines, employment depressions, and capital investment slumps among other factors. It needs to be stated though that a slower pace of decline is not expansion. What is perhaps less appreciated is that there is still the burden of establishing a real period of expansion rather than simply returning to positive growth.

When establishing an outlook for activity to this point, we are heading to that point where the recession will end. Yet, by the time that we reach that point, it is very likely that we will see the market is has moved on to projecting sustainable and meaningful economic growth. The essential elements to this appraisal will be employment, consumer spending and credit. For most economies, the consumer is the largest component of growth. When domestic consumption is not spending, businesses lose money, jobs are lost, money stops circulating and then the dependence on foreign sources of income is leveraged. Everything in this enclosed system moves in a circle. Therefore, when we see any one of these factors show genuine improvement, it is likely that the others will follow. If we had to boil it down to one indicator for assurance, employment would be the key. On the other hand, the labor cycle is typically lagging; so credit (and its impact on spending) will likely be the guiding light to true growth.

...more...

[fasttense]

21. Only in economics can a negative 10.86 be considered an improvement. n/t

[the other one]

33. A request for Ozy

Perhaps you could add the US Dollar index chart to the initial thread.

Please.

[UpInArms]

37. hi there, the other one!

glad to have you here -

that's a great idea - here's the chart link

http: // www. weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif

:hi:

[Hawkowl]

46. Dollar's Hit a "Major Bottom," Prechter Says

"Forget all the talk about the dollar being in terminal decline. The recent rally in the greenback is for real, says Robert Prechter, president of Elliott Wave International. The man who correctly predicted the 1987 crash and last year's peak in oil prices now says we're "going to be up for a year or two in the dollar."

Reuters and other mainstream news outlets attribute the recent uptick in the dollar versus other major currencies to an improving economy signaled by Friday's "stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs numbers." Prechter, ever the contrarian, says the U.S. dollar has put in a major bottom but not for the reasons everyone else is pointing to."

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/298957/Dollar%27s-Hit-a-%22Major-Bottom%22-Prechter-Says-Why-That%27s-Not-Such-Good-News?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,UUP,UDN,TBT,GLD,SLV

[DemReadingDU]

30. Robert Prechter: Is the rally soon to be over?

Be sure to watch the video in the link, located in the upper left corner. Prechter puts the recent rally in historic context.
video appx 6.5 minutes.

8/11/09 Robert Prechter "Quite Sure" Next Wave Down Will Be Bigger and March Lows Will Break

In late February, Robert Prechter of Elliott Wave International said "cover your shorts," and predicted a sharp rally that would take the S&P into the 1000 to 1100 range.

With that prediction having come to pass, Prechter is now saying investors should "step aside" from long positions, and speculators should "start looking at the short side."

"The big question is whether the rally is over," Prechter says, suggesting "countertrend moves can be tricky" to predict. But the veteran market watcher is "quite sure the next wave down is going to be larger than what we've already experienced," and take major averages well below their March 2009 lows.

Yes, the late 2007-early 2009 market debacle was just a warm-up to what Prechter believes will be the bear market's main attraction. In this regard, he says the current cycle will echo past post-bubble periods such as America in the 1930s and England in the 1720s, after the bursting of the South Sea bubble.

The 2000 market peak market a "major trend change" for the market from a very long-term cycle perspective, and the downside is going to continue to be painful well into the next decade, Prechter says. "The extreme overvaluation, the manic buying and bubbles in the late 1990s mid-2000s are for the history books - they're very large," he says. "The bear market is going to have balance that out with some sort of significant retrenchment."

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/299205/Bob-Prechter-%22Quite-Sure%22-Next-Wave-Down-Will-Be-Bigger-and-March-Lows-Will-Break


As you watch the video in the link, read the subtitles flashing at the bottom of the video.

[DemReadingDU]

31. Elizabeth Warren: "We Have A Real Problem Coming..."

8/12/09 Elizabeth Warren: "We Have A Real Problem Coming..."

* The banks are still insolvent.

* That little tweak to mark-to-market accounting a couple of months ago has allowed us all to plunge into deep denial.

* Now that the banks are allowed to lie about what their toxic assets are worth, they'll never sell them (because if they did they would have to write them down).

* The smaller banks are undercapitalized and will have to raise another $12-$14 billion. And so on...

Those are the basic messages from Elizabeth Warren, head of the Congressional Oversight Panel. Warren's 10 minutes on Morning Joe (via Zero Hedge) are worth watching.

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-elizabeth-warren-we-have-a-real-problem-coming-2009-8

[spotbird]

38. It must be frustrating to be Warren

Knowing what's going on, but being unable to prevent it. Just like me, but she's much smarter, so it's got to be worse.

[DemReadingDU]

32. Nassim Taleb: You Fools Don't Understand That We're Doomed

another video

8/12/09 Nassim Taleb: You Fools Don't Understand That We're Doomed

The Black Swan graced CNBC with His presence this morning. In sum:

* We're all in denial
* We're replacing private debt with public debt.
* We're not dealing with the cancer in our banking system.
* We're not making the structural changes we need to make.
* We're not being aggressive enough about restructuring debt (debt for equity swaps).
* Bernanke is a wimpy Greenspan sycophant
* Obama's rewarding the fools who got us here (Summers, Bernanke, Geithner)
* The banksters are taking over again

He's pretty much right, by the way.

http://www.businessinsider.com/henry-blodget-taleb-you-fools-dont-understand-that-were-doomed-2009-8

edit
On this morning's singularity event--Nassim Taleb and Nouriel Roubini together on Squawk Box--we found ourselves waiting for the two gloomsters to duke it out. It never really got nasty. But at one point Taleb did chide Roubini for being too friendly to the Fed chairman. "I always agree with Nouriel except on small point. But he has a weakness," Taleb said. "He likes Ben Bernanke too much."

[Hawkowl]

40. $2 Billion in stock insider sales in two weeks

Courtesy of Zerohedge, this is vs. $73 million in insider buys. Bull market my ass.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/last-weeks-insiders-transactions-1-buys-60-million-136-sells-over-115-billion#comments

[tclambert]

43. Stocks up a little today again.

Dow +0.39%, Nasdaq +0.53%, S&P +0.69%

Fannie Mae up a few cents again. I've now made dozens and dozens of dollars, on paper. Ford is up 0.20, too. At $7.90, it's now more than 5 times what it was in February. (Being from the Detroit area, I can't help caring about auto companies.)

[Dr.Phool]

45. I'd pay attention to that video posted by DemReadingDU in post #30.

It makes a lot of sense.

I'm probably going to dump my gold tomorrow or next week at the latest, just to lock in the profits, and ride it out.

[DemReadingDU]

48. Prechter's video was good

The subtitles that were flashed on the video echoed Prechter's opinions.