H1N1 Flu "Serious Health Threat" To U.S.: White House

[Purveyor]

Source: REUTERS

OAK BLUFFS, Massachusetts (Reuters) - The H1N1 flu poses a serious health threat to the United States, the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology said in a report released on Monday.

"The report says the current strain 'poses a serious health threat' to the nation. The issue is not that the virus is more deadly than other flu strains, but rather that it is likely to infect more people than usual because it is a new strain against which few people have immunity," the White House said.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSTRE57N3T920090824

[LiberalEsto]

1. And let's not forget

47% of Americans don't have health coverage.

[TiredOldMan]

4. Source of Number?

What is your source for that incredibly high number. I would like to send it to some of my non-believer friends?

[shadowknows69]

9. Think the poster might have meant 47 million.

[RaleighNCDUer]

13. I think you are correct, which makes it more like 18%. A not inconsiderable

number in itself.

[LiberalEsto]

41. Oops. 47 million is more like it.

Sorry, I hadn't had enough caffeine when I posted.

[shadowknows69]

45. Happens. I need 3 cups to even be human.

I'm a feral, pathetic beast with no language before that.

[LiberalEsto]

60. Same here. And I came down with flu yesterday

I started feeling really awful yesterday afternoon -- muscle aches, fatigue, bad stomach cramps. Ended up sleeping for 12 hours and woke up with a cough and more aches. My daughter had it for over a week, only much worse. She's recovered now. We suspect it's swine flu.
I am able to sit up and type for a few minutes through the miracles of tea and Gatorade, but will be crawling back under the covers shortly. We DU addicts need our daily fix.

[superconnected]

2. Because with the economy, jobs, home prices, and insurance in the dumps

And the incredible cost of health care without insurance, why not have deadly flu epidemic!

[hedgehog]

3. I haven't heard this before - that even without any mutation, the virus

is expected to cause problems simply because so many people will get sick.

[caseymoz]

10. We are looking at 6-8 times the number of influenza deaths than average.

. . . over the next year. The seasonal flu and its complications has a mortality rate of about equal to the Swine Flu right now. The Swine Flu is spreading aggressively, however. The CDC estimates that between 12 and 24 percent of people in the US might become infected. Taking the number at 18 percent, then, it means that maybe 55 million people will become infected. Add another 5-10 million for the seasonal flu. That's 60-65 million cases.

Now, doing some estimates and sloppy math, if .7 percent of those people die from flu, (about the number seen now) that means 350,000 people can be expected to die from the flu this year, unless there is an effective vaccine, or it mutates to a more or less virulent strain. Last year, the flu killed 43,000 people.

You could expect the mortality for children under 4 to be much higher this year. Infant mortality will be higher. And since pregnant women are most susceptible to this flu, you could expect a lot of miscarriages, and maybe-- a rise in birth defects.

I'm not trying to spread hysteria about this, but don't think that this is just a little worse than a normal flu season. It won't nearly be the end of civilization, but depending on how fast they come out with the vaccine, this could be very bad.

[Bragi]

12. Maybe even 100 times more lethal...

"Swine virus more directly lethal than seasonal flu: scientist"

PARIS — People who die after getting swine flu are 100 times more likely, compared to seasonal flu, to have been killed by the virus itself rather than secondary causes, a top French researcher said Monday.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hwcYsgR1yqAvOms5YbO1M9X5Yzfg

(This is early data, but it suggests this flu may not be as all that "mild" after all.)

[hedgehog]

38. I was thinking along the same lines when I made my post.

It doesn't matter how many people die if one of them is someone dear to you.

[Delphinus]

50. Not that I'm disagreeing,

but why doesn't that logic sink in to those who are against true health care reform? (AKA Single Payer, Medicare for All.)

[kestrel91316]

5. Good reason to get the vaccine when it's available, and practice social distancing

when it's going around (LIKE WITH SEASONAL FLU).

[Piewhacket]

6. WHO set this at a Phase 6(!!!!!) World Pandemic of (present) Moderate Severity...

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/frequently_asked_questions/levels_pandemic_alert/en/index.html

Please pay attention folks. It could be merely miserable, or it could get quite bad.
Take extra precautions as school season begins. Wash hands and keep hands off the face.
Change clothes (just put on some jammies) as you return home.
Stock up on supplies. If you get sick, STAY HOME.

[emilyg]

7. First thing I do when I get

home in the evening - take my clothes off and throw them in washer and put on a clean robe.

[caseymoz]

11. What a great idea!

I don't think it's necessary in normal circumstances, but this is good during an epidemic.

[Robb]

53. This sounds like a great ritual

...pandemic notwithstanding. Especially if it continues on to tea. Or scotch. :)

[emilyg]

63. I started that when

I was in nursing. Would put uniform in wash, shower and put on robe. Tea or scotch very acceptable.

[mamaleah]

14. Handwashing and staying home....

If you want to make yourself terrified to ever touch anything again, spend some time in a public restroom and count how many idiots come out of the stalls and do not wash their hands. Or they run them under the water for 5 seconds and call it washed. It'll make you want to beat people.

As for staying home when ill, I understand some people cannot afford to or they do not have paid sick leave. But a lot people of do and choose not to because they want to save their sick days to go play hookie. Those people should be slapped around too.

Stop making everyone sick. Wash your hands. Cover your mouth when you sneeze or cough. Stay home when you are ill. Doesn't anyone have mothers to teach them these simple things anymore???

[hedgehog]

43. And getting your Vitamin D

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/51913.php

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16959053

[mamaleah]

44. That too. And learning Purell won't save you from everything.

As a germaphobe, I am often tempted to horde bottles of Purrell. But they really do not do nearly as much good as a good old fashioned handwashing.

[shadowknows69]

8. I'm still not getting your fucking shot.

[TwixVoy]

15. Swine Flu May Infect Half of U.S., Kill 90,000, Report Says

Source: Bloomberg

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Swine flu may infect half the U.S. population this year, hospitalize 1.8 million patients, and lead to 90,000 deaths, according to a report by White House advisers.

Thirty percent to 50 percent of the country’s population will be infected in the fall and winter, according to the “plausible scenario” outlined in today’s report by the President’s Council of Advisers on Science and Technology. As many as 300,000 patients may require treatment in hospital intensive care units, filling 50 percent to 100 percent of all beds available to those facilities, the study said.


Read more: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0B2C02vJ29I

---

Take this for what it is worth....

[TheEuclideanOne]

16. The normal Flu Season kills 36,000 people?

Is this true? Sorry for ignoring the bigger story, but I find that to be amazing.

[timeforpeace]

19. That's in the US alone. Which is why the hundreds of swine flu deaths WORLDWIDE gives perspective to

the hysteria.

[caseymoz]

33. Hysteria? I don't see it.

We finally have the ability to report on pandemics enough to prepare for and lessen their impact, and now it's called hysteria when it is given any attention.

This is the same nation that has been shrugging at Global Warming for years. The same one that hears about hormone disruptors in the environment causing birth defects and skewing the number of males-to-females. How much discussion or "hysteria" have you heard about that.

If anything, this society has shown a remarkable ability to continue "business as usual" without panic and in denial in the face of deadly, worldwide calamities. So, don't worry too much about hysteria.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

64. In the last H1N1 pandemic the first wave of the virus wasn't very virulent or lethal.

Of course it went on to kill 100 million people. Basing expectations on how severe the first wave was is a very bad idea.

[northernlights]

30. influenza is actually a serious illness. most people die from complications

in the case of seasonal flu. Pneumonia in the case of more virulent flus.

The reason the government is responding so strongly is not necessarily the death rate. If 1/3 to 1/2 the country gets sick within a short period of time, that will lead to schools and businesses forced to shut down for a week or two. That could seriously derail the economy.

The more remote possibility is that it mutates to a more virulent form, which would lead to a much higher death rate.

[Joanne98]

17. And the conservatives are refusing to get the shot!

[timeforpeace]

20. A partisan shot over swine flu! And they said it couldn't be done. Lots of DUers

have posted they won't get the shot btw.

[elocs]

21. That's right, I won't get it. Big difference between "may" and "will".

They sure do love to try and scare people. I remember the Swine Flu shot fiasco from the 1970s. I'll pass this time too.

[RaleighNCDUer]

22. After all, there have be NO improvements in immunology over the

past 35 years.

[elocs]

23. There have been no improvement to distortions and "the sky is falling" attitudes.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. I won't be fooled by the scare tactics again.

[RaleighNCDUer]

27. You obviously know as little about epidemiology as you do about

immunology.

So don't get the shot. Don't bother washing your hands, either. And don't worry about covering up when you sneeze, or about the guy in the elevator beside you who sneezes.

Germ theory is just...a theory.

[elocs]

31. I know a lot about personal choice and I'm excercising it.

Save your sheeple philosophy for someone who cares. I've never had a flu shot and I cannot remember how many decades it has been since I've had the flu.

[caseymoz]

36. Correct, It is your absolute right to chose something stupid to prove that it was stupid.

And it is, after all, possible that they are over-estimating this, in which case and you won't get sick. In which case, your stupidity is canceled out by somebody else's stupidity. Otherwise, you could get lucky, in which case, follow the numbers to see how lucky you were.

However, if everyone gets the vaccine, and so the epidemic isn't that severe, I hope you realize you will never know if it was because health officials were over-estimating it, or if the vaccine stopped it. Unless of course, it is demonstrated statistically that only the paranoid, pseudo-independent-minded people who wouldn't get the shot come down with it.

[northernlights]

32. unless you fall into a priority group, you won't be getting it either

There won't be enough to go around. They've already identified the priority groups that it will be available to. Rollout will also be geographic, as outbreaks occur.


· Pregnant women
· Health care workers and emergency medical responders
· People caring for infants under 6 months of age
· Children and young adults from 6 months to 24 years
· People aged 25 to 64 years with underlying medical conditions (e.g. asthma, diabetes, etc.)

http://www.pandemicflu.gov/vaccine/vacresearch.html#campaign

[hedgehog]

40. This is what makes this flu scary to me. My college age kids

are at a higher risk than me or their grandparents.

[caseymoz]

57. Not actually. They may be more susceptible to getting it.

The initial reports from first outbreak in Mexico was that it had a higher mortality rate than usual in the 15-60 category, but that either hasn't borne out as they more statistics came in, or it mutated to something less threatening in that age group. I've heard that so far as they could tell, its mortality demographics are pretty standard.

No, so far it seems that it's infants, toddlers and seniors who are at greatest risk of death from the flu. Pregnant women are known to be pretty vulnerable to this strain.

It isn't so much that this flu is more deadly by percentage, it is just more aggressively contagious for some reason.

See the CDC website for more information: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/general_info.htm

[caseymoz]

34. Scare tactics? For what conspiracy?

It's possible that people are wrong, but doesn't it take a sinister plan, and not human error, to use "scare tactics." Maybe you mean hysteria, but I don't see that yet. People get hysterical, maybe, when half their office dies of something, flu or not. But they've shown the ability to absolutely shrug and go about their business in the face of major crises like Global Warming.

Hysteria is overstated. If they are, as you implied, deliberate scare tactics, and not, say, wrong recommendations based on human error, what are the tactics meant to do? Are you afraid the vaccine is laced with some mind-control drug? Or is it just some kind of joke? Help me understand this here.

What I know is, I've come down with miserable flus half the years I didn't get the shot, and have come down with none since I began getting the shot-- about nine years now. So I'm believer.

[Old Time Pagan]

39. Apparently you've missed these stories

British Newspaper Reveals Letters About Swine Flu Shot Risks

http://www.statejournal.com/story.cfm?func=viewstory&storyid=64919

US Media silent on Swine Flu vaccine link to Nerve disorders

http://www.24medica.com/content/view/358/2/

I lived through the last swine flu outbreak without a vaccination and I think I'll take that route again. Of course I do eat well, wash my hands, and take other steps to ensure that my immune system is in good shape and ready to do its job.

Oh and by the way, germ theory is just that, a theory. Our understanding of the microbial world and its interactions with us is subject to constant revision and much of what was sworn to be gospel when I was in graduate school has been either modified or outright discarded.

[northernlights]

46. gravity is "just theory"

that doesn't mean you won't fall a long way if you jump off the empire state building.

For something to reach the level of "just theory" in science, it generally has been subjected to extensive testing, with reproduceable, supportive results.

The Brits are overreacting. Studies have shown that Guillain-Barre Syndrome (the mystery nerve disorders referenced above) is linked to flu-like illnesses, and vaccines for flu-like illnesses, and people who get flu vaccines within a few weeks of having had a flu-like illness.

You are at higher risk of getting Guillain-Barre if you don't get vaccinated and do get the flu, than if you if you get vaccinated (provided you haven't been sick a few weeks before the vax).


http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15562126?ordinalpos=1&itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_DiscoveryPanel.Pubmed_Discovery_RA&linkpos=3&log$=relatedarticles&logdbfrom=pubmed

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19033158?ordinalpos=1&itool=EntrezSystem2.PEntrez.Pubmed.Pubmed_ResultsPanel.Pubmed_DiscoveryPanel.Pubmed_Discovery_RA&linkpos=2&log$=relatedarticles&logdbfrom=pubmed

[Old Time Pagan]

47. What is the point of citing those articles?

They have nothing to do with GBS and the swine flu vaccine episode of 1976-77. Both articles were written about data gathered after 1990 and I'm always so very impressed by people who cite scientific articles and declare them significant after only reading the abstract. It also appears you might have missed what I thought was fairly important in the Haber, et al article and I quote:

"The long onset interval and low prevalence of other preexisting illnesses are consistent with a possible causal association between GBS and influenza vaccine. These findings require additional research, which can lead to a fuller understanding of the causes of GBS and its possible relationship with influenza vaccine."

Not to mention the fact that that study had NOTHING to do with the cases of GBS resulting from swine flu vaccine.

As to the relevance of your quip about gravity as "just theory." How many changes have you seen in the scientific community concerning gravity? I've seen some pretty radical changes in "germ theory" in the past 25 years.

So for now I'm not going to jump off the Empire State building OR take a rushed vaccine to protect me from the swine flu.

You want to put your full faith and trust in our current method of doing science you go right ahead. I got out of my field when I realized it was profit driven rather than knowledge driven and the ethics and morality behind how those discoveries were going to be used, it is to laugh.

Here's a free tip: If you're going to have any credibility when citing scientist studies do try to pick ones that are relevant to the issue at hand. No need to thank me, I do it as a public service.

[caseymoz]

56. I'm thinking that there have been a few advances in developing vaccines since then.

Especially since the one thing all corporations hate without exception is to be sued. Since 1977, I haven't heard of the same troubles with flu shots since, but there's a slight chance that a person can have a serious adverse reaction to a vaccine. They may fudge experiments, by I presume that they themselves don't want to be totally ignorant about what they are going to be giving the public.

In general, you are right about science revising theories. I'm certain the theory of gravity will probably be revised now that much more powerful particle accelerators are coming on line. Probably scientists aren't going to call it gravity anymore or something, but that doesn't mean it's going immediately change how we design and fly airplanes. The same with the germ theory. Vaccinations have been a great advance in public health.

You might have seen radical changes in the germ theory as they find out more about microbial life, but I am curious as to why you would suggest that that particular theory is going to be overthrown and what you expect it to be replaced with. Also, why would you also give it as a reason for not getting vaccines? Whether or not everything is known about contagious diseases, vaccinations based on the germ theory have proven to be quite an advance in health.

In general, that is. This says nothing about the H1N1 vaccine being developed.

I would think that vaccine-makers learned some things from the 1976 vaccine. I am very curious as to what insight you have that tells you otherwise.

BTW, the seasonal flu kills 36,000 people a year in the USA. GBS killed 25.

[Raster]

25. Good.

[TheEuclideanOne]

28. Really?

Perhaps there is a bright side to the swine flue?

[Delphinus]

59. I'm not a conservative

and I have no intention of getting the shot. I had a very nice discussion with someone about this here on DU a few weeks ago.

[Mist]

18. Isn't that something like .03% of the population? nt

[caseymoz]

58. Yes.

[lib_wit_it]

24. Oh, please Sir, please, can all 90,000 of them be freepers? And can their circumcised or

uncircumcised dicks all fall off first?

Sorry, the birthers are really pissing me off, now.

I used to be a much nicer person before the stupidest fucking people in this country became media darlings.

[tomm2thumbs]

26. Town halls are a great place to get the Swine Flu - all that shouting and spitting

I highly encourage lots of Freepers to go and shout and spit all over each other

[caseymoz]

29. I hope they are not vastly underestimating the number of deaths, because it looks like it.

The death rate for the Swine flu, http://wiki.answers.comQ/What_percentage_of_people_die_from_the_2009_swine_flu">is about 0.42 percent according to WHO as compared to http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_percentage_of_people_die_from_the_2009_swine_flu">0.12 for the seasonal flu.

If 30 percent of the country's population gets this flu, that's:

0.3 x 300 million people = 90 million cases.

With a death rate of about 0.4 that's:

.004 x 90,000,000 = 360,000 deaths.

Without a vaccine and quickly, we are facing over a a third of a million deaths per year, in addition to the seasonal flu, which normally causes about 36,000 deaths a year.

Though I guess the administration is using the lowest death rate it could possibly plug in.

[northernlights]

35. oops. your 1st link is broken. I think your 2nd link is supposed to be the 1st

but it's not WHO, it's Wiki...so maybe not?

Possibly they're factoring in vaccinating half the population to limit outbreaks, better healthcare here, along with availability of anti-virals? I read somewhere weeks ago that the wealthier nations pretty much bought up all the tamiflu, relenza and whatever other anti-viral there is...

[KoKo]

37. According to "White House Advisors?" Sheesh...are we back to terror threat tactics?

:shrug: Scaring people unnecessarily is just plain wrong. Remember SARS?

[hedgehog]

42. SARS was very serious. The reason it wasn't a disaster is that

public health agencies all over the world stepped in to identify and isolate people who'd been exposed. Major efforts in China identified the civet as the animal reservoir and tried to prevent human contact.

As the first wave of SARS began to subside, the death rate proved to have been about 14 or 15 percent of those diagnosed. In people over age 65, the death rate was higher than 50 percent. Many more were sick enough to require mechanical ventilation. And more still were sick enough to require hospitalization in intensive care units.

Intensive public health policies are proving to be effective in controlling outbreaks. Many nations have stopped the epidemic within their own countries. All nations must be vigilant, however, to keep this disease under control. Viruses in the coronavirus family are known for their ability to change (mutate) in order to better spread among humans.

http://health.nytimes.com/health/guides/disease/severe-acute-respiratory-syndrome-sars/overview.html#Outlook-Prognosis

[KoKo]

48. Really....? And, you don't remember the hype about that? Vaccine Ramp Up

for Big Pharma...yet, untested enough. Folks worry about Chinese Melamine and Lead in kids and animal products but you trust BIG PHARMA! :eyes:

[hedgehog]

49. There wasn't any vaccine for SARS.

GENEVA, Switzerland (CNN) -- The World Health Organization says its latest data shows SARS is far more deadly than first thought -- killing about 15 percent of people who catch the flu-type disease.

http://www.cnn.com/2003/HEALTH/05/08/sars/index.html

[KoKo]

51. SARS was supposed to kill more than 90,000. I guess it didn't...

and without a vaccine...it's amazing we all survived, isn't it. :shrug:

[hedgehog]

52. Did you even read any of the links? SARS was contained through the

efforts of a number of health agencies identifying and isolating those exposed. If you go back to contemporary news article, it's clear that a lot of other countries were upset because the Chinese concealed a lot of deaths at first so it almost got away before anyone else realized there was a hazard.

How about this:

Poor Hospital Practices Blamed for 2003 SARS Epidemic in Toronto

TORONTO, Jan. 9 — A provincial commission investigating the SARS outbreak in 2003 reported Tuesday that poor hospital infection-control procedures led to the epidemic in the Toronto area that killed 44 people.

“Systemic problems ran through every hospital and every government agency,” Doug Hunt, chief counsel for the commission, said at a news conference at which the findings were released.

The outbreak surfaced in February 2003, when a woman from the Toronto area contracted the virus on a trip to Hong Kong and returned home, dying soon after. Her son went to a hospital with an unidentified condition that was later diagnosed as SARS. While waiting for 16 hours in a crowded emergency room, the man transmitted the virus to two other patients, and it continued to spread, the commission’s report says.

Of the 375 SARS cases eventually identified in Ontario Province, health care workers accounted for 45 percent. Two nurses and a doctor died from their infections.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/10/world/americas/10canada.html?_r=1

One guy sat in a crowded ER and started an epidemic that killed 44 people.

[neverforget]

55. It's easier to cry hysteria or conspiracy and blame big pharma or

the government. The fact that viruses mutate and have been around since life began is of no consequence; that pandemics happened before big pharma existed; that people have died from pandemics since we started walking the Earth doesn't matter. Big Pharma and the government trying to scare you. That's what matters.

[Fire_Medic_Dave]

67. But what about that vaccine ramp up you so vividly remembered.

[RaleighNCDUer]

61. The CDC and WHO are not big pharma.

And THEY were the ones worried about it. And I don't doubt that big pharma was somewhat worried, too, because in the case of a massive pandemic the industry would not be able to meet the demand, hundreds of thousands, or even millions, could die and THEY would get the blame.

If a pandemic is breaking out the only rational response is a massive one that will nip it in the bud - particularly for a highly communicable disease like flu or SARS. Reacting conservatively, doing too little, is hardly better than doing nothing at all.

[Arrowhead2k1]

54. Better hurry up with the healthcare Obama.

[endless october]

62. i will be getting the shot.

GBS risk is one case per million doses. REGULAR flu kills 34,000 a year in the US alone. flu shots are a good idea.

[progressivebydesign]

65. and 450k people will DIE from tobacco this year in the US alone.

Weird how people choose what to get freaked out over. Sorta like the poor guy who died in a car wreck the other day, and his family was saying how awful it was that he died, because he was just "on his way to buy cigarettes." I guess dying from lung cancer, stroke, heart attack, or emphsema, is better than the flu.

[neverforget]

66. True but tobacco is a choice while the flu chooses you