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WSJBRUSSELS -- This weekend's U.S.-China trade skirmish is just the tip of a coming protectionist iceberg, according to a report released Monday by Global Trade Alert, a team of trade analysts backed by independent think tanks, the World Bank and the U.K. government.
A report by the World Trade Organization, backed by its 153 members and also released Monday, found "slippage" in promises to abstain from protectionism, but drew less dramatic conclusions. (Read the report.)
Governments have planned 130 protectionist measures that have yet to be implemented, according to the GTA's research. These include state aid funds, higher tariffs, immigration restrictions and export subsidies.
For example, Russia has planned across-the-board tariff increases, South Africa is changing government purchasing rules to favor domestic firms owned by nonwhites, and Japan is rewriting sanitation policies in a way that will restrict food imports.
The variety of today's protectionism demarcates it from the famed tariff-based economic warfare of the 1930s. Economists say the bottom line isn't as dire as then, but that creeping protectionism presents a firm obstacle to economic recovery. Global trade is expected to shrink 10% in 2009....
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Whether good or bad, expect the prices of imported items to rise.