STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday September 22

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday September 22, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON September 21, 2009

Dow... 9,778.86 -41.34 (-0.42%)
Nasdaq... 2,138.04 +5.18 (+0.24%)
S&P 500... 1,064.66 -3.64 (-0.34%)
Gold future... 1,005 -5.40 (-0.53%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.48 +0.02 (+0.49%)
30-Year Bond 4.23 +0.02 (+0.38%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

The Thin Edge of the Hedge
BY ROB KIRBY

A couple of weeks ago, Barrick Gold Corp. announced it was raising 3 billion dollars via equity issue and taking a $5.6 billion 3rd quarter charge so they could eliminate their 9.5 million ounce “hedge book” over the next 12 months,

Barrick Gold to eliminate hedges, plans offer
By ROB GILLIES
ASSOCIATED PRESS WRITER

TORONTO -- Barrick Gold Corp., the world's biggest gold producer, said Tuesday it plans to eliminate all of its gold hedges and raise $3 billion in a share offering to help pay for the move.

The Toronto-based company cited the bullish outlook for gold. Its announcement came on a day the price of the metal rose above $1,000 per ounce to its highest level since March 2008.

Gold hedges are futures contracts that commit a company to selling the metal at set prices. While hedges guarantee certain cash flows, they often commit a metals producer to ship the gold at prices lower than the current spot price. Barrick's decision to pay off its hedges amounts to a bet that gold prices will keep rising.
...

Since Barrick announced their intentions, much has been written about the effect such an announcement might have, not only on Barrick’s share price going forward, but on the price of gold itself.

What has not been discussed in any meaningful manner is the very nature of gold hedges themselves.

When gold mining companies “hedge” future production, sovereign physical gold bullion is sourced by and then sold through a “bullion bank.” The cash proceeds from the sale of physical bullion are then used by the mining concern to finance capital costs related to mine construction.

Interestingly, when Central Banks conduct these gold trades they continue to report – for accounting purposes – as if they still had clear title to the physical bullion.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Hugin]

10. Sooo, uh... Ozy.

Which SMW poster did you sell off last night? Demeter? AnneD? DemReadingDU? UIA? GhostDog? Tansy_Gold?

Word on the street has it you're working a deal for tclambert with Fox Business News. :tappingfoot:

Anyway, luckily, the gang was able to buy me back for $0.03 cash, some string, two sticks of un-chewed gum, and an old car wash token.

I'm watch'n you!

:rofl:

[ozymandius]

14. Heh! Indeedy.

My reputation for having extraordinary pimping skills appears to be gaining traction. Never fear, Hugin, as I will not attempt to broker either a sale or a lease of your person any time soon. I suspect that you need a rest after passing through so many hands.

As for tclambert - the situation is really reversed. After the successful stock purchase and sale, earning tclambert a fantastical sum of money, Fox Bidness News may become tclambert's property. I do not expect the purchase to be too extravagant. Word has it that after one drink, Fox Bidness News is anybody's.

[tclambert]

20. But I would chew my arm off in the morning.

[Hugin]

22. If you needed money, all you had to do was ask.

Then we could've laughed about it together. :D

[tclambert]

24. I assure you, my investments and successes were small.

But Integrys (TEG) is up almost 6% since I bought a few shares, and Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP) is up almost 14%. Nice appreciation, but I bought them for the dividends, which I don't get unless I hang onto them. So I'm gonna hang onto them, which makes the price appreciation moot.

[tclambert]

21. Your're trying to sell me off?

To Fox? Ouch. Your wit cuts me to the quick.

I do, however, find myself in possession of a soul, which I am not making much use of at the moment, and I've always wanted to play a musical instrument . . .

[AnneD]

38. Have Mattress....

will Travel...I'm still here but busy. Boy do I have a story to tell once I have some free time.

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Report

10:00 FHFA US Housing Price Index Jul
Briefing.com 0.4%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior 0.5%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[ozymandius]

3. Oil hangs near $70 in Asia after big tumble

BANGKOK – Oil prices hung near $70 a barrel Tuesday in Asia after falling steeply overnight amid news that China's crude consumption fell in August.

.....

Energy consumption in North America and Europe has been crimped by recession, leaving China as one of the few countries that continue to consume oil, gasoline and diesel in growing quantities. That pace, at least during late summer, appeared to slow, according to a report released Monday.

Chinese oil demand slid 5.4 percent in August from July, the first month-to-month drop since March, according to Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., as the world's second-largest oil consumer reined in oil imports and crude throughput rates at its domestic refineries.

.....

In other Nymex trading, gasoline for October delivery rose 1.61 cents to $1.7675 a gallon, and heating oil rose 2.12 cents to $1.7729 a gallon. Natural gas, after tumbling more than 5 percent, was up 10.5 cents to $3.681 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Ghost Dog]

13. Asian shares subdued

HONG KONG (Reuters) - Asian shares inched up on Tuesday with softer commodity prices weighing on Australian stocks, while the New Zealand dollar hit a 13-month high on signs of a recovery in prices for the country's key dairy exports.

The U.S. dollar ran out of steam, holding steady at around 92 yen, as short covering waned, after it jumped on Monday to as high as 92.53 yen. However, analysts do not expect the U.S. currency to slip much ahead of a U.S. Federal Reserve monetary meeting beginning later Tuesday and a G20 summit this week.

Volumes were capped as Japanese financial markets are closed until Thursday for public holidays. Malaysian and Indonesian markets were also closed for public holidays.

In Australia, shares were little changed, dampened by an overnight drop in commodities prices although gold edged back up in Asian trade and oil recovered to just below $70 a barrel. South Korean shares climbed 1 percent, helped by gains in tech stocks but telecom shares fell on worries that tariffs will be slashed.

...

China shares were slightly higher but investors across the region were subdued after the Dow Jones (DJI:^DJI - News) dipped 0.4 percent on Monday and demand concerns depressed commodities prices.

The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks traded outside Japan edged up 0.7 percent and the Asian Development Bank raised its growth forecasts for developing Asia to 3.9 percent for 2009, from 3.4 percent, and lifted its 2010 forecast to 6.4 percent from 6 percent.

/... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Asian-shares-subdued-Kiwi-rb-1552139944.html?x=0&.v=2

[Demeter]

27. Yeah, well, they are still buying cars in China

Ozy, do you offer marriage brokering? Dating services? Anything short of white slavery?

[ozymandius]

4. BofA to face SEC trial, exits loss-sharing deal

WASHINGTON – Bank of America Corp. now faces a trial with the Securities and Exchange Commission over billions in bonuses paid at Merrill Lynch, after a judge threw out the bank's $33 million settlement and rebuked the agency for not pursuing charges against executives.

The news comes as Bank of America executive Anne Finucane prepares to meet Tuesday with Rep. Edolphus Towns, D-N.Y., about BofA's takeover of the troubled investment bank. BofA missed a Monday deadline to turn over details of the hastily arranged acquisition to a congressional committee.

.....

On Monday, the SEC said it will "vigorously pursue" its case against Bank of America, adding that it could seek to bring additional charges if supported by the record of evidence that develops in the trial — meaning it could charge individual executives.

.....

Rep. Edolphus Towns, D-N.Y. and chairman of House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, told the bank in a letter Friday that it was hiding behind attorney-client privilege, which Congress can refuse to recognize during its investigations. Silvestri declined to comment on whether or not the bank met the deadline, but said Anne Finucane, a member of Bank of America's executive management team, will meet with Towns Tuesday to discuss the matter.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090922/ap_on_bi_ge/us_sec_bank_of_america

[ozymandius]

7. Bank of America to Pay for Merrill Backstop, Faces SEC Trial

Sept. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp., the biggest U.S. bank, said it will pay the government $425 million to cancel an unused guarantee of Merrill Lynch & Co.’s assets and cut reliance on federal support after two bailouts.

The payment would end a dispute over what the bank owes the U.S. for a promise to help absorb losses on $118 billion of holdings, mostly at Merrill Lynch. The federal guarantee helped seal Bank of America’s takeover of the New York-based brokerage after fourth-quarter losses spiraled past $15 billion. While the accord was announced in January, an agreement was never signed and the bank resisted paying.

Chief Executive Officer Kenneth D. Lewis has said he wants to shrink the U.S. role in company affairs. Paying the fee is part of a plan to reduce “reliance on government support and return to normal market funding,” the company said yesterday in a statement. The Treasury Department, Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. will get the money.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ac1jAfbVCUSw

[ozymandius]

5. F.D.I.C. May Borrow Funds From Banks

WASHINGTON — Tired of the government bailing out banks? Get ready for this: officials may soon ask banks to bail out the government.

Senior regulators say they are seriously considering a plan to have the nation’s healthy banks lend billions of dollars to rescue the insurance fund that protects bank depositors. That would enable the fund, which is rapidly running out of money because of a wave of bank failures, to continue to rescue the sickest banks.

The plan, strongly supported by bankers and their lobbyists, would be a major reversal of fortune.

.....

Borrowing from the industry is allowed under an obscure provision of a 1991 law adopted during the savings and loan crisis. The lending banks would receive bonds from the government at an interest rate that would be set by the Treasury secretary and ultimately would be paid by the rest of the industry. The bonds would be listed as an asset on the books of the banks.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/22/business/22bailout.html

[Po_d Mainiac]

26. At what? Credit card rates :groan: n/t

[DemReadingDU]

41. So they are using our money at the banks to support the FDIC

So the FDIC can insure our money at the banks.

:crazy:


oops, spelling.

[ozymandius]

6. Shrinking Money Supply Dampens Inflation Fears

The Federal Reserve stands accused of risking high inflation by recklessly printing too much money. But as Fed rate setters meet in Washington on Sept. 22-23, they won't see an excess of money sloshing around. Just the opposite. Paradoxically, the latest statistics show a shrinkage in the broadest measures of money.

The upshot: Members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee are likely to announce on the afternoon of Sept. 23 that they are sticking with their stimulative monetary policy. Inflation, while always a risk, remains more of a long-term threat. The economy is so soft and the banking system is so weak that deflation remains a clearer and more present danger.

To fight the recession, the Federal Reserve has vastly increased the amount of reserves that banks have on deposit at the Fed. In a healthy economy, banks would take advantage of those reserves to increase their lending. Instead, they're hoarding the money, so the Fed's loose monetary policy isn't resulting in more loans. It's the process of lending that expands the amount of money in the economy.

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/content/sep2009/db20090921_752884.htm

[Ghost Dog]

12. Euro hits 1-yr high as mkt resumes dollar selling

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4071147

Lower dollar + some protectionism -> more manufacturing jobs in USA?

[Po_d Mainiac]

36. It's also at another of the support levels

The next stop could easily be the record lows of last spring. Or worse.

At what point will chopper ben test the recovery with a rise in interest rates? Damn how QE has a tendency to bite you in the ass!

[girl gone mad]

37. Businessweek is still getting it wrong.

It's the demand from borrowers that increases the money supply, not the excess reserves sitting un-utilized in bank vaults. Leave it to the finance sector to always and forever be overstating their importance.

http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2009/09/2-nobel-economists-confirm-that-credit.html

[ozymandius]

43. I agree.

If liquidity among the banks actually spurred demand then, by extension, Reaganomics would, you know, actually work.

[ozymandius]

8. News Corp closes Asian magazine

Rupert Murdoch's News Corp is to close its Hong Kong-based magazine, the Far Eastern Economic Review.

The closure is the latest blow to a media industry struggling to cope with the downturn in advertising.

News Corp last week published the last edition of its freesheet, the London Paper, and plans to charge for its news content across all its websites.

The 63-year-old Far Eastern Economic Review will publish its last issue in December, the media giant said.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8268408.stm

[ozymandius]

9. TREASURIES-Long-dated prices slip ahead of Fed meeting

* Longer-dated bonds slip ahead of Fed meeting

* Shorter maturities gain on stock losses

* Fed could say economy expanding

* Treasury will auction $112 bln of coupons this week

By Ellen Freilich

NEW YORK, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Long-dated U.S. Treasuries slipped on Monday ahead of another massive wave of debt auctions and a Federal Reserve policy meeting that could strike a more positive tone on the economy.

But stock market losses kept a bid under shorter-dated U.S. government securities as investors sought their safe-haven appeal.

.....

The Fed is not expected to change interest rates at the meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday but could hint it is mulling rate hikes and dim demand for less risky assets like public debt.

http://www.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUSN2157757820090921

[FBaggins]

18. Premature (IMO)

Even if we've seen the bottom... and even if we don't retest anywhere close to it... we're still due for a pullback and there's always a narrative that goes along with it. That narrative will certainly call in to question whether the economy is truly in recovery and/or whether we'll "double dip".

This means that (at least for those weeks), rates will decline and oil will crumble.

Ironically... it could be a fed statement that hints at rate increases that sparks this corrective move.

[tclambert]

25. Unemployment vs. Pent-up demand

Those are the opposing forces I see working on the economy right now. It looks like the banking crisis has passed, though Option ARMS, Alt-As, and commercial real estate keep that question unsettled.

People put off spending during the past year and half. That should have created quite a lot of pent-up demand. If people start buying the things they put off buying for all that time, it could drive business activity upward.

HOWEVER (big however), high unemployment means fewer customers with money. I keep telling people to remember that the workers of the world are also the customers of the world. When businesses cut costs by downsizing or reducing employee salaries, they also reduce the amount of ready money that the buying public has. That puts serious drag on the economy.

Until we see unemployment significantly decreasing, the economy remains fragile, and could turn worse if a gnat lands on it.

[FBaggins]

31. I agree in general, but

this assumes that there has been no fundamental shift in consumption. It might take years as some people decide that saving $50 (or whatever) is worth more to them than someone else mowing their lawn.

I'd also say that there's the possibility of a minor "wealth effect" as some people who acclimatized themselves to 50% losses start to spend some of the recovery gains.

[InkAddict]

39. Pfff...pent-up demand

New work shoes at the outlet store and, finally, a salon haircut instead of the kid cut, for the PT, no HC job.
Needed tires and brakes that will make it more safely to the wage-slave job through winter;
Small freezer to take advantage of garden dividends and grocery meat sales;
Payment of very small local tax arrears;
Some pent-up demand

All merely viewed as the last trade-offs before FORCED early retirement permanent poverty.

No Coach bag, here, ever! No DRIVE to ALASKA vacation or anywhere else, ever!

Whither go the green shoots? -
"Now is the Winter of our discontent made glorious by this Son of York."

[tclambert]

47. It's the sons of New York that got us.

How about " . . . made glorious summer by the sons of bitches of Wall Street" instead?

There is pent-up demand, though, because stuff does break down and wear out. This Christmas season will reveal a lot. Last Christmas was dismal from the retail point of view. Will it improve this year? We will know in about four months.

[ozymandius]

11. Reasons to Despise the Bush Junta (#23,188)

The debt load crisis was clearly heading toward us at full throttle. Yet they did nothing. - ozymandius

Inspector General: FDIC saw risks at IndyMac in 2002

From the Inspector General Report:

Between 2001 and 2003, (Division of Insurance and Research) DIR risk assessments and quarterly banking profiles identified concerns about a number of issues, including:

• consumers’ ever-increasing debt load, the expansion of adjustable rate mortgages, and a potential housing bubble;
• subprime and high loan-to-value (HLTV) lending as a risk in the event that the United States economy suffered a significant recession; and
• pricing and modeling charge-off risk with respect to the originate-to-sell model of the mortgage business.

In January 2002, DIR noted that non-recession-tested lending programs such as subprime lending and HLTV lending may pose the biggest threat to consumer loan portfolio credit quality in a slowing economy. In May 2003, DIR reported that there was a concern about the extent to which lenders’ scoring models under-predicted losses during the 2001 recession. DIR noted that many subprime lenders experienced loss rates higher than their models predicted and that some consumer lending business models had been found to be inadequate, including those that relied on the securitization market for funding and were, therefore, sensitive to market pricing changes.

.....

Clearly the FDIC DIR was on the right track in 2001 to 2003. Just like with the Federal Reserve failure of oversight, we need a clear explanation why no significant action was taken.*

---

*Indeed.

[ozymandius]

17. From Padilla's Report

Despite these risks, the FDIC switched to relying on examinations from the OTS from 2004 to mid 2007, a period in which Indymac “continued to rely heavily on volatile funding sources such as brokered deposits and (Federal Home Loan Bank) advances to fund its growth.”

During that period, FDIC had a turnover problem, with five different case managers handling IndyMac.

As has been previously reported, the Office of Thrift Supervision allowed IndyMac to backdate a capital infusion to the first quarter of 2008, even though it was made in the second quarter. Here’s more from the report (bold added):

Further, although there was a noticeable deterioration in IMB in the fourth quarter of 2007 and into 2008, the FDIC did not suggest that OTS take, or itself take, any enforcement action against IMB. Notably, the FDIC’s analysis and conclusions of IMB’s first quarter 2008 financial data were affected by a capital contribution adjustment that was permitted by OTS. Had the capital contribution not been reflected in the first quarter data:

(1) IMB would have been required to request a waiver from the FDIC to continue to receive brokered deposits and

(2) the value of assets pledged as collateral to secure FHLB advances would have been reduced, thereby limiting the amount of FHLB advances and possibly the cost of IMB’s failure.

The report paints FDIC officials as aware of risks but not doing enough about them. That’s a $10 billion mistake.

http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2009/09/21/fdic-saw-risks-at-indymac-in-2002-but-failed-to-act/18019/

[InkAddict]

40. When did they ever try?

Doncha love it when a plan comes together a la "A"-Team? Guess we had to wait for the McGyver TGIP temporary solution.

BTW, your quote is also analogous to Katrina's devastation of NOLA! Heckofajob, I say!

[Tansy_Gold]

48. We need to stop looking backward, dontcha know?

Never mind that we might see the train barreling down upon us at 800 miles an hour (faster than the speed of sound so we wouldn't hear it until it had already run over us).

And of course, if we don't look backward we will never understand the mistakes that were made and therefore we will have plausible deniability if someone -- including ourselves of course -- makes those same mistakes again.

patooie. worthless cretins all.




Tansy Gold

[Ghost Dog]

15. FTSE up 1 pct early as commodity issues rebound

LONDON, Sept 22 (Reuters) - Britain's leading share index rose 1 percent in early trade on Tuesday, buoyed by a rebound in commodity issues which gained strength from a rise in metals and oil prices, while defensive utilities lost ground.

By 0817 GMT the FTSE 100 .FTSE was up 48.64 points at 5,183.00, after closing 0.7 percent lower on Monday to end a six-session winning streak.

Miners added the most points to the index as metals prices turned positive. Fresnillo (FRES.L), BHP Billiton (BLT.L), Kazakhmys (KAZ.L), Lonmin (LMI.L), Rio Tinto (RIO.L), Xstrata (XTA.L) and Vedanta Resources (VED.L) rose 2.4 to 4 percent.

The FTSE has rebounded close to 50 percent since the lows hit in March, and is on track to post the best quarterly gains since the index was launched in 1984. Trading, however, was subdued at just 9 percent of the average 90-day trading volume.

"Nobody seems to be understanding the rally very well. Because we've had so much momentum people are very reluctant to short it," said Arifa Sheikh-Usmani, equity trader at Spreadex. "Generally there is a sense that the market has overheated a little and might just stagnate for a while," she said.

Investors will be keeping a close eye on a two-day U.S. Federal Reserve meeting which begins on Tuesday, and a G20 meeting at the end of the week.

/... http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idCALM20061120090922?rpc=44

[Ghost Dog]

16. Sterling falls against the euro as parity beckons

Sterling continues to fall against the euro as increasing numbers of market watchers believe a move to parity is on the cards.

At 10.44, sterling was trading at €1.1031 against the euro – within spitting distance of all-time lows of €1.0193 last December.

Ian Williams, strategist at Altium Securities, says yesterday's quarterly report from the Bank of England has put extra pressure on sterling. 'The bank's bulletin highlighted the reality that the UK economy needs to rebalance towards a greater contribution from exports and investment. It wasn't a forecast, but investors needed little further excuse to dump more pounds,' he said.

...

'Sterling continued its weakness after a Bank of England report warned that the financial crisis might have prompted a downward reassessment of sterling’s long term value. Our FX strategists believe that EURGBP will hit parity,' said Jon Adkins.

/.. http://www.citywire.co.uk/personal/-/news/money-property-and-tax/content.aspx?ID=358342

[Festivito]

19. Debt: 09/18/2009 11,807,667,118,297.67 (DOWN 1,571,920,140.73) (Down a bit.)

(Debt down nearly one-third billion, FICA drops about one-and-a-quarter billion.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,504,720,341,482.68 + 4,302,946,776,814.99
DOWN 312,998,363.37 + DOWN 1,258,921,777.36

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 307-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.76, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,478,901 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 08/24/2009 13:24 -> 307,261,605
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,401.55.
A family of three owes $115,204.66. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 3,685,107,452.26.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,702,412,131.66.
The average for the last 31 days would be 2,615,237,546.76.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 166 reports in 241 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.07B$ per report, 4.90B$/day so far.
There were 241 reports in 353 days of FY2009 averaging 7.40B$ per report, 5.05B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,220 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.5 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/18/2009 11,807,667,118,297.67 BHO (UP 1,180,790,069,384.59 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,782,942,221,385.20 so far this fiscal year, broken down below:
Borrowed in FY2009: 0,602,152,152,000.59 in part from time during Bush reign.
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,180,790,069,384.59 in part since Obama takes over.


LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/27/2009 +008,131,449,864.04 ------------*********
08/28/2009 +000,123,059,531.85 ------------********
09/01/2009 +087,210,147,628.98 ------------********** Tue
09/02/2009 +000,313,556,741.81 ------------********
09/03/2009 -005,471,580,596.27 --
09/04/2009 +000,000,664,126.38 ------------*****
09/08/2009 -000,191,031,319.46 --- Tue
09/09/2009 +000,137,837,081.44 ------------********
09/10/2009 +012,326,876,265.82 ------------**********
09/11/2009 +000,017,033,887.43 ------------*******
09/14/2009 -000,193,915,837.32 --- Mon
09/15/2009 +034,695,222,864.03 ------------**********
09/16/2009 +000,121,771,969.62 ------------********
09/17/2009 -017,941,949,432.55 -
09/18/2009 -000,312,998,363.37 ---

118,966,144,412.43 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4069876&mesg_id=4069931

[Festivito]

46. Debt: 09/21/2009 11,811,086,447,487.95 (UP 3,419,329,190.28) (Down a bit, and up a bit.)

(Debt down nearly one-third billion, FICA rises nearly three-and-three-quarters billion.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,504,401,248,855.73 + 4,306,685,198,632.22
DOWN 319,092,626.95 + UP 3,738,421,817.23

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.76, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,504,821 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 08/24/2009 13:24 -> 307,261,605
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,409.44.
A family of three owes $115,228.31. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 4,591,412,747.45.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,060,941,831.63.
The average for the last 31 days would be 2,962,201,772.55.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 167 reports in 244 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.05B$ per report, 4.85B$/day so far.
There were 242 reports in 356 days of FY2009 averaging 7.38B$ per report, 5.02B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,217 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.5 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
09/21/2009 11,811,086,447,487.95 BHO (UP 1,184,209,398,574.87 so far since Obama took office.)

Fiscal Year ends: Sep 30
Borrowed in FY1993: (Maybe later.)
Borrowed in FY1994: 281,261,026,873.94
Borrowed in FY1995: 281,232,990,696.07
Borrowed in FY1996: 250,828,038,426.34
Borrowed in FY1997: 188,335,072,261.61
Borrowed in FY1998: 113,046,997,500.28
Borrowed in FY1999: 130,077,892,735.81
Borrowed in FY2000: _17,907,308,253.43 Bill alone
Borrowed in FY2001: 133,285,202,313.20 Bill and George
Borrowed in FY2002: 420,772,553,397.10 All George
Borrowed in FY2003: 554,995,097,146.46
Borrowed in FY2004: 595,821,633,586.70
Borrowed in FY2005: 553,656,965,393.18
Borrowed in FY2006: 574,264,237,491.73
Borrowed in FY2007: 500,679,473,047.25
Borrowed in FY2008: 1,017,071,524,650.01
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,786,361,550,575.50 so far this fiscal year, broken down below:
Borrowed in FY2009: 0,602,152,152,000.59 in part from time during Bush reign.
Borrowed in FY2009: 1,184,209,398,574.87 in part since Obama takes over.


LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
08/28/2009 +000,123,059,531.85 ------------********
09/01/2009 +087,210,147,628.98 ------------********** Tue
09/02/2009 +000,313,556,741.81 ------------********
09/03/2009 -005,471,580,596.27 --
09/04/2009 +000,000,664,126.38 ------------*****
09/08/2009 -000,191,031,319.46 --- Tue
09/09/2009 +000,137,837,081.44 ------------********
09/10/2009 +012,326,876,265.82 ------------**********
09/11/2009 +000,017,033,887.43 ------------*******
09/14/2009 -000,193,915,837.32 --- Mon
09/15/2009 +034,695,222,864.03 ------------**********
09/16/2009 +000,121,771,969.62 ------------********
09/17/2009 -017,941,949,432.55 -
09/18/2009 -000,312,998,363.37 ---
09/21/2009 -000,319,092,626.95 --- Mon

110,515,601,921.44 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4071184&mesg_id=4071224

[ozymandius]

23. Massachusetts leads health coverage - Census (Texas is worst with least covered)

http://money.cnn.com/2009/09/21/news/economy/census_health_insurance/index.htm?postversion=2009092118

Using data from 2008, the survey from the Census Bureau showed that at 4.1%, Massachusetts had the lowest level of uninsured people of all 50 states and Washington D.C., while Texas had the highest with 24.1%.

.....

The most covered

Out of a population of 6.4 million people Massachusetts, 263,000 were uninsured, according to the Census Bureau. The state's low rate reflects in large part its mandate requiring most residents to purchase health coverage. The insurance must cover prescription drugs, emergency room visits, hospital services, mental health services and unlimited sick visits.

.....

The least covered

Texas is the second-most populous state in the U.S., with 23.8 million residents, meaning that more than 5.7 million Texans are uninsured, according to the bureau's data.

Cannon said the large levels of the Texas' uninsured could reflect the large number of illegal immigrants in the state, which shares a border with Mexico. Joanna Turner, a statistician with the Census Bureau, said the bureau does not ask participants about their legal status, so those numbers are hard to pin down.

.....

Florida, which has a large elderly population, also had a high percentage of uninsured, at 20.8%. Bernstein said this is because Florida is a "low wage state" where insurance is unavailable to many workers.

[Demeter]

28. The Omens Are Not Good

Looks like we've slipped into the next stage of Depression 2.0 this week.

I cannot fathom WHY B of A is dragging its feet like that. they did wrong, they know it, we know it, they can hang Paulson out to dry, so what's the big deal?

Is Paulson a made member of the BFEE, and if so, does that throw any weight any more?

Or if he's a made member of Golden Sacks, does that throw any weight any more? Maybe he could take Geithner and Summers down with him. It's all good, as far as I'm concerned. No more Peter Principle.

[Po_d Mainiac]

35. Or Lewis doesn't care to share his bed

With part of a horse. :scared:

[DemReadingDU]

42. They don't want to admit they did anything wrong

They want to avoid going to jail

[Roland99]

29. Big Dog on CNBC touting a public option

Made some good points but went on too much on meaningless status. Then went into a little anecdote about him and Newt and partisan politics.

Ended with pushing for the Clinton Global Initiative and how this country can have a great economic boom by focusing on fighting climate change and creating new jobs (presumably in alternative fuels industry and energy-saving methods)

[Roland99]

30. Now it's Giuliani trying to convince people to invest more in the markets

Pitching services that go and verify fund managers' records, verify businesses exist, etc. All thru private funding from profits/fees from funds.

[Demeter]

32. I Swear, Hospital Living Has Ruined the Kid

She expects room service punctuality. I have to go fix breakfast.

[UpInArms]

33. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.135 Change -0.608 (-0.78%)

Currency Markets to Trade with Risk Sentiment on Thin Economic Calendar

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/Currency_Markets_to_Trade_with_1253592586151.html

Currency markets are likely to continue looking to risk sentiment to drive price action with another thin economic calendar on tap in European trading hours. Switzerland's Trade Balance report and the SECO economic forecast update are set for release.

Key Overnight Developments

• NZ Current Account Surprises With Surplus in Q2 as Imports Fall
• US Dollar Sold in Overnight Trading as Stocks Gain on Asian Exchanges

Critical Levels



The Euro added 0.3% against the US Dollar to retake the 1.47 level in overnight trading. The British Pound followed suit, testing as high as 1.6258. We continue to hold a short GBPUSD position, initially targeting 1.6112.

Asia Session Highlights



New Zealand’s Current Account Balance unexpectedly showed a surplus of NZ$124 million in the second quarter, marking the first quarterly surplus since the first three months of 2003. Economists were forecasting a –NZ$1.98 billion result ahead of the release. In annual terms, the deficit narrowed to –NZ$10.6 billion or 5.9% of GDP, the smallest share of total output in nearly 5 years. Details behind the headline figure look far from encouraging however: imports fell -19.6% from a year earlier, outpacing a -3.5% decline in exports and painting a picture of stagnant consumer demand in the island nation. The deficit is likely to continue to narrow in the months ahead as rising unemployment weighs on spending. Indeed, the central bank expects the external gap will narrow to 5.5% of GDP while a survey of economists polled by Bloomberg predicts the jobless rate will rise to a decade high of 6.8% by the end of this year. Traders welcomed the announcement, sending the New Zealand Dollar 90 pips higher against its US counterpart in the hour following the data release as traders expressed relief that the central bank may not be pushed to lower interest rates to cheapen the currency and thereby offer exporters a boost to help narrow the current account shortfall, which has been on the forefront of policymakers’ concerns since it led to a downgrade of the New Zealand’s credit outlook by the Fitch ratings agency. An index of traders’ one-year RBNZ rate hike expectations compiled by Credit Suisse jumped 8 basis points to a record high after the figures crossed the wires.

...more...

Euro Breaks 1.4800, British Pound Halts Three-Day Slide

http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/Euro_Breaks_1_4800__British_Pound_1253617657504.html

The euro retraced the two-day decline and surged to a fresh yearly high of 1.4820against the greenback, and the single-currency may continue to push higher throughout the trading session as investors increase their appetite for risk. However, as the pair remains overbought (RSI @ 72), the EUR/USD looks to be in the process of carving out a top following the rally from 1.4200 earlier this month, and the pair is poised to fall back this week and is likely to test the recent lows for short-term support.

At the same time, European Central Bank council member Axel Weber defended the recent appreciation in the exchange rate, stating that “the behavior of the foreign-exchange market is not out of line” following the economic developments in the Euro-Zone, and reiterated that the current policy remains “appropriate” as the central bank maintain its one and only mandate to ensure price stability. At the same time, Mr. Weber held a hawkish outlook for long-term inflation and saw a risk for upward price pressures to reemerge “particularly if the loose monetary policy were to stay in place for too long,” and the comments suggests that the ECB could be one of the first central banks to implement an exit strategy as the Governing Council maintains a 2% target for inflation. As the economic outlook improves, market participants speculate the central bank to tighten policy over the next 12-months, and expectations for a rate hike next year may continue to drive the euro higher throughout the second-half of the year.

The British pound halted the three-day slide against the U.S. dollar and retraced the previous day’s decline to hold the broad range from August, and the GBP/USD may continue to trend sideways over the coming months as investors weigh the outlook for future policy. The pound-dollar rallied to a high of 1.6351 during the European session as investors increased their appetite for higher yielding assets, and the rise in global equities should lead the pair higher going into the U.S. trade as market sentiment improves. Meanwhile, Reuters cited an unidentified diplomat and said that Bank of England Governor Mervyn King could possibly take a seat on the European Systemic Risk Board as a deputy to ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, which aims to monitor the risks for the European Union’s banking system, and the report went onto say that board may receive strong backing from the U.K. if members approve Mr. King’s appointment.

The greenback across the board and slipped to a fresh yearly low against the euro, Swiss franc, and New Zealand dollar during the overnight trade, and the reserve currency may continue to lose ground going into the North American trade as the futures market foreshadows a higher open for U.S. equities. Nevertheless, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing index is expected to rise to 16 in September after holding at 14 during the past two-months, while the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s house price index is forecasted to increase 0.5% for the second month in July as potential home buyers take advantage of low rates and foreclosed homes. As the economic docket is expected to reinforce an enhanced outlook for the world’s largest economy, the U.S. dollar may regain its footing going into the U.S. trade as growth prospects improve.




...more...

[UpInArms]

34. Sun Micro losing $100 million a month, Ellison says

http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSTRE58L0J720090922?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

SAN JOSE, CALIFORNIA (Reuters) - Oracle Corp (ORCL.O) Chief Executive Larry Ellison said Sun Microsystems Inc (JAVA.O) is losing about $100 million a month as European regulators delay approving his company's $7 billion purchase of the struggling hardware maker.

"The longer this takes, the more money Sun is going to lose," Ellison said on Monday evening during a dinner at one of Silicon Valley's most prominent speaker's forums, the Churchill Club.

Sun's revenue has tumbled since April when Oracle agreed to buy the world's No. 4 computer server maker in April as rivals IBM (IBM.N) and Hewlett-Packard Co (HPQ.N) have poached customers amid uncertainty about its future.

Oracle has pledged to boost investment on development of Sun's products, but the hardware company has cut spending prior to the deal's closing as sales have plunged. Last month it reported a quarterly loss of $147 million.

Ellison, the world's fourth-richest man according to Forbes, said he expects the deal will eventually be cleared by European regulators as it was in the United States, without any conditions.

...more...

Billionaire Larry Ellison Compensation Drops to $84.5 million

package for fiscal 2009 amounting to $84.5 million, down $100,000 from the previous year. But you don't need to feel sorry for him having a drop in pay, since he also generated $124.2 million by exercising 10 million stock options during the fiscal year.

[FarCenter]

44. The only reason to buy a SPARC server is if you have a licensed app that only runs on it

Two years ago, CTOs of major firms were taking SPARC servers off their standard approved hardware list.

[DoBotherMe]

45. K&R n/t

[Demeter]

49. Screamingly Funny Parodies From the Capital Steps

http://www.capsteps.com/sounds/putin-georgia.rm

http://www.capsteps.com/sounds/obama-secretkenyanman.rm

http://www.capsteps.com/sounds/obama-gates-crowley.rm

http://www.capsteps.com/sounds/daschle-hang2009.rm

http://www.capsteps.com/sounds/twitter.rm