STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday October 6

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday October 6, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Under Indictment = 2
Financial Sector Officials In Prison = 6

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON October 5, 2009

Dow... 9,599.75 +112.08 (+1.18%)
Nasdaq... 2,068.15 +20.04 (+0.98%)
S&P 500... 1,040.46 +15.25 (+1.49%)
Gold future... 1,018 +13.50 (+1.34%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.22 +0.00 (+0.12%)
30-Year Bond 4.01 +0.02 (+0.45%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

History Rhymes and Old Habits Die Hard
BY ROB KIRBY

Over the past couple weeks some interesting historical documents relating to the gold market have surfaced. First up is Zero Hedge’s, Exclusive Smoking Gun: The Fed On Gold Manipulation which features an official document uncovered by researcher/historian Geoffrey Batt - a June 3, 1975 memorandum from Fed Chairman Arthur Burns to President Gerald Ford.

Writes Zero Hedge,

“(the memorandum was sent) to Gerald Ford, which among others CC:ed Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and future Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, discussing gold, and specifically its fair value, a topic whose prominence, despite former president Nixon's actions, had only managed to grow in the four short years since the abandonment of the gold standard in 1971. In a nutshell Burns' entire argument revolves around the equivalency of gold and money, and furthermore points out that if the Fed does not control this core relationship, it would "easily frustrate our efforts to control world liquidity" but also "dangerously prejudge the shape of the future monetary system." Furthermore, the memo goes on to highlight the extensive level of gold price manipulation by central banks even after the gold standard has been formally abolished.”

Quoting from pg. 4 of the Burns memorandum,

...a large measure of freedom for governments to trade in gold a market-related price may easily frustrate efforts to control world liquidity. For example, such freedom would provide an incentive for governments to revalue their official gold holdings at a market-related price. (France has already done so.)This in turn could result in the addition of up to $150 billion to the nominal value of countries’ reserves. Liquidity creation of such extraordinary magnitude would seriously endanger, perhaps even frustrate, our efforts and those of other prudent nations to get inflation under reasonable control. This is a matter of great concern to Mr. Witteveen, the head of the I.M.F., and to many other financiers.

Funny, ehh, the Fed worried about the inflationary impact of a nominal increase in reserves?

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[Demeter]

19. As Nice As It Is To Know What Was Done in the Past

I'd really like to know what's going on now. Odds are, more of the same, hence the need for historical data.

[ozymandius]

2. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

3. Oil above $71 as global stocks gain

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $71 a barrel Tuesday in Asia as a jump in global stock markets boosted investor confidence.

Benchmark crude for November delivery was up 60 cents at $71.01 by late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract gained 46 cents to settle at $70.41 Monday.
.....

Last week, poor jobs and manufacturing data undermined optimism, but on Monday the Institute for Supply Management said its service index showed that sector grew in September for the first time since August of last year.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

38. Stock prices have nothing to do with the demand for oil

Irrational exuberance, Part 13.

[ozymandius]

4. As Job Loss Rises, Obama Aides Act to Fix Safety Net

WASHINGTON — With unemployment expected to rise well into next year even as the economy slowly recovers, the Obama administration and Democratic leaders in Congress are discussing extending several safety net programs as well as proposing new tax incentives for businesses to renew hiring.

.....
President Obama’s economic team discussed a wide range of ideas at a meeting on Monday, following his Saturday radio address in which he said it would “explore additional options to promote job creation.” But officials emphasized that a decision was still far off and that in any event the effort would not add up to a second economic stimulus package, only an extension of the first.

.....
The search for further remedies is part of a two-track effort in the White House and Congress. Democrats are also considering plans to continue through 2010 the extra unemployment assistance and health benefits available to people who are out of work for long periods. Also likely to be retained, some officials say, is a popular $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers that was included in the $787 billion stimulus law and has helped rouse a housing market that nonetheless remains shaky.

The unemployment and health benefits are otherwise due to expire at the end of this year, and the homebuyer’s credit at the end of November. Extending the unemployment and health benefits alone through next year could cost up to $100 billion. Additional measures would raise the price at a time when the White House and Congress are confronting growing pressure to avoid adding to already high deficits.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/06/us/politics/06jobless.html

[Demeter]

39. Is Obama THAT Clueless?

Yup. So's his team: GS and Assoc.



As a further thought, I think they are trying to run a cargo cult, all by themselves. Waiting for the magic of the Market to rescue their asse(t)s.

Ain't gonna happen.

[ozymandius]

5. Bremmer, Roubini: Fed has to implement exit strategy

(Reuters) – The U.S. Federal Reserve must pre-emptively state it will not buy more Treasury bills in order to implement a cohesive exit strategy from the massive monetary bailouts it has provided, economic consultants Ian Bremmer and Nouriel Roubini wrote in an opinion column on the Wall Street Journal's website.

Bremmer and Roubini wrote that if the stimulus packages are withdrawn too soon, there is a risk of relapsing into deflation, while if left too late, the economy could succumb to stagflation.

.....
Bremmer and Roubini said that major institutions should have much higher capital requirements, greater liquidity buffers, lower leverage and lower involvement in risky and illiquid investments if they are depository banks.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091006/bs_nm/us_federal_reserve_opinion

[Demeter]

20. Now You Know THAT'S Not Going to Happen Any Time Soon

If you want the world to buy Treasuries, you've got to pay some kind of interest. Greenspan broke the back of interest right after he took office. And this is the result: debt bubbles, devaluation, crisis, bankruptcy.

[spotbird]

25. What next? nt

[Demeter]

37. Use your PhD: Piled Higher and Deeper

That's what

[Festivito]

6. Debt: 10/02/2009 11,917,948,701,570.06 (DOWN 2,570,462,749.36) (Fri)

(Second day of the new Obama budget.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,506,060,217,428.15 + 4,411,888,484,141.91
UP 166,120,250.33 + DOWN 2,736,582,999.69

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,605,021 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,744.32.
A family of three owes $116,232.97. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 5,472,954,558.26.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,013,500,009.39.

There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 176 reports in 255 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.29B$ per report, 5.06B$/day so far.
There were 251 reports in 367 days of FY2009 averaging 7.54B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,206 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
10/02/2009 11,917,948,701,570.06 BHO (UP 1,291,071,652,656.98 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,008,119,698,058.30 ------------BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/14/2009 -000,193,915,837.32 --- Mon
09/15/2009 +034,695,222,864.03 ------------**********
09/16/2009 +000,121,771,969.62 ------------********
09/17/2009 -017,941,949,432.55 -
09/18/2009 -000,312,998,363.37 ---
09/21/2009 -000,319,092,626.95 --- Mon
09/22/2009 -000,005,688,069.16 -----
09/23/2009 -000,186,100,874.04 ---
09/24/2009 -043,516,809,626.65 -
09/25/2009 -000,256,514,563.16 ---
09/28/2009 -000,773,265,151.59 --- Mon
09/29/2009 +000,473,982,417.68 ------------********
09/30/2009 +091,724,705,747.96 ------------**********
10/01/2009 -045,967,461,558.95 -
10/02/2009 +000,166,120,250.33 ------------********

17,708,007,145.88 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4090263&mesg_id=4090357

[Festivito]

52. Debt: 10/05/2009 11,919,879,121,739.54 (UP 1,930,420,169.48) (Mon)

(Third day of the new Obama budget. Whew. Computer trouble would not let me access the Reply button. Weird.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,506,024,509,561.69 + 4,413,854,612,177.85
DOWN 35,707,866.46 + UP 1,966,128,035.94

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.75, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain a another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,630,941 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 09/27/2009 07:13 -> 307,558,299
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,747.33.
A family of three owes $116,242.. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 6,421,471,180.12.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,495,029,826.08.
The average for the last 31 days would be 4,350,028,863.95.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 177 reports in 258 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.26B$ per report, 5.01B$/day so far.
There were 252 reports in 370 days of FY2009 averaging 7.52B$ per report, 5.12B$/day.

PROJECTION:
There are 1,203 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.1T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
10/05/2009 11,919,879,121,739.54 BHO (UP 1,293,002,072,826.46 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,010,050,118,227.80 ------------BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
09/15/2009 +034,695,222,864.03 ------------**********
09/16/2009 +000,121,771,969.62 ------------********
09/17/2009 -017,941,949,432.55 -
09/18/2009 -000,312,998,363.37 ---
09/21/2009 -000,319,092,626.95 --- Mon
09/22/2009 -000,005,688,069.16 -----
09/23/2009 -000,186,100,874.04 ---
09/24/2009 -043,516,809,626.65 -
09/25/2009 -000,256,514,563.16 ---
09/28/2009 -000,773,265,151.59 --- Mon
09/29/2009 +000,473,982,417.68 ------------********
09/30/2009 +091,724,705,747.96 ------------**********
10/01/2009 -045,967,461,558.95 -
10/02/2009 +000,166,120,250.33 ------------********
10/05/2009 -000,035,707,866.46 ---- Mon

17,866,215,116.74 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4091806&mesg_id=4091819
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4091806&mesg_id=4091819

[ozymandius]

7. World markets buoyed by recovery hopes

LONDON – World stock markets rose Tuesday after better than expected U.S. data and a surprise interest rate hike from Australia's central bank helped reassure investors that the global economic recovery was continuing.

.....
In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was up 40.81 points, or 0.8 percent, at 5,065.14 while Germany's DAX rose 40.88 points, or 0.7 percent, to 5,549.73. The CAC-40 in France was 19.94 points,or 0.5 percent, higher at 3,694.95.

Earlier in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average rose 17.31, or 0.2 percent, to 9,691.80 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained 382.46, or 1.9 percent, to 20,811.53. South Korea's Kospi was down 0.5 percent at 1,598.44. The Nikkei's gains though were tempered by the continuing strength of the yen against the dollar, which is weighing on exports.

.....
Elsewhere in Asia, Singapore's market jumped 1.3 percent and Indonesia's index was up 2 percent. China's markets are closed for a weeklong holiday and reopen Friday.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20091006/ap_on_bi_ge/world_markets

[TheWatcher]

9. Have we ever lived in a More Orwellian time than we do right now?

"Hopes." Anytime you see that word in a mainstream economic article, stop reading. Period.

I guess the March to 10,000 will continue this week.

When you talk to people on the street, at least where i live, it's almost like in their minds, nothing ever happened.

No Crisis exists or ever did.

Even those I have talked to who are CLEARLY hurting and affected by The Economy think everything is back to normal.

My God, What Planet IS this, ozy?

Seriously.

[ozymandius]

10. That "hope" is myopic, centered on survival.

Like you - I see the word "hope" in an article and shake my head. "Hope" is your tool when you are in the closed end of a box canyon while a bison stampede heads your way.

But look at the industry that is the best capitalized in terms of stock, the most protected by the government, and most favored among bond holders. In sum: banks are protected and thus represent safety.

In purely academic sense: the real economy will limp along under its own momentum for awhile after its sustenance has either been severed or severely limited. How long could you function without a square meal, maybe living off scraps? Same idea.

Where I am, it is uncommon to encounter someone who believes that everything is back to normal. Sad to say, but, I have family members who though everything was back to normal in early 2008. They play heavily in stocks. Their kind of myopia allowed them to believe that banks weathered the sub-prime storm. One relative invested a sizable chunk of money in banks. Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers went belly-up four months after he "bought in" and he lost 90% of his investment.

So I continue to believe, as always: There's no helping some people. I see that as a teacher. Evidence abounds to support that inference outside the classroom.

[CatholicEdHead]

34. "Hope" to many unemployed is keeping them from full despair

Many do realize that things are in the tank all over and their past jobs are not coming back. Most of the hope I see is the hope in themselves to prevail despite the harsh conditions. This allows for some type of personal adjustment to keep putting one foot in front of another. There is still a pessimistic tone overall but that little bit of hope keeps it from going into a defeatist mentality.

Eventually something will rebound again, but as we see on a daily basis it will be much, much later than anything soon, too many harsh readjustments are being put off that need to be done on a global level. Noboday knows what the new normal will be when this is all done in coming years.

[Dr.Phool]

11. Reminds me of an old adage from when I was learning to fly.

Emergency procedures for a forced landing at night:

1) Establish Best Glide.
2) Attempt re-start
3) If re-start is unsuccessful, look for landing area.
4) Turn on landing light.
5) If you don't like what you see, turn landing light off.

[Po_d Mainiac]

13. People think the prop is for maintaining flight

.......WRONG.....It's just a big fan to keep the pilot cool.

Same with the markets...people just think the fans are turning. So they be cool. As the ramifications of a tanking dollar take hold, they'll look like deer out on the freeway.

[Dr.Phool]

23. The prop is to keep birds out of the engine.

Same with the market. To keep the bats in the belfry.

[Po_d Mainiac]

35. Have u ever seen what a windscreen looks like after a bird strike?

The markets shan't be pretty, if they resemble what my 172 looked like. A lot more blood in a raven, than u'd expect.

[DemReadingDU]

12. It's still the fake feel-good green shoots perception

My family and friends don't really get it either. Oh, they talk about other people losing jobs and houses. But that would never happen to them. They are so happy because the stock market is ramping towards 10,000.

I'm just a person who reads blogs, not a professional financial planner or economist, so my opinion means nothing to them. I stopped bringing up anything to do with the economy and corrupt banks. They will never see the bus when it hits them.

[AnneD]

29. Same here DemReading....

I just use the information to adjust my accounts. The only thing is they notice I seem to be doing better than they are these days-so I just keep my mouth shut any more.

[ozymandius]

8. Bloodbath Coming in the US Banking Sector

I read this and I think that perhaps Goldman Sachs is staking profits the old fashioned way: planting rumors that, upon reflection, seem counterintuitive to their interests. But Goldman Sachs being what it is also tells me that they are hedged with derivatives such that they will profit no matter which way the bet goes. - ozy

Link to article:

The stock market rallied today because of a slightly better than expected ISM Services number. Considering how much 'stimulus' the government has given to the FIRE sector it should be doing slightly better than the real economy.

Another reason the market rallied in New York today was a bullish call on the banking sector by a Goldman Sachs analyst.

Here is a somewhat different analysis of the situation by Chris Whalen of Institutional Risk Analytics. Chris believes that he sees strong evidence that "the fourth quarter in the banking industry is going to be a bloodbath."

---

Here is the link to Whalen's evidence:

Stocks rallied to start the week thanks to a better-than-expected ISM services sector report and a Goldman Sachs upgrade of big banks, including Wells Fargo, Comerica and Capital One.

But all is not right in either the economy or the banking sector, according to Christopher Whalen, managing director at Institutional Risk Analytics. In fact, Whalen says most observers are drawing the wrong economic conclusions from the stock market's robust rally.

.....
The shrinkage will continue into 2010, Whalen predicts, suggesting the banking sector hasn't yet seen the peak in loan losses. Institutional Risk Analytics forecasts the FDIC will ultimately need $300 billion to $400 billion to recoup losses to its bank insurance fund. (In other words, the $45 billion the FDIC sought to raise last week by asking banks to prepay fees is just a drop in the bucket.)

more at link...

[tclambert]

14. I thought Ford might be the big winner out of this recession. Goldman Sachs might win bigger.

GM and Chrysler still exist, though their market shares have decreased. Toyota, Honda, and Nissan still sell cars to those who don't care about "buying American."

Goldman Sachs, though, saw the competitor Lehman Brothers vanish. Plus, Goldman's "special friends" in Washington have given them more help than any company rightly deserves.

[tclambert]

15. I put "buying American" in quotes because my son says I'm too simple-minded when it comes

to buying American cars. He said what with global parts suppliers and transplant assembly factories, the car with the most American content might well be a Toyota Corolla. He didn't sound certain on that, though. It is a complicated question. An automobile has so many thousands of parts.

[boomerbust]

16. I would still bet on Ford

Long term. All electric Fusion coming in 2011. I think Ford is thinking ahead and will be positioned properly for green expansion.

[Demeter]

21. The Only Way Goldman Profits Is By Robbing the Treasury

They haven't made an honest cent in a decade, maybe more. And as long as Timmy and Barack let them, they will continue to do so.

[UpInArms]

17. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 76.343 Change -0.299 (-0.38%)

I'm only going to post one article today - with a hattip to TwixVoy and this DU thread http://upload.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4091485&mesg_id=4091485

The demise of the dollar

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dollar-1798175.html

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.

The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain the sudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinary transition from dollar markets within nine years.

The Americans, who are aware the meetings have taken place – although they have not discovered the details – are sure to fight this international cabal which will include hitherto loyal allies Japan and the Gulf Arabs. Against the background to these currency meetings, Sun Bigan, China's former special envoy to the Middle East, has warned there is a risk of deepening divisions between China and the US over influence and oil in the Middle East. "Bilateral quarrels and clashes are unavoidable," he told the Asia and Africa Review. "We cannot lower vigilance against hostility in the Middle East over energy interests and security."

This sounds like a dangerous prediction of a future economic war between the US and China over Middle East oil – yet again turning the region's conflicts into a battle for great power supremacy. China uses more oil incrementally than the US because its growth is less energy efficient. The transitional currency in the move away from dollars, according to Chinese banking sources, may well be gold. An indication of the huge amounts involved can be gained from the wealth of Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar who together hold an estimated $2.1 trillion in dollar reserves.

The decline of American economic power linked to the current global recession was implicitly acknowledged by the World Bank president Robert Zoellick. "One of the legacies of this crisis may be a recognition of changed economic power relations," he said in Istanbul ahead of meetings this week of the IMF and World Bank. But it is China's extraordinary new financial power – along with past anger among oil-producing and oil-consuming nations at America's power to interfere in the international financial system – which has prompted the latest discussions involving the Gulf states.

...more...

Everyone can write letters of thanks to the GOP National offices and to Grover Northquist for attaining such a nadir with our country - they have singlemindedly destroyed almost everything of value and have brought this to every household in our country - including their own. I do so hope that the neighborhood improves when they move away to seek greener pastures.

[bertman]

18. Lots of denials from some of the alleged players. What's up with that? Trying to cushion

the blow?

[Dr.Phool]

22. Looks like gold just broke it's record high.

Old record $1,032.

Right now, $1,033.

[skoalyman]

24. $1035 and climbing so bring us to our song of the day

www.youtube.com/watch?v=6MPTbSJH0lE :hide:

[AnneD]

27. Skoaly....

I can't get youtube at work...what is our tune? I am guessing 'Theme from Goldfinger' is it by Shirley Bassey?

[Dr.Phool]

28. It's the Final Countdown, from Armageddon.

In case Skoaly doesn't pop back in soon.

And I'm leaving now too.

:hi:

[AnneD]

31. Thanks....

We'll hold down the fort Doc.

[skoalyman]

43. ops sorry doc got caught up reading in the science section of DU

yup you guessed it :D

[AnneD]

26. Morning Marketeers.......

:donut: It's football time in Texas. Most Homecoming Games are being played in the next few weeks. I started channeling Jimmy the Greek last night, either that or I haven't worked off all that ouzo I drank at the Greek festival.....Anyway he gave me an idea for the next game.

As you know, the FDIC is bank closures are up to 96. Our question is ......When Will We Hit Number 100. I'll give you a clue-it will probably be on a Friday and a big pizza delivery will be involved. So get your calendars out boys and girls. Will we be eating turkey, will we get an extra trick this Halloween, or will we get that extra lump of coal we will need to see us through this winter. Post your guess.

The only difference now is you can only have two guesses and no changes.

What will the winner get....A virtual pizza of your choice: the Bernanke Bologna Bargain, the Geithner Gorgonzola Goliath, the Summer's Sausage Special, the Obama Oahu Pipe Line Pork and Pineapple Special, the 911 Health Care Special (empty box only, no substitutions), the Warren Wrap, or enjoy our wonderful Buffet Buffet.

So place those bets and watch your spreads. I will post them as soon as I can and within the next day. If you have a special pizza that you want, be sure to post that too. I am cranking up the fire and will be happy to help you roast your own pizza.......Let's all play FDIC FLAMEOUT.

Happy Hunting and watch out for the bears.

[Dr.Phool]

30. I'll probably wind up with a Tombstone!

[Demeter]

40. Probably This Weekend, AnneD

They think nothing of knocking off half a dozen at a time, if the banks are small.

[AnneD]

41. 100 is a nice round number......

we can bump the number up, but it has been 2-3 banks per weekend lately. This can be pretty limited, I am think next weekend at the earliest the week after at the latest. This contest is of short duration. The other is when the market breaks 10000.

[ozymandius]

62. Okay. I'll bite.

When Will We Hit Number 100? Friday, October 9th.

FDIC flameout? As in bankrupt? Never. FDIC has so many tricks up its sleeve, like being able to confiscate bank assets, it's really not funny.

[DemReadingDU]

32. Starting at 10am EST. History Channel: Crumbling of America

Repeats at 4pm

America's infrastructure is collapsing. Tens of thousands of bridges are structurally deficient or functionally obsolete. A third of the nation's highways are in poor or mediocre shape. Massively leaking water and sewage systems are creating health hazards and contaminating rivers and streams. Weakened and under-maintained levees and dams tower over communities and schools. And the power grid is increasingly maxed out, disrupting millions of lives and putting entire cities in the dark. The Crumbling of America explores these problems using expert interviews, on location shooting and computer generated animation to illustrate the kinds of infrastructure disasters that could be just around the bend.
http://www.history.com/shows.do?episodeId=452430&action=detail

[BelgianMadCow]

33. The demise of the dollar

In a graphic illustration of the new world order, Arab states have launched secret moves with China, Russia and France to stop using the US currency for oil trading

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.

The plans, confirmed to The Independent by both Gulf Arab and Chinese banking sources in Hong Kong, may help to explain the sudden rise in gold prices, but it also augurs an extraordinary transition from dollar markets within nine years.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dollar-1798175.html

this kind of talk has been going on for a while now. It's not going away either.
regards
bmc

[Dr.Phool]

47. Yammering Heads at CNBC say it ain't true!

How can you not believe in a reliable source like that?

:sarcasm: For most here, this ain't necessary.

[lib2DaBone]

36. Great Toon! ..lol OMG..gold up..Oil up... Dollar near 76...oh shit..

Read today where Australia and a few other countries will be forced to raise rates on their bonds.

The Fed will have to follow if they want ANYONE to keep buying our debt. (Ice pick stabs into the heart of Economic recovery)

I think the Bovine fecal matter is about to strike the oscillating air-moving device.

[TalkingDog]

42. Mixed Message Advertising

The image is classic Great Depression. Put your money in a jar and bury it. Banks weren't safe and the economy was in a deflationary state.
The text implies an inflationary state.

Interesting......

Hi to all. I hope you are all tip top and having fun.

Edited for fast and loose fingers....

[nc4bo]

48. Is this a real ad?

Would love to know where/who is using it. As for the Why? part, I lurk on the SMW on a routine basis.

[TalkingDog]

56. Yes. I got in the mail today as an advert

For direct mail marketing. The flyer is recycled, so I can't give you the actual name.

[Algorem]

44. Chinese investors buy Richman building on E. 55th

http://www.cleveland.com/news/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/cuyahoga/1254818007112790.xml&coll=2
Tuesday, October 06, 2009

A group of Chinese investors has purchased a sprawling, vacant building on East 55th Street with hopes of landing multiple tenants, officials say.

Property records show that the investor group, 1600 E. 55th Street LLC, bought the former Richman Bros. building on Sept. 11...

They are floating a $40 million project that could house the North American operations of several high- and low-tech Chinese companies, said Tom Sudow, a vice president with Team NEO, the region's business-attraction group.

Attractive real estate prices and long-term plans to move Cleveland's downtown port north of the East 55th Street building piqued the interest of Chinese investors, Sudow said. With a port nearby, the massive building could be attractive to logistics companies...





China investor eyes Richman Bros. site redo
Seeing a recessionary bargain here, foreign group studies prospects for $40 million mixed-use project

http://www.crainscleveland.com/article/20091005/SUB1/310059971/1004&Profile=1004#


By STAN BULLARD

4:30 am, October 5, 2009

An investor group led by a construction materials supplier and property owner based in Fuzhou, Fujian, in southeast China, is the new owner of the massive Richman Bros. building at 1600 E. 55th St. in Cleveland.

The group is studying converting the 660,000-square-foot former office, clothing factory and warehouse, built in 1916, into a mixed-use complex with an estimated project cost of $40 million. The plan under study includes installing retail on the first floor of the complex and office space on the second. The rest would include a hotel or residential uses.

Interviewed through an interpreter, investor group leader Shaojun Dong said he decided to buy the property because of its proximity to University Circle's health care institutions and the development potential stemming from the Cleveland-Cuyahoga County Port Authority's plan to move Cleveland's port to a site at the north end of East 55th Street.

Like other investors new to the city, Mr. Dong took his cues for the area from the city of Cleveland's 2020 master plan. However, his interpreter said the group had the entire document translated into Chinese for their review...

[nc4bo]

45. I'd like to buy a building and some land in China....

Could I?

[amandabeech]

53. Laugh of the day! n/t

[Algorem]

63. kind of ironic or something-they bought the 'Rich man' building on 9-11.

[skoalyman]

46. Todays web site is brought to you buy our new land lords

http://multilingualbooks.com/rosetta-chinese.html
:shrug: :beer:

[Robbien]

49. One Third of Wall Street Expects Bigger Bonus in ‘09

Oct. 6 (Bloomberg) -- More than a third of Wall Street finance professionals surveyed expect their bonuses to increase for 2009, a year after the credit-market collapse that some regulators say was fueled by outsized pay packages, eFinancialCareers.com found.

About 36 percent of the 1,074 people who responded to the e-mailed poll said they are anticipating a bigger annual payout from their companies and 11 percent said it will jump by at least half, the job-search Web site said in a statement.

The Group of 20 leaders last month agreed to adopt compensation guidelines for banks and other financial companies that are designed to rein in risks by aligning bonuses and other compensation with long-term performance. U.S. lawmakers are also studying Wall Street pay after spending almost $400 billion bailing out finance companies.

About 83 percent of those polled expect to receive some kind of bonus this year, according to eFinancialCareers, a unit of Dice Holdings Inc. The company conducted the survey from Sept. 15 to Sept. 29.

About 52 percent of financial-services workers said their firms have changed bonus policies, with 60 percent saying current payouts have no impact on their risk-taking decisions. About 28 percent said new policies constrained risk and 12 percent said they are “emboldened” to take additional risk.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ajYal_FW0XWk


The way things are going with banks thumbing their noses at the WH, I expect these banksters' expectations are probably right.

[TheWatcher]

50. Propaganda Watch: Commodities surge drives stock market higher

Commodities surge drives stock market higher

Stocks rise as investors continue rally into second day; Weak dollar fans commodities

NEW YORK (AP) -- Investors extended stocks' big gains into a second day on signs that the global economy is recovering and as a weak dollar pushed up commodity prices.

The Dow Jones industrial average rose 90 points, bringing its two-day advance to about 200, and the major indexes were all up about a percent.

Investors' latest show of confidence came as Australia became the first major country to raise interest rates. The move signals that policymakers see the country's economy as strong enough to withstand higher borrowing costs. That touched off hopes that other economies are strengthening.

Australia's decision also dented demand for the U.S. dollar, which, in turn, raised commodity prices. Energy and materials stocks jumped as oil rose and gold reached a record high.

The upbeat tone among investors is a departure from (reality) recent weeks when disappointing reports on unemployment, manufacturing and consumer sentiment gave stocks their first back-to-back weekly drops since July. Investors seem inclined right now to grab hold of any good news they hear, and their shifting sentiment has led to some mild volatility including the surge upward this week.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Commodities-surge-drives-apf-2194634110.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

You simply cannot Make This Shit UP.

So the devaluing and destruction of the Dollar and the Rising Prices in GOLD and other commodities (Remember, Rising Oil Prices mean that everything is great too) means that The Economy Is WONDERFUL.

They Really DO Think Americans Are That STUPID.

And I hate to say it, for the most part, they are right in a sense.

Because most of the country seems to cling to an almost psychotic belief that this is true.

But to be fair, they kind of DO let you know the Joke Is on You by mixing in the reality with the Bullshit:

"recent weeks when disappointing reports on unemployment, manufacturing and consumer sentiment gave stocks their first back-to-back weekly drops since July."

THAT'S The Reality.

The rest is fantasy.

[TheWatcher]

51. THIS Is The Only Chart That Matters Today

?s=NYBOT_DX&t=f&w=15&a=50&v=d12

I don't know why all these countries are holding "Secret Meetings".

What's going on here really isn't much of a Secret.

At least outside of the US Borders.

[Dr.Phool]

54. Yes, everything is wonderful. Just wonderful.

Probably only 600,000 filed for unemployment (new claims) last week. More foreclosures. Commercial Real Estate ready to tank.

But, oil is up! We're saved! Break out the bubbly!

Yes, people in this country realy, really are that stoopid. Don't believe me? Venture into GD and GD-P for about half an hour.

[AnneD]

55. Reminds me of the classic...

Hey, you....out of the gene pool. I try not to wade in the shallow end Doc.

[skoalyman]

58. what and epic day golds at what $1040.+ and the dollars at

76.- and the expert economist on wall street didn't even flinch nope its just another day but today is really a sad day its going to be an even sadder future for our grand children...:hide:

[DemReadingDU]

59. the higher things rise - stock market, gold, commodities

The lower they fall. It's as if things are being setup for the deep plunge.
:(

[nc4bo]

60. Not to butt into your conversation but I've been having these very same dark thoughts

and makes alot more sense than this awesome "Jobless Recovery" nonsense.

Pump it up to cushion the fall.

[DemReadingDU]

57. Gas jumped 20 cents

:wtf:

[Joe Chi Minh]

61. Saw this gem in tonight's Edinburgh Evening News: "I have fallen on

hard times. I am having to pay 20 million to a woman who I believe is the special love-child of Bernie Madoff and Heather Mills."

- Monty Python founder John Cleese on his divorce settlement problems.

[Algorem]

64. He didn't expect the Spanish Inquisition.

[TheWatcher]

65. NOBODY Expects The Spanish Inquisition!!!!!!!!!!!11111