STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday November 16

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Monday November 16, 2009

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 1
Name(s): David Safavian

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON November 13, 2009

Dow... 10,270.47 +73.00 (+0.71%)
Nasdaq... 2,167.88 +18.86 (+0.88%)
S&P 500... 1,093.48 +6.24 (+0.57%)
Gold future... 1,117 +10.20 (+0.92%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.42 -0.02 (-0.67%)
30-Year Bond 4.35 0.00 (0.00%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:
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Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
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    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666

Handy Links - Government Issues:
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Handy Links - Videos:
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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Market Observation

Dear Prudence, Won't You Come Out to Play?
BY BRIAN PRETTI

For years now, I have been focused on the macro theme of the credit cycle in all its wonderful glory quite intently. For those reading the discussions over the years, you’d probably characterize it as focused “to a fault.” Again and again during the current decade I asked, is it a business cycle or a credit cycle? Of course after the events of the last few years, it sure seems that question has been answered in spades. At the moment, this little credit cycle obsession is still the key focal point for what may lie ahead in terms of real economy and financial market outcomes. In this discussion let’s have a brief look at components of credit cycle character that as of today simply have no precedent over the last six decades of recorded Fed data. After looking at these data points, I suggest you ask yourself, should we really be expecting a “typical” economic recovery? Secondly, I want to briefly have a look at historical patterns of consumption in prior recessionary cycles and what experience of the moment may be telling us relative to behavioral patterns of the past. Let’s get right to it.

When it comes to the macro credit and conjoined economic cycle, an important item to keep in mind is that historically, US economic recoveries of the last half-century have had similar “fingerprints.” Those being pent up demand for auto’s, housing and accelerating credit usage by the private sector. Every single one. They all look the same. But what we are seeing at the current time that is completely different than anything seen over the last six decades is net private sector credit contraction. The following chart could not be more clear on the issue. Remember, the private sector is made up of households and corporations (including the financial sector).
.....

Let’s step out of the Fed numbers for just a second and have a little walk down memory lane. Memory lane of personal consumption expenditures. This is the natural counterpart to what we see playing out in the FOF numbers. If households are paying debt down, then something has to be given up for that balance sheet reconciliation decision. And the give up is consumption. Although you may not realize this, and this is clearly one of the key reasons why the long tenured Street truism suggests no one bet against the US consumer, personal consumption in nominal dollars has actually increased during each and every recession of the last six decades (at least). Each and every recession until the present, that is. The following table documents the increase in nominal personal consumption expenditures during each recession since 1960. Of course in the table we are assuming the current recession ended 6/09, given the perceptually positive 3Q GDP number.
.....

Of course we also need to remember that ours has been the longest official recessionary period on record since the Depression. So everything you see in the tables above for prior cycles happened over a much more compressed space of time. In other words, we have had much more time in the current cycle for personal consumption to pick up, but it has not. Lastly, it’s also important perspective to remember that in our current circumstances, households have been treated to some of the lowest interest rates of a lifetime and consumer product price weakness has been pronounced. Yet still zip in terms of consumption gains 19 months into official recession territory.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[fasttense]

35. Very informative charts at link. Thanks for posting.

The banks are not lending to consumers because the consumer has NO more equity left to borrow against. They used it all up in the housing bubble.

The only way to get consumer spending up again is to increase wages and salary. This congress does NOT have the stomach for that. So, they are pumping up the cash flow to the top 1 percenters hoping, against hope, that trickle down "free" market economic theory is true.

[Garam_Masala]

68. Correct! Billions of TARP $$$ went straight to the top 0.1%

such as CEO's bonuses at Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street Banks
and Main Street banks too big to fail such as BOA & CITI.

That 0.1% is NOT a typo. It is better than the top 1%.
It is creme de la creme of American earners.

[PassingFair]

38. Who in their right mind would charge something at 20 to 30% APR?

People who don't owe will not be charging, and
people who DO owe will be declaring bankruptcy.

:cry:

I believe we are digging ourselves into
a depression.

[Demeter]

41. First Rule of Holes Applies Here

When you find yourself in a hole, stop digging!

Too bad the Powers that Be think rules don't apply to them.

[Ghost Dog]

53. The US eating and shitting on the Biosphere more slowly

through lower consumption, since its Congress cannot agree to more rational measures, is good news for all... except... there will be more and more "blowback".

(As you see, I'm feeling even more deeply fatalistically philosophical, after visiting Marrakech).

Inshallah. Ojalá.

/... http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2009/nov/15/copenhagen-climate-deal-obama

[ozymandius]

2. Today's Reports

08:30 Retail Sales Oct
Briefing.com 0.7%
Consensus 0.9%
Prior -1.5%

08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Oct
Briefing.com 0.1%
Consensus 0.4%
Prior 0.5%

08:30 Empire Manufacturing Nov
Briefing.com 20.5
Consensus 30.00
Prior 34.57

10:00 Business Inventories Sep
Briefing.com -1.0%
Consensus -0.7%
Prior -1.5%

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[UpInArms]

31. Oct. retail sales up 1.4% - Sept. retail sales revised to -2.3% vs. -1.5%

U.S. retail sales down 1.7% in past year
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Sept. retail sales revised to -2.3% vs. -1.5%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Oct. retail sales ex-autos up 0.2% vs. 0.3%
8:30 a.m. Today

U.S. Oct. retail sales up 1.4% vs. 1.0% expected
8:30 a.m. Today

[rfranklin]

39. Until the figures are revised downward again next month...

Geez, why does anybody believe these numbers?

[ozymandius]

3. Oil rises above $77 as traders eye dollar, demand

SINGAPORE – Oil prices rose above $77 a barrel Monday in Asia amid a weaker U.S. dollar and an improving global crude demand outlook for next year.
.....

Some analysts expect oil demand to grow next year, especially in emerging economies, as a global economic recovery strengthens. Bank of America Merrill Lynch raised its forecast for the average price of crude to $85 a barrel from $75.
.....

"The combination of tighter physical oil supply and demand fundamentals, loose monetary policy, and a weaker U.S. dollar are creating a growing risk for oil prices to spike above $100 a barrel as we head into 2011."
.....

In other Nymex trading, heating oil rose 2.11 cents to $1.99 a gallon. Gasoline for December delivery gained 2.57 cents to $1.94 a gallon. Natural gas for December delivery jumped 7.8 cents to $4.47 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

4. Japan extra stimulus likely, GDP fails to convince

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan's government inched toward agreeing new stimulus measures that could be worth $30 billion on Monday as economic growth is likely to slow next year due to sluggish personal spending and rising inventories.

Economists doubt whether that amount will be enough to push growth up significantly as the Democratic Party-led government will likely fund the stimulus with money cut from a budget compiled by the previous administration.

Japan's massive national debt means the Democrats don't have the leeway to spend much more.

The economy grew 1.2 percent in the third quarter, nearly double the forecast and the fastest pace in more than two years, but that was partly due to stimulus that the previous government enacted. The better-than-expected headline figure also failed to mask signs of weakness in private consumption and factory output.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091116/bs_nm/us_japan_economy

---

The more examination into 3Q results around the world, the same conclusion seems to apply. Without government support, numbers either would have been flat or negative again.

[ozymandius]

5. Fed's Hoenig says significant weakness in economy

ABU DHABI (Reuters) – A Federal Reserve official said on Monday that the U.S. economy still faced "significant weaknesses" and urged policymakers to allow large financial institutions to fail if needed.
.....

Data showed last week that U.S. consumer sentiment had soured in early November on grim job prospects while a larger-than-expected trade deficit had analysts scaling back estimates for third-quarter U.S. growth.

Turning to regulatory issues, Hoenig said that all financial institutions needed to be allowed to fail, no matter their size.
.....

U.S. regulatory agencies have been embarrassed by flaws in financial oversight that failed to prevent a financial crisis that has triggered a painful recession, cost millions of jobs, and required hundreds of billions of taxpayer bailout money for banks.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091116/bs_nm/us_usa_fed_hoenig

---

It's refreshing to see someone of the Federal Reserve talking some sense. Now I am curious as to what Hoenig's opinion would be towards action after a major institution fails. Breaking it apart? Or absorption into another supposedly "too big to fail" bank?

[Dr.Phool]

9. Allowed to fail? We're way beyond that.

Time to start executing some of them.

Their arrogance and self-entitlement have created a danger to society. Goldman employees even get first shot at H1N1 vaccine? Ahead of pregnant women and kids?

FRSP's for all!

[Demeter]

11. FRSP

I must be feeling mellow today. No rant in me.

There were some last minute postings (nearly midnight) to Weekend Economist that I think were very significant, so if you weren't there after me, you might want to see them.

I had stuck them in a bookmark file and forgotten about them....sorry!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x495892

I didn't spend as much time on Walt Disney productions as I thought I'd need and want to--I guess when the President's away, the bad news slows down. Hmmm....think there's a correlation? Or maybe things couldn't get any worse at the moment... Or did the Bidness people take a long Veteran's Day vacation? Lots of analysis and retrospective, though, to ponder.

Anyhow, we will revisit the Magical Kingdom next month, and continue the saga of the REAL Great Communicator!

[Dr.Phool]

23. I didn't get much of a chance to read it over the week-end.

But, I bookmarked it before I went to bed last night. I'll try to catch up today.

[ozymandius]

6. GM Said to Repay $6.7 Billion Sooner Than Required

Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Co., the largest U.S. automaker, will repay $6.7 billion of the $49.9 billion in aid it received from the federal government starting next month, more than five years sooner than required, a person familiar with the company’s plans said.

GM intends to make a payment of $1 billion a quarter, with the first installment Dec. 31, said the person, who requested not to be identified because the transaction hasn’t been announced publicly. The Treasury Department is unlikely to recover all of the aid it provided, a congressional oversight panel said in a report Sept. 9.

Detroit-based GM is working to overhaul its operations and return to a profit after filing for Chapter 11 protection June 1 in the wake of $88 billion in losses since 2004. The company is able to start repaying aid because it has a stronger financial position than anticipated, according to the person.

.....

GM isn’t obligated to make a payment until July 20, 2015, the person said. At $1 billion a quarter, the $6.7 billion would be repaid by the second quarter of 2011.

The carmaker plans to release third-quarter preliminary results later today. GM spokesman Greg Martin declined to comment on repayment plans.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aLIKZY_T2aF0

[ozymandius]

7. Geithner Bond Wise Men Bury Warning as Options Rise

Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- The options market shows investors are growing increasingly wary that U.S. debt sales may push yields higher even as inflation remains in check.

The cost to hedge against rising yields on Treasuries as measured by the so-called skew in options on interest-rate swaps is at a record high, according to Barclays Plc data. At more than 37 basis points, the measure is almost 40 times higher than the average before credit markets seized up in August 2007.
.....

The 13-member committee of bond dealers and investors that Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner depends on for advice, and includes officials of Pacific Investment Management Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., highlighted the surge on page 36 of a 67-page report on Nov. 3. On the same page, they showed inflation expectations are subdued based on gauges watched by the Federal Reserve. In their discussions, the group noted that a second year of government debt sales approaching $2 trillion may weigh on investors as the Fed stops buying notes and bonds.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=ap3nY9dDbEJE

---

Curious to me if it has registered with Geithner that those people who give him advice might have self-serving motives behind what they tell him.

[Demeter]

13. More Likely Orders Than Advice

Somehow Timmy doesn't strike me as the kind of guy let loose without a leash.

[ozymandius]

8. Ayn Rand: The Boring Bitch is Back

From The Big Picture:

There is a substantial take-down of pedantic bore Ayn Rand in GQ. They tease it thusly:

2009’s most influential author is a mirthless Russian-American who loves money, hates God, and swings a gigantic dick. She died in 1982, but her spawn soldier on. And the Great Recession is all their fault.

I love that because it is both funny and touches upon so many subtle truths; Here is a longer, funnier excerpt:

“This is because there are boys and girls among us who have never overcome the Randian infection. The Galt speech continues to ring in their ears for years like a maddening tinnitus, turning each of them into what next year’s Physicians’ Desk Reference will (undoubtedly) term an Ayn Rand Asshole (ARA). They constitute a relatively small percentage of Rand readers, these ARAs. But they make their reading count. Thanks to them, the Rand Experience is no longer limited to those who have read the books. It’s metastasized. You, me, all of us, we’re living it. Because it’s the ARA Army of antigovernment-antiregulation puritans who have spent the past three decades gleefully pulling the cooling rods out of the American economy. For a while, it got very big and very hot. Then it popped. And now the rest of us have to spend the next decade scaling the slippery slopes of the huge suppurative crater that was left behind.

Feeling fisted by the Invisible Hand of the Market lo these past fifteen months? Lost a job lately? Or half the value of your 401(k)? Or a home? All three? Been wondering whence the too-long-ascendant political and economic ideas and forces behind Greenspanism, John Thainism, blind Wall Street plunder, bankruptcy, credit-default swaps, Bernie Madoff, and the ensuing Cannibalism in the Streets? Then you, sir, need to give thanks to Ayn Rand Assholes everywhere—as well as the steely loins from which they sprang.”

Brilliant.

.
.
.
more at link for those who love to hate Rand's bankrupt drivel ...

[Demeter]

21. Ties In To WEE Discussion!

Excerpt from link post:

"Malcolm Gladwell is a guy who knows how to write compellingly readable stories. The takeaway in his book 'Outliers The Story of Success' is quite unRandian — it is that luck plays an enormous factor in out-sized success. That is a factor the Randians prefer to ignore."

[ret5hd]

32. Link to the WEE discussion?

[Demeter]

40. Here you go!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=103x495892#496034

[Demeter]

24. link to the original GQ source--Impressive!

http://www.gq.com/entertainment/books/200911/ayn-rand-dick-books-fountainhead?currentPage=6&printable=true

[Warpy]

45. Oh, that's a real scream!

I remember being dragged to an Objectivist meeting back in the mid 60s by a would be boyfriend who got unceremoniously dumped the very next day. There was a Wollensack tape recorder on a little doilied table playing Mistress's words, an altar at which the smoky, mostly young and mostly male crowd worshiped. It was bizarre. Finding myself in a deconsecrated temple swapping shots with a couple of top blues men a few years later made more sense.

I could almost buy the premise in The Fountainhead when I read it at 16. Unfortunately for Ayn, Atlas soon followed, and I finished that ridiculous tome in silly giggles as I envisioned a hungry, whiny, clingy toddler interrupting all those multipage harangues the driven, hard bitten characters were delivering to each other. Throw in a kid and the whole edifice crumbled.

Of course, I did appreciate all the sex with no funky Ortho-Glynol stink and no procreation, but that's all her Utopia had to recommend itself.

I suppose I'd been poisoned because I'd kicked and clawed my way through Marx first and found him more nourishing. I was pretty sure I was going to have to work for a living and knew if the workers went on strike, Rand's uberclass would wither and die because none of them knew how to do a damned thing to keep themselves alive.

However, I did witness the phenomenon described in the article, ordinary callow youth being transformed seemingly overnight into Roark and Galt, absolutely sure that the world would be blinded by their brilliance.

And I did have the sense to dump Roark/Galt the next day when I had calmed down enough to tell him to get lost.

[AnneD]

54. My psychological autopsy on Ayn Rand....

Thanks to WEE, I received a final much need piece of the puzzle to looking at AR. I will say up front that I am not a psychologist. I have no degree other than my Nursing degree. But as any Nurse will tell you, I have in site that comes from working bedside and being a student of human nature.

Call it serf mentality, but Russians have always preferred a strong leader-the more brutal the better. Even though Ayn is Russian American-I expect the same was true. As much as she praised the strong and acted strong herself, she preferred to be dominated (as witnessed by her sex scene in Atlas Shrugged. How else can one explain her slavish worship of William Edward Hickman (murdering sociopath)as the ideal man.

If Ayn Rand were alive today, I could see her striking up a pen pal love relationship Ted Bundy were he still alive. It is that that same slavish desire to be dominated that explains the RWC and CC and their devotion to Ayn Rand. They wish to have someone tell them what to do and make decisions for them. They don't want to or are afraid to think for themselves. These are the followers.

This is a sign of an immature mind and stunted personality. The more mature mind is self actualized, able to express and tend to it's own needs and desires and is cognizant of the needs of others. For example, a baby is only able to focus on it's own need but an adult will postpone or delay their needs to see to the needs of the child first, them themselves.

So according to the tenants of reincarnation....Ayn is not getting off the wheel any time soon.

[Ghost Dog]

55. Nicely put, Warpy and AnneD both.

Sure, the process of growing up and of Liberation of both sexes can sometimes involve, um, strange bedfellows.

:)

[Tansy_Gold]

57. I think her psychological profile

would be very familiar, dare I say even textbookish, to Bob Altemeyer.

She's a classic rightwing authoritarian (RWA) social dominator. For them there is no middle ground, no middle class. There are tsars and boyars with the power of life and death, and then there are the serfs.

Remember that Eddie Willers described himself, without apology, as a medieval serf. Rand, as Eddie's creator, had no problem with that. The Russian nobility was the antithesis of the bolsheviks, and so in Rand's black-and-white logic, the enemy of mine enemy is my ideal.


TG

[ozymandius]

10. 10 Years Later, a Much Less Expensive Dow 10,000

INVESTORS may take some comfort now that the Dow Jones industrial average is back above 10,000 after slipping to around 9,700 at the end of October.

But the return to 10,000 also serves as a bitter reminder that stocks have gone virtually nowhere, on balance, for more than a decade. It was in March 1999 that the Dow first climbed above 10,000, before soaring as high as 14,164 two years ago and plummeting as low as 6,547 this past March.
.....

Market valuations are another consideration. By almost every measure, stocks are far cheaper at Dow 10,000 today than at Dow 10,000 in March 1999.

Back then, the price-to-earnings ratio for domestic stocks stood at a very high 41.4. That’s based on 10-year average earnings, a conservative measure that smoothes out short-term swings in corporate profits. Since then, using the same measure, the market’s P/E has fallen to 18.9. While that’s not necessarily a screaming bargain — the market’s long-term average is closer to 16 — stocks are trading at a discount of more than 50 percent to their 1999 prices.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/15/business/economy/15fund.html?_r=1

---

Ritholtz also has a take on the dissonance in market valuation over the ten year span.

An excerpt:

That would seem to argue for the value player’s approach to investing. And over long periods of time (decades), the value approach is indeed valid.

However, academic studies have shown conclusively that it is your asset allocation strategy that is the greatest determiner of your returns. The best stockpickers out there got crushed if they were 100% long US equities in 2008; The worst bond mangers still did well relatively.

More at link...

[ozymandius]

12. The Worst is yet to Come: Unemployed Americans Should Hunker Down for More Job Losses (Roubini)

His forecast is based on previous measures of unemployment:

Think the worst is over? Wrong. Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening. While the official unemployment rate is already 10.2% and another 200,000 jobs were lost in October, when you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers the figure is a whopping 17.5%.

While losing 200,000 jobs per month is better than the 700,000 jobs lost in January, current job losses still average more than the per month rate of 150,000 during the last recession.

Also, remember: The last recession ended in November 2001, but job losses continued for more than a year and half until June of 2003; ditto for the 1990-91 recession.

So we can expect that job losses will continue until the end of 2010 at the earliest. In other words, if you are unemployed and looking for work and just waiting for the economy to turn the corner, you had better hunker down. All the economic numbers suggest this will take a while. The jobs just are not coming back.

There's really just one hope for our leaders to turn things around: a bold prescription that increases the fiscal stimulus with another round of labor-intensive, shovel-ready infrastructure projects, helps fiscally strapped state and local governments and provides a temporary tax credit to the private sector to hire more workers. Helping the unemployed just by extending unemployment benefits is necessary not sufficient; it leads to persistent unemployment rather than job creation.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/roubini-monitor/257978/the_worst_is_yet_to_come_unemployed_americans_should_hunker_down_for_more_job_losses

---

I agree with the dour professor. Mere preparation for intensive, infrastructure building projects will boost employment. Progressive tweaks to fiscal policy will have an almost immediate effect on personal consumption.

[Demeter]

14. US Treasury eager to extend Tarp into next year

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3916aada-d20f-11de-a0f0-00144feabdc0.html

The Obama administration is leaning towards extending the troubled asset relief programme into next year, retaining part of the $700bn war chest in case of another financial emergency.

Although no final decision has been made, officials in the Treasury are wary of letting the fund expire as scheduled at the end of the year and are seeking to allay criticisms and fears about the future use of Tarp, which has been tapped to provide capital injections in a variety of companies from Citigroup to General Motors.

The financial system has stabilised since Tarp was first used last year and banks such as Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase have repaid the government.

But the administration is expected to extend its ability to make Tarp investments until October next year – without having to return to Congress – in case of another unforeseen calamity that can be mitigated with government money.

If the administration were to give it up but then try to secure additional investment funds, it would face a potentially hostile Congress. Even extending it as authorised will face resistance.

“Clearly, I’m against it,” said Jeb Hensarling, a Republican member of the House financial services committee and of the congressional oversight panel that scrutinises Tarp.

To try to assuage criticism from both parties, the administration is touting the fact that it now expects “to use significantly less Tarp funding than authorised”. It said last week that $366.4bn had been paid out and $472.5bn of $700bn had been committed. As the expectation for spending comes down, there is a reduction in the projected debt levels and a positive impact on the budget deficit.

But the Treasury has a tough task to use a lower-cost Tarp as an example of fiscal conservatism, with Republicans and some Democrats saying their spending restraint is insufficient while liberals want to deploy the money in new areas to support small business, commercial real estate and housing.

Mr Hensarling called any suggestion of Tarp having a positive impact on the budget deficit “smoke and mirrors accounting” and said other ways for the Treasury to constrain the use of Tarp could only be “teeny tiny baby steps in the right direction”.

He said he had always doubted that the administration would give up its “$700bn of walking around money” and that he would keep calling for the programme to be wound down.

While the Treasury continues to hedge its bets, there is no doubt among many Democrats that the fund’s extension is an obvious move. “Of course it’s going to be extended,” said one Democratic aide

However, the Democrats are more divided on the issue.

Barney Frank, chairman of the House financial services committee, has introduced a bill that would force the Treasury to transfer $2bn of Tarp and dividends paid by Tarp recipients into programmes for emergency mortgage relief and the redevelopment of foreclosed homes.

Other Democrats have sided with Republicans to call for a quick wind-down of the programme.

[ozymandius]

18. Of Course, Treasury Wants To Hang on to TARP Money

From Naked Capitalism:

When has a bureaucrat every wanted to give up on a big slush fund? Particularly one with no strings attached?

What is heinous about the discussion of Treasury’s plan to argue that it should have its authority under the TARP extended is the failure to include some of the most basic and troubling issues.

First, there is nary a mention of explicitly excluding from any extension (assuming there is one) the Treasury Secretary being beyond the reach of the law. That is unacceptable in a democracy.

Second, the debate, at least as represented in the Financial Times, focuses narrowly on the TARP, and misses completely all the games the Treasury played with the Fed to make those funds go much further via using the Fed as an unauthorized, and likely unconstitutional, quasi fiscal agent of the Treasury. To quote Willem Buiter:

I have written at length before about the ever-expanding quasi-fiscal role of the Fed. This began as soon as the Fed began to take private credit risk (default risk) onto its balance sheet by accepting private securities as collateral in repos, at the discount window and at one of the myriad facilities it has created since August 2008. It is possible – I would say likely – that the terms on which the Fed accepted this often illiquid collateral implied even an ex-ante subsidy to the borrower. But the Fed is refusing to provide the necessary information on the valuation of the illiquid collateral, interest rates, fees and other key dimensions of the terms granted those who access its facilities, for outsiders, including Congress, to find out what if any element of subsidy is involved.

Should the borrowing bank default and should the collateral offered also turn out to be impaired, the Fed will suffer an ex-post capital loss on its repos and other collateralised lending operations against private collateral. It does not have an indemnity from the Treasury for such capital losses.

The Fed also created the Maiden Lane I (for Bear Stearns toxic assets), Maiden Lane II (for AIG’s secured loans and Maiden Lane III (for AIG’s credit default swaps) special purpose vehicles in Delaware. The losses made by Maiden lane II and III when the Fed paid off the investors (counterparties) of AIG at par, were, however, not booked on the balance sheets of the two Maidens, but were booked on AIG’s balance sheet, keeping Maiden Lane I and II, and the Fed, clean for the time being. The financial shenanigans used by the Fed (in cahoots with the US Treasury) to limit accountability for these capital losses are quite unacceptable in a democratic society. Clearly, the US authorities are using the financial engineering tricks and legal constructions whose abuse by the private financial sector led to our current predicament, to engage in Congressional- and tax payer accountability avoidance/evasion. To watch the regulators engage in regulatory arbitrage is astonishing.

Notice how nary a word is mentioned on these issues in this piece from the Financial Times...

---

The Financial Times piece to which Yves Smith refers is the one linked above.

[Demeter]

20. Thanks, Ozy

For all you do. Have a good day.

[ozymandius]

22. Thanks!

And good morning :donut: :donut: :donut:

It is time for me to embark on my day. I caught the WEE thread and was simply amazed at the vast amount of information that was waiting to be unveiled. Quite surprisingly, no banks in Georgia made it on the FDIC dance card. There's always next Friday - or even better - midpoint in the week for very special cases.

Have fun watching the Casino.

:hi:

[DemReadingDU]

27. Perfect toon today for the Casino!

Thanks!

[Demeter]

44. And Look at It Go!

135 points in half an hour...

[Demeter]

15. China says Fed policy threatens global recovery

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/85f1fac2-d1dc-11de-a0f0-00144feabdc0.html

The US Federal Reserve is fuelling “speculative investments” and endangering global recovery through loose monetary policy, a senior Chinese official warned on Sunday just hours before President Barack Obama arrived in China for his first visit.

Liu Mingkang, China’s chief banking regulator, said that the combination of a weak dollar and low interest rates had encouraged a “huge carry trade” that was having a “massive impact on global asset prices”.

....Mr Liu’s unusually blunt remarks underscore how China – the largest US creditor because of its massive holdings of Treasury bonds – has become a trenchant critic of monetary and fiscal policy in the US.

Since the start of the financial crisis, Chinese officials have issued a number of warnings that the US should not inflate away its mounting debt burden. Before these latest comments, however, Beijing had generally been most critical of US fiscal policy, urging Washington to spend less.

But speaking at a conference in Beijing, Mr Liu said the Fed’s policy of maintaining low interest rates together with the weak dollar posed a threat to the global economic recovery.

“ is boosting speculative investment in stock and property markets and will pose new, real and insurmountable risks to the global recovery and particularly to the recovery in emerging markets,” said Mr Liu, who is chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission.

“The situation has already encouraged a huge dollar carry trade and had a massive impact on global asset prices,” he added.

However, Mr Liu’s criticism of the Fed comes as China’s own monetary policy is attracting growing scrutiny at home and abroad. Critics say the massive expansion in bank loans this year could cause asset price bubbles and inflation.

[Demeter]

16. Gold output set for decline in long term

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/13435dfe-d218-11de-a0f0-00144feabdc0.html

The world’s top gold mining companies have warned that global production of the precious metal is likely to resume a long-term decline in coming years, in spite of a record-breaking surge in the price of gold to more than $1,100 an ounce.

mining-thumb.jpgMuch of gold’s recent rise to an all-time high of $1,122.85 last week has been due to the weaker dollar and huge inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as investors have sought sanctuary from the financial crisis by buying physical assets.

Analysts said on Sunday that there was ample scope for output to increase over the next year in response to rising prices and after years of stagnating production. That and any rally in the dollar could lead to a correction in the gold price.

Longer-term supply constraints, however, could underpin prices. “Supply will not be a deciding factor, but on balance it should be a price support,” said William Tankard, senior mining analyst at GFMS, the precious metals consultancy.

GFMS estimates global gold mine production will rise 3.7 per cent in 2009 to 2,502 tonnes, largely because of strong Indonesian production. “But that is just an interruption to a downward trend, not a secular shift back to growth.”

[Demeter]

19. Gold hits another record

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091116/bs_nm/us_markets_global

Gold hit a fresh record high on Monday as investors hedged against a weak dollar, while Asian shares gained ground after upbeat reports from U.S. retailers underpinned confidence the global economy is recovering.

European stock futures were set to open higher, according to financial bookmakers, while U.S. equity futures were up 0.7 percent.

Gold surged to a record above $1,128 an ounce, pulling up platinum to its highest level since September 2008, as the dollar (.DXY) dipped 0.4 percent against a basket of currencies and on strong demand for gold futures.

The dollar drifted as currency markets focused on U.S. President Barack Obama's visit to China that began on Sunday and what he might say about the dollar and the Chinese yuan, which the U.S. and many other Western nations believe to be undervalued.

Gold, which has gained 10 percent in the past 2 and weeks, was also boosted by comments from investment fund BlackRock, a manager and adviser to the U.S. Federal Reserve, that gold would rise further and central banks would be net buyers of gold this year.

"The most recent break-out in the gold price in U.S. dollars has caused most gold prices to start trending higher at the same time," Evy Hambro, who runs two BlackRock commodities funds that are among the world's largest commodities funds, said in Sydney.

He added that investors were now looking for gold to rise in other currencies as well as U.S. dollars.

"When you start to see the price rising in a range of different currencies, it is a clear sign of a very strong market to come," Hambro said.

[54anickel]

25. Heh-heh, like that part about ETFs being considered physical assets. Priceless! n/t

[Demeter]

42. The Whole World Is Crazy, Except for You and Me

and I'm not so certain about me any more.

[Demeter]

17. JPMorgan to take full control of Cazenove

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/62eb840a-d1e9-11de-a0f0-00144feabdc0.html

JPMorgan Chase is set to take ownership of Cazenove, the 190-year old stockbroker, in a £940m deal that will trigger bumper pay-outs for some of the City’s leading financiers.

The US investment bank, which entered a partnership with Cazenove five years ago, is in advanced talks to buy for 500p-525p per share the 50 per cent of a joint venture with the stockbroker it does not already own, people familiar with the situation said Sunday.

This is more than double the most recent quoted price of 245p in April this year.

Senior figures at Cazenove, as well as many high-profile former employees, stand to make huge gains from the sale.

David Mayhew, the chairman who joined the group 40 years ago, is set to receive the largest pay-out, of £18m-£19m.

Mr Mayhew owned more than 3.6m ordinary shares and another 400,000 in restricted shares at the end of 2008, according to public filings.

Michael Power, who took over as finance director in 2001 and joined Cazenove’s board five years ago, and Alan Carruthers, who has been head of equities for six years, are in line for £10m and £5m, respectively.

Ian Hannam, head of corporate finance, and former Cazenove luminaries including Robert Pickering, who quit as chief executive last year, and John Paynter, who resigned as vice-chairman of Cazenove last year after 29 years at the stockbroker, are also in line for windfalls.

Just under half of Cazenove’s shares are owned by current staff, while about 9 per cent are owned by institutions and the rest by former partners.

The stockbroker, which is not publicly listed, has 1,500 shareholders in total.

The buy-out will mark the culmination of the tie-up agreed in November 2004 as a way for Cazenove and JPMorgan to expand into new business areas.

Cazenove was keen to broaden its reach and appeal as a discreet London stockbroking firm, while JPMorgan wanted to strengthen its presence in UK corporate broking without the expense and risk of a full take-over.

Discussions between the two companies are continuing and no final decision on a deal has been made.

People close to the talks said JPMorgan planned to retain the Cazenove brand and offer incentives to persuade its top employees to stay.

One person said Mr Mayhew was likely to remain.

Buying the remainder of Cazenove will allow JPMorgan to cement its position in Europe, an increasingly important source of revenue for the bank.

[Tansy_Gold]

26. about all I can do today is a K&R

overwhelmed, as usual this time of year, with stuff to do. But I'm bookmarking lots, reading snips, and as always enjoying -- if that's the proper term -- the process of learning.


Have a great one, everybody!



Tansy Gold, off to work

[DemReadingDU]

28. Interactive U.S. map: Unemployment by County

From January 2007 to September 2009

http://cohort11.americanobserver.net/latoyaegwuekwe/multimediafinal.html

:(

[fasttense]

37. Scary map, thanks for posting. n/t

[nc4bo]

56. Looks like the country is dying a long and painful death.

Thanks for the reality check.

[Demeter]

65. We Shall be Reborn Like the Phoenix Out of the Ashes of Our Pyre

Did you know that the bird on the old Polish flag is a phoenix? Appropriate for a country that didn't exist for 200 years....

In our next incarnation, we are going to have to strictly regulate corporations. The Founding Fathers did what they could, but technology made it a whole lot easier to dodge too simple rules. And we are going to have to say no to multinational corporations, period.

You want to trade, you sell at the border. You want to sell in US you pay duties. No most favored nation crap.

[AnneD]

29. Morning Marketeers...

:donut: and lurkers. I have finished the dog and pony show (the Health Fair) that is my job; Seems the parents at my school decided to boycott the dog and pony show and too a lot of parents from other schools with them. My principal was canned (she has an outstanding record) and the area sup. put her friend in. Nothing against her friend, I like her and feel sorry for her, but switching a strong middle school principal in the middle of November to an Elementary Principal with no Middle School experience with no warning is poor form and bad judgment. The fact that the area Sup lied to many people about it (among other things, doesn't bode well. It was the last straw for the community. While she was putting on this dog and pony show- the parents were meeting with the School District's new Superintendent at a near by church. (side note: for those of you young 'uns-the role of the church in the African -American community has always been key to the communities survival)

They presented their evidence. Even though the Sup said he understood it and would act on it-the pastor said he would present it again to make sure the Sup got the picture. I hope we get our principal back-she is a wonderful leader and friend-but only time will tell. As long as retain our vice principal and the new principal lets her run the show....we are ok. But between my friends death and this drama- I will be in the Dr.'s office getting on BP meds. I haven't been able to get it down.

I went to my metals dealer after the Health Fair. He said it had been packed all day and it was folks buying 4:1. Only folks selling were those with junk gold-broken necklaces, old rings, etc. His advice to me was to but and hold for a while-which was my sense of it too. Eventually it will trend down, as all things do but I feel pretty good about and am patient and have developed nerves of steal. Today's markets are not for the faint of heart and folks on this thread have a leg up because we have been educating ourselves.

Well my alarm is chiming so I have to leave.

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.

[UpInArms]

30. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 74.980 Change -0.100 (-0.13%)

FX Technical Weekly

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2009-11-13-2343-FX_Technical_Weekly.html

The US dollar may be carving out an important low. The Dollar Index dropped beneath its October low this past week but weakness was not confirmed by a new EURUSD high or new USDCHF low. This type of divergence is typical at turns. Still, the EURUSD needs to break below channel support to confirm a top.

<snip>

The story here continues to be about the 50-Day SMA (1.4765) and its ability to prop any setbacks for a majority of the up-trend in 2009. The market has simply been unable to establish a close below the medium-term moving average to keep the bullish structure firmly intact. However, some stretched medium-term technical studies do warn of a major corrective pullback over the near-term and potential shift in the structure. While it is premature to get too aggressive at current levels, we have established a short on Monday by the 78.6% fib retrace off of the 1.5060-1.4625 move, in anticipation of a topside failure ahead of 1.5060 which looks to be playing out. For now, the key level to watch below comes in by 1.4810, with a break to bring the 50-Day back into play. A close below the 50-Day SMA will then directly expose neckline support of a major double top formation at 1.4625 which if broken will force a material shift in the construct of the market and open a medium-term retreat back into the lower 1.4000’s. Only a close back above 1.5060 will delay outlook and threaten short trade.

...more...

US Dollar’s Future in the Hands of Speculators

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/forecast/weekly/usd/2009-11-14-0445-US_Dollar_s_Future_in_the.html



The dollar was able to manage its most aggressive rally against its chief counterpart (the euro) in months this past week; but the move would not last. Without a scheduled or unscheduled event to dramatically alter the dollar’s status in the well-worn carry trade, risk appetite would ensure the currency would remain shackled to its eight-month old bearish trend channel. Looking out over the week to come, the most pressing question for any trader is determining if and when the greenback will finally catalyze its next trend. Some may argue that direction is the primary concern; but without momentum and follow through, the result is fundamental chop that leaves the market open to volatility while slowly building up the pressure behind the eventual breakout. So, is there potential for a clear, dollar trend in the week ahead?

While there are a few notable economic indicators scheduled for release over the coming days, the experienced fundamental trader knows there is a low probability that any one (or very likely all of data working in conjunction) could actually leverage such a meaningful change of trend. These indicators’ principal value is in establishing the forecasted pace of economic recovery and, to a lesser extent, offering minor adjustments to the Fed’s time frame for a return to a hawkish policy regime. However, those following the dollar know that the asset’s primary role is as the safe haven and funding currency for the broader market. Therefore, the analysis on this single currency’s future turns into an assessment of overall risk appetite through the global financial markets. Taking a more expansive look at sentiment, there seem to be few scheduled events or indicators that can spark fear or greed all on its own. In fact, the quality of the data is all-in-all relatively reserved. Somewhat counter-intuitively, these may be the ideal conditions to reestablish a true bias. Often times, when there is a major market-moving event due; price action leading up to its release is muted as traders do not want to leverage risk by increasing exposure. What’s more, if the news doesn’t fall far from forecasts or it otherwise doesn’t play into the larger market themes; a modest increase in volatility is all it can rouse. More often than not, it is those times when the docket is otherwise unencumbered that we see sentiment build momentum and define new trends.

Through the coming weeks and months there is little doubt that risk appetite will define the dollar’s future. However, eventually this negative correlation will eventually fade. To break from the all-consuming fundamental current, the greenback will need to shed its role of the market’s safe haven and funding currency (depending on whether optimism or pessimism is the primary temperament at any time). Altering this brand will be difficult; but a shift in interest rates (target and market) and/or the fiscal health of the US can do it. Currently, the benchmark market rate, the three-month Libor, is at a discount to its Japanese counterpart (history’s favored carry trade component) at 0.2725 percent. A major shift in capital flows into the US or an accelerated timeline for Fed rate hikes can change this. To increase the tepid probabilities of a near-term rate hike (there is a mere 5.7 percent chance for January 27th and only 44 percent probability for June 23rd according to Fed Fund futures), we will take note of the week’s economic offerings. Retail sales will serve as a barometer for consumer spending (accounting for approximately three-quarters of GDP) and the October CPI numbers will reveal whether there is any merit to hawkish concerns through fears of looming inflation.

...more...

[Name removed]

33. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Festivito]

34. Debt: 11/10/2009 11,986,954,033,520.56 (DOWN 3,068,507,844.23) (Tue)

(Debt a little higher, FICA side down. No report was posted on Veteran's day. Good day to all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,588,373,933,038.29 + 4,398,580,100,482.27
UP 298,454,946.90 + DOWN 3,366,962,791.13

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,908,318 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,930.27.
A family of three owes $116,790.81. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 4,143,397,332.37.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,038,491,377.07.
The average for the last 32 days would be 2,848,585,666.00.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 29 reports in 41 days of FY2010 averaging 2.66B$ per report, 1.88B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,167 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/10/2009 11,986,954,033,520.56 BHO (UP 1,360,076,984,607.48 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,077,125,030,008.80 ------------* BHO
Endof10 +0,686,600,876,907.62 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/21/2009 +000,260,615,642.06 ------------********
10/22/2009 -054,881,746,021.15 -
10/23/2009 -000,105,634,856.79 ---
10/26/2009 -000,680,933,964.04 --- Mon
10/27/2009 +000,626,474,250.98 ------------********
10/28/2009 +000,798,039,832.64 ------------********
10/29/2009 -019,769,093,363.09 -
10/30/2009 +031,206,306,633.43 ------------**********
11/02/2009 +091,997,621,963.98 ------------********** Mon
11/03/2009 +000,189,596,548.58 ------------********
11/04/2009 -000,084,777,046.07 ----
11/05/2009 +008,148,647,528.82 ------------*********
11/06/2009 -000,072,128,565.19 ----
11/09/2009 +000,009,587,108.80 ------------****** Mon
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********

57,941,030,639.86 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4143731&mesg_id=4144760

[Festivito]

36. Debt: 11/12/2009 11,991,219,535,897.86 (UP 4,265,502,377.30) (Thu)

(Debt higher, FICA lower. Posted old debt report by accident, here's the one for today. Good day to all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,594,009,912,460.87 + 4,397,209,623,436.99
UP 5,635,979,422.58 + DOWN 1,370,477,045.28

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,925,598 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,941.94.
A family of three owes $116,825.81. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 34 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 4,148,706,247.37.
The average for the last 30 days would be 3,180,674,789.65.
The average for the last 34 days would be 2,806,477,755.57.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 30 reports in 43 days of FY2010 averaging 2.71B$ per report, 1.89B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,165 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/12/2009 11,991,219,535,897.86 BHO (UP 1,364,342,486,984.78 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,081,390,532,386.10 ------------* * BHO
Endof10 +0,690,873,123,742.49 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/22/2009 -054,881,746,021.15 -
10/23/2009 -000,105,634,856.79 ---
10/26/2009 -000,680,933,964.04 --- Mon
10/27/2009 +000,626,474,250.98 ------------********
10/28/2009 +000,798,039,832.64 ------------********
10/29/2009 -019,769,093,363.09 -
10/30/2009 +031,206,306,633.43 ------------**********
11/02/2009 +091,997,621,963.98 ------------********** Mon
11/03/2009 +000,189,596,548.58 ------------********
11/04/2009 -000,084,777,046.07 ----
11/05/2009 +008,148,647,528.82 ------------*********
11/06/2009 -000,072,128,565.19 ----
11/09/2009 +000,009,587,108.80 ------------****** Mon
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********

63,316,394,420.38 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4145236&mesg_id=4145258

[Festivito]

50. Debt: 11/13/2009 11,991,506,876,413.07 (UP 287,340,515.21) (Fri)

(Debt lower, FICA higher. Small amounts.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,593,746,136,388.96 + 4,397,760,740,024.11
DOWN 263,776,071.91 + UP 551,116,587.12

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 308-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.25 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.74, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 307,934,238 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $38,941.78.
A family of three owes $116,825.34. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 3,647,753,503.90.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,796,611,019.66.
The average for the last 31 days would be 2,706,397,760.96.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 31 reports in 44 days of FY2010 averaging 2.63B$ per report, 1.86B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,164 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
11/13/2009 11,991,506,876,413.07 BHO (UP 1,364,629,827,499.99 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,081,677,872,901.30 ------------* * BHO
Endof10 +0,677,555,082,022.15 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
10/23/2009 -000,105,634,856.79 ---
10/26/2009 -000,680,933,964.04 --- Mon
10/27/2009 +000,626,474,250.98 ------------********
10/28/2009 +000,798,039,832.64 ------------********
10/29/2009 -019,769,093,363.09 -
10/30/2009 +031,206,306,633.43 ------------**********
11/02/2009 +091,997,621,963.98 ------------********** Mon
11/03/2009 +000,189,596,548.58 ------------********
11/04/2009 -000,084,777,046.07 ----
11/05/2009 +008,148,647,528.82 ------------*********
11/06/2009 -000,072,128,565.19 ----
11/09/2009 +000,009,587,108.80 ------------****** Mon
11/10/2009 +000,298,454,946.90 ------------********
11/12/2009 +005,635,979,422.58 ------------*********
11/13/2009 -000,263,776,071.91 ---

117,934,364,369.62 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4148092&mesg_id=4148199

[Demeter]

43. Please Stand While We Recite the Lloyd's Prayer

The Lloyd's Prayer
From an email making its way around Wall Street this morning:

Our Chairman,
Who Art At Goldman,
Blankfein Be Thy Name.
The Rally's Come. God's Work Be Done
On Earth As There's No Fear Of Correction.
Give Us This Day Our Daily Gains,
And Bankrupt Our Competitors
As You Taught Lehman and Bear Their Lessons.
And Bring Us Not Under Indictment.
For Thine Is The Treasury,
The House And The Senate
Forever and Ever.
Goldman.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/11/16/the_lloyds_prayer.html

Shamelessly stolen from kpete (Blankfein would be so proud!)

[unhappycamper]

49. You really should post this in GD or GD:P. n/t

[Demeter]

64. That's Where I found It

and stole it from kpete

[Roland99]

46. Bernanke: financial firms must be allowed to fail

Bernanke: financial firms must be allowed to fail
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-financial-firms-must-be-allowed-to-fail-2009-11-16

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Monday said the nation will not have a "real market-based financial system until it's safe to let a financial firm fail." Bernanke, who also said the country must devise an alternative to the government bailout of a financial firm considered too large to let fail. The Fed chief made his comments in a question-and-answer period following an address on the economy

:eyes:

[Demeter]

47. "SAFE to let a financial firm fail"?

In what way is it UNsafe?

Main Street's ox wouldn't be gored any more if Goldman went under than it's being gored right now, by a Goldman gone wild.

It's not as if the 10 percenters would take to the streets and riot.

Bernanke needs glasses and a better speech writer.

[mullard12ax7]

48. Another TMM (Totally Manipulated Monday)

but that means I need an acronym for every day of the week now, TMT, TMW, TMTr, TMF. Oh well, I guess I'll go read some more terror-war-flu news while I throw a few more soldiers into the abyss and vote against human rights for some supposed health care victory that requires everyone to buy corrupt crap from criminal corporations.

[Demeter]

66. That's The Spirit!

You are a true blue, Red American.

[Garam_Masala]

69. aka Irrational Exuberence eom

[Joe Chi Minh]

51. You know what really grips me? The way the kleptocracy call their

remuneration, "compensation". As if it were recompense for an ordeal they had endured, the pain and suffering caused by their board-room partying and traversing golf courses in their buggies.

I don't know whether it was French business shysters or ours who first adopted the term, but it sure drives me nuts when I read it. IT'S WORK! And work is both a duty, when available and properly remunerated, and a privilege! If people need to be COMPENSATED, i.e. more appropriately, it's the people who do the dirty and/or dangerous jobs, such as sewage workers, garbage men, firemen, policemen. You board-room scoundrels just need appropriately decimated pay-packets. All right. Remuneration.

[Ghost Dog]

59. It's compensation for getting out from between the silk sheets

and the arms of the expensive lady, man, just to make sure the underlings and artisans and soul-less computers are doing what you require of them each day...

While macho-posturing apelike in competition with one's possibly godless probably dumb and/or genuinely evil life-and-civilisation-destroying peers.

[Joe Chi Minh]

60. Always feel free to speak your mind, here, Ghostie.... No need for coy circumlocutions.

[Ghost Dog]

62. Heh, heh.

:wink:

[Joe Chi Minh]

61. You get the impression they think they deserve a George Medal or Victoria Cross,

as well as the plunder. I wish they could be COMPENSATED posthumously. By cheque.

I had a great-aunt Lilly, who - I don't want to speak ill of the dead - was not a nice person. My aunty Hazel, her niece, was/is the opposite: the soul of kindness. Anyway, on Lilly's death-bed, she suddenly turned to Hazel and said, "You owe me one and thruppence!" I thought of that line about a cheque, when I heard it.

I remember now that, bizarre as it sounds, at that time, in the mid-forties, indeed for a long time after, women were not permitted to have cheque-books. Though, being banks, I dare say they would have found ways of looking after substantial amounts of money on their behalf.

[Ghost Dog]

63. "On their behalf"

For sure.

[Ghost Dog]

52. LEAP/E2020: States faced with three brutal options in 2010: inflation, high taxation or default

As anticipated by LEAP/E2020 last February, in the absence of major reappraisal of the international monetary order, the world is now entering the phase of geopolitical dislocation of the global systemic crisis. In 2010, as protectionism and the economic and social depression will gain momentum, a large number of States will be compelled to choose between three brutal options: inflation, high taxation or defaulting on their debt. A growing number of countries (USA, United Kingdom, Euroland (1), Japan, China (2),…) have used all their budgetary and monetary cartridges in the 2008/2009 financial crisis and are now left with no other alternative. Nevertheless, out of ideological reflex or in an attempt to avoid by any means having to make such painful choices, they will try to launch new stimulus plans (under different names) even though it is now clear that the huge public effort made in the past months to boost the economy is having no impact on the private sector. Indeed the consumer-as-we-knew-him in the past decades is dead, with no hope of resurrection (3). Knowing that nearly 30 percent of Western countries’ economies are now made of « economic zombies » (financial institutions, companies and even states, whose signs of life are only due to central banks’ liquidity injections), it is possible to confirm the inevitability of the “impossible recovery” (4). The international and social (within each country) « everyman for himself » rule is beginning to prevail, as well as a general impoverishment of the ex-Western world, United States in the first place. In fact the West is being scuttled by leaders unable to face the reality of a post-crisis world, who keep resorting to methods from yesterday’s world despite their proved inefficiency.

...

But trends regarding consumption and investment are extremely negative. The consumer is incited to save money, pay back his debt and, more generally, reject (willingly or not) the Western model of consumption of the past thirty years (5) due to which growth, in the US and UK in particular, became nearly entirely dependent on him (6). Meanwhile, companies, due to their lack of visibility (to be positive) or to their negative forecasts, are cutting on investment, a situation emphasized by banking credit restrictions (7). Public investment also is reaching limits: it will be impossible to significantly extend or renew previous stimulus plans without excessively increasing public deficits and then being faced, at the end of 2010, to at least two of the three brutal optionsv(8). The states are indeed exposed to increasing pressure (general public, supervisory bodies, private investors) (9) to balance their bad, see dangerous, budgets. In other words, public investment in 2010/2011 is doomed to shrink away.

Foreign demand is completely soaked: everyone wants to export in order to find abroad the greedy consumer or the investing company that is no longer to be found at home. The great myth being that Asia, and China in particular, will provide for this « new Western-style consumer ». Besides the fact that many will be called but few will be chosen among non-Chinese or non-Asian to enjoy the region’s market, it would be an underestimation of the systemic nature of the global crisis to imagine that this new consumer will be as greedy as the now moribund Western consumer. The luxury industry and its current woes in Asia clearly illustrate this situation.

...

Central banks continue to supply financial markets with liquidity, hoping that at some point their huge quantitative effort will result in some qualitative surge in the real economy. In the US and UK particularly, as they continue to pretend that the crisis does not reflect a general problem of insolvency (of banks, consumers, public organizations and companies), they “wait for Godot” and create the conditions for soaring inflation, and collapsing currencies and public money.

States unflinchingly continue to bear the consequences of banks’ mistakes, nevertheless still listening to bankers’ advice. Thus they built up a debt of first unreasonable and then intolerable proportion, and now they are on the verge of drastically cutting public spending (10° and of significantly increasing taxes in an attempt to avoid bankruptcy (11).

« Economic zombies» (12), private and public ones, now account for a large part of Western and Chinese economies: objectively defaulting states (like the UK or US) which no one dares technically declare as such; bankrupt companies still allowed to run by fear of increasing unemployment (13); insolvent banks (14) whose accounting rules are modified, artificially swollen to hide the worthlessness of their assets, to postpone their inevitable implosion (15).

Financial markets are going up thanks to liquidity graciously offered by central banks (16) eager to give back to the consumer/grant-holder a felling of wealth in the hope that he will start being himself again and consume, when in fact all categories of assets (17), such as gold for instance, are also going up (even faster in most cases), clearly indicating that inflation has in fact returned.

Unemployed people are piling up in dozens of millions in and out of official figures, suggesting that 2010 will be a tough year socially-speaking, placed under the sign of protectionism to save jobs (by means of tariff, environmental or sanitary barriers, or by means of simple competitive devaluations), while governments wonder how much longer they can take the global cost of so much unemployment when no recovery is in sight (18).

...

LEAP/E2020 wrote in February and March 2009 that, if the international monetary system was not completely reconsidered before summer 2009, the world would inevitably move towards a situation of global geopolitical dislocation, some sort of a worldwide “very great depression”, centered on the collapse of yesterday’s world’s pillar, the US. That’s where we are now (19). Even tampered figures (20) can no longer hide the level of deterioration of the global economic and social situation nor the descent to hell of the US economy and society. This reality is clearly appearing and will be obvious to everyone by the beginning of the second quarter of 2010

/... http://leap2020.eu/GEAB-N-39-is-available!-Global-systemic-crisis-States-faced-with-three-brutal-options-in-2010-inflation,-high-taxation_a3995.html

[Demeter]

67. First, We Kill All the Corporations

and asset strip the obscenely wealthy. Then the rebuilding can begin.

[Ghost Dog]

58. Music: Vieux Farka Toure "Bamako jam", +...

1: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRYi89cvr3w
2: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_2x4M-L4WzY
3: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PvZHlgoYmJM
4: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3OSsSruMo4Y

...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LBDU6XtAoWk&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6xmYkjesR5k&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bA__bM7abhg&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqIP5CeEK_c&NR=1&feature=fvwp