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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 05:43 AM
Original message
STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday February 3
Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday February 3, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Name(s): David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON February 2, 2010

Dow... 10,296.85 +111.32 (+1.09%)
Nasdaq... 2,190.06 +18.86 (+0.87%)
S&P 500... 1,103.32 +14.14 (+1.30%)
Gold future... 1,118 +13.20 (+1.20%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.64 -0.01 (-0.25%)
30-Year Bond 4.56 +0.00 (+0.07%)




U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES


Market Conditions During Trading Hours



GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$



Handy Links - Market Data and News:
Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance
    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
    Brad DeLong    Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov









This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 05:47 AM
Response to Original message
1. Market Observation
Long Term Perspectives and a Recap of
4th Quarter Real GDP
BY RON GRIESS


...
"Regressing to the mean" is a term often cited by financial commentators. In truth, market prices spend very little time at a "mean." If our trend line is considered a "mean," the following chart shows just how little time the DJIA has spent at the "mean," especially since 1925.

Our friend, Jim Bianco, first shared the following chart with us in the early 1990's. The purpose of the Market Capitalization/GDP calculation is to try to relate the market value of the stock market to GDP. What the chart shows is just how dramatic the "bubble" was at the top in 2000 compared to any other time since 1925.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

- lotsa charts
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 05:50 AM
Response to Original message
2. Today's Reports
07:30 Challenger Job Cuts Jan
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -72.9%

08:15 ADP Employment Change Jan
Briefing.com -60K
Consensus -30K
Prior -84K

10:00 ISM Services Jan
Briefing.com 52.1
Consensus 51.0
Prior 49.8

10:30 Crude Inventories 1/29
Briefing.com NA
Consensus NA
Prior -3.89M

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm
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rfranklin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 07:37 AM
Response to Reply #2
22. Planned layoffs rise for first time since July: Challenger Gray
Feb. 3, 2010, 7:31 a.m. EST

Planned layoffs rise for first time since July: Challenger Gray
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Planned layoff announcements at major U.S. corporations increased 59% in January, reaching 71,482 from a nine-year low of 45,094 seen in December, according to the latest job-cut tally by Challenger Gray & Christmas.

It was the first month-to-month increase since July, the outplacement firm reported Wednesday.

Apple's Co-Founder on His Toyota FrustrationsApple Inc. co-founder Steve Wozniak speaks about the hassles of dealing with his Toyota Prius after the recent recalls. Video courtesy of Fora TV.
Layoff plans ran 70% lower than the 241,749 announced in January 2009, which was a seven-year high.

Planned reductions for last month were led by retail companies, which announced 16,737 job cuts, and telecommunications companies, which cut 14,010 jobs.

Challenger Gray's monthly tally covers only a small fraction of those who lose their jobs each month. Most layoffs are not announced in press releases.

According to the government's most recent report, 2.05 million people lost their jobs via layoffs or terminations in November. Through the first 11 months of the 2009, the government counted 25.6 million layoffs.

By Challenger Gray's count, companies announced 1.288 million job cuts during 2009.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/planned-layoffs-rise-for-first-time-since-july-2010-02-03

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 05:53 AM
Response to Original message
3. Oil hovers above $77 in Asia on demand hopes
BANGKOK – Oil prices slipped Wednesday in Asia but held most of the gains from the previous day when economic reports suggested demand for crude could improve.

Benchmark crude for March delivery was down 17 cents at $77.06 a barrel at midday Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract jumped more than $2 on Tuesday.

The overnight rise in the oil price is the latest swing on the price seesaw over the past two months or so. Prices jumped about 20 percent from mid-December to a 15-month high last month only to slide more than 10 percent through the end of the month. ....

In other Nymex trading in March contracts, heating oil fell 0.4 cent to $2.0276 a gallon, and gasoline was unchanged at $2.0186 a gallon. Natural gas fell 1.1 cent to $5.443 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 05:56 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Oil advance before US energy report
...
Later Wednesday, the US government's Department of Energy (DoE) will publish its snapshot of crude stockpiles for the week ending January 29.

"All eyes are back on US fuel inventories today and we expect a small draw in distillates," said VTB Capital commodities analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov.

"We also expect higher gasoline stocks with demand for petrol still struggling. Crude inventories could rise on rebounding imports," he added. ...

In earlier Asian deals on Wednesday, oil prices pulled back after US industry body the American Petroleum Institute (API) had said Tuesday that there had been a build-up in US crude stockpiles -- indicating weak demand.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20100203/bs_afp/commoditiesenergyoilprice_20100203102415
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 06:00 AM
Response to Original message
5. AIG Unit Staff Agrees to $20 Mln Cut (from $100 Mln in bonus cash)
NEW YORK (Reuters) - AIG <AIG.N> said on Tuesday current and former employees of its Financial Products unit had so far agreed to accept cuts totalling about $20 million (12.5 million pounds) in retention payments, short of a $26 million target.

American International Group Inc, which was bailed out with a $182.3 billion U.S. aid package, said it had decided to begin making the reduced payments to current and former employees who had agreed to the cuts. An earlier payout was part of the proposals the company had made to the employees.

These payments would total $100 million, the Washington Post reported. Although the payout is part of a previously known $195 million award that was due to employees of the AIG Financial Products unit, the news drew a fresh round of criticism from some members of Congress. ...

The outrage follows a public outcry last March when AIG paid $165 million to employees of the unit that was behind the insurer's near collapse. Following the criticism, some employees of the unit said they would pay back $45 million from the retention payments they received in March 2009, but AIG got only $19 million back, putting it under pressure from various quarters including U.S. pay czar Kenneth Feinberg to recover the remaining money.

AIG asked the unit's current and former employees to make up for the difference by taking cuts from the $195 million in retention payments that were due this March.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2010/02/03/business/business-uk-aig.html
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 06:20 AM
Response to Reply #5
8. Dinallo: What I Learned at the AIG Meltdown
NYS Insurance Commissioner Eric Dinallo lays out what he sees as the 4 key elements of the AIG collapse:
1. Insurance policyholders at AIG were protected by reserves that each of the insurance companies are required to hold by state regulation;

2. Unregulated use of credit default swaps and other high-risk instruments by AIG Financial Products, noninsurance unit with wildly insufficient reserves, caused AIG to stumble and threatened the financial system.

3. By September 2008 the Federal Reserve acted to protect the financial system from what it believed to be an imminent risk of catastrophic damage from AIG Financial Products;

4. In November 2008, when the Fed restructured its AIG financing, including the termination of tens of billions of credit default swaps and the widely criticized purchase (at par) of the underlying securities, the Fed had over $70 billion already at risk with AIG and was appropriately considering the value and operations of AIG’s insurance companies.
More at The Big Picture
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rfranklin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 06:59 AM
Response to Reply #5
18. "AIG's near collapse"...I would say they collapsed and were resucitated by Uncle Sam...
It was sort of a Weekend at Bernie's scenario with Geithner and Bernanke dragging the AIG corpse around town.
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AnneD Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 07:57 AM
Response to Reply #18
24. Morning Marketeers...
:donut: and lurkers. Let me get this cyber water cooler started off with a joke before I go. Just think of any 'too big to fail organization'

St. Peter is at the pearly gates doing some book keeping. A bell goes off and he sees a guy waiting to be let in. St Peter press the button , the gates open, and the guy walks in. St. Peter goes back to his book keeping.

Again the bell rings, it is the same guy and St. Peter lets him in and goes back to work. This goes in for several times more. The bell rings again. Exacerbated, St. Peter slams the quill pen down and says to the guy,' Do you want in to Heaven or not'. The guy replies ' I really want to stay....... but they keep resuscitating me.'

Happy hunting and watch out for the bears.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 06:12 AM
Response to Original message
6. Bank of America Said to Pay Bankers Average Bonus of $400,000
Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp., the nation’s largest lender, will pay investment-banking employees bonuses of about $4.4 billion for last year, or an average of $400,000 each, a person close to the bank said.

As much as 95 percent will be paid in stock vesting over about three years, the person said. Those receiving the smallest bonuses will get about half their compensation in cash, paid later this month, the person said. The unit accounts for 10,000 people, or 4 percent of the bank’s 283,000 workers.

Bank of America, the target of political wrath for its acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co. even as the faltering Wall Street firm handed out $3.6 billion of employee bonuses, reaped a $6.3 billion profit in 2009. This year’s investment bank bonuses are a third less than $6.5 billion that the combined units would have paid in the peak year of 2006, the person said, citing internal Bank of America calculations. ....

The Financial Times cited unidentified people as saying that top Bank of America performers in global banking and markets will receive bonuses of about $5 million, while managing directors will get $2.5 million to $3 million.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aB9F9yg63I0o&pos=2



And the siphoning off and concentration of wealth continues...
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 07:18 AM
Response to Reply #6
21. They create no wealth, they only steal it from those who do
I am having a marvelous schadenfreude morning. May it be an omen for the rest of the thieves.

The nightmare "new software" foisted on me and my fellow "freelancers" on Monday -- which is primarily a "nightmare" because the company did NO training, produced NO instruction manual, and had NO staff prepared and available for assistance -- crashed their system yesterday. They've been down since at least 3:00 PM MST 2/2/10, not up yet, and I'm cryin' in my beer over it.

Had they been a little less greedy, a little less cheap, a little less dismissive of the people who actually do the work for them, this might not have happened.


Sometimes Karma can bite ya in the ass --- hard.



Tansy Gold, who thinks we need a lot more new smileys than just ESAD and FRSP -- we need a fanged Karma :evilgrin:

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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 02:53 PM
Response to Reply #6
52. I move that any bankers who get a fat bonus must change their title from banker to wanker.
Small change, but important.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 06:17 AM
Response to Original message
7. Bats Plans Second U.S. Stock Market by End of Second Quarter
Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Bats Global Markets, owner of the fourth-largest U.S. stock venue, plans to open a second trading network in late May or June to offer brokerages and investors new incentives and pricing. The International Securities Exchange said it’s considering another options platform.

Bats Y-Exchange, or BYX, will start trading equities in the second quarter, pending approval by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Chief Operating Officer Chris Isaacson said in an interview. The public can comment on the proposal from Kansas City, Missouri-based Bats until March 15.

Stock markets operated by Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. and Direct Edge Holdings LLC have gained business in the past year from firms seeking to hold down execution costs for low-priced shares. Running a second system lets a market tailor pricing to win different kinds of business. ...

Among the four largest U.S. stock-market operators, Bats is the only one that doesn’t operate multiple trading platforms. New York-based Nasdaq and Jersey City, New Jersey-based Direct Edge have two, while NYSE Euronext of New York has three. Nasdaq is planning a third venue, using the license it acquired when it bought the Philadelphia Stock Exchange in July 2008. ...

Bats said it executed 10.2 percent of U.S. stock trading in January, an increase from 9.3 percent in December. Its 11 owners are Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., Credit Suisse Group AG, Deutsche Bank AG, Getco LLC, JPMorgan Chase & Co., the estate of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., Lime Brokerage LLC, Morgan Stanley, Tradebot Systems Inc. and Wedbush Morgan Securities.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=av6oM.QDDmIw&pos=12
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 06:27 AM
Response to Original message
9. Debt: 02/01/2010 12,349,463,585,067.42 (UP 70,827,587,100.54) (Mon)
(Up a good bit. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good good day to all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,849,809,516,401.30 + 4,499,654,068,666.12
UP 90,319,223,365.33 + DOWN 19,491,636,264.79

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.72, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,625,438 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,014.41.
A family of three owes $120,043.22. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 1,814,947,978.83.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,270,463,585.18.
The average for the last 32 days would be 1,191,059,611.11.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 83 reports in 124 days of FY2010 averaging 5.30B$ per report, 3.55B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,084 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.6 and 17.9T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/01/2010 12,349,463,585,067.42 BHO (UP 1,722,586,536,154.34 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,439,634,581,555.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,294,085,663,450.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/11/2010 -000,226,209,166.36 --- Mon
01/12/2010 +000,163,748,521.92 ------------********
01/13/2010 -000,144,326,167.15 ---
01/14/2010 -025,105,278,682.17 -
01/15/2010 +057,080,501,160.91 ------------**********
01/19/2010 -000,292,818,574.91 --- Tue
01/20/2010 +001,498,198,188.82 ------------*********
01/21/2010 -031,161,420,148.11 -
01/22/2010 -000,070,049,877.74 ----
01/25/2010 -000,041,466,126.01 ---- Mon
01/26/2010 +000,973,181,275.87 ------------********
01/27/2010 +000,063,416,019.94 ------------*******
01/28/2010 -024,245,578,618.07 -
01/29/2010 -000,416,981,206.21 ---
02/01/2010 +090,319,223,365.33 ------------********** Mon

68,394,139,966.06 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4253003&mesg_id=4253017
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Festivito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 03:49 PM
Response to Reply #9
55. Debt: 02/02/2010 12,360,943,989,345.48 (UP 11,480,404,278.06) (Tue)
(Down a little. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 7,849,743,504,000.83 + 4,511,200,485,344.65
DOWN 66,012,400.47 + UP 11,546,416,678.53

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.72, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,634,078 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,050.48.
A family of three owes $120,151.45. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 2,254,286,901.52.
The average for the last 30 days would be 1,653,143,727.78.
The average for the last 33 days would be 1,502,857,934.35.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 84 reports in 125 days of FY2010 averaging 5.37B$ per report, 3.61B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,083 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 13.8 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
02/02/2010 12,360,943,989,345.48 BHO (UP 1,734,066,940,432.40 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,451,114,985,833.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,317,255,758,634.41 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
01/12/2010 +000,163,748,521.92 ------------********
01/13/2010 -000,144,326,167.15 ---
01/14/2010 -025,105,278,682.17 -
01/15/2010 +057,080,501,160.91 ------------**********
01/19/2010 -000,292,818,574.91 --- Tue
01/20/2010 +001,498,198,188.82 ------------*********
01/21/2010 -031,161,420,148.11 -
01/22/2010 -000,070,049,877.74 ----
01/25/2010 -000,041,466,126.01 ---- Mon
01/26/2010 +000,973,181,275.87 ------------********
01/27/2010 +000,063,416,019.94 ------------*******
01/28/2010 -024,245,578,618.07 -
01/29/2010 -000,416,981,206.21 ---
02/01/2010 +090,319,223,365.33 ------------********** Mon
02/02/2010 -000,066,012,400.47 ----

68,554,336,731.95 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4254322&mesg_id=4254343
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 06:27 AM
Response to Original message
10. Senator Dodd dons his whore garb.
Dodd Calls Obama Plan Too Grand

WASHINGTON — The chairman of the Senate Banking Committee warned on Tuesday that the Obama administration’s new proposals to rein in Wall Street firms ran the risk of derailing months of delicate negotiations over overhauling financial regulations. ...

Mr. Dodd, Democrat of Connecticut, added that the administration was “getting precariously close” to excessive ambition for the legislation. “I don’t want to be in a position where we end up doing nothing because we tried to do too much,” he said. ...

Attempts by big banks to regulate themselves will inevitably fail, Mr. Volcker suggested. When a bank trades for its own account — as opposed to the money of its customers — “it will almost inevitably find itself, consciously or inadvertently, acting at cross purposes” to the interests of its customers, he said.

The deputy Treasury secretary, Neal S. Wolin, who testified alongside Mr. Volcker, said the proposed ban would apply to any company, foreign or domestic, that owned a bank with federally insured deposits, but would “not disrupt the core functions and activities of a banking firm,” including lending, asset management, giving financial advice and hedging risks “in connection with client-driven transactions.”

Several Republican senators expressed skepticism about the proposals.



Now that raising campaign money is no longer an option - Dodd is now whoring for a job to sweeten his retirement years. When the article says " new proposals to rein in Wall Street firms ran the risk of derailing months of delicate negotiations" - that says to me that Wall Street firms are helping to write their own regulations.
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 06:32 AM
Response to Reply #10
11. "Derailing months of delicate negotiations".
His employment negotiations, I presume.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 06:37 AM
Response to Reply #11
13. And the loopholes
I am sure that 200 pages of bold type regulations will be undone with 300 pages of mice type conditions, stipulations and (otherwise) loopholes. This should be a clear indication of who Senator Dodd considers his constituents.
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 06:46 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. He'll come up with lots of loopholes.
Just like his HAVA Act. Just enough to accomplish the exact opposite of what it's supposed to do.
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Roland99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 06:48 AM
Response to Reply #10
15. What a disappointment he became.
*sigh*

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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 06:51 AM
Response to Reply #15
17. I seem to recall Dr. Phool saying
that Senator Dodd is the stupidest politician he has ever met. Correct, Dr. Phool?
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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 06:59 AM
Response to Reply #17
19. Dumber than a box of hammers.
Not a clue in the fucking world.

He's top 3 dumb for sure, but, off the top of my head, I can't think of anyone who tops him.
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 08:46 AM
Response to Reply #19
28. That's an insult to hammers
Seriously -- maybe it's time for a constitutional amendment limiting the time these buffoons can serve. Something like a lifetime maximum 5 congressional terms or 2 Senate terms but no more than a total of 20 years combined. Then they're out. That would eliminate this lifetime appointment for incumbents, would get new blood in, and would change the seniority-based committee leadership more often.

not that such an amendment would ever pass congress, but hey, a girl can dream, can't she?





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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 08:52 AM
Response to Reply #28
30. I'd Rather Use a Combination IQ and Ethics Test
to be applied EACH TIME a candidate volunteers to run for office. Selection by competitive examination...
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 02:57 PM
Response to Reply #30
53. There's already an ethics test. If you have any, you can't play.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 06:33 AM
Response to Original message
12. El-Erian Says Retreat in Stocks Will Worsen as Economy Slumps
Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Mohamed A. El-Erian, whose firm runs the world’s biggest mutual fund, said the largest stock market decline in 11 months may worsen amid persistent U.S. joblessness and economic growth that trails analysts’ forecasts.

Investors have wrongly priced in an “orderly” withdrawal of stimulus measures, a rebound in bank lending and coordinated government policy to restore growth, the chief executive officer of Pacific Investment Management Co. wrote in a Bloomberg News column. That means Wall Street projections for gains in 2010 may prove incorrect and prices will slump, he said. ...

El-Erian, whose firm manages $1 trillion from Newport Beach, California, said in a July 29 interview on CNBC that the rally in U.S. equities was a “sugar high” that wouldn’t be sustained by economic growth. The S&P 500 has climbed 13 percent since then. On Oct. 10, 2008, he said the “point of exhaustion” for the credit crisis was “far away.” The S&P 500 decreased 25 percent through March 9, falling in four of five months. ...

Pimco’s Bill Gross and El-Erian say investors should expect returns that trail the historical average because of more government regulation, lower consumption and a smaller role for the U.S. in the global economy. American gross domestic product may expand 2.7 percent in 2010 and 2.9 percent in 2011 as demand recovers from the first global recession since World War II, based on the median economist forecast from a Bloomberg survey.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aKp04HpeyeLU&pos=6
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54anickel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 07:51 AM
Response to Reply #12
23. This line speaks volumes to me - are they admitting there may have been some ill gotten gain here?
And what does the free-market, laissez-faire, anti-regulation screed say about our society? Damn having rules, just show us the money!!!! :puke:


"...investors should expect returns that trail the historical average because of more government regulation, lower consumption and a smaller role for the U.S. in the global economy."
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 06:48 AM
Response to Original message
16. FDIC Proposes Tough-Minded Securitization Reforms; Industry Howls
From Yves Smith:

As readers may know, the financial reforms proposed by the Obama administration barely deserve the name. The late-in-the-game efforts to rebrand the effort by putting Paul Volcker in the forefront and patch up one of the gaping holes, that the government is backstopping risky trading businesses (Goldman Sachs has issued FDIC guaranteed bonds) illustrates the typical Obama chasm between rhetoric and action.

So it was a pleasant surprise to learn that the FDIC presented a cogent and tough-minded plan for securtization reform at the American Securitization Forum. Surprisingly, I haven’t seen a write-up at my usual first stop for this sort of thing (Housing Wire) and a search of my RSS reader shows no posts on this “advanced proposal of new rulemaking” which was made public back in December. ...

In addition, this FDIC proposal supports two of my other pet theories. One is that it is possible for regulators to come up with effective reforms if they have the will. This is a cogent and well designed plan. Second is the FDIC is the only Federal banking overseer that takes regulation seriously (the SEC might have once upon a time; it might be possible for it to rebuild that skill. The Fed is beyond redemption here; it is dominated by monetary economists who not only don’t know what they don’t know, but also are unduly respectful of the wonders of financial markets. The FDIC, by contrast, is not overawed by banksters). ...

The FDIC proposed these major changes (these are high-level summaries; comments encouraged):
1. Mortgages must be seasoned 12 months before they can be securitized

2. The originator must retain at least a 5% interest in the credit risk of the assets sold

3. The interest of all parties to a transaction must clearly be disclosed, along with their fees

4. Re-securitizations (meaning CDOs) are not permitted (note a disconnect here; the e-mailed and verbal reports suggested they were banned entirely; the language at the FDIC website seems to indicate that they are allowed in limited circumstances, but any use of synthetic assets, meaning credit default swaps, in a asset-backed CDO is verboten)

5. Compensation to servicers will include incentives for loss mitigation
This is an elegant little list.

Go now and read.
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ozymandius Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 07:08 AM
Response to Original message
20. Enjoy your day, everyone.
I need to head for the door.

:hi:
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tclambert Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 08:22 AM
Response to Original message
25. That cartoon reminded me of the movie The In-Laws
--the funny version from 1979 with Peter Falk as CIA agent Vincent Ricardo, and Alan Arkin as dentist Sheldon Kornpett. The quote that relates to the cartoon:

Vince Ricardo: I was in the jungle - the bush we called it - for approximately nine months...
Sheldon: Nine months! That must have really been something!
Vince Ricardo: It was. I saw things... They have tsetse flies down there the size of eagles.


I think they went on with the tsetse flies carrying off little children and how tragic that was for the parents to watch. IMDB doesn't have the rest of that quote.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 08:44 AM
Response to Original message
26.  A Good Guy in D.C.?
http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2010/02/good-guy-in-dc.html

Edward DeMarco, the acting head of FHFA, wrote a letter to some heavy hitters in Washington. Sen. Dodd-Banking, Sen. Shelby-Banking, Congressman Frank-Financial Services and Bachus-Financial Services. The letter was a cry for help. I sincerely hope that these important legislators do not ignore this SOS. If they do, some irreversible damage will have been done. Hundreds of billions of dollars are at stake. Even more significant, the direction of the government's future role in the mortgage market is going to be shaped by the corporate Exec’s at Fannie and Freddie. There could not be a worse outcome.


DeMarco laid it all on the line. He described the terrible mess that Fannie and Freddie are in. His words: “These calls on taxpayer funds are troubling to all of us.”

There was a significant amount of information provided regarding all of the new management at F/F. Those that are dirty from the past are all gone. Both Fannie and Freddie have new private sector Boards of Directors that meet regularly. There was a discussion that it had been agreed that both F/F would not do anything “new”.

As I was reading this I was getting the sense that in some ways DeMarco was mocking the charade that is happening. We have two ‘private sector’ entities with all of the trappings of Boards and high priced corporate talent. And at the same time these two dogs are sucking down taxpayer money at the rate of $10B a month. Losses are now expected to exceed a half a trillion. Why do we need fancy Boards and big buck talent to accomplish that?

The important sentence comes in the summary:

“The only (alternative) FHFA may implement today under existing law is to reconstitute the two companies under their current law”

That is polite Washington speak. What Mr. DeMarco said between these lines was”

“If you guys don’t get off your ass and pass some new legislation I am going to be forced to take us down a road that we should not go down. I don’t have a choice in this. I think this is a big mistake. Please do something to stop this. I don’t want to be the guy that puts the mortgage giants on a path that will end very badly. We have made this mistake before with the GSEs. I don’t want to make it again. Please help, before it is too late”

Mr. DeMarco should have addressed this letter to Tim Geithner. Nothing can happen with the GSE’s without strong leadership from Treasury. And we have a nincompoop running the shop. On the urgent need to address the problems with the D.C. lenders Weak Tim said on NPR recently:

"I don't think we're going to be able to legislate that until that process can start, until next year, because it's just a complicated thing to get right."

This problem is too complicated for the current Treasury Secretary? The head of the FHFA is urgently calling for help; Congress is frozen over health care and the changing political reality. Where is the leadership that is needed? There is none. There is a reason for that and that reason needs to be addressed. This letter points to one of a dozen issues that need attention from an effective T.Sec.

Here’s a plan for Tim, Chris, Barney, Rich and Spence. Finish the job. The conservatorship is a joke and a private sector GSE approach has already proved a disaster. Privatize these dogs. Get it over with. Then merge the two of them. Create a good bank and a bad bank. Do what you have to with the bad bank and don’t ever, ever make the mistakes of the past with the good bank. Get rid of that high priced talent that is costing so much and doing so little. De-list these deadbeats. That would save $20mm a year. Get rid of those big Boards and their “do nothing new” meetings. And if you’re looking for someone to run this mess, consider Edward DeMarco. He’s the only one who has spoken the truth about the Agencies for years. Listen to him.
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Robbien Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 02:31 PM
Response to Reply #26
50. The Secretive "Blob" On Capitol Hill That's Blocking Any Hope Of Financial Reform
A secret club of current Senate staffers and Wall Street lobbyists is dragging down the chances for meaningful financial reform.

Staffers on the powerful Senate banking committee are part of what is known as "The Banking Blob," a person familiar with the matter told us. The Banking Blob is made up of current banking committee staffers and former staffers who are now bankers or lobbyists. They frequently socialize together, often organizing happy hours and parties.

"They move in a pack. They socialize together," the person says. "Hell. They even inter-marry."

The Blob is made up of both Republican and Democratic staffers. Outsiders tend to think the Blob members view themselves as "cooler" than other Capitol Hill staff members. Often a job on the banking committee leads to a well-paying job for a Wall Street firm or a position at a K-Street lobbyist law firm.

"The very worst example of the revolving door in Congress," is how the person described the Blob.

"The idea that these people would actually develop legislation that Wall Street opposes" is a joke, the person said. "They are genetically incapable of doing it."

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-secret-banking-blob-on-capitol-hill-that-destroys-the-possibility-of-financial-reform-2010-2

DeMarco doesn't have a chance against these cool kids. Get rid of high priced talent that does so little? Ha! these guys are vying to get those jobs for themselves.

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UpInArms Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 08:45 AM
Response to Original message
27. dollar watch


http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 79.048 Change +0.034 (+0.04%)

Daily Sound Bites 02.03

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/daily_sound_bites/2010-02-03-1206-Daily_Sound_Bites_02_03.html



...more...


Will Currency Markets ‘Smile’ on the US Dollar?

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/special_report/2010-02-03-1100-Will_Currency_Markets__Smile__on.html

The US Dollar is likely to rise against most major currencies in 2010 according to a "smiling" model of the greenback’s performance at the beginning, middle and conclusion of major recessions in the United States.

The ‘Dollar Smile’ Hypothesis

Intuitively, one would suppose that the US Dollar should decline if the United States falls into a deep recession as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates to stimulate economic growth, making the greenback unattractive relative to other currencies. However, a theory originally advanced by Stephen Jen, then an economist with Morgan Stanley, suggests something quite different. His logic goes as follows:

Phase 1: When the United States – the world’s largest economy and consumer market – falls into a deep recession, investors fearful that the downturn will spread globally sell off their holdings of risky assets (stocks, commodities) and move capital into the relative safety of cash and government bonds. The economic and geopolitical primacy of the United States along with the unmatched sophistication and liquidity its capital markets means that the cash and bonds of choice in this scenario are the Dollar and US Treasuries. This means that the greenback should rise if the US begins to experience a deep-enough recession to warrant fears of worldwide contagion.

Phase 2: As the pace of decline in economic activity invariably begins to slow, the markets become hopeful that the worst is over and capital begins to shift out of Dollar-denominated safe haven assets and back toward higher-risk and higher-return investments, sending US unit lower from its peak amid the crisis.

Phase 3: Finally, as economic recovery in the United States begins to gain momentum, investors start to speculate that the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates (which were surely lowered amid recession) to rein in building inflationary pressure, sending the US Dollar higher once again.

Broadly speaking, history seems to bear out Mr Jen’s hypothesis. As illustrated in the chart below, data going back to 1970 shows that the US Dollar Index (an average of the greenback’s value against six of its top counterparts) is higher when US Gross Domestic Product growth rates are either sharply above or below the average of other G7 nations; it is lower when the difference in growth rates declines, revealing a “convex” relationship or a “smile”:



...more...


now that is really stoopid
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 08:50 AM
Response to Original message
29. NYT Talks Global Power Without a Clue
http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/beat_the_press_archive?month=02&year=2010&base_name=nyt_talks_global_power_without



The NYT had an article on how the U.S. is likely to wane as a global power, without ever once mentioning the trade deficit. It even quoted Larry Summers, the head of President Obama's National Economic Council saying: "“How long can the world’s biggest borrower remain the world’s biggest power?” without mentioning the trade deficit.

If the United States government had a large budget deficit, but no trade deficit, then it would mean that the money was being borrowed domestically. In this story, the United States government could be the world's largest borrower, but it would mean that its population was the world's largest lender. What would matter in terms of its international position would be its relative rate of productivity growth (which has been respectable in recent years).

However, the United States has been running large and unsustainable trade deficits in recent years because of the over-valued dollar. The trade deficits, not the budget deficits, have caused the country to become the world's largest debtor that Mr. Summers complained about. If the dollar and GDP were both at their current levels and the budget was completely balanced, we would be borrowing just as much money from abroad as we are today. Failing to discuss either the trade deficit or the value of the dollar in this context was an enormous oversight.

--Dean Baker

COMMENTS (5)

It's still a really depressing budget. If we had Series EE savings bonds that paid 6% interest so that Americans were able to invest in them to finance the debt, I'd feel much better about it. It worked to pay off WWII. All that debt was financed by Americans.

Posted by: LJM | February 1, 2010 10:43 PM

Is there any causal relation between the budget deficit, private savings, and the trade deficit.

In my econ class we learned that they all equal zero, but I know that's just an accounting identify, not an explanatory model.

What would happen if politicians decided to balance the budget tomorrow? I know that would have a large contractionary effect. Would that simply play out as less investment, offsetting things and keeping the accounting identity balanced?

Or would that have any impact on the trade deficit?

Posted by: graeme | February 1, 2010 11:10 PM

The importance of ignoring the trade deficit in order to bring an end to "entitlements" as we know them and thus balance the budget on the backs of the lower orders cannot be overstated.

We are repeating the pattern seen toward the end of previous empires. We have learned nothing...

Posted by: bobbyp | February 2, 2010 12:27 AM

You speak of a "respectable" relative rate of productivity growth in recent years. But, given the skyrocketing rates of income and wealth maldistribution, isn't that little more than fewer people doing more work for less money?

Posted by: Michael Fiorillo | February 2, 2010 5:24 AM

No one really knows what the US trade deficit is. The numbers are a fuzzy guess at best. The US does not tax exports like other nations do, so doesn't reliably count exports. It is a best guess.

For instance, a ship full of cows may be priced in hamburger units. In the eighties when CDs where actually shipped instead of burned locally, a crate of CDs was priced in weight of plastics. (All those Micheal Jackson Thriller CDs or Windows software ones were priced at far less than a penny apiece.)

Shipments of raw goods like iron ore, or wheat can be reasonably factored by weight. But not finished goods. which are either not counted or priced to cheapest unit or weight of materials.

The trade gap figures have always been negative even when we export a lot. It isn't a number to worry about. Mainly because it isn't a real figure. If it was in some past years it would have definitely been positive. If it was an accurate number we'd all be speaking Chinese by now.

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 09:00 AM
Response to Original message
31. McKinsey Says Deleveraging Will Exert Drag on GDP Growth
International consulter Mc Kinsey is another mainstream thinking business that takes a seat in the orchestra of doom, fearing years of gloom:

The specter of deleveraging has been haunting the global economy since the credit crunch reached crisis proportions in 2008. The fear: an unwinding of unsustainable debt burdens will drag down growth rates for years to come. So far, reality has been more benign, with economic growth recovering sooner than expected in some countries, even though the financial sector is still cleaning up its balance sheets and consumer demand remains weak.
New research from the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), though, suggests that the deleveraging process may just be getting under way and is likely to exert a significant drag on GDP growth.1 Our study of debt and leverage2 in ten mature and four emerging economies3 indicates that some sectors of the economies of five countries—Canada, South Korea, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States—will very probably experience deleveraging.
What’s more, our analysis of deleveraging episodes since 1930 shows that virtually every major financial crisis after World War II was followed by a prolonged period in which the ratio of total debt to GDP declined significantly. The one exception was Japan, whose bursting asset bubbles in the early 1990s touched off a financial crisis followed by many years...

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 09:06 AM
Response to Reply #31
32. MSNBC Says Fed Showered Banks with $23.7 Trillion
http://prudentinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/02/msnbc-says-fed-showered-banks-with-237.html

The numbers in the American bank bailout charade are ballooning and MSM begin to take notice. MSNBC pushed the tally to $23.7 Trillion in secret handouts to banks who never stopped weighing up their exexcutives and dealmakers in gold at bonus time.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lDJc0PZV-Bk&feature=player_embedded

VIDEO: This video was uploaded to Youtube last weekend. Enjoy a rabid TV presenter accusing the Fed of handing out a stunning $23.7 Trillion to the poor banks. The story lacks an explanation as to how they arrived at this 14-digit estimate.
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Tansy_Gold Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 09:19 AM
Response to Reply #31
35. And what growth would that be?
As far as I'm concerned, an economy that is still shedding far more jobs than it's creating is not a "growing" economy.

But hey, what do I know?


I'm just



Tansy Gold
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InkAddict Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 09:08 AM
Response to Original message
33. Casino to loosen the slots (of time)
I didn't catch this yesterday here, but did you all see this from yesterday afternoon?


http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100202-713669.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines


NYSE To Change Regular Session Closing Procedures Feb. 22

For the first time in more than a decade, the New York Stock Exchange will change the way it winds down trading during the close of the regular session.

Beginning around Feb. 22, the targeted start date, the stock exchange will give traders five extra minutes to place unrestricted market-on-close and limit-on-close orders on any stock--until 3:45 p.m. EST. From then until the market closes at 4 p.m., the NYSE will publish every five seconds which stocks have buy or sell imbalances of 50,000 shares. Currently, the exchange only releases that information every five seconds during the last 10 minutes of trading and every 15 seconds between 3:40 and 3:50 p.m.

And traders submitting orders to offset that imbalance -- purchasing shares of a company with a sell imbalance, for instance--have a new option. While previously traders could only submit orders to correct the imbalance as it was first published by the NYSE, they can now freely submit buy or sell orders on the stocks in focus until the close, with the NYSE accepting the orders that balance out trading. Because heavy trading can sometimes flip whether a stock is being more aggressively bought or sold at the end of the day, the new "closing offset order" allows traders to help correct that imbalance if it changes several times before the close.

Additionally, traders will now have eight extra minutes--until 3:58 p.m.--to cancel any orders made in error.

The exchange said the changes are designed to better channel the last-minute orders that help reduce market volatility and provide additional data to market watchers.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 09:13 AM
Response to Original message
34. Tom Hoenig For Treasury
http://baselinescenario.com/2010/02/01/tom-hoenig-for-treasury/

The White House is floating, ever so gently, the notion that they are open to nominations for the position of “Tim Geithner’s Successor.”

It’s not clear if they mean this job is likely to be advertised formally sometime in 2012 or 20 minutes after the November midterms. Nor is it obvious if this is a real request for proposals – it could be just an effort to make critics “put up or shut up.”

Fortunately, there is an entirely plausible successor already in waiting, ready now or whenever the president finally realizes the need to fundamentally change banking policy.

Tom Hoenig, president of the Kansas City Fed, is best known for three things.

1. He’s currently the only senior Fed official who has been outspoken (or even spoken out) against banks that are undoubtedly Too Big To Fail (TBTF). Hoenig has been a beacon of clarity on this issue over the past year. Compared with central bank officials – and almost everyone else – Hoenig stands out as a model of straight thinking and a proponent of tough action. With his disarming but no nonsense approach, he is the perfect person to take on the likes of Lloyd Blankfein (Goldman Sachs) and Vikram Pandit (Citigroup) both in the corridors of power and in the nitty gritty of their rather sordid business models. Hoenig is a career bank supervisor and nobody’s fool. Blankfein and Pandit are just two more guys who run banks that have gone bad. You know how that movie ends.

2. Hoenig, who sits on the Federal Open Market Committee, is also an inflation hawk – at least by today’s standards. This makes some would be supporters – including fans of his attitude on TBTF – rather wary of advancing his name (e.g., as chairman of the Fed Board). This hesitation is understandable although likely mistaken; you don’t keep the federal funds rate essentially zero for long when nominal GDP is growing at more than a 6 percent annual rate. In any case, the issue is irrelevant for the Treasury job. The Treasury Secretary’s responsibility in a modern administration is to run financial sector policy, meaning bailouts and how to avoid them. Peter Orszag has the budget and Ben Bernanke (gulp) holds the monetary tiller. What we desperately need is someone who can sort out our largest banks.

3. Tom Hoenig is almost certainly a Republican, although – as head of a regional reserve bank – the full range of his views, outside of banking and money, are not widely known. Paul Krugman reasonably points out that if he (Krugman) were nominated for the Fed (or Treasury or anything else), this would likely run into trouble in the Senate. Hoenig is a completely different kettle of fish, appealing to sensible Democrats and Republicans – yes, there are a few – who increasingly worry about massive banks and their electoral implications. And while financial sector policy is job one, serious efforts to address the budget – led by people of all ilk with a strong grip on economic realities – also lie in our future. Either that or the republic will perish. Not a tough choice in the end, but it does need to involve at least a few Republicans.

There will be objections to be sure.

* He’s just a regional Fed governor. True, but so was Tim Geithner.
* He’ll be captured by Big Finance, just as Geithner was. Spend some time with Tom Hoenig before you jump to this conclusion.
* The market will react negatively, because it will sense the era of unlimited bailouts is drawing to a close. Sure, but that’s the point.
* He’s a Republican. See point 3 above, and remember that President Obama offered Senator Judd Gregg (R., New Hampshire) the position of Commerce Secretary at the beginning of his administration.

There’s also the question of whether Tom Hoenig would take the job. He doesn’t seek it and no doubt doesn’t need the hassle and the heartache.

So it would be a question of how he is asked and what powers he is given. With the right job description and enough protection from the very top, Hoenig is not the kind of person who shrinks from the opportunity to help his country back onto safer ground.

He’s not a politician and he’s not a banker. But he knows the politics of central banking and what bankers – of any size and kind – get up to.

Joe Kennedy, first head of the SEC, was by all accounts a poacher turned gamekeeper. Tim Geithner sees himself as a gamekeeper, but he is undone by the belief that the principal poachers are decent and honorable folk who mean no ill.

Tom Hoenig is just a plain spoken old-fashioned gamekeeper. Not many of them are left, but you only need one.

By Simon Johnson
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 09:42 AM
Response to Original message
36. axpayers Help Goldman Reach Height of Profit in New Skyscraper
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aaLwI2SKYQJg&pos=14

In the first six months of 2010, about 6,000 employees of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. will take a break from their spreadsheets and move across the southern tip of Manhattan to a new 43-story, steel-and-glass skyscraper.

The building was a bargain -- and not just because the final cost is expected to be $200 million less than the $2.3 billion price the company had estimated when construction began in November 2005. Goldman Sachs also benefited from the government’s determination to avoid losing jobs in lower Manhattan after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.

Building a new headquarters cater-cornered to where the World Trade Center once stood qualified the firm to sell $1 billion of tax-free Liberty Bonds and get about $49 million of job-grant funds, tax exemptions and energy discounts. Henry Paulson, then Goldman Sachs’s chief executive officer, threatened to abandon the project after delays in addressing his concerns about safety. To keep the plan on track, state and city officials raised the bond ceiling to $1.65 billion and added $66 million in benefits. The interest expense on the financing is about $175 million less over 30 years than if the company had issued corporate debt at the time, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“It was absolutely imperative that Goldman Sachs keep its world headquarters downtown,” says John Cahill, who took part in the negotiations as chief of staff to then-Governor George Pataki and now works at New York law firm Chadbourne & Parke LLP. “They had the financial resources to move anywhere.”

Unprecedented Aid

Goldman Sachs, which set a Wall Street profit record of $11.6 billion in 2007 and may have earned $11.4 billion this year, according to the average estimate of 15 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, won new and larger concessions from taxpayers in 2008. This time it was the threat of a financial meltdown that prompted the U.S. government, with Paulson as Treasury secretary, and the Federal Reserve to supply an unprecedented amount of aid to firms deemed critical to the financial system, including Goldman Sachs.

The 140-year-old company received $10 billion in capital, guarantees on about $30 billion of debt and the ability to borrow cheaply from the Fed. The Fed’s bailout of American International Group Inc., and its decision to pay the insurer’s counterparties in full, funneled an additional $12.9 billion to Goldman Sachs.

“What was done was appropriate because the potential costs of not doing that were probably exceedingly high,” says Gary Stern, who stepped down in August as president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. “It certainly looked very threatening.”

‘Bad Deal’

That’s not how the Goldman Sachs rescue looks to William Black, a professor of economics and law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City and a former bank regulator. He says the government has been far too generous in allowing the firm to get federal backing without either seizing equity or curbing risks.

“It’s just an unbelievably bad deal,” Black says. “We could hire any middle-tier guy or gal at Goldman, and they would tell us within 15 seconds that the deal we have made as a nation with Goldman is underpriced by many, many orders of magnitude and that we are insane.”

During the past year, Goldman Sachs’s profits and compensation outstripped those of its rivals. The firm, now the nation’s fifth-largest bank by assets, reported a record $8.44 billion in earnings for the first nine months of 2009 after setting aside $16.7 billion to pay employees. That comes to $527,192 for each person on the payroll, almost eight times the median U.S. household income.

Public Anger

The company’s stock is up 93 percent this year, above its price before Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed. Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate hit a 26-year high of 10.2 percent in October before dropping to 10 percent in November.

The perception that Goldman Sachs has profited at the expense of taxpayers has fueled public anger -- even jabs from the television comedy show “Saturday Night Live.” Rolling Stone writer Matt Taibbi described the firm this year as “a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity.” Conservative television commentator Glenn Beck devoted a 10- minute segment in July to diagramming Goldman Sachs’s connections to the government and arguing that taxpayers were being spun in “a web of lies.”

Bonus Plan

“People are just really angry; you can see it on the left and the right,” says Andy Stern, president of the 2.1 million- member Service Employees International Union, who led about 200 protesters outside Goldman Sachs’s Washington office on Nov. 16 to demand that the firm cancel its year-end bonuses and repay taxpayers instead. Some carried “Wanted” posters with pictures of Chairman and CEO Lloyd Blankfein.

The firm has made attempts to placate critics. On Nov. 17, it announced a five-year, $500 million program to provide education, capital and other forms of support to small businesses. On Dec. 10, it promised to pay the bonuses of the firm’s top 30 executives only in stock that they can’t sell for five years.

To Blankfein, the 55-year-old postal worker’s son who earned $68.5 million in 2007, the firm’s ability to generate profits and reward employees is a boon to society.

“Our shareholders are pensioners, mutual funds and individual investors, and they’re all taxpayers,” Blankfein told investors at a Nov. 10 conference hosted by Bank of America Corp. in New York. “The people of Goldman Sachs are one of the most productive workforces in the world.”

No ATMs

What Goldman Sachs’s workforce produces is different from what employees do at other financial institutions, leading some people to question why the firm is entitled to taxpayer support. It doesn’t operate branches or automated-teller machines. Only millionaires can open checking accounts. Instead, Goldman Sachs exists to serve large corporations, governments, institutions and wealthy individuals.

It makes money for them and for itself by trading assets ranging from stocks and bonds to oil futures and credit derivatives. In the first nine months of 2009, more than 90 percent of the company’s pretax earnings came from trading and principal investments, which include market bets, stakes in corporate debt and equity, and assets such as power plants.

“People who know the industry and know Goldman Sachs know that it is a giant hedge fund, but it’s wrapped in an investment banking wrapper,” says Samuel Hayes, a professor emeritus of investment banking at Harvard Business School in Boston. The public “would be horrified to think that their tax dollars were going to a hedge fund.”

Repaying TARP

Goldman Sachs repaid the $10 billion it received in October 2008 from the U.S. Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, and taxpayers got a return: $318 million in preferred dividends and $1.1 billion to cancel warrants to buy company stock the government was granted. Goldman Sachs says that’s a 23 percent annualized return for U.S. taxpayers, according to the firm’s calculation.

Other forms of support linger. By the end of September, Goldman Sachs’s $189.7 billion of long-term unsecured borrowings included $20.9 billion guaranteed by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. under a program started in October 2008 to unfreeze credit markets, according to the firm’s most recent quarterly filing. Most importantly, the Federal Reserve agreed on Sept. 21, 2008, to allow Goldman Sachs and smaller rival Morgan Stanley to become bank holding companies, giving them access to the Fed’s discount window and granting them a cheap source of borrowing traditionally reserved for commercial banks.

Interest Expense

“The issue that people have focused on -- TARP and the payback of TARP money -- is insignificant compared with the way they’ve been able to use federally guaranteed programs and their access to the Fed window,” says Peter Solomon, founder of New York-based investment bank Peter J. Solomon Co.

Those benefits, along with a drop in the Fed’s benchmark borrowing rate to as low as zero, have slashed Goldman Sachs’s interest costs to the lowest this decade, though its debt was higher in the first nine months of 2009 than in any comparable period except the previous two years. For those three quarters, the firm’s interest expense fell to $5.19 billion from $26.1 billion a year earlier.

“You can’t give a small group of firms this privilege, where they get free money from the Fed and a taxpayer guarantee and they can run the biggest hedge fund in the world,” Niall Ferguson, a professor of history at Harvard University and author of “The Ascent of Money: A Financial History of the World,” said at a Nov. 18 panel discussion in New York.

‘Using Your Money’

That view is shared by Solomon. “Everybody thinks they’re a bank, but they’re a hedge fund,” he says. “The difference is that this year they’re using your money to do it.”

Lucas van Praag, the partner responsible for the firm’s communications and the only Goldman Sachs executive willing to comment for this story, denies any similarity to hedge funds, the mostly private and unregulated pools of capital that managers use to buy or sell assets while participating in the profits.

“The assertion that we’re a hedge fund displays a substantial misunderstanding of our business,” says van Praag, 59, a British-born former public relations executive who joined Goldman Sachs after it went public in 1999. “We are in business primarily to facilitate transactions for our clients, and over 90 percent of our revenue and earnings come from doing that.”

Proprietary Trading

Proprietary trading, in which Goldman Sachs employees make bets with the company’s own money, has contributed only 12 percent of the firm’s revenue since 2003, van Praag says. Still, fixed-income, currency, commodity and some equity trading that takes place off exchanges blurs the line between client-driven transactions and proprietary wagers, says Brad Hintz, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York who rates Goldman Sachs stock “outperform.”

“It’s coming onto my balance sheet, I’m owning it and then I’m selling it,” Hintz says. “The fact that I’m taking a position means I’m taking risk, and if I’m taking risk, then I’m taking a proprietary bet.”

If Goldman Sachs agrees to buy $1 billion of mortgages that a client wants to sell and then decides to keep the mortgages, it’s not easy to determine whether that trade is aimed at helping a client or is a proprietary investment decision, Hintz says.

Van Praag says that Goldman Sachs, unlike some other banks, was never in imminent danger of going out of business during the financial crisis unless the entire system was allowed to implode.

‘We Didn’t Wait’

“We had cash and funding that would have allowed us to survive for quite a long time, even assuming that counterparties had decided to stop providing financing,” van Praag says. “When markets became very difficult, we didn’t wait for the government to act. We went out and raised money in the private sector.”

Two days after winning the Fed’s approval to become a bank holding company, Goldman Sachs sold $5 billion of preferred stock to billionaire Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. and then raised another $5.75 billion by selling common stock to the public. Those deals, plus a $5.75 billion public offering in April 2009, helped raise shareholder equity to $65.4 billion from $45.6 billion in August 2008.

Goldman Sachs also cut the amount of assets it owns to $882 billion from $1.08 trillion before the Lehman collapse. The firm holds $167 billion in cash or near-cash instruments, up from about $102 billion at the end of August 2008, which it can use to pay off debts if creditors stop making loans.

‘Classic Bank Run’

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Dec. 4 that no bank would have survived without the government’s help.

“The entire U.S. financial system and all the major firms in the country, and even small banks across the country, were at that moment at the middle of a classic run -- a classic bank run,” he said.

Since the government stepped in, investors have been more willing to lend money to Goldman Sachs. The premium bondholders charge to own the firm’s bonds that mature in April 2018 instead of U.S. Treasuries of the same maturity has shrunk to less than 1.5 percentage points from as much as 6.8 percentage points on Nov. 20, 2008, according to data compiled by Trace, the bond- price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. The spread isn’t as narrow as the 0.99 percentage point premium to Treasuries that Goldman paid on new 10-year bonds in January 2006, the data show.

‘Backstopped’

At an Oct. 15 breakfast sponsored by Fortune magazine, Blankfein said that market prices prove that investors don’t think the bank has a government guarantee.

“We’re not exactly borrowing at the government rate,” he said. “The market isn’t behaving that way.”

Sean Egan -- co-founder of Haverford, Pennsylvania-based Egan-Jones Ratings Co., which in October gave Goldman Sachs an AA rating, its third highest -- has a different view.

“We’re in the business of doing credit analysis, and we’ve come to the conclusion that essentially Goldman Sachs is backstopped,” Egan says.

William Larkin, who manages about $250 million in fixed- income investments at Cabot Money Management Inc. in Salem, Massachusetts, says he owns Goldman Sachs bonds partly because he thinks the company won’t be allowed to go out of business.

“They would be bailed out” if anything went wrong, Larkin says. “Goldman right now is in a catbird seat because it’s very important to keep them healthy.”

Fewer Competitors

Chief Financial Officer David Viniar takes issue with the idea that the firm continues to benefit from an implied guarantee by the U.S. government.

“We operate as an independent financial institution that stands on our own two feet,” Viniar, 54, told reporters on an Oct. 15 conference call. “We don’t think we have a guarantee.”

The firm has grown more dominant in the past year, increasing its market share, Viniar told analysts on Oct. 15. It has benefited from having fewer competitors -- Bear Stearns Cos., Merrill Lynch & Co. and Lehman Brothers were all subsumed into other banks during the financial crisis -- while larger rivals such as Citigroup Inc. and UBS AG have been hobbled by writedowns and a lower appetite for risk.

“The crisis has created an oligopoly,” says Solomon, who founded his firm in 1989 after leaving Lehman Brothers.

Value-at-Risk

Goldman Sachs has also increased the size of the bets it’s making. Its value-at-risk -- an estimate of how much the trading desk could lose in a single day -- jumped to an average of $231 million in the first nine months of 2009, a record for the firm. At the end of September, the company estimated that a 10 percent drop in corporate equity held by its merchant-banking funds would cost it $1.04 billion, up from $987 million at the end of June.

Revenue generated by trading and investing, the most unpredictable part of Goldman Sachs’s business, accounted for 79 percent of the firm’s revenue in the first nine months of 2009, up from 28 percent in 1998. Early the next year, before Goldman Sachs’s initial public offering, executives, led by Paulson, told investors the company would try to decrease the percentage.

The government is acting schizophrenically by arguing that Goldman Sachs needs taxpayer support because it poses a risk to the financial system at the same time as it’s failing to do anything to curtail that risk, says Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, who teaches at Columbia University in New York.

“We say they’re too big to fail, but we refuse to do anything about their being too big to fail,” Stiglitz says. “We say that they represent systemic risk, but we don’t regulate them effectively.”

‘Biggest Single Gift’

Stiglitz also points to the Fed’s $182.3 billion AIG bailout as an example of how policy has been tilted to support Goldman Sachs.

“The biggest single gift was the AIG rescue,” he says. “No one has ever provided a good argument for why we did it other than we were bailing out Goldman Sachs.”

On Sept. 16, 2008, a day after Lehman filed the biggest bankruptcy in U.S. history, the Fed authorized Geithner, then president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, to lend $85 billion to help AIG avoid a similar fate by allowing it to continue to post collateral owed on contracts and to settle securities-lending agreements. Geithner later told a Congressional Oversight Panel that the government acted because “the entire system was at risk.”

$12.9 Billion

In November, the Fed created two entities: Maiden Lane II to repurchase securities that had been lent out in return for cash, and Maiden Lane III to purchase collateralized-debt obligations so AIG could cancel the credit-default swaps, similar to insurance policies, it had written on them. In the latter program, the Fed allowed the counterparties to settle contracts at 100 percent of their value.

Goldman Sachs was the biggest beneficiary, receiving a total of $12.9 billion in cash, consisting of $5.6 billion to cancel insurance on CDOs, $4.8 billion to repurchase securities and $2.5 billion of collateral.

If Goldman Sachs and AIG’s other counterparties hadn’t been paid off in full by the Fed, they might have taken losses on their contracts.

Other bond insurers had canceled agreements by paying less than par. Merrill Lynch accepted $500 million from Security Capital Assurance Ltd. in late July 2008 to tear up contracts guaranteeing $3.7 billion of CDOs. On Aug. 1, 2008, Citigroup agreed to accept $850 million from bond insurer Ambac Financial Group Inc. to cancel a guarantee on a $1.4 billion CDO.

Barofsky Report

In a Nov. 16 report on the AIG bailout, Neil Barofsky, special inspector general for TARP, said the Fed tried for two days to negotiate with counterparties, an effort that failed because the Fed felt obliged to make any discounts voluntary and because French counterparties said they couldn’t legally be required to comply. Goldman Sachs refused to negotiate because it felt it was hedged if AIG failed to pay, Barofsky wrote.

“Notwithstanding the additional credit protection it received in the market, Goldman Sachs (as well as the market as a whole) received a benefit from Maiden Lane III and the continued viability of AIG,” Barofsky wrote. Goldman Sachs would have been saddled with the risk of further declines in the market value of about $4.3 billion in CDOs as well as some $5.5 billion of CDSs, he added.

‘Fascination With AIG’

Viniar, who held a conference call in March to answer questions about the firm’s relationship with AIG, said Goldman Sachs didn’t need a bailout because the firm’s hedges meant it faced no significant losses if AIG failed.

“I am mystified by this fascination with AIG,” he said in an interview in April. “In the context of Goldman Sachs, they’re one of thousands and thousands of counterparties, and the results of any trading with AIG are completely immaterial to what we do. Always have been, and always will be.”

Suspicions that the fix was in for Goldman Sachs have been fanned by the firm’s political connections.

Paulson worked at the company for 32 years, the last eight of them as CEO, before becoming Treasury secretary in 2006. Geithner selected former Goldman Sachs lobbyist Mark Patterson to serve as his chief of staff at Treasury. Stephen Friedman, a former senior partner who serves on the company’s board, stepped down as chairman of the New York Fed in May amid controversy over his purchases of the firm’s shares in December 2008 and January 2009 after it became a bank holding company regulated by the Fed. Geithner and Lawrence Summers, President Barack Obama’s National Economic Council director, worked earlier in their careers under former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, who was once co-chairman of Goldman Sachs. Geithner’s successor as New York Fed president is William Dudley, a former chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs.

Political Contributions

Goldman Sachs and its employees have donated $31.4 million to U.S. political parties since 1989, more than any other financial institution and the fourth-highest amount of any organization, according to the Center for Responsive Politics, a Washington research group.

Regulators and lawmakers are attempting to make changes that they say will protect taxpayers in the future. One proposal being considered by the U.S. Congress is to require financial institutions whose failure could cause a breakdown of the entire system to hold more liquid assets and a larger buffer of capital to help absorb losses.

The bill would also empower regulators to step in and liquidate a major financial institution, or merge it with another, rather than bail it out or let it collapse.

Safety Net

That’s not enough for Paul Volcker, the former Fed chairman who serves as an economic adviser to Obama. Volcker, 82, has argued that the government safety net should be limited to financial institutions that provide utilitylike services such as deposit taking and business-payment processing essential to economic functioning. All risk-taking functions should be done separately, he says.

“I do not think it reasonable that public money --taxpayer money -- be indirectly available to support risk-prone capital market activities simply because they are housed within a commercial-banking organization,” Volcker said in a Sept. 16 speech at a conference in California.

Asked about Goldman Sachs in a Dec. 11 interview in Berlin, Volcker said, “They can do trading and do anything they want, but then they shouldn’t have access to the safety net.”

Black, the former bank regulator, agrees.

“The answer is not to give these guarantees but to make sure there are no more systemically dangerous institutions,” he says. “They shouldn’t be allowed to grow, and of course, that’s what they’re doing right now. They’re mostly growing like crazy.”

Ground Zero

On a cold, rainy morning in December, rust-colored beams poke above a fence that surrounds the construction pit at Ground Zero in lower Manhattan. Across West Street, workers in yellow slickers are landscaping the strips that separate the entrance to Goldman Sachs’s new headquarters from the highway. In the lobby, a brightly colored abstract painting by Ethiopian- American artist Julie Mehretu, which cost about $5 million, greets employees who have already relocated.

The new building has twice as much space and costs 14 times as much as Goldman Sachs’s old headquarters a half mile (0.8 kilometer) away. Two American flags the size of bed sheets dominate the stone and concrete facade of the 30-story building at 85 Broad St., constructed almost three decades ago when Goldman Sachs was a private partnership with about 2,700 employees in New York.

In 1983, the year the firm moved in, it had pretax earnings of $462 million, one-twenty-fifth of what it made in 2007.

While Goldman Sachs has outgrown its old headquarters, one thing hasn’t changed: It’s still getting subsidies to remain in lower Manhattan. When it built 85 Broad St., the company received about $9 million in incentives to stay, according to a press report at the time. Now, it’s getting $115 million -- an amount dwarfed by the funds U.S. taxpayers provided in the heat of the 2008 financial crisis.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 09:46 AM
Response to Reply #36
38. Front-Running the Markets And the Sickness Unto Death
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/01/front-running-markets.html


"And that is the nature of Goldman. Gather up as many customers as possible, aggregate the available information to achieve a superior market view and then relentlessly extract rents from the marketplace. Better yet, tell yourself you’re smarter than everyone else and you’ve earned the rents from the symbiosis."

James Rickards, former General Counsel of Long Term Capital Management


This is a nice, concise, albeit somewhat simplified description, from a more mainstream and highly credible source, of how the markets are operating today to the extreme disadvantage of the public and the real economy. Between front-running and naked short selling the banks have things pretty well under their control.

The market makers are the Wall Street banks are the prop trading desks, trading at high frequency slightly ahead of the markets while peeking into your accounts, gaining just enough unfair advantage to defy the odds of winning and losing in a fairly regulated market.

From James Rickards, The Frog, The Scorpion, and Goldman Sachs:

"Now consider another example of data mining, not done by retail firms, but by giant investment banks such as Goldman Sachs. These banks have thousands of customers transacting in trillions of dollars in stocks, bonds, commodities and foreign exchange daily. By using systems with anodyne names like SecDB, Goldman not only sees the transaction flows but some of the outright positions and whether they are bullish or bearish. Data mining techniques are just as effective for this market information as they are for Google, Amazon, Wal-Mart and others. It’s not necessary to access individual accounts to be useful. The data can be aggregated so that the bank can look at positions on a portfolio basis without knowing the name of each customer.

One need not be a market expert to imagine the power of this information. You can see which way the winds are blowing before the storm hits. You get a sense of when momentum is draining out of a trade so you can get out of it before the market turns. You can see when bullish or bearish sentiment reaches extremes, suggesting it may soon turn the other way. This use of information is the ultimate type of insider trading because it does not break the law; you are not stealing the information, you own it.

So what do Goldman and others do with this mountain of market information? Do they send coupons to customers or text them with great trading ideas? A few lucky customers, usually giant hedge funds, may get a call on some insights, but this mountain of immensely valuable market information is used mainly to power their giant proprietary trading desks allowing them to rack up consistent excess returns. Economists have a name for this also. It’s called “rent seeking,” which means taking value from others without any contribution to productivity. The difference between value-added behavior and rent seeking is like the difference between Amazon trying to sell me a book or planning to steal my library. In nature, the name for a rent seeker is parasite.

The ideal existence for a parasite is symbiosis, or balance, where it offers some minimal service to the host, (some parasites devour insects which annoy the host), while extracting as much sustenance from the host as possible without killing it. But sometimes the symbiosis is disturbed and the parasite takes too much and actually destroys the host, which can end up destroying the parasite as well. This recalls the fable of the scorpion and the frog. Both are on the edge of a river looking for a way to cross. The scorpion cannot swim and asks the frog for a ride on its back. The frog at first says, “no,” for fear of being stung. But the scorpion assures the frog it will not sting him because they would both drown. The frog agrees to carry the scorpion. Once they reach the middle of the river, the scorpion stings the frog and they begin to drown. The frog cries, “why did you do that?” and the scorpion replies, “it’s my nature.”

And that is the nature of Goldman. Gather up as many customers as possible, aggregate the available information to achieve a superior market view and then relentlessly extract rents from the marketplace. Better yet, tell yourself you’re smarter than everyone else and you’ve earned the rents from the symbiosis."


How does it continue? Like the bailout of AIG, the stewards of the public trust are choosing to turn a blind eye. The politicians are the beneficiaries of huge campaign contributions. The regulators are overwhelmed, and desirous of Wall Street positions. The other traders are jackals, seeking to follow the lions as they tear into the flocks of sheep and cattle. The economists are timid, adverse to anything but painfully granular analysis of carcasses of other people's ideas and orthogonal scenarios.

"Worse yet, the parasite is now killing the host. The United States is drowning in debt, much of it incurred to bail out Goldman, AIG, GMAC, Fannie Mae and all of the other rent seekers. The U.S. is like the frog; well meaning but blind to nature of scorpions.

Wall Street likes to say, “what’s good for Wall Street is good for Main Street.” That’s the scorpion talking. What’s good for Wall Street is good for Wall Street. Never forget it."

The financial system did not need to be saved by bailouts, it needs to be saved from itself. Their insatiable greed, monstrous appetites, and arrogant pride will take them over the cliff.

Which would not be bad in itself, if our governments had not made us hostage to their reckless schemes, and if we, in our resignation and despair, do not allow them to take us with them.
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DoBotherMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 11:36 AM
Response to Reply #36
48. ugh
That is all I can say, too painful to comment. Dana ; )
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 09:44 AM
Response to Original message
37. Social unrest 'on the rise' in China
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8425119.stm

The country is grappling with more acute social problems than ever before, according to a report from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

Crime is also up, despite a nationwide campaign to shore up social stability.

Although continued economic growth has provided a greater number of jobs, China has seen more social conflict in 2009 than before.

The report on China's social trends sounds a stark warning to policy makers.

The authors believe deep resentment has been accumulating over the past few decades against unfairness and power abuses by government officials at various levels.

They quote six large-scale popular protests - from taxi strikes to unrest in central China in June - involving tens of thousands of people.

This does not include the rioting in the north-western region of Xinjiang, where nearly 200 people were killed in early July.

Urban-rural gap

There has been more crime too - official figures for January to October 2009 show more than four million recorded criminal cases, an increase of about 15% above last year.

The report admits some of China's policies have prevented more people from sharing the benefits of the economic development.

The urban-rural income gap, for example, has become even bigger and the country's phenomenal GDP growth has been achieved at the expense of the rural population, the environment and overall social cohesion.

The report is a damning indictment on the authorities' slogan of building a harmonious society.

But there is one ray of hope in the report - while the Chinese authorities are taking tighter control over the media, people are turning more and more to the internet to expose official failings and abuses.

In the past 12 months, nearly a third of the top stories originated from the internet, pushing the boundaries of press freedom.
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 09:49 AM
Response to Original message
39. White House Whitewash: Can the Agribusiness Lobby Kill Small, Organic Dairy Farmers?
http://politicsoftheplate.com/?p=223

On some bureaucrat’s desk in President Obama’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB), sits a document that has the power to either destroy the nation’s 1,800 family-operated organic dairy farms or come to their rescue.

In the early 2000s, virtually all of the nation’s organic dairy farmers—not to mention the millions of consumers willing to pay a premium for organic products—agreed that milk certified as organic by the United States Department of Agriculture had to come from cows that had access to pasture.

As government regulations go, it sounds pretty straightforward: room to roam, clean air to breathe, fresh grass to eat. And that was the general consensus on what the National Organic Standards required.

But beginning in the mid-2000s, at about the time when it became evident that the green “USDA Organic” label translated into bigger profits, huge Confined Animal Feeding Operations (CAFOs) with herds of up to 10,000 cows located in western states got into the organic milk business.

There was one obvious problem. How do you provide pasture for thousands of hungry cows in a semi-arid landscape that would, at best, produce enough feed for a few dozen animals?

The answer, according to Mark Kastel, co-founder of the Cornucopia Institute, an advocacy group for organic family farms based in Wisconsin, is that the corporations that owned the CAFO’s did everything they could to muddy the definition of “access to pasture.”

In some cases, a narrow, grassless strip outside the vast barns in which the animals were kept was considered “pasture” because some hay had been spread there. National Organic Standard Board (NOSB) allowances for cows and their very young calves to be kept indoors for a short period after birth were twisted to include all milking cows being kept inside 24/7 for 310 days a year.

Just take a quick glance at these photographs from Cornucopia and draw your own conclusions about whether this method of farming looks organic.

Either through bureaucratic lassitude or willful neglect, the big producers were helped every step of the way by USDA officials. “Between 2000 and 2008, they basically sat back and did nothing,” said Kastel in an interview.

Well, maybe not exactly nothing. After being prodded by complaints from Cornucopia, the USDA finally declared that the Aurora Dairy Corp. of Boulder Colo., which milked as many as 19,000 cows, was in “willful” violation of 14 tenets of the federal organic standards—the milk it was selling as organic was not. Aurora was allowed to modify its methods and continue selling milk that passes for “organic.”

Naturally, the handful of huge CAFOs milking in excess of 2,000 cows each, with their economies of scale, drove down the price of organic milk and increased their share of the market to at least 30 percent. Combined with a drop in demand, it was a disaster for the 1,800 family-operated organic dairies in the country (who typically tend between 60 and 100 milking cows and actually have pastures), many of whom had gone to the expense of converting to organic when the bottom fell out of the market for conventional milk products. “Today we have small organic farmers going out of business all the time,” said Kastel, who tells a tragic story of one desperate dairyman who went into his barn, shot all of his cows, and then committed suicide.

After years of official haggling, the USDA has finally produced a new set of regulations for organic milk production. The exact terms remain undisclosed, but Miles McEvoy, the newly appointed Deputy Administrator of the USDA’s National Organic Program, has assured Kastel that the new rules will be in line with an understanding organic producers arrived at by consensus in the early 2000s: Milk cows will graze on pasture for the entire growing season, or for at least 120 days in areas of inclement weather, getting 30% of their food from pasture.

That ruling now awaits OMB approval. And guess who has been lobbying hard to “sway the Obama administration,” according to the Organic Consumers Association? None other than Aurora Dairy (whose chairman Mark Retzloff and his wife, Theresa, contributed $4,600 to the 2008 presidential campaign of Thomas Vilsack, the current head of the USDA, according to Campaignmoney.com) “That level of donor historically buys access,” said Kastel.

He added, “Our biggest fear is that they will water this thing down. We’ve spent 10 years battling about this point. Now it’s all up to the stroke of a pen by someone in the Obama administration who is probably not an expert on this.”

Both the Cornucopia Institute and the Organic Consumers Association have initiated write-in campaigns to persuade the administration to make sure organic dairy cows in this country continue to do what cows do best: convert fresh grass into wholesome milk.

Should you feel inclined to let the folks in the White House know your feelings on the matter, here are the links: SEE ORIGINAL FOR ALL SUPPORTING LINKS
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 09:56 AM
Response to Original message
40. Paul Farrell: 20 reasons Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon
Edited on Wed Feb-03-10 09:58 AM by DemReadingDU
2/2/10

20 reasons Global Debt Time Bomb explodes soon
Commentary: Which trigger will ignite the Great Depression II?
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch

Yes, 20. And yes, any one can destroy your retirement because all 20 are inexorably linked, a house-of-cards, a circular firing squad destined to self-destruct, triggering the third great Wall Street meltdown of the 21st century, igniting the Great Depression II that George W. Bush, Ben Bernanke, Henry Paulson and now President Obama have simply delayed with their endless knee-jerk, debt-laden wars, stimulus bonanzas and bailouts.
.
.
The 20 economic weapons of mass destruction triggering ticking Global Debt Time Bomb

1. Federal Budget Deficit Bomb.

2. U.S. Foreign Trade Bomb.

3. Weakening U.S. Dollar as Foreign Reserve Currency Bomb.

4. Cheap Money Bomb: Credit Ratings Down, Rates Up.

5. Global Real Estate Bomb.

6. Peak Oil and the Population Bomb.

7. Social Security Bomb.

8. Medicare: A Nuclear Bomb.
.
.
Historians and behavioral economists tell us most investors are blind optimists. Investors cannot see bubbles from inside their bubble. Nor Fat Cat Bankers from inside their mega-bonus-bubble. Nor politicians from inside the beltway bubble.

Why? The optimist's brain filters out bad news. They know their dreams of prosperity will come true. Then, when they finally do see that the proverbial light at the end of the tunnel is an oncoming train, it's always too late.

I will say it again, gently: A new meltdown is coming. The Great Depression II is coming, soon. And yet, I know your mental filters are working, blocking warnings of a bomb. I can even hear you calling me "the fool on the hill who sees the sun going down, the world spinning round" ... sees you kissing your retirement goodbye.

Click to read the rest of the list...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/our-debt-time-bomb-is-ready-to-go-ka-boom-2010-02-02


edit
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hrx_Dc-jbOo

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 09:56 AM
Response to Original message
41. BofA push for 2,000 more retail brokers
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/fa3a52a2-104e-11df-841f-00144feab49a.html

Bank of America wants to return Merrill Lynch’s “thundering herd” of retail brokers to full strength by adding as many as 2,000 people to its global wealth management division during the next year.

People close to the situation said BofA’s aggressive hiring target would be fulfilled largely by training rookie brokers rather than launching a costly price war for talent of the kind that has often hit profits at US wealth management groups.

The decision to boost the ranks with younger, less experienced recruits underlines BofA’s desire to keep pay expenses in check. But the move could also make it more difficult for the company to service wealthy investors.

Marrying Merrill’s vast US network of brokers with BofA’s nationwide retail and commercial bank was one of the main drivers of the lender’s decision to bid $50bn for Merrill at the height of the financial crisis in 2008.

The herd, widely viewed as a jewel in Merrill’s crown, had thinned from 18,000 to 15,000 by June as some star brokers jumped to rivals and the combined company encouraged its lower-producing advisers to move on.

After stemming that exodus, BofA is looking to add capacity largely by revamping Merrill’s highly rated training programme rather than through an expensive hiring spree from rivals such as Morgan Stanley Smith Barney – a joint venture between Morgan Stanley and Citigroup – and from UBS.

Most additions will be made in the US, where Merrill’s trainee programme has long been recognised as a leader in the industry, with much smaller numbers added in Europe and Asia.

Wealth management companies have often competed to lure star brokers with big pay packages, raising pay in the industry and cutting overall profitability.

“It is a worldwide effort, not just in the US, and is a lot more about training than recruiting big, expensive brokers,” said a person familiar with the situation.

BofA declined to comment.

Strengthening the bank’s wealth management business to target the 17m “mass affluent” customers that BofA already counts as clients – as well as the millions more who are customers elsewhere – is an important part of the bank’s strategy in the aftermath of the financial crisis.

“Mass affluent” customers are usually defined as people with between $100,000 and $1m in investable assets. BofA brought in Sallie Krawcheck, former head of Citi’s wealth management business, in August to spearhead the recruitment campaign.

Merrill’s brokerage division reported a 22 per cent annual rise in net income in 2009 to $1.5bn, while at the global wealth management division, which includes two other US businesses, net income jumped from $1.4bn in 2008 to $2.5bn.

Senior figures at the bank cite the need for financial advice among wealthy people as the main rationale for expansion at a time when the economic outlook remains uncertain on both sides of the Atlantic.

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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 09:58 AM
Response to Reply #41
42. I Wonder If I Should Put My Younger Daughter Onto This
She is a stunning platinum blonde, and would bedazzle clients with her physical presence. I understand from talking with drug representatives and brokers and such, this has more effect than anything else.

I wonder what kind of credentials she would need....
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 10:12 AM
Response to Original message
43. Toyota sales suffer in the US (Quelle surprise!)
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3691d25e-1048-11df-841f-00144feab49a.html

Toyota’s US sales sank 16 per cent in January from a year earlier as the carmaker acknowledged safety defects in millions of its vehicles, while Ford and General Motors saw sales rise.

Ford’s sales rose by 25 per cent, recapturing its traditional number-two slot from Toyota, while GM’s sales increased by 14 per cent. The improved results from the two US carmakers were partly because of sharply higher sales to car-rental operators and other fleet owners.

Toyota has recalled 2.3m vehicles in the US and suspended sales of eight models with potentially sticky accelerator pedals. It has closed five assembly lines this week.

Ray LaHood, US transportation secretary, said on Tuesday that the agency had not finished reviewing Toyota vehicle defects. He said: “While Toyota is taking responsible action now, it unfortunately took enormous effort to get to this point.”

The US is also considering civil penalties against Toyota for its handling of the recalls, Bloomberg News reported.

...Several of Toyota’s rivals, including GM, Ford and Hyundai, have tried to capitalise on its woes by offering a $1,000 rebate to buyers trading in a Toyota.

Mike DiGiovanni, GM’s sales analyst, estimated that Toyota’s woes had cost the industry about 25,000 units in lost sales last month. Sales of the Camry saloon, the US’s top selling car, slumped by 24 per cent.



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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 10:29 AM
Response to Original message
44. Video: Goldman and Morgan Stanley were this close to bankruptcy
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 10:31 AM
Response to Original message
45. Tiger Woods, Person of the Year by FRANK RICH
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/20/opinion/20rich.html?_r=1

AS we say farewell to a dreadful year and decade, this much we can agree upon: The person of the year is not Ben Bernanke, no matter how insistently Time magazine tries to hype him into its pantheon. The Fed chairman was just as big a schnook as every other magical thinker in Washington and on Wall Street who believed that housing prices would go up in perpetuity to support an economy leveraged past the hilt. Unlike most of the others, it was Bernanke’s job to be ahead of the curve. Yet as recently as June of last year he could be found minimizing the possibility of a substantial economic downturn. And now we’re supposed to applaud him for putting his finger in the dike after disaster struck? This is defining American leadership down.

If there’s been a consistent narrative to this year and every other in this decade, it’s that most of us, Bernanke included, have been so easily bamboozled. The men who played us for suckers, whether at Citigroup or Fannie Mae, at the White House or Ted Haggard’s megachurch, are the real movers and shakers of this century’s history so far. That’s why the obvious person of the year is Tiger Woods. His sham beatific image, questioned by almost no one until it collapsed, is nothing if not the farcical reductio ad absurdum of the decade’s flimflams, from the cancerous (the subprime mortgage) to the inane (balloon boy)...
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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 10:36 AM
Response to Original message
46. Understanding Obamacare By Luke Mitchell MUST READ!
http://www.harpers.org/archive/2009/12/0082740

The idea that there is a competitive “private sector” in America is appealing, but generally false. No one hates competition more than the managers of corporations. Competition does not enhance shareholder value, and smart managers know they must forsake whatever personal beliefs they may hold about the redemptive power of creative destruction for the more immediate balm of government intervention. This wisdom is expressed most precisely in an underutilized phrase from economics: regulatory capture.

When Congress created the first U.S. regulatory agency, the Interstate Commerce Commission, in 1887, the railroad barons it was meant to subdue quickly recognized an opportunity. “It satisfies the popular clamor for a government supervision of railroads at the same time that that supervision is almost entirely nominal,” observed the railroad lawyer Richard Olney. “Further, the older such a commission gets to be, the more inclined it will be found to take the business and railroad view of things. It thus becomes a sort of barrier between the railroad corporations and the people and a sort of protection against hasty and crude legislation hostile to railroad interests.” As if to underscore this claim, Olney soon after got himself appointed to run the U.S. Justice Department, where he spent his days busting railroad unions.

The story of capture is repeated again and again, in industry after industry, whether it is the agricultural combinations creating an impenetrable system of subsidies, or television and radio broadcasters monopolizing public airwaves for private profit, or the entire financial sector conjuring perilous fortunes from the legislative void. The real battle in Washington is seldom between conservatives and liberals or the right and the left or “red America” and “blue America.” It is nearly always a more local contest, over which politicians will enjoy the privilege of representing the interests of the rich.

And so it is with health-care reform. The debate in Washington this fall ought to have been about why the United States has the worst health-care system in the developed world, why Americans pay twice the Western average to maintain that system, and what fundamental changes are needed to make the system better serve us. But Democrats rendered those questions academic when they decided the first principle of reform would be, as Barack Obama has so often explained, that “nothing in our plan requires you to change what you have.”

This claim reassured not just the people who like their current employment benefits but also the companies that receive some part of the more than $2 trillion Americans spend every year on health care and that can expect to continue receiving their share when the current round of legislation has come to an end. The health-care industry has captured the regulatory process, and it has used that capture to eliminate any real competition, whether from the government, in the form of a single-payer system, or from new and more efficient competitors in the private sector who might have the audacity to offer a better product at a better price.

The polite word for regulatory capture in Washington is “moderation.” Normally we understand moderation to be a process whereby we balance the conservative-right-red preference for “free markets” with the liberal-left-blue preference for “big government.” Determining the correct level of market intervention means splitting the difference. Some people (David Broder, members of the Concord Coalition) believe such an approach will lead to the wisest policies. Others (James Madison) see it only as the least undemocratic approach to resolving disputes between opposing interest groups. The contemporary form of moderation, however, simply assumes government growth (i.e., intervention), which occurs under both parties, and instead concerns itself with balancing the regulatory interests of various campaign contributors. The interests of the insurance companies are moderated by the interests of the drug manufacturers, which in turn are moderated by the interests of the trial lawyers and perhaps even by the interests of organized labor, and in this way the locus of competition is transported from the marketplace to the legislature. The result is that mediocre trusts secure the blessing of government sanction even as they avoid any obligation to serve the public good. Prices stay high, producers fail to innovate, and social inequities remain in place.

No one today is more moderate than the Democrats. Indeed, the triangulating work that began two decades ago under Bill Clinton is reaching its apogee under the politically astute guidance of Barack Obama. “There are those on the left who believe that the only way to fix the system is through a single-payer system like Canada’s,” Obama noted (correctly) last September. “On the right, there are those who argue that we should end employer-based systems and leave individuals to buy health insurance on their own.” The president, as is his habit, proposed that the appropriate solution lay somewhere in between. “There are arguments to be made for both these approaches. But either one would represent a radical shift that would disrupt the health care most people currently have. Since health care represents one-sixth of our economy, I believe it makes more sense to build on what works and fix what doesn’t, rather than try to build an entirely new system from scratch.”

With such soothing words, the Democrats have easily surpassed the Republicans in fund-raising from the health-care industry and are even pulling ahead in the overall insurance sector, where Republicans once had a two-to-one fund-raising advantage. The deal Obama presented last year, the deal he was elected on, and the deal that likely will pass in the end is a deal the insurance companies like, because it will save their industry from the scrap heap even as it satisfies the “popular clamor for a government supervision.”

The private insurance industry, as currently constituted, would collapse if the government allowed real competition. The companies offer no real value and so instead must create a regulatory system that virtually mandates their existence and will soon actually do so.

A study by the McKinsey Global Institute found that health insurance cost the United States $145 billion in 2006, which was $91 billion more than what would be expected in a comparably wealthy country. This very large disparity may be explained by another study, by the American Medical Association, which shows that the vast majority of U.S. health-insurance markets are dominated by one or two health insurers. In California, the most competitive state, the top two insurance companies shared 58 percent of the market. In Hawaii, the top two companies shared the entire market. In some individual towns there was even less competition—Wellmark, for instance, owns 96 percent of the market in Decatur, Alabama. “Meanwhile, there has been year-to-year growth in the largest health insurers’ profitability,” the AMA reports, even as “consumers have been facing higher premiums, deductibles, copayments and coinsurance, effectively reducing the scope of their coverage.” And yet no innovating entrepreneurs have emerged to compete with these profitable enterprises. The AMA suggests this is because various “regulatory requirements” provide “significant barriers to entry.” Chief among those barriers, it should be noted, is an actual congressional exemption from antitrust laws, in the form of the McCarran–Ferguson Act of 1945.

Insurance companies aren’t quite buggy-whip manufacturers. But they are close. In the past, one could have made an argument that in their bureaucratic capacities—particularly, assessing risk and apportioning payments—insurance companies did offer some expertise that was worth paying for. But all of the trends in politics and in information technology are against insurance companies’ offering even that level of value. Insurance is an information business, and as technology makes information-management cheaper, technological barriers to entry will fall, and competition will increase. (People who relied on the cost of printing presses to maintain a monopoly should be able to relate.)

At the same time, the very idea of assessing health risk is beginning to be understood as undemocratic, as was revealed by the overwhelming support for the 2008 Genetic Information Non-Discrimination Act, which bars insurers from assessing risk based on genetic information. Over time, more and more information will be off-limits to underwriters, so that insurance ultimately will be commoditized—every unit of insurance will cost about the same as every other unit of insurance. Managers know that one must never allow one’s product to become a mere commodity. When every product is like every other product, brand loyalty disappears and prices plummet.

Which perhaps is one reason why the insurers themselves have always favored the central elements of the Democratic plan. As long ago as 1992, when Hillary Clinton was formulating her own approach to reform, the Health Insurance Association of America (now America’s Health Insurance Plans, or AHIP) announced that insurers would agree to sell insurance to everyone, regardless of medical condition (guaranteed issue) if the government required every American to buy that insurance, and used tax dollars to subsidize those who could not afford to do so (universal mandate). Carl Schramm, the president of the association, said this was the “only way you preserve the private health-insurance industry. It’s plain-out enlightened self–interest.” The deal collapsed nonetheless, in part because Congress wanted to introduce a “community rating” system that would have put an end to underwriting by making insurers sell insurance to everybody in a given community for the same price. Insurers wanted to maintain the profitable ability to charge different prices to different people.

Last December, though, AHIP said it would support community rating as well, and since then the real negotiation has been all about details. The insurance companies would agree to sell their undifferentiated commodity to all people, no matter how sick, if the government agreed to require all people, no matter how healthy, to buy their undifferentiated commodity. Sick people who need insurance get insurance and healthy people who don’t need insurance cover the cost. A universal mandate would include the 47 million uninsured—47 million new customers.

The Democratic plan looks to be a huge windfall for the insurance companies. How big is not known, but as BusinessWeek reported in August, “No matter what specifics emerge in the voluminous bill Congress may send to President Obama this fall, the insurance industry will emerge more profitable.” The magazine quoted an unnamed aide to the Senate Finance Committee who said, “The bottom line is that health reform would lead to increased revenues and profits.”

Democrats have crafted a plan full of ideas that almost certainly will help a lot of people who can’t afford insurance now. It also happens to be the case that some of those ideas will significantly benefit the corporations that at one time or another have paid Democrats a lot of money.

The framework for reform, for instance, was authored not by Max Baucus, the Democratic senator who chairs the Finance Committee, but by his senior aide, Liz Fowler, who also directs the committee’s health-care staff. She worked for Baucus from 2001 to 2005 but then left for the private sector. In 2008, reports the Washington gossip paper Politico, “sensing that a Democratic-controlled Congress would make progress on overhauling the health care system,” she returned to Baucus’s side. Where had she retreated to recover from her Washington labors? Politico does not say. In fact, she had become the vice president for public policy and external affairs at WellPoint, one of the nation’s largest health-insurance corporations.

Pretty much everyone involved in health-care reform has been on the payroll of one health-care firm or another. Howard Dean, the former head of the Democratic National Committee and, heroically, a longtime proponent of a single-payer system, nonetheless recently joined McKenna Long & Aldrich, a lobbying firm with many clients in the industry. Nancy-Ann DeParle, the so-called health czar who is overseeing reform at the White House, is reported to have made as much as $6 million serving on the boards of several major medical firms. Tom Daschle, who was set to be Obama’s secretary of health and human services until it emerged that he had failed to pay taxes on his limousine and driver, now earns a $2 million salary as a “special public policy advisor” for the lobbying firm of Alston & Bird, which represents, among many other clients, HealthSouth and Aetna. Asked to describe his current role, Daschle said, “I am most comfortable with the word resource.”

Most illustrative of the clever efficiency with which the Democrats have allowed themselves to be captured, though, is the strange journey of Billy Tauzin. He spent his first fifteen years in Congress as a “conservative” Democrat, struggling mightily to make his fellow party members more amenable to the needs of the health-care industry. In 1994 he founded the “moderate” Blue Dog coalition, whose members continue to deliver the most reliably pro–business vote in the Democratic caucus. But the Blue Dogs of 1994 did not go far enough for Tauzin, so in 1995 he became a Republican, and by 2003 he finally had mastered the system to the degree that he could personally craft one of the largest corporate giveaways in American history: Medicare Part D. After that bill was made into law, he took the natural next step—he became president of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America, the lobbying arm of the drug industry.

Now the circle is complete. The Democratic president of the United States, the candidate of change, the leader of the party Billy Tauzin deserted so long ago for failing to meet the needs of business, must “negotiate” directly with this Republican lobbyist, and rather than repeat this entire tortured journey himself, all Obama has to do is agree to Tauzin’s demands—which he has. The Democratic deal for the drug companies is, if anything, even sweeter than the Democratic deal for the insurance companies. After one of Tauzin’s many visits to the White House, he told the Los Angeles Times that the president had decided Medicare Part D would not be touched. “The White House blessed it,” Tauzin said, assuring his clients that billions of government dollars would continue to flow their way. Democrats, meanwhile, must have been almost equally assured by the subsequent headline in Ad Age: “Pharma Backs Obama Health Reform with $150 Million Campaign.”

What can Republicans do against opponents like that? They are trying to win back their friends in industry, but the effort is a bit sad. In September, for instance, Senator Jim Bunning of Kentucky proposed an amendment that would, among other things, require a “cooling-off period” of seventy-two hours once the bill was completed. His colleague, Pat Roberts of Kansas, said such a pause would provide “the people that the providers have hired to keep up with all of the legislation that we pass around here” the opportunity to say, “‘Hey, wait a minute. Have you considered this?’”

But of course “the people that the providers have hired”—having actually already written the legislation—are quite familiar with the details. The only hope for Republicans right now is if the insurers themselves decide they can get an even better deal by turning on the Democrats, which no doubt they eventually will. Just because competition has moved from the marketplace to the legislature does not mean it is any less intense. Even as various cartels and trusts compete for the favor of the parties, so too must the parties continue to compete for the favor of the cartels and the trusts. In October, for instance, the insurers appeared to turn against the Democrats when AHIP released a study that claimed the Democratic approach to reform would radically increase the cost of insurance. Obama, meanwhile, hit right back. In his weekly radio address, he said the study was “bogus,” noted that the insurance companies had long resisted attempts at reform, and even called into question the validity of the industry’s antitrust exemption. The New York Times reported that such attacks indicated a “sharp break between the White House and the insurance industry,” but this was better understood as a negotiating gambit—perhaps insurers believed drug manufacturers were getting a better deal and saw an opening, or perhaps they simply wanted to revise a specific term of the bill, which at the time, according to the Wall Street Journal, would have increased their industry’s tax burden by $6.7 billion a year.

As Democrats negotiate such impasses, the Republicans, no longer the favored party of corporate America, are left to represent nothing and no one but themselves. They are opposing reform not for ideological reasons but simply because no other play is available. They have lost the business vote, and even their call for “fiscal responsibility” is gestural at best. The “public plan” so hated by Republicans, for instance, would have reduced the cost of reform by as much as $250 billion over the next decade, yet the party universally opposed it because, as Senator Charles Grassley of Iowa explained, “Government is not a fair competitor. It’s a predator.”

Such non sequiturs have opened the way to the darker dream logic that of late has come to dominate G.O.P. rhetoric. Nothing remains but primordial emotion—the fear, rage, and jealousy that have always animated a significant minority of American voters—so Republican congressmen are left to take up concerns about “death panels” and “Soviet-style gulag health care” that will “absolutely kill seniors.” Republicans, having lost their status as the party of business, have become the party of incoherent rage. It is difficult to imagine anything good coming from a system that moderates the will of corporations with the fantasies of hysterics.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 11:00 AM
Response to Original message
47. Bloomberg Headline: U.S. May Lose 824,000 Jobs as Employment Data Revised

2/3/10 U.S. May Lose 824,000 Jobs as Employment Data Revised: Analysis

The U.S. may lose 824,000 jobs when the government releases its annual revision to employment data on Feb. 5, showing the labor market was in worse shape during the recession than known at the time.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aNSc0oQ0vb4M

Click here for a Bloomberg Multimedia interactive visual analysis of the economy’s job losses.
The revision comes every February, but this is the biggest in 18 years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/insight/birth-death-model.html



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Demeter Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 12:52 PM
Response to Reply #47
49. Poof!
Just like that! Isn't science amazing?

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Dr.Phool Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 02:46 PM
Response to Reply #47
51. More of them there green shoots.
Right in the middle of the weed patch.
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DemReadingDU Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Feb-03-10 03:17 PM
Response to Original message
54. FreeWeek at elliottwave.com

If anyone follows Robert Prechter and his Elliott Wave market theory, it's free week at his website

click for more details
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeweek/ss_currencies/default.aspx?code=24290


1/26/10 Bear market warnings are back in the spotlight, with Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave International president. appx 5 minute video
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1396408105&play=1




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