STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday March 9

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday March 9, 2010

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Name(s): David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON March 8, 2010

Dow... 10,552.52 -13.68 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq... 2,332.21 +5.86 (+0.25%)
S&P 500... 1,138.50 -0.20 (-0.02%)
Gold future... 1,125 -10.70 (-0.94%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.71 +0.04 (+0.95%)
30-Year Bond 4.68 +0.04 (+0.88%)

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES..............................................S&P FUTURES

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

GOLD, EURO, YEN, Loonie, Silver and US$

---

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. no goobermental reports today n/t

[ozymandius]

2. Oil drops to near $81 after monthlong run-up

SINGAPORE – Oil prices dropped to near $81 a barrel Tuesday in Asia, losing momentum after a monthlong run-up fueled by growing investor optimism about global economic growth. ...

Crude has risen from $69.59 a barrel on Feb. 5, or about 18 percent, amid signs the U.S. economy is emerging from last year's recession. Investors are still waiting for evidence that oil demand is recovering and will be eyeing weekly inventory data later this week.

The American Petroleum Institute releases its supply report late Tuesday while the Energy Information Agency's data is due Wednesday. ...

In other Nymex trading in April contracts, heating oil fell 0.53 cent to $2.10 a gallon, and gasoline dropped 1.74 cents to $2.272 a gallon. Natural gas was up 3.1 cents at $4.558 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

3. Senate to take up unemployment insurance extension

WASHINGTON – Legislation extending unemployment insurance for the long-term jobless faces a key test vote in the Senate, its momentum helped by about 60 popular tax breaks for individuals and businesses that expired at the end of last year.

The measure also prevents doctors from absorbing a crippling cut in Medicare payments, extends health insurance subsidies for the unemployed and gives cash-starved states help with Medicaid, the federal-state program providing health care to the poor and disabled.

The unemployment insurance alone — to provide weekly unemployment checks averaging above $300 to people whose core 26-week benefit package has run out — will cost $66 billion through December. In some states people are eligible to receive benefits for up to 99 weeks. ...

All told, the measure would add $107 billion to the deficit over the coming decade. Democrats have labeled most of the bill an emergency measure, exempting it from stricter budget rules enacted just last month. ...

The tax breaks include a property tax deduction for people who don't itemize, lucrative credits that help businesses finance research and development and a sales tax deduction that mainly helps people in the nine states without income taxes: Alaska, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, South Dakota, Texas, Tennessee, Washington and Wyoming.

There is a deduction for college tuition for couples making less than $160,000 a year, and one for teachers who use their own money to buy school supplies. There is a tax credit for community development agencies that invest in low-income neighborhoods, as well as a tax break for restaurant owners and retailers who remodel their stores.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100309/ap_on_bi_ge/us_jobless_aid_taxes

[ozymandius]

4. Jobs outlook may be too optimistic: SF Fed study

CHICAGO (Reuters) – The widely held outlook that U.S. unemployment will ease this year may be overly rosy if companies continue to boost productivity at faster-than-usual levels, economists from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank said in a study released on Monday.

Economists Mary Daly and Bart Hobijn trace last year's surge in joblessness to unusually strong productivity growth at U.S. businesses.

Companies' ability to keep output steady, even as they slashed jobs, meant the unemployment rate rose twice as fast as predicted by the historical relationship between gross domestic product and unemployment, known as Okun's law, the economists found. U.S. joblessness touched a high of 10.1 percent last year. ...

The jobless rate unexpectedly fell to 9.7 percent in January and was unchanged in February, despite expectations that it would tick up. But the breakdown in Okun's law could signal a fundamental shift as businesses emphasize cost-containment and flexibility, the economists said. ...

The economic analysis is likely to feed into a growing debate among senior Fed officials over how long to retain the U.S. central bank's pledge to keep interest rates exceptionally low for an "extended period," language that the Fed has used since cutting its target benchmark to near zero in December 2008 to blunt the worst economic downturn since the 1930s.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100308/bs_nm/us_usa_fed_unemployment

[ozymandius]

11. Okun's Law

From Angry Bear:

The Fed of San Francisco just published a note on Okun's Law and the Unemployment Surprise of 2009.

In the paper they conclude that strong productivity was the main reason employment growth was weaker than the traditional relationship that Okun's law implied.

Of course, we at Angry Bear have long known this. I have published this chart that shows that roughly before 1974 that a one percentage point growth in real GDP generated a 0.3 percentage point growth in employment. This is what Okun's law is based on. But during the era of low productivity growth, 1974 to 1995 a percentage point growth in real GDP generated almost a 0.5 percentage growth in employment.

But since productivity growth rebounded in 1995, every percent increase in real GPD was accompanied by almost a 0.9% gain in productivity so that employment barely rose 0.1% -- a significantly lower rate than Okun thought.

This makes sense in that technology has changed since Okun arrived at this correlation between GDP and employment. Technology is, to use a military term, a force multiplier. Loss in human power has been offset by gains in technology.

[bread_and_roses]

14. It's not just the wonders of technology. It's also wage-theft and short-staffing,

two people doing work that used to be done by three, people working unpaid hours, workers denied or afraid to take breaks or leave on time, not taking vacations due them, when they are lucky enough to have vacations. It's wage cuts or at best stagnation, so the same work is being done for less and less $$. Not to mention out-and-out wage theft, a huge problem in low-wage work around the country. All of that would push up "productivity" would it not?

[fasttense]

20. It's called outsourcing.

See, if you send all your manufacturing work to another country and then ship the parts back to the US to put together, you have just increased your productivity numbers. It's not that corporations are doing more with less people, it's that they are doing more with less US workers because they are giving more of the work to foreign countries.

If a corporation outsources their call-in lines to India, their productivity numbers increase even before they fire all their US call-in workers.

It's also tied to monopolies. See if SafeWay buys out Food Country, then SafeWay closes out all the Food Country store and fires all the Food Country employees, SafeWay's productivity increases.

Productivity is just a numbers game like all economic statistics. It doesn't mean what it use to mean.

[burf]

21. The term that comes to mind was used

by Tom DeLay a few years ago. When visiting the Commonwealth of Northern Marianas Islands, he used the term "The perti dish of capitalism" to describe industry there. Slave labor conditions, abortions forced on tho women who became pregnant, women forced into the sex trade when they couldn't make production. You know, capitalism just like Jesus would want it.

From a few years ago: http://www.msmagazine.com/spring2006/paradise_full.asp

[FarCenter]

33. Outsourcing of call centers to India is a technological advance

It would not be possible without inexpensive undersea fiberoptic communications cables linking the US with the Far East and South Asia. They are a direct result of scientific advances in materials processing and manufactureing in order to make the low-loss fibers, in new approaches to lightwave communications such as Raman amplification, and in components such as laser transmitters, avalanche photodetectors, and wavelength division multiplication devices.

[Zenlitened]

44. But not a productivity gain. - n/t

[Zenlitened]

43. Yup. The stat becomes little more than a lie, when it ignores certain hours...

... in the production process. Simply ignores 'em. :wow:

This is an op-ed from the NYT:

...labor productivity figures, which are calculated by the Labor Department, count only worker hours in America, even though American-owned factories and labs have been steadily transplanted overseas, and foreign workers have contributed significantly to the final products counted in productivity measures.

The result is an apparent drop in the number of worker hours required to produce goods — and thus increased productivity. But actually, the total number of worker hours does not necessarily change.

(snip)

This continuing mismeasurement leads economists and all those who rely on them to assume that recorded productivity gains always signify greater efficiency, rather than simple offshoring-generated cost cuts — leaving the rest of us scratching our heads over stagnating wages.

Link:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/06/opinion/06Tonelson.html

[Demeter]

23. It Doesn't Hardly Qualify as a Law, Does It?

Okun's Observation might be a more accurate appellation.

[ozymandius]

25. there is the letter of the law and then there is the spirit of the law.

Mr. Okun may have dabbled in generalities when he constructed this formula in 1963.

[tclambert]

41. This is how the robots will take over.

Skynet doesn't need to launch a nuclear apocalypse. The robots just need to slowly, inexorably take all our jobs. Then when humans no longer know how to do anything or make anything, they'll shut the valve to our feeding tubes.

[Johnny Harpo]

22. If Okun's Law Is 'Inaccurate' Because Of It's Failure To Include....

advances in technology.

How many of our other economic 'laws' - 'theories' - 'axioms' are also off base due to this same failure to include advances in technology?

I wonder what Elizabeth Warren might have to say about this?

Developing economic 'policy' or measuring economic conditions without factoring in technology, is like estimating the time it takes to travel somewhere by car based on how far and fast a horse can travel on one bag of oats.

Not to mention other 'factors' like 'job-sharing' or 'working from home'.

[Demeter]

29. Any Economics Above the Level of Person-to-Person, Face to Face Transaction

is merely a question of what laws (legal type, enforceable contract laws) are in effect at the time. If you know these laws, you can project what a "rational" person or group might do, or at least, OUGHT to do to minimize losses and/or maximize profits.

Economics isn't a hard science, in spite of all its pretensions--no action/reaction is 100% reproducible under identical conditions, and the conditions are never identical, anyway. We are dealing with people, not sub-atomic particles. Too many transactions are not arms-length, clean cut, and therefore, politics and cronyism holds sway.

Theoretically, if we had a sane, workable government without flaws and with maximum transparency, we would have economic paradise.

Needless to say, here and now is nothing of the sort.

[ozymandius]

5. Greece to Press U.S. to Crack Down on ‘Speculators’

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou will press President Barack Obama to help Europe combat “unprincipled speculators,” who he said have roiled markets and threaten a new global financial crisis.

“Europe and America must say ‘enough is enough’ to those speculators who only place value on immediate returns, with utter disregard for the consequences on the larger economic system,” he said in a speech yesterday in Washington. ...

He and other European leaders such as French President Nicolas Sarkozy have blamed speculators for much of the surge in Greek financing costs, rather than Greece’s budget gap of more than four times the European Union limit. Germany and France are pushing for curbs on “speculators” who use derivatives to bet against Greek debt, officials in Berlin and Brussels said yesterday. ...

U.S. authorities have told some hedge funds not to destroy trading records on euro bets, according to a person with knowledge of the requests. Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou praised the U.S. efforts to scrutinize hedge funds. “It is very important for the U.S. to be on board,” he said in an interview in Washington yesterday.

Papandreou singled out credit-default swaps as being particularly disruptive, saying their use to protect against a Greek default was the equivalent of allowing someone to buy fire insurance on a neighbor’s house and then burning it down to collect.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a25PYtTYmgzs&pos=1

[ozymandius]

6. Obama Criticizes Insurers in Bid to Sway Public on Health Plan

March 9 (Bloomberg) -- President Barack Obama and his top health official are stepping up attacks on the nation’s insurers as they work to sway public opinion and persuade lawmakers to back U.S. health-care legislation.

Obama told an audience outside Philadelphia yesterday that insurers have calculated that higher premiums can more than make up for the loss of customers who can’t afford coverage. Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius highlighted her call to insurers to post information justifying their rates. ...

White House officials are trying to rally public support for the biggest changes to U.S. health care in 45 years. The effort was on the brink of failure just a few weeks ago and still faces opposition from Republicans and some Democrats. ...

Obama cited a plan by WellPoint Inc. for a 39 percent rate increase for some policyholders in California. Both he and Sebelius also referred to a conference call held by New York- based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in which an executive from the London-based insurance broker Willis Group Holdings Plc said price competition has decreased and insurers are willing to “walk away” from clients.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0SNscZAU5sI&pos=9

[bread_and_roses]

12. Critcsizing Insurerers while pushing a plan to shovel gazillions of public $$ to them?

Do we have a little cognitive dissonance going here, or just a deep, deep well of hypocrisy and cynicism?

Hard to care much what Obama spouts these days. It's too painful.

[Dr.Phool]

24. Does anyone remember the term, "Miserable Failure"?

This guy talks out of both sides of his mouth better than anyone I've ever seen.

The insurance industry has, all by it's little self, presented the best case for it's utter annihilation. And this dickhead wants to give them more and more. Pardon the french, but it really pisses me off.

An earlier example of their intentions. A friend of mine, I used to work with, qualified for the Health Care Tax Credit, since he was over age 55, and receiving a reduced pension from the PBGC. He had to call his insurer, and get on a new plan. HCTC would pay for 65% of it. He had to send his premiums to the IRS, and they would add the additional money, and pay for the policy.

He took a plan with identical coverage that he was paying for out of his own pocket. They jacked the price up more than double. He wound up paying more for the subsidized plan, with the same coverage, than he did out of pocket.

I'm a little short on money this month, mainly due to State Farm, but I'm sending a little something to my friend Dennis, with a note. "Kill this monstrosity"!!!!!

[kickysnana]

26. Oh goodie, a strongly worded speech that will scare them in line.

:sarcasm:

[mbperrin]

38. Well, hopefully, not TOO strongly worded. Wouldn't wanta hurt their

tiny feelings and all....














Surely I don't need a sarcasm icon?

[Festivito]

7. Debt: 03/05/2010 12,544,703,929,352.55 (DOWN 786,083,679.74) (Fri)

(Down a littly tiny bit. Up a lot lately. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,060,998,180,435.07 + 4,483,705,748,917.48
DOWN 74,542,156.87 + DOWN 711,541,522.87

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,901,918 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,610.64.
A family of three owes $121,831.91. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 9,959,663,660.13.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,639,775,773.42.
The average for the last 28 days would be 7,114,045,471.52.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 106 reports in 156 days of FY2010 averaging 5.99B$ per report, 4.07B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,052 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.0 and 20.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/05/2010 12,544,703,929,352.55 BHO (UP 1,917,826,880,439.47 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,634,874,925,840.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,485,444,538,024.95 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/12/2010 -000,104,736,856.82 ---
02/16/2010 +030,097,605,306.92 ------------********** Tue
02/17/2010 +000,408,694,886.67 ------------********
02/18/2010 +015,224,901,067.79 ------------**********
02/19/2010 +000,114,262,910.59 ------------********
02/22/2010 -000,206,249,204.22 --- Mon
02/23/2010 +000,404,218,476.39 ------------********
02/24/2010 -000,081,552,792.52 ----
02/25/2010 +034,823,775,896.06 ------------**********
02/26/2010 +007,974,774,874.74 ------------*********
03/01/2010 +088,256,071,194.67 ------------********** Mon
03/02/2010 +000,051,419,206.42 ------------*******
03/03/2010 +001,678,102,940.09 ------------*********
03/04/2010 +034,416,128,156.63 ------------**********
03/05/2010 -000,074,542,156.87 ----

212,982,873,906.54 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4297641&mesg_id=4297657

[Festivito]

40. Debt: 03/08/2010 12,546,372,001,879.73 (UP 1,668,072,527.18) (Mon)

(Up a littly tiny bit. Up a lot lately. Debt seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat. Good day all.)

= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,061,258,419,021.54 + 4,485,113,582,858.19
UP 260,238,586.47 + UP 1,407,833,940.71

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.24 each THAT'S 1B$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.71, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 10 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 308,927,838 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 11/07/2009 08:19 -> 307,879,272
Currently, each of these Americans owe $40,612.63.
A family of three owes $121,837.89. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 28 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 9,923,452,367.40.
The average for the last 30 days would be 6,615,634,911.60.
The average for the last 28 days would be 7,088,180,262.43.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 107 reports in 159 days of FY2010 averaging 5.95B$ per report, 4.00B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 1,049 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.0 and 20.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
03/08/2010 12,546,372,001,879.73 BHO (UP 1,919,494,952,966.65 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +0,636,542,998,368.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,461,246,505,687.55 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
02/16/2010 +030,097,605,306.92 ------------********** Tue
02/17/2010 +000,408,694,886.67 ------------********
02/18/2010 +015,224,901,067.79 ------------**********
02/19/2010 +000,114,262,910.59 ------------********
02/22/2010 -000,206,249,204.22 --- Mon
02/23/2010 +000,404,218,476.39 ------------********
02/24/2010 -000,081,552,792.52 ----
02/25/2010 +034,823,775,896.06 ------------**********
02/26/2010 +007,974,774,874.74 ------------*********
03/01/2010 +088,256,071,194.67 ------------********** Mon
03/02/2010 +000,051,419,206.42 ------------*******
03/03/2010 +001,678,102,940.09 ------------*********
03/04/2010 +034,416,128,156.63 ------------**********
03/05/2010 -000,074,542,156.87 ----
03/08/2010 +000,260,238,586.47 ------------******** Mon

213,347,849,349.83 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4299321&mesg_id=4299329

[ozymandius]

8. Fannie, Freddie Ask Banks to Eat Soured Mortgages (Update2)

March 5 (Bloomberg) -- Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may force lenders including Bank of America Corp., JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc. to buy back $21 billion of home loans this year as part of a crackdown on faulty mortgages.

That’s the estimate of Oppenheimer & Co. analyst Chris Kotowski, who says U.S. banks could suffer losses of $7 billion this year when those loans are returned and get marked down to their true value. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, both controlled by the U.S. government, stuck the four biggest U.S. banks with losses of about $5 billion on buybacks in 2009, according to company filings made in the past two weeks.

The surge shows lenders are still paying the price for lax standards three years after mortgage markets collapsed under record defaults. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are looking for more faulty loans to return after suffering $202 billion of losses since 2007, and banks may have to go along, since the two U.S.- owned firms now buy at least 70 percent of new mortgages. ...

The government’s efforts might be counterproductive, since the Treasury and Federal Reserve are trying to help banks heal, FBR’s Miller said. The banks have to buy back the loans at par, and then take an impairment, because borrowers usually have stopped paying and the price of the underlying home has plunged. JPMorgan said in a presentation last month that it loses about 50 cents on the dollar for every loan it has to buy back.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ax.OUty1SiG4&

[ozymandius]

9. Credit Suisse: $1 trillion worth of ARMs still face resets

While several industry observers worry about negative equity and unemployment driving foreclosures, a couple of experts point out that interest rates on mortgages remain a cause for concern.

Credit Suisse made waves in 2007 among housing bears with a chart that estimates the volume of adjustable-rate mortgages to face a reset each month. An updated version of the chart, which was provided to SNL, shows resets remain a worrying force over the next few years.

Most of the resets are expected to occur through 2012. Between 2010 and 2012, the chart indicates that $253.25 billion of option ARMs will adjust, while Alt-A loans totaling $163.71 billion will reset over that time. Altogether, $1.010 trillion worth of ARMs will reset or recast during the three-year period. ...

Borrowers who already have seen their ARMs reset might be sitting on their hands and not refinancing into fixed-rate products, McBride said. Because mortgage rates have been so low recently, resets can actually lower, not raise, monthly payments. When that happens, borrowers might feel little urge to refinance into a fixed-rate product that would cost more per month. Alternatively, ARM borrowers might simply struggle to qualify for a refinance because of low or negative equity.

The problem, McBride said, is that when interest rates increase — which many analysts expect to happen over the next year — borrowers' monthly payments might increase beyond what is affordable for them. And at that point, the fixed-rate products will no longer be attractive, or even financially viable, options.

McBride said the government's Home Affordable Refinance Program could help many of those homeowners avoid such payment shocks. But the program does not appear to be gaining much traction.

http://www.snl.com/interactivex/article.aspx?CDID=A-10770380-12086

[Po_d Mainiac]

13. I'll believe it when I see it

And if it happens, it will be a lovely sight! :popcorn:

[Demeter]

15. Whoever it was that made this decision--Promote them to Treasury Secretary

they got what it takes to stand up to the banksters.

[ozymandius]

10. Europe bars Wall Street banks from government bond sales

European countries are blocking Wall Street banks from lucrative deals to sell government debt worth hundreds of billions of euros in retaliation for their role in the credit crunch.

For the first time in five years, no big US investment bank appears among the top nine sovereign bond bookrunners in Europe, according to Dealogic data compiled for the Guardian. Only Morgan Stanley ranks at number 10.

Goldman Sachs doesn't make the table. Goldman made it to number five last year and in 2006, and number eight in 2007, the data shows. JP Morgan was in the top ten last year and in 2007 and 2006 but doesn't appear this year.

"Governments do not have the confidence that the excessive risk-taking culture of the big Wall Street banks has changed and they still cannot be trusted to put the stability of the financial system before profit," said Arlene McCarthy, vice chair of the European parliament's economic and monetary affairs committee. "It is no surprise therefore that governments are reluctant to do business with banks that have failed to learn the lesson of the crisis. The banks need to acknowledge the mistakes that were made and behave in an ethical way to regain the trust and confidence of governments." ....

The EU is also trying to curb US financial power by creating its own monetary fund – a replica of the Washington-based IMF.The need of a European fund has emerged during the Greek crisis, as European politicians have insisted financial troubles should be resolved at home.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/mar/08/us-banks-european-bond-trading

---

Good on 'em. That is a very smart move to curb the toxic contagion that America exported.

[Demeter]

16. Starve the Beasts --then Drown Them in a Bathtub

Sauce for the gander.

[Roland99]

28. And the first loophole will be found in 3...2...1....

[Demeter]

30. Loopholes Don't Come Cheap

Especially when you've pissed off Angela AND Nikola!

[Roland99]

32. Cheap is only relative

Just depends on who does the actual paying.

[UpInArms]

17. dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?acs=NYBOT_DX&v=i

Last trade 80.730 Change +0.298 (+0.38%)

Daily Sound Bites 03.09

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/daily_sound_bites/2010-03-09-1202-Daily_Sound_Bites_03_09.html



...more...

USD Graphic Rewind 03.09

http://www.dailyfx.com/forex/fundamental/article/usd_graphic_rewind/2010-03-09-0634-USD_Graphic_Rewind_03_09.html



...more...

[Demeter]

18. Good Morning Ozy and All!

That's amazing--there's good news! And it's coming out of Europe, of course, the only place that even has pretensions of civilization and democracy.

I wish I had good news, but I was dragged out of a sound sleep to take care of the Kid. It's a good thing I already have a doctor's appointment scheduled for her...

It was in the 50's yesterday--what does it mean if one feels chilled when it warms up?

Could this mean that GS may be driven out of the halls of our Government by the demands of angry Europeans? We can hope! That's what we bought last election, right?

[UpInArms]

19. Former Morgan Stanley exec to join Carlyle-source

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN0811160820100309

NEW YORK, March 8 (Reuters) - Former Morgan Stanley (MS.N) executive Mitch Petrick is joining Carlyle Group to head the private equity firm's leveraged finance and mezzanine business for the United States and Europe, a source familiar with the situation said late on Monday.

Petrick was displaced in a management shuffle at Morgan Stanley in December as new Chief Executive James Gorman put his own team in place. Petrick was global head of sales and trading.

Petrick joined Morgan Stanley in 1989 and became a managing director in 1996. He was promoted to oversee the firm's trading operations in 2007.

The firm was widely criticized for missing out on windfall trading profits during the first half of 2009, which helped rival Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS.N) realize a record annual profit. Morgan Stanley missed the opportunity because it scaled back risk after the financial crisis in 2008.

...more...

[Dr.Phool]

27. He got fired for pulling them away from the craps table.

And taking away their keys, and some drunk rolled a couple of numbers, beat them home?

[Demeter]

31. No Good Deed Goes Unpunished

And working for Carlyle qualifies as punishment in my books. EW, the slime!

[FarCenter]

34. ‘On the Edge’ Banks Face Writedowns on FDIC Auctions

March 8 (Bloomberg) -- A Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. plan to auction more than $1 billion in assets seized from failed banks next month, including a loan to build a W Hotel in Atlanta, may trigger writedowns that weaken lenders nationwide.

Almost half of the loans were originated by Silverton Bank N.A., whose collapse last May was the biggest in Georgia history. Community banks that joined Silverton in providing $80 million for the 237-room hotel and condominium complex, as well as backing for 39 other projects, could be forced to write down their stakes to reflect sale prices.

The auctions may have wider repercussions. Of the $41 billion in assets seized from failed banks held by the FDIC as of the end of January, $15.6 billion are real estate loans and about 4 percent of those involve participations by other lenders, according to agency spokesman Andrew Gray.

“These banks can’t believe that the regulator they pay to protect them is going to sell these loans to someone who can flip them and cause them serious losses,” said Robert Reynolds, a lawyer at Reynolds Reynolds & Duncan LLC in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, who represents 25 lenders that took part in financing the W Hotel. “Our banks just cannot believe they’re being treated in a way that ultimately hurts the FDIC’s insurance fund, because some of them are right on the edge.”

<SNIP>

‘Deal With Themselves’

Silverton, a wholesale bank based in Atlanta with no consumer operations, was owned and overseen by more than 400 community lenders in the region. It was founded in 1986 and provided banking services, including wire-transfer systems, bond trading and credit-card operations, to about 1,400 institutions in 44 states.

Reynolds said the banks that owned Silverton, some of which had representatives on its board, never imagined it would fail.

“My clients had a long, successful record with Silverton,” Reynolds said. “When they signed their participations, they felt they were signing a deal with themselves because they all owned the bank. We all thought this was a way to diversify risk.”

The bank’s troubles began in early 2007, when it changed from a state to a national charter so it could accelerate its growth, according to a report by the Treasury Department’s Office of Inspector General, which reviews failures of banks regulated by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency.

Defaults Double

Silverton’s commercial real estate lending rose to $1.2 billion at the end of 2008 from $681 million at the end of 2006, the report said. The bank had $4.1 billion in assets when it failed last year, and the FDIC said the closing will cost its insurance fund $1.3 billion.

“The board and management either chose to ignore or failed to acknowledge the indicators of a declining real estate market,” the inspector general’s report said.

<SNIP>http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=axnpzq.OM0BY&pos=11

---

Expect more Georgia bank failures.

[Robbien]

35. I guess this is goodbye'; A behind-the-scenes look at Lehman Brothers' last gasp before bankruptcy

It is Sunday, Sept. 14, 2008, in New York and an intense weekend spent trying to prevent the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the market chaos that would cause was drawing to a close. There would be no white knight to rescue the company. This excerpt from Too Big to Fail by Andrew Ross Sorkin details the curtain call made to Lehman's board of directors.

Henry Paulson, Treasury Secretary, checked his watch and saw that it was past 7 p.m., which meant the Asian markets were opening, and Lehman still hadn't filed for bankruptcy.

"Has Cox talked to them yet?" he barked at his chief of staff, Jim Wilkinson.

Wilkinson said that he had been trying to get Chris Cox, chairman of the SEC, to call Lehman directly, but that he had been resistant.

"He hasn't done s–t," Wilkinson said dismissively. "I went in there and repeated what you said, and it's like he's frozen. Like a f—ing deer in the headlights."

Cox, for whom Paulson had very little respect to begin with, was proving how over his head he really was. Paulson had assigned him the task of co-ordinating Lehman's filing by, well, now. "This guy is useless," he said, throwing his hands in the air and heading over to Cox's temporary office himself.

After barging in and slamming the door, Paulson shouted, "What the hell are you doing? Why haven't you called them?"

Cox, who was clearly reticent about using his position in government to direct a company to file for bankruptcy, sheepishly offered that he wasn't certain if it was appropriate for him to make such a call.

"You guys are like the gang that can't shoot straight!" Paulson bellowed. "This is your f—ing job. You have to make the phone call."

much more . . .

http://www.kelowna.com/2010/03/06/i-guess-this-is-goodbye-a-behind-the-scenes-look-at-lehman-brothers-last-gasp-before-bankruptcy/


Well worth a read.


The description of the privately owned Fed Reserve barging into the SEC office banging doors and shouting orders to the head of the SEC is rather remarkable.

[mrdmk]

36. From the link provided by Robbien

<snip>

Henry Kaufman, an 81-year-old former Salomon Brothers economist who headed the Lehman board's risk-management committee, haltingly stood up to speak. Known as "Dr. Doom" for his downbeat outlooks in the 1970s, Kaufman had been sharply critical of the Fed earlier in the year, accusing the central bank of "providing only tepid oversight of commercial banking." Now he again took aim at the government for pushing Lehman into bankruptcy.

"This is a day of disgrace! How could the government have allowed this to happen?" Kaufman thundered. "Where were the regulators?" He went on for another five minutes without stopping, and when he finally slumped into his seat, the other directors could only look on in sadness.

<end of snip>

That is the $60,000 question, where were the regulators? Well, all you have to do is look at the head of the SEC and the President of the United States. It is what you get when the people in charge put more into idealogical beliefs than facts!

[DemReadingDU]

37. Where were the regulators?

Where are the regulators? The fraud and corruption are still running rampant today.

[Dr.Phool]

42. Where ARE the regulators?

[Demeter]

46. WHO Are the Regulators? I Want NAMES!

We already know Geithner disqualified himself, and Bernanke took a pass...

[Dr.Phool]

39. Is it Kucinichfest or something today?

They're going wild out there.

I couldn't get into much in GD-P. Every thread I clicked on, said I have this poster on ignore.

[Robbien]

45. DLC/BlueDog DUers seem to be on the war path

Dennis is the only Dem being vocal about this Healthcare bill being a goldmine for insurance companies.

DLCers/NewDems/BlueDogs are not happy and when they are not happy they start browbeating the masses into submission.

I'm only guessing about this cause I also have those DUers on my ignore list so most of their shenanigans go right by me unnoticed.

[Demeter]

47. I have that same problem

My ignore list runs to 4 screens, about 75 names, including one "moderator".

[Demeter]

48. Given the Total Lack of News to Act Upon, That Looks Like a Thoroughly

manipulated market there.