Census mail results could be trouble for 5 states

[imurhuckleberry]

Source: Boston Globe

WASHINGTON—Five states -- New York, California, Texas, Arizona and Florida -- are close to losing out on congressional seats because of lackluster participation in the U.S. census.

Statistics released Wednesday show those states are average or below average in mailing back the 10-question census forms when compared to other states.

Of the five states on the cusp, the biggest potential losers are California, which could end up losing a House seat, and New York, which could have a net loss of two seats.

Texas may end up gaining just three House seats instead of four. Arizona and Florida may lose out on adding one or two House seats.

On Saturday, Census workers begin knocking on the doors of those who did not respond to the mail-in form.

NOTE: Short article. Shown here in it's entirety

Read more: http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washington/articles/2010/04/28/census_mail_results_could_be_trouble_for_5_states/

[marshall]

1. Interesting to see the population shifting

The country is settling in.

[BumRushDaShow]

2. Longer AP article here

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iwCqpymd8Y6bJ5RtvzEYGZpjeUWgD9FC9HC82">http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5iwCqpymd8Y6bJ5RtvzEYGZpjeUWgD9FC9HC82

[salguine]

3. Maybe enough people in New York, California, Texas, Arizona and Florida have woken up to

the fact that it doesn't make two shits worth of difference whether they have "representation" in Congress. What's adding a seat or two if their occupants don't represent you anyway?

[leeloo]

4. Yep that was my take..

[quakerboy]

5. Dont they end up representing Other states instead?

Isn't the house number static, so if those states lose seats, other, possibly redder states win them? I think I'd rather have a lousy NY rep than a really lousy OK rep.

[salguine]

7. No, the House number isn't static. The Senate is; each state gets two Senators regardless

of population, but states get Representatives based on population; one Representative is assigned for every 550,000 citizens. So it's conceivable that if a district's population increased enough, it could add a House seat, or even lose one if a district's population decreased for some reason.

[quakerboy]

9. Are you sure

Wikipedia says otherwise.

"The only constitutional rule relating to the size of the House says: "The Number of Representatives shall not exceed one for every thirty Thousand."<3> Congress regularly increased the size of the House to account for population growth until it fixed the number of voting House members at 435 in 1911.<1>"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Us_house_of_representatives#Membership_and_qualifications

[salguine]

10. I'm pretty sure my figure is right. If I were a betting man, and were presented with this,

I think I would have to say Wiki is mistaken. I may be wrong, but I don't think I am.

[Travis_0004]

11. The wikipedia link is correct

In 1911, the size of the house was fixed at 435, so if one state gains a seat, that means another state has to loose a seat.

[salguine]

13. So, if that's the case, then there can't be any set population figure per Representative. How

would you determine who would lose the set to offset another district's gain?

[Travis_0004]

14. Math. Thats one of the main reasons for the census.

Lets say there are 435 million people in the US (since it makes the math easy).

Every 1 million people should have one person in the house to represent them.

Wyoming has .5 million people, so by the math they should get .5 representatives, but they are guaranteed one.

That means that Some states get rounded down when it comes to how many representatives they get, some are rounded up.

--------------
Arizona is very underrepresented right now, so they will probably gain a seat, which means another state has to loose a seat.

Using the made up numbers from above, we would distribute the seats among the states in whichever way made the 'people per house seat' the closest.

Sometimes small states have it pretty good, like Wyoming with 522k people per seat, and sometimes states get screwed, like montana with 957k per seat (using real numbers, not my made up population from above), but its a decent system overall. The last thing we need is 100 extra congressmen in the house to mess up things even further.

[No Elephants]

16. In 1910 or 1911 (sources vary), Congress fixed the number at 433, with the

proviso that Arizona and New Mexico would each get one seat if and when that territory attained statehood.

Neither becamse a state until 1912, so the number of representatives did not rise from 433 to 435 until 1912. When Hawaii and Alaska first became states, the number of Representatives did rise to 437 temporarily, then reverted to 435. So, I am assuming that adding another state might not permanently increase the number of Representatives.

The number of Reps also went up to 438 briefly in 1991 (not sure why--maybe because of a Circuit Court decision in a lawsuit, which decision the SCOTUS overturned.).

As to whether fixing the number at 433 occurred 1910 or 1911, sources do vary, but the salient point is that the number was fixed after the 1910 census was completed.

Fractions have caused a lot of quill work and debate over the years.

http://www.rules.house.gov/archives/RL31074.pdg

http://www.census.gov/population/www/censusdata/apportionment/history.html

http://www.50states.com/statehood.htm

Having a reason to look up stuff like this is one of the major reasons posting is fun for me.

[No Elephants]

15. Maybe they end up representing the lobbyists who make them rich more than

they represent the people of any district, regardless of the state.

I'm thisclose to urging that we fire the lot of them, along with their massive staffs and highly expensive real estate.

that said, I did return my census form, even though I don't think Boston is in much danger of losing representation. Moreover, I hope that we are talking on this thread about upstate NY and Southern California.

[Historic NY]

6. In NY we pay taxes & then more taxes & then more once they decided on a budget.

[CatholicEdHead]

8. We could actually get another seat

after having the 2nd highest return rate in the country (80%).

[Skink]

12. I had to request a form.

Somethings going on in Texas.

[No Elephants]

17. I got my form in the mail from the U.S. Census office. And, because I procrastinated, I got

a second one in the mail, which I mailed in right away.

If you received no form in the mail, someone tampered with your mail, a federal crime.

Maybe you should report that to the Post Office or the Census Office?

[tanyev]

18. What about Michele Bachmann's district?

That's the one I've really got my fingers crossed for.