STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday June 17

[ozymandius]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday June 17, 2010

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON June 16, 2010

Dow... 10,409.46 +4.69 (+0.05%)
Nasdaq... 2,305.93 +0.05 (+0.00%)
S&P 500... 1,114.61 -0.62 (-0.06%)
Gold future... 1,234 +3.40 (+0.28%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.25 -0.02 (-0.46%)
30-Year Bond 4.17 -0.01 (-0.29%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[ozymandius]

1. Today's Reports

08:30 Initial Claims 06/12
Briefing.com 450K
Consensus 450K
Prior 456K

08:30 Continuing Claims 06/5
Briefing.com 4500K
Consensus 4475K
Prior 4462K

08:30 CPI May
Briefing.com -0.1%
Consensus -0.1%
Prior -0.1%

08:30 Core CPI May
Briefing.com 0.0%
Consensus 0.1%
Prior 0.0%

08:30 Current Account Balance Q1
Briefing.com -$125.0B
Consensus -$124.0B
Prior -$115.6B

10:00 Leading Indicators May
Briefing.com 0.4%
Consensus 0.5%
Prior -0.1%

10:00 Philadelphia Fed Jun
Briefing.com 20.0
Consensus 20.0
Prior 21.4

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Po_d Mainiac]

23. And the numbers

SUCK
:puke:

Gotta love these jobless recoveries

[ozymandius]

25. Goodness gracious this sucks.

08:30 Initial Claims 06/12 Actual 472K last week revised up by 4k

08:30 Continuing Claims 06/5 Actual 4571K last week revised up by 19k

08:30 CPI May Actual -0.2%

08:30 Core CPI May Actual 0.1%

08:30 Current Account Balance Q1 Actual -$109.0B
Prior -$100.9B
Revised from -$115.6B

[Demeter]

63. Can't Expect Output, When There's Been No Input

I can tell by the graph when the reports came out, too...

[ozymandius]

2. Oil falls to $77 as 3-week rally stalls

MOSCOW – Oil prices dropped to $77 a barrel Thursday as investors lost confidence in a three-week rally amid signs of weak crude demand in the U.S., the world's biggest energy consumer.

Stock markets provided little direction, with Britain's FTSE 100 up 0.9 percent but Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average down 0.7 percent. The Dow Jones industrials closed flat on Wednesday.

Recent movements in oil prices got experts saying that traders are now looking less at the fundamental factors but are getting carried away by emotional trading.

In other Nymex trading in July contracts, heating oil rose 0.2 cent to $2.1343 a gallon and gasoline added 0.16 cent to $2.1609 a gallon. Natural gas was up 8.2 cents at $5.060 per 1,000 cubic feet.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[ozymandius]

13. U.S. Won't Lift Deepwater Drilling Ban, Lawyers Tell Judge

The six-month moratorium on deepwater drilling ordered in the wake of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill is essential to ensure public safety and shouldn’t be lifted, U.S. regulators said yesterday in a court filing.

Hornbeck Offshore Services Inc. and other offshore service and supply companies last week sued U.S. Interior Secretary Kenneth Salazar, the head of the Minerals Management Service, and both federal agencies, asking a federal court in New Orleans to lift an executive ban on oil and gas exploration in waters more than 500 feet deep.

The moratorium applies to all floating rigs in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico except two hired by BP Plc to drill relief wells to try to cap the runaway well spewing from 35,000 to 60,000 barrels of oil daily.

The lawsuit was originally filed June 7 by Covington, Louisiana-based Hornbeck. Since then more than it has been joined by more than a dozen companies that build rigs, operate supply-boat fleets, provide remotely-operated submarines, clean tanks, load cargo and provide other support for the 33 rigs drilling in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico when the ban was imposed.

http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-16/u-s-won-t-lift-six-month-ban-on-deepwater-drilling-lawyers-tell-judge.html

[ozymandius]

3. Bernanke says Fed is beefing up bank oversight

WASHINGTON – The Federal Reserve is working to beef up oversight of financial companies to better protect the nation from another financial crisis in the future, Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday.

Bernanke welcomed key parts of that package in remarks prepared for delivery to a conference in New York. At the same time, though, Bernanke emphasized that the Fed is moving ahead on its own reforms.

For instance, the Fed is working to strengthen capital requirements for banks so that they'll have bigger and better cushions to protect against any potential losses. And, the Fed is collecting more information on linkages among financial companies to better identify potential channels of financial contagion.

Bernanke embraced provisions contained in both the Senate- and House-passed financial overhaul measures that would create a council of regulators — which includes the Fed — to police for risky practices that could endanger the financial system. Concentrating all such powers within a single agency, he said, could create "regulatory blind spots."

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100617/ap_on_bi_ge/us_bernanke

[sendero]

5. Whereas letting multiple agencies do it..

... creates the opportunity for each to claim "I thought the other guy was watching that".

[Demeter]

6. Sure they are!

And we are getting out of Iraq, too.

[ozymandius]

7. Fed faces more congressional scrutiny in bank bill

WASHINGTON – Looking to peer deeper into Federal Reserve activities, House and Senate lawmakers negotiating a massive financial regulation bill agreed Wednesday to expand congressional scrutiny of the nation's central bank.

Senators on a panel assembling a final regulatory bill accepted a House plan that would permit Congress' investigative arm to examine the central bank's most significant transactions.

The panel is bridging differences between House and Senate versions of a sweeping overhaul of the rules that govern Wall Street. Wednesday's agreement would authorize the Government Accountability Office to audit emergency Fed infusions to financial institutions, low-cost loans the Fed provides to banks, and the purchase and sale of securities that the Fed undertakes to set monetary policy.

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd, D-Conn., was ready to drop a provision in the Senate bill that would require the president to appoint the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. There are 12 regional Fed banks, but most of the largest banks in the country are supervised by the New York Fed.

Instead, House Democrats are recommending that bankers who sit on the Fed's regional bank boards be denied a vote on presidents of the regional boards.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100617/ap_on_bi_ge/us_financial_overhaul

[Demeter]

4. 2nd Rec

The humidity broke yesterday, and we had a cool night, too. It's supposed to be summer this weekend, though.

The Statue of Liberty arrived on this date in 1885!



and in spite of all, she hasn't left us in disgust yet...

[Demeter]

8. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, ordered to delist

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/2010/06/16/Fannie-Mae-Freddie-Mac-ordered-to-delist/UPI-99401276715619

The Federal National Mortgage Association Wednesday notified New York and Chicago stock exchanges of its intention to delist its stock due to low prices.

Fannie Mae said it had filed notification with the Securities and Exchange Commission of its intention to delist common and preferred stock, a move prompted by the New York Stock Exchange, which informed Fannie Mae on June 15 that it no longer met minimum standards on prices to maintain a presence on the exchange.

The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp., Freddie Mac, was also ordered off of stock listings, CNNMoney.com reported.

Shares of both mortgage giants fell with the news. Fannie Mae was listed at 56 cents per share in midday trading, down 0.37 percent from the opening price of 91 cents at the opening bell. Freddie Mac shares fell 40 percent to 72 cents.

Both companies were put into government conservatorship in September 2008 after massive losses due to the subprime mortgage meltdown.

The Treasury Department has kept Fannie Mae afloat with $83.6 billion in bailout funds, while Freddie Mac has received $61.3 billion.

In its most recent estimate, the Congressional Budget Office said $400 billion will be needed to keep the companies going.

[ozymandius]

12. more info here

Fannie and Freddie Falling Off the Big Board

The mortgage financing giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are at last slipping into a form of obscurity. The companies will delist from the New York Stock Exchange under order of their federal watchdog. When they start trading in the penny stock market, investor attitudes may change — but the government fiction that the two are private companies almost certainly won’t.

Disappearing from the Big Board will make Fannie and Freddie less noticeable, though they will continue to file reports with regulators. The ranks of shareholders, who seem to have clung to some kind of option value by keeping the companies’ market capitalizations not far off $1 billion each, will no doubt be further reduced to those who can tolerate illiquid over-the-counter trading. But what perhaps really should happen — a purchase of the shares by the government — won’t.

That is because separate ownership is critical to the concept of keeping the debt and guarantee obligations of the two behemoths — more than $5 trillion combined — off the government’s books. The Treasury has agreed to pour money into Fannie and Freddie — about $140 billion so far, but with no limit — to keep their net worth above zero. That is in substance a full guarantee, but not one the government recognizes.

[Demeter]

64. Like Refusing to Acknowledge Your Illegitimate Children

but slipping them money in private.

[ozymandius]

9. Home building plunges, industrial output surges

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Housing starts hit a five-month low in May as a homebuyer tax credit expired while wholesale prices remained subdued, giving the Federal Reserve ample room to maintain its ultra-low interest rate policy.

The weak housing market data released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday contrasted with a separate report from the Fed that showed a surge in industrial output, highlighting the uneven nature of the economic recovery.

New home building fell 10 percent to an annual rate of 593,000 units, the lowest since December. A rise in mortgage purchase applications last week after five straight declines offered hope the post-tax credit falloff would be temporary.

In contrast to the housing weakness, industrial output surged 1.2 percent, partly due to a spike in utility production as rising temperatures prompted Americans to turn on air conditioners. Still, factory output rose a solid 0.9 percent.

The dour housing starts report and a warning from FedEx Corp (FDX.N) that costs related to pensions and retiree medical costs would hit its 2011 profits initially pushed stocks on Wall Street lower. However, key U.S. stock indices ended flat.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20100616/bs_nm/us_usa_economy

[Roland99]

14. Homebuying surges in Orlando (by 1)

I'm closing today at 3pm! FINALLY! 2 months 1 week after signing the contract.



:woohoo:

[Dr.Phool]

18. Congrats!

Nice looking house. I hope you're happy with it.

When's the housewarming party?

[Roland99]

40. The party? Every night!!

:beer:

[ozymandius]

19. Congratulations, Roland!

:woohoo: :toast: That's wonderful.

[Roland99]

41. Thanks, ozy!

Oh...I need to call AT&T and get service setup over there soon. Can't miss out on this place from the new digs! :)

[Tansy_Gold]

27. I remember when we cheered because you got the job.

Way to go, my friend! It looks like a HOME, not just a house.

:thumbsup:



Tansy Gold

[Roland99]

42. I know! I wasn't even looking to buy a house yet.

Was going to rent for another year but in the last 2 months I've cleared everything off my credit reports except my old bankruptcy and one unpaid state tax lien. My credit scores are the highest I think I've ever had them!

[Po_d Mainiac]

29. Nice! n/t

[AnneD]

30. Sweet digs......

Remember to take out flood and wind insurance on top of homeowners insurance. You get some stiff 'breezes' in June, July, August, September, and sometimes October, and November. Make sure you have those hurricane braces on your roof in the attic. Also keep an ax up there. A generator makes a nice house warming gift. Flying roaches won't kill you. Invest in plywood (cut them to your window size and number them).

Go Gators!

[Roland99]

38. Great tips!

Esp. the plywood. Hadn't thought of that.

There are two houses about to go up across from us and I'll scarf some plywood and other leftover materials. That's a start. :)

Already have the wind insurance. Didn't add flood, yet. In order for a claim to be filed under flood, something like the surrounding 2-3 acres has to also be under water and where we are if that happens then the whole state is in for a world of hurt!! About the highest elevation in Orange County is in that area.

[4dsc]

34. Is it worth what your paying for it?

My brother got out of Orlando in 2006 and sold his house for about $480,000. Its now listed in Zillow for about $300,000. Most homes I believe are still overpriced there.

[Roland99]

37. Yeah, I think it's a fair price

It's a new development and prices seem to be rather in line with what I would expect. I wanted a mortgage (PITI) well under one whole paycheck and this fits the bill nicely. Plus, we'll send in one extra payment per year (at least) against principal and knock at least 7 years off the loan.

My commute is only a half-mile shorter but will take less time (no more I-4!)

Can't wait to get the cordless rechargeable lawn mower with solar-powered battery charger! :)

[ozymandius]

44. Looks like you're set.

What a great plan you have there - all the way around.

I would confirm that there are no land mines in the mortgage papers that would penalize you for overpayment. There have been land mines in mortgage documents that would throw the interest rate from a fixed to a variable if the borrower overpays.

I wish you all the best success in sealing this deal.

[Roland99]

51. I will check on that for sure.

thanks.

[DemReadingDU]

47. Very nice!

I see 3-car garage, lucky you!

[Roland99]

52. Yeah...my daughter will be driving soon!

ACK!

But, for now, that's the kids' bikes side of things. :)

[Dappleganger]

54. Congrats from a fellow Floridian...

aside from the color, your home looks eerily similar to mine. ;) BTW, we really do love our house!

[bread_and_roses]

58. Many good wishes for happy days in new home

it looks lovely.

[Po_d Mainiac]

20. Output highest since 1996...Hmmm

http://www.mrswing.com/articles/Factory_Output_Continues_to_Expand.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MrSwing+(Daily+Day+and+Swing+Trading+Stock+Picks+-+Market+Commentary+-+Education+-+News)

Sounds good, but there's still that consumer comprising 70% of the economy thingy.

Strip utilities and the production of tools of war from the equation, and where are we really at? meh

[ozymandius]

10. Europe shares up for 7th day; Spanish auction helps

LONDON, June 17 (Reuters) - European shares were higher at midday on Thursday for the seventh session in a row to a near five-week high, after a key Spanish bond auction eased fears over the euro zone debt crisis and boosted banking shares.

Oil company BP (BP.L) jumped 7.7 percent after saying it would set up a $20 billion fund for damage claims from its Gulf of Mexico oil spill, sell assets and suspend dividend payments, removing uncertainty over the size of the fund.

The stock was still down 45 percent since the oil spill started in mid-April.

By 0938 GMT, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of top shares was up 0.7 percent at 1,046.95 points after falling to as low as 1,034.74 early on. The index is still down 5.9 percent from a mid-April peak, pulled by concerns about the euro zone debt crisis.

Spain sold just under its target amount of 3.5 billion euros ($4.3billion) of 10 and 30-year government bonds on Thursday, in an auction analysts said went well after the bonds cheapened considerably ahead of the sale.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSLDE63M18320100617

[ozymandius]

24. Spain is About to Make Trouble for German and French Banks

Ooh, this might get ugly.

The ECB rather firmly resisted the idea of releasing its recent stress test results on individual European banks. And with good reason: many observers suspect that some of the big German and French banks look less than robust. (And this is before we get to the obvious elephant in the room: since they were modeled on the too-bank-friendly US stress tests, even this measure is likely to be too permissive).

Desperate times are now producing desperate measures. Spanish firms are locked out of international credit markets. Its banks are getting funding from the ECB.

But why should this work? First, the pressure on Spain intensified with the downgrade of its government debt by Fitch. That was due in turn to the fact that Fitch sees that the severity of its austerity measures will lower tax receipts, making Spain a worse credit risk. This also affects banks, since it is national governments that backstop their banking systems. But the big cause for alarm was the validation of the idea that austerity might actually exacerbate budget crises, the opposite of their intent. And an economic slowdown isn’t very good for private sector creditworthiness either.

The danger of this move isn’t that the failure to make similar disclosures about French and German banks will lead to more doubts about them (if investors haven’t figured out yet that their delicate condition was the reason that the stress test results had been kept under wraps, they are denser than I realized), but that it will increase frictions among an already fractious eurozone leadership group. Although this is admittedly small beer in the overall scheme of things, one never knows in advance which straw will finally break the camel’s back.

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010/06/spain-is-about-to-make-trouble-for-german-and-french-banks.html

[Dr.Phool]

66. "The severity of the austerity measures will lower tax receipts"

"Making Spain a worse credit risk".

Do you think the IMF had that figured out? Next sell off national assets at fire sale prices?

[ozymandius]

11. U.K. Scraps FSA, Reversing System Set Up by Brown

June 17 (Bloomberg) -- Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne said he will abolish the Financial Services Authority and give most of its power to the Bank of England, undoing the regulatory system set up by Gordon Brown in 1997.

In the most sweeping changes to financial regulation since then, the watchdog will be wound down and replaced by three bodies over the next two years, the chancellor said. A Prudential Regulatory Authority will be created as a subsidiary of the central bank. Osborne will also set up a Financial Policy Committee at the bank and establish a consumer protection and markets agency.

Osborne, whose Conservative Party took power after the May 6 election, is delivering on a promise made almost a year ago to shake up the way the U.K.’s banks and markets are policed. He’s blamed the system established by former Labour Prime Minister Brown for failing to prevent a financial crisis that saddled taxpayers with liabilities of as much as 1.4 trillion pounds ($2.1 trillion) and plunged the economy into the worst recession since World War II.

Osborne’s plan scraps Brown’s tripartite system of regulation -- in which the central bank, FSA and Treasury shared responsibilities -- and places most of the onus on Bank of England Governor Mervyn King. Legislation to replace the FSA will be in place by 2012, Osborne said.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-06-17/u-k-scraps-fsa-reversing-system-set-up-by-brown-update2-.html

[Roland99]

15. Index Futures: Gonna be a bright, bright, bright bright sun-shiney day

S&P 500 1,115 +4.90 +0.44%
DOW 10,386 +42.00 +0.41%
NASDAQ 1,915 +9.25 +0.49%

[Roland99]

16. Elliot Wave predicts triple-digit Dow in 2016

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/elliot-wave-predicts-triple-digit-dow-2010-06-17

How bad? The clearest statement comes from the Elliott Wave Theorist, discussing a numerological technical theory with which it supplements the Wave Theory's complex patterns: "The only way for the developing configuration to satisfy a perfect set of Fibonacci time relationships is for the stock market to fall over the next six years and bottom in 2016."

"Stock market bulls and most economists think that a new bull market and economic recovery are underway. Most bears are looking for either a long sideways bear market à la 1966-1982, or a hyperinflationary run to infinity. Our Elliott Wave outlook opposes both of these scenarios. The most likely profile is a stock market crash of historic proportions."

Elliott Wave Theorist offers several reasons, including: "This bear market is of Supercycle degree, the biggest since 1720-1784. It should therefore include a decline deeper that the 89% decline of 1929-1932. A decline of 91.5% or more would carry it below 1,000."

There will be a short-term rally at some point, thinks Prechter, but it will be a trap: "The 7.25-year and 20-year cycles are both scheduled to top in 2012, suggesting that 2012 will mark the last vestiges of self-destructive hope. Then the final years of decline will usher in capitulation and finally despair."

[Po_d Mainiac]

22. Never happen

The Dow components will be substituted to screw the numbers upwards.

Now the S&P revisiting the devils domain, I believe.
YMMV

[DemReadingDU]

45. Never say never ;)

As I learned during my programming career, whenever someone said "It'll never happen, don't code for that", THAT Always Happened.
:)

[Roland99]

61. oh, geez. Ain't that the truth!

Users never cease to amaze me!

[Po_d Mainiac]

68. Really?

Shrub and Rummy will never be convicted
Turbo, chopper and Pu-pu-puttering Paul will never be convicted
The Wall St gang of 7 (TBTF) will never see a :FRSP:
Universal health-care will never be a reality

This could be a long list :popcorn:

[TalkingDog]

31. >the final years of decline will usher in capitulation and finally despair

If I've already capitulated in despair, does that mean I won't have to do it again?

[Po_d Mainiac]

36. Definition of despair

When you knock down all de pins with de second ball.

[Roland99]

43. lol

[TalkingDog]

46. Ba Dum Bump *rimshot*

Thank you, thank you ...I'll be here all week. Try the veal and be sure to tip your waitstaff.

[Demeter]

69. I Was Preaching the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics in Another Thread

It is the very definition of despair!

[Festivito]

17. Debt: 06/15/2010 13,078,420,280,010.67 (UP 35,272,010,674.19) (Tue)

(Up a lot. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,598,961,216,076.43 + 4,479,459,063,934.24
UP 26,653,914,221.49 + UP 8,618,096,452.70

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,231.22 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,480,362 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,259.29.
A family of three owes $126,777.87. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 21 reports in the last 30 to 32 days.
The average for the last 21 reports is 7,225,261,894.00.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,057,683,325.80.
The average for the last 32 days would be 4,741,578,117.94.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 176 reports in 258 days of FY2010 averaging 6.64B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 950 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.4 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/15/2010 13,078,420,280,010.67 BHO (UP 2,451,543,231,097.59 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,168,591,276,498.90 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,653,239,596,597.28 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
05/25/2010 +000,937,216,055.27 ------------********
05/26/2010 +001,057,190,066.84 ------------*********
05/27/2010 +015,241,764,354.27 ------------**********
05/28/2010 -000,294,414,430.12 ---
06/01/2010 +078,359,726,143.31 ------------********** Tue
06/02/2010 +000,523,171,733.61 ------------********
06/03/2010 +004,027,515,403.86 ------------*********
06/04/2010 +000,194,136,067.09 ------------********
06/07/2010 +000,055,958,918.33 ------------******* Mon
06/08/2010 -000,061,366,300.19 ----
06/09/2010 +000,374,218,915.72 ------------********
06/10/2010 -005,787,434,254.89 --
06/11/2010 -000,035,173,484.80 ----
06/14/2010 +000,237,116,126.71 ------------******** Mon
06/15/2010 +026,653,914,221.49 ------------**********

121,483,539,536.50 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4429049&mesg_id=4429610

[Festivito]

74. Debt: 06/16/2010 13,073,000,699,429.76 (DOWN 5,419,580,580.91) (Wed)

(Up a little. Good day.)

(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 8,599,140,401,634.61 + 4,473,860,297,795.15
UP 179,185,558.18 + DOWN 5,598,766,139.09

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 309-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.23 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,231.15 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.69, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 13 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 309,487,008 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 04/09/2010 15:49 -> 309,034,742
Currently, each of these Americans owe $42,240.87.
A family of three owes $126,722.61. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 33 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 6,650,496,326.96.
The average for the last 30 days would be 4,877,030,639.77.
The average for the last 33 days would be 4,433,664,217.97.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 177 reports in 259 days of FY2010 averaging 6.57B$ per report, 4.49B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 949 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 14.4 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
06/16/2010 13,073,000,699,429.76 BHO (UP 2,446,123,650,516.68 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,163,171,695,918.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof10 +1,639,218,799,266.68 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Linear Projection

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
05/26/2010 +001,057,190,066.84 ------------*********
05/27/2010 +015,241,764,354.27 ------------**********
05/28/2010 -000,294,414,430.12 ---
06/01/2010 +078,359,726,143.31 ------------********** Tue
06/02/2010 +000,523,171,733.61 ------------********
06/03/2010 +004,027,515,403.86 ------------*********
06/04/2010 +000,194,136,067.09 ------------********
06/07/2010 +000,055,958,918.33 ------------******* Mon
06/08/2010 -000,061,366,300.19 ----
06/09/2010 +000,374,218,915.72 ------------********
06/10/2010 -005,787,434,254.89 --
06/11/2010 -000,035,173,484.80 ----
06/14/2010 +000,237,116,126.71 ------------******** Mon
06/15/2010 +026,653,914,221.49 ------------**********
06/16/2010 +000,179,185,558.18 ------------********

120,725,509,039.41 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4430563&mesg_id=4430612

[ozymandius]

21. ‘Self Funding’ the SEC

From Barry Ritholtz:

Ann Woolner has a fascinating, counter-intuitive idea to reform the SEC. Give the agency more to do and freer rein. Oh, and let it fund itself.

“The Senate version of the optimistically named Restoring American Financial Stability Act would let the agency fund itself with the fees it collects from registrations and transactions. It’s an idea that SEC Chairman Mary Schapiro advocates and Senator Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, has pushed.

The downside is that it would remove leverage that Congress and the president have over the SEC by keeping them away from the agency’s purse strings. As with the Federal Reserve, SEC budgets would still be submitted to Congress, but lawmakers couldn’t cut them. ....

I like the idea. I also like the idea of paying SEC staff bonuses based on the fraud they uncover, monies recovered for investors, and fines. But there needs to be a balance so that investigators aren’t only pursuing the home run cases.

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/06/self-funding-the-sec/

more commentary and additional sources at link

[snot]

62. GREAT idea. And limit funding of the oil leasing agencies to revenue from FINES.

[TalkingDog]

26. Cross Post From GD: What's wrong with America?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x8578236

Too much and too little bureaucracy apparently.

[Tansy_Gold]

28. I liked the Emerson quote

It soooooooooooooooooooooooo applied to "friends" of ours in other fora. . .


;-)



TG

[TalkingDog]

33. Which is why the thread has dropped like a stone.. n/t

[ozymandius]

39. And why I have given it a little kick.

Jonestown needs more unfiltered light.

[TalkingDog]

48. Careful....you want them to harden off...not sear

Reality is a tough one. It is difficult to learn that placing your expectations and hopes solely in another person is generally a self-destructive endeavor.

We are spoon-fed romantic attachment from the time we first take a breath. We are taught that giving ourselves (body, mind, spirit) over to the other, be it religion, political cause or partner is a touchstone goal of being an adult. Clear-eyed optimism is possible. But it is more work than many are willing to undertake. Partly because no one has ever taught them how.

We are a dysfunctional society. I think, perhaps, a cleansing fire is needed so the forest can begin to regrow itself with fewer binding weeds.

[TalkingDog]

32. Hacker News: Discussion thread on trading algorithms

http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1438228

There are some interesting links and some funny exchanges:


OP: "I'm fully expecting to lose everything I invest"
Reply: You'll never get the taxpayers to cover your losses with an attitude like that.

and

I actually thought googling "bankruptcy engine" would yield some good results, but apparently not. Oh well.

[TalkingDog]

35. From SiriusBlog - Open Source: The Capitalists' Choice

http://siriusit.co.uk/blogs/16-jun-2010/open-source-capitalists-choice

Proprietary software is akin to the privatisation of the railways. It pays lip-service to the perceived efficiency benefits but if you look at it closely, you realise that the fundamental motivation of competition is absent. As a customer on the railway, you cannot choose to travel on whichever train operator you believe will give you the best service, because if you want to travel a certain route, there is only one operator available. If your daily commute involves that train line, the operator has you over a barrel. You can't realistically move house – and ask your employer to move offices – to an area where another operator has the franchise.


Basic argument: Creates or, at least, goads proprietary competition to excel.

[ozymandius]

49. What would happen if NAFTA were scrapped?

This is a buzzing question that has intrigued me over the past few weeks while doing a bit of reading in history, economics and law (three different books). News reports about labor conditions in China have also caused this question to buzz in my mind.

Historically, NAFTA's passage devastated Mexican corn farmers. Conversely, the agreement began a very swift dismantling of American textile manufacturing. Same for cars, plastic resin products and other staple consumer items. Canadian wood products in the form of raw materials and finished products (like kitchen cabinets) became abundantly supplied in the home improvement chains like Home Depot and Lowe's.

We also have a trade agreement with China dating from the same era that would also be altered through the scuttling of NAFTA. Overall, I am curious about your thoughts on who would benefit, and how. Conversely, I am curious about who would be harmed.

I will start the ball rolling with one hypothetical situation (that I do not believe is too far "out there"): NAFTA acted as a subsidy for manufacturers to relocate in Mexico through suppressing labor costs with the benefits of favorable tax structures and looser regulatory requirements. Now that these manufacturing plants have been established and ostensibly "paid for" would these facilities be able to survive if NAFTA's tariff-free trade agreements were lifted?

Would the local national economy be able to support these plants' output? What of American manufacturers (those who are left) and their sustainability? Could the industries devastated by NAFTA be reconstituted?

What say ye?

[AnneD]

59. Gee...

I feel so inadequate...

I have been pondering why an opera is any different than a musical, really? Operas never caught on in this country but musicals have flourished. And what are most Disney cartoons....musicals for kids (and smart adults). Mighty Mouse was the only operatic cartoon I know of and I trace my love of opera back to Mighty Mouse.

I am so overwhelmed these days that I prefer to ponder in the shallow end of the pool.
I think NAFT should be revoked, the Glass Amendment, the Bill of Rights, and the Geneva Convention be reinstated, she said as she splashed around on her floatie.

I also ponder the SPF value of crude and how much should be applied-but that is another story.

[Demeter]

65. It's Because of the Prejudice Against Sopranos

Who dies in the opera? The soprano, nearly always. As a soprano, that's why I never really liked opera. I preferred operetta. It was gay music with happy endings and some great singing for sops.

Musicals, like operettas before them, used to have strong soprano characters and happy endings, but then in the 60's the female parts switched to "belters" with loud chest voices, and even the happy endings started to disappear.

[Roland99]

50. 10:27am - umm...oopsies

Dow 10,349 -60 -0.58%
Nasdaq 2,296 -10 -0.43%
S&P 500 1,109 -6 -0.51%
GlobalDow 1,817 +0 +0.02%
Gold 1,248 +18 +1.43%
Oil 76.93 -0.74 -0.95%

[ozymandius]

53. Maybe traders got a look at the economic data.

And said what I said: "this sucks."

[Roland99]

55. Well, for now.

I'm sure tomorrow will be something rosy to get the bulls charging again!

[TalkingDog]

56. Now I KNOW the Universe is trying to tell me something.....

http://www.leadershipnow.com/leadingblog/2010/06/why_design_thinking_is_the_nex.html

The problem is getting stuck in any one stage. We tend to operate within a knowledge stage as opposed to moving across the knowledge stages. We need to explore and question, we need to exploit our solutions, even reducing them to a repeatable, efficient, formula where possible, but we need to be doing these things simultaneously.

The vast majority of businesses follow a common path. The company is birthed through a creative act that converts a mystery to a heuristic through intuitive thinking. It then hones and refines that heuristic through increasingly pervasive analytical thinking and enters a long phase in which the administration of business dominates. And in due course, a competitor stares at the mystery that provided the spark for this company, comes up with a more powerful heuristic and supplants the original business.

McDonalds did well for decades, but eventually the heuristic (Americans want a quick, convenient, tasty meal) changed (Americans want a healthier menu). The solution for McDonalds is to go back and rethink the mystery and develop new rules of thumb to guide them. A trip back through the knowledge funnel.

Avoiding this cycle is the job of the leader—a leader at any level. Martin writes, “CEOs must learn to think of themselves as the organization’s balancing force—the promoter of both exploitation and exploration; of both administration and invention.” This is design thinking. We need to develop our design thinking skills, analyze what’s working and why, and at the same time revisit the original mystery while considering entirely new mysteries. “The design thinker develops the capacity for observation, for seeing features that others may miss. The design thinker, in the words of novelist Saul Bellow, is ‘a first-class noticer.’” Always cycling through the knowledge funnel.

[Demeter]

70. Just Thinking Rationally Would be a Change

Something besides "Greed is Good".

[TalkingDog]

57. Misleading title, but useful links to lectures

http://www.accreditedonlinecolleges.com/blog/2010/100-search-engines-for-business-students/

The ones for Business & Finance start at #39 and go thru #62

[DemReadingDU]

60. DOJ: Nearly 500 arrests in mortgage fraud probe

6/17/10 DOJ: Nearly 500 arrests in mortgage fraud probe

WASHINGTON – The Justice Department on Thursday announced a major crackdown on mortgage fraud, disclosing that investigators have made nearly 500 arrests since March.

The nationwide probe involves 1,215 criminal defendants in cases that involve more than $2.3 billion in losses.

The Justice Department also has engaged in civil enforcement actions to recover more than $147 million in the operation.

Attorney General Eric Holder said the government will use every law enforcement tool available to prosecute those who prey on vulnerable homeowners.

Hundreds of FBI agents are working on task forces with other law enforcement agencies, FBI Director Robert Mueller said in prepared remarks.

The Justice Department said that the probe, called Operation Stolen Dreams, has resulted in significant criminal cases in Chico, Calif.; Miami; Detroit; Duluth, Minn.; New Jersey, and Atlanta.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100617/ap_on_bi_ge/us_mortgage_fraud


I wonder in those 500 arrests, if there were any CEOs, hedge fund managers, those multi-million dollar scumbags?

[DemReadingDU]

67. Todd Harrison: "We Are in the Eye of the Storm"

6/17/10 Todd Harrison: "We Are in the Eye of the Storm"

"While the recent price action has been docile, I believe we're in the eye of the storm," Todd Harrison, CEO of Minyanville.com wrote yesterday. Todd joined me this morning to discuss why he thinks the current environment will prove to be "a relative calm between the first phase of the financial crisis and the cumulative comeuppance that'll flush -- and perhaps reset -- the system."

As with other pundits, most notably George Soros, Harrison says the subprime implosion of 2007-08 was merely "phase one" of the crisis. Since then, "historic efforts" by global policymakers temporarily revived the financial markets but didn't cure the underlying problems, he says.

Rather than providing "medicine that cures the financial disease" - debt destruction or restructuring and asset deflation - policymakers keep pushing "drugs that mask the symptoms," Harrison warns.

Citing the "cumulative imbalances" in the financial system (key word: "cumulative") and interconnectedness of the global economy, Harrison says the big question is: "How long can this continue before we're allowed to take free market medicine?"

Given the "big picture concerns" cited above and detailed here, Harrison is still (still!) holding 100% cash in his long-term account, something he first discussed here two years ago.

more...
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/todd-harrison-%22we-are-in-the-eye-of-the-storm%22-505273.html?tickers=^DJI,^GSPC,SPY,FDX,^BKX,XLF,^DJT

[Demeter]

71. "And then a miracle occurs"

[TalkingDog]

72. omg I've been looking for that cartoon for AGES!

You can't find it by typing the punchline in a search engine....And I couldn't remember the dialog.

Thank you.....

[Demeter]

73. That 's exactly how I found it--You have to include the word "Image"