STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, January 18, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, January 18, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON January 14, 2011

Dow 11,787.38 +55.48 (+0.47%)
Nasdaq 2,755.30 +20.01 (+0.73%)
S&P 500 1,293.24 +9.48 (+0.73%)
10-Yr Bond... 3.30 -0.03 (-0.30%)
30-Year Bond 4.51 -0.02 (-0.16%)

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Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 11

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This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Today's Reports

Jan 18 08:30 Empire Manufacturing Jan 12.0 12.0 10.57
Jan 18 09:00 Net Long-Term TIC Flows Nov NA NA $27.6B
Jan 18 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index Jan 15 16 16

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm

[Pale Blue Dot]

27. Empire Manufacturing Misses, Prints At 11.92 On Expectations Of 12.50, Prior Revised From 10.57 To 9

US Empire Manufacturing (Jan) M/M 11.92 vs. Exp. 12.50 (Previous number getting the traditional BLS treatment and being revised from 10.57 to 9.89 to make the number a beat). Important Empire index components: Employment: 8.4 vs. Prev. -3.4; an improvement in New Orders: 12.4 vs. Prev. 2.6; and the most critical and inflationary one: Prices Paid: 35.79 vs. Prev. 28.40. Also no surprise: inventories, that good old stand by jumps from -15.91 to 4.21. From the release: "the most widely cited factor restraining hiring plans was low expected sales growth (31 percent)."

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/empire-manufacturing-misses-prints-1192-expectations-1250-prior-revised-1057-989

[Pale Blue Dot]

39. China Net Seller Of US Treasurys, Remains Top Holder

WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--China was a net seller of U.S. Treasurys in November, slimming its holdings but remaining the largest foreign holder, the Treasury Department said Tuesday.

The data on cross-border capital flows comes just hours ahead Chinese President Hu Jintao's official visit to Washington, where he and his delegation are expected to discuss a range of economic and geopolitical issues with President Barack Obama and members of his cabinet. One priority will be rebalancing a distorted trade and capital relationship with China.

Overall, foreigners were net buyers of long-term U.S. financial assets in November, according to the monthly Treasury International Capital report, known as TIC.

China's holdings fell $11.2 billion to $895.6 billion, following net buying of more than $23 billion in October, its largest position in nearly a year. The data follows a rise in the value of China's foreign-exchange reserves by $199.3 billion in the fourth quarter, bringing total reserves at the end of 2010 to $2.85 trillion.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110118-708079.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

45. The US NAHB Housing Market Index stays flat

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The National Association of Home Builders of the US published today the Housing Market Index unchanged in January at 16, neglecting a market forecast indicating it would tick up to 17.

The official release features David Crowe, NAHB Chief Economist, stating: "The HMI and its subcomponent indexes are holding steady following a below-expectations finish in 2010 <...> At this point, housing remains on the sidelines of a weak economic recovery.."

http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2011-01/the-us-nahb-housing-market-index-stays-flat.aspx?storyid=53596

[Pale Blue Dot]

2. Oil lingers near $91 a barrel in Asia

BANGKOK – Oil futures hovered near $91 a barrel Tuesday in Asia, largely shrugging off a higher OPEC demand forecast as trading in the February contract dwindled ahead of its expiration.

Benchmark crude for February delivery was down 44 cents at $91.10 a barrel at midday Bangkok time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Floor trading was closed in New York on Monday due to the Martin Luther King holiday. The contract, which last settled in New York on Friday at $90.54, expires in a day and trading is already shifting to the March contract.

Oil prices got some support from the monthly report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries which raised slightly the forecast for demand for its crude.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. I couldn't sleep, so I posted this early.

I'm anticipating another snow day here in CT; it will be a tough day if I'm wrong. :-)

[Demeter]

6. Morning PBD and Friends

there's a lot of that going around....insomnia, and snow.

We are just frozen in Michigan.

[Tansy_Gold]

14. No snow here

Checking in with 50 degrees in the pre-dawn dark. Should hit 75 by this afternoon.


TG, TT

[DemReadingDU]

16. We have a heat wave - 38!

The snow on the ground today should melt, just in time for new snow on Thursday
:(

[Demeter]

44. If it keeps raining, we won't have any snow left, either--it's half gone already

but if it goes down to 18F tonight as promised, and lower tomorrow, it will be a skating rink...

[Demeter]

17. I must update that last--Freezing Rain

Also, the trash pickup was not delayed by MLK Day....

[Pale Blue Dot]

25. We got a couple of inches here

and now it's turning to freezing rain. It's getting kind of old - I'm actually getting tired of snow days!

[xchrom]

4. I see - Oy another snow day. Best to you.

[Festivito]

5. Debt: 01/13/2011 14,007,216,975,377.59 (DOWN 3,172,512,733.97) (Thu, DOWN some.)

(Rain making icy roads. Other than that, it's a good day.)
Yeh, that's the ticket.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,377,204,236,563.68 + 4,630,012,738,813.91
DOWN 5,996,045,152.69 + UP 2,823,532,418.72

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,214.04 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.64, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,134,592 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,019.8.
A family of three owes $135,059.4. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 6,633,325,776.19.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,306,660,620.95.
The average for the last 31 days would be 5,135,478,020.27.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 73 reports in 105 days of FY2011 averaging 6.10B$ per report, 4.24B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 738 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.0 and 17.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/13/2011 14,007,216,975,377.59 BHO (UP 3,380,339,926,464.51 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,445,593,944,485.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,548,969,426,069.69 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/24/2010 -000,001,321,466.66 -----
12/27/2010 -000,059,144,170.26 ---- Mon
12/28/2010 +001,124,227,282.97 ------------*********
12/29/2010 +000,165,778,043.38 ------------********
12/30/2010 +000,091,969,590.77 ------------*******
12/31/2010 +062,732,309,679.32 ------------**********
01/03/2011 -005,396,108,430.64 -- Mon
01/04/2011 -000,085,302,113.98 ----
01/05/2011 -000,029,576,179.10 ----
01/06/2011 -001,749,774,139.62 --
01/07/2011 +000,022,074,863.06 ------------*******
01/10/2011 -000,254,217,892.29 --- Mon
01/11/2011 +000,490,152,520.38 ------------********
01/12/2011 -000,273,054,954.79 ---
01/13/2011 -005,996,045,152.69 --

50,781,967,479.85 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4695124&mesg_id=4695682

[Festivito]

62. Debt: 01/14/2011 14,007,943,536,871.15 (UP 726,561,493.56) (Fri, UP a little.)

(Good day.)
That's the ticket, where is it.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,377,350,492,041.16 + 4,630,593,044,829.99
UP 146,255,477.48 + UP 580,306,016.08

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 311-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,213.97 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.64, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,141,792 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,021.09.
A family of three owes $135,063.28. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 24 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 24 reports is 6,473,091,914.97.
The average for the last 30 days would be 5,178,473,531.98.
The average for the last 31 days would be 5,011,425,998.69.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 74 reports in 106 days of FY2011 averaging 6.03B$ per report, 4.21B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 737 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.0 and 17.8T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
01/14/2011 14,007,943,536,871.15 BHO (UP 3,381,066,487,958.07 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,446,320,505,979.40 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,536,858,346,061.14 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
12/27/2010 -000,059,144,170.26 ---- Mon
12/28/2010 +001,124,227,282.97 ------------*********
12/29/2010 +000,165,778,043.38 ------------********
12/30/2010 +000,091,969,590.77 ------------*******
12/31/2010 +062,732,309,679.32 ------------**********
01/03/2011 -005,396,108,430.64 -- Mon
01/04/2011 -000,085,302,113.98 ----
01/05/2011 -000,029,576,179.10 ----
01/06/2011 -001,749,774,139.62 --
01/07/2011 +000,022,074,863.06 ------------*******
01/10/2011 -000,254,217,892.29 --- Mon
01/11/2011 +000,490,152,520.38 ------------********
01/12/2011 -000,273,054,954.79 ---
01/13/2011 -005,996,045,152.69 --
01/14/2011 +000,146,255,477.48 ------------********

50,929,544,423.99 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4700543&mesg_id=4700621

[Demeter]

7. China’s lending hits new heights

The volume of overseas loans by two banks indicates how Beijing is forging new patterns of globalisation, as part of a push to scale back dependency on western export markets

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/IOCBMM/0GRBX8/HI3M9/YH94TG/40J084/PJ/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=18

[Demeter]

8. States warned of $2,500bn pensions shortfall

US public pensions face a shortfall of $2,500bn that will force state and local governments to sell assets and make deep cuts to services

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/IOCBMM/0GRBX8/HI3M9/YH94TG/2696BK/PJ/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=18

BECAUSE RAISING TAX REVENUES MAKES TOO MUCH SENSE...

[Demeter]

9. Facebook blow for Goldman’s US clients LOUD TRUMPETS!

Goldman Sachs scrapped an offer for its wealthy US clients to participate in a $1.5bn investment in Facebook, dealing a blow to the controversial private financing

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/LVA6WW/TPY32K/EKRAI/D4835W/72NAZQ/OS/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=18

[Roland99]

33. Posted that in LBN yesterday

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4699699&mesg_id=4699699


they're up to something.

[Demeter]

38. The Goldman Uncertainty Principle of Securities Regulation

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/01/the-goldman-uncertainty-theorem-of-securities-regulation.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

I could not let this remark pass without comment. From the Wall Street Journal:

"Goldman Sachs Group Inc. slammed the door on U.S. clients hoping to invest in a private offering of shares in Facebook Inc., because it said the intense media spotlight left the deal in danger of violating U.S. securities laws."

On the surface, this looks like doublespeak of a very high order. The US is a rule based legal system, which means a violation of securities laws is a violation of securities laws, or more precisely, a violation of law can be determined by mapping a fact set against statutes, regulation, and case law. So the idea that legality has anything to do with media coverage is spurious.

But perversely, Goldman’s truthiness is an accurate account of the real state of affairs. Goldman sees that securities regs operate in the world of Schrodinger’s cat, where legality is in an indeterminate state until someone takes the trouble to look. And that remains true of what happened during much of the crisis. Tom Adams and I have written long form of the abuses that took place in CDOs, including probable market manipulation, lack of arm’s length pricing, and collusion by CDO managers, and we have argued separately that CDOs were the driver of the toxic phase of the subprime bubble. But no one seems willing to go there because the forensic work looks to be too daunting.

So the corollary of the Goldman uncertainty principle is: make anything so complicated that mere mortals are deterred from understanding a product or a business practice, and no one will open the box wide enough to see whether it is legal or not.

IN OTHER WORDS, THEY WERE CAUGHT, BEFORE THE STING PLAYED OUT AND THE "PROFITS" DISAPPEARED INTO ANNUAL BONUS CHECKS...

[Roland99]

41. The suckers will now have different accents but GS still reaps in the profits for doing "God's work"

[AnneD]

57. Getting that much money ....

not in dollars-sounds like a hedge to me.

[Roland99]

63. a late-minute switch to wanting to get paid in non-US dollars?

[sam kane]

64. interesting, is GS joining restaurants worldwide? nt.

nt

[Demeter]

10. Tirade against M Stanley goes viral in China

A prominent Chinese client’s tirade against the bank on the country’s largest microblogging service has gone viral

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/LVA6WW/TPY32K/EKRAI/D4835W/18Q686/OS/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=18

[Demeter]

11. Opec lifts output as crude flirts with $100

Opec is quietly increasing its production as oil prices flirt with $100 a barrel, the western countries’ oil watchdog said. The revelation by the International Energy Agency comes in spite of a string of public comments from Opec countries such as Iran and the UAE suggesting that there was no need for more oil and playing down the impact of high oil prices.

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/8P1R88/KEZIM5/EKRAI/JI2H84/FXBIOS/KI/t?a1=2011&a2=1&a3=18

[Demeter]

12. 10,000 GMAC Foreclosures Stopped in Maryland

http://news.firedoglake.com/2011/01/16/10000-gmac-foreclosures-stopped-in-maryland/

In a major ruling Friday, a coalition of nonprofit defense lawyers and consumer protection advocates in Maryland successfully got over 10,000 foreclosure cases managed by GMAC Mortgage tossed out, because affidavits in the cases were signed by Jeffrey Stephan, the infamous GMAC “robo-signer” who attested to the authenticity of foreclosure documents without any knowledge about them, as well as signing other false statements.

The University of Maryland Consumer Protection Clinic and Civil Justice, Inc., a nonprofit, filed the class action lawsuit, arguing that any case using Jeffrey Stephan as a signer was illegitimate and must be dismissed. In court Friday, GMAC agreed to dismiss every case in Maryland relying on a Stephan affidavit. They can refile foreclosure actions on the close to 10,000 homes, but only at their own expense, and subject to new Maryland regulations which require mandatory mediation between borrower and lender before moving to foreclosure. Civil Justice and the Consumer Protection Clinic also want any cases with affidavits from Xee Moua of Wells Fargo, who has also admitted to robo-signing, thrown out, but that case has not yet been settled.

This was not the plan of GMAC and other banks caught using robo-signers last year. They hoped to undergo a pause in proceedings, run a quick “double-check” and then issue substitute documents in the same cases. That would have been a much more rapid solution for the banks and would have resulted in many more foreclosures. Now GMAC has to go back and basically file the entire case all over again, meaning they have to give notice of foreclosure to the borrower, engage the borrower in modification options, and basically run through the whole process from the beginning. They cannot use the shortcut solution, thanks to the class action suit filed. GMAC’s dismissal of every foreclosure in Maryland shows their doubts they would have won the class action.

The Consumer Protection Clinic at the U. of Maryland is a class taught by Peter Holland. Rather than just read and lecture about foreclosure fraud and consumer protection law, Holland has the class join motions, prepare cross-examinations and legitimately get involved in the cases. It reminds me of the class of Alan Dershowitz depicted in the film Reversal of Fortune, or the Medill Innocence Project investigating wrongful convictions at Northwestern. Given the national scope of foreclosure fraud, you can imagine classes like this springing up all over the country...

[xchrom]

13. +1

[Tansy_Gold]

15. Indeed n/t

[Demeter]

18. One Good Cartoon Deserves Another

http://imgsrv.gocomics.com/dim/?fh=08934ab7287824ebf232d71641a04831

[Demeter]

19. German firm's CEO removed over WikiLeaks cable

http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2011/01/18/eu_germany_ohb_wikileaks/index.html

...OHB-System last year won a euro566 million ($754 million) contract to build the first 14 satellites for Galileo, Europe's planned rival to the U.S. Global Positioning System, or GPS.

Galileo claims it will be technologically superior to the U.S. Global Positioning System because it will provide more accurate locations for cars, ships and people using navigation devices.

However, the cable published by Aftenposten quoted Smutny as saying during a visit to the U.S. Embassy in Berlin: "I think Galileo is a stupid idea that primarily serves French interests."

...OHB-System AG said late Monday that the supervisory board decided to revoke Berry Smutny's appointment as CEO. It said the firm "saw no alternative to this decision in order to effectively avert any further damage to the company."


WELL, THAT'S....INTERESTING. I HOPE OHB TAKES A BATH FOR IGNORING ITS CEO LIKE THAT.

[Demeter]

20. Ex Tunisia President's Wife Left with 1.5 Tons of Gold: Report

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41115532

..."It seems that the wife of Ben Ali left with some gold, 1.5 tons or 45 million euros worth,” a French politician told the paper. But a central bank official denied receiving verbal or written orders for gold withdrawals, adding that the country's gold reserves "have not moved," Le Monde said. An official from the Elysée told Le Monde that "this information comes directly from Tunisia, in particular the Central Bank. It seems to be pretty much confirmed.”

Trabelsi took a flight to Dubai, before heading to Jeddah. It is still unclear how Ben Ali left Tunisia. According to Italian sources, reports suggest the former president’s airplane was in Maltese airspace without the authority to land. There is also speculation that Ben Ali may have left Tunisia by helicopter to Malta and then taken his plane from there.

The French government believes the Libyan secret service may have helped Ben Ali flee in order to avoid violence, Le Monde reported.

THAT'S ONE--I WANT TO HEAR ABOUT BANKSTERS DOING THIS!

[AnneD]

59. And you can bet....

they are probably doing it as we speak. I would like to see an audit of the treasury, esp our gold bullion reserve. I am not a gold bug per se but I don't don't want fiat money that cannot be backed up. In other words, I have little faith in our money...and I live here.

[Demeter]

67. Just so they leave, Anne

That's all I ask...

[Demeter]

21. The Imagination Trade, or the Tinkerbell Market 2.0

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/01/the-imagination-trade-or-the-tinkerbell-market-2-0.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

I’ve refrained from discussing the stock market for quite some time, in part because this is not an investment website and in part because I find the netherworld of credit more interesting. But a big reason of late is that the stock market has become so utterly unhinged from fundamentals that anyone opining on it, other than momentum trades and technicians with particularly good crystal balls, is likely to look silly.

We seem to be in a toxic replay of what I called the Tinkerbell market in 2007 and 2008: if the officialdom can get enough people to applaud, the economy will live. They weren’t too successful back then, but the crisis has appeared to have upped the game of the Powers That Be in talking up the price of financial instruments. And having the Fed at ready to provide boatloads of liquidity should anything go awry appears to have put much of the world in “don’t fight the Fed” mode.

Market action is looking a tad manic, yet the dot-com mania proved that unwarranted optimism can persist far longer than cooler heads deem possible. Hedge fund leverage, for instance, is allegedly back to pre-crisis highs. And various market commentators are pointing to worrisome echoes of dot-com type preferences, where stocks amenable to fantasy, or what Bill Fleckenstein calls “imagination” are preferable to ones with clearly better prospects...

[Pale Blue Dot]

22. S&P 500 Futures Gain After Europe Pledge; Nasdaq-100 Futures Fall on Apple

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures signaled a second day of gains for the gauge as European finance chiefs pledged further support for the region’s most-indebted countries. Nasdaq-100 Index futures slid.

Futures on the S&P 500 expiring in March advanced 0.2 percent from the close on Jan. 14 at 7:03 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures climbed 0.3 percent and Nasdaq-100 futures slipped 0.4 percent.

Apple, which makes up 21 percent of the Nasdaq-100, slid 4.6 percent to $332.50 in pre-market trading after Chief Executive Officer Steve Jobs took a leave of absence to focus on his health.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-18/s-p-500-futures-gain-after-europe-pledge-nasdaq-100-futures-fall-on-apple.html

Apple makes up 21% of the Nasdaq???

[Demeter]

23. Reinforcing America’s Social Safety Net

http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Issues/Life-and-Money/2011/01/17/Reinforcing-Americas-Social-Safety-Net.aspx

he recent appointment of Bruce Reed, the Executive Director of President Obama's National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, as Vice President Biden’s Chief of Staff is the latest signal that the administration plans to endorse many of the Commission’s recommendations. Since one target for deficit reduction appears to be Social Security and social insurance programs more generally, it’s essential to understand the important role that social insurance plays in the economy.

There is no economic system yet discovered that can outperform capitalism when it comes to producing a vibrant, growing, dynamic, and innovative economy. Capitalism provides the goods and services that people want, for the most part, at the lowest possible cost.

However, while capitalism delivers a high average rate of output growth, it is also vulnerable to business cycles, and the busts that inevitably follow the booms can be quite costly. People who diligently show up for work every day can suddenly and unexpectedly lose their jobs as poor economic conditions cause businesses to fail. In addition, technology, globalization, or changes in tastes can leave people jobless and without the means to support their families even though they did nothing to deserve such a fate. Social insurance is a way to ease the costs for the unlucky workers who are hurt by the tides of capitalism.

In a capitalist system, as people compete with others to try and get ahead, they are motivated in ways that yield benefits for themselves and for the larger society. This is part of the edge that capitalism has over other systems. However, some people are unable to compete on an acceptable footing due to illness or old age. Social insurance can help here as well....

[Demeter]

24. Cumulative Output Loss

http://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2011/01/cumulative_outp.html

..lest we forget how much the mindless deregulation and irresponsible fiscal policy induced-crisis <1> <2> <3> and great recession has cost us in terms of lost output, and how difficult the road to recovery remains. (Very important as certain forces seek to gut financial regulation by way of "defunding". <4>)

In our forthcoming book <5>, Jeffry Frieden and I tried to tabulate the likely costs of lost output associated with the Great Recession that followed the financial crisis driven by financial deregulation, lax fiscal and monetary policy, and ample capital supplies abroad. Using the January 2010 CBO projections, we calculated the cumulative GDP loss (relative to potential GDP) from 2007Q4-2014Q1 at 3.53 trillion Ch.2005$, 11349 per person (Ch.2005$), or about $12604 in current dollars).

Macroeconomic conditions, as well as the projections of potential output, have changed somewhat since I undertook that calculation earlier this year, so I decided to update the calculation. I present the estimated cumulative loss from 2008Q1-2010Q3, as well as the cumulative loss from 2010Q4-2011Q4...

GRAPHIC PORN AND MORE AT LINK

[Demeter]

26. The 'new normal' of unemployment DEAN bAKER

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/jan/14/economics-economy

Mainstream economists are preaching a decade of pain and historically high joblessness – as if no alternative policy existed...

...The fact that the overwhelming majority of economists in policy positions failed to see the signs of this disaster coming, and supported the policies that brought it on, did not seem to be a major concern for most of the economists at the convention. Instead, they seemed more intent on finding ways in which they could get ordinary workers to accept lower pay and reduced public benefits in the years ahead. This would lead to better outcomes in their models.

The conventional wisdom among economists is that the economy will be forced to go through a long adjustment process before it can get back to more normal rates of unemployment. The optimists put the return to normal at 2015, while the pessimists would put the year as 2018, and possibly, even later...
Furthermore, many economists believe that the new normal will be worse than the old normal. The unemployment rate bottomed out at 4.5% before the housing bubble began to burst. If we go back to 2000, the United States had a year-round average unemployment rate of just 4.0%. The optimists now envision that normal would be 5.0% unemployment, while the pessimists put the new normal at 6.0% unemployment and perhaps higher. As a point of reference, every percentage point rise in the unemployment corresponds to more than 2 million additional people without jobs...The prospect of an extended period of higher unemployment would be easier to accept if there was a good argument as to why the economy cannot achieve the same levels of employment as it had in the recent past. Economists really don't have much basis for this lowering of expectations of their own and the economy's performance...The main argument seems to stem from the work of two economists, Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff, who have examined financial crises around the world. Their analysis finds that, in most cases, it has taken countries roughly a decade to recover from the effects of a financial crisis and return to a more normal growth path...

The methods for generating demand are not a mystery. It basically amounts to the government spending more money until the private sector is again in a position to fuel demand. The fears of deficits and debt that the pessimists promote stem from a misunderstanding of basic economics. Deficits can be a problem when they crowd out private economic activity. In a severe slump like the current one, this crowding-out is not a realistic fear; there are vast amounts of idle resources. Furthermore, there is no reason that the debt needs to pose an interest burden on taxpayers in the future. The Fed and other central banks can simply buy and hold the debt, refunding the interest payments to the government.

If economists did their job, they would be pushing policies to get the economy quickly back to full employment. Instead, they just repeat lines about how "we" will just have to accept some rough times. Unfortunately, no one ever asks the economists who preach austerity how much time they expect to spend in the unemployment lines.

[Demeter]

28. The Anti-Regulators Are the “Job Killers” William K. "Bill" Black

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2011/01/the-anti-regulators-are-the-job-killers/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29

The new mantra of the Republican Party is the old mantra — regulation is a “job killer.” It is certainly possible to have regulations kill jobs, and when I was a financial regulator I was a leader in cutting away many dumb requirements. But we have just experienced the epic ability of the anti-regulators to kill well over ten million jobs. Why then is there not a single word from the new House leadership about investigations to determine how the anti-regulators did their damage? Why is there no plan to investigate the fields in which inadequate regulation most endangers jobs? While we’re at it, why not investigate the areas in which inadequate regulation allows firms to maim and kill. This column addresses only financial regulation.

Deregulation, desupervision, and de facto decriminalization (the three “des”) created the criminogenic environment that drove the modern U.S. financial crises. The three “des” were essential to create the epidemics of accounting control fraud that hyper-inflated the bubble that triggered the Great Recession. “Job killing” is a combination of two factors — increased job losses and decreased job creation. I’ll focus solely on private sector jobs — but the recession has also been devastating in terms of the loss of state and local governmental jobs.

From 1996-2000, for example, annual private sector gross job increases rose from roughly 14 million to 16 million while annual private sector gross job losses increased from 12 to 13 million. The annual net job increases in those years, therefore, rose from two million to three million. Over that five year period, the net increase in private sector jobs was over 10 million. One common rule of thumb is that the economy needs to produce an annual net increase of about 1.5 million jobs to employ new entrants to our workforce, so the growth rate in this era was large enough to make the unemployment and poverty rates fall significantly.

The Great Recession (which officially began in the third quarter of 2007) shows why the anti-regulators are the premier job killers in America. Annual private sector gross job losses rose from roughly 12.5 to a peak of 16 million and gross private sector job gains fell from approximately 13 to 10 million. As late as March 2010, after the official end of the Great Recession, the annualized net job loss in the private sector was approximately three million (that job loss has now turned around, but the increases are far too small)...

The anti-regulators subverted the rule of law and allowed elite frauds to loot with impunity. Why isn’t the new House leadership investigating that disgrace as one of their top priorities? Why is the new House leadership so eager to repeat the job killing mistakes of taking the regulatory cops off their beat?

[Roland99]

36. Trying to get most of America to realize that is an effort in futility.

The GOP has done a masterful job of turning their faults into those of the Dems' and the people have fallen for it.

[Pale Blue Dot]

29. Sudan Next To Succumb To Bernanke's Inflationary Experiment, As Country Threatens Revolution Over

Surging Food Prices

About a month ago, some took offense at our characterization of the Chair-hewlettpackard-man as a "bearded mutant-cum-supreme genocidal overlord" after we predicted to the dot that his monetary policy would eventually lead to a global, well, genocide, presumably first in the developing world. Following riots, self-immolations and outright revolutions in Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan, Yemen and Egypt, in the span of a few shorts weeks, we believe we have been once again validated. Putting the period in any debate of what Bernanke's runaway money printing means to the life-expectancy of increasing number of people, is the latest news coming out of Sudan where "security forces on Tuesday arrested opposition leader Hassan al-Turabi and eight other party officials after they called for a "popular revolution" if Khartoum did not reverse price rises." And since economic slack in Sudan is roughly in line with that of the abovementioned other 5 countries, it is safe to say that the bulk of this move is speculation frenzy related, which in turn is purely a function of pervasive and free global liquidity. And this is still just the beginning. As Bernanke will not stop before the Dow hits roughly 36,000 expect these kinds of headlines to be an hourly occurrence.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/sudan-next-succumb-bernankes-inflationary-experiment-country-threatens-revolution-over-surgi

[Demeter]

32. I'm not convinced Tunisia can be linked to QE2

It's more likely that the banksters in general are behind it, and as Bernanke is behind them, carrying the water, while Obama calls off the cops, it's a little more subtle and conspiratorial than just laying it all at Bernanke's feet.

Both Bernanke and Obama and Geithner, too, are tools of the banksters.

And they will all get what's coming to them, and deserve it.

[Demeter]

30. In Corrupt Global Food System, Farmland Is the New Gold

http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=54119

Famine-hollowed farmers watch trucks loaded with grain grown on their ancestral lands heading for the nearest port, destined to fill richer bellies in foreign lands. This scene has become all too common since the 2008 food crisis...

On Wednesday, U.S.-based Cargill, the world's largest agricultural commodities trader, announced a tripling of profits. The firm generated 1.49 billion dollars in three months between September and November 2010.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Bills pay a return of less than one percent.

"We have set up a global food system that supports speculation. And with markets, we can't get speculators out of the food business," said Lester Brown, an agricultural policy expert and founder of the Washington- based Earth Policy Institute.

"Farmland is better gold than gold for speculators," Brown told IPS.

[Pale Blue Dot]

31. US public pensions face $2,500bn pensions shortfall

US public pensions face a shortfall of $2,500bn that will force state and local governments to sell assets and make deep cuts to services, according to the former chairman of New Jersey’s pension fund.

The severe US economic recession has cast a spotlight on years of fiscal mismanagement, including chronic underfunding of retirement promises.

“States face cost pressure, most prominently from retirement benefits and Medicaid ,” Orin Kramer told the Financial Times. “One consequence is that asset sales and privatisation will pick up. The very unfortunate consequence is that various safety nets for the most vulnerable citizens will be cut back.”

Mr Kramer, an influential figure in the Democratic party and still a member of the investment council that oversees the New Jersey pension fund, has been an outspoken critic of public pension accounting, which allows for the averaging of investment gains and losses over a number of years through a process called “smoothing”.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dd3ff74c-2272-11e0-b6a2-00144feab49a.html#axzz1BOaieFsZ

[AnneD]

65. GADZOOKS....

the jig is up.

We must be in the normalcy bias...

[Pale Blue Dot]

34. Wow! MUST READ: Disinformation Fog Intensifies As Economic Turmoil Develops

In the past few years, the concept of economic globalism has revealed itself as quite the Trojan horse; once posing as the next step in the evolution of “free market” capitalism and the savior of third world nations striving for development status, now revealed as a fiscal plague spreading delirium and destruction wherever it touches ground. There is no denying that the economies of the world are irrevocably tied to one another, but until recently, this was always thought of as a “good thing” in mainstream financial circles. Today, the great failings of engineered interdependency are painfully apparent. The EU’s many peripheral nations are dropping one after another like flies in a fog of DDT, rising economies in Asia are bloated with investment capital escaping from debt default in the West, causing impressive levels of inflation, and the U.S. is on the verge of a currency implosion as the Federal Reserve opens the floodgates of fiat in a bid to hide our system’s extreme destabilization and maintain what little international faith is left in our ability to service our rampant liabilities. Globalism has led us to disaster…

Of course, this disaster is not quite so obvious if you only follow the MSM’s version of events, or the pithy, watered down observations of mainstream economists, central bank officials, and puppet politicians. In fact, it’s difficult for the average person only mildly versed in economics to understand just what is going on! The closer we get to the edge of the ravine, the deeper the deception becomes. Most Americans feel the danger intuitively, and see the warning signs in their local communities, but clear, concise information in the midst of this ‘Gordian Knot’ of lies is difficult to come by.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner claims that the Fed’s quantitative easing programs are no threat to the dollar and that our country “will not engage in devaluation”, all while commodity and energy prices skyrocket to record levels and numerous nations threaten to dump the Greenback as the world reserve currency. China claims that their inflation is manageable, releasing CPI data that is even more arbitrary and skewed as our own, while the Chinese masses grow louder in their anger over a lack of purchasing power to match exploding housing and food prices. The U.S. blames the lack of global recovery on China’s undervalued Yuan and its unfair trade imbalance. China blames the lack of global recovery on the overprinting of the dollar. Europe sits across the Atlantic hoping both China and the U.S. will keep printing and sending currency care packages to keep the EU afloat, all while claiming every three months or so that the “crisis has passed”.

So, what’s the truth in all of this?

In the following, I will attempt to dismantle the latest disinformation campaigns, explaining the most important factors surrounding the developing calamity between the world’s major economic powers in the easiest terms possible; including how these factors will directly and indirectly affect you…

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/guest-post-disinformation-fog-intensifies-economic-turmoil-develops

Lots of great information follows. Basically it's what most of us here have known for some time, backed up with links and data.

[Demeter]

37. "Globalism" is the Sanitized PR Name for Crony Capitalism or Plutocracy

Stomping all over people and nations in pursuit of ill-gotten gains.

[Demeter]

35. Pending Legislation in VA Would Give End Use of MERS, Give Borrowers More Foreclosure Defenses

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/01/pending-legislation-in-va-would-give-end-use-of-mers-give-borrowers-more-foreclosure-defenses.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

The securitization industry may be about to reap the whirlwind of its failure to take the need for reform seriously. As we’ve indicated, industry incumbents have adopted a denialist approach to widespread evidence of serious documentation problems and procedural abuses, and have fought reasonable, pro investor proposals tooth and nail.

The Washington Post reports on several pending legislative proposals in the state of Virginia, all of which seek to level the power imbalance between the financial services industry and mortgage borrowers. The interesting thing about this pushback is that Virginia is not at all left leaning state. These measures instead appears to result from the fact that it has one of the fastest foreclosure processes in the US...

The most interesting and potentially significant proposed change would effectively put MERS out of business in Virginia....So the bill would require the traditional practice of having the local courthouse records show for the public at large to see who specifically has a lien on a particular piece of real estate. Thus every transfer of a note (the borrower’s IOU) would also need to be recorded and the associated fees paid. Before industry defenders howl that this will end securitizations, yes, it would change the economics substantially and result in more loans being kept by the orginating bank. But the idea that it would kill securitizations is a gross exaggeration. There was a real estate securitization industry long before MERS became a large scale force in the early 2000s.

In addition, as I read it, this bill would also effectively bar foreclosures in the name of MERS.

The tectonic plates are starting to shift in mortgage land. It would behoove industry incumbents to be a tad more pro-active, but expect them instead to continue to try to block any meaningful change, relying on the usual claim of “it will destroy the housing market”. Funny, they seem to have already done that.

[Demeter]

40. Central Bank steps up its cash support to Irish banks financed by institution printing own money

http://www.independent.ie/business/irish/central-bank-steps-up-its-cash-support-to-irish-banks-financed-by-institution-printing-own-money-2497212.html

EMERGENCY lending from the ECB to banks in Ireland fell in December, the first decline since January 2010, but only because the Irish Central Bank stepped up its help to banks.

The Irish Independent learnt last night that the Central Bank of Ireland is financing €51bn of an emergency loan programme by printing its own money...However, the figures also provide the latest evidence that responsibility for funding Ireland's broken banks is being pushed increasingly back on to Irish taxpayers. The loans are recorded by the Irish Central Bank under the heading "other assets".

A spokesman for the ECB said the Irish Central Bank is itself creating the money it is lending to banks, not borrowing cash from the ECB to fund the payments. The ECB spokesman said the Irish Central Bank can create its own funds if it deems it appropriate, as long as the ECB is notified...

DO IT YOURSELF EUROS...WHAT WAS THE PURPOSE OF THE COMMON MARKET, NOW?

[maddogesq]

42. Apple shares fall 5% as Jobs takes medical leave.

Yikes! Being new to this stock market stuff, my sense of logic does not allow me to react to events the same way the market does, making this whole experience feel a bit weird.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703954004576089633611009272.html?ru=yahoo&mod=yahoo_hs

[Demeter]

43. Big Lenders May Lose Under Plan for Simpler Mortgage Disclosure

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-14/big-lenders-may-lose-under-plan-for-simpler-mortgage-disclosure.html

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said it will soon begin writing and testing a simplified mortgage-disclosure form aimed at making it easier for borrowers to compare deals from different lenders...More concise disclosure is one of the main stated goals of Elizabeth Warren, the special White House and Treasury adviser charged with setting up the agency established by the Dodd-Frank regulatory overhaul. Simpler forms that can be directly compared may make the market less lucrative for lenders such as Bank of America Corporation, Wells Fargo & Company, JP Morgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc.

“If buyers are better informed and understand the financial commitments they are entering into, they will be better able to make comparisons among lenders and the market will be more competitive,” said Alex Pollock, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a former banker. “In competitive markets, profit margins are -- and should be -- driven down to the level of the cost of capital.”

Academic studies have shown that comparison shopping aided by the emergence of the Internet helped cut prices for consumer products, including term life insurance in the 1990s. That squeezed profits, said Edward Graves, an associate professor of insurance at The American College in Bryn Mawr, Pennsylvania.

Lost Margins

“When you see what’s gone on in terms of prices, the insurers have lost a lot of margin in this product,” Graves said in an interview.

................

Warren has said she would like to see a standard document of one or two pages to replace about 80 percent of the mortgage disclosures mandated by the Truth In Lending Act and the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act. The current “pile of papers” confuses consumers and is costly to business, Warren has said.

She has also touted simplified disclosures as a way to make community banks more competitive with Wall Street.

[Demeter]

46. Looks like another insane day on the DOW--Ponies, anyone?

[Pale Blue Dot]

49. Seriously. I can't find any logical explanation for this rise.

If someone knows something, please post it, but all of the news I've seen today has been either mediocre, "disappointing", or just plain bad.

[Pale Blue Dot]

51. Oh, I see. The EU made another "pledge".

Global Stocks Gain on EU Rescue Pledge; U.S. Equities Fluctuate

Global stocks rose to a two-year high, the euro gained and German bonds fell as European finance chiefs pledged support for the region’s most-indebted countries. U.S. equities fluctuated as Apple Inc. and Citigroup Inc. fell.

The MSCI World Index climbed 0.6 percent at 9:42 a.m. in New York. The euro appreciated 1.2 percent against the dollar, while the German 10-year bund yield added seven basis points. The pound traded above $1.60 for the first time since Nov. 22 after U.K. inflation accelerated. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was little changed after Citigroup reported earnings that disappointed investors and Steve Jobs’s leave of absence triggered concern over the leadership at Apple.

Euro-area finance ministers vowed to strengthen the safety net for debt-strapped countries yesterday, examining ways to give the 750 billion-euro ($1 trillion) rescue fund more flexibility without ruling out boosting its size. Apple’s Jobs took a leave of absence to focus on his health, leaving Tim Cook in charge for the third time in seven years, the company said yesterday.

“The euro’s strength is based partly on the perception of a reduction in risk,” said Steve Barrow, head of research for Group of 10 currencies at Standard Bank Plc in London.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-18/euro-falls-for-second-day-asia-stocks-gain-on-earnings-u-s-futures-drop.html

What's this, their 40th "pledge" since October?

[Demeter]

53. It's like NPR

You have to move or die to avoid the solicitations

[Pale Blue Dot]

47. Citigroup Profit Misses Analysts' Estimates on Credit Spreads

Citigroup Inc., the third-largest U.S. bank, said earnings were $1.31 billion, less than analysts estimated, as narrowing credit spreads reduced pretax profit by $1.1 billion.

Fourth-quarter net income was 4 cents a share, compared with a $7.58 billion loss, or 33 cents, in the same period in 2009, New York-based Citigroup said today in a statement. Eight analysts had predicted in a Bloomberg survey that Citigroup would report a per-share profit of 7 cents.

The $10.6 billion in 2010 earnings mark the first profitable year under Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit, 54. Pandit took over in December 2007 and led Citigroup to losses of $29.3 billion during the next two years. The U.S. Treasury, which gave the bank a taxpayer-funded $45 billion bailout in 2008, also sold the last of its stake in the fourth quarter. Citigroup stock rose 43 percent during the year.

“I don’t think anybody is taking victory laps yet at Citigroup,” said William Fitzpatrick, a portfolio manager at Optique Capital Management in Milwaukee, which owns Citigroup shares. “There’s a long way to go. It was a $50 stock four years ago, it’s now $5.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-18/citigroup-net-misses-estimates-on-charges-tied-to-tighter-credit-spreads.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

48. The Rich Go Spend But With Little Help From Middle Class

Rich shoppers are driving an increase in consumer spending, bolstering a recovery that masks reluctance among less affluent Americans to join in.

Sales are up at Tiffany & Co. and Coach Inc., buoyed by demand for $6,000 diamond pendants and $1,200 leather handbags as a stock-market surge pads the wallets of the wealthy. At the other end of the economic spectrum, Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s largest discount retailer, reports “everyday Americans” are living paycheck to paycheck as they await an improvement in job prospects.

“The heavy lifting is being done by the upper-income households,” said Michael Feroli, a former Federal Reserve economist who is now chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York. “They’re the ones benefiting the most from the stock market rally, and they’re spending.”

The uneven progress in household expenditures, which account for about 70 percent of the economy, helps explain why Fed policy makers likely will keep interest rates near zero and complete a second round of Treasury purchases. Unemployment averaged 9.6 percent last year, the highest rate since 1983, even as the expansion gathered speed.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-18/rich-americans-raise-consumer-spending-with-little-help-from-middle-class.html

"Reluctance". Jeez. How about "inability"?

The spin is making me CRAZY.

[jtuck004]

50. The EB5 visa for a US Green Card (Permanent Residency) $500,000 and 5 years.

...by investment into the most popular Government approved EB5 Regional Center

You and your immediate family can now obtain green cards and permanent US residency with an EB5 visa by investing $500,000 into a government designated Regional Center. It will give each of you the security of permanent US residency without repeated visa applications. Citizenship may be obtained after five years.

Green Card. The attraction of a green card via an EB-5 investment visa is that it can be secured before you commit to emigrating. You will also have the flexibility to take any job, run any business, retire and live anywhere in the USA. As a resident you will have access to many of the benefits enjoyed by US citizens such as education and, in certain states such as Florida, you will enjoy substantial savings in property tax.

Permanent Residency. For most, emigrating to the USA is about a better quality of life. Permanent residency avoids repeated visa applications and allows you the opportunity of dual citizenship. The EB-5 visa will secure you Permanent Residency.

Enjoy an American Life with American Life Inc.

http://www.eb5-visa.net/
____________________________________


One of these helped raise 200 million invested into a ski resort in Vermont. Is a conduit to overseas investment, amd a quickened path to citizenship with "all those property tax savings in Florida". Up for renewal 2012.

Where do people get $500,000...

[Demeter]

54. QE2, QED!

Tunisia's ex-president and wife have 1.5M in gold...

[TalkingDog]

52. Read and Weep... Or say: Yeah, that pretty much sums it up.

Ranking Cute Animals: A Stock Market Experiment
http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2011/01/14/132906135/ranking-cute-animals-a-stock-market-experiment

We got the idea from John Maynard Keynes. Back in 1936, he described the stock market as a particular kind of beauty contest. You see a bunch of women's faces, but you're not supposed to say who you think is prettiest. You're supposed to guess who everyone else will think is the prettiest.




So, it's never been about tangible product (OJ, Pork Bellies....). It's about who plays poker best.

[Pale Blue Dot]

55. Gov. Cuomo threatens gov't shutdown

Gov. Andrew Cuomo is telling lawmakers to agree on a budget, or else threatens a government shutdown if they don't strike a deal by April.

While April 1 is still months away, sources say the governor has issued an early warning hoping to encourage cooperation at the Capital.

Former Gov. David Paterson threatened a government shutdown last year when lawmakers didn't agree on a budget until mid-August, Cuomo says that won't happen on his watch.

When Andrew Cuomo officially took office just over two weeks ago, he inherited a massive budget deficit and now it's his job to try and dig New York out of a $10 billion hole.

http://www.fox23news.com/mostpopular/story/Gov-Cuomo-threatens-government-shutdown/yrYdS9FqdkyblXcm2bQXig.cspx

[Pale Blue Dot]

56. U.S. Builder Confidence Held Back by Lack of Credit

Confidence among U.S. homebuilders stagnated in January, reflecting a lack of credit that threatens to hold back construction this year.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment index registered a reading of 16, the same as the past two months and less than the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, data from the Washington-based group showed today. Readings below 50 mean more respondents said conditions were poor.

Developers Lennar Corp. and KB Home, which this month reported a fourth-quarter profit, are cutting costs as elevated unemployment limits demand and mounting foreclosures add to the supply of unsold properties. At the same time, sales are projected to recover from last year’s post tax-credit slump, helped by falling prices and low borrowing costs.

“Housing remains very weak,” said Paul Dales, U.S. economist for Capital Economics Ltd. in Toronto, who had forecast the index would hold at 16. “There’s still excess supply and demand is weak, and that’s going to be the case for a while. It’s no surprise builders aren’t doing a lot of building and their confidence is low.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-18/confidence-among-u-s-homebuilders-stagnates-on-lack-of-credit-for-buyers.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

58. Now the fun starts: It's JP Morgan vs. Wells Fargo in Foreclosure-gate.

JPMorgan's EMC Mortgage Sued Over Home Loan Documents

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s EMC Mortgage, facing homeowner lawsuits over foreclosures, was sued by the trustee of a mortgage portfolio for refusing to turn over documents detailing the quality of loans bought by the trust.

Wells Fargo & Co., the trustee, is seeking access to files for more than 2,000 underlying mortgages in the Bear Stearns Mortgage Funding Trust 2007-AR2, according to the complaint filed today in Delaware Chancery Court in Wilmington.

“The trustee has repeatedly requested that EMC provide access to the subject documents,” Wells Fargo said in the complaint. “EMC has played proverbial ‘rope a dope’ and otherwise continued to drag its feet, and has produced nothing.”

Claims of wrongdoing by banks and loan servicers triggered a 50-state investigation last year into whether hundreds of thousands of foreclosures were properly documented as the housing market collapsed. Lending practices have also pitted mortgage-bond investors against banks over misrepresentations such as overstatements of borrowers’ income and inflated appraisals.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-18/jpmorgan-s-emc-mortgage-sued-over-mortgage-loan-documents.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

60. Insider Selling To Buying Ratio: DIV/0, As No Insiders Bought Any Stock In Prior Week

According to Bloomberg, in the week ended January 14 S&P 500 insiders sold $163 million worth of stock in 54 separate transactions. They bought exactly $0. That's right, in the last week, there was no insider purchasing. This is the first time in years (and possibly for ever) in which we have seen a week during which there was not one purchase by an insider. Surely, there is no need to comment on this result.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/insider-selling-buying-ratio-div0-no-insiders-bought-any-stock-prior-week

[Pale Blue Dot]

61. Uber-Wealthy First To Feel Price Pass-Throughs As Tiffany's Raises Prices On Most Jewelry Products,

Complains About Dropping Margins

While so far the broader US consumer has been insulated from the surge in commodity input prices as supermarkets and retailers continue to believe that things will normalize, and nobody is desperate enough yet to be the first to defect from what has been a comfortable deflationary game theoretical equilibrium (except for the now bankrupt Great Atlantic and Pacifics of the world...it's too late for them), this is no longer the uniform case. Tiffany's has just announced it is raising prices on "most of its jewelry in the last couple of days in a move to help offset higher precious-metal and diamond costs." Dow Jones reports that increases depend on what metals are in the jewelry, a spokesman said, but are not commensurate with the metal-price jumps last year. He declined to be more specific. TIF feels customers are likely to find the moves more palatable than in 2009, when the company didn't raise prices despite higher costs because of the recession. Margins fell as a result. In other words exactly as we have been predicting for almost a year now, as we have been anticipating the liquidity driven inflation now gripping virtually every single commodity.

And with Tiffany's leading the charge, expect this move to be imitated as copycat retailers (many of whom are still stuck with massive excess inventory) finally take the plunge and follow through with a move that is sure to blow up not only margins in the short and long run, but earnings and as a result, earning multiples. The biggest loser of course, will be the US middle class which between energy, food and now discretionary price increases will not be able to fund the difference even factoring in the fact that nobody actually pays their mortgage any more.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/uber-wealthy-first-feel-price-pass-throughs-tiffanys-raises-prices-most-jewelry-products-com

[Roland99]

66. At the close - Markets have hit my prediction for the bouncing bull

Dow 11,838 +51 +0.43%
Nasdaq 2,766 +11 +0.38%
S&P 500 1,295 +2 +0.14%
GlobalDow 2,161 +17 +0.78%
Gold 1,367 +7 +0.50%
Oil 91.31 -0.23 -0.25

[Demeter]

68. Thanks for the summary, Roland

I've missed that feature.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

69. k