STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, April 5, 2011

[Demeter]

Source: DU

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Tuesday, April 5, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON Monday, April 4, 2011

Dow 12,400.03 +23.31 +0.19%

Nasdaq 2,789.19 -0.41 -0.01%

S&P 500 1,332.87 +0.46 +0.03%

10-Yr Bond... 3.41 -0.02 -0.56%
30-Year Bond 4.46 -0.02 -0.49%

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Market
Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro,
Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold>

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Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic
Calendar> Marketwatch
Data> Bloomberg
Economic News> Yahoo!
Finance> Google
Finance> Bank
Tracker> Credit Union Tracker Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic
Blogs: The Big
Picture> Financial
Sense> Calculated
Risk> Naked
Capitalism> Credit
Writedowns> Brad
DeLong> Bonddad Atrios goldmansachs666 The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government
Issues: LegitGov Open Government Earmark
Database> USAspending.gov

Handy Links - Videos: The Coming Collapse
of the Middle[br />Class] Charlie
Rose talks with[br />Roubini] Charlie
Rose talks with Krugman>
William
Black: This Economic Disaster> Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 =
11

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This thread contains opinions
and observations. Individuals may post their experiences,
inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should
not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably
illegal) for financial recommendations to be given
here.

No link yet.

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I don't know where it is--so here it is

[xchrom]

1. recommend -- thank you, demeter! nt

[xchrom]

2. China's scruples cost it Libyan advantage

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/MD06Ad01.html

SHANGHAI - China's rapid transition from a developing into a developed country is still limiting its role in international affairs, as seen in its sitting on the fence over the Libya issue.

China has tried to keep close ties with the West, while at the same time continuing its friendship with developing countries. But by taking no side, China may in the end please neither.

In the beginning, what happened in Libya seemed similar to the "Jasmine" revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt. Social turmoil in these countries and others like Bahrain and Yemen is largely due


to long-standing social conflicts, such as political corruption, uneven distribution of wealth, and high unemployment rates.

But there is a big difference between the situation in Libya and what happened in Tunisia and Egypt, where the presidents left after failing to ease the social turmoil.

[xchrom]

3. Medvedev, Nazarbaev fail to heal fault lines

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/MD06Ag01.html

The leaders of Russia and Kazakhstan have announced plans to further develop their energy partnership. However, the two former Soviet allies remain slow to finalize some of their energy projects. Meanwhile, bilateral trade and Russia's trade surplus has increased.

During a meeting in Moscow on March 17, Russia's President Dmitry Medvedev and his Kazakh counterpart, Nursultan Nazarbaev, pledged to develop bilateral economic ties. They discussed a joint action plan for 2011-2012, including oil and gas transit, development of the Caspian shelf, nuclear energy and transportation cooperation.

Medvedev and Nazarbaev also discussed bilateral "strategic" projects, including the Western China-Western Europe system of


highways, the joint use of Baikonur space center and the construction of the new Baiterek space launch site.

[xchrom]

4. Cutting Costs Without Cutting People

http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2011/04/cutting_costs_without_cutting.html

One of the biggest mistakes that companies made during the recent crisis was the mass laying off of people to cut costs. Subsequent stock price performance proved its unpopularity with investors while numerous studies over the last decade demonstrated the precedent for its long-term, damaging effects on company performance. Not to mention are layoffs' adverse consequences for scores of employees and their families.

Indeed, according to experts, the last two years of almost 1 million in mass layoffs threaten a substantial economic recovery. Nonetheless, despite widespread warnings, every major business from Amazon to Yahoo! took the pink slip plunge: arguing that mass layoffs were the only effective weapon they possessed to respond to major difficulties.

But is this true? To be sure, payroll costs tend to be the lion's share of the bottom line for most businesses. However, companies also face substantial costs related to mistakes, errors, accidents, and surprise external events. Collectively known as "operational risks", these latter costs are substantial yet, if managed properly, could significantly, reduce the bottom line with few negative side effects.

[fasttense]

25. Great article thanks for posting.

[xchrom]

5. "Big Content" Is Strangling American Innovation

http://blogs.hbr.org/cs/2011/03/big_content_is_strangling_amer.html

nnovation has emerged as a key means by which the US can pull itself out of this lackluster economy. In the State of the Union, President Obama referred to China and India as new threats to America's position as the world's leading innovator. But the threats are not just external. One of the greatest threats to the US's ability to innovate lies within: specifically, with the music and movie business. These Big Content businesses are attempting to protect themselves from change so aggressively that they risk damaging America's position as a world leader in innovation.

Many in the high technology industry have known this for a long time. Despite making their living relying on it, the Big Content players do not understand technology, and never have. Rather than see it as an opportunity to reach new audiences, technology has always been a threat to them. Example after example abounds of this attitude; whether it was the VCR which was "to the American film producer and the American public as the Boston strangler is to the woman home alone" as famed movie industry lobbyist Jack Valenti put it at a congressional hearing, or MP3 technology, which they tried to sue out of existence. In fact, it's possible to go back as far as the gramophone and see the content industries rail against new technology. The reason why? Every shift in technology is difficult for them. Just as they work out how to make money using one technology, it changes.

[Demeter]

11. America Has to Go Back To Basics

Too many of the "innovations" of the past 30 years: Union-busting, Constitution-trashing, Magna Carta voiding, fraudulent financial "instruments" of torture and death, have to be undone, first.

[xchrom]

14. spot. on. nt

[xchrom]

6. Southwest may need to halt expansion plans, analysts say

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-southwest-impact-20110405,0,7425200.story

As Southwest Airlines Co. scrambles to find and repair cracks in its older planes, it may have to put off immediate expansion plans to focus on fixing and replacing its aging aircraft, analysts said.

But there probably will be no major drop in Southwest's passenger traffic or long-term financial repercussions resulting from Friday's incident because it did not result in severe injuries or deaths and the airline acted quickly to ground its older planes for inspections, industry experts said.

"There is no doubt that in the short term there will be some kind of impact," said Standard & Poor's aviation analyst Betsy Snyder. "But I don't think it's going to be a long-term impact."

[Demeter]

13. Yah Think?

Want to bet they buy Chinese airplanes because of the cost?

Does China even export airplanes?

[xchrom]

15. if they don't -- they might now. nt

[Roland99]

22. They were going to start flying into Mexico I believe...

giving JetBlue and AirTran more competition on the discount carrier side of things.

[Fuddnik]

26. You missed all the fun weather last week.

But, the pool is finished, filled, and a perfect 86 degrees.

[Roland99]

46. yeah....our neighbor's trampoline was bashed against the corner of our house

destroyed the trampoline, just scratched off some stucco off the house.

Nice pool!

We're waiting til this winter or early next spring to put ours in...sucks we have to wait another year but so be it. Bet you're loving it already, eh? :)

This was my view for most of last week (we did venture out into the sun a few days but I burn easily...)

[AnneD]

49. Of course .....

you will be installing pool guards to prevent Roland99 III from becoming another tragic statistic. If there is a way they, and they have a mind, they will find it. I don't worry about fudd's furry butt kids, but I do worry about your progeny.

Gorgeous pool, BTW. When it the SWT pool party. Maybe that can be a weekend theme. Dibs on the invite. Tansy can throw her hat in the pool and do a victory lap.

AnneD,Pedi RN, who knows toddlers+pools=tragedy.

[Roland99]

67. I wish that was my pool!

The Grand Mayan does it up very well!

Yeah, we'll safeguard our pool when we get it installed. Even though my gf's youngest will be 6 at the time and on vacation last week he finally was swimming w/o his arm "swimmies", safety first!

[xchrom]

7. A new theme at Tokyo Disney: hardship

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-ct-tokyo-disney-20110405,0,4981903.story

Reporting from Tokyo—
Hiroshi Miura and a dozen other taxi drivers dressed in crisp blue shirts were shooting the breeze in front of the quiet Tokyo Bay Hotel at dusk Saturday. They had one thing on their minds: "X Day."

"That's the day Disney is going to reopen," said Miura, leaning against a buddy's black cab and lamenting how he has lost at least two-thirds of his fares since Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo Disney Sea shut down after Japan's March 11 earthquake and tsunami. "They're going to post a notice five days before 'X Day' on their website announcing what day they are starting operations. We're all waiting."

It's not just taxi drivers who have been suffering without the 70,000 customers that the Disney resorts in Japan attract each day on average. Many nearby hotels, restaurants and shopping centers sustained only minor damage in the quake but have seen a major drop-off in business, vividly illustrating the economic ripple effects of the disaster. The two Tokyo Disney properties are among the most popular theme parks in the world, attracting more than 25.3 million visitors in the 12 months that ended March 31.

[Demeter]

10. That's Either Guts or Stupidity

Reopening Disneyworld Japan

[xchrom]

12. and what an incredibly sad story line. nt

[Tansy_Gold]

24. I had an interesting conversation with a friend the other day

on a topic very far removed from nuclear energy.

She had been involved in a tragic "accident" that was entirely preventable. The cause was strictly human error at best, human malice at worst, on the part of a local government employee. As a result of the "accident," policies are in the process of being changed, additional safeguards are being put in place to prevent a repeat of this "accident." So I asked her,

"If all these changes are implemented right away, will it still be possible for the same thing to happen again?"

She thought about it for a minute, and I said, "The ultimate process that caused the problem is still in place. All the safeguards in the world can't prevent the possibility of a repeat, because the end process remains. It's like capital punishment: all the safeguards in the world that no innocent person will ever be put to death because of screwed up evidence or lying witnesses or switched DNA results are worthless, because so much of that is due to human error. And you can't legislate out human error because the death penalty is still there. If you want to eliminate any chance of executing an innocent person, then simply abolish the death penalty. Then you'll know for sure it will never happen. AND IT'S THE SAME THING WITH NUCLER ENERGY. Many of the laws that are currently on the books in Japan were ignored or circumvented in the name of greed. And there's no putting that genie back in the bottle any more than there is undoing of an execution or replacing what you lost as a result of a government employee's screw up. The only way to stop the possibility of mistakes is to remove the process completely."

Fukushima is a catastrophe of still unknown proportions. Its effects will linger far longer and spread far wider than the boundaries of Japan and the reach of Japan's laws. It's not safe, and it never can be, because its "safety" factor relies on the theoretical impossibility of human error. And there's no such thing.


Tansy Gold

[Demeter]

28. AMEN, SISTER! TANSY GOLD FOR PRESIDENT!

[Po_d Mainiac]

33. Patience madam

We are on track to remove any and all possibility of future human error. We'll likely take a few other species into the realm of extinction also.:banghead:

[Demeter]

54. That's Exactly What I'm Afraid Of

All those frozen sperm and eggs may be our only hope as a species...

[Po_d Mainiac]

59. No cockroach in it's right mind, would

bother to tend the freezers.

Although the way this spring is going, freezers may not be required.

[Robbien]

51. radiation levels are so high that monitoring devices have been rendered useless

and

TEPCO Knew Radiation In Sea was 7.5 Million Above normal Before it started dumping millions of tons of more Radioactive water into the Sea On Monday


But news stations have moved on. Japan radioactivity is so yesterday's news. Even Al Jazerra's news hour report on my PBS station barely mentioned Japan today.


Since they cannot solve the problem, it appears they put all their resources into making sure the story is suppressed in the news.

[AnneD]

66. The reason...

Tokyo Tinkerbell glows in the dark has nothing to do with fairy dust!

[Demeter]

8. I'm pressed for time today

Carry on, Marketeers!

[Demeter]

9. Real vs Nominal Housing Prices: United States 1890-2010

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/03/real-vs-nominal-housing-prices-united-states-1890-2010.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

[Demeter]

16. Are Banks Scheming to Gut the Role of the Courts in Foreclosures?

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/03/are-banks-scheming-to-gut-the-role-of-the-courts-in-foreclosures.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

TRUTH IS UGLY--DEMETER

[Fuddnik]

23. The banks will buy whatever legislation they want.

That's the ugly truth.

[Hotler]

17. k&r thanks you guys n/t

[Demeter]

27. The Difficult We Do Right Away

The impossible takes a little longer...and it's gonna be one of those days...

[Fuddnik]

18. A little diversion.

When the dog park floods. Labs don't have good sense, anyway. Next time I'll put a towel in the car.

[xchrom]

32. that is some wonderful awesomeness! nt

[DemReadingDU]

38. Looks like the doggies are having a great time!

[Fuddnik]

41. Storms hit on Tuesday, and Thursday.

We got about a foot of rain between them. These pics were taken Sat. I was there the day before, and the water was higher. They looked like a couple of furry dolphins then.

[AnneD]

73. Love that middle pic of Sara...

her face is pure bliss. She is so proud of fetching that stick.

[Demeter]

19. OMG, Greenspan Claims Financial Rent Seeking Promotes Prosperity!

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/03/omg-greenspan-claims-financial-rent-seeking-promotes-prosperity.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

I was already mundo unhappy with an Alan Greenspan op-ed in the Financial Times, (POSTED LAST WEEK, I THINK, SEE LINK IN HER POST) which takes issue with Dodd Frank for ultimately one and only one disingenuous and boneheaded reason: interfering with the rent seeking of the financial sector is a Bad Idea. It might lead those wonderful financial firms to go overseas! US companies and investors might not be able to get their debt fix as regularly or in an many convenient colors and flavors as they’ve become accustomed to! But the Maestro managed to outdo himself in the category of tarting up the destructive behaviors of our new financial overlords.

What about those regulators? Never never can they keep up with those clever bankers. Greenspan airbrushes out the fact that he is the single person most responsible for the need for massive catch-up. Not only due was he actively hostile to supervision (and if you breed for incompetence, you are certain to get it), but he also gave banks a green light to go hog wild in derivatives land. And on top of that, he allowed banks to develop their own risk models and metrics, which also insured the regulators would not be able to oversee effectively (there would be a completely different attitude and level of understanding if the regulators had adopted the posture that they weren’t going to approve new products unless they understood them and could also model the exposures).

And the most important omission is that the we just had a global economic near-death experience thanks to the recklessness of the financial best and brightest. You’d never know that if you read the Greenspan piece, which merely argues against the idea of restricting financial activity under the guise of objecting to certain provisions of Dodd Frank....

[xchrom]

34. +1

[Demeter]

20. Lender Processing Services Behind More Record-Keeping Botches and Foreclosure Forgeries

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2011/03/lender-processing-services-behind-more-record-keeping-and-foreclosure-forgeries.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+NakedCapitalism+%28naked+capitalism%29

Lender Processing Services has played a singularly destructive role in the mortgage servicing industry. The firm not only offered document fabrication services through DocX, a company it acquired and was forced to shut down after the Department of Justice started sniffing about, but is being revealed to be involved in more abuses as far as borrower records and legal process are concerned. Readers may recall that it is also the target of two national class action suits on illegal legal fee sharing which if successful will produce multi-billion-dollar damages.

This abuses matter due to the role that LPS has come to play. It is the biggest player in default services, meaning it acts as the de facto selector and supervisor of foreclosure mills via its system, LPS Desktop, which manages and oversees the work of local law firms on behalf of its bank servicer clients. It also provides the servicing platform for more than half of the servicing industry. And as our two latest examples show, the company clearly places its profits over integrity of records and due process.

The first, per Abigail Field of Daily Finance, comes out of a affidavit by former LPS employee Adrian Lofton, who worked at its subsidiary Fidelity, the mortgage servicing platform that was acquired by LPS. Lofton describes an environment where cost cutting pressures led to widespread abuse of basic security protocols. Employees of his unit had the ability to access the mortgage records of borrowers and alter them; an important control was that each employee had his own login and password and was per corporate policy allowed only to utilize only his own account. Employees were grades and rewarded on speed and on not asking their bosses for help in resolving problems. This devolved into an out of control environment: SEE LINK

[Demeter]

21. As Obama and Congress fiddle, America liquidates housing sector

http://blogs.reuters.com/christopher-whalen/2011/03/29/as-obama-and-congress-fiddle-america-liquidates-housing-sector/

Republicans in the House of Representatives are busily assembling several legislative proposals to reform the housing sector and reduce government support for the secondary market in home loans used by banks to manage their liquidity.

According to Joe Engelhart at CapitalAlpha Partners: “House Republicans are considering an ambitious series of standalone legislative initiatives to reduce the role of Federal National Mortgage Association (Fannie Mae) and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) over the next five years.”

Meanwhile, President Barack Obama has started another war in the Middle East with his political soul mates in the EU. The President has also embarked upon an ambitious schedule of foreign tourism and domestic campaign stops, but nothing of substance.

Obama is compared by some to Louis XIV (and Mrs Obama to Marie-Antoinette) in terms of his detachment from the nation’s priorities, particularly the ongoing meltdown in the housing sector.

“Pres. Barak Hussein Obama has given new meaning to that epithet “imperial presidency,” my friend Sol Sanders opines. “It was slung at Pres. Richard Nixon not only for his extravagant “palace guard” – some in kitschy uniforms – but his more serious unconstitutional overreach. But if imperial in his style, Mr. Obama reigns; he does not rule.”...

MORE AT LINK

[kickysnana]

31. There was a skywatching chart in Sundays paper

I quipped to my Aunt "we might as well go gaze at the sky looking around down here is pretty dismal."

I keep saying I am going to take a break since the Republicans with less than half the power can accomplish their agenda as opposed to Democrats who had all the power could not even remember theirs.

:argh:

[Demeter]

29. SOMEBODY DO THE OIL REPORT, PLEASE?

I gotta get my car jumped.

[Hotler]

30. Oil report...

NEW YORK – Oil prices are falling after China announced it
would raise interest rates to control inflation.

Benchmark crude gave up 52 cents at $107.95 per barrel on the
New York Mercantile Exchange.

Analysts say they're still concerned about uprisings in North
Africa and the Middle East, which supplies about 27 percent of
the world's oil. But higher interest rates in China could slow
its economy and shrink its appetite for oil.

Analysts also say the arrival of an oil tanker in one of
Libya's rebel-held eastern ports could mean that oil may start
flowing from the country sooner than expected. Before the
rebellion, Libya exported about 1.5 million barrels of oil per
day — mostly to Europe. Those shipments have all but shut
down.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

55. Thanks!

Car is jumped, other car is getting brakes, Kid is off on her day, I brought home 5 bushels of free compost, now maybe some breakfast and some paying work?

[xchrom]

35. Stocks slip; tech gains strength on chip deal

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-slip-tech-gains-strength-on-chip-deal-2011-04-05

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks dropped modestly in early trading Tuesday, as investors took in news of a rate hike in China while awaiting ISM services-sector data and the release of the minutes of the most recent Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average /quotes/comstock/10w!i:dji/delayed (DJIA 12,362, -37.76, -0.31%) dropped 11 points, or 0.1%, to 12,387. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index /quotes/comstock/21z!i1:in\x (SPX 1,330, -2.65, -0.20%) shed 1 point to 1332, with health care and financial stocks leading decliners. The Nasdaq Composite /quotes/comstock/10y!i:comp (COMP 2,785, -3.84, -0.14%) gained 0.1% to 2792.

[xchrom]

36. ISM services-sector gauge drops to 57.3% in March

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ism-services-sector-gauge-drops-to-573-in-march-2011-04-05

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Institute for Supply Management's services-sector index for March fell to 57.3% from 59.7% in February, the private group reported on Tuesday.


i guess we're still expanding.

[DemReadingDU]

40. expanding, just not as fast or as much

When the ISM stops expanding, the rate would be negative?
:shrug:

[xchrom]

43. good question -- i don't know. nt

[xchrom]

37. Moody’s downgrades Portugal on bailout fears

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-downgrades-portugal-to-baa1-2011-04-05

LONDON (MarketWatch) — Moody’s Investors Service on Tuesday delivered the latest in a series of ratings-agency downgrades to Portugal’s government bonds, citing fears the country will have difficulty meeting its deficit-reduction goals and underlining expectations the country will be forced to seek a bailout.

Moody’s said it sees increased political, budgetary and economic uncertainty in Portugal. The country’s minority government recently fell apart after failing to win support in parliament for a fourth round of austerity measures, setting the stage for a June 5 general election.

Moody’s cut Portugal's rating by one notch to Baa1 from A3 and put the rating on review for a possible further cut. The move comes after Moody’s cut Portugal’s rating by two notches last month.


like ireland -- what's happening to portugal is a crime.
and i feel very bad for the people.

[xchrom]

39. grain of salt time: Seasonal trading patterns battle for dominance

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/seasonal-trading-patterns-battle-for-dominance-2011-04-04

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — April this year is shaping up as the battleground for a fight between competing seasonal patterns.

On one side, of course, stands the famous seasonal pattern known either as the Halloween Indicator or “Sell in May and Go Away.” Traders paying attention to this seasonal tendency will begin in April to pull some chips off the table.

On the other side, in contrast, looms the equally famous Presidential Election Year Cycle. According to it, the stock market tends to perform particularly well during the third years of presidential terms. And, needless to say, we’re right in the middle of President Obama’s third year in office. Even if you define the Presidential Election Year Cycle in terms of fiscal years ending Sept. 30, as many devotees do, there’s positive seasonality for five of the six months that otherwise fall afoul of the “Sell in May and Go Away” indicator.

[Demeter]

56. And then there's the PPT "Make Hay While the Sun Shines"

which starts when trading volumes are so low (because everybody 'went away') that small trades can push up big jumps to make it all look hunky-dory and up and up.

[xchrom]

42. grain of salt - again: In search of higher yields

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-search-of-higher-yields-2011-04-04

CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — The stock market may have finished the quarter with an impressive show of strength — even while the bond market was suffering its longest string of back-to-back daily declines in months.

But try telling that to the investment advisers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest. The list of mutual funds that are most popular among them right now is dominated by fixed income offerings.

Clearly, these advisers are not venturing very far out the risk spectrum.

Here is that list, in descending order of popularity:

—Vanguard GNMA /quotes/comstock/10r!vfiix (VFIIX 10.73, 0.00, 0.00%)

—Fidelity Floating Rate High Income /quotes/comstock/10r!ffrhx (FFRHX 9.88, 0.00, 0.00%)

—Vanguard Short-Term Investment Grade /quotes/comstock/10r!vfstx (VFSTX 10.74, +0.01, +0.09%)

—Vanguard Wellesley Income /quotes/comstock/10r!vwinx (VWINX 22.20, +0.04, +0.18%)

—Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities /quotes/comstock/10r!vipsx (VIPSX 13.26, +0.05, +0.38%)

—Vanguard High Yield Corporate /quotes/comstock/10r!vwehx (VWEHX 5.81, 0.00, 0.00%)

You might wonder why these otherwise risk-averse advisers aren’t avoiding bond funds as well as equities, since it’s hard to minimize the possibility of a severe bear market in bonds.

[maddogesq]

47. Novice investors wanna know. (HELP!!!)

I have an idvisor who is a nice guy, but he seems to have contradicted himself several times in the last 4 months. When I first got into this stuff in December, he suggested a 60/40 on equity fund v. bond funds for my first few years. At that time he was negatory onmy purchase of silver. (I suspect he munched on his words over that one.) Then a month later, when I added to equity and went 70/30, and he was OK with it.

A week ago he was bearish on both, even though I was bummed because my money market interest rates dropped like a rock, and I wanted to shift funds over. He insisted the credit union would be raising those rates soon, but I am skeptical of that.

OK, so what do I do now? Daily yeald on bod fund I have is 2.88 percent. I have 2 equity funds, and both are doing fine IMHO.

Are these "advisors" spending more time covering their asses than giving solid advice? My picks and percentages have been 80 percent on the mark, so I supect my instincts are better than I thought. (This last statement is tempered by stock I bought in A123...OUTCH!)

[xchrom]

48. i'm clueless. nt

[maddogesq]

50. I know one thing: Half of the talking heads on CNBC are full of crap.

They start OK in the late morning and early afternoon, but then it turns to doggy doo. By the time Cramer comes on, my head is ready to explode. I learn more here than I could ever learn from the idiot box.

[Fuddnik]

52. Not half. Just about all of them.

They're paid shills. I don't even bother watching it any more.

[Demeter]

58. Welcome to the Autodidacts Club!

We are here to figure out just what really is going on, and what it might mean to our personal lives and the nation's future.

Figure out what you are trying to accomplish, then get the tools.

[Po_d Mainiac]

63. look who writes their paychecks..n/t

[Po_d Mainiac]

53. Depends on whether or not you feel that in 2014

We'll be looking at Q1 of 2011 as the "Good Ole Days"

[Demeter]

57. Get Educated

then go with your gut...

[xchrom]

60. did you get your car started? nt

[Demeter]

62. Yup!

And recharged. And ran around like an idiot. Now I'm on the phone, trying to find some firm foolish enough to move an antique, 1000 lb, lead-constructed player piano from annandale to ann arbor....

Had a firm lined up--they came in today, took one look, and refused to do it.

Now I'm chasing rigging and hauling and machinery movers....in Virginia. From Michigan. I am so underpaid...

[maddogesq]

61. One thing I did do that I think is wise for all fund investors.

Find an outfit you like (in my case, Calvert) and buy all your funds from them. That way, you can easily shift around stuff as desired. And yes, I agree I need to get edumucated, which is why I peek into this thread each day. :) Right now I have a spread that seems to have conistantly worked (62/38) over the past month, so my gut says don't mess with Texas.

I am standing firm on my silver, and it's up again today. Silver is the poor man's gold yunno.

As to the current interest rates on money market accounts...pffffttt...but safety net is safety net.

[StarburstClock]

64. 1st thing to know, investment advisors are all frauds

Our version of unregulated capitalism failed, it completely collapsed in 2008 and is only be propped up now. Investment advisers don't even recognize that it happened and instead choose to continue with the flawed paradigm and advise people accordingly, which as you've noticed is like listening to a pathological liar invent new lies all the time.

2nd thing to know: the markets are completely rigged and manipulated, the old idea of investing in a stock based on some fundamental research or underlying product they have is dead. Stocks only move now based on where a few large investment firms put their money as 70% of all market trading is done by the few. If you time your entrance into the market when the few have decided to take profits you're going to take a big hit.

Lastly, the U.S. is a completely corrupt country now with criminals in the highest positions in business and government. Investing now can only be done with that idea in mind, the investor is entering a criminal economy, not a rational one. All the forms of economics studied in schools are pure trash, the only economic model that can be applied is a criminal model. Sadly, that means it's all just a roll of the dice in a criminal game of craps in some dark alley full of thugs. My last few years as a trader I considered myself a corruption trader, not an investment professional. All an individual investor can do now is try to guess where the criminals are going to put their money, which they will only do for some undetermined time period.

If Americans can change this corruption model via enforcement of regulations that involves jail time for offenders then we have a chance of becoming a successful capitalistic country once again. In a country like that some of the old economic models can be applied but until then, we are all on our own.

[maddogesq]

72. That second point you made makes me want to...

take my ball and go home. That said, I will stay in the game, but play major defense.

[Ghost Dog]

76. Apposite summary. n/t

[hamerfan]

77. Hittin' the nail on the head!

"Lastly, the U.S. is a completely corrupt country now with criminals in the highest positions in business and government. Investing now can only be done with that idea in mind, the investor is entering a criminal economy, not a rational one. All the forms of economics studied in schools are pure trash, the only economic model that can be applied is a criminal model. Sadly, that means it's all just a roll of the dice in a criminal game of craps in some dark alley full of thugs. My last few years as a trader I considered myself a corruption trader, not an investment professional. All an individual investor can do now is try to guess where the criminals are going to put their money, which they will only do for some undetermined time period."
Wow, StarburstClock! Major points and kudos to you for splaining this so well in layman's terms.

[xchrom]

44. Energy stocks consolidate recent gains

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/energy-stocks-consolidate-recent-gains-2011-04-05

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Energy stocks moved in a flat-to-higher pattern Tuesday as the sector caught its breath after recent gains.

With crude-oil futures /quotes/comstock/21n!f:cl\k11 (CLK11 108.10, -0.37, -0.34%) holding near $108 a barrel, the NYSE Arca Oil Index /quotes/comstock/10t!xoi.x (XOI 1,390, +0.56, +0.04%) rose less than 0.1% to 1,390. See more on crude futures pulling back from 30-month highs.

[Festivito]

45. Debt: 04/01/2011 14,251,174,516,308.48 (DOWN 18,940,014,491.90) (Fri, DOWN some.)

(Good day.)
Back to Egyptian food.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,649,667,078,138.63 + 4,601,507,438,169.85
DOWN 1,976,076,000.10 + DOWN 16,963,938,491.80

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 312-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,208.25 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.62, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,696,192 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,721.36.
A family of three owes $137,164.09. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 3,400,735,932.69.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,607,230,881.73.
The average for the last 31 days would be 2,523,126,659.74.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 126 reports in 183 days of FY2011 averaging 5.47B$ per report, 3.77B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 660 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.2 and 17.7T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/01/2011 14,251,174,516,308.48 BHO (UP 3,624,297,467,395.40 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,689,551,485,416.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,375,334,929,929.49 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/11/2011 +000,832,058,508.78 ------------********
03/14/2011 +000,380,093,829.66 ------------******** Mon
03/15/2011 +066,006,214,426.70 ------------**********
03/16/2011 +001,148,655,957.01 ------------*********
03/17/2011 -014,916,428,437.31 -
03/18/2011 +000,616,236,061.23 ------------********
03/21/2011 -000,100,873,734.64 --- Mon
03/22/2011 +000,366,066,174.28 ------------********
03/23/2011 -000,063,255,741.95 ----
03/24/2011 -015,763,143,549.40 -
03/25/2011 -000,034,574,737.25 ----
03/28/2011 +000,227,402,237.21 ------------******** Mon
03/29/2011 +000,181,007,415.32 ------------********
03/30/2011 +000,670,089,469.30 ------------********
04/01/2011 -001,976,076,000.10 --

37,573,471,878.84 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4799782&mesg_id=4799940

[Festivito]

78. Debt: 04/04/2011 14,243,931,564,216.57 (DOWN 7,242,952,091.91) (Mon, UP a little.)

(Good day.)
A Mickey D again, for dessert!
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,650,003,952,066.04 + 4,593,927,612,150.53
UP 336,873,927.41 + DOWN 7,579,826,019.32

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 312-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.21 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,208.03 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.62, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 311,717,792 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $45,694.96.
A family of three owes $137,084.88. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 20 reports in the last 30 to 31 days.
The average for the last 20 reports is 3,065,218,966.78.
The average for the last 30 days would be 2,043,479,311.18.
The average for the last 31 days would be 1,977,560,623.73.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 126 reports in 186 days of FY2011 averaging 5.42B$ per report, 3.67B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 657 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.1 and 17.6T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
04/04/2011 14,243,931,564,216.57 BHO (UP 3,617,054,515,303.49 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +0,682,308,533,324.80 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,338,938,788,513.72 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
03/11/2011 +000,832,058,508.78 ------------********
03/14/2011 +000,380,093,829.66 ------------******** Mon
03/15/2011 +066,006,214,426.70 ------------**********
03/16/2011 +001,148,655,957.01 ------------*********
03/17/2011 -014,916,428,437.31 -
03/18/2011 +000,616,236,061.23 ------------********
03/21/2011 -000,100,873,734.64 --- Mon
03/22/2011 +000,366,066,174.28 ------------********
03/23/2011 -000,063,255,741.95 ----
03/24/2011 -015,763,143,549.40 -
03/25/2011 -000,034,574,737.25 ----
03/28/2011 +000,227,402,237.21 ------------******** Mon
03/29/2011 +000,181,007,415.32 ------------********
03/30/2011 +000,670,089,469.30 ------------********
04/04/2011 +000,336,873,927.41 ------------******** Mon

39,886,421,806.35 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4801278&mesg_id=4801409

[AnneD]

65. Hey Tansy....

I just got my hand smacked. Was at another thread and did some truth telling about Obama's term. I guess you might say I pulled a Biden, but the facts are the facts and I said nothing worse than I hope the Dem party realized how much they alienated their real base by playing up to their corporate base. Of course I mentioned the pro's of a candidate who shall not be mentioned.....Treasury , anti war, turd in the punch bowl......

Nowhere Man post 71. How many hand slaps til you are tomb stoned? Just curious.

[DemReadingDU]

68. Usually no warnings

I rarely stray from the SMW

[AnneD]

69. Wise advice.....

EOM

[Fuddnik]

70. I saw that, you evil doer, you!

No soup for you!

[AnneD]

71. Oh the cruel irony.....

he who will not be named..... :sarcasm:

[Demeter]

74. Now You've got me curious

PM?

[Demeter]

75. Hope PBD is all right

gonna check the tombstones...

[Demeter]

79. Car 54, Where Are You?

[Pale Blue Dot]

80. Sorry, Demeter and everyone!

I'm having computer issues that won't be resolved until Thursday (I'm borrowing a friends for a moment to send this message). Hopefully Demeter will be willing to start this thread tomorrow again. I'm hoping to be back up and running on Thursday.