NDP leapfrogs Liberals to land in second spot in ‘astonishing’ twist(Canadian election news)

[Ken Burch]

Source: Ipolitics.ca

The NDP has steamrolled over the Liberal Party to land in second place nationally behind the front-running Conservatives, a new poll shows.

The EKOS-iPolitics survey of more than 3,000 Canadians finds 28 per cent of decided voters now support the NDP, compared to 23.7 per cent who plan to vote Liberal. The Conservatives hold less than a six-point lead, sitting with 33.7 per cent support with just one week to go before election day.

Pollster Frank Graves calls it an unprecedented turn and “astonishing shift” for the NDP, which has traditionally trailed the two other main federal parties. Leader Jack Layton is climbing most dramatically in Quebec, but building momentum in all regions of the country.

“We have seen almost from Day One a slow, steady and now a dramatic rise where the NDP has gone from 14 points in a pre-writ poll to 28 points,” Graves said. “That is a doubling — I’ve never seen anything close to that.





Read more: http://ipolitics.ca/2011/04/25/ndp-leapfrogs-liberals-to-landin-second-spot-in-astonishing-campaign-twist/

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Great news for Canada's TRUE anti-Tory party. The NDP is now THE alternative to Stephen Harper's "Dubya North" policies. This is the most dramatic and hopeful news since the rise of the NDP's predecessor, the Cooperative Commonwealth Federation, to provincial power in Saskatchewan in 1944-the first social democratic government(at that time)elected anywhere in North America.

GO ORANGE!

TRAVAILLONS ENSEMBLE!

[Puzzler]

1. I'm voting NDP in my area (riding)

[Swede]

3. Ditto

Liberal doesn't have a chance here.

[Ken Burch]

13. Good for you. What riding is that, may I ask?

n/t.

[Puzzler]

15. Victoria riding (Denise Savoie)

http://www.denisesavoie.ca/

[Ken Burch]

22. Great. I've heard a lot about Denise and admire her greatly.

And it makes a nice "national unity" statement that just about the westernmost-riding in all of Canada would elect a francophone.

[Lautremont]

21. Me too.

And my mother, a Liberal die-hard (I thought), has already cast her vote - for the NDP.

[arikara]

46. We voted last night

for NDP. Garrison Randall. This is just so exciting, there such a surge of young people involved with the election this time around.

[OnlinePoker]

49. Hardly see any DeSuza signs (Conservative) here

Almost all I see is Randall Garrison. DeSuza (sp?) only lost by 50 votes or so to Liberal Keith Martin in the last election, but with Martin leaving politics, it's allowing Garrison to suck up a lot of votes from a Liberal most people have never heard of.

[arikara]

52. There's a few around here

but more for Randall Garrison. Fingers crossed.

[DeSwiss]

2. Canuckers, here's to good luck at getting your country back!!!

- K&R

[HankyDubs]

20. +1

Good luck to ya hosers! Look south and see all the warning you should ever need!

[Ken Burch]

25. Somewhere out there, Kiefer Sutherland's granpa is smiling

[AllyCat]

35. Yeah, especially since I would like to move there now that ours is all screwed up

Fight (not for me though :)! Fight! You deserve better than what you are getting right now!

[freshwest]

4. What a good day!

:yourock:

[pscot]

5. +1

[nenagh]

6. That's great news, thanks..

:)

[Keith Bee]

7. Quick! Get Bush's 2000 Florida Team up there!

We have to save our friends up north from democracy!

[Pab Sungenis]

8. Sadly, it doesn't seem to be translating into seats

according to http://www.electionprediction.org/ the Tories are still running away with it, and the NDP are still in third place in number of seats. Hopefully they'll be able to make enough of a case to be a strong second-place finisher and form a coalition with the Liberals and Bloc that can really stand up to the fascist right.

[Ken Burch]

11. In Quebec, it likely will

The NDP is at 39% support there in the EKOS poll, beating the Bloc Quebecois by thirteen points. Montreal will likely go strongly NDP and a number of Bloc ridings in other areas(where the Bloc was supported as a left party as much as a separatist party)are likely to swing Orange as well.

The crucial battleground is Toronto. it's the last area where the NDP is heavily behind the Liberals, and if that flips, it will be a cliffhanger between the NDP and the Tories overall.

And, from what I've been reading, the Election Prediction site has constructed itself to have a delay in registering swings in popular vote opinion and, consequently, seat projections. We may not see that site or the other seat projection sites catch up until this weekend, if at all.

[Puzzler]

14. Yes, exactly.

[Pab Sungenis]

16. I hope you are right.

The Harperites are NOT the traditional Tories. They're the Alliance, the Reformers, the Social-Creditists, everything bad about Canadian politics. They HAVE to be rooted out, by whomever can possibly do it.

[Ken Burch]

23. Plus, in Quebec, they have some of the heritage of the Ralliement Creditiste

(the far-right and at times openly antisemitic Quebec wing of the Social Credit Party)and the authoritarian, ultrareligious heritage of the Union Nationale government of Maurice Duplessis.

So, if the NDP DOES make massive gains in Quebec, as these polls seem to foretell, it may be the final triumph of the "Quiet Revolution" politics of the 1960's that made Quebec a secular and progressive place for the first time in its history.

[chollybocker]

41. It's crazy (in a good way) what's happening in Qc.

Record crowd turns out for NDP rally in MOntreal:

http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/decision-canada/Record+crowd+turns+rally+MOntreal/4665425/story.html

[Posteritatis]

42. The NDP passing the Bloc in Quebec is simply astonishing. (nt)

[No Elephants]

38. Maybe the Left vote is split too many ways?

[Ken Burch]

40. What seems to be happening now is that that vote is unifying...behind the NDP

The Liberals are heading for the boneyard now everywhere but Toronto. I predict that if the NDP hits 30% in the last polls, Toronto will join the Orange Wave as well. They're going to realize that it's absurd to express their anger at the Bob Rae government by voting for the party that Bob Rae supports NOW.

[Bragi]

44. Yes it is. It's what makes Harper PM /nt

[Ken Burch]

53. It's uniting now...behind the NDP.

The Martin government could have prevented all of this by just changing the electoral system to proportional representation. Then Harper would never have been close to being able to govern.

[Alexander]

9. This is what happens when both parties are similar and voters are given a clear alternative.

If you look at the history of third parties in the US, it tells the same story.

9 times out of 10, when the third party does well, it's because the two main parties are very similar when it comes to the major issues, and the third party is the only one that offers a clear alternative.

[Puzzler]

10. In this case the NDP and Liberals are more similar.

[w4rma]

12. Very good! The NDP needs to be the new dominant Canadian party! (nt)

[Puzzler]

17. The NDP leader Jack Layton has run a strong campaign...

... not to mention that he is the most charismatic of the party leaders, IMHO.

[Zorra]

18. Congratulations, Canada!

[mountainlion55]

19. Sounds like

the political rot in the U.S. has spread to Canada. Good luck with it.:smoke:

[Name removed]

24. Deleted message

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[craigmatic]

26. What are the chances that the support for NDP collapses and people vote liberal or con?

What would happen if the NDP and the grits each get about 25%? Would they form coalition against the tories?

[Ken Burch]

27. I think there could be an unofficial arrangement

Iggy made a point of saying he wouldn't actually form a coalition with the other opposition parties.

Worst case scenario(both for Canada AND the Liberal Party) is that he might support another minority Harper government(essentially that's what the Liberals HAVE done since 2008)which would likely cause a catastrophic split in the Liberals(on the lines of the split in their British counterparts during World War One)which would bring the party to collapse.

It's entirely possible, though, that Iggy WOULD do that just to stick it to Layton. It will depend on how vindictive he's feeling after the election and what offer the NDP makes to whatever Liberals survive May 2nd.

[Posteritatis]

43. Negligible, and unlikely, respectively

Jumping from the NDP to the Conservatives would be the equivalent of someone jumping from a party considerably to the left of the Democrats to voting Republican; it's basically the opposite end of the political spectrum up here.

A coalition isn't terribly likely; the Liberals don't care for the idea, and Harper's got a lot of the electorate terrified of the idea. "The Liberals and their coalition" - an outright lie, since Ignatieff shot down the option literally in the first hour of the campaign - has basically been the only thing Harper's campaigned on this election, and he's successfully convinced a depressing number of people that it's constitutionally invalid, a Bad Thing, etc.

I still wouldn't mind seeing it happen, though.

[OswegoAtheist]

28. Good!

I've been hitting the bricks here in Upstate trying to track down Canadian ex-pats who are still eligible to vote. There's a real sense of urgency in that community here (Upstate NY, centred around the hockey-heavy college), probably because they recognise the "Dubya lite" tendencies of Harper, and we've had enough of that here in our adopted homeland, thankyouverymuch.

Oswego "But what fun is it if you don't have four years of fundraising separated by one day of voting?" Atheist

[iandhr]

29. Since Canada is a first past the post system...

Can' t this help Harper? The NDP and Liberals will split the vote. Also lets not forget the bloc quebecois.

[applegrove]

32. It looks to my like the NDP and the liberals have just switched places and three parties

are in the same position as they have been for the last two elections. I was worried yesterday that this would mean a conservative majority but at 33.7% that is not enough votes to push the neocons over the top.

[iandhr]

34. the difference seems to be Layton

much more charismatic the Ignatieff

[applegrove]

36. I'm sure Ignatieff would make a rocking Prime Ministre. He just doesn't

have the political experience to communicate well with voters. Layton is an old pro.

[applegrove]

30. As long as the conservatives do not get a majority... that is all I ask.

[Amonester]

31. Votons Nouveau Parti Dem !!

Mon premier vote NPD !! :bounce:

[Monk06]

33. If the NDP outperforms the Liberals and the Tories in Quebic then I predict

an NDP/Liberal coalition government and the Tories
tied in second with the Libs. Which means the Tories
lose and Harper is finished as the leader of the
Conservatives. I hope that's what happens but a
week away is probably not enough time for the tide
to turn.

[arikara]

48. That would be a dream come true

get rid of Harper any way possible.

[lonestarnot]

37. Good!

[mikeburetta]

39. go ndp

google "mouseland" and here tony douglas put it in straight terms!

[DirkGently]

45. Sounds delicious. Like an anti-Tea Party Party carrying the day.

[xchrom]

47. recommend

[Exultant Democracy]

50. I wish we had a parliamentary system, the two party system is killing us.

[brooklynite]

51. I don't see any likelihood of change...

While NDP may get to form the "loyal opposition" (note - I acknowledge that I have no information on how national polls translate into individual seats), it doesn't look as though the Tories are any weaker