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I've just been re-reading the Patrick O'Brian sea saga (the Aubrey-Maturin novels), a very realistic portrayal of sailoring in the early 18th century, in which human beings had begun to routinely take 2-3 year commercial voyages in a very dangerous environment, indeed--the sea. O'Brian stresses this extreme danger, true in the era of the tall ships and still true today, though less so, today, I suspect, due to scientific/engineering improvements. But, to draw an analogy to outer space, we are barely out of the canoe era--i.e., very early sea travel generally hugging the shoreline--that is, we've only gotten as far as the moon, using technology that seems mindbogglingly primitive today (no computer chips). As to outer space, we are like the first venturers onto the sea.
Although it has become evident that the Pacific islanders, the Phoenicians, the Vikings and others ventured far--using brilliantly engineered but low tech (by our standards) ships, or, in the case of the Phoenicians, highly sophisticated maps--they did so at great risk, and most people were terrified of the sea for good reason--including giant, unpredictable storms, giant waves, whirlpools, icebergs, getting lost, starving to death, dying of exposure to cold or heat, falling overboard, hitting reefs, approaching strange and hostile shores, and more. My point is that this did not stop the human race from exploring its own "vasty deep" right here on earth. Adventure seems to be in our DNA. To say that outer space is dangerous is to say nothing, really. Of course it's dangerous. Some of us like dangerous. And we characteristically engineer to overcome dangers as well as distance.
I think it is pretty much inevitable that human beings will inhabit the solar system, if, for no other reason than that we are greatly overpopulating earth and are running out of room and resources. The only "ifs," I think, are, nuclear war in this century which, according to Carl Sagan, will snuff out all life on earth very quickly--in a matter of months--due to dust clouds killing vegetation and of course nuclear radiation. He says this will happen even with a limited nuclear exchange, and earth is still bristling with nuclear weapons. I do think this will likely change over the century--that is, abandonment of nuclear weapons (as well as nuclear energy), short of complete catastrophe. The other "if" is global warming--a very, complex, but very lethal set of impacts from our own industrialization that may kill the planet. According to the World Wildlife Fund, we have less than 50 years, at current levels of consumption, pollution and deforestation--less than 50 years to the death of the planet.
So we may truncate the human enterprise altogether by failing to maintain a livable habitat (earth) before we develop the technology for relatively safe (some "sailors" survive) space travel and colonization. Danger has never stopped us.
Our main problem is that our technological ability outruns our wisdom. And we have been unable to devise a governmental system that combines both freedom (essential to innovation) and wisdom (essential to understanding all impacts). We did have one in the '60s and '70s, in the U.S.--a real democracy in which 80% of the people wanted strong regulation and protection of the environment, and were able to push government to do the will of the people. Innovation is great. Killing the planet is not. But we lost that democracy beginning with Reagan, and I don't see much hope of getting it back. Europe and Latin America, on the other hand, have strong environmental trends and fairly responsive governments (indeed, a democracy revolution in Latin America, often led by the Indigenous who reverence Mother Earth). I have not given up hope that we will restore earth's biosphere, and, if we do, the natural extrapolation is that we will use that knowledge (how to restore biological systems) for space travel and colonization, and especially for terraforming other planets (creating earth-like environments elsewhere).
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