STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday, August 5, 2011

[Pale Blue Dot]

Source: du

STOCK MARKET WATCH, Friday, August 5, 2011

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 4, 2011

Dow 11,383.68 -512.76 (-4.50%)
Nasdaq 2,556.39 -136.68 (-5.35%)
S&P 500 1,200.07 -60.27 (-5.02%)
10-Yr Bond... 2.42 +0.02 (+0.92%)
30-Year Bond 3.69 +0.03 (+0.82%)

---

Market Conditions During Trading Hours

Euro, Yen, Loonie, Silver and Gold

---

Handy Links - Market Data and News:Economic Calendar    Marketwatch Data    Bloomberg Economic News    Yahoo! Finance    Google Finance    Bank Tracker    
Credit Union Tracker    Daily Job Cuts

Handy Links - Economic Blogs:
The Big Picture    Financial Sense    Calculated Risk    Naked Capitalism    Credit Writedowns
Brad DeLong      Bonddad    Atrios    goldmansachs666    The Stand-Up Economist

Handy Links - Government Issues:
LegitGov    Open Government    Earmark Database    USA spending.gov

Handy Links - Videos:
The Coming Collapse of the Middle Class    Charlie Rose talks with Roubini    Charlie Rose talks with Krugman
    William Black: This Economic Disaster    Bill Moyers with Kevin Drum and David Corn

Bush Administration Officials Convicted = 2
Names: David Safavian, James Fondren
Dishonorable Mention: former House majority leader, Tom DeLay

Bush Administration Officials Charged = 1
Name(s): Richard Lopez Razo

Financial Sector Officials Convicted since 1/20/09 = 12

---

---

This thread contains opinions and observations. Individuals may post their experiences, inferences and opinions on this thread. However, it should not be construed as advice. It is unethical (and probably illegal) for financial recommendations to be given here.

Read more: du

[Pale Blue Dot]

1. Today's Reports - It's all about unemployment

Aug 05 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Jul 50K 84K 18K
Aug 05 08:30 Nonfarm Private Payrolls Jul 75K 100K 57K
Aug 05 08:30 Unemployment Rate Jul 9.3% 9.2% 9.2%
Aug 05 08:30 Hourly Earnings Jul 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Aug 05 08:30 Average Workweek Jul 34.3 34.3 34.3
Aug 05 15:00 Consumer Credit Jun $5.0B $5.0B $5.076B

Read more: http://www.briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2011/08/01-05/#ixzz1U9QsOp7b

[Pale Blue Dot]

5. Ok - If the unemployment reports could be manipulated

I'm not saying they are, just if they could be - and I wanted stocks to stop their freefall, what would I do? I need the report to be "unexpectedly" positive, but i can't go overboard because all of the preliminary reports have been awful. So I think I'd settle on having about 181K jobs created and the rate falling to 9.1%

So: 181K jobs created and 9.1%. You heard it here first. :-)

[Demeter]

7. Not that it will work--but they will certainly try

It's a crying shame that we cannot expect the plain unvarnished facts from simple data collection from our own government...when did the data manipulation start? Vietnam, or earlier?

[Ghost Dog]

29. Vietnam, it was decided, was too much truth in the media. == "defeat".

So, that was the catalyst. The response we have since been seeing started shortly thereafter.

(However, lookee there, ... arms and drugs smuggling permitted re. Mexican "amigos"... in the MSM!).

[Pale Blue Dot]

52. Holy crap - I pretty much called it. 154K jobs created and 9.1%

Cue Twilight Zone music.

[PATRICK]

57. Cynical predictability

You may have a future as a predictor!

[florida08]

59. it's the centrist way of reporting/governing

[Demeter]

63. I Smell a Nobel Economics Prize in Your Future

Ozy would be so proud.

[Po_d Mainiac]

91. Welcome to the dark side! n/t

[Fuddnik]

38. Here's the thing that really pisses me off.

And I'll be writing an editorial about it.

For two years, these jackasses have been telling us that 8-9% unemployment is the "new normal".

Only because you let it assholes. Only because you let it. Any other administration with a shred of decency would be trying to create jobs. Not negotiating more free trade agreements.

[Pale Blue Dot]

40. But free trade agreements create jobs!

Elsewhere.

[Fuddnik]

45. And dancing and prayer create rain in Texas.

[Pale Blue Dot]

49. That's what cured my acne, too!

:-)

[Pale Blue Dot]

66. Be prepared for a slew of "See! Everything's fine!" posts.

Wee!

[Fuddnik]

78. They're already rolling.

[Pale Blue Dot]

94. Labor Force Participation Rate Drops To 63.9%, Lowest Since January 1984

While we still await for BLS.gov to finally come back up online half an hour after printing the actual NFP number, here is the one data point that we know for a fact: the labor force participation rate, and the reason why the general unemployment rate declined to 9.1%, just dropped to 63.9%, the lowest in 16 years, or matches the participation rate from January 1984.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/labor-force-participation-rate-drops-639
-lowest-january-1984

[Hugin]

99. This looks like the perfect spot to repeat Talking Dog's profound post from Wed...

I was quite frankly, shocked... By it's profound truth.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4945567&mesg_id=4945733

:scared:

[Pale Blue Dot]

2. Oil near $85 as outlook for crude demand dims

SINGAPORE – Oil prices extended sharp losses, falling to near $85 a barrel Friday in Asia amid expectations a slowing global economy will weaken demand for crude.

Benchmark oil for September delivery was down $1.31 to $85.32 a barrel at late afternoon Singapore time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Crude tumbled $5.30 to settle at $86.63 on Thursday.

In London, Brent crude was down $1.56 at $105.69 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Oil and other commodities were dragged down by a plunge in global stock markets as traders lost confidence in U.S. economic growth. The Dow Jones industrial average sank 4.3 percent Thursday and stock markets in Asia opened sharply lower Friday.

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/ap/oil_prices

[Demeter]

9. I need to fill up today--let you know if the price change has filtered through to the pump

[Pale Blue Dot]

10. It was 3.77 today - exactly the same as it has been for a month. nt

[burf]

47. Gas went down

a nickle here yesterday.

[DemReadingDU]

81. our gas has gone up 0.11

SW Ohio
from $3.64 to $3.75


Edit
Some low gas prices kinda in the area at $3.55. Maybe it is worth it to drive 20 miles to save 0.20 per gallon.

[Roland99]

48. If oil goes up even $2/bbl, gas can shoot up 10-20 cents. It dropped, what $6/bbl yesterday???

gas won't change...not right away anyway.


fuckers.

[Demeter]

119. Well, at least gas didn't go up

$3.69 was the cheapest, $3.79 the most, down Gasoline Alley

[Hawkowl]

110. Looks like the bottom just fell out

On the crude chart it looks like the support has been busted and crude is on the verge of free fall. This makes sense since the price is propped up by speculators who are using ridiculous leverage ratios of 10:1 and higher. So as the equity markets unravel and the credit markets still suck, it should suck the commodity markets into the massive whirlpool of runaway deflation.

This looks awfully like 1937.

[Pale Blue Dot]

3. U.S. Stock Futures Fall, Signaling S&P 500 May Extend Worst Loss Since ’09

U.S. stock index futures retreated, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may extend the biggest drop since February 2009, amid deepening concerns of a global economic slowdown.

S&P 500 futures expiring in September lost 0.5 percent to 1,192.5 as of 3:12 p.m. in Hong Kong as equity benchmarks in Asia plunged. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures expiring the same month declined 70 points, or 0.6 percent, to 11,301.

More than $4.4 trillion has been wiped off equity market values worldwide since July 26, driving the MSCI All-Country World Index down more than 10 percent from this year’s high and into a so-called correction. The S&P 500 has fallen eight out of the past nine days, losing 11 percent since July 7.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-05/u-s-stock-futures-fall-signaling-s-p-500-may-extend-worst-loss-since-09.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

64. Dow futures up 129 pts. on unemployment reports. nt

[Demeter]

120. Looks like the DOW didn't read the Futures

a whole 27 pts.

[Fuddnik]

123. Down 200+ a few minutes ago. Now up 120+.

Futures still down 125.

Crazy day.

[Demeter]

131. 3:15 and down 5 pts

Sign of a heart attack?

[Demeter]

4. First Rec! Good morning in this post-apocalyptic world

Although that's being optimistic: the Apocalypse is going to run for a long time...this weekend we are putting on the dog, going to the dogs, living the dog days, looking like a dog's breakfast...and celebrating the First Friend, as Kipling called him.

Happy Birthday, Rosco!

Oh, and following the collapse of the global economy...

[Loge23]

13. Recovery's bark bigger than it's bite

...looks like we screwed the pooch now.
Ahh, cliches and coffee, for the want of a crossword puzzle!
Put a sausage candle in Roscoe's bowl today!
Good luck today, folks - it should be quite a ride.

[Demeter]

15. Groaners at this hour?

Have mercy! My eyes are barely open.

[Festivito]

6. Debt: 08/03/2011 14,574,607,940,062.25 (DOWN 6,096,803,018.72) (Wed, DOWN a little after the jump.)

(UNDER the new 2011 debt limit of 14.694-trillion dollars by 280.608-billion dollars. Good day.)
I'd better hurry.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,907,654,619,535.26 + 4,666,953,320,526.99
DOWN 98,125,325.28 + DOWN 5,998,677,693.44

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 313-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.20 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,199.09 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.60, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 312,588,992 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $46,625.47.
A family of three owes $139,876.4. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 22 reports in the last 30 to 34 days.
The average for the last 22 reports is 10,523,650,002.45.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,717,343,335.13.
The average for the last 34 days would be 6,809,420,589.82.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 208 reports in 307 days of FY2011 averaging 4.87B$ per report, 3.30B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 536 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.3 and 18.2T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/03/2011 14,574,607,940,062.25 BHO (UP 3,947,730,891,149.17 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +1,012,984,909,170.50 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,204,363,165,626.16 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/14/2011 -001,516,331,672.50 --
07/15/2011 +003,100,504,281.51 ------------*********
07/18/2011 +000,238,790,593.83 ------------******** Mon
07/19/2011 +000,061,099,321.97 ------------*******
07/20/2011 -000,246,591,087.61 ---
07/21/2011 -006,272,699,061.03 --
07/22/2011 +000,804,035,241.16 ------------********
07/25/2011 -000,991,970,057.94 --- Mon
07/26/2011 +000,075,256,672.36 ------------*******
07/27/2011 +000,470,569,863.89 ------------********
07/28/2011 +005,447,179,210.73 ------------*********
07/29/2011 +002,605,572,370.14 ------------*********
08/01/2011 +027,273,368,503.87 ------------********** Mon
08/02/2011 +124,683,694,907.85 ------------***********
08/03/2011 -000,098,125,325.28 ----

155,634,353,762.95 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4946768&mesg_id=4948434

[DemReadingDU]

84. That was an incredible amount yesterday, UP 238,346,302,111.87

wow!

So the new debt limit increases bit by bit when it is needed, instead of the entire 2.4 trillion all at once?


edit to add yesterday's posting by Festivito
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4946768&mesg_id=4948434

[Festivito]

97. I'd say a quarter-trillion went from stock market to federal securities, i.e. our national debt.

That would be reason for the stock market to crash, or look like it was crashing.

The monies exchanging from stocks to securities could and should have been accomplished more slowly allowing time for the market to adjust over a few weeks -- but, NOOOOOOO.

Now everything has to re-adjust to what it would have been had we been borrowing slowly but surely over this whole debt limiting talk time.

Crazy country we live in.

[Po_d Mainiac]

101. That was all the money tiny turbo took from

dedicated accounts..SS and Fed Employee retirements (etc)

[Festivito]

135. Debt: 08/04/2011 14,564,970,167,709.38 (DOWN 9,637,772,352.87) (Thu, DOWN a lot.)

(UNDER the new 2011 debt limit of 14.694-trillion dollars by 270.970-billion dollars. Good day.)
Raining on a Saturday.
(Debt under Obama seems to jump up big then drop slowly maybe up a little and down a little for days--repeat.)
= Held by the Public + Intragovernmental(FICA)
= 9,894,847,066,139.37 + 4,670,123,101,570.01
DOWN 12,807,553,395.89 + UP 3,169,781,043.02

Source: Debt to the penny:
http://www.treasurydirect.gov/NP/BPDLogin?application=np

THINKING IN BILLIONS: Think 3 or 4 dollars per billion in a 313-Million person America.
If every American, man, woman and child puts in $3.20 THAT'S 1B$, and $3,199.02 makes 1T$.
A family of three: Mom, Dad, Child: $9.60, ABOUT TEN BUCKS for a 1B$ federal program.
I hope that is clear. However, I'd suggest using $3 per 1B$ to underestimate it.
Use $4 per 1B$ to overestimate the cost when thinking: Is the federal program worth it?
Aid to Dependant Children: 2B$/yr =$8/yr(a movie a year) Family of 3: $24/yr(an hour of bowling)

PERSONALIZED DEBT:
Every 12 seconds we net gain another American, so at the end of the workday of the report, there should be 312,596,192 people in America.
http://www.census.gov/population/www/popclockus.html ON 10/04/2010 04:37 -> 310,403,677
Currently, each of these Americans owe $46,593.56.
A family of three owes $139,780.69. (And that is IN ADDITION to their mortgage.)

ANALYSIS:
There were 23 reports in the last 30 to 35 days.
The average for the last 23 reports is 9,647,066,421.78.
The average for the last 30 days would be 7,396,084,256.70.
The average for the last 35 days would be 6,339,500,791.45.
There were 252 reports in 365 days of FY2007 averaging 1.99B$ per report, 1.37B$/day.
There were 253 reports in 366 days of FY2008 averaging 4.02B$ per report, 2.78B$/day.
There were 75 reports in 112 days of GWB's part of FY2009 averaging 8.03B$ per report, 5.38B$/day.
There were 174 reports in 253 days of Obama's part of FY2009 averaging 7.33B$ per report, 5.07B$/day so far.
There were 249 reports in 365 days of FY2009 averaging 7.57B$ per report, 5.16B$/day.
There were 251 reports in 365 days of FY2010 averaging 6.58B$ per report, 4.53B$/day.
There were 209 reports in 308 days of FY2011 averaging 4.80B$ per report, 3.26B$/day.
Above line should be okay

PROJECTION:
There are 535 days remaining in this Obama 1st term.
By that time the debt could be between 15.3 and 18.0T$.
It could be higher. It could be lower.

HISTORICAL:
President's term begins and ends on Jan 20.
(Guess who might want to hide the Reagan Bush years. Jan 20 data is missing before 1993.)
01/20/1993 _4,188,092,107,183.60 WJC Inaugural
01/22/2001 _5,728,195,796,181.57 WJC (UP 1,540,103,688,997.97)
01/20/2009 10,626,877,048,913.08 GWB (UP 4,898,681,252,731.43)
08/04/2011 14,564,970,167,709.38 BHO (UP 3,938,093,118,796.30 so far since Obama took office.)

FISCAL YEAR DEBT CHANGE, Sep 30 prior year to Sep 30 named year:
(One "* " for each 40B$ reached)
FY1994 +0,281,261,026,873.94 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1995 +0,281,232,990,696.07 ------------* * * * * * * WJC
FY1996 +0,250,828,038,426.34 ------------* * * * * * WJC
FY1997 +0,188,335,072,261.61 ------------* * * * WJC
FY1998 +0,113,046,997,500.28 ------------* * WJC
FY1999 +0,130,077,892,735.81 ------------* * * WJC
FY2000 +0,017,907,308,253.43 ------------WJC
FY2001 +0,133,285,202,313.20 ------------* * * C&B
01-WJC +0,053,598,528,417.78 ------------* WJC 31% of FY, 40% of FY-Debt
01-GWB +0,079,686,673,895.42 ------------* GWB 69% of FY, 60% of FY-Debt
FY2002 +0,420,772,553,397.10 ------------* * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2003 +0,554,995,097,146.46 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2004 +0,595,821,633,586.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2005 +0,553,656,965,393.18 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2006 +0,574,264,237,491.73 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2007 +0,500,679,473,047.25 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2008 +1,017,071,524,649.92 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB
FY2009 +1,885,104,106,599.30 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * B&O
09GWB +0,602,152,152,000.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * GWB 31% of FY, 32% of FY-Debt
09-BHO +1,282,951,954,598.70 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO 69% of FY, 68% of FY-Debt
FY2010 +1,651,794,027,380.00 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
FY2011 +1,003,347,136,817.60 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO
Endof11 +1,189,031,509,540.34 ------------* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * BHO

LAST FIFTEEN REPORTS OF ADDITIONS TO PUBLIC DEBT(NOT FICA):
07/15/2011 +003,100,504,281.51 ------------*********
07/18/2011 +000,238,790,593.83 ------------******** Mon
07/19/2011 +000,061,099,321.97 ------------*******
07/20/2011 -000,246,591,087.61 ---
07/21/2011 -006,272,699,061.03 --
07/22/2011 +000,804,035,241.16 ------------********
07/25/2011 -000,991,970,057.94 --- Mon
07/26/2011 +000,075,256,672.36 ------------*******
07/27/2011 +000,470,569,863.89 ------------********
07/28/2011 +005,447,179,210.73 ------------*********
07/29/2011 +002,605,572,370.14 ------------*********
08/01/2011 +027,273,368,503.87 ------------********** Mon
08/02/2011 +124,683,694,907.85 ------------***********
08/03/2011 -000,098,125,325.28 ----
08/04/2011 -012,807,553,395.89 -

144,343,132,039.56 Total of 15 above reports.

Heavy borrowing seems to start after 09/18/2008 while Bush was in power JUST BEFORE fiscal year end.
Bush admin borrowed $962,245,245,654.01 in those last 124 days in office crossing two fiscal years.
$360,093,093,653.42 in last 12 days of FY2008, and $602,152,152,000.59 in subsequent 112 days before leaving office.

For a prettier and more explanatory view of our nation's debt:
http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
DUer primer on National debt

(Debt to the penny keeps changing. Stuff is missing. Best to keep our own history.) LAST REPORT:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=102&topic_id=4948441&mesg_id=4948450

[Fuddnik]

8. Happy Birthday Rosco!

But, you still can't have my pasta! Disregard the fat guy in the picture,



And Queen Sara sits on her throne. She'll be two in a couple of weeks.

[Fuddnik]

17. Got teeth?

[Ghost Dog]

31. Can smell them from here.

:)

[Demeter]

44. Too much information; too much reality

Rosco, the grandpuppy is here: Happy Birthday from Jack the Beagledor!

http://co107w.col107.mail.live.com/att/GetAttachment.aspx?tnail=0&messageId=57b899fc-b3bc-11e0-9461-002264c2033c&Aux=44|0|8CE15E0428AD130||0|0|0|0||&maxwidth=220&maxheight=160&size=Att

[Uben]

18. Please delete these pics.....

....my black lab is trying to hump my monitor!

[Fuddnik]

27. Take him to the movies!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QLjgtarK10

[Demeter]

11. Obama Turns 50 Despite Republican Opposition

http://www.theonion.com/articles/obama-turns-50-despite-republican-opposition,21061/

After months of heated negotiations and failed attempts to achieve any kind of consensus, President Obama turned 50 years old Thursday, drawing strong criticism from Republicans in Congress. "With the host of problems this country is currently facing, the fact that our president is devoting time to the human process of aging is an affront to Americans everywhere," said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, who advocated a provision to keep Obama 49 at least through the fall of 2013. "To move forward unilaterally and simply begin the next year of his life without bipartisan support—is that any way to lead a country?" According to White House officials, Obama attempted to work with Republicans right up until the Aug. 4 deadline, but was ultimately left with no choice except to turn a year older.

[Fuddnik]

12. Boner and McConnell are calling for an investigation.

[Demeter]

14. End the Debt Limit NYT

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/05/opinion/end-the-debt-limit.html

It has long been clear that the federal debt limit is far too dangerous and unstable for lawmakers to use as a political weapon. Allowing that to happen in the last few traumatic weeks created an artificial national crisis that put the economy and the savings of Americans at risk and helped produce a loss of confidence that lingered as a cause of Thursday’s stock-market plunge.

None of that, however, has stopped Republican leaders, who announced this week that they intend to repeat this explosive episode over and over, in perpetuity. With the bad memory still fresh, President Obama should quickly seize the opportunity to make clear that he will not allow it even once more, never mind permanently. Instead of raising the debt ceiling every few years, it’s time to eliminate this dangerous game once and for all...As this page said in 1961 — not remotely for the first time or the last — the “debt limit does not limit the debt.” It’s an illusion of a law, instituted in World War I, to persuade gullible taxpayers that Congress is exercising responsible oversight over borrowing. Congress already controls spending and taxation, and if it wants a smaller debt it can cut spending or raise taxes at will. To allow the deficit to rise, and then refuse to pay for it months later, is the definition of financial irresponsibility.

But being irresponsible worked for Republicans this time. They refused to raise the limit without cuts in spending and won $2.5 trillion in cuts in the deal wrapped up on Tuesday. Now they want to make permanent the arbitrary and simplistic standard devised by Speaker John Boehner — a dollar of cuts for every dollar in the debt increase...The debt limit should ideally be dispensed with, but, at a minimum, it can no longer be held for ransom. The president and Congress are free to continue talks to reduce the deficit, but not while the economy is dangling in the balance. The president should assemble a coalition of business leaders, mayors, governors and ordinary Americans ready to spend the next year explaining to voters why the debt limit should be eliminated, or blunted as a tool to change budgetary policy. If Democrats continuously remind the country how dangerous this path is, Republicans may think twice about repeating it...If they do not, Mr. Obama could meet their challenge with a legal threat. The White House has repeatedly demurred when asked if a provision of the 14th Amendment could be used to declare the debt ceiling invalid, saying it was an untested theory. There is more than a year for administration lawyers to find ways to put it into practice.

The 14th Amendment, adopted during Reconstruction, says the validity of the public debt of the United States cannot be questioned. Threatening the economy with calamity to achieve partisan goals does just that. President Obama should use every power at his disposal to fend off Republicans’ irresponsible threats and invite them to meet him in court if they want to resist.

[Demeter]

16. Japan signals readiness to intervene again; market jittery

http://news.yahoo.com/yen-drops-talk-intervention-no-official-confirmation-054629681.html

Japan's finance minister said he was closely watching yen moves on Friday, signaling a readiness to continue selling the currency after intervention on Thursday that likely totaled a record amount around 4.5 trillion yen ($56 billion).

Japanese authorities intervened on Thursday and the central bank eased monetary policy to reduce pressure on the export-reliant economy after the yen surged close to a record high with investors buying it as a refuge from the fiscal and economic woes in Europe and the United States...

[Demeter]

19. European stocks slump as global selloff continues

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/european-stocks-slump-as-global-selloff-continues-2011-08-05?siteid=YAHOOB

European stock markets fell heavily on Friday, extending a global selloff as the Continent’s sovereign-debt crisis and fears of a possible U.S. recession sent investors running for the exit...All sectors in Europe were trading deep in the red, with U.K. banks among the worst performers...“Equity markets are heading into the weekend break in a state of absolute panic with traders’ screens swamped by a sea of red,” said Cameron Peacock, a market analyst at IG Markets.

“There’s quite literally no support being seen in the market despite previous assertions that even with the outlook being so shaky, equities are left looking increasingly cheap,” he added in an email.

Elsewhere in the financial sector, Italian and Spanish bank stocks found some buyers after being among the hardest hit in recent days...

[Ghost Dog]

23. GLOBAL MARKETS-Economy, euro zone crisis batter stocks

LONDON, Aug 5 (Reuters) - World stocks sank for an eighth straight session of losses on Friday, with investors racked by worries about the slowing global economy and the dangerous spread of euro zone debt anguish into Italy and Spain.

There was widespread demand for policymakers to beef up plans to tackle the euro zone's crisis and prevent the U.S. economy in particular from sliding back into recession. Global equities were down 1.5 percent on the day for a roughly 8.5 percent loss this week. Emerging market shares stumbled 3.3 percent on the day...

...Positions in equities and commodities were being scrapped and a scramble for the safety of cash and top-rated government bonds was on.

"The economic outlook is stressing investors to a great degree and sentiment is likely to remain extremely fragile," said Keith Bowman, equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. "The U.S. economy has been slowing and is moving into a phase where we are going to see spending cuts enforced. Investors are concerned as to where future growth will come from with this backdrop of debt for so many governments."

/... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/08/05/markets-global-idUKL6E7J50G120110805


Bloodbath in Europe Follows Bloodbath in Asia (Mike Shedlock)

Bloodbath in Europe Follows Bloodbath in Asia; Don't Worry, It's Orderly; First Rule of Panic

/... http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/bloodbath-in-europe-follows-bloodbath.html


Sarkozy, Merkel to Discuss Crisis Today

French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel will discuss the euro region’s debt crisis today after concerns that it will spread to Italy and Spain helped trigger a global market rout.

Sarkozy will also speak with Spanish Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, according to an official at the French president’s office in Paris. Sarkozy spoke with European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet yesterday and the previous day, said the person, who cannot be identified under government policy. The official wouldn’t give details on the timing of the calls.

European leaders have failed to stamp out concerns that Italy and Spain will need bailouts even after agreeing last month to retool their 440 billion-euro ($620 billion) bailout fund. More than $4.4 trillion have been wiped out from equity- market values worldwide since July 26 as speculation mounts the world economy faces a new recession that would exacerbate Europe’s debt woes.

Italian and Spanish bonds fell yesterday even after Trichet said the ECB will start buying government debt again amid renewed tensions in bond markets. The yield on Italian and Spanish debt rose to 6.20 percent and 6.28 percent, respectively, and are close to euro-era highs.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-05/sarkozy-to-discuss-euro-market-turmoil-with-merkel-and-zapatero-today.html

Spanish stock market dips 2 per cent, but rises again

Aug 5, 2011, 8:21 GMT Madrid - The Madrid stock market's main Ibex 35 index dipped 2 per cent after trading opened Friday, amid concern over the US financial situation and growing pressure on southern European economies.

Among the biggest companies, Telefonica lost 1.16 per cent, Santander bank 1.6 per cent, BBVA bank 1.68 per cent and the energy company Iberdrola 1.77 per cent.

Within an hour the Ibex 35 rose again by 2.5 per cent.

On Thursday, Spain raised 3.3 billion euros (4.6 billion dollars) by selling three- and four-year bonds at an interest rate of 4.9 and 5.05 per cent respectively, the highest rate since 2008.

/... http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/business/news/article_1655183.php/Spanish-stock-market-dips-2-per-cent-but-rises-again


Madrid shares higher on rumours ECB to buy bonds

AFP - The IBEX-35 index was up 0.53 percent after the first hour of trade, having slumped more than 2.0 percent at the open. Dow Jones Newswires said there were rumours the ECB had asked for prices on Spanish and Italian debt, a signal that it could be about to buyEnlarge Photo

The IBEX-35 index was up 0.53 percent after the first hour of trade, having slumped …

Madrid's share market staged a dramatic recovery Friday led by banking stocks amid rumours the European Central Bank is preparing to buy hard-hit Spanish and Italian bonds.

The IBEX-35 index was up 0.53 percent after the first hour of trade, having slumped more than 2.0 percent at the open. Dow Jones Newswires said there were rumours the ECB had asked for prices on Spanish and Italian debt, a signal that it could be about to buy.

/... http://uk.news.yahoo.com/madrid-shares-higher-rumours-ecb-buy-bonds-073433862.html

[xchrom]

36. ECB offers more loans to banks and keeps rates on hold

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14400774

The European Central Bank (ECB) has said it will offer a fresh round of loans to banks in light of continuing fears about the eurozone debt crisis.

"Given the renewed tensions in some financial markets, has decided to conduct a supplementary refinancing operation," said the bank's president, Jean-Claude Trichet.

He added that economic uncertainty was "particularly high"'.

Earlier, the ECB kept eurozone interest rates on hold at 1.5%, as expected.

[Demeter]

73. Berlusconi urges Italians to hang on to bonds

Prime minister tells Italians their bonds are safe and there is no need to take fright at markets he says are divorced from economic reality

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/6NPSBB/B5W7WB/204L2/TPFMQD/2OOLOV/QR/t?a1=2011&a2=8&a3=5

WELL, WHAT DO YOU ALL THINK?

[Demeter]

20. Corn, wheat fall 1.5 pct on slowdown fears, soy at 1-month low

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL3E7J50AI20110805

[xchrom]

21. top o' the morning! happy birthday rosco!

:donut:

[Po_d Mainiac]

92. This should be a feather day 4 u. n/t

[xchrom]

106. Yay! Thank you! Nt

[Demeter]

22. US (natural) GAS: Futures Settle Below $4 For First Time In Five Months

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110804-719705.html?mod=dist_smartbrief

Natural-gas futures settled below the psychologically important $4 level for the first time since March on a decline triggered by weekly inventory data... Energy Department reported a larger-than-expected storage build, and natural gas faced pressure as other markets saw losses on concerns about global economic growth. Natural gas for September delivery settled down 14.9 cents, or 3.6%, at $3.941 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The benchmark contract reached the lowest settlement price since March 16, and fell as low as $3.915/MMBtu during the session.

Inventory data was just the latest bearish force on natural gas, as futures have declined in recent sessions on weather forecasts and weak economic data...The Energy Information Administration said U.S. natural-gas stockpiles rose by 44 billion cubic feet last week, well above the 36 bcf predicted by analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires. Though hot summer weather tends to increase demand for natural gas to generate power for air conditioning, Horwitz noted that the injection was only 3 bcf below the five-year average of 47 bcf. "It's a pretty compelling argument that there's still a lot of supply out there," he said.

High production levels have led to lower natural-gas prices in recent years. The number of rigs drilling for natural gas is at 877 as of July 29, according to Baker Hughes Inc. (BHI), and the next rig count is due Friday. Horwitz and other analysts have said the gas-rig count must decline to close to 800 to balance production with demand...At the same time, oil wells can yield natural gas, and the oil rig count has risen to 1,025.

Futures stayed lower during Thursday's session as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and crude oil were down significantly, said John Woods, a trader with JJ Woods Associates. The Dow has fallen more than 400 points during trading, and Nymex crude settled below $87. Still, Woods said he'd be surprised if natural-gas prices fell much below $3.90, and said prices could bounce higher from $3.95. "It's more of a nice buying opportunity at this point," Woods said.
Meanwhile, temperature forecasts for next week aren't giving the market much support. Relatively cooler conditions are expected in the six- to 10-day forecast for the Midwest and East, Commodity Weather Group said.

[xchrom]

24. asia: Asia joins rout

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/MH06Dk01.html

MONTREAL - The global rout of stocks that drove the Dow Industrial Average Index down 4.3% on Thursday continued into Asia on Friday, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index crashing more than 5% at one point and other leading markets dropping by similar amounts before a recovery cut losses late in the day.

Taiwan's Taiex Index fell by 5.58% and the Nikkei 225 in Tokyo dropped by 3.72%, as did Seoul's Kospi Index, much of the declines happening within minutes of the market openings. As Asian markets closed, Europe continued the trend, with the London FTSE 100 dropping 2.6% in early trading.

Behind the panic sell-off, surprising many investors who looked for a rally after resolution of the debt ceiling debate in the United States, was concern that governments are seen to have few tools


left to resolve the continuing debt crisis in Europe and to reinvigorate the sluggish US economy. Other factors, such as deleveraging by hedge funds, also played into the steep declines.

Yet while the Friday action in Asia gave the appearance of a rout, in fact it was relatively orderly in its own way: volatility on Friday and on the week was extremely highly correlated (+0.98) with percentage negative move. A certain degree of regional and even intra-regional stratification, particularly in Northeast Asia and the Greater China sub-regions, also remained in evidence.

[xchrom]

32. Asian stocks tumble after heavy sell-off on Wall Street

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14414669

Asian stock markets have slumped on Friday, extending a global equity sell-off after Wall Street had its worst day in more than two years.

Japan's main index fell 3.7%, South Korea's also lost 3.7%, Australia's dipped 4% and Hong Kong's shed 4.6%.

European markets continued the sell-off, with the UK's benchmark FTSE 100 index and Germany's Dax index both down by about 2.5% in early trade.

Analysts warned that global markets could remain volatile in coming weeks.

[xchrom]

33. Japan government and central bank intervene to cut yen

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-14398392

The Japanese government and central bank have intervened to weaken the yen to protect economic growth.

Japan sold yen on the markets, weakening the currency so that the dollar was worth more than 79 yen, up from about 77 yen before the move.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced further monetary easing in the afternoon.

These were unilateral moves by Japan, unlike an intervention in March, which was backed by the G7 group of nations.

[Demeter]

25. 30-year debt too good to refuse with US Treasuries below 4%

http://www.ifre.com/30-year-debt-too-good-to-refuse-with-us-treasuries-below-4/647562.article

A 30-year Treasury bond yield at under 4% was too good to refuse for six corporates this week, which have together issued more than US $2bn of long-dated debt, some at record low coupons.

Southwestern Public Service Co came to market on Wednesday with a US$200m 4.5% issue of 2041s, which tied for the lowest ever 30-year coupon by a corporate with Microsoft Corp, Johnson & Johnson, San Diego Gas & Electric Co and Southern Edison Electric Co. (Click here for a table of low coupon records across the curve)

Today Union Pacific Corp broke the all-time record for lowest coupon achieved by a BBB-rated issuer on a 30-year bond with its US$500m offering of 2041s that priced at 4.75%, led by Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Citigroup and JP Morgan.

Both borrowers came to market after seeing the success of issuers earlier in the week, like utility Public Service Co of Colorado, which issued US$250m of 30-year first mortgage bonds at 4.75%, making it the second lowest 30-year coupon on record...MORE

[Demeter]

26. Time to Say It: Double Dip Recession May Be Happening By FLOYD NORRIS

WHAT WAS YOUR FIRST CLUE, FLOYD?

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/05/business/economy/double-dip-recession-may-be-returning.html

...If this is the beginning of a new double dip, it will have two significant things in common with the dual recessions of 1980 and 1981-82...In each case the first recession was caused in large part by a sudden withdrawal of credit from the economy. The recovery came when credit conditions recovered.

And in each case the second recession began at a time when the usual government policies to fight economic weakness were deemed unavailable. Then, the need to fight inflation ruled out an easier monetary policy. Now, the perceived need to reduce government spending rules out a more accommodating fiscal policy.

The American economy fell into what was at first a fairly mild recession at the end of 2007. But the downturn turned into a worldwide plunge after the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008 led to the vanishing of credit for nearly all borrowers not deemed super-safe. Banks in the United States and other countries needed bailouts to survive.The unavailability of credit caused a decline in world trade volumes of a magnitude not seen since the Great Depression, and nearly every economy went into recession.

But it turned out that businesses overreacted. While sales to customers fell, they did not decline as much as production did...

[Tansy_Gold]

34. It's not a "double dip recession" at all.

What may have appeared to some as -- or what may have been created to look like -- a recovery was nothing of the sort. It was, instead, merely a slowing of the determined slide downward. It was not a plateau, because the overall indicators continued to head downward.

At the heart of any economy is labor. Without labor there really is no economy, because it is labor that takes raw materials and turns them into products that can be used. Even in a simple hunter-gatherer economy, the game on the hoof and the berries on the bushes must be turned into food by labor.

Being a middleman who does nothing but take money from one laborer and give it to another laborer while skimming a commission adds nothing to the economy. NOTHING. NOT ONE RED CENT.

The leadership whose objective -- to use Ayn Rand's preferred term -- is to destroy labor must by definition be bent on destroying the economy.

Because the leadership of this country for the past 10-30 years has worked very diligently to destroy American labor (in part by enslaving foreign labor) we can safely say that they are working to destroy the American economy. They have done nothing whatsoever to repair any of the damage they or their predecessors have done, and therefore nothing about the economy's direction can change, will change, or has changed.

The notion of a double dip is therefore a flat out lie, meant to deceive us into believing that any of the current policies have any chance of effecting a real recovery. ONLY a reversal of most of the current policies will change the downward slide.

The very first change that must be effected is to tax the rich to get their ill-gotten unearned riches (including inheritances) back into the system. UNEARNED, because if they are not producing goods and/or services that contribute to the labor-based economy -- running a hedge fund contributes absolutely nothing -- then their lucre is stolen from those who have produced.

Understand this -- anyone, any politician or commentator or discussion board warrior, who thinks taxing the rich is unfair, is NOT a democrat and should be treated as . . . . . .well, you fill in the blank.




Tansy Gold

[Demeter]

50. Ladies and Gentlemen, I Give You Tansy Gold!

[Tansy_Gold]

53. I need to post something here, because otherwise

Your grand introduction is immediately above the shark picture!

:rofl:



TG

[Demeter]

65. Oops

But how many people will notice, TG?

[Fuddnik]

79. Tansy has fins?

[JanMichael]

77. please repost this in GD

as an OP. This is one of the best posts I have read on DU in awhile.

[Tansy_Gold]

83. I appreciate the compliment, but it's safer here.

And mean safer for both me AND the post.


:hi:



TG

[DemReadingDU]

86. +++

[Dappleganger]

96. This post is so good it deserves it's own thread.

Every time you write something I learn something new! Would you please, please post this in GD?

:hi:

[Tansy_Gold]

104. You guys are embarrassing me! ;-)

But seriously, it doesn't take a rocket scientist or a Nobel laureate in economics to figure this one out. Look at the results: what kind of wealth distribution do we have? We have more money flowing to the already wealthy, but fewer productive workers. That means somehow or other, the already wealthy are pulling money/cash/equity/capital out of the economy.

They aren't hurting at all. They don't want the policies to change. They really don't care about the stock markets except as a place to play. So they drop a few million here or there -- it's no more to them than losing at poker. They'll play again tomorrow and win it back because it's just a friendly game with friends.

As elegant as the Arnold correlation may be --- as posted by TalkingDog --- it would only work if employment levels and income levels remained the same. They don't. The wealth gap now is far greater than it was in the 1960s. Industrial production is far lower than in the 1950s or even the 1940s.

Arnold shouldn't need to "adjust" for anything, if his theory of population rise/fall = stock market rise/fall. If The Pill created a subsequent decline in that particular age cohort, then it should be manifest in a decline in the markets.

What we have is a global economy that's owned by a very very few who are not trickling anything down. They like it that way, whether they are New Haven hedge fund managers, Dubai oil sheikhs, or African diamond lords. The only thing that will reduce the income and wealth disparity is higher taxes on the rich. High taxes on inherited wealth, high taxes on unearned income from investments and other gambles. That is the ONLY ONLY ONLY ONLY thing.

Period. End of discussion.



Tansy Gold

[MzShantal]

132. Wall St. is sitting on jobs and our money.

Tell Wall Street, we bailed your asses out now start creating some jobs or I'll take my money and put it in credit unions or a safety deposit box. I'll be damned if I'll let you take my house, my bailout money and savings account, invest it overseas and leave me in the streets. WTF?? That's screwing me without kissing me and I don't play that.

[Warpy]

130. Only if you're heavily into the stock market and/or commodities

is this a double dip recession. For everyone else, it's the same damned depression it's always been.

I find looking at commodities boards extremely disquieting lately. Multiple bubbles seem to be bursting as institutional investors dump their commodities to shore up the other parts of their portfolios--just like mid 2008.

[Demeter]

28. Time for a double dip?

http://www.economist.com/node/21525405

THIS ought to have been a good week for the American economy. The country’s leaders at last ended a ludicrously irresponsible bout of fiscal brinkmanship, removing the threat of global financial Armageddon by agreeing to raise the federal debt ceiling. Yet far from heaving a sigh of relief, investors are nervous. Stockmarkets around the world have tumbled (see article). On August 2nd, the day the debt deal was signed, the S&P 500 index saw its biggest one-day fall in over a year, and yields on ten-year Treasury bonds dropped to 2.6%, their lowest level in nine months, as investors sought safety.

It is not all to do with America: the euro zone is a mess (see article) and manufacturing everywhere seems to be slowing. But America’s prospects have suddenly darkened. Statistical revisions and some grim new figures have revealed a weaker-than-assumed recovery that has all but ground to a halt. Once stalled, an economy can easily tip back into recession, particularly if it is hit by a new shock—as America’s is about to be, thanks to a hefty dose of fiscal tightening made worse by the debt deal. The odds of a double dip over the coming year are uncomfortably high, perhaps as high as 50%.

America’s recovery from a balance-sheet recession was always bound to be sluggish and fragile. And its woes need not fell the world economy, thanks to the strength of emerging markets (see Economics focus). But the thoughtlessness of the debt deal—notably its failure to tackle any of the real sources of America’s fiscal problems, such as entitlement spending—raises a bigger worry. Can the country’s politicians, so starkly polarised and so willing to gamble with the economy, be trusted not to turn what was always an inevitable period of hardship into longer-term stagnation?

[Ghost Dog]

37. America's woes need not fell the world economy, thanks to the strength of emerging markets

Ah! If so be it.

[Tansy_Gold]

46. Need not, but may, if the "American" model is duplicated

Much of the decline of the American economy has been facilitated by a supra-national elite that has the ability to take wealth out of one national economy and use it to extract wealth out of other national economies, thus controlling both. As capital moves from one labor market to another -- with all recognition to the aptness of the term "labor market" -- it does not create viable economies but rather creates colonial economies where puppets may be set up for appearances, but the global elite remain in control of the wealth.

At the current point, I don't think the stock markets really represent much of anything other than a distraction and false front for the economies. As the equity/cash/capital is sucked out of the economy and used to play games on the market, a rise or fall really only signals how the players are playing. Unless and until that equity/cash/capital is removed from the market and returned to the economy, the S&P, the DJIA, etc., are like watching markers on a Monopoly board. The cash will go back into the markets -- it has nowhere else to go -- and they will rise again.



Tansy Gold

[DemReadingDU]

88. many people still correlate the economy and the stock market

But the stock market is filled with gamblers making money whether the market rises or fall.

The economy is where we live, and it has been eroding for several years.
:(

[Tansy_Gold]

105. Exactamundo!

:yourock:

[Fuddnik]

43. Investors are starting to realize that we're governed by total idiots.

On both sides.

If I had any money, I'd take it and go hide too.

[xchrom]

55. +1

[DemReadingDU]

85. here's that shark pic

I was reading thru the postings, and was wondering where it was
:)

[dpibel]

126. Real sources?

"But the thoughtlessness of the debt deal—notably its failure to tackle any of the real sources of America’s fiscal problems, such as entitlement spending—raises a bigger worry."

That statement rather makes me think ill of anything else this person might have to say.

The only "entitlement" spending that has any bearing on America's fiscal problems is Medicare/Medicaid, and that only because of Bush's pharma giveaway coupled with out-of-control medical expenses.

I do agree that the debt deal did fail to tackle any of the real sources of America's fiscal problems: Criminal conduct endemic in the financial sector, eternal spending on an imperial military, the Bush tax cuts, and, most importantly, the fact that your revenues will tank when people aren't working.

[Demeter]

30. NYSE Glitch Halts Derivatives Trading, Updates

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-04/nyse-says-fault-halted-some-derivatives-trades-equity-index-price-updates.html

NYSE Euronext (NYX) said a computer malfunction suspended derivatives trading on its Liffe market and halted price updates on its European stock indexes for almost an hour as equities plunged the most in 15 months.

Derivatives trading resumed at 6:10 p.m. in Paris and gauges in Paris, Brussels, Lisbon and Amsterdam were suspended from 4:28 p.m. to 5:20 p.m., NYSE Euronext said on its website today. Trading in individual equities was unaffected. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index tumbled 3.4 percent to 243.3, the biggest drop since May 7, 2010, amid concern the global economy is weakening.

“For the system to be down today is a total disaster,” said Lex Van Dam, a London-based fund manager at Hampstead Capital LLP, which oversees $500 million. “This is a really scary market. It’s so busy and for people not to be able to get out of their positions or hedge on today of all days is really terrible.”

:evilgrin:

[Demeter]

35. ECB Resumes Bond Buying as Trichet Offers Banks Cash to Stem Debt Crisis

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-04/trichet-signals-ecb-buying-bonds-as-it-offers-banks-cash-amid-debt-crisis.html

European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said the ECB has resumed bond purchases and will offer banks more cash to stop the region’s debt crisis from engulfing Italy and Spain and hurting the economy.

“I wouldn’t be surprised that before the end of this teleconference you would see something on the market,” Trichet told reporters in Frankfurt today after the ECB kept its benchmark interest rate at 1.5 percent. “We were not unanimous but with overwhelming majority with regards to the bond purchases.”

ECB purchases of Irish and Portuguese bonds during the press briefing haven’t stamped out investor concern on the 21- month crisis spreading to Italy and Spain, whose yields soared to euro-era highs this week. European officials are trying to put a firewall around Europe’s third and fourth-largest economies to avoid them being forced into seeking external aid.

“With the ECB not daring to touch Italy and Spain and the decision to buy Portugal and Ireland also not taken unanimously, the market looks set to question the ECB’s resolve until it sees the facts,” said Christoph Rieger, head of fixed-income strategy at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “To be fair, the decision to buy Italy and Spain should not be taken light- heartedly as it could open a bottomless pit.”

European Central Bank Buys Bonds to Reassure the Markets, to Little Avail

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/05/business/global/european-central-bank-buys-bonds-to-calm-the-markets-but-to-little-avail.html

Once again seeking to calm market tension, the European Central Bank intervened unexpectedly in bond markets on Thursday in an effort to prevent the region’s debt crisis from engulfing Italy.

The show of force initially bolstered Italian and Spanish bonds. But the move appeared to backfire as stock markets in Europe and the United States fell sharply after Jean-Claude Trichet, the central bank’s president, warned of dangers ahead, while the modest scale of the bank’s bond-buying apparently fell short of what investors considered adequate.

Compounding the tension, a top European official said that a deal reached two weeks ago to ease the debt crisis was not working and urged leaders to consider bolstering the region’s existing bailout fund.

European leaders decided last month to authorize the European Financial Stability Facility — the European Union’s bailout fund — to buy bonds in open markets, relieving the central bank of that responsibility. But it will take months before the rescue fund is able to start making purchases. In addition, European leaders did not increase the size of the fund, leaving questions about whether it would be up to the task if a country as big as Italy or Spain needed help...

Europe's Central Bank in Crisis Mode

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903454504576487560044460114.html?mod=dist_smartbrief

The European Central Bank resumed a crisis-management role on Thursday, stepping in after a four-month pause to buy government bonds in response to a debt crisis that started nearly two years ago in Greece and now threatens to engulf Spain and Italy.

Officials also said they would extend generous bank lending programs into next year and warned that economic uncertainties are "particularly high," suggesting a lengthy pause in the ECB's monetary tightening cycle after just two interest-rate increases.

Still, the ECB's commitment to expend the resources needed to shield Spain and Italy remains in doubt. The bond-buying decision was met with dissent within the ECB board, including from Germany's powerful central bank, the Bundesbank.

The bond purchases—limited to Portuguese and Irish bonds, according to traders—were largely met with indifference in financial markets. Italian and Spanish bond yields remained above 6%, a threshold many analysts think is unsustainable. The euro fell after the ECB meeting in choppy trading...

[Ghost Dog]

42. Spain, Italy recover to buck the trend

Europe midday: Spain, Italy recover to buck the trend LONDON (SHARECAST) - Benchmarks in Spain and Italy have escaped the nosedive on Friday lunchtime as economists digested the comments made from European Central Bank (ECB) president Jean Claude Trichet the day before.

One of the ‘details’ of yesterday’s press conference by Trichet that (apparently) vexed the markets the most was the impression that the purchase of Italian and Spanish debt had somehow been vetoed. However, comments made today by ECB Governing Council member Luc Coene have provided some optimism in these heavily indebted nations.

“"We already did it in the case of Greece, Portugal and Ireland, so I don't see why there would be lets say a sort of veto against that possibility,” he said in a radio interview. "I certainly think the central bank is ready to take significant measures to help the situation <…> But first countries need to take measures."

The FTSE MIB in Milan rose 66 points to 16,194, while the Ibex in Madrid jumped 81 to 8,767. However, the sell-off continued elsewhere with the Dax in Frankfurt losing 2.34%, falling 150 to 6,265. The Cac in Paris was down a lesser 0.76%, 25 points lower at 3,295.

/... http://www.sharecast.com/cgi-bin/sharecast/story.cgi?story_id=4416962

The pressure eased in late morning trading, however, on speculation that the European Central Bank was in the market buying bonds in an effort to hold back the tide and gain time for the eurozone.

The spread or difference in the rate of return on Spanish 10-year government bonds and the benchmark German bond, the strongest in the eurozone, was 417 basis points (4.17 percentage points) and 416 basis points for Italian debt in early deals.

At 11:40 SA time, the spread had narrowed sharply to 376 basis points for Spain and 385 basis points for Italy.

The yield on the Spanish 10-year bond still remained above the danger level of six percent but was down at 6.053 percent, off early highs of 6.310 percent and compared with 6.271 percent at the close Thursday.

In contrast, the German 10-year bond was at just 2.316 percent, reflecting how fearful investors have become, seeking to put their money into the safest assets available as the markets are roiled by debt and growth concerns. The French 10-year bond was meanwhile at 3.210 percent, up from 3.123 percent, with its spread to the German paper at a record 89.5 basis points.

/... http://www.iol.co.za/business/international/spanish-italian-debt-premiums-hit-record-1.1112920

[Ghost Dog]

60. German industrial orders up 1.8 pct in June

BERLIN- Government data show that German industrial orders were up 1.8 percent in June compared with the previous month -- posting an unexpected third straight month of solid growth.

The Economy Ministry said Thursday that growth in June was fueled by an above-average number of large orders from abroad for so-called investment goods such as machinery. It followed a gain of 1.5 percent in May, a figure revised downward from the initial reading of 1.8 percent.

Economists had expected orders to slip back in June...

...Germany is on course for a second consecutive year of healthy economic growth.

/... http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9OT71R00.htm

[Ghost Dog]

62. Italian Economic Growth Accelerated as Contagion Slams Bonds

Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Italy’s economic growth gained pace in the second quarter, with the recovery of Europe’s fourth- largest economy now threatened by the sovereign-debt crisis.

Italian gross domestic product rose 0.3 percent from the first quarter, when it increased 0.1 percent, Rome-based national statistics institute Istat said in a report today. That matched the median forecast of 20 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. GDP advanced 0.8 percent from a year earlier. Industrial output unexpectedly fell 0.6 percent in June from May, when it declined the same amount, Istat said in a separate report...

...Spain’s economic growth slowed in the second quarter, adding to the government’s difficulties as it struggles with soaring borrowing costs and the euro region’s highest unemployment rate. GDP expanded 0.2 percent from the first quarter, when it grew 0.3 percent, the Bank of Spain in Madrid estimated today. From a year earlier, GDP rose 0.7 percent.

Italy’s industrial output data showed a decline in consumer goods, indicating exports are driving the recovery. Production of consumer goods declined 1.1 percent in June from the previous month, led by a 2.3 percent drop in durable goods, Istat said...

/... http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-08-05/italian-economic-growth-accelerated-as-contagion-slams-bonds.html


So... Bloomberg sticks the boot in:


Italian, Spanish Economic Growth Sluggish as Crisis Threatens Recovery
By Angeline Benoit and Chiara Vasarri - Aug 5, 2011 12:07 PM GMT+0000

Italian and Spanish economic growth remained sluggish with weak domestic demand complicating efforts to convince investors the countries can expand enough to reduce debt and avoid becoming victims of Europe’s sovereign crisis.

Gross domestic product in Italy rose 0.3 percent in the second quarter from the previous three months, when it grew 0.1 percent, Rome-based national statistics institute Istat said today. Spanish GDP expanded 0.2 percent from the January-March period, when it increased 0.3 percent, the Bank of Spain estimated today. Industrial output fell in June in both countries and in Germany, separate reports showed today.

Combined with “market tensions and higher interest rates, the economy is very likely to contract” in the third quarter, Luigi Speranza, an economist at BNP Paribas in London, said in a note about Italy.

“Increased uncertainty in recent months has accentuated the downside risks for economic growth,” Spain’s central bank said in its monthly economic bulletin, released in Madrid today.

/... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-05/spanish-economic-growth-slows-on-euro-debt-crisis-stress-1-.html

[Demeter]

71. Barroso calls for bigger rescue fund

Germany expresses frustration after European Commission president claims fund created just two weeks ago cannot contain crisis in Spain and Italy

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/6NPSBB/B5W7WB/204L2/TPFMQD/U11JU3/QR/t?a1=2011&a2=8&a3=5

[Demeter]

72. Spain and Italy pose conundrum for IMF

The International Monetary Fund, the eurozone authorities’ partner in its rescue missions so far, is wondering whether getting more deeply involved will risk its cash and its credibility

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/6NPSBB/B5W7WB/204L2/TPFMQD/300T06/QR/t?a1=2011&a2=8&a3=5

[Ghost Dog]

129. August 5 2011: Europe throws in the towel (Automatic Earth)

The reason why, apart from the fact that there is no European facility endowed with sufficient financial or political means to save those two, is certainly also plainly in the sheer size of the debt and the risks that come with it. "Italy is the third-biggest bond market in the world..” Also, as per Charles Forelle in the Wall Street Journal, "its economy is 50% larger and its debt volume two-and-a-half times as big as Spain's". And "just this month, Italy must repay €36 billion in government debt. That is roughly what Greece will redeem this entire year." As well as: "The IMF estimates that Italy's gross financing needs—the amount of money it must borrow to repay maturing debt and cover deficits—will run between €340 billion and €380 billion annually over the next five years.

A chunk of that is short-term debt that Italy would likely still be able to roll over—Greece continues to sell short-term debt despite its bailout—but medium and long-term debt redemptions next year alone are around €200 billion. Italy's budget deficit will be around €50 billion."...

...It's like Paul Krugman or Robert Reich in the US: economists are people who cling to faith-based arguments, who in this case believe that if Europe or America would spend all of their children's money into a black hole of debt, those children would greatly benefit. It's all just conjecture, conveniently omitting facts like a few hundred trillion dollars in debt here and there. "If only we would spend, then we would certainly grow!". No, there is no such certainty.

What is certain is that the Economist list of European politicians in election trouble, José Sócrates, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and George Papandreou, will grow rapidly, and increasingly so. This would lead to additional problems in solving issues: whichever "leader" you talk to in a given country, may be gone tomorrow. Argentina in its early 2000's crisis had 5 different presidents in 2 months, or something along those lines.

That is the sort of volatility we will see come to Europe, in particular the Mediterranean, going forward. It'll be chaotic, volatile, and it will lead to a lot of societal unrest. But none of it will make the financial problems go away.

/... http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/2011/08/august-5-2011-europe-throws-in-towel.html

[Demeter]

39. BANKERS BLINK! Most Greek banks to take part in bond swap deal

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/08/03/uk-greece-banks-idUKTRE77256C20110803

Most Greek banks will take part in a deal to help reduce Greece's debt burden, Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos said on Wednesday, adding that there was still a question regarding two state-controlled lenders.

"All (Greek) banks will enter the PSI (private sector involvement plan), with a pending issue in relation to two state banks - ATEbank and Hellenic Postbank," Evangelos Venizelos said, adding that state support rules might be an obstacle to their participation.

Bank lobby IIF says four options would be offered to creditors -- three bond exchange offers and one offer of a rollover into debt with maturities of up to 30 years -- alongside a scheme to buy back Greek government bonds.

[Pale Blue Dot]

41. Must be why European stocks are suddenly in the green. nt

[Fuddnik]

51. I just took a look at the Asian markets.

Never saw so much red!

[Demeter]

54. World Bank Tribunal Dismisses Brandes Case Against Venezuela

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-03/world-bank-tribunal-dismisses-brandes-case-against-venezuela.html

An international arbitration panel dismissed a claim by Brandes Investment Partners against Venezuela seeking damages for the forced sale of its stock in the nationalization of the country’s phone company, state-oil company Petroleos de Venezuela SA said today in a statement.

A panel at the World Bank’s International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes agreed with Venezuela that it lacked jurisdiction to resolve the dispute, putting an end to a case filed in 2008, according to the statement.

“The decision once again shows that the country’s defense in international proceedings is always grounded in solid legal fundamentals,” PDVSA said.

Brandes Investment Partners, a San Diego, California-based investment advisory firm, argued that the forced sale of its minority stake in Cia Anonima Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela for $225.5 million resulted in a loss...Venezuela faces 17 pending arbitration cases at ICSID including disputes with Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), ConocoPhillips and Cemex SAB for nationalized assets.

VIVA CHAVEZ!

[Demeter]

56. Race for oil heats up territorial disputes in the South China Sea

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/terrorism-security/2011/0803/Race-for-oil-heats-up-territorial-disputes-in-the-South-China-Sea

Rapidly expanding oil exploration looks likely to escalate territorial disputes in the South China Sea, which is suspected of containing vast oil and natural gas resources.

A Philippine company, Philex Mining Corp., announced Tuesday that it plans to drill at least two wells and expand its surveys in Reed Bank, one of the most contested areas of the South China Sea, the Wall Street Journal reports.

China claims the sea in its entirety and several other countries in the region, including the Philippines, Vietnam, and Taiwan, claim parts of it...

[Demeter]

58. Brazilian Capital Controls Are ‘Appropriate’ Tool, IMF Says

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-03/brazilian-capital-controls-are-appropriate-tool-imf-says.html

Brazil’s use of capital controls is an “appropriate” tool to manage foreign investment inflows though the government needs to monitor distortions generated by their use, the International Monetary Fund said.

Latin America’s largest economy’s outlook is “favorable” while showing signs of “overheating,” the IMF’s executive board said in a statement today following the conclusion of its periodic review of the country’s finances. The government should consider cutting spending further as a way to slow inflation, reduce the need for higher interest rates and curb inflows.

President Dilma Rousseff’s government has blamed the U.S. for sparking a global “currency war” by keeping interest rates near zero, precipitating a flood of investment into emerging markets that’s causing currencies to rally. Last week, Brazil slapped a 1 percent tax on bets against the U.S. dollar in the futures market after the real reached a 12-year high.

The IMF, while not commenting on any specific policy, said authorities’ use of “capital flow management measures has been appropriate.”

IT MUST BE THE APOCALYPSE

[Demeter]

61. Don't Worry, It's Orderly: Stock Plunge Erasing $780 Billion Seen as ‘Orderly’ as Brokers Keep Bids

Please remember the first rule of panic: If you are going to panic, do so before everyone else does.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-05/stock-plunge-erasing-780-billion-seen-as-orderly-as-brokers-keep-bids.html

The rout that erased about $780 billion from U.S. share values yesterday reflected orderly selling by institutional investors, unlike the crash of May 2010, traders said.

I FEEL SO MUCH BETTER NOW

[Demeter]

67. ‘Crisis is over’ as AIG posts profit

The insurer that almost failed in the 2008 crisis could now withstand a severe downturn, its chief executive said after a market sell-off that presents a variety of challenges

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/M2ZOXX/7A72AE/6ADGM/NSECXE/7AA82L/7V/t?a1=2011&a2=8&a3=5

BE CAREFUL WHAT YOU WISH FOR...

[Demeter]

68. Lloyds shares sink to half bail-out price

Analysts blame much of the decline for the UK lender, which posted a £3.25bn pre-tax loss, on wider nervousness about the European economy

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/M2ZOXX/7A72AE/6ADGM/NSECXE/GDD7XC/7V/t?a1=2011&a2=8&a3=5

I WONDER IF THEY THOUGHT TO INSURE THEMSELVES...

[Demeter]

69. New York challenges $8.5bn mortgage settlement

New York’s attorney-general has moved to block an $8.5bn settlement between Bank of America and investors in mortgage securities

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/M2ZOXX/7A72AE/6ADGM/NSECXE/XHHNTE/7V/t?a1=2011&a2=8&a3=5

[Demeter]

70. Veolia to halve its global presence

World’s biggest listed water utility confirms it is quitting almost half of the 77 countries where it does business after problems in US, Italy and north Africa

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/M2ZOXX/7A72AE/6ADGM/NSECXE/EXXAXN/7V/t?a1=2011&a2=8&a3=5

[Demeter]

74. Texas declares new ‘energy emergency’

Soaring temperatures stretch power supplies and push wholesale prices to the legal cap of $3,000 per megawatt-hour

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/6NPSBB/B5W7WB/204L2/TPFMQD/977O77/QR/t?a1=2011&a2=8&a3=5

[Fuddnik]

80. They can just pray it away tomorrow at Rick Perry's Bible Thump-A-Thon.

In that empty stadium.

[w8liftinglady]

82. Seriously...I hope god/goddess won't hold that against us...

[Fuddnik]

117. I think the Supreme Beings-That-Be have a sense of humor.

[Demeter]

75. Gillian Tett: Eurozone and the Lehman parallel

----------


It is not just the summer temperatures that have historical echoes; viewed from New York, the manner in which this eurozone story is playing out feels unnervingly similar to the pattern behind the American financial turmoil of late 2008

Read more >>
http://link.ft.com/r/KC2844/2O0GXY/WH2F8/9ZVNXQ/QNNI55/36/t?a1=2011&a2=8&a3=4

[Demeter]

76. Got to Dash--See you all tonight

KMFX

[Tansy_Gold]

87. GMFX for you, too, Demeter

Not sure what for, but for you, anything!


:thumbsup:

[florida08]

89. early gains lost

weakness across the board

[florida08]

95. Ireland Not Insulated, ECB Might Buy More Of Its Bonds-Minister

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110805-707385.html

[Pale Blue Dot]

90. 10am - The Euphoria's already over.

Into the red we go!

[Fuddnik]

113. It must have been quick.

I went out to do some yard work before it got to hot. Came back in, and we're down over 200 pts again.

[happyslug]

93. Tansy Gold ask me to repost my thread on how the Great Depression occurred here

I re-read my post and it needed re-written for I wrote it off the top of my head, so here is the post RE-WRITTEN, hopefully to be more informative:


Before one can understand the Great Depression, one must understand the Boom of the 1920s. First the Boom of the 1920s was caused by two things, first was the end of WWI and the subsequent recession (1920-1921 in the US). The US exited that Recession by 1922 and entered into the boom of the 1920s, the rest of the World never really ever exited the recession of 1920-1921. In Britain (and much of the rest of the World) this was caused by the British drive to return the Pound to its pre-WWI Gold Standard (Achieved by the late 1920s, then had to be abandoned do to the Great Depression), in Germany the effect of the recession lingered do to the effect of the German Revolution of 1919 (Where Germany almost turned Communist) and the need to pay off the War Reparations (Which lead to the Hyper Inflation of the mid 1920s for Germany and the subsequent negotiations of that debt so that it could be paid later, in fact payment on those debts were NOT re-started till 1992 when Germany became reunited).

Do to how the US entered WWI, the US had the least debt of all the major Combatants AND was owned the most money by the rest of the Allies (The US Never signed the Versailles treaty so no Reparations from Germany was ever entered in favor of the US, but the US became the Major source of loans to Germany, so the German Government could operate AND start to pay off the Reparations). Thus Wall Street boomed in the 1920s do to all this cash coming in from overseas, Cash that also attracted other investors seeing that Europe was dead as far as investors were concerned, but such investors could make a killing on Wall Street. This is the basic concept that Cash will follow Cash.

The Second part of the Boom was the almost universal boycott of Soviet Russia. Russian, before WWI had been a major source of Grain for Europe. With that boycott, the price of grain went up and rural areas boomed in the 1920s. This also increased the money coming into the US AND thus under the control of Wall Street.

By the mid 1920s, Lenin was dead and Stalin had won the great fight over who was to lead the Soviet Union. Stalin's plan was simple, export Grain to pay for the machinery he needed to import for his industrialization plans for the Soviet Union. This new source of Grain for Europe lead to a drop in the price of Wheat and thus a drop in money going to Rural America. This was clear by 1927, which is about the time the dust bowl started. This ended up as a double whammy against rural America, causing the Great Depression to hit Rural America first and harder then the rest of the Nation.

William Jennings Bryan had died in 1926, and with his death the Progressive wing of the Democratic Party lacked leadership. Bryan had contained the KKK in the 1924 Democratic Convention to make sure no debackle would occur in that year (Bryan viewed the KKK of the 1920s as a Right Wing radicals, that could NOT last very long for they had no view for the future, running on slogans not actual polices, just like the Tea Party og today. Bryan refused to leave the Right wing of the Democratic Party to use the KKK to take over the Democratic Party, running over 100 ballots in the 1924 Convention BEFORE a Candidate for President was selected. Bryan fought this fight to make sure the Nominee was as progressive as could be arranged in 1924, and to make sure the Candidate would STAY progressive made his younger brother to be named as the VP. Thus if the Candidate did win in 1924, the VP, the only person in the Executive branch that can NOT be fired, would be in the cabinet to keep the President as the progressive as possible. Please note the Democratic party did LOSE in 1924).

By 1928, Bryan was dead and the Progessive wing of the Party had no leader. Rural farmers were in trouble, these had been the back bone of the Progressive wing of the Democratic party since the 1896 election. Such rural farmers needed help and it was clear something had to be done to help them. Wall Street did NOT want such help to go to the Farmers, so they used their money and power to make sure the Democratic Party would pick a Wet (i.e. wanted to repeal Prohibition), Tammy Hall (and thus carrying the IMAGE of corruption, even through everyone said Al Smith, the Democratic Candidate in 1928, was NOT) Wall street ally (Which is what Wall Street wanted in BOTH parties). The fact that Al Smith was Catholic was also used against him, but Smith's main problem was he was an ally of Wall Street AND offered no real assistance to the rural small farmers, so the progressives sat out the election (along with the "Dry" Democrats, i.e. supporters of Prohibition) so that Hoover (the GOP nominee and winner in 1928) would win in a landslide.

Had the Democrats run a Progressive Candidate in 1928 (even a "Dry" Candidate Byran's brother lived till 1945), such a candidate had a chance of winning. The Rural population needed help and the Democrats were stronger in Rural America in 1928 then in Urban America in 1928 (Democrats would NOT become the Dominate Inner City Party till after 1932 and the Results of the Great Depression, and Rural America would NOT become overwhelmingly GOP till after WWII, when do to mechanization of Agriculture many working class people had to move from Rural American to Urban America to look for and find work).
Thus a call for assistance, and a clear plan of such assistance, to the farmers could have turned the tide in favor of the Democrats in 1928 (Please note in the 1930 election the Democrats won big in that first election after it was clear the depression was hitting both rural and urban america).

Thus by 1928, Rural America was ready for a change, but the Democrats refused to give them a nominee they could vote for (and worse a pro wall Street Nominee, Al Smith's big source of revenue in the 1930s would be his attacks on FDR and the New Deal, Wall Street on the 1930s paid to hear any attack on FDR and the New Deal and Al Smith obliged).

Now, the Stock Market also peaked in the Summer of 1929, and started its slow decline before the "Crash" in October of 1929. After the "Crash" the Stock market RECOVERED till about March 1, 1930, when the Stock market almost match were in had been just before the "Crash". The problem was starting on March 1, 1930 the Stock market went into a slow decline that did NOT stop til March 1934. That slow decline was what really set the depression off, NOT the Crash. In the months between the Election in November 1932 and the Inauguration of FDR on March 4, 1933, every bank in the US closed do to a lack of funds and runs on those banks. The New Deal was to address those problems AND the problem of Rural America and its rapid decline in grain prices since 1927, the Dust Bowl, and the rapid decline in industry since March 1, 1930. and the huge lack of ANY banks to borrow money from OR deposit money into by March 1934.

Thus by the time of the New Deal, you have had rural problem for six years, urban problems for three years AND a bank problem for six months. Where are we in that line? I suspect we are in the same situation Rural America was in about 1927-1934 (please note this depression did NOT start in Rural America, since WWII, Rural America is NOT that great a part of the US Economy it had been in the 1920s, thus this depression started with high gasoline prices NOT problems in Rural America). I also think we are about to enter the second phase, that of what happen to the rest of the Country when the Country decided to protect Wall Street instead of Main Street (The cause of the Spread of the Great Depression 1930-1932). I see the same things happening, when pressure on the economy is hurting the country, no one complains, but when it hits Wall Street (As it did in 2008 and the Bailout) Congress comes up with the money to bail out Wall Street.

This Depression did not start in Rural American like the Great Depression, but started when industrial America could no longer get cheap gasoline. That took time to occur for except for the price gouge in 2008, the price of gasoline did a slow but steady raise from 2000 till 2008. This increase in price hurt workers driving to and from work and thus hurt those workers ability to pay for gasoline AND other items. This is want started the Great Depression, Rural Farmers had been the main market for Automobiles in the 1920s (Beating out Upper Middle Class people, Urban Working class people took public transportation or walked to work in the 1920s and 1930s). With that market gone, the car industry AND industrial America lost a major buyer of their goods. With that market gone, the rest of the Country could NOT make it up and the whole house of cards collapsed.

Today, I see a similar situation, but this time it is being lead by Working class people living in urban American. Such working class people saw a decline in real income since the 1970s but made up for that lost with debt. When the price of Gasoline went up, something had to give, and that was buying new things for the home. This lead to a decline in buying and with it a decline economic activity. No one complained of this from 2000 till 2008, buy when the price of gasoline was finally forcing some people to quit work (Work would no longer pay for the gasoline to get to work and back home) this recession hit. From those working class people working in suburbia it spread to others, just like the drop in grain prices from 1926 onward lead to a drop in economic activities in the late 1920s. Finally it hit a wall, and the decline started (The Decline from March 1930 NOT the Crash, the Crash is over rated as the cause of the Great Depression). Thus the great oil price grab of 2008 is like the Crash of 1929, more symbolic then real. The real problem is the subsequent lack of economic activity by working class people. Thus we are in that second stage, between the Crash and the real decline. I suspect our economic leaders know this, and doing all they can to prevent a decline, but doing so to help Wall Street, not Main Street. The better solution is to close them all down, as FDR did to the Banks in 1933, so the system can bottom out. This is what our leaders are NOT willing to do and why this depression will last a long time.

everything else will go to the dogs before the banks starts to go under in large numbers.

[DemReadingDU]

98. Interesting analysis, thanks for posting

Agree that a decline is trying to be prevented. But the decline cannot be stopped. Eventually, a tipping point will be reached, and not only will the U.S. be in a long depression, so will the rest of the world.

[happyslug]

100. I agreed, that what happened in 1930, the tipping point had been reach and decline set in

I suspect the system reached it peak in 2008 (Just like the 1920s reached its peak in 1927). From 1927 till 1930 the system stayed close to it peak, but did NOT resume any climb, and the declines were minor, the economy had hit a peak. The problem with a peak is you have to up or down, and up was no longer possible after 1927 (and 2008). No one wanted the economy to go down, but it could no longer climb. By March 1930 the pressure to go down could no longer be contained and the economy tanked. The issue is when is when will this economy go into its tank? I suspect from this point forward, the crisis over increasing the debt ceiling was one last effort to get this economy going (and to cover up the fact it is in decline) more then anything else.

[florida08]

109. no expert on the great depression

except there was nothing 'great' about it. Should have been called the Wall Street depression as pretty much the same market speculation was going on with borrowed money. Seems like we're in the next phase of Roosevelt's
economy.

Austerity
http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Roosevelt_Recession

New Deal critics often like to gloss over FDR's policy reversal in 1937 to paint the New Deal as a failure in its entirety. The Roosevelt Recession was a setback and without it, it's entirely plausible that the US would have been out of the Depression entirely before World War II. The US actually took longer to get out of the Depression than most other nations. Sweden, for example, ran a very hardcore stimulative policy and was back to pre-crash levels by the early '30s. The fact is, 100% of the time during the Great Depression, the economy was improving when FDR ran deficits and faltering when he practiced fiscal conservatism.

Do you think this is accurate?

[Hawkowl]

114. The debt ceiling debacle is the trigger

I really like your analysis. I think the debt ceiling debacle is the crisis that triggers the decline, the Great Depression of the 21st century. We may clean it up with a change in policies, but it is now too late to avoid the decline. Policy changes will only help us dig out after a long decline. There is a typical lag in fiscal policy of 12-18 months and there is only bad policy on the horizon. There is no market "self correction" that is going to happen. America is about to become unrecognizable to living memory.

[Tansy_Gold]

107. Yes! Thank you so much!

I really like this analysis, and I'm going to go back and re-read both to get a clearer appreciation. Excellent, excellent.

:yourock:



Tansy Gold, who is gonna have to make a "rock" icon to go with the "ITYS" one.. . . . .

[renate]

108. ... wow...

:wow:

Thank you so much for what must have been an incredible amount of work!

How do you know and remember all that stuff?

[Fuddnik]

121. I've said it, and written about it before.

Like the '20s KKK, todays tea baggers, and almost ALL of our ruling elite, except for the foreign policy (empire) wing, they all lack any vision for the future.

Where would our national highway system be today, if Eisenhower had just announced he was going to build a highway from Washington to Baltimore, and Chicago to Detroit, and NY to Philly? It likely would have died in it's cradle, just like Obama's high speed rail project. He let tea-bagger governors kill it. Now, if he had said, this is what it's going to look like in 20-30 years, we're building it at the federal level, and that's that, we'd have another million jobs or so right now, and the future would be on it's way.

We need a clean sweep in Washington and the state legislatures. There's too many backwards looking people in government. As for Wall Street? I've heard Gitmo is lovely this time of year.

Oct. 6th 2011. Clear your calendars.

[Tansy_Gold]

127. Exactly, Fudd. And Ike was able to do it because the rich

were paying substantial taxes.

Until the bagger public admits that taxing unearned income is the ONLY way out of this, nothing will change.


Either the left gets its pathetic act together, or the baggers will put Ming the Merciless on the imperial throne.


TG

[Demeter]

122. +1000

Good summary of how it's all inter-connected.

[Roland99]

102. So much for the comback rally kid. DJIA -100.

[Po_d Mainiac]

124. The e/s took a dip below 1170

I'm looking for a few bounces between there and 1225

[Roland99]

103. 11:25a - Obama wants to extend payroll tax credit

no further details.

[nc4bo]

111. I just don't get it.

Not one damn bit.

[Tansy_Gold]

112. You're not supposed to get it

Only them that already gots gets. You're not supposed to get ANYTHING.


:-(


TG

[nc4bo]

115. Know what Tansy

I'm so done with ALL this. Naive? Stupid? Or it's panning out exactly as planned.

No one can be that naive.

No one can be this stupid.

So - that just leaves; it's all going as planned.

[Tansy_Gold]

128. Exactly.

Remember how Atlas Shrugged ends? It ends with the destruction of the US of A. That's what "they" are aiming for, and that's what they will get.

We will get left at the end of the line in the middle of the Arizona desert.



TG

[florida08]

116. ECB

Ready to buy Spanish and Italiam bonds


Update: With fast tracking austerity measures

[florida08]

118. US Finance Sector Loses Jobs In July, Expected To Shed More

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110805-712904.html

[florida08]

125. Bureau Of Labor Statistics Website Crashes

http://www.kitv.com/r/28776819/detail.html

[hamerfan]

133. Is this where I sign up for the pony?

What? WHAT?
hamerfan

[Tansy_Gold]

134. You know better than that.

You only get horseshit here, not ponies.

Silly rabbit.



TG