Unemployment rate dips, economy adds 117K jobs

[Freddie Stubbs]

Source: Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Hiring picked up slightly in July and the unemployment rate dipped to 9.1 percent, an optimistic sign after the worst day on Wall Street in nearly three years.

Employers added 117,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said Friday. That's better than the past two months, which were also revised higher.

The mild improvement may ease investors' concerns after the Dow Jones industrial average plummeted more than 500 points over concerns that the U.S. may be entering another recession.

Still, the economy needs twice as many net jobs per month to rapidly reduce unemployment. The rate has topped 9 percent in every month except two since the recession officially ended in June 2009.

Read more: http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_ECONOMY?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-08-05-08-32-00

[jpak]

1. Hello 1929

not

[FedUp_Queer]

21. The dirtly little secret

is that the drop in the unemployment rate had more to do with people dropping out of the job market...because they have given up looking.

[Le Taz Hot]

2. The economy needs 125,000 jobs per month

in order to keep up with population growth so it's actually a net loss.

[bhikkhu]

18. ...good news nevertheless

You could also say that under bush we had 8 years of zero net job creation, so unless we have 250k new jobs created per month for 8 years, then we're still stuck in the same hole. Or you could say that to get to full employment within a reasonable period of time, we should have more like 500k jobs created per month for 5 years before claiming any sort of credit.

...at some point, many people would admit that the disconnect between the size of the population and the size of the economy is a hurdle too high - given climate issues and energy and resource constraints there is no likely solution, so one may simply accept positive numbers as "good".

[Roland99]

19. it's actually 150,000 - 160,000 per month (as of a few years ago)

if the unemployment rate dipped, it means people aren't being counted for anymore or have left the field of people looking for work.

What's the LFPR now?

[jschurchin]

3. And exactly why did the unemployment rate go down?

Oh yeah, 200,000 people gave up looking for work. I guess if the 14,000,000 unemployed Americans give up looking for work the unemployment rate will go to zero and everything will be OK, huh?

[Jim_Shorts]

8. Must be that new political math

What gets me is how the government can spout 9% over and over when real (real as in real) unemployment is 18-20 percent - anyone who says 9% on a news program should be slapped.

Good time for austerity, and up is down, war is peace ect ect..

[bhikkhu]

20. Its calculated differently

You can always look at the "Employed" under the "Civilian Labor Force" heading here: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm for the raw numbers.

[Jim_Shorts]

24. I know its calculated differently, it's calculated wrong

I trust these Numbers more : http://www.valueline.com/Markets/Commentary.aspx?id=10133

From a January publication : For example, the official rate counts only those not working who have seriously tried to find a job in the last four weeks. That rate, the aforementioned 9.4%, does not include those working temporary jobs, who are doing so only because they cannot find permanent employment. The official rate also precludes those working part-time jobs who would want full-time work, if it were available. Finally, this so-called official rate does not count those who are no longer looking for work as they sense that there are no opportunities out there for them. When those several categories are added to the official 9.4% rate, the cumulative total is probably closer to 18%--or just under one in five Americans who want full time, permanent employment, who are unable to secure such work, at present.

[bhikkhu]

35. Its one number among many possible numbers

...its not that one is wrong and one is right, just as long as they are used consistently and the underlying data is honest. I figure the most "honest" number is total employed, which is holding steady around 139 million.

[doc03]

4. There you go, the big boys made money shorting stocks over

the debt ceiling BS either way. If we would have defaulted they would have made billions. But damn, they settled up so the gurus talked the market down over the last several days and settled for a smaller windfall. In the meantime small investors bailed out and took their loses. There was a better jobs report than they anticipated so now the big boys make money on the rally. Americans are fleeced again by Wall Street. It's time to go back to jacking up the oil prices I suppose. Internet trading has brought the cost of trading down to nearly zero and encouraged this kind of BS. There could be a $20 tax on all trades and they would still be far cheaper than a few years ago. I would bet they could balance the budget on that tax alone.

[Lucky Luciano]

5. Very naive. nt

[doc03]

6. Were am I wrong?

[Lucky Luciano]

10. Big boys would have lost their heads in a default.

No bankster wants a recession. I can assure you of that.

[doc03]

11. They did pretty well in 2009 at the taxpayers expense. n/t

[AndyTiedye]

28. They Do if they Loaded up on Credit Default Swaps

[Lucky Luciano]

29. Won't help if counterparties default - which would happen. nt

[OHdem10]

7. The States are laying off Public Workers which holds the

Jobs Numbers down.

The States cut cut cut equals layoffs.

The GOP wants to cut cut cut Federal Workers.

More canceling out the gains of Private Sector.

GOP cannot resist being Hooverites.

Third Way and DLC Democrats go Me Too---The Government
does not create jobs. We want to be like Herbert Hoover
and the Republicans---Oh, that horrible FDR.

Let me tell them both GOP, Third Way and DLC.
FDR saved Capitalism and saved Democracy.

Good Luck in digging the hole deeper, Conservadems.

[DCBob]

9. US markets up 1% at the moment..

gloom and doomers must be upset again predicting an imminent depression.

[stockholmer]

14. not anymore, the Dow has now gone big negative, its now down 300 plus points from its 1030 AM high

[DCBob]

32. its back up..

still no sign of an imminent depression.

[RBInMaine]

12. AP is corporate SHIT. "Picked up slightly." Try 99,000 from last month's you dickwads.

[sudopod]

13. My my, someone has a potty mouth this morning. nt

[RBInMaine]

16. If you're not used to that on this board then you'd better find another.

[stockholmer]

23. it actually went up 71,000, not 99,000, due to upward revision of June numbers plus

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm


BLS non-farm private non-seasonally adjusted payrolls actually FELL 4,000 in July.
http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=11647



"The drop in the unemployment rate was driven not by more Americans finding jobs, but by thousands of people dropping out of the labor force, apparently giving up even looking for work. The proportion of the population working actually fell to 58.1 percent, its lowest level since the early 1980s."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/employers-hire-117000-in-july-jobless-rate-slips-to-91percent/2011/08/05/gIQATuQDwI_story.html

[NickB79]

15. Until it's revised downward next month when no one is paying attention

That's the usual practice, it seems.

[RBInMaine]

17. The last two months were just revised UPward.

[Yo_Mama]

22. Can't spin this no more!

This graph is generated from BLS' own website. Full time jobs, time series:


Yes, folks, we have fewer full time jobs than we did a decade ago. And the trend ain't up.

[Broderick]

27. Interesting Graph

Thanks. not at all good.....

[ClarkUSA]

25. A financial analyst in the source believes these numbers "are a long way from recession territory."

~ Ian Shepherdson, an economist at High Frequency Economics, said this "in a note to clients."

[jeff47]

31. By all means, let's listen to the people that destroyed the world economy.

Clearly they offer great advice.

The only good thing about this jobs report is it wasn't as awful as expected. Merely "bad".

[ClarkUSA]

26. A chief economist says the report "should lessen fears that the recovery is truly faltering"

The report "should lessen fears that the recovery is truly faltering," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief economist at MF Global.

[murphyj87]

30. Comparison between the US and Canada

-------------Unemployment rate for January--Job Creation per capita ratio since Jan 1 (CAN:US)
Canada---------------7.80-------------------------17.491 : 1
United States---------9.00

-------------Unemployment rate for February
Canada---------------7.80--------------------------8.987 : 1
United States---------8.90

-------------Unemployment rate for March
Canada---------------7.70--------------------------6.480 : 1
United States---------8.90

-------------Unemployment rate for April
Canada---------------7.60--------------------------5.064 : 1
United States---------9.00

-------------Unemployment rate for May
Canada---------------7.40--------------------------5.288 : 1
United States---------9.10

-------------Unemployment rate for June
Canada---------------7.40--------------------------4.953 : 1
United States---------9.20

-------------Unemployment rate for July
Canada---------------7.20--------------------------4.634 : 1
United States---------9.10

[indurancevile]

33. the only reason the ue rate dipped was that a lower percent of the population was

counted in the workforce.

[fujiyama]

34. Doesn't employment often lag other indicators?

While these numbers could have been much worse, I don't feel like we've seen the worst of it (the crisis in Europe is about to get even worse).

We're barely treading water, and a small thing could push us under. The austerity measures are unlikely to help either. I'd be interested in seeing the manufacturing numbers. It's actually been one of the brighter spots over the last few months. We know the housing market numbers are still bad (which means construction jobs are unlikely to be improving).

So, it looks like the private sector added 154,000 jobs but 37,000 government jobs were lost. Of those 23,000 or so were state jobs and a majority of those were due to the MN state shutdown.

I still think a double dip is more likely than not. The only ones really recovering from this crisis are the Chinese. They're gobbling up assets left and right. We may have restrictions in this country to prevent defense related companies from being sold, but Europe is desperate for cash and the Chinese may buy up a lot of that dept.