Hurricane Irene intensifies, on track to become Category 3 storm

[ixion]

Source: LA Times

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/.a/6a00d8341c630a53ef015434bc2115970c-800wi

Hurricane Irene refuses to let anything stand in its way, sidestepping Hispaniola -- which could have disrupted its wrath considerably -- and picking up speed. Listed as a Category 1 hurricane around midday Monday, the storm was on track to become a Category 3 hurricane with winds of up to 115 miles per hour.

It's poised to slam into Florida by Thursday and then drive up the East Coast by the weekend, hitting Georgia and the Carolinas along the way.

"It is at the very least threatening the southeastern U.S. coastline, and has the potential to be a major hurricane in the next 48 to 72 hours," Dennis Feltgen, a spokesman for the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said in an interview with The Times.

Until then, hurricane conditions are expected over northern parts of the Dominican Republic on Monday night, and expected to reach parts of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands by Tuesday.

Read more: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/nationnow/2011/08/hurricane-irene-turning-into-a-large-cyclone.html

---

For my part, I'm gonna batten down the hatches.... stay safe FL and Caribbean DU'ers.

[Uncle Joe]

1. Headsup, East Coast!

Thanks for the thread, ixion.

[onehandle]

2. But the path is still sliding to the East. Prepare all along the coast, but I think the Carolinas...

...coastal, have the most to worry about.

[ixion]

5. perhaps, but it's anybody's guess

It's already thwarted earlier forecasts and avoided Hispaniola, so it's hard to say where it's going to go.

[Hosnon]

3. Eep. Hopefully it just dumps a whole bunch of rain on us with no damage. nt.

[Ruby the Liberal]

4. I have an acquaintance in the Turks and Caicos on vacation this week.

Supposed to hit them tomorrow.

[ixion]

6. I love Turks and Caicos...

Hope they ride it out okay!

[Ruby the Liberal]

9. I have never been

I've been all over the Caribbean, but for whatever reason, T&C never made the short list.

Seeing the pics she has been sending the last few days, it is now at the top of the short list!

[xchrom]

7. Recommend

[Nothing Without Hope]

8. Keep track of Irene's developments at Jeff Masters' blog:

Dr. Jeff Masters and his colleagues give the best and clearest and updates on current and upcoming tropical storms frequently. Here's the blog:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

Here's part of the most recent entry -- 9:12 Greenwich Mean Time -- on Irene's future development and path:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1891
(snip)

Track forecast for Irene

The models agree that the center of Irene will stay north of Hispaniola, which will allow the storm to continue to organize. The question that remains is how the trough of low pressure, which is expected to move across the Eastern U.S. on Wednesday and Thursday, will affect Hurricane Irene. The timing and strength of this trough, as well as the intensity of the hurricane, will determine just how quick Irene will turn away from the U.S. coast, if at all. This afternoon, the GFDL has finally started to inch its forecast track to the east, with a landfall in southern Florida. Both the HWRF and the UKMET models are suggesting a landfall in South Carolina, and the ECMWF and the GFS are forecasting a brush with the Outer Banks of North Carolina. The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center is a track north of Hispaniola over the next 24 hours, and through the Bahamas Wednesday and Thursday. While the center of the Hurricane Center's cone of uncertainty has Irene making landfall near the North Carolina/South Carolina border, it's important to note that the error in 4 and 5 day track forecasts remains high—around 200 miles in either direction. The official track has nudged a bit east since this morning, which reduces the threat to southern Florida, but increases the threat to the Carolinas.

Intensity forecast for Irene

The environment around Hurricane Irene remains moist, and wind shear is expected to remain relatively low (5 to 15 knots) along its forecast path over the next 5 days. Sea surface temperatures are certainly warm enough (29-30°C) to support intensification to a major hurricane (category 3+). Irene is still disorganized on its south side due to land interaction and dry air, but recent satellite imagery suggests increasing outflow at high levels to the south of the center, which is necessary for the hurricane to intensify. Both the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting Irene to develop into a very large and intense hurricane. The National Hurricane Center expects Irene to intensify to a category 2 hurricane tomorrow evening as it moves away from Hispaniola. Beyond that, Irene will most likely intensify into a category 3 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds around 110 mph. Like Jeff said this morning, however, Irene could just as easily remain a category 2, or even reach category 4 wind speeds. In any case, Irene will be a powerful hurricane and a serious threat to the Bahamas and the East Coast of the United States.

[Akoto]

10. I'm on the east coast of Florida ...

We started putting up the hurricane shutters today. If the track reverses and starts trending west, we'll probably evacuate tomorrow, ahead of the rush.

Lost a house to Jeanne years ago, and we don't fool around now. It'll be a rough trip for me, though, given that I am normally bedridden with pain. :(

[Baclava]

16. Looks like you are safe

[tawadi]

11. Here is a good website I found today

It has a lot of information.

http://spaghettimodels.com

[Odin2005]

12. One of the models (HWRF) is have Irene hit Daytona Beach as a Cat5! OMG!!!

:scared:

it's Cat2 now and undergoing rapid intensification. This could be REALLY bad.

[ixion]

13. Yeah, missing Hispaniola means it's going to be big

get ready. I'm over here on the Gulf Coast, and I'm getting ready to batten things down tomorrow.

[snooper2]

22. Is there a model that can send it due West straight into Dallas Please

Now even my live oaks are starting to look sad.

I've got one evergreen that I've been dumping water on each evening to try to save :(

[dipsydoodle]

14. Hurricane Irene strengthens as it swirls over Caribbean

A strengthening Hurricane Irene has swept over the northern Dominican Republic, bringing strong winds and heavy downpours.

The storm, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, had maximum sustained winds of 160km (100 mph).

Forecasters say Irene is set to intensify further as it heads north-west towards the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Bahamas.

The storm is forecast to reach the south-eastern US by the weekend.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-14625665

Hurricane watch here : http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Baclava]

15. Shifting east - should miss FL and head for Carolina

Computer model guidance from last night (with extra data collected from NOAA and Air force planes) has shifted right which implies Florida will see very little impact other than beach erosion and rough surf, which is good news for them (right along the coast may be a little breezy though), however based on the official forecast, a major hurricane is expected to pass 150 miles to the east of Florida, tearing through the central Bahamas.

After which it is projected to make landfall in North Carolina near Wilmington late night Saturday into Sunday morning. Most models have come into agreement on it staying east of the US until North Carolina. The track may shift slightly west or east during the day, but should remain relatively in the cone.

Beyond the forecast, After that it may rake along the east coast into New England, so folks as far up as Maine into Canada will want to watch Irene.



http://flhurricane.com/

[WilmywoodNCparalegal]

17. With my luck, it's probably coming right on top of my house

south of Wilmington. :(

[Baclava]

18. You can't trust em....keep an eye on it....she's blowing up

[RebelOne]

25. Nope, you definitely cannot trust them.

Hurricane Cloe hit South Florida in the '60s. It was not supposed to hit but just graze the coast, so nobody was prepared, But suddently it made a turn and slammed right into the Miami area. There was a lot of damage because people just did not prepare for it because they believed the weather forecasters.

[ellie]

26. Good lord!

[Baclava]

29. That was Tuesday

this is today

[pitohui]

19. get your supplies now, folks!

let's hope this one blows out to sea but it looks like it will be making east coast landfall

[Baclava]

20. gettin' bigger

[kentauros]

21. Make sure you have a "Hurricane Bingo!" card printed out, too,

for those of you that won't necessarily get hit, or not by much. The rest should pay attention to both the local media and government sites (NHC, NWS.)

http://blogs.houstonpress.com/hairballs/2011/08/hurricane_irene_tips_from_the.php

This is for when you're watching the local news coverage. They all report on storms in pretty much the same way, so it's fun to keep score ;)

[Baclava]

23. Forecasts say Cat 4 tomorrow

[Baclava]

24. It's started it's turn to the North - - Wind: 115 MPH — Location: 25.9N 76.8W — Movement: NNW

Meanwhile, look who just showed up..


Jim Cantore and Stephanie Abrams head into the path of Irene

Jim Cantore is currently on his way to Cape Cod and Stephanie Abrams will set up shop on the Outer Banks of North Carolina.

http://www.examiner.com/the-weather-channel-in-national/jim-cantore-and-stephanie-abrams-head-into-the-path-of-irene

[Cal Carpenter]

27. Dr Masters predicting possible 10-15 ft storm surge along coast

Irene an extremely dangerous storm surge threat to the mid-Atlantic and New England

By Dr. Jeff Masters
Published: 3:43 PM GMT on August 25, 2011
Back in 1938, long before satellites, radar, the hurricane hunters, and the modern weather forecasting system, the great New England hurricane of 1938 roared northwards into Long Island, New York at 60 mph, pushing a storm surge more than 15 feet high to the coast. Hundreds of Americans died in this greatest Northeast U.S. hurricane on record, the only Category 3 storm to hit the Northeast since the 1800s. Since 1938, there have been a number of significant hurricanes in the Northeast--the Great Atlantic hurricane of 1944, Hazel of 1954, Diane of 1955, Donna of 1960, Gloria of 1985, Bob of 1991, and Floyd of 1999--but none of these were as formidable as the great 1938 storm.

Today, we have a hurricane over the Bahamas--Hurricane Irene--that threatens to be the Northeast's most dangerous storm since the 1938 hurricane. We've all been watching the computer models, which have been steadily moving their forecast tracks for Irene more to the east--first into Florida, then Georgia, then South Carolina, then North Carolina, then offshore of North Carolina--and it seemed that this storm would do what so many many storms have done in the past, brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina, then head out to sea. Irene will not do that. Irene will likely hit Eastern North Carolina, but the storm is going northwards after that, and may deliver an extremely destructive blow to the mid-Atlantic and New England states.

I am most concerned about the storm surge danger to North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, and the rest of the New England coast. Irene is capable of inundating portions of the coast under 10 - 15 feet of water, to the highest storm surge depths ever recorded. I strongly recommend that all residents of the mid-Atlantic and New England coast familiarize themselves with their storm surge risk. The best source of that information is the National Hurricane Center's Interactive Storm Surge Risk Map, which allows one to pick a particular Category hurricane and zoom in to see the height above ground level a worst-case storm surge may go. If you prefer static images, use wunderground's Storm Surge Inundation Maps. If these tools indicate you may be at risk, consult your local or state emergency management office to determine if you are in a hurricane evacuation zone.

Mass evacuations of low-lying areas along the entire coast of New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia are at least 50% likely to be ordered by Saturday. The threat to the coasts of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, and Maine is less certain, but evacuations may be ordered in those states, as well. Irene is an extremely dangerous storm for an area that has no experience with hurricanes, and I strongly urge you to evacuate from the coast if an evacuation is ordered by local officials. My area of greatest concern is the coast from Ocean City, Maryland, to Atlantic City, New Jersey. It is possible that this stretch of coast will receive a direct hit from a slow-moving Category 2 hurricane hitting during the highest tide of the month, bringing a 10 - 15 foot storm surge.


(random paragraphs added to improve readability)

more at link:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

[Odin2005]

28. Strong Cat1 in NYC. Jesus!

:scared:

[Harmony Blue]

30. It could go either way realistically

but please, please take this seriously and make the appropriate prepartions. Have a plan A, plan B, and plan C based on what transpires the next 12 hours.

[Baclava]

31. truth....this one is nothing to mess around with