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dipsydoodle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 06:40 AM
Original message
Spain election: Rajoy's Popular Party predicted to win
Source: BBC News

Voters in Spain are heading to the polls in an election expected to bring in a new conservative government to tackle the country's finances.

Opinion polls have given the centre-right Popular Party, led by Mariano Rajoy, a clear lead over the governing Socialist Party.

Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero - who is not standing for re-election - called the election amid concerns over the economy.

Mr Zapatero has led Spain since 2004.

Read more: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15809062
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DCBob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 07:29 AM
Response to Original message
1. The natural reaction by people in a crisis is to become more conservative.
This is my fear for all of Europe and here as well. The liberal/progressive agenda may get steamrolled by short-sited crisis thinking.
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Larkspur Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 08:06 AM
Response to Reply #1
2. Or more likely is to vote out the ruling party
If the conservatives were in power, the Socialists would most likely win.
People generally blame those in power for their ills.
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Imajika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 09:15 AM
Response to Reply #2
3. Either of those alternatives bodes poorly for the United States...
Whether people tend to gravitate towards tradition and conservatism in times of crisis or just vote out the party in power, either of those alternatives would point to a rise of the right wing here in the US considering the President is a Democrat.
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Yo_Mama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 10:50 AM
Response to Reply #2
4. To vote for change, yes
It just so happened that the Socialists were in power, so now they will be out.

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FarLeftFist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 11:50 AM
Response to Original message
5. Wall Street wins again.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 12:13 PM
Response to Original message
6. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
freshwest Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 12:28 PM
Response to Reply #6
7. Something old, you mean.
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quakerboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 04:13 PM
Response to Reply #6
10. I am curious
I really dont know the answer to this.

Did the Spanish socialist party under Zapatero genuinely fail on their own merits? Or were they handed a plate of crap by Aznar's Peoples party who controlled from 96-04, and were unable to recover from it.
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iandhr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 01:55 PM
Response to Original message
8. What we call left/right in the United States
does not work in Europe. The fact that european center-right parities support universal healthcare is part of this. As an example Sarkozy in many ways is more liberal then Obama even though in France he is a "conservative"
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iandhr Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 01:58 PM
Response to Original message
9. "It could give the right its biggest win since the end of the Franco dictatorship in 1975."
Nice to know the right is committed to obtaining power by democratic means.
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stockholmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 06:18 PM
Response to Original message
11. Spain's right romp towards thumping polls win
Source: Agence France-Presse / France 24

AFP - Spain's right romped towards a thumping victory in general elections Sunday, which would complete a clean-sweep rejection of governments in the crisis-torn eurozone nations.

Bowed by a 21.5-percent jobless rate, economic stagnation and deep spending cuts, the 36-million-strong Spanish electorate was set to hand the right a crushing win over the ruling Socialists.

Opposition Popular Party leader Mariano Rajoy has a lead of about 15 percentage points, latest polls showed, sufficient to secure an absolute majority in parliament and a free hand to reform.

Spain would thus become the last of the so-called periphery eurozone nations to ditch its government after the debt storm toppled rulers of Ireland, Portugal, Greece and Italy.


Read more: http://www.france24.com/en/20111120-spains-right-romp-towards-thumping-polls-win



Centre-right wins Spain election - TV exit poll

http://uk.ibtimes.com/articles/252825/20111120/centre-right-wins-spain-election-tv-exit-poll.htm

The opposition People's Party won a crushing victory in Sunday's Spanish election, a TV exit poll said, as voters vented their rage on the ruling Socialists for the worst economic crisis in generations.

The poll by public broadcaster RTVE predicted the centre-right PP would win an absolute majority of 181 to 185 seats in the 350-seat lower house with 43.5 per cent of the votes. The Socialists would take 115-119 seats, in their worst performance ever, it said.

In a rainy day across the country, people voted in a grim mood against a background of soaring unemployment, cuts in public spending and a debt crisis that has put Spain in the front line of the euro zone's fight for survival. Further hardship lies ahead, with PP leader Mariano Rajoy set to bring in even harsher austerity measures to appease financial markets.

"We can choose the sauce they will cook us in, but we're still going to be cooked," said civil servant Jose Vasquez, 45,
who was among the early voters in the capital Madrid. The Socialists under Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero have led Spain from boom to bust in seven years in the euro zone's fourth-largest economy.

snip
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Sarah Ibarruri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #11
12. This sucks big time. nt
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sam11111 Donating Member (638 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. not all "topples" were moves to RW - Italy exited a RW for another RWer..is he milder?
Spain - no viable LW these days, like here?
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Sarah Ibarruri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. I believe the prob is that the socialists sided with GW Bush - in essence sold themselves
somewhat like Democrats did in this country, to the right wingnuts. The Socialist Party is now seen as useless. They have no viable candidates to pick from.

The only positive thing in all this, is that right wing candidates in Spain are not nearly as right wing as Republicans are here.

Still, we'll have to see what happens. A country that turns right wing when the economy goes to hell, is making a huge mistake. The economy goes bust whenever right wing ideology (which is how I see uncontrolled capitalism) is allowed to thrive.
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quakerboy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #14
16. it will be fascinating to watch
In that trainwreck kinda way. How is the Spanish RW going to deal with being in the shit from the start, rather than having been handed a surplus to squander?

I cant see how following general RW ideology of cuts, austerity, and less regulation of the rich, at a point when they were elected because the left let those things happen, is going to let them retain power long.
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Sarah Ibarruri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #16
19. Probably not, and the Spanish will not allow their health, employment and other benefits be
eliminated.

I think Hell will break loose out there.
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Ken Burch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. The problem is that Spain's Socialists didn't stand up to the financial system
And didn't make a passionate defense of the social wage and workers' rights.

They chose to live on their knees rather than die on their feet, and ended up dying anyway.

Perhaps a genuine Left party will emerge in Spain now as a result of this, a party whose values are informed by the anti-capitalist resistance movement that has shown such strength across that country.

There's no way the PSOE can keep arguing for the Third Way after this humiliation.

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Sarah Ibarruri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. You've got it right. The PSOE joined the ranks of the right wing in behaving like elites
They played footsies with GW Bush a tremendous lot, and allowed their country to rot. People are sick and tired of the PSOE.
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DeSwiss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #11
15. ''We are led by the least among us.'' - Terence McKenna n/t
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Ken Burch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #11
17. The Socialists lost because they acted like a right-wing government WOULD have acted
in response to the debt.

You can't run a "they'll make big cuts" campaign when YOU'VE been making big cuts for the last three years.

The only way for the Left or center-Left to win is to make it clear that they will be COMPLETELY different from the right if the win or retain power.

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Ken Burch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #11
20. How did the parties who ran to the left of the Socialists do this time?
Edited on Sun Nov-20-11 05:15 PM by Ken Burch
If that exit poll is accurate as to the PSOE's showing, about 60 seats went to opposition parties other than the PSOE

(edited to correct math error).
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muriel_volestrangler Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #20
23. The Catalan party is the 3rd largest
The elections created Spain's most fragmented parliament since it became a democracy, with no less than 13 parties represented in parliament.

The Catalan regionalist party (CiU) emerged as the third parliamentary force with 16 seats, according to the preliminary results. Socialist losses apparently benefited the far-left party IU, which increased its representation from two to 11 seats.

The Basque separatist party Amaiur emerged as a new force in parliament, with 7 seats.

http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/europe/news/article_1676378.php/Spanish-conservatives-take-power-in-historic-vote
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Ken Burch Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #23
24. Amaiur, in addition to being separatist, is also considered left-wing.
That probably had as much to do with its showing as any intensification of Basque nationalism.

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Peace Patriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 11:06 PM
Response to Reply #23
26. Thanks for that info, muriel! Comparisons are tricky--
especially between U.S. and European politicians, but also between a country like Spain and, say, Chile, where something similar happened in the last election--the socialist party (Michele Batchelet, president) was voted out in favor of a rightwing billionaire, due to the "centrism" of the socialist party and failure to attract enough young voters (according to some analysts). The thinking of some is that this would provide an opportunity to liven up the socialist party and push it to the left (more representative of the majority in the country). The rightwing billionaire, Sebastián Piñera, has made a botch of it and now has something like a 25% approval rating (Batchelet had something like an 80% approval rating, personally, when she left office, though her designated successor lost to Piñera). A huge and vibrant, and far left, student movement has arisen to oppose Piñera.

It looks like comparison with Chile is in order. In both places, the leftist leaders went too far to the right (the rich and the corporate). Batchelet's personal popularity was unable to do the Chilean socialists any good, as to winning elections. Zapatero is not that popular and the socialist party in addition yielded to all this "austerity" nonsense promulgated by the rich and are being deservedly punished by the voters. The right will likely fail in Spain as well. ("Austerity" and the rich getting richer couldn't be more wrong amidst this Bushwhack Depression!). More and even bigger protests are likely. However, it may not matter to the rich how much their bought and paid for leaders anger the poor and the working class and their advocates. The rich, worldwide, are in a panic and, as long as they have the length of another presidential term to loot everybody some more, they can't and don't think beyond that. I think it's true, here and there, that we have entirely lost a "responsible" upper class--rich people loyal to their country and their people and to society as a whole.

Spain has some wildcards that Chile doesn't have--for instance, the Catalans who did very well. They are leftists but with their own regionalist agenda. So it seems like Spanish voters rejected the "center-right" establishment socialist party, for good reason, but didn't have a unified alternative to vote for, so the right won the presidency. In Chile, on the other hand, the socialist party is seen as a viable vehicle for organizing the poor and workers and their advocates--they just need to do it.

Another difference is that Latin America is a rip-roaring leftist region now, with many leaders who have rejected U.S. domination and the U.S. "Wall Street" model of the rich grinding the poor into the dust. So Chile--although often enough an outlier in regional politics (Batchelet was exceptional in her support of other leftist leaders)--needs to get along well with strong leftist leaders in neighboring countries and in the region. Europe's leftists--at least the establishment leftists--seem a very weak force, compared to the combo of leftists Rouseff in Brazil, Chavez in Venezuela, Morales in Bolivia, Correa in Ecuador, Humala in Peru, Fernandez in Argentina, Mujica in Uruguay and Lugo in Paraguay--a really kickass bunch of leaders who are cooperating with each other. And these days even Santos in the U.S. client state of Colombia in sounding like a leftist on some issues (he has promised universal health care by next year and has even said he might go along with legalizing drugs).

In Europe, you have the elite technocrats of the EU running things and serving the rich--and establishment leftists bending over for them. In Latin America, you have innovative and visionary people running things and serving the poor majority. So Chileans have more incentive to get with the social justice program that has resulted in so many leftist victories--after the fiasco of Pinera. Spain doesn't have that example of nearly the whole continent going kickass leftist and SUCCEEDING economically by NOT TAKING Wall Street's devious advice.

Comparison with the U.S. is even more problematic. I do have the haunting feeling that the failure of the Limp Left here is part of a far rightwing/Corporate playbill that will be enacted by Diebold/ES&S next year with their 'TRADE SECRET' voting machines (all over the U.S.). It's possible that Obama was just a stand-in, to shift blame for everything to the Democrats, to make a Bush Junta return in 2012 more plausible. They CAN do it. That's what this egregiously non-transparent vote counting system was set up TO DO. The only question is "When?" (Or rather, the only question is the presidency. The far right--to which ES&S, which bought out Diebold, is very close--has already obviously stolen Congress.)

I don't know anything about Spain's vote counting system but I'd guess that it's fair to good on the matter of honest, transparent elections. I've wondered about Chile, but people who know seem to think their election system is okay--and it certainly is in most of South America and parts of Central America. Here, though, it is the worst. Our system is very, VERY riggable.

This makes it difficult to compare our situation with any other country in the democratic world. We have not done our civic homework, as Latin Americans and Europeans have mostly done, to ensure the bottom line of democracy: vote counting in the PUBLIC venue. There is not an office holder in this country--including Obama--who can prove that he or she was actually elected.

What the people want is irrelevant here, in my opinion. Tolerances for oppression may be craftily gaged, as our corporate rulers and war profiteers determine what to do to us and how much trouble they want to deal with, and in what timeframes. But what we want is NEVER "on the table." They fear us. They do. But they've also had a lot of success selling us excrement--that is, they loathe us--and what is good for most of us and for the country is simply not a consideration, as to who will front their tyranny.

This is not the case in Chile and in most of Latin America and it is not the case in Europe. The Corporate Elite has lost its vulture grasp on Latin America and its hold on Europe is shaky. I think that Spain's left will re-group and start cooperating and will re-invigorate itself, and so will Chile's. Here we don't have any chance of it--nor of any reform whatsoever--until we get rid of the 'TRADE SECRET' voting machines.

We also have the problem of the Corporate Two-Party System's lock on power--a problem that was among the very first that Latin American leftist activists addressed. (They solved it, in some cases, by rewrites of their constitution, which is almost impossible to do here but quite common in Latin America.) The Corporate Media and the filthy Corporate campaign contribution system will solve themselves once we restore transparent vote counting and become able to elect true representatives. Latin America has worse Corporate Media than we do, and billions of our tax dollars infused into their elections always on the rightwing side--and look what they've been able to do!

But having two Corporate Parties is a very big obstacle. I think we have little choice but to work within the Democratic Party and reclaim it for the people. It was the party of the New Deal. It can be again-- once we have restored TRANSPARENT vote counting--a very important key to the fabulous success of the left in Latin America.
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dipsydoodle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 06:18 PM
Response to Reply #11
22. Some background to Spain's woes here
What's the matter with Spain? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15734280
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Imajika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Nov-20-11 09:46 PM
Response to Original message
25. So much for the Indignants movement making any difference...
More European protests that have come to nothing. The Spanish went out and elected a government which will absolutely gut social spending. Get ready for austerity on steroids now that the right wingers are in complete control.
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