STOCK MARKET WATCH, WEDNESDAY AUGUST 6.....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Wednesday August 6, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 534
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 267
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 239 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 297 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 139
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 623
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 0
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 5, 2003

Dow 9,036.32 -149.72 (-1.63%)
Nasdaq 1,673.50 -40.56 (-2.37%)
S&P 500 965.46 -17.36 (-1.77%)
10-Year Bond 4.44% +0.12 (+2.80%)
Gold future...... 353.00 +1.80 (+0.51%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

The U.S. Government Borrows $24 Billion

The borrowing demands of the U.S. government have put a tremendous amount of pressure on the financial markets. Today the U.S. Treasury sold $24 billion in 3-year Treasury Notes, which worked as a massive vacuum on the markets by sucking in all available capital. With the huge offering of 3-year notes, money came out of stocks and bonds across the board. According to CBS MarketWatch, “U.S. 3-year Treasury note sale sees lackluster demand. The bid-to-cover ratio, a measure of demand, came in at a weaker-than-expected 1.32 versus 1.96 at the last sale in May.” Investors were not exactly lined-up to buy treasuries, but there were at least enough buyers to absorb the debt, albeit at the expense of further declines in bonds of all maturities and a big acceleration in falling stock prices.

Now that the offering of three-year debt is out of the way, tomorrow our government will borrow an additional $18 billion in five-year notes and then on Thursday another $18 billion will be borrowed using 10-year treasury debt. This is big, big money that the government MUST borrow. If they are not able to borrow the money from investors, they must either do without, or effectively print the necessary money out of thin air. The alternative to borrowing the money would be for the government to simply cease operations, as they would have no money left in their checking account.

<..cut..>

Back To What Matters

The only thing that matters this week is the selling of the government debt. Treasury prices have been plummeting, and with all of the additional supply this week, prices could continue to decline. The second factor that hurt bonds today was the release of the Service Sector Index by the Institute for Supply Management. The index of non-manufacturing businesses had a reading of 60.6 in June and was expected to decline to a reading of 58 when the surprise number came in today at 65.1. This is the highest level for the index since it began back in July of 1997. Also note that the service sector of our economy represents 85% of our total economy. So we get the highest reading in six years for 85% of our economy, and the stock market goes down 2% on the good news.

more...

[ozymandius]

2. Stocks Set for Cautious Open

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks are set for a cautious open on Wednesday after technology bellwether Cisco Systems Inc. CSCO.O reported a jump in quarterly net income but failed to top Wall Street expectations.

Equity futures ticked higher but were still well below fair value after a steep sell-off on Tuesday.

"It's really a flip of the coin, and it's hard to say which direction we are going to open. Cisco came out with numbers that we should be excited about, but we are not," said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co.

story

[ozymandius]

3. Wall Street set for rebound

US markets were set to bounce back on Wednesday after worries about the growth prospects for the world's leading economy sparked a late sell-off in the previous session.

But technology shares may come under renewed pressure following earnings from Cisco System that failed to beat expectations.

Late on Tuesday shares in the computer networking products maker fell more than $1 to $17.85 in afterhours trading on Instinet, after it reported a sharp rise in quarterly earnings but a fall in revenues.

By 1100 GMT US futures were all higher suggesting Wall Street would open with gains. The Dow Jones Industrial futures were 30 points higher, the S&P 500 futures were up 2.30 points and the Nasdaq Composite futures were 6.5 points stronger.

story

I am skeptical - because this story takes nothing into account from the bond market. Also to note: why would anyone leverage their bets on futures markets at such an early hour? This market is ALWAYS inflated. As I recall - futures markets were singing happy songs two days ago before the roller coaster ride took us on a trip through 140 points from negative to positive.

[Maeve]

6. Interesting....Briefing.com has futures down, not up

8:55AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.0. The futures levels are unchanged since the last update and continue to indicate a lower open for the cash market.
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo
:shrug:

I think I'll go with this story headline: Hold Onto Your Hat
The S&P 500 has broken below its two month trading range. Big things could happen.
August 6, 2003: 8:45 AM EDT
By Justin Lahart, CNN/Money Senior Writer
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - Until Tuesday, the S&P 500 was locked in one of the tightest ranges seen in years. Now that it has fallen below it, the talk on Wall Street is that stocks may be in for a very tough time.

It's hard to tell whether the chatter will be right, but one thing seems clear: Whichever way the market moves now, the move is going to be big.

[ozymandius]

4. That's all for me folks.

I have a doctor's appointment this morning. So I must be on my way. It's just a checkup.

:donut: :donut: :donut:

Have a great day - I'll probably check in later to see what the PPT has planned for all of us as they print more paper money to cover Bush's frivolous adventurism.

Ozymandius

[JNelson6563]

5. Mornin' Ozy!

Hope all goes well at the Doc's office.

I'd've been here long ago but it seems the new morning tradition of board slow-down was too much for me to overcome. I hope it gets straightened out soon...time constraints and all.

I caught the wrap-up this morn too, loved this (among other things):

Precious metals are in a holding pattern until the debt is sold. In fact, gold investors were put on notice last Friday in the late-day take-down right before the close. Silver investors got a hand slap today with silver losing ground, but the stocks held up well. I read the metal bashing as someone saying, "Don't even think of buying gold and silver until all the debt is sold. We can't let the metals rise because it will show weakness in our paper." Everyone will know the precious metals bull market is real when the price of the metals goes up in all currencies. With the current stresses on the global monetary system, precious metals are a very nice way to feel some security in the preservation of wealth.

I too see this coming.

Should be an interesting day. I have to take the young Miss for violin lessons later this morning but will check back in later.

Julie

[Maeve]

7. 9:32 and down

Dow 9,028.76 -7.56 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq 1,663.07 -10.43 (-0.62%)
S&P 500 963.73 -1.73 (-0.18%)

[JNelson6563]

8. but, but but...

the futures were so bright and shiney!!

Mornin' Maeve! :hi: I'm out for a couple of hours, can only wonder what the landscape will be when I return.

Julie

[Maeve]

9. Have fun! I've got to shop this afternoon

Promised to take a couple of teenaged girls to the mall.. :scared:

Looks like Brief.com was more accurate about the opening direction this a.m.
Dow 9,024.56 -11.76 (-0.13%)
Nasdaq 1,661.17 -12.33 (-0.74%)
S&P 500 963.13 -2.33 (-0.24%)

[Robbien]

10. Thought this comment by Keegan of the Guardian is interesting

None of this makes it any easier to predict what will actually happen to bonds - or indeed to the economy - since the outlook seems to change every other week. The US economy has been defying gravity for so long by expanding, notwithstanding its huge twin deficits (budget and trade), that there is no reason to suppose it will suddenly stop.

If it does go belly-up, there will be no shortage of pundits saying that it was inevitable. But that has not happened yet. Its body may be sick, but its soul goes marching on.

[Beetwasher]

11. How long has the market been hovering in this same territory?

It seems like it's been hovering between 9k and 9200 for quite a while...

[Maeve]

12. All summer, since about the begining of June

But "hover" is an untenable position...

Dow 9,025.05 -11.27 (-0.12%)
Nasdaq 1,661.59 -11.91 (-0.71%)
S&P 500 963.92 -1.54 (-0.16%)

[Maeve]

13. 10:12--morning struggles

A bit up and down, but mostly down...the bounce went flat.

Dow 9,016.65 -19.67 (-0.22%)
Nasdaq 1,655.00 -18.50 (-1.11%)
S&P 500 963.02 -2.44 (-0.25%)

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

14. Your take?

What is driving this? 960 was a key support. Now, we know that, heretofore, the whole thing was largely smoke and mirrors, but for the most part, the market has been ignoring realities and forging onward, ever onward. Is there some bit of news that I have missed or have they stopped feeding those people the bread made from the spoiled rye?

[Maeve]

15. The market has been buying on rumor

And selling on news--and the news really hasn't been as upbeat as some of the "Snow jobs" would have us believe. The bond market is also figuring in (see the Wrap-up by Mike Hartman article Ozy referenced). Plus, August and September tend to be sucky times for stocks, anyway.

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

16. As regards Sept:

I see all of this a preliminaries for some real downward action starting in September and resulting in An October to Remember.

"Remember" as in the way people who deal with PTSD remember things...

[Maeve]

17. Ah-ha! I think there are some programs running today

Just as the S&P hit 960, BOOM! An up-surge of buying!

Dow 9,053.06 +16.74 (+0.19%)
Nasdaq 1,658.57 -14.93 (-0.89%)
S&P 500 966.57 +1.11 (+0.11%)

[Maeve]

18. 11:09 and still bouncing around

Dow 9,039.97 +3.65 (+0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,654.72 -18.78 (-1.12%)
S&P 500 964.89 -0.57 (-0.06%)

[Maeve]

19. 11:27 and there it goes again...back to the red ink

Dow 9,031.85 -4.47 (-0.05%)
Nasdaq 1,650.63 -22.87 (-1.37%)
S&P 500 963.55 -1.91 (-0.20%)

[Coventina]

20. The "I Ching" on today's market

Hi everyone!

I would have posted this about 2&1/2 hours ago, but I couldn't sign in. In fact, it seemed like the whole site was down.

Anyway, today's reading is ENCOURAGING changing to CALCULATED WAITING.
I really have the feeling that it is directed to me personally, because of my procedure yesterday. *ouch* I'm stuck at home today because I can't drive for 24 hours due to being knocked out.
But the cool pain meds are pretty fun! :party: I can't tell you how many typos I've caught myself making!!

I'll give you a quote from Ching to go on, "In business and political affairs, friendliness, kindness, and expansiveness toward others will create a spirit of loyalty." Hmmm, sounds like advice Rove needs to hear! Of course, if conservatives were friendly, kind and exapansive (giving) to others we'd have to start calling them liberals!
:-)

[Maeve]

21. Hello, Coventina!

Let's stay with that "ENCOURAGING" for you, shall we? :-)

As for CALCULATED WAITING, the markets are going a tad nutso, so it may be 3 pm before we know WHAT they'll do for sure!

And yes, the board was super slow earlier, but it seems to be feeling much better now.

[jamesinca]

22. Ok Ozymandius you have not failed me in the last 2 replys

The markets tend to follow each other, DJIA and S&P are up, what is going on with the NASDAQ why is it lagging so far behind today? It does not seem to be recovering and getting out of the red like the other two from todays start.

[Robbien]

24. Let see if I may take a stab at this

Today is the reversal of yesterday's bond activity. Yesterday's 3-year auction in the US bond market went poorly, causing a rise in the interest rates and a retreat in the stock market. Today's 5-year auction was strong, causing an advance in the bond market and a rebound in stocks. Nasdaq is lagging because the Cisco news today hit it harder than the other two market's downs.

[ozymandius]

31. Hi jamesinca - I've been away today.

Otehrwise, I would have loved to take a swing at your query at an earlier hour. Did you hear the news on Cisco? Apparently, the numbers for Cisco are good but not as good as some would have hoped. Also - I believe that the Nasdaq's doldrums have everything to do with tech stocks in general.

Guess which brilliant billionaire financier does not play in tech? Answer: Warren Buffett. There's much to be said for his kind of genius when he settles onmore traditional markets with a focus on long-term growth.

Sorry for the absence. Feel free to ask me another $1.75 question tomorrow.

[JNelson6563]

23. What a day!!

12:27 and You Are Here:


Dow 9,087.72 +51.40 (+0.57%)
Nasdaq 1,662.99 -10.51 (-0.63%)
S&P 500 969.47 +4.01 (+0.42%)
10-Yr Bond 4.336% -0.105


Sudden burst of mayhem here but will be back (I hope haha)

Julie

[mrsteve]

25. Almost 1:00 CST - still up a bit

Market Level Change Last update
djia 9089.90 53.58/0.59% 8/6 13:51
nasdaq 1668.36 -5.14/0.31% 8/6 13:51
s&p 500 970.97 5.51/0.57% 8/6 13:51

[Maeve]

26. And just before 3 EDT (with blather)

2:30PM: The Nasdaq retested its 50-day moving average at 1670 and broke through it, leading to intensified buying interest... As a result, all of the major averages are at new session highs and the Nasdaq has broken into positive territory... The oil services sector is worth highlighting since it has been among the consistent leaders to the upside in today's session... Its resilience is especially noteworthy in the face of a downgrade of one of its components, Diamond Offshore (DO 18.62 -0.23) to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan based on the company's fleet status showing lackluster day rates...
Separately, the price of crude oil fell $-0.57 to $31.65/bbl after the U.S. Energy Department reported that nationwide inventories increased last week, narrowing a year-on-year deficit... Specifically, U.S. supplies rose 2.9 mln barrels to $280.2 mln barrels in the week ended Friday...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

on edit: the markets REALLY went up because I took two teenaged girls shopping! HA!

Dow 9,109.78 +73.46 (+0.81%)
Nasdaq 1,668.89 -4.61 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 972.81 +7.35 (+0.76%)

[Maeve]

29. Just before the final bell

Blather presented for your consideration...

3:30PM: The indices are extending their slide precipitated by the Nasdaq's failure to maintain its positioning above the 50-day moving average at 1670... The retreat is supported by the majority of the sectors, including the influential semiconductor, financial, biotech, drug, and retail groups... One lagging group worth highlighting is the healthcare sector, which has been weak since July 31 and has given back roughly 14% since last Thursday...
JP Morgan commented on the sell-off this morning saying they expect favorable pricing trends and premium yields in 2004, and with the stocks trading at almost a 35% discount to the S&P 500, believe valuations reflect the potential for a cyclical slowdown, which likely would not occur until 2005...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

[masmdu]

27. SPX...ABSOLUTELY CRUCIAL TIME HERE....

The SPX is testing the bottom of the range it's been in for a while now 960.

If 960-950 (a spike low to as low as 942) gives way then we will see a huge decline between now and the first weeks of 2004...30%-35%.

If, however, the SPX can retake 985-95 then expect the upper range of 1015 to be broken on the way to 1065 and then a NEW BULL with a rise of about 50%!!! to 1500.

Today and the next few day are CRUCIAL and will point the path for months to come.

(as always this is my own reading on the market. please do not use my reading as trding advice.)

[masmdu]

28. BTW...I'm short here SPY....but I will switch in a heartbeat if the above

comes to pass.

[masmdu]

33. And...Today (SPX) the SMA 13 crossed the SMA 50 down....

Another reason to not look on the long side here.

Conversely, if the SMA 13 crossed the 50 up then there would be reason to be long.

[Maeve]

30. Final figures for the day

Dow 9,061.74 +25.42 (+0.28%)
Nasdaq 1,652.68 -20.82 (-1.24%)
S&P 500 967.08 +1.62 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond 4.288% -0.153

[radfringe]

32. Hi all

Been swamped here on the homefront - the in-laws are coming the in-laws are coming...

Major cleaning and home repairs in process....

Plus work has me hopping - ISO is coming ISO is coming.... groan

Hope all is well with everyone..

Alrighty...onto the markets - listened to some talkinghead blather yesterday and within a 10 minute span of time the low volume was mentioned about 10 times with the "excuse" that it's vacation time...

Didn't catch yesterday's DU market watch, and didn't spot this in today's watch soooooo forgive me if you are aware of this

Mortgage rates are going up - this means we will see a sloooooowwww down in the housing market. Housing has been something that has helped prop up the dismal economy. We may still see some good housing numbers for another month or two, but the rise in the rates will soon kill it. Of course the excuse will be that it's a seasonal drop-off (i.e. winter is coming winter is coming)... so we may have to wait till spring for definite confirmation

Anyone know anything about HR25 - the national sales tax proposal ? Comments?

Magic 8-Ball: look for a slow decline in the markets, 1 step forward 3 steps back. That corner they talk about for the recovery is getting further and further away. time to batten down the hatches and look for a safe mattress for your money. AWOL will be ducking questions about the economy and reving up the terra-machine.

With the mortgage rates going up - this means one less toothpick propping things up. Yes, there has been an increase in the manufacturing sector - but it's mostly due to defense contracts and these contractors are not doing any new hires. it's still a JOB-LOSS recovery.

[JNelson6563]

34. Hey all~~

Good to see you Rad, couldn't agree more with your assesment.

Maeve, thanks for posting those closing #s, when I left to take teenage daughter school shopping things were looking on the way up, Nasdaq had just broken positive territory. I go spend money as one does with a teenage daughter and I come back to a darker picture. Go figure.

With as bare as my cupboards are though there should be a non-military boost to the GDP when I go for groceries tomorrow. ;-)

See ya in the AM marketeers--
Julie

[Maeve]

35. First impression of national sales tax

Hasn't got a snowball's chance in a Texas summer......while I think there is some merit to the idea, a lot of states haven't been able to raise sales tax high enough to fund themselves and turned to income taxes. Politically dead in the water, IMHO.

Agree that the housing bubble is ready to deflate--hope it's slow and not a POP!

Enjoy how the place looks when you get it ready for the in-laws (that's always been my solace!)

And without dragging up what I'm getting ready for again...y'all ever think that euros look like Monopoly money?? :P