Latest CNN/USAT poll--Bush approval at 46%

[kstewart33]

With 51% disapproving. Just reported on CNN. But Bush leads in the race, 48% to 47% for Kerry. A majority disapprove of Bush's handling of Iraq and the economy.

Link at USA Today: http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/polls/2004-05-10-bush-poll_x.htm

[Beetwasher]

1. This is a Bullshit propoganda poll

Gallup is a tool, nothing more. If they have these numbers it's much worse.

51% dissapprove but they have him UP 1 point on the election? What utter bullshit!

Nice quote in the USA Today article:

"...the only president "this far behind" at this point in an election year was Gerald Ford, and he lost."

[diplomats]

9. Gallup's polls of likely voters over-represent Repukes

It's something they don't advertise, but they regularly poll 5 percent more Repukes than Dems, which is ridiculous because Dem turnout in November will at least match that of GOP voters.

[Beetwasher]

11. Yeah, I Know

I've been saying for a long time now that Gallup is corrupt. This poll is merely additional evidence.

[BadGimp]

45. "...the only president "this far behind" at this point in an election year

uh oh

I can only imagine the horror that awaits us now.

What horrific event will befall our democracy so that this satanic clown possee can ride roughshod over our future.

[Yavin4]

2. To Quote Paul Simon

Slip Sliding Away
Slip Sliding Away
You know the nearer your destination
The more you're slip sliding away.

[Betty]

3. What does it take

for him to get down to 0%???? Where it should be? I swear, he'd have to have sex with animals on live TV, and even then, I don't know that it would matter to some of these assholes.

[DiverDave]

4. They can put all the lies out for as long as they want.

Bottom line is that more people disapprove and will vote against him then will vote for him.

[Sagan]

5. but.. but.. he's a popular wartime "President"!!

Bill Schneider said so on CNN!

[Arugula Latte]

24. Question:

Did Bill "AEI" Schneider say that recently? And if so, was he wearing his little NASCAR get-up at the time?

[blm]

6. No way is Bush winning at 48% with 46% approval.

Gallup had to manipulate the numbers to get 48% for Bush.

[gasperc]

8. that is ironic

or evidence of an utterly corrupted poll

:mad:

[Beetwasher]

10. Indeed

So 2% of the people who disapprove of him will vote for him anyway???? What did they do, use a different sample???

[diplomats]

14. No, but they narrowed it to likely voters

and that has an oversampling of Repukes, I'm sure, because their other recent polls did.

[Beetwasher]

16. Yeah, You're probably Right

I guess there's also a 3% undecided in the "approval" numbers. So while his approval is at 46%, there's an additional 3% who aren't sure and some of them might vote for him bringing his vote % to 48%. Or maybe they just pulled this shit out of their ass? :shrug:

[Zero Gravitas]

25. 5 letters for you

The first one is an "N" and the last one is an "r" and there is "ade" in the middle.

[Beetwasher]

27. Nader Explains Kerry's Lower Number but Not Bush's

2 point difference between his approval (46%) and his elect (48%). At first glance it would seem that people who disapprove of his job will vote for him. I realized it's an erroneous conclusion, but it's not due to Nader but probably due to the undecideds in his Approval rating (51% disapprove, 46% approve, 3% must be unsure and of that 3% some will still vote for him).

That's my best guess as to this anamoly. Either that or Gallup is just making shit up, which wouldn't necessarily surprise me.

[diplomats]

30. The likely voter sample is a subset of the larger sample

and because more Repukes were almost certainly surveyed than the overall sample, I'll wager that his approval rating among the likely voter group is 50 percent or better. That would explain the anomaly.

[Beetwasher]

32. Yeah, Sorry, Should Have Included that Possibility Too!

That's probably more likely, or even still more likely is some mixture of both possibilities...

[0rganism]

44. Here's how it works: 48% of LIKELY voters compared to 44% of REGISTERED

Likely = those who voted in the last election, maybe in a high-turnout age group

If you read the whole article, you'll notice that among the REGISTERED voters, Kerry gained 3 points and bush lost 3 points.

"Kerry pollster Mark Mellman said the new poll shows Kerry gaining ground among registered voters, a bigger group than likely voters. Kerry went from 47% to 50% in a week; Bush went from 47% to 44%. Mellman said that suggests Kerry's ad campaign and events in Iraq are taking a toll on Bush. He also said the only president 'this far behind' at this point in an election year was Gerald Ford, and he lost."

[goclark]

7. Spin Spin Spin

Bill S. and Judy W. are trying to spin those poll numbers.
Bottom line, Bill said when a President gets 46% it is still possible to win but it is hard. Judy almost threw up with sadness.
Tried to smile but just couldn't do it.

Just wondering... I have noticed that the media whores are not as bold as they were two weeks ago. Are they beginning to realize that they better not piss us off too much? We need to hold their feet to the fire at every turn.

[diplomats]

12. Possible to win at 46 percent?

What are they smoking? As far as I know, no president has ever won with an approval rating under 50 percent.

[beyurslf]

18. Harry Truman

Approval rating in June 1948 was 39%.

<http://roperweb.ropercenter.uconn.edu/cgi-bin/hsrun.exe/Roperweb/PresJobRatings40/StateId/CVkKym8mlsMa-XlNcp-zLjCF0ym6m-4QIQ/HAHTpage/HS_presapproval_gallup_fH>

[diplomats]

21. I knew Truman wasn't popular, but I didn't what his rating was

Of course, Bush ain't no Truman. For Bush, the buck always stops with someone else.

Also, Truman won by running against a "do-nothing" GOP Congress. Bush can't blame the opposite party for his woes.

[jobycom]

33. Truman also won because of the block vote of the south

Something Bush can rely on, too.

THis election does have a chance of turning out that way.

[Zynx]

26. The Gallup Poll that year was way off.

It wasn't that Truman pulled off an upset. It was that the polls weren't right.

[Journeyman]

40. They didn't poll in 1864. . .

but Mr Lincoln's popularity was nigh non-existant that bloody summer.

[cybildisobedience]

15. I was wondering about the media ho's my own self

Timmy looked green around the gills yesterday -- almost like he just learned the biopsy is back and it's bad news.
The ONLY thing holding the chimp's presidency together has been the shameless whoring by the media. And if they finally figure it out.....
well, who knows, but it does provide some hope.

[yardwork]

23. Yes, the tide is turning.

The media in this country are whores to the almighty advertising dollar. They will support BushCo as long as it looks like that is the winning ticket. However, when it becomes apparent that BushCo will lose in November, the major corporations that support all these networks will start to shift their support to Kerry. The talk shows and "news" shows will follow suit.

It's a game of all or nothing, and BushCo is on their way out.

[boobooday]

13. Oh ho ho

Whatever happened to our "popular wartime president?" Are people really starting to realize that he is schmuck?

http://www.wgoeshome.com

[tom_paine]

17. LIES that just don't add up

You think anyone would notice?

[lfairban]

19. Bush Approval Rating Poll chart.

Does anyone know where to find a good Bush Approval Rating Poll chart? The most recent one I can find is:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/daily/graphics/bush_approval_021204.html

and it only goes through February.

[Atlanticist]

20. This is a great site - every poll you'll ever need

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm

[crossroads]

28. Great site, thanks!

:yourock:

[lfairban]

34. I didn't realize that one had graphs.

But they have a chart for the Gallop data.

[Teaser]

22. Note Kerry Leads Bush..

with registered voters. 50-44.

This far out from an election, registered voters are a better guage, cause you don't know who the likely voters are.

[crossroads]

29. Good point!

:headbang:

[goclark]

31. I don't understand

All I hear on the news is that "Kerry isn't getting his message out." Then it is "Flip Flops are sticking on Kerry."

What am I suppose to believe?

[4_Legs_Good]

35. What the F*CK is Kerry's problem???

This is driving me insane! Why the f*ck can't he tear this thing apart? Why is he still tied with this guy when his freaking approval rating is now WELL below 50%.

I swear if this guy blows this election, I will freaking blow my stack. Look at those numbers. Bush is down in every indicator. Even his terrorism numbers suck and STILL Kerry lags? This is rediculous.

It's by Kerry creaming Bush - big lead early on, that I think we have our best chance of taking back the Senate as well. People need to see the pendulum swinging.

Grrrrrrrrr

david

[othermeans]

36. Nader?

You think Nader is siphoning away enough votes?

[4_Legs_Good]

39. No no no no no!

NO!!!

Kerry should be up by 10 points at LEAST right now. Even when the polls don't take Nader into account, Bush is still ahead or just barely behind. Nader's gonna get 3-5% in polls and 1-2% in the General. We just need to accept that, which means that Kerry needs to increase the margin.

He should be DECIMATING Bush by now. You couldn't ask for a worse 2 months for Bush! Where's my 12% margin???

Where's our VP? How are those ads coming? $25Million in 2 or 3 weeks? We better see his numbers improve.

I'm going nuts here!

david

[0rganism]

42. He's going to wait until he's damn-well ready, that's what

At this point, I can only believe that John Kerry is playing political chess with these dorks, drawing their pieces and pawns out of safety, into vulnerable positions. He doesn't have as much money to play with, so he has to make every move count. The military records gambit, for example, was a stroke of brilliance.

[4_Legs_Good]

43. You're asking me to put a lot of trust in this guy...

... but one *should* trust one's President, I guess...

Still, I'm getting very nervous. All I hear is negative stuff about him, and once that stuff sinks in, it's hard to wash back out. I hope to goodness he's got a real plan and one that'll work...

*pacing back and forth*

david

[0rganism]

46. bush is in serious trouble: his disapproval # is above his approval #

It's only Gallup's definition of Likely voters that stands between Kerry and victory. Look at what the article says:

"Kerry pollster Mark Mellman said the new poll shows Kerry gaining ground among registered voters, a bigger group than likely voters. Kerry went from 47% to 50% in a week; Bush went from 47% to 44%. Mellman said that suggests Kerry's ad campaign and events in Iraq are taking a toll on Bush. He also said the only president 'this far behind' at this point in an election year was Gerald Ford, and he lost."

Zogby is already calling the advantage for Kerry at this point. Kerry has to be careful not to fuck up, tho. A premature attack ad campaign could cost him major bucks and risks a backfire. In contrast, no one makes the case against bush better than bush himself.

[4_Legs_Good]

48. Right, but shouldn't that mean that Kerry's good to go?

I mean it's not going to get too much worse for Bush than this - and if Kerry can't beat him in a poll now, what makes us think he can beat him in 5 months when the economy is on the mend and things in Iraq are looking up.

I'm not saying that those things *are* going to happen, but they may, and we *may* have the appearance of them without the actual events. The press may choose to cover something else. The job numbers may be artificially inflated. The Saudis may come to George Jr's rescue on oil prices.

I mean these last two months have been HORRIBLE for George Jr.

Plus I'm not so convinced on the $ issue anymore. I think Kerry has a lot of potential to match Bush. I'm astounded as to what's been raised in such a short time. People like me who have NEVER given political donations before George Jr. took the reigns are now opening our pocketbooks. Dean's Machine got money to pour in from small donors. MoveOn is making big buys and doing the dirty work.

Plus I want the Senate back this time too, if not the House. Having all 3 branches of government held by one power has proven to be too dangerous to our Republic.

I'm just getting very nervous, I guess...

david

[0rganism]

50. It's still too early to "go"

September and October are the time to go. Ads and quotations have a diminishing effect over time. The 10% boost he might get from a successful ad campaign could turn into 1-2% by November.

That's a common theory, anyway.

John Kerry could blow it big-time by "politicizing" bush's problem-du-jour at this point. On the other hand, if he waits for a couple months for event coverage to "solidify", he can capitalize on these issues by referring to them obliquely. There's no "statute of limitations" on attack ads.

[4_Legs_Good]

51. That's a good point, but...

doesn't he risk being caricatured by the Republicans. Plus he's not holding back on the $ at the moment. $25M is the largest buy ever, isn't it?

I understand that trying to politicize the current problems would be bad, and in bad taste, to be honest, but shouldn't drop in Bush's numbers translate into gains in Kerry's? The only reason I can see that they don't translate is because the Bush attack squad has successfully defined Kerry as a non-candidate. That's the danger I see.

Plus I don't understand the desire to wait on the VP choice. His numbers are going to go up naturally with the Convention and drop with the RNConvention. He can't wait on a VP until after the convention. It's either now or in June. Why not now and have two voices out there?

I hate waiting... (I do no espose you could espeed things up?)

david

[Lorien]

52. Kerry doesn't offer a strong alternative

My district went for Gore in the last election, but I've seen COUNTLESS Bush* bumper stickers and only three for Kerry (that includes my own) in the past few months. Kerry isn't "likable" to most people ("just another smarmy politician" say most non-Bush voters that I know), his message isn't clearly distinguishable from Bush's*, he simply isn't inspiring. Frankly, it's only my through revulsion at the thought of another four years of Bush* that keeps me working for the guy-I can't say that I find Kerry at all appealing when he stands alone. Last night, I saw a Kerry ad that stated "He broke with his own party to vote for a balanced budget". WTF? I'm a lifelong dem and I'm insulted that his ad would insinuate that I'm not "pro-balanced budget"! What else was hidden in that vote that other dems disagreed with? With friends like these....

Bottom line; Kerry needs to kick the DLC out of his campaign and become the anti-Bush*, otherwise, Bush's* low approval numbers won't help us in the least.

[DemosthenesOfTheWest]

37. The cynic in me has to ask how it can still be so high.

But this is good news. The trend is in the right direction.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[0rganism]

41. That's GREAT NEWS for John Kerry

51% disapprove of chimp. This is not going to change a whole lot between now and election day, even with more wars and terrorism. bush will have to capture Osama and bring gas prices way down to even have a chance of breaking 55% again.

John Kerry is basically tied with a once-popular incumbant, after spending a fraction of the advertising money. While the true ad wars have yet to begin, he's in an excellent position to call out the GOP attackers for their rank hypocrisy -- e.g. John Kerry's votes "against weapons systems" were part of DICK CHENEY's requisitions during his time as SoD under bush the Elder. When he starts the campaign in ernest, a lot of things are going to collapse out from under the GOP machine.

[West Coast Democrat]

47. This is excellent news, given this is a Gallup Poll

which tend to give Bush a 5-10 pt boost.

[loudsue]

49. DO NOT despair, DUers! Bush will be toast after this summer.

Things are just heating up against him...his cover will soon be gone, and everyone will know that the prince was never wearing any clothes to begin with.

John Kerry will come forward and make us all proud.

:kick::kick:

[DrBB]

53. "Likely voters" is a deeply suspect category

That Bush "lead" is based on preferences of "likely voters." Who is a "likely voter"? A likely voter is defined as someone who voted in 2000. But there are numerous indications that voter turnout will be much higher particularly among anti-Bush voters and Dems, who are vastly more energized than they were in 2000.

Anyway, at this stage an incumbent's approvals should be in the high 50s if he's going to be reelected.