STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 27 May

[ozymandius]

Thursday May 27, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 242
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 167 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 220 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 434
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 917
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 18
Recent Acquisitions: Jeff Skilling
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON May 26, 2004

Dow... 10,109.89 -7.73 (-0.08%)
Nasdaq... 1,976.15 +11.50 (+0.59%)
S&P 500... 1,114.94 +1.89 (+0.17%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.67% -0.05 (-1.12%)
Gold future... 388.30 -0.30 (-0.08%)


|||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[Maeve]

1. Thursday reports

Preliminary GDP for the first quarter due at 8:30 (expected to be up around 4.5%). Initial Claims expected to drop from last week's 345K to the 330-335K range.

I won't be around much today--Hubby is taking the day off and we're heading down to the Hicking County hills for a day in the woods.

[loudsue]

2. Enjoy your day in the woods, Maeve!

:hi: It's sure a beautiful morning here in central Georgia...I hope your weather is nice there!

We'll miss your input today!

:kick:

[ozymandius]

4. Good morning Maeve!

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

I hope you have a wonderful time communing with nature.

See you tomorrow.

Ozy :hi:

[Maeve]

10. Okay, so the figures came in higher than expected

Last week's revised up to 347K, this week's coming in at 344K (higher than the 330-335K expected)
http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/27/news/economy/jobless_claims/index.htm

Well, it isn't as bad as the nasty numbers we were seeing for so long.
Time for me to get out of here. Enjoy the casino! :hi:

[ozymandius]

3. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Economy Showing Signs of Weakness

Stock prices were held in check today after yesterday’s gains and money moved into U.S. Treasuries with the release of negative economic data from the Commerce Department. The headlines from Reuters said, “Durable Goods Orders Sink Sharply in April” and “New Home Sales Tumble 11.8 Percent.” Orders for durable goods fell 2.9% while the forecast called for a decline of only 0.2%. Some analysts suggest this is simply a correction from strong sales in February and March, but it is also noteworthy that April was the largest decline since September 2002. The second piece of news showed sales of new homes dropping to an annual rate of 1.093 million units while analysts were forecasting a drop to 1.20 million after the record high of 1.239 million in March. Reuters said, “April’s rate was the lowest level of new home sales since November in what is normally the peak season for real estate sales. The decline – the largest monthly drop since January 1994 – could signal the end of a housing boom fueled by the lowest mortgage interest rates since the early 1960’s.” We clearly have to wonder if the declining trends will continue to show a weaker economy moving forward, or if the numbers for April are just a hiccup in an ongoing recovery. I suspect the economy will weaken unless we can get further stimulus from increased government spending, new tax rebates, and more monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

...

Watch the Pattern & the Spin

Since I usually write every Wednesday, which happens to be the most common day for auctions, I have made a consistent observation. It seems more obvious when the bigger auctions take place such as the quarterly refunding that usually take place on a Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday right in the middle of the quarter. The last one happened Tuesday 5/11 through Thursday 5/13. In the weeks prior to the auction we seem to get really positive economic news with new jobs, good sales numbers, and strong growth overall along with worries of inflation. This would cause bond prices to drop making them more desirable as the auction approaches. The markets go into a coma during the debt sales, and then voila!! Like magic we start getting negative economic reports such as weaker job numbers, poor sales for durable goods, bad housing numbers, and threats of potential terrorist attacks that would all be good for bonds, pushing prices higher. The lower yields also work to weaken the dollar. The spin we should start to hear is all about how a lower dollar along with lower interest rates will be good for stocks by improving exports and adding to corporate earnings.

Spin on Commodities

Lately we have been hearing about all the pressure on commodity prices and specifically building materials due to the booming economy in China. The home building industry here in the US has certainly added some competition for available resources, but there is also added demand from the war efforts. According to the World Affairs Brief by Joel Skousen, “Building materials are also in short supply primarily because of the huge increase in US military purchases of materials heading for Iraq. The US has 14 US military bases under construction in Iraq, plus hundreds of Iraqi reconstruction projects. So, not only is the American taxpayer footing the bill for the war directly, but he is having to pay billions in accumulated higher prices for American products.” We are paying for the bombs and bullets to blow them up, paying to rebuild the destruction and paying for facilities to leave our troops in the desert. It’s too bad we can’t spend the money on more productive purposes here at home.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[teryang]

5. Interesting post

It's a downward slide, with profit taking by the insiders.

[UpInArms]

6. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 89.40 Change -0.32 (-0.36%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/102055/content.asp?menu=market&dia=2752004

Daily Market Briefing 27/05/04

The US jobless claims will be watched carefully, especially with attention starting to turn towards next week's crucial US employment figures.

There is scope for a further near-term dollar retreat due to caution ahead of crucial economic data next week and doubts over the pace of Fed tightening. Some renewed interest in high-yield currencies will tend to reinforce this trend. The most likely outcome is for a gradual Euro strengthening towards 1.2225, with the dollar reaction at the 1.2225-1.2250 resistance band crucial for medium-term prospects.

The Euro pushed to a new monthly high of 1.2170 in early Europe on Thursday. Tensions will increase ahead of the important economic data next week due to doubts that the Fed will tighten in June, especially in view of high oil prices. A strong employment report next week would, however, be likely to revive interest in the dollar.

The US data did not offer any support to the US currency with durable goods orders falling by 2.9% in April after a revised 5.7% increase in March, although the underlying figures were still strong. There was also a 11.8% drop in new home sales, the latest decline since January 1994 and there will be some fears that the rise in long-term interest rates will start to damage the housing sector.

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/content/2025/content.asp?menu=market&dia=2752004

U.S. FOREX SUMMARY

The U.S. dollar resumed its decline Wednesday against major currencies as economic data showed a significant drop in durable goods during the month of April, suggesting a significant slide in manufacturing activity. US durable goods fell by 2.9 percent in April, compared with a revised rise of 5.7 percent in March. Earlier, the US dollar had began falling, hitting three week lows against the euro and yen amid concerns about high oil prices, held above $41 a barrel, and the impact on the US economy. Investors are also worrying whether high oil prices will shift the Feds mindset from an aggressive outlook on raising interest rates, to maintaining them the same at a 46-year low of 1.0 percent. The decline in the dollar this week is suspected to also be fueled by speculative players re- establishing short dollar positions on the belief that an interest rate hike has already been priced in.

In Europe, the euro traded up against the greenback following a bigger than expected drop in US durable goods orders. The focus continues to be on high oil prices, increasing concerns that it could slow global growth and result in a modest rate hike, if any, by the Federal Reserve. With an empty economic calendar in the Eurozone, the driver continues to be high oil prices, and durable good numbers out of the US.

...more...

How can we have MaeveDay without Maeve?

Well, I guess we'll do our best to cover the unemployment numbers and hold our puzzles for tomorrow :D

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[54anickel]

12. Boy that 3 and 5 day chart on the Buck look nasty. Lookie at gold

again! At this rate it may even break the old $6.00 rule! :evilgrin:

Futures for the stock market are still rising nicely though. Based on - oh, I don't know the "great day" yesterday and nice gains overseas again. :eyes:


9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +5.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. The futures market lifts to its best levels of the morning and continues to point to a higher open in the cash market. The early favorable bias is largely an extension of the positive tone set by the market in yesterday's session, although upbeat trade in overseas markets is also a contributing factor.

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5. Futures indications are little changed on the heels of the Initial Claims and GDP data. S&P futures dip 0.3 points; Nasdaq futures drop 0.5 points. Accordingly, the cash market remains set for a higher open.

8:25AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.0. The Initial Claims report and the preliminary GDP for Q1, along with the Chain Deflator, will be reported at 8:30 ET. The consensus estimate for the Initial Claims is 335K on the heels of last week's 345K. The GDP report is expected to come in at 4.5% (prior reading 4.2%), with the Chain Deflator at 2.5%.

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +4.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.5. The futures market is trading above fair value on the heels of yesterday's session in which the major averages managed to close near their better levels of the day, despite sizeable gains in the prior session. This morning's favorable bias is being supported by upbeat trade in the overseas markets, where the European DAX and the Asian Hang Seng are trading up 1.1% and 2.5%, respectively.

[UpInArms]

13. dollar not holding onto much

Last trade 89.27 Change -0.45 (-0.50%)

did you see the CNN story regarding Meanspin?

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x585905

[54anickel]

17. HA! Independent Fed my arse! Old Meanspin is probably giving

them advice on where the economic reports need to come in for him to work his "magic". I can just hear Shrubco, "Just tell us what you want to hear and we'll take care of the rest". :eyes:

[UpInArms]

7. U.S. new jobless claims up, 4-wk avg dips to 4-year low

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38120.3551851852-814456202&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=word&value=unemployment&categories=&archive=pulsetrue&dist=RegSignIn

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- The number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time rose in the latest week while the average number of initial claims over the past four weeks fell to its lowest level since the month of the last presidential election, the Labor Department said Thursday. First-time claims in the week ended May 8 rose by 13,000 to 331,000, while the average number of initial claims over the past four weeks fell by 7,750 to 335,750, the department said. The four-week average is the lowest level since the week ended Nov. 25, 2000. Economists say the four-week average is more accurate than volatile weekly number, which is subject to large revisions.

[Frodo]

8. It's going up next week.

Next week is when the 315k number drops off the rolling average. It's highly unlikely that we're going to see that again soon - so expect the average to go up 5-7k.

[UpInArms]

9. ANALYSIS-Record US debts mean milder Fed rate hikes ahead

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5266137

WASHINGTON, May 26 (Reuters) - Record levels of U.S. household debt mean the Federal Reserve won't need to step as hard on the interest rate brakes as financial markets currently think to slow spending and keep inflation in check.

U.S. interest rate futures expect a steep tightening cycle to begin next month, adding 300 basis points by the end of next year in a rerun of 1994 when rates went to 6 from 3 percent.

But this time around, the mountain of debt weighing on U.S. households may mean the Fed can keep a "measured" pace in raising interest rates to dampen spending.

Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan recently repeated he thinks the American public can handle its debts. However, that does not mean the high debt-service burden won't help to make monetary policy more effective.

"This time around, consumer finances are much more vulnerable ... the Fed is not going to have to do as much as markets are pricing in," said Dave Rosenberg, chief economist at Merrill Lynch in New York.

The Fed, insiders say, is aware of the big changes in the country's debt profile with many more low-income households joining the credit market, and this may make a difference.

...more...

[ozymandius]

11. Have a great day folks.

My day away from the computer is starting early. Enjoy the numbers show.

Ozy :hi:

[54anickel]

14. Will History Rhyme?

http://www.prudentbear.com/midweekanalysis.asp

Earnings announcements for the first quarter are mostly complete. As of last Friday, 97% of S&P 500 companies had reported first quarter earnings. Seventy-four percent of S&P 500 companies beat estimates with only 14% missing Wall Street’s projections. Earnings for the S&P 500 rose 27.5% from last year and revenues were up 11.8%. The outlook for second quarter earnings is looking better. There are 161 S&P 500 companies that have already provided guidance for the second quarter with 45% indicating that second quarter results will be better than anticipated and only 35% guiding lower. This compares favorably v. the 33% that issued positive guidance last quarter and 47% guiding earnings lower. Estimates for second quarter earnings growth have jumped over the past three week from 16.8% to 18.1% for the S&P 500. At the beginning of the year, earnings growth estimates stood at 13.6% for the second quarter. Most of this increase is attributable to the energy sector. With the price of oil trading above $40 per barrel, analysts have increased second quarter earnings growth estimates from 8% to 19% this month.

With earnings out of the way, economic data will be one of the central drivers for the stock market, especially since investors are will be handicapping the rising interest rate cycle. Practically everyone is expecting the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points at the June 30 meeting. Recent strength in banking stocks have convinced some investors that stocks have priced in this initial tightening of 25 basis points. There is little chance that the Federal Reserve will raise rates by half a point, but if the economic data points to a weaker economy, especially the employment reports, than this 25 basis point increase could be delayed until August.


There was a couple economic data items released on Wednesday that at first blush appeared to signal that the economy was slowing. The month-over-month change in durable goods orders fell 2.9% and excluding transportation, orders fell 2.1%. This was well below expectations of declines of -.9% and 1.0% respectively. The decline is due to the strong orders received in March. In fact the March data was revised significantly higher. March durable goods orders were revised to an increase of 5.7% from an original increase of 3.4% and excluding transportation orders were revised to up 6.3% from up 3.3%. The increase in March orders excluding transportation was the largest increase since April 1991. So it should not shock anyone that order declined from these elevated levels and it does show that the economy is falling off a cliff. Besides March data being revised significantly higher, the year-over-year increase in durable goods orders was 13.0%. This was the third consecutive month of double digit year-over-year growth in orders and shipments. Inventories are starting to bottom. On a month-over-month basis, inventories have increased in each of the past five months, but are still down from a year ago. The year-over-year decline is down to only 0.5% which is much better than the 2% to 3% declines that were happening as recent at February. Economists have been waiting for the inventory build that will not come. The steady increase in unfilled orders might fuel companies to start carrying more inventories if suppliers become unable to ship products in a timely manner. Unfilled orders increased 7.3% from last April.

New home sales dropped 11.8% in April from the previous month to the lowest level since November last year. While the news caused homebuilding stocks to lose just over 1% as measured by the S&P 500 Homebuilding Index, the report does not signal that the housing market has dramatically slowed. The decline is from the all-time record rate of home sales set in March. In fact, there have only been nine months that new home sales were higher than in April and all those have been in the last 10 months. Additionally, the median home price increased to $221,200, well ahead of the previous record of $212,500 set in February this year and 16.7% higher than last April.

more...

[54anickel]

15. Orders for Durable Goods Fall in April

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-econ27may27,1,5147417.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Orders to factories for big-ticket goods fell sharply in April after posting a strong gain in the previous month, reflecting the sometimes bumpy recovery navigated by the nation's manufacturers.

The Commerce Department reported Wednesday that orders for durables — costly manufactured goods expected to last at least three years — dropped by 2.9% last month, marking the biggest decline since September 2002.

But April's slackening in demand for big-ticket goods came after sizable gains in February and March, when orders went up by 3.9% and a strong 5.7%, respectively.

In other economic news, new-home sales fell by 11.8% in April from the month before to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.09 million units, the lowest level since November, the department said in a second report.

more...

[54anickel]

16. U.S. First-Quarter Gross Domestic Product Grew at a 4.4% Rate

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=abXZFe6W7vaQ&refer=home

May 27 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy grew at a 4.4 percent annual pace from January through March, faster than the estimated last month, as businesses replenished inventories, government spending rose and home construction accelerated. Corporate profits over the last year increased by the most in two decades.

The revised reading on gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services produced, compares with the advance estimate of 4.2 percent annual rate issued last month, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Profits, reported for the first time today, jumped 31.6 percent in the 12 months ended in March, the biggest increase since the first quarter of 1984.

Increasing sales and profits have given companies such as Intel Corp. and Texas Instruments Inc. the confidence to ramp up production and boost inventories. A rebound in manufacturing and more investment in new equipment will enable the economy to keep growing for the rest of the year.

``Rising profits give businesses sufficient room to continue to expand capacity and hire,'' said Peter Kretzmer, a senior economist at Banc of America Securities in New York, before the report. ``We have moved clearly into a self-sustaining expansion.''

snip>

President George W. Bush is counting on an acceleration of growth to spur hiring in the months leading up to the U.S. elections in November. Polls this week showed a majority of voters disapprove of the way Bush is handling the economy as the president's job-approval ratings fell to the lowest during his presidency. :eyes:

more...

[UpInArms]

18. dollar dropping like a rock

Last trade 88.97 Change -0.75 (-0.84%)

wonder if the BoJ will come riding in soon?

[54anickel]

19. First for dollar interest rate swap trading

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1084907819400&p=1012571727201

Barclays Capital is launching electronic trading for US dollar interest rate swaps in a move that should help bring pricing transparency to the opaque market.


The product will be the first single-dealer platform to offer the products electronically to the US market and follows the successful roll-out of sister products last year for euro and sterling contracts.

Electronic trading has begun to enter the swaps markets as a number of simpler contracts have become standardised and suitable for trading on a fixed system.

Barclays said its product would allow trades to be executed in less than a second. In many cases the deal would be electronically processed by both sides with no need for human intervention, helping to cut costs.

The market for swaps, which offer the parties involved the chance to hedge interest rate risk, has grown rapidly in recent years. By end-2003, there were an estimated $46,200bn of US dollar contracts outstanding - up from just under $14,000bn five years previously.

more...

[UpInArms]

20. Markets open and "thrilled"!

Dow 10,176.53 +66.64 (+0.66%)
Nasdaq 1,985.48 +9.33 (+0.47%)
S&P 500 1,120.58 +5.64 (+0.51%)
10-Yr Bond 4.639% -0.032

[54anickel]

24. Too many 6's in those DOW figures there.

666 :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

21. Wellington Faces Probe on Trading

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-wrap27.1may27,1,1401439.story?coll=la-headlines-business

Wellington Management Co., one of the biggest U.S. money managers and an advisor to a number of Vanguard Group mutual funds, said Wednesday that federal regulators were investigating it, though not for the type of improper trading that has rocked the fund industry since September.

A source said the probe focused on how the Boston-based company allocated initial public offerings and trades of large stock blocks among clients.

"We were informed by the Securities and Exchange Commission several months ago that it had initiated an investigation related to our trading practices and procedures. We do not believe this inquiry has anything to do with market timing or late trading," Wellington spokeswoman Lisa Finkel said.

snip>

Regulators have long worried that conflicts could arise and that some clients got better treatment because managers tended to earn much more for running hedge funds — private pools for wealthy investors — than retail mutual funds.

more...

[54anickel]

22. Increases in Health Care Premiums Are Slowing

Guess they have to actually compete now for the few folks that can even afford the coverage anymore. :eyes:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/27/business/27care.html

Health insurance premiums are expected to rise up to 10 percent this year, well below the annual increases of 14 to 18 percent in the last few years but still more than double the overall inflation rate.

While the slowdown in the rate of increase will provide a bit of relief to employers and their insured workers, the rise in premiums means that the price of health care coverage will remain a burden.

"Ten percent is still a lot," said Louise Probst, the executive director of the St. Louis Area Business and Health Coalition, which represents 40 large and small employers. "While any reduction is good, increases of 10 percent will still mean virtually doubling our health care costs every seven years."

snip>

Adding to the competition among insurers is the dwindling number of jobs in manufacturing and other fields that traditionally offered generous employer health plans. New jobs tend to be in small businesses and service industries likely to provide skimpier benefits, if any at all. That means the insurers are more likely to be fighting over customers - and competing on the basis of price.

[54anickel]

23. EXPORTED INFLATION & CRISES

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/willie052504.html

Inflation not only causes erosion to stored wealth, it creates false wealth like a cancer. Worse still, when it is exported, international crises inevitably occur. In recent years, extraordinary measures have been used to hang onto to the alpha dog position. Ever reliable inflation and debt have been the hallmark devices utilized, but unfortunately they exist as weapons of mass destruction. Many authentic factors enabled the United States to attain a world leadership position. The "arsenal of democracy" was quite the reality during World War II as our massive resources, industrial capacity, and manpower were marshaled in the defense of freedom, against totalitarianism. The USA prevailed, which set the stage for our nation to rise to geopolitical leader, economic leader, and financial leader, not to mention cold war military leader. Times have changed; the empire is fading. What the heck, let's mix metaphors. The inflation chickens are finally coming home to roost, winging on both inflationary and deflationary winds. At the same time, the timed sequence of recent crises is rising in tempo. We lost all control all through the 1980 decade, and after 1995, when crises occurred.

One by one, imperial advantages are being chipped away. Over a decade ago, the US Economy became a net importer of critical resource supplies, most notably crude oil. Other important and strategic metals such as copper and titanium and cobalt now enter our country as raw materials. We still dig up the earth's bounty, but not enough to be net neutral. Beginning in the 1970 decade, and rapidly completing the process in the 1980 decade, our industrial base has been abandoned as manufacturing processes were dispatched offshore, primarily to Asia, but also to Mexico. Lower labor costs were the attraction, and facilitated the offshore movement. We still produce end products, but not enough to be net neutral. The advent of our technological developments, worldwide computer network connectivity, improved foreigner science education and English speaking, all render our service manpower as vulnerable. US labor costs are a quantum level higher. Our sacrosanct service sector, on an accelerated basis, is now being sidestepped under the directive of cost cuts. Service functions, from low-level call centers to high-level skilled operations such as software design and accounting, are being outsourced to Asia, mainly China and India. Lower labor costs are again the attraction, and provide impetus for the outsource movement. We still provide wide-ranging services, enough to be net positive by about $5 billion steadily per month. The manufactured goods side of the equation reveals gaps almost ten times this size, to produce a net $41 to 43 billion monthly deficit. We have made big strides to become foreign dependent in recent years. Critical industries such as steel and automobiles are losing ground, and capital itself is imported on a grand scale. Decline of critical industries plainly jeopardizes our national security.

America has had to resort to inflation, leverage, and financial engineering in order to create wealth and remain as the predominant world power and largest world economy. Its real engines of wealth (machines and people) have been either abandoned or circumvented. Let us not overlook how the USDollar currency, health care costs, higher corporate taxation, and more obstructive environmental regulations add to the cost of doing business within our borders. Now we resort to phony financial engines to produce what we falsely claim as wealth. While dependence has impinged our national security, we boast of working as the world economic engine. We depend upon foreign credit supply. Since the fall of the Soviet Union, no nation or region can challenge our military power. Military might plays a role with the annexation of Iraq, and the squatter claim on its oil supply. We seem to export crises with impunity, or else under the cover of ignorance. Few among the economic expert brain trust even detect a problem, at home or abroad. In fact, they recognize inflation, debt, and negative real interest rates as potentially a problem, but make no connection to the crises.

POLITICS OF COLLUSION & DENIAL

more...

[54anickel]

25. Gotta step out for a bit again today. Have a great time at the casino!

I should be able to make it back for the after-lunch moves. :hi:

[Teaser]

26. Anyone know where I can find oil price info?

preferably info that updates continuously?

[UpInArms]

27. here's a link

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_CLN4

Last trade 40.70 Change 0.00 (0.00%)
Settle 40.70 Settle Time 14:46
Open 41.15 Previous Close 40.70
High 41.65 Low 40.52
Volume 1,711 Open Int. 239933

[UpInArms]

28. Market Numbers and blather at 11:53 EST

Dow 10,193.07 +83.18 (+0.82%)
Nasdaq 1,979.62 +3.47 (+0.18%)
S&P 500 1,119.43 +4.49 (+0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.627% -0.044

11:30AM: The market maintains its positive bias, but has backed off its earlier highs... The decline is being spearheaded by the hardware, biotech, and banking sectors... The latter group is showing moderate losses after trading in positive territory earlier in the session... Note that the banking sector plays an influential role in determining market direction and often leads the broader market... Accordingly, the blue-chip averages will find it difficult to advance if the banking sector doesn't reverse its losses or extends them further...NYSE Adv/Dec 2318/750, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1741/1084

11:00AM: The Dow is trending sideways along its session highs, while the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq are slightly off their respective best levels of the day... In a market that has been obsessed with high oil prices, today's dip in the price of the commodity is encouraging and is supporting the advance... Specifically, the price of crude oil is down $1.10 at $39.60/bbl, its lowest level since May 11... The two-week low came on expectations that OPEC will increase production quotas at its June 3 meeting...

Also, contributing to the decline are comments by Energy Secretary Abraham indicating that given the high prices major non-OPEC oil producers are likely to increase output...NYSE Adv/Dec 2290/707, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1783/984

10:30AM: The early gains are extended, with the Dow continuing to spearhead the way higher... In the advance, the S&P 500 has lifted above its 50-day simple moving average at 1117, inciting buying efforts in the broader market... Remember that the Nasdaq closed above its 50-day simple moving average in yesterday's session, while all of the major averages are currently trading above their respective 200-day simple moving averages...

Dollar continues to slide

Last trade 88.62 Change -1.10 (-1.23%)

[Frodo]

29. Banking sector isn't going to "reverse it's losses" today.

The last couple days saw BIG runnups on a few of the alrger banks on takeover speculation. Other banks went up largely in sympathy.

That seems to have cooled off some today (and a few banks that have run up 5-15% are down 2-3% today).

If the banking secotr is leading the amrket today - the market is going down.

[UpInArms]

30. I wouldn't do this if you hadn't picked at

my typos, but are you dislexic today?

alrger banks and banking secotr is leading the amrket today?

[Frodo]

41. ?huH

Yeah. Pretty common for me when I'm in a rush.

[UpInArms]

31. Market Numbers and blather at 1:09 EST

Dow 10,168.15 +58.26 (+0.58%)
Nasdaq 1,970.49 -5.66 (-0.29%)
S&P 500 1,116.12 +1.18 (+0.11%)
10-Yr Bond 4.618% -0.053

12:55PM: The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are vacillating around their respective session lows, while the Dow is able to maintain the bulk of its earlier gains... In its decline, the Nasdaq made a successful test of its 50-day simple moving average at 1972... Remember that the tech composite closed above the technically-significant level in yesterday's session... Currently, the Nasdaq is flirting with the support level and its failure would likely incite selling pressure in the broader market...

The S&P 500, in the meantime, is testing the support at its 50-say simple moving average at 1117, which it had cleared earlier in today's session...NYSE Adv/Dec 2038/1143, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1448/1526

12:30PM: With volume on the light side of things ahead of Memorial Day weekend, which makes the market prone to wide swings and puts in question the market's commitment to the move higher, the market has backed off its earlier highs... The Nasdaq, which has underperformed the S&P 500 and the Dow on a relative basis through the entirety of the session, has erased the entirety of its earlier gains and is currently showing mild losses due to struggling biotech and hardware sectors...

Among the laggards in the hardware group are Seagate Technology (STX 12.61 -0.73) and Network Appliance (NTAP 19.66 -0.47)...NYSE Adv/Dec 2077/1072, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1464/1483

[54anickel]

32. 1:11 numbers and da-yada

Dow 10,169.22 +59.33 (+0.59%)
Nasdaq 1,970.64 -5.51 (-0.28%)
S&P 500 1,116.24 +1.30 (+0.12%)
10-yr Bond 4.615% -0.056
30-yr Bond 5.338% -0.038

NYSE Volume 826,638,000
Nasdaq Volume 990,812,000

12:55PM: The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 are vacillating around their respective session lows, while the Dow is able to maintain the bulk of its earlier gains... In its decline, the Nasdaq made a successful test of its 50-day simple moving average at 1972... Remember that the tech composite closed above the technically-significant level in yesterday's session... Currently, the Nasdaq is flirting with the support level and its failure would likely incite selling pressure in the broader market...
The S&P 500, in the meantime, is testing the support at its 50-say simple moving average at 1117, which it had cleared earlier in today's session...NYSE Adv/Dec 2038/1143, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1448/1526

12:30PM: With volume on the light side of things ahead of Memorial Day weekend, which makes the market prone to wide swings and puts in question the market's commitment to the move higher, the market has backed off its earlier highs... The Nasdaq, which has underperformed the S&P 500 and the Dow on a relative basis through the entirety of the session, has erased the entirety of its earlier gains and is currently showing mild losses due to struggling biotech and hardware sectors...

Among the laggards in the hardware group are Seagate Technology (STX 12.61 -0.73) and Network Appliance (NTAP 19.66 -0.47)...NYSE Adv/Dec 2077/1072, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1464/1483

[UpInArms]

33. a high-five for my "twin" :)

[54anickel]

34. Now THAT'S a cute picture.

[54anickel]

35. Gold has shot its bolt

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/325328.htm

JOHANNESBURG (Mineweb.com) -- Jeff Christian, the veteran metals analyst at New York’s CPM group, is one of the gold market’s unabashed contrarians who has seen his fair share of peaks and troughs over more than two decades in the business. He is also no stranger to confrontation or controversy, which is why he makes no bones about his belief that the gold market shot its bolt in the first half of this year.

“A price over $400/oz is not sustainable in the long run unless the world goes to hell in a handbasket. The average long-term clearing price of gold is between $320/oz and $380/oz,” says Christian.

He does concede that a price of $400/oz or more could prevail from time to time in the “short term”. That short term could last as long as four or five years before long-term fundamentals reassert themselves and drag the price back into his moribund range.

But first the good news. In a report that Christian is delivering to South African clients on behalf of local broker Noah Financial, he says the market is primed for a spike to around $420/oz at the end of this month. The upward move will be triggered by a long position on Comex (16,3 million ounces) that dwarfs actual Comex-reported gold stocks of only 4,3 million ounces.

“This ratio could indicate another upward move for gold prices, similar to the upward spikes that occurred as the market moved toward delivery of the December, February and then April contracts,” he says.

But he reckons that’s about as good as it is going to get.....

more...

[54anickel]

37. Gold still glitters

http://www.morningstar.ca/globalhome/Industry/News.asp?Articleid=ArticleID520200415501

Short-term indicators point to higher price for bullion.



One thing is certain about gold: The price will be volatile.

Of course some gold bugs will flip that statement and argue that it is the value of currency that is volatile and that gold has a relatively constant purchasing power.

Supposedly a measure of purchasing power of an ounce of gold over the centuries has been the price of a top quality man's suit. I don't know what Christopher Columbus paid for his outfits but I seem to remember that I paid a lot more than $35 for a decent suit in the late 1960s when the gold price was still fixed at US$35 an ounce. I definitely paid less than $850 for a suit in early 1980 when speculators propelled bullion to a record level in U.S. dollar terms.

Gold was trading at $382 recently. Based on prices at some of the high end men's wear stores, gold prices should be heading higher in the near term, providing an opportunity for investors to profit.

If you don't buy the suit argument, there are some other reasons for expecting higher gold prices. Near term, a lot has to do with the weakness in the U.S. dollar and worries about energy prices. Expectations of a weaker dollar are bound to send some of the money coming out of U.S. dollar investments into bullion.

more...

[54anickel]

39. Gold seen soaring to more than $1,000 an ounce by end of decade

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/ArticleNews/TPStory/LAC/20040526/RGOLD26/TPBusiness/MoneyMarkets

TORONTO -- The price of gold could soar to more than $1,000 (U.S.) an ounce by the end of the decade, John Embry, chief investment strategist and portfolio manager at Sprott Asset Management Inc., told analysts yesterday.

The bullish forecast made at a Toronto Society of Financial Analysts meeting in Toronto came as bullion has slumped to $388.30 an ounce from more than $426 early this year.

The growing deficits in the United States will eventually result in the creditor nations deciding that they no longer want to hold U.S. dollars, Mr. Embry said. "When that day comes, the U.S. dollar is going to come under incredible downside pressure," he said. "The U.S. debt situation is unprecedented for a mature nation." By the end of this year, Mr. Embry expects gold to reach $500 an ounce.

David Chapman, a technical analyst at Union Securities Ltd., also thinks gold is headed for $500 an ounce. "I believe it could still get there this year despite the pullback," he told the analysts.

more...

[Frodo]

42. End of the decade?

I thought it was by mid January?



End of the decade is much more reasonable. Though I doubt it will go much above $500.

[54anickel]

44. It's one of those things that can't be predicted without a crystal ball.

I did see one analysis that actually made some sense in predicting a future gold price based on the historic inflation figures and comparable price increases in other metals and commoditites thru the years. His prediction made sense if the market was allowed to find a fair market price rather than constantly being manipulated as it has been thru the years. Of course first you have to see an end to the manipulation for good - which he said was highly improbable.

But this article sounds more like just wishful thinking and pulling a number out of the air. If things get REALLY ugly, it could go even higher and faster. If things keep plodding along as they are, it could go nowhere. No one knows, it's all speculation.

[54anickel]

36. Barclays gets gold fix seat

http://www.mineweb.net/fast_news/325271.htm

Barclays Capital, the Barclays Bank investment banking division, has bought the seat in the London Gold Market Fixing, vacated by NM Rothschild and Sons just over a month ago, says Reuters.

The amount paid for the seat was not disclosed, but analysts told the newservice that seats have been bought in the past for around £1 million. HSBC, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank and Scotia-Mocatta hold the other four seats.

Since Rothschild’s withdrawal on April 16, after chairing the fix for 84 years, it has gone through some radical changes. The fixing is now done twice daily over the telephone by the member firms. Previously, members would gather in the London offices to fix the gold price. The chairmanship will also be rotated annually, starting with Scotia-Mocatta from May 5.

[54anickel]

38. Gold vs. Fiat: Demanding A Divorce!

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/wallenwein/wallenwein052704.html

snip>
Divorced - But Still 'Friends'

So, in essence, the world's nations and their citizens want to be able to save something other than the dollar, something that has great value and that doesn't lose that value - like gold.

At the same time, however, they want to be able to use fiat in order to trade their worldly things, because it's so convenient and so easily manipulated.

Naturally, the US has the most to lose in such an arrangement. What it stands to lose is its current privilege to simply loan into existence whatever currency requirements there are for the goods it wants from the world. That explains why the US is fighting this trend tooth and nail.

What the world (outside the US) appears to be moving towards is an arrangement where cash will be used for spending, while gold will be used for saving.

What needs to happen for this to occur is expressed in the title of this article: gold needs to petition the court of high finance and the jury of the public for a divorce from fiat. In other words, gold needs to be totally disentangled from all officially decreed and controlled national currency involvement in terms of any fixed fiat to gold price relationship.

Nothing else will do the trick.

Why not? Because we have already seen what happens to a gold standard when the government that decreed it gets into trouble.

No More Gold Standards

Every time a war was fought in the twentieth century, and more money was required to pay for it than the economy would produce, governments conveniently got off the gold standard to 'sock it' to their citizens in the name of national defense and public policy. Those governments cranked up the currency printing presses and ran them until they quit to allow them to deficit-spend their way out of the war debt.

snip>

The euro has nothing to lose by letting gold rise. One clear sign that this is so lies in the fact that the euro system values its collective gold reserves at market price - whatever that may be. This shows more than just their concept that an ounce of gold is worth more to them than $41.22. It shows a definite philosophical, psychological, and especially political break from the American notion that, in order for their fiat currency to prosper, gold must be 'controlled.'

It shows a willingness to let gold rise to whatever price it may, because the euro is not competing with gold in its function as a savings-medium, as the dollar is. The euro is not even competing with gold as a currency. History since 1971 has already proven beyond a doubt that there is virtually endless demand for fiat.

[UpInArms]

40. Market Numbers at 2:27 EST

Dow 10,184.55 +74.66 (+0.74%)
Nasdaq 1,976.45 +0.30 (+0.02%)
S&P 500 1,118.66 +3.72 (+0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.602% -0.069

Dollar

Last trade 88.68 Change -1.04 (-1.16%)

Blather

2:00PM: A slight improvement over the past half an hour as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have managed to stay within a short reach of their respective 50-day simple moving averages... Volume is moderate and is running at a heavier total than yesterday... Given the upcoming long Memorial Day weekend, though, keep in mind that volume levels were expected to be on the lighter side of things... Breadth figures are mixed, with advancers leading decliners by a 3-to-2 margin on the NYSE and decliners outpacing advancers by a slight degree on the Nasdaq...

Up volume is leading down volume by a 3-to-2 margin on the NYSE and slightly on the Nasdaq... The ratio of new 52-week highs to new lows is more inspiring than the numbers seen of late, although not overwhelmingly so as 76 and 68 new highs on the NYSE and Nasdaq, respectively, are juxtaposed with 16 and 20 new lows...NYSE Adv/Dec 1983/1245, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1410/1615

1:30PM: The major averages are continuing to trend lower, with the Nasdaq showing mild losses, the S&P 500 relatively flat, and the Dow sporting moderate gains... The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have pulled below their 50-day simple moving averages at 1972 and 1117, respectively... The indices' inability to stabilize above these technically- significant levels would be viewed as unfavorable by technical analysts... Many a rally effort have fizzled over the past couple of weeks, as buyers have remained a hesitant bunch...

The same is true today, as participants are apprehensive to commit new funds ahead of the long Memorial Day Weekend, particularly on the heels of yesterday's heightened terrorism talk...

[54anickel]

43. Boy that US$ isn't doing well, Gold broke the unwritten $6.00 rule today -

unless they mean 6.99 when they talk about the $6.00 rule. B-)

Just got off a telephone interview. Was supposed to be 15 - 20 minutes but lasted almost 45. Don't know if that's a good thing or a bad thing. Time will tell.

I asked how many applicants they had - 60-70. And that was posting on only one website. They pulled the posting after 2 days since they were being "overwhelmed". He said he had a friend at a bank that posted to 4 websites, including Monster and they got over 300 applicants in the same amount of time. UNFRIGGINBELIEVABLE!!!!

[54anickel]

45. Citigroup pays $70M over lending

http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/27/news/fortune500/citigroup.reut/

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Citigroup has agreed to pay $70 million to settle allegations that it violated federal fair-lending laws and attempted to mislead bank examiners, the Federal Reserve said on Thursday.

A Fed spokesman said the fine was the largest ever imposed by the U.S. central bank in a consumer law compliance case.

snip>

The Fed alleged that CitiFinancial violated regulations that prohibit a lender from requiring a co-signer if the loan applicant is sufficiently credit-worthy by himself. It said the push to require co-signers was made "in connection with attempts to increase joint insurance sales through an increased volume of co-applicant loans."

The Fed also alleged that CitiFinancial engaged in "unsafe and unsound" practices by making high-cost loans without taking into account borrowers' ability to repay the loans.

[54anickel]

46. Snow-Balled by Fannie and Freddie

http://www.fool.com/News/mft/2004/mft04052715.htm

There's nothing more embarrassing than shaking your fist at the devil, only to realize that you've unwittingly signed on to a few business deals with the same Senor Pitchfork.

That's the minor bit of malfeasance that Treasury Secretary John Snow is attempting to rectify this week. For those out of the know on Snow, he has been one of the administration officials leading the charge for change at government-chartered Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) and Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE).

Well, it turns out Snow's investment advisor purchased some Fannie and Freddie bonds for him, though he'd asked for government treasuries. He was apparently too busy to read his brokerage statements for the past 14 months, because he didn't notice the goof until it was brought to his attention during preparation of his annual disclosure form. Cheap shot No. 1: Is this the kind of attention to fiscal detail you want in one of our nation's top managers of the collective moolah?

Snow has asked for further review, but has already been cleared of wrongdoing, and I have no doubt that he means to do the right thing. He sold the $10 million worth of paper for a half-million dollar loss. Before you shed too many tears, keep in mind that last year, he made $72 million courtesy of rail operator CSX (NYSE: CSX), where he was formerly chairman. Bravo, Mr. Snow. That's not bad, considering CSX pulled in not even 4 times that amount last year in net income. Cheap shot No. 2: $72 million? At least we know he's got no incentive to stick his hand in the national till.

[54anickel]

47. Worst week of IPO pricing in 4 years

Heh-heh! Fool me once, ah, umm, you can't fool me again.

http://money.cnn.com/2004/05/27/markets/poor_ipos/

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - There were six initial public offerings of stock this week and not one traded at the prices initially set by underwriters, in what one expert called the toughest week for IPOs in close to four years.

"The investor demand wasn't there," said Richard Peterson, chief market strategist with Thomson Financial. "In terms of pricing, this is the worst week since August 2000."

As if picking up bargains from the discount rack, investors bid up shares of four of the companies following the price reductions. Others stayed in negative territory.

snip>

Despite, the lackluster week, Thomson's Peterson said this year is expected to be the best year for IPO underwriters since 2000, with the crown jewel Google yet to come.

[54anickel]

48. U.S. Stocks Advance; Retailers Gain, Led by Costco, Dollar Tree

Only to be out done by St. Vincent de Paul and The Resale Shop Yep, I'd say the economy is really hummin' along alright!

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aEwsadb6hZsY&refer=us

May 27 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks rose after retailers including Costco Wholesale Corp., Michaels Stores Inc. and Dollar Tree Stores Inc. reported earnings that surpassed analysts' estimates.

Stocks were also helped by a drop in oil prices and a government report that showed the U.S. economy expanded last quarter at a pace that was faster than originally reported and the biggest increase in corporate profits in two decades.

``The fact that retailers are doing as well as they are says a lot of good things about this economic expansion,'' said Bill Thomas, head of U.S. equities at Boston-based Baring Asset Management, which has $2 billion in U.S. equities. ``Earnings growth is going to be strong.''

snip>

This must be due to all those claiming to be self-employed "crafters"

Michaels Stores, a retailer of arts and crafts merchandise, increased $4.77 to $51.47. The company said it had fiscal first- quarter earnings of 42 cents a share. That's more than the average forecast of 37 cents in a Thomson survey.

more...

[54anickel]

49. Yukos warns of bankruptcy risk

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1084907871469

Shares in Yukos, the embattled Russian oil company, slumped on Thursday after the company warned of a growing risk of bankruptcy in the wake of a Moscow court's ruling to uphold a $3.4bn tax charge against it for 2000.

Yuri Beilin, one of the company's top executives, told a news conference that Yukos could go into bankruptcy by the end of this year as a result of Wednesday's ruling in the commercial court and an existing order that forbids the company from selling assets.

His comments came against growing concerns of insolvency as the Russian authorities have intensified pressure on Yukos and its principal shareholders in recent weeks, and Yukos has warned of the risk of further tax demands. Such a procedure would jeopardise the remaining value to private investors, who hold a quarter of the company's shares.

snip>

However, tax inspectors, government ministers and some analysts have argued that Yukos was more aggressive than rival Russian oil companies in using tax avoidance and minimisation schemes over the past few years.

The court judgement comes as part of a growing series of investigations brought by the authorities around Yukos, which are widely seen as politically motivated.....

[54anickel]

50. Euro surges on Slovak explosives find

Funny the terrorist threats here the other day didn't seem to hurt the US$ too much. Guess the Forex traders don't take those alerts too seriously anymore. "Oh elevated alert in the US - Bush must be doing poorly in the polls, no biggie."

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/87233/1/.html

LONDON : The euro jumped to its highest level against the dollar since April 2 following the discovery of explosives near a NATO meeting site in Slovakia.

snip>

"There's no doubt that sentiment is dollar-negative and technical levels have been broken," said Neil Mackinnon, chief economist at ECU Group.

Analysts also said there was a lot of positional trading ahead of long weekends in the United States and Europe, with market participants wary of holding onto dollars following news that Slovak police found two bags filled with explosives just a few meters (yards) from the building where a NATO meeting is to open on Friday.

Steve Barrow, currency strategist at Bear Stearns, said investors -- particularly in New York -- appear to be nervous about holding dollars ahead of the weekend following the news from the Slovak Republic.

Mackinnon said it was still unclear if this was an "unsustainable" downward move by the dollar or something "more directional."

more...

[54anickel]

51. Dollar Retreats From Massive Liquidity Injection

From the Articles and Ideas section -

http://www.forexnews.com/ai/default.asp?f=A20040527A.mgn

The technical breakdown in yields this morning is the result of a resurgent reflation trade, carrying the dollar lower in its wake as stocks and bonds rejoice. With most of the rising rates scenario already priced into the market, falling yields have allowed stocks, bonds, gold and foreign currencies to rally over the past two weeks as liquidity has returned to the market.

Recall last week that we warned of a temporary decline in yields, which would likely place a bid under stocks but drag the dollar lower. (See What Will a Temporary Fall in Rates Bring? 5/18/04). The reason we had confidence in that call was that yields spiked 125 basis points in two months and stopped right at the 50% retracement of the 6.79% to 3.03% decline at 4.9%. A correction is now underway, thereby enabling the reflation trades of 2003 to make a comeback.

Liquidity Guns Still Blazing

While the market may be calling for higher interest rates, the Fed Funds rate remains at 1%, allowing bond traders to continue profiting from the large yield spread between short and long rates. In turn this helps liquify the system. As interest rates surged last summer and this spring, liquidity was drained from the system. During this period stocks were hurt while the dollar rallied. But now that rates appear to have reached an interim peak, liquidity is again being created as traders look to exploit the yield spread.

Evidence that the carry trade is making a comeback can be seen in the Fed’s money supply data which snapped back sharply in May, well above its usual breakneck pace. According to the data, M3 grew $98.8 billion in the first two weeks of May just as yields were topping. The average weekly gain since 2000 recahed $11 billion, making this the biggest 2-week rise since August 2003, when interest rates peaked at 4.7% after rising 175 basis points from their June lows at 3.03%.

Borrowing record amounts of cash in the first weeks of May to buy US notes and bonds appears to have stemmed the rise in yields. The subsequent rally in bonds has not only been profitable, but it has served to reliquify the entire system.

Can the Reflation Trade Continue?

more...

[54anickel]

52. Bush prolongs the Greenspan agony

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/P82496.asp?Printer

There is a very high chance that the 78-year-old Greenspan will be around to deal with his own mess, after President Bush renominated him as Fed chairman May 19. Because of some Fed rules, Greenspan probably won't be able to serve out a full four-year term. But he will be in charge of U.S. monetary policy until January 2006.

Will the economy really fall into the debt trap Greenspan has built within the next 18 months? You bet.

Impending credit collapse
Though he created the monetary conditions for the late-'90s stock market bubble and its subsequent bust, Greenspan is still viewed as an intellectual giant the world over. But he could easily spend the last days at the Fed explaining away the credit collapse he's been setting the country up for over the past four years with absurdly low interest rates.

So what, in particular, can we deduce from the fact that Bush has renominated Greenspan, who has served as Fed chairman since 1987?

First off, stock market bulls will short-sightedly see this as good news because it means interest rates will rise only by a small amount before the presidential election in November -- despite the inflationary pressures building up in the economy. If Greenspan had started hiking rates at the beginning of this year, it stands to reason that Bush would not have been so ready to renominate him.

Dubya's eye on Greenspan

more...

[54anickel]

53. Closing numbers and yada yada - Everyone goes home a winner!!! Well

with the exception of the buck-a-roo of course.

Dow 10,205.20 +95.31 (+0.94%)
Nasdaq 1,984.50 +8.35 (+0.42%)
S&P 500 1,121.28 +6.34 (+0.57%)
10-yr Bond 4.588% -0.083
30-yr Bond 5.312% -0.064

NYSE Volume 1,447,776,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,641,386,000

US$
Last trade 88.64 Change -1.08 (-1.20%)
High 89.92 Low 88.59


Close: The market opened higher and despite an intra-day lull closed within a short reach of its best levels of the morning, with the major averages sporting gains of 0.3-0.9%... The positive bias was generated by multiple factors, which included favorable carry-over from yesterday's session, lower crude oil prices, and a sizeable pullback in bond yields...

With respect to crude oil prices, which have been center-stage of late, they dropped $1.26 to $39.44/bbl on expectation that OPEC will increase production quotas at its June 3 meeting, while major non-OPEC oil producers are likely to increase output given the high prices... The lower bond yields supported the advance of the stock market as the 10-year note was up 13/32, bringing its yield down to a three-week low of 4.60%... Also supporting the market's gains were technical factors, which included the major averages' ability to stay above their respective 200-day moving averages, which the Dow and the Nasdaq cleared in yesterday's session, as well as the S&P 500's ability to clear and the Nasdaq's ability to hold above their respective 50-day moving averages...

The bulk of the sectors closed in positive territory, with the oil & gas services sector among the only laggards of note... Leaders to the upside included the internet, semiconductor, communications services, consumer, drug, steel, chemical, retail, and gold sectors... This morning's economic reports had little effect on the market, but included the preliminary Q1 GDP at 4.4%, up from 4.2% previously, with the Chain Deflator at 2.6% (consensus 2.5%) and the Initial Claims report at 344K (consensus 335K)...NYSE Adv/Dec 2309/1012, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1697/1414

3:25PM : With half an hour of trade remaining, the major averages maintain their standing in positive territory... After the market closes, look for earnings from the likes of CHS and FRNT... Please see the Earnings Calendar for the complete list... There are no earnings reporters tomorrow, but the economic calendar includes the Personal Income and Spending, Chicago PMI, and revised Michigan Sentiment reports... Volume is expected to be light in tomorrow's session and the bond market is scheduled to close early, at 13ET...NYSE Adv/Dec 2167/1107, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1513/1597