STOCK MARKET WATCH, MONDAY AUGUST 11.....(#1)

[ozymandius]

Monday August 11, 2003

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 530
REICH-WING RUBBERSTAMP-Congress = DAY 271
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 2 YEARS, 243 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 1 YEAR, 301 DAYS
WHERE'S SADDAM? WHERE ARE THE WMD'S? - DAY 143
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 627
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 17
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 0
Other Arrests of Execs = 53

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES




AT THE CLOSING BELL ON August 8, 2003

Dow 9,191.09 +64.64 (+0.71%)
Nasdaq 1,644.03 -8.15 (-0.49%)
S&P 500 977.59 +3.47 (+0.36%)
10-Year Bond 4.29% +0.06 (+1.42%)
Gold future...... 358.90 +1.00 +0.28%)

DOW..........................NASDAQ.......................S&P

||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars


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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. Market WrapUp by Mike Hartman

Keep It Simple

The highlight for the week was the Treasury’s refunding of three, five and ten-year notes for a total debt sale of $60 billion. For the most part, prices in the markets didn’t change much since everything took a back burner to the Treasury auctions. The Dow Industrials added 38 points and the S&P 500 barely finished in the green with a three point gain. The NASDAQ took the biggest losses this week with a decline of 4.1% to close at 1644. With the volatility of U.S. Treasury debt this week, more money flowed into the blue-chip stocks as investors ran for cover.

Spin of the Week

“Less wealth generated from refinancing may restrain economic growth as early as the fourth quarter unless job growth and business investment kicks in soon, some economists said.”

I threw this quote out on Wednesday for everyone to see the subtle messages that we receive through the popular media that influence our perceptions to believe that debt is a good thing. Our financial system is dependent on ever increasing debt loads. The sentence automatically assumes that wealth is generated from refinancing. What could be further from the truth? The only thing generated from refinancing is debt, or possibly some “cash-out” on top of the existing loan balance with a corresponding increase in the total debt. Debt is not wealth. An individual that borrows more money today will enjoy the immediate gratification that spending the money brings, whether it’s on a vacation, a new car, a boat, home improvements, or whatever. The problem comes way after the money is spent, when all that the borrower is left with is debt service payments and a depreciating asset that was purchased with the borrowed money.

What to do Now?

I am not here to fix the world or belly-ache and moan about the problems. The situation simply is what it is! Given the crazy monetary times we live in, how can we use these developments to protect our wealth and even make some money along the way? To take advantage of the situation you must take some time to study the history of money, and especially the history of the U.S. monetary system since the Federal Reserve was born 90 years ago. It’s not that long from a historical perspective, but much has changed just in our lifetime.

LOTS more...

[ozymandius]

2. Stocks Seen Edging Up to Start Busy Week

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks are set to inch up at Monday's open with help from bullish brokerage calls on software makers Oracle Corp. ORCL.O and Adobe Systems Inc. ADBE.O , but the Fed's policy-setting meeting and a slew of economic data this week may keep trading cautious.

"It looks quiet, but a little firmer," said Bryan Piskorowski, a market analyst at Wachovia Securities LLC. "It's a bit of inertia ahead of the (Fed) meeting although we are not expecting them to produce any fireworks, and the economic data is not expected to heat up until later this week."

story

[Maeve]

8. Good Monday, Ozy et al

Set to edge up, huh? Take a look at the futures NOW--like a rock..in a deep pool.

I'll be around some today and tomorrow, then I'm not even going to turn on the computer! Eldest Son did, indeed, pass the driving test Friday, Youngest Daughter turned 11 and got books to read at Grandma's house for the next week, Hubby still has a dozen things to do and no time and I'm doing the "what-have-I-forgotten?" worry bit. So onto the stock watch!

Much of this week is centered around the Fed (who probably woin't do anything) and the numerous reports out Wednesday and Thursday. Watch the Initial Claims and see what they get revised to. Also watch the Trade Balance numbers.

[ozymandius]

9. Good morning Maeve.

Maybe I should have added your trip to Ireland to the "counting the days" column. This is so exciting! I am jealous. There are so many sites in Ireland that I want to see - sacred and profane. We have this book: Ancient Ireland by O'Brien and Harbison. Inside are many of the ancient spiritual sites so old that they make Stonehenge look like a baby.

Ahhh... Someday... Soneday...

Congratulations for your son's passage.

I will be heading away shortly. My boy has another trip scheduled to the doctor. We discovered what the fever was about. It seems that he had a case of Roseola. The consolation is that, like chickenpox, he now has an immunity to this virus. His fever broke suddenly and now he is speckled with a rash. That should go away in a couple of days.

[ozymandius]

3. Online trading booms

Stockbrokers are reporting a "spectacular" increase in online trading as private investors storm back into the market after five successive quarters of declining business.

Online stockbrokers recorded a 42 per cent increase in trades in the second quarter while the number of clients rose to 395,000, according to monitoring by ComPeer, the market research company.

"The online resurgence is spectacular, but all business types - traditional advice-based businesses included - are growing too." he said. Overall, the volume of share dealing by private investors rose by 21 per cent on the previous quarter.

story

[ozymandius]

4. Fed Has Luxury of Sitting Tight on Tuesday

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - With the latest batch of economic data showing a light wind beginning to fill the U.S. economy's sails, Federal Reserve (news - web sites) policy-makers have the luxury of sitting tight at their meeting on Tuesday, analysts say.

But what they say in their post-meeting statement will be key for financial markets, given the fallout from a smaller-than-hoped short-term interest rate cut in June and a shift in rhetoric in the top ranks.

Long-term interest rates, set by financial markets, have surged since then as debt traders have stopped worrying about a downward spiral in prices and refocused on the prospects for an economic rebound.

story

[ozymandius]

5. Fed Questioned After Bond Market Rout

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The blame game in the wake of the bloodiest U.S. bond market rout in nearly a decade is in full swing and many of the fingers are pointed at the Federal Reserve (news - web sites).

Accusations are flying that the central bank overplayed its concerns on deflation in a manipulative effort to push long-term interest rates lower to goose the economy.

Now the Fed has been "caught out" -- as Melvyn Krauss of the Hoover Institution put it in an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal on Friday -- some argue its credibility has been damaged.

story

[ozymandius]

6. Bonds Go Flat, but Eke Out Gains for Week

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries rolled over and played dead late on Friday as dealers took profits on the mountain of paper acquired in this week's record refunding auctions.

Treasuries had been ahead for much of the session, leading some to hope the market could eke out its first three-day rally since the recent rout began in mid-June.

<..cut..>
"Given the amount of paper the Street had to swallow this week, it's done well not to regurgitate any more," said one trader at a U.S. primary dealer.

<..cut..>
"Even the mortgage guys have taken a breather from selling, though we're worried that some of the data next week could be strong enough to get them spooked again," he added.

story

[ozymandius]

7. Rotation rotation rotation

Investors are dumping tech stocks in favor of stodgier names.

NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - With Autumn beckoning, portfolio managers have begun reshuffling their decks.

In August, the tech shares which provided the market with so much of its juice through the year have dropped out of favor, as have financial stocks and consumer cyclicals.

Breaking it down further, it's the most volatile names -- "high beta" in the lingo of Wall Street -- that have dropped the most. The Amex Biotech index has dropped 8.5 percent since the month started. The Goldman Sachs Internet index is down 11.3 percent.

Taking their places have been stodgier issues. The big winners so far this month have been energy stocks. Also gaining have been consumer staples -- companies like Procter & Gamble, which make products people use every day, making them somewhat immune to downturns in the economy.

opinion piece

[ozymandius]

10. My $1.75 market forecast.

Remember: my opinion and $1.75 will buy you a cup of coffee.

If you think that the average American consumer had a short attention span, that hardly compares with the wee flea-sized attention span of today's average stock trader.

There's much to ignore today. The bond market is still confusing - as in "what does this all mean?" with regards to long-term economic health. My intuition tell me that this is something that everybody is going to worry about tomorrow. The Fed is going to sit on its hands at tomorrow's meeting and the criticism leveled at the Fed over bond prices and deflation will be brushed aside with Greenspan's silver tongue. "Nothing to see here. Move on, please."

Now, with regards to the precariousness of our fragile economy: the bond market holds serious implications toward the one reliable pillar holding up this economy - the housing market. If this pillar starts showing cracks then watch out for a tumble in consumer confidence and durable goods orders to suffer.

Not today - but someday. The stage is being set for this to happen. Rates will rise. People will be burdened with debt over the purchase of items that will do nothing but depreciate. Save their homes (and the dirt underneath them) the home equity market will decline with a slow hissing sound. Gods help us if the actual properties lose value.

But I digress...

Today's markets look almost like a business-as-usual enterprise. Except for the Nasdaq - the DJIA and the S&P will see respectable gains. Nasdaq selloffs will hindering even better gains for the non-tech stocks as some sellers will cover their losses by selling those stodgy blue chips. Looks like a mixed day. Pay no attention to the first staggering half-hour of trading. There's always no there, there.

[ozymandius]

11. With that I must be going.

My boy is due at the doctor for a checkup.

Have a great day!

[JNelson6563]

12. Wow! Lots of news!

Lots to take in this morn. but first off, Ozy, glad to hear your son will be ok. That can be so scary. And Maeve, I too am terribly jealous on several levels--I'm Irish for one, a serious but amatuer historian for another and I'd love to go far, far away from it all for a time......We'll miss you terribly.

As to the markets, yep, futures look dark. I wonder if Congress wil drill the Green-man again? Boy last time they were slappin' him around.

Off to see what else is happening before markets open. :hi:

Julie

[Maeve]

13. Here we go! 9:36

Dow 9,191.58 +0.49 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,649.49 +5.46 (+0.33%)
S&P 500 978.51 +0.92 (+0.09%)

[JNelson6563]

14. 10:12 and all is sunny

Dow 9,213.99 +22.90 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,655.78 +11.75 (+0.71%)
S&P 500 981.19 +3.60 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.359% +0.070


Could get bloody over in treasuries......

Julie

[Coventina]

15. The "I Ching" on today's market

Good morning everyone.

Maeve, I'm sure you are going to have a wonderful time. I'm "green" with envy! ;-)

Glad to hear your son will be ok Ozy. That must have been very worrisome. I don't have children myself, so I can only imagine the helpless feeling parents must have when their children are ill.

Well, today's reading has no changing lines, so the only hexagram shown is PROMOTION. "This tremendously postive time will not last forever, so you must use it to its best advantage," says Ching.

Based on that, I am going to predict the market will be up today, but with no guarantees that it indicates any long-term recovery.

[JNelson6563]

16. that means take advantage

of today's stock run-up. In other words, if we're smart we'll join in the profit-taking bound to occur if upward trends continue through the day.

Good to see you, as always Coventina! :hi:

Julie

[JNelson6563]

17. Nasdaq roaring back

Dow 9,213.71 +22.62 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,663.73 +19.70 (+1.20%)
S&P 500 981.05 +3.46 (+0.35%)
10-Yr Bond 4.365% +0.076

11:09 and isn't it odd to see the Nasdaq up as much as the DOW?

Julie

[JNelson6563]

18. goin' south quickly

Dow 9,192.91 +1.82 (+0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,660.12 +16.09 (+0.98%)
S&P 500 978.83 +1.24 (+0.13%)
10-Yr Bond 4.365% +0.076


11:16, quick turn-around.

I am off to see some visiting Irish brood for a time. With family in the armed services looks like there will be some fun Team Bush bashing, none are happy at all and that's a large voting block, the Timmins clan--we could probably be a demographic of our own. haha

Checkin' back later....

Julie

[Maeve]

19. And we have red ink at 11:46

Altho the Nasdaq remains on the plus side.

Dow 9,155.65 -35.44 (-0.39%)
Nasdaq 1,653.52 +9.49 (+0.58%)
S&P 500 975.50 -2.09 (-0.21%)

[Maeve]

20. Hanging down at 12:30

Slight edge up, but the word being used is "tepid"
Dow 9,167.49 -23.60 (-0.26%)
Nasdaq 1,654.36 +10.33 (+0.63%)
S&P 500 976.46 -1.13 (-0.12%)

[Maeve]

21. 1:33 and creeping back into the black

1:00PM: Indices remain stuck in the afternoon's trading range as investors remain reluctant to make changes to their positions... Worries surrounding the outcome of the Fed's meeting tomorrow, coupled with prevailing concerns surrounding the rally's slowing momentum, have led buyers and sellers alike to cling to the sidelines... As a result, advancers have virtually tied decliners at the NYSE, and volume has churned at a slow rate... The latter has contributed to the volatility of trading today, as it has left the indices prone to wide swings...
http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

Dow 9,191.72 +0.63 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,657.57 +13.54 (+0.82%)
S&P 500 978.91 +1.32 (+0.14%)

[mrsteve]

22. 2:00 - starting to move down a little

Dow 9,188.99 -2.10 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,658.79 +14.76 (+0.90%)
S&P 500 978.94 +1.35 (+0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.387% +0.098

[Maeve]

23. 3:12 and mostly sideways

Only slight movement since about 1:00--DOW dowsn't get much closer to "unchanged"!

Dow 9,192.28 +1.19 (+0.01%)
Nasdaq 1,658.60 +14.57 (+0.89%)
S&P 500 979.50 +1.91 (+0.20%)

[JNelson6563]

24. rounding the bend

Mon 2:08pm ET - CBS MarketWatch
A solid performance in the technology sector buoyed the Nasdaq on Monday while selling in the bank and pharmaceutical sectors put some pressure on the Dow.

Mon 2:38pm ET
Little action in the stock market this afternoon as the indices oscillate in a narrow range... Losses in blue chip areas like homebuilding, brokerage, and insurance have thwarted the rally, and contributed to the Dow and S&P 500's relative underperformance...

http://finance.yahoo.com

3:12 and here's what we're lookin' at:


Dow 9,206.91 +15.82 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,660.75 +16.72 (+1.02%)
S&P 500 980.56 +2.97 (+0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.376% +0.087

*yawn*

Julie

[ozymandius]

25. Boy-oh-boy - I was 180 degrees out on today's performance.

Hi folks. I'm just jumping back in for a brief break away from work. What a surprise the Nasdaq presented today. It just demonstrates that where people are selling, others are buying.

3:20

DJIA 9,207.33 16.24 (0.18%)
NASDAQ 1,659.89 15.86 (0.96%)
S&P 500 980.14 2.55 (0.26%)

[JNelson6563]

26. we'll all be millionaires soon!!

take heart! Rally!!

5 or so minutes to go:


Dow 9,217.56 +26.47 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,661.36 +17.33 (+1.05%)
S&P 500 980.63 +3.04 (+0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.371% +0.082


Nasdaq rally....DOW and S&P *yawn*

Julie

[Maeve]

27. Considering the beating Nasdaq has taken this month

Some would argue it was due for a rise. But will it hold?
:hangover: Just keeping my rep as the pessimist around here...

Dow 9,217.35 +26.26 (+0.29%)
Nasdaq 1,661.51 +17.48 (+1.06%)
S&P 500 980.59 +3.00 (+0.31%)
10-Yr Bond 4.371% +0.082

[JNelson6563]

28. haha your "rep"

Sorry Bunky but everyone knows an Irish lass such as yourself isn't likely to be pessimistic longer than 20 minutes at a time. ;-)

And no, I don't think this "rally" will last. The steps taken the last quarter or two to bring in decent #s cannot be repeated and this is going to be evident in the next quarterly reports.

Plus, when you figure Green-man will be likely grilled in Congress again this week, that's unsettling to folks. Hey it that is what it takes for them to get a clue though.....

Catch you all in the AM--
Julie

[ozymandius]

29. I will see your pessimism and raise you twenty. (final #s)

It's Monday - when anything can happen and usually does.

DJIA 9,217.35 26.26 (+0.29%)
NASDAQ 1,661.51 17.48 (+1.06%)
S&P 500 980.59 3.00 (+0.31%)

Looks like I picked the wrong day to quit drinking/smoking/sniffing glue/intravenous drugs, etc...

Whatever the Fed meeting delivers will, by chance, present a clearer picture of this week's markets' performance (I'll wager).