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Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 08:51 AM
Original message
Doubts Arise on Saudi Arabia's Stability
WASHINGTON - The U.S. relationship with Saudi Arabia has been based on a disarmingly simple proposition: In exchange for cheap Saudi oil, the United States has guaranteed the kingdom's defense.

snip

But now doubts are arising about the stability of Saudi Arabia and the ability of the United States to come up with answers.

snip

Former U.S counterterrorism adviser Richard Clarke says the stakes in the struggle for Saudi Arabia are hard to exaggerate.


"The threat to the political and economic world posed by Saudi instability, I think, is greater than the threat that was posed by Iraq (news - web sites)," he said.

more

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=540&e=6&u=/ap/saudia_oil_protectorate



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gulfcoastliberal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 08:55 AM
Response to Original message
1. One attack on the oil infrastructure
and $40/barrell will seem reasonable. Assuming the terrorists did major damage, we'd be looking at global depression. Their house is definitely not in order.
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bemildred Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 08:57 AM
Response to Original message
2. No shit, they noticed.
Now that the US military is hamstrung in Iraq,
OBL and his merry men have begun to focus on their
home front in Saudi Arabia. It's almost like they
are following a plan. :crazy: (Nah, that would mean they are
outsmarting the wizards in Washington, and we all know
that is riduculous.)
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Go Eagles Donating Member (132 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 09:03 AM
Response to Original message
3. Saudi Arabia is a mess and far more dangerous then Hussein was
I read Robert Baer's "Sleeping With the Devil" a year ago and it really opened my eyes and how bad of shape Saudi Arabia is, how it is the prime financier and recruiter for Al Qaeda, the corrupt relationship it has with the United States, how the House of Saud is on such shaky grounds it it could easily collapse in the hands of Islamic fundamentalism and bring global economic calamity. Of course, very little of this is relayed by our government and media and they still want us to believe that Al Qaeda are just evil doers and solely exist because they hate our freedoms.
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BleedingHeartPatriot Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 09:06 AM
Response to Original message
4. Of course it's an unstable country
History has shown, over and over, that any non democratic governments that are propped up by the US are inherently unstable. The government body, which is not duly elected, feels no necessity to serve or protect its constituents, comfortable in the knowledge it has the support of the most powerful country in the world. Eventually, that disconnect from the populace results in subversion and uprisings, as the US usually backpedals from the situation as quickly as it feasibly can. Since we've been financing and supporting a corrupt monarchy, of all things, it's inevitable. We could have started to break ties with the Saudis immediately after 9/11, but unfortunately it wasn't Al Gore in the WH. It seems the terrorist cells within SA are getting emboldened, so I expect to see yet more Mid east turmoil. MKJ
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Voltaire99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 10:41 AM
Response to Reply #4
10. It looks like the so-called "end of history" was. . .premature, LOL!
Crippling Arab self-determination has always been the US game. That gave us cheap oil. We cut out the middle man--the populations--and dealt with the local Rockefellers.

And you must admit that for half a century, it worked pretty well. Except for a stretch there in the 70s, the oil kept flowing. The American public never asked any nosy questions. Unhappy Arab populations? So what! "Got fuel to burn / Got roads to drive," as Neil Young sang.

Of course, sooner or later, as you imply, the sweep of modern history is against colonialism. Bitterly, incontrovertibly so.

Even that has been of no interest to Joe Blow. Until this decade.

Despite our leaders trying hard to sustain the myth that terrorists hate us because we can make a Britney Spears, sensible Americans know that 9/11 revealed the true price of gasoline.

The price is this: imperial misuse of that region has put us in very grave trouble. Exacerbated by the failure to wean ourselves from oil, our nation is now dependent for its survival on villains.

We need up to two decades to significantly transition to alternative energy, and that's under best-case scenarios which don't assume oil shortages, oil wars, and other oil woes. We'd better get started!
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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 02:02 PM
Response to Reply #10
14. nice post, V.
It certainly seems like we rolled the dice, and we kept getting snake eyes. However, success carries with it the seeds of its own destruction. The more our little scam worked, the more dependent we became on our 'Bedouin Buddies'. The oil companies loved it. The car manufacturers celebrated; they saw no need to change anything as long as the black gold kept flowing. (Holds up glass) Cheers! And the politicians saw no reason to encourage Americans to use less gas.

Unfortunately, the more successful we were at this, the more the resentment was building in Saudi Arabia. The ground was fertile for terrorist organizations, attempted coups and a general destabilization of the area. Usama Bin Laden made it very clear that he resented SA's cozy relationship with the US. He dislikes the Saudi "monarchy" as much as he hates the Americans.

So the situation is ripe for a coup, or a major attack on the oil industry. I would seriously consider selling the Hummer right about now.
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Zhade Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-10-04 02:41 AM
Response to Reply #10
30. Excellent post, Voltaire!
Despite our leaders trying hard to sustain the myth that terrorists hate us because we can make a Britney Spears, sensible Americans know that 9/11 revealed the true price of gasoline.

The price is this: imperial misuse of that region has put us in very grave trouble. Exacerbated by the failure to wean ourselves from oil, our nation is now dependent for its survival on villains.


Hell of a way to condense our relationship with Saudi Arabia! Well-said.

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SilasSoule Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 11:47 PM
Response to Reply #4
24. Great Post BHP!!!!

And welcome to DU.
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mike_c Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 09:09 AM
Response to Original message
5. watch the U.S. airlift all those Saudis BACK into the U.S....
...when the excrement really hits the fan in the ME.
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Voltaire99 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 10:42 AM
Response to Reply #5
11. LOL! Nice one (n/t)
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Eurobabe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 10:44 AM
Response to Reply #5
12. that will be impossible, no gas
n/t
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ochazuke Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 09:15 AM
Response to Original message
6. BBC report
said that Saudi police reported that the guys who kidnapped the Westerners last month were the very last al Quaeda cell in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

So, relax folks. You have been reassured. They got 'em all. Yup, no more bad guys, not in the place where they all come from. Nope. Guess they all moved to Iraq or Afgahnistan or whereever. Phew, glad that's over.
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seemslikeadream Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 09:19 AM
Response to Original message
7. don't worry georgie got a handle on it!
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JohnLocke Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 10:18 AM
Response to Original message
8. Duh!
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JNelson6563 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 10:26 AM
Response to Original message
9. The House of Saud is on a precipice
It will take nothing to knock them over. The opponent cleverly biding time. Watching The Saudi's Big Brother squander military resources.......

Yep, any day now....

Julie
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RobinA Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 11:12 AM
Response to Original message
13. Doubts ARISE???
Edited on Wed Jun-09-04 11:13 AM by RobinA
I've been hearing since high school (the '70's) that Saudi Arabia is an unstable mess tottering on the brink. That's why we should have been looking for alternative energy. We'd have it by now if we had started in earnest back at the first oil crisis.

Then we wouldn't have had to invade a country to secure access to oil.
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 04:42 PM
Response to Original message
15. Communal Dictatorships last about 60 years.
Edited on Wed Jun-09-04 05:00 PM by happyslug
You must understand that a Dictatorship is rarely the rule of one man, but a collection of people around the Dictator. These assistants help the Dictator rule. At the same time these assistants help select the next Dictator.

Now a Dictator once in power picks people he can trust. In the Case of Stalin in the 1930s he picked people who were smart but undereducated compared to the revolutionaries such technocrats replaced during the purges. Such people dependent on Stalin for their promotion AND NO ONE ELSE and thus loyal to him over anyone else.

The founder of the House of Saud did the same, appointed people who was loyal to him, but being a product of the Arabian Deserts those supporters were his relatives (and as he aged his sons).

Now after the Dictator dies, his supporters collectively pick his successor. Sometime this is by blood successor (like the old Kings of Europe) but not always (Incompetents in the line of succession either died on the throne or were killed). In the case of Stalin his real successor took almost two years to be selected (with Baria and other potential claimants being shot in the process).

Now the founding of a Dictatorship tends to be bold and bloody. He takes the throne with force and holds it with fear. It took Stalin almost 20 years to move from being one of the lesser revolutionaries to be the absolute ruler of the Soviet Union, but he did it ruthlessly and bloody ending in the purges of the 1930s as he killed off the generation that had lead the Communist Revolution in 1917 and replaced them with people who supported Stalin more than they supported Communism.

The founder of the House of Saud did the same, his bloody conquest of Arabia and the infighting within his kingdom mirrored what Stalin was doing at the same time. Unlike Stalin the King of Arabia put his sons in charge of his "house" for as a Arab he could have more than one wife and with each wife value based on how many sons she produced, he had many sons to protect him. Furthermore these sons all knew they power was derived from their Father and thus each had an incentive to protect him (and an incentive NOT to do anything to rash least their father think they are trying to take over and in his fear kill them like he had done to other relatives.)

Stalin had only one son (and he died in German POW Camp). His daughter was the only child still alive when he died (His Grandchildren where still minors at that time, including the children of Stalin's Sons). Furthermore blood successor was rejected in the Revolution thus none of Stalin's grand children (and his Daughter who was still young) could be used as "child-kings" while the real power was in the "regent". Thus in Russia in the 1950s the Secession took almost two years of maneuvering between the various technocrats who came to power in the 1930s.

Now when Stalin was selecting these Technocrats in the 1930s he was looking for two things, first an ability to do the job which required that the technocrat be competent, AND that the technocrat NOT be a threat to Stalin when it came to power. When you have this you get technocrats who are loyal to a Dictator but once that Dictator is gone do not have his ruthlessness to rule how he ruled.

After the death of the First Dictartor the rule of such countries falls to these technocrats who tend to become corrupt as they promote their friends and relatives to positions in the Government. This is what happened after Stalin's death, the Technocrats who Stalin promoted into position of Power during the late 1930s became more and more Corrupt. As the ruling class becomes more and more Corrupt they also become more and more incompetent. Each new change in the ruling group is based on how it increase the power of the ruling group even if it weakens the groups control over the people. Sooner or later the system breaks down and the ruling group is overthrown. It takes time, in the case of the Soviet Union almost 50 years (From the Purges of the late 1930s till the fall of the Soviet Union in the late 1980s).

In the case of Saudi Arabia the same process is incurring. Now the "technocrats" are the sons and grandsons of the Founder of the House of Saud instead of the real Technocrats of Soviet Russia, but the process is the same. The First King Saud died in 1952. His children took over his kingdom and ruled it collectively just like the Politburo did after the death of Stalin. They did name a nominal "King" but the kings since the first King Saud have NEVER had the power of the Original King Saud. These kings were and are more like Brezhnev not Stalin. Corrupt taking care of their relatives but also preventing anyone with any real vision from being put in charge of the Country.

Now Both King Saud and Stalin died in the early 1950s, why has the House of Saud lasted 15 years longer than the Soviet Union? Several reason for this:

1. The Technocrats appointed by Stalin in the 1930s were 10 years older than the Sons of King Saud thus the movement from absolute Dictator to corrupt incompetents occurred sooner.

2. The Key to the overthrow of the Soviet Union was its lost of Oil Revenue. When its oil production started to fall in the mid-1980s, this decline lead to economic problems which force the Technocrats to look for a solution. You thus had Gorbachev. When Gorbachev showed he could NOT do the needed changes the whole top ruling group was overthrown right after the Coup. Thus you had Yeltsin who proceeded to replace almost all of the technocrats with people who would accept the needed radical change. A similar Economic problem is only coming to Saudi Arabia NOW.

3. The Communists always had an image of being progressive (even when they were not) and this dogma meant that any failure was a failure of the system and communist dogma called for a Revolution when such a failure occurred. Thus when the failure occurred the dogmatic answer should have been revolution but revolution against the Revolution? This trap lead many communist to abandon the Communist party of Russia (Such as Yeltsin) and looked to other solution to their problems.

4. The House of Saud is one of blood relatives, if a similar abandonment of the ruling "party" occurs it will mean cousin fighting cousins (which is not uncommon is such break down of a ruling dynasty). As long as the Brothers and half brothers still rule they can see each other as brothers and remember growing up together. On the other hand their children do not share these same memories. Thus Blood based dynasties tend to have a longer life span than non-blood based dynasties. This is coming to an end with the aging of King Saud's children (remember he died in 1952 so his children are at least 50 years of age with most much older i.e. 70s and 80s).

Thus the house of Saud is in its death stage, all it will take is some spark to be overthrown. A massacre of Iraqi citizens may be enough (or the sudden cut off of oil exports that lead to economic cut backs do to lost of revenue).

Arabia is also into its third and fourth geneartion from King Saud, the knives are out. Each cousin wants to rule, it is rule or die time. Change will occur even if everthing stays OK if King Faud dies OR his half brother the Crown Prince Abdullah (Do to King Faud's Stroke many years ago, he is still the nominal ruler of Arabia but Abdullah is the real ruler). When the Sons of King Saud are gone, you will have Radical Change and the Palace intrigues are in full strength right now as everyone fights to have the best position to take over when either Faud or Abdullah dies or some other radical change occurs.
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sangh0 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 04:47 PM
Response to Reply #15
16. Excellent post!!
Thanks for sharing that with us
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 10:06 PM
Response to Reply #16
18. History is full of such falls
Edited on Wed Jun-09-04 10:07 PM by happyslug
Augustus Caesar died in 14 AD, Nero was overthrown in 68 AD. This is the classic pattern. Augustus was in full power deriving power not only from his uncle Julius Caesar but his own boldness in grabbing the Roman Empire for himself. Augustus was followed by Tiberius, Caligula, and Claudius who followed the Brezhnev's Role and finally Nero who as the Third Generation after the death of Augustus lead to the fall of the Julio-Claudian Dynasty.

http://www.roman-emperors.org/

The Arab Empire Suffered the same fate, formation by Mohammad (Died 632 AD) expansion under his immediately successors, Abu Bakr (632-634), Umar I (634-644) Uthman ibn Affan (644-656) Ali Ben Abu Talib (656-661) and than division as the Third Generation took over after 661 AD.
http://mb-soft.com/believe/txh/calip00.htm

The Mongol Empire suffered the same fate, Genghis Khan died in 1227, succeeded by his son, Ogedei Khan (1229-1241) and than grandson, Guyuk Khan (1246-1248). Than the Infighting began between the Grand-children starting in 1250 AD.

http://mongolempire.4t.com/r_rulers.htm
http://www.allempires.com/empires/mongol/mongol1.htm
http://www.friesian.com/mongol.htm#great
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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 10:02 PM
Response to Reply #15
17. very nice post, hs.
This is the reason I keep coming back to the DU; every once in a while I strike gold in the form of awesome information.

Thank you. This gives me hope that we may yet see some upheavals in Saudi Arabia.

I distilled an important hypothesis from your post: corrupt leadership tends to carry with it the seeds of its own destruction. Just the nature of its existence; the leadership bypasses the normal channels of business, decision making, favors and so on. Everything within the system is based on theft, cronyism, giving favors to companies who might be incompetent, but are "buddies" with the dictator(s).

Over time, it seems that the leadership weakens because of these unnatural relationships, and the leaders are unable to hang on to their power because the ability becomes weakened, or in the case of children heirs, they are soft little cream-puffs who don't know the meaning of hard work, or are too stupid to delve in intrigue and plots. So it would tend to weed itself out over time. Just like The Bush Man.

Thanks!
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 11:04 PM
Response to Reply #17
19. You missed the worse part
Edited on Wed Jun-09-04 11:16 PM by happyslug
The Grandchildren want what is "Theirs". None of them have the ability of their Grandfather. Not that they could not have that ability. The problem is that they are the product of privilege, they do not have the experience to get the people behind them. Such grandchildren are use to infighting among their own NOT leading a revolution against their own. This is what differentiates them from the founder of a Dynasty, the lack of ability AND experience to get the people behind them.

Thus the Grandchildren fight among themselves for the crumbs laying in front of them. More than one Empire fell as such grandchildren fought among themselves rather than fight a common Enemy. For example:

1. The fall of Sung China to Genghis Khan,
2. The fall of the Yuan (Mongol) dynasty of China to the Ming Dynasty, and even
3. The fall of Roman Empire in the West (Theodosius I, the last Emperor of both the Eastern and Western Empire died in 395, the Western Empire was dead by 450).

All can best be described as the result of infighting among such ruling grandchildren who rather fight over who rules in the Capital than fight an enemy taking over the country. Furthermore such grandchildren want to retain all assets to themselves and are NOT willing to give any to the people. This helps turn the people against such rulers and the reason for the people helping the Victors in the above three fall of mighty Empires.

This is what is happening in Saudi Arabia. You have infighting among the ruling Grandchildren AND an attack from outside (Bin Laden). The infighting among the family will weaken any and all attempts to defeat Bin Laden. On top of that the Grandchildren do NOT want to share the wealth except among themselves.

This will continue until someone is in charge. Given the bad condition of Arabia the best comparison would be the Emperor Heraclius (Eastern Emperor 610-641 A.D.) who during such a situation in the Eastern Roman Empire, took an Army from Carthage to Constantinople and made himself Emperor in 610 AD (aka bin Laden's Attacks on Arabia). He than defeated the various groups attacking his Country (Including destroying the Persian Empire).

The costs were high for Heraclius to win these victories, his country was broke. In the last decade of Heraclius rule he lost Syria to the Arabs and his successor gave up Egypt to keep Constantinople.

Heraclius made several decisions during his rule that saved the Byzantine Empire, basically he made the Empire Greek not Roman. Greek became the language in law and proclamations, Roman eating customs were abandoned in favor of the modern method of eating at a table. The Theme System of raising armies were adopted to replace the Hiring of mercenaries. Even the Food changed as he shifted the source of grain from Egypt to the Ukraine in anticipation of the fall of Egypt. This is the big change in the History of the Fall of the Roman Empire. Prior to Heraclius the Eastern Empire acted as if it was still part of a larger United Latin Speaking Roman Empire. This was kept up even after the fall of the Last Western Roman Emperor in 476, and the Lombard Invasion of Italy of 570 (which pushed the Roman Imperial Army out of Northern Italy for the last time). This produced the language barriers of the Middle ages, Latin Speaking Western Europe, Greek Speaking Eastern Europe and Arabic Speaking North Africa and the Mid East (With Egypt Speaking both Greek and Arabic).

Heralius made these changes to make his Country united not only in Religion but language and Custom and this would be how the Bzyantine Empire would survive till 1453 (when it fell to the Turks). Heraclius did radical surgury on his country to save it, I suspect similar radical changes to be adopted by whoever takes charge of Arabia.



Note of the Byzantine "Themes":
The Themetic system basically ran this way. Soldiers would serve in the army and than be given land for their service. At their death the land returned to the Emperor. This was the theory, in practice Father served his time in the army, received the grant of land. He than raised his son on the land. His son at reaching adulthood went into the army for 20 year. At this time father would be 60 or dead. If dead the land went to the son after he served his 20 years, if father was not dead when the son finished his military service, Father would give his use of the land to his son and the Emperor would give the son any right the Emperor retained to the land upon his father's death (Though those "rights" would return to the Emperor at the death of the son). This way the land went from father to son but always after Military Service.

The Byzantine Empire would use this system till the 4th Crusade (1205 AD) and would survive in the Turkish army till WWI.
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Just Me Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 11:16 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. I wanna start a campaign against "entitlements" to the "spoiled".
They are all just flesh and bone and blood like the rest of us.

They get "lucky" being born into favor,...and that somehow makes them "special"?

What GOD bestowed such favor?
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 11:38 PM
Response to Reply #20
22. God does not, he destroys them
Edited on Wed Jun-09-04 11:41 PM by happyslug
For he makes these guys so jealous of each other that they do more damage to their "class" than any one from the outside ever can.

Now some religions do try to rationale such groups as an elect or an elite but unless they accept constant change (Including change in their membership) AND Give ALL members of their Country an interest in the Country, such groups will lead their country to self-destruction.

Ruling elites who do both of these tend to survive much longer. The Roman Republic was a good example. It survived almost 500 years taking care of all of its Citizens. That was the case until the ruling elite decided their wealth was more important than the care of their fellow Citizens. Once that decision was made the Roman Republic was doomed (and it was this failure to share the wealth of country that lead to the formation of the Empire and the fall of the Roman Empire).

It is with the raise of Christianity that you again see a concern for the poor in Roman History (other than giving them food and games). It is with the fall of the Empire in The West that you start the long process of breaking up the large Roman Estates of the Empire to the Small farms of the Middle Ages. Once that reform is done (about 900AD) you again see growth in the West (In the East you see emphasis on such small farms as early as 500 AD and were the norm after 600 AD).

Those Countries that are the Strongest make sure their poor have an interest in the Country. That means some rights that the Poor can use (Having rights the poor can not afford gives the poor nothing). In Arabia unless you are a member of the Royal family you have no real rights. And even members of the royal Family have few rights if their are out of favor of the inner circle around King Faud.

Thus few people in Arabia (beside the Royal Family) have any real interest in preserving the Kingdom. This is why the Kingdom will fall. The poor and Middle Class will no raise up to defend it and thus when it falls the poor and middle class will just stand aside and leave it fall.

To have a Stable Country THE VAST MAJORITY OF ITS CITIZENS MUST HAVE AN INTEREST IN PRESERVING THE COUNTRY'S EXISTENCE. You do not have that in Arabia today.
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Spazito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 11:41 PM
Response to Reply #22
23. Your posts are excellent, full of information and food for thought...
thanks!
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 11:50 PM
Response to Reply #23
25. You welcome
But it is time for me to go to Sleep. The fall of the House of Saud will occur, the real question is when? And will it be the result of a cut back of oil production or will such a cut back be the product of the Fall of the House of Saud? Either way the price of oil will sky-Rocket.

The House of Saud can not stand, but what how and when it falls is the real questions (and WHO will succeed it).
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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-10-04 12:10 AM
Response to Reply #22
26. So interesting......
that's such an interesting point...."once that decision was made the Roman Republic was doomed....". It appears that the rulers were more interested in preserving their own wealth, and that would be their undoing.

Now I'm curious: what's your take on our own "ruling elite" here in the US?

I see some similarities with the Roman Empire, and the US....no?

After all, there's a new book called "House of Bush, House of Saud" = two peas in a pod.
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-10-04 12:50 AM
Response to Reply #26
27. The poor gets poorer.....
Edited on Thu Jun-10-04 12:52 AM by happyslug
We are on the same path, the Ruling elite are taking more and more of the pie and make sure the working class gets less and less of that pie. That is a recipe for disaster.

If an oil shock hits the US soon (as some people predict) this pattern will accelerate for no one in Government really wants to stop it. You will have blood on the streets if the price of Oil goes to high.

The main reason for this is that the US since WWI has used the Automobile to minimize class conflict. Rich could travel between their expensive homes and their work. The poor could travel between where their work and where their could afford to live. If this pattern in broken the Working class will lose their interest in the preserving this Government. Permanent High Oil prices promises to break that pattern and force radical change that the Ruling elite will oppose.

This opposition will last until someone re-invents the Social Democracy movement of 1880-1920 (i.e. the Radical Socialist and Communists of the period). When this is re-invented people will have a choice and as their interest in the Country declines, the Communists will increase vote getting (through probably not any real political power). Sooner or later the Democratic Party will adopt some of the Program of the Communists (as it did during the New Deal) to get these same votes. The issue will be whether the working class will trust the Democrats at that point in time.

People will want someone who re-present them and will demand radical changes. The GOP and the business community will want to preserve their rights . The Problem will the only way to appease the Working class would be to take some of the rights away from the Business Community. That will be the heart of the problem. How much will the Democrats push for change? The stronger the Communists become the More Radical the Democrats till have to be to undercut them. The DLC (Democratic Leadership Council) may not like the idea of the Democrats turning so far to the economic left. If the Democrats no not preempt the Communists, the Communist will win over the Working Class and the Democratic party will collapse.

On the other hand if the Democratic Party does adopt enough of the Reforms needed it will supplant the GOP as the Dominate Party in the US (as it did in 1932 with the election of FDR and the implementation of FDR's New Deal).

On the other hand this split in the left (and it will occur for the Democrats are NOT as radical as it will need to be to survive) may permit the GOP to stay in power with a minority Government (as Thatcher did doing the 1980s do to the Split in Labor into New Labor and the moderate Social Democratic Party). This is also what a lot of people will NOT want, but at the same time they will not want the fear of the GOP be used to prevent needed reforms. A balancing act will have to be performed by the Democratic Party between the poles of being to moderate and being to radical.

As to the actual Reforms these including the following:
1. Requiring employers to provide day care for their worker's children (which may include permitting children to be with their parents while their parents work in an office).
2. Universal Health care.
3. 50% Income tax on Income over 50,000 (You have to pay for the above somehow).
4. Corporations to be ruled to be creations of the State with all of the restrictions of any other State Created legal being (Including the Requirement that all employees of a Corporation be Civil Service).
5. High Gasoline tax to encourage the development of Mass Transit and discourage Automobile usage.
6. Money from Gasoline taxes be spent on Building (but not operating) mass transit systems, improving inner-city rail and rural roads and Bridges (One of the best way to reduce rural gasoline usage is to make sure Most rural roads and bridges can be used, many rural bridges can not be used and to avoid such bad bridges people have to drive miles out of their way in such detours wasting gasoline).
7. Given that the price of Oil will lead to a return to Rural Areas, the Government should establish a fund to help such movement back to the farm and to help farmers adjust to post-oil farming.
8. Cut the Military 90 % i.e. to its level in 1914 before we expanded it for WWI and WWII and the Cold War.
9. Improvements in the Inner City to facilitate the movement of people to live closer to their work and that such inner city communities be a nice place to live.
10. Funds to encourage bicycling, including bike trails, bike paths, bike lanes even if it means closing down a lane of auto traffic.

All of these will improve this Country, but that large sections of our population will oppose. These radical changes will start the US to adjust to the post-oil world. The Democratic Party have to be willing to implement ALL OF THEM and to take pride in such economic improvements.

(and if you notice a lack of SOCIAL Agenda, you are correct. I am one of those people who believe Economic improvements must occur before Social Improvements. Furthermore I believe if you have economic improvements any needed Social Change will occur as the result of the above Economic changes thus the Democratic Party does not have to address such Social Change until most of the people of the Country would support such changes.)
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cliss Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-10-04 01:07 AM
Response to Reply #27
28. wow. Thanks, hs.
You are so knowledgeable. WHERE do you get your information. I spend several hours per day data-mining for information about what's really going on behind the scenes, what the truth really is about politics, history and so on, and I don't know a fraction of what you know.

(impressed)

I'm going to search for some of your previous posts; I have a hunch you have a lot of the information I'm looking for.
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happyslug Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-10-04 07:44 PM
Response to Reply #28
32. Experience, Education and Understanding
Edited on Thu Jun-10-04 07:55 PM by happyslug
I have always been an avid reader of History. Not so much Who did what but WHY that happened. I like Political History for people are political animals and it is politics that we show how we think.

I did this in Grade school (I hated the Books I had to read for School, I once failed a class for not reading the books the teacher wanted her class to read. She liked Fiction and I preferred non-fiction and I never did read the books she wanted me to read). I did this in High School and College (where I did NOT major in History, preferring to take a business major instead to better understand how our society runs.)

I have NEVER quit reading. Even in law School I read more books than the law books I was suppose to read. I enjoin reading and reading different views of historical incidents.

This has slowly changed me over the years, in Grade School I tended to take the books on face value, after I graduated and read more I began to see that most of the conflicts in the books were NOT conflicts at all but different ways to view the facts. I also began to see that the historical sources of a lot of our history is not only bias but may be wrong.

One of my favorite examples of this was a booklet I read about Hannibal written by a English War Gamer who use to work in British Intelligence. It was Hannibal's victory at Cannae. In the history that has come down to us, the Roman commanders are split, L.Aemilius Paullus OPPOSE Fighting Hannibal at Cannae while his co-commander C.Terrentius Varro wanted to fight. This split in Command lead to the Roman disaster as Cannae. Under Roman rules the Co-commanders of the army switched command each day. Thus Paullus had been in Command the previous day and refused to fight, but when Varro took over Varro sent the army to its defeat.

Now the ex-intelligence officers and war gaming was setting up his war game of the battle of Cannae and than he started to think. Something is wrong here. He than decided to examine this battle and the reports we have about it as if it was a report of a military operation of the old Soviet Union. First he looked at the positions of the two Commanders compared to where such commanders were suppose to be. He finds Varro in the rear (Where the SECOND IN COMMAND IS SUPPOSE TO BE) and Paullus among the Light Calvary (Where the Commander was suppose to be). He counted the days from the Army marched from Rome and the day of the attack was PAULUS day to be in command. He than checked out the position of the camp (we know where it was do the archaeological research) and it does NOT block any of the passes from the valley Hannibal's army was in. The sole reason to have a camp at that point was to LAUNCH AN ATTACK THE NEXT DAY.

Thus if we had to go by these records (not the official histories that have come down to us) it would appear there was NO CONFLICT IN COMMAND, BOTH COMMANDERS WERE COMMITTED TO THE ATTACK ON HANNIBAL'S Army.

As to the split in Command, these same two Commanders Had worked together in previous Campaigns. Furthermore Varro was sent on Military missions for 20 years AFTER this defeat (which would NOT have been the case if he had been in command on that day).

Thus the non-history record indicate one thing PAULUS was in Command and he lost the Battle. The Books are wrong but that leads us to why?

The Why was quick to find out. While Varro survived the Battle, his family line died out within 100 years of the battle. On the other hand Paullus's family was still an important name in Roman Politics 100 years later when the histories were written, paid for by Paullus's family.

Now you may asked why people did not write alternative history, and the answer is who was going to pay to write that history? The state of Rome did not care. Varro losing the battle did not affect the average Roman. Furthermore this is all pre-printing press so the purpose of a book was NOT for the book to be read but for the book to be heard. What I mean by this is books were written and than HAND COPIED. Than these books were taken by professional Speakers AND READ TO LARGE CROWDS OF PEOPLE as entertainment. These works were to be HEARD NOT READ. The people who read these books were people paid to do so by local Politicians trying to show the people WHY they should vote for him i.e. MY FATHER, IF HE HAD BEEN IN COMMAND, WOULD HAVE DEFEATED HANNIBAL SO VOTE FOR ME.

This is an inherent prejudice of the Historical record. One as I read ancient history I have become more and more award of. People write histories for many purposes but until the 1800s rarely was that reason for anything other than propaganda. These books would be kept as a historical record and used as such, but WHY they were written in the first place should not be forgotten.

Also do not read to much into "changes" in versions of books. I read an English translation of the existing Greek version of Josephus's "The Jewish War". In a footnote the translator mentioned the "Slovak" version of the same book. He mention that the Slavonic Version contained several minor changes, including a description of early Christians. The big change in the Book was when the Writer (who had participated in the Revolt and than Switched to the Romans) talked about how he survived a suicide pact much like the one in Masada. In Masada and when Josephus was surrounded by the Romans, the Jews decided to kill themselves before they were taken by the Romans. In both cases the Men killed the woman and children and than took lots with 1/2 would kill the other half. Than lots again as to who would kill the other half and so forth until only one person would be left and was to kill himself. In the Greek Version Josephus says by the Grace of God he was the last one standing and thus gave himself up to the Romans. In the Slovak version, he counts the numbers and makes sure he is the last one alive.

One historian dismissed the Slavonic version as a Medieval Christian addition to the Greek Version (and not a good addition). Another historian looks at the same and ask why would a medieval Monk want to change a story of how Josephus survived? I tend to the later Historian who believes what happen is that in the 9th Century AD Two Greek Versions of Josephus's book Survived. Sometime after finishing the book Josephus realized that it would not be good for him to be viewed as a conniving Jew so he changed How he survived.

Remember that Josephus wrote the Book in an attempt to increase the pension he received from the Flavian Dynasty of Rome, the founder of that Dynasty, Vespasian had been the Roman Commander that defeated the Jewish revolt and had used Josephus as part of that effort. Josephus was trying to show how valuable he had been to the Dynasty and that they should increase his pension. This is why the Book was written NOT to inform us of what really happened.

Thus while Josephus had good reason to change how he was spared, why did he remove the reference to the Christian. Furthermore the doctrine set forth in the "Jewish War" is NOT medieval Christian dogma (which would have been while known to a Christian Monk). Thus it is unlikely to be such an medieval forgery. The better explanation is that Christians were already in high enough number to have been exposed to the book and had told him of his error. Rather than correct the error he just deleted the reference to the Christians.

Now you may ask why would Josephus's book be in Slovak? While in the 9th Century AD Both the Pope in Rome and the Patriarch of Constantinople agreed that the best why to spread the Gospel to the Slavs was to translate the Gospel to Slovak (Called Church Slovak). In addition other books were translated from Latin and Greek to Slovak. Somehow Josephus first version of the "Jewish War" was translated to Slovak (Probably at the request of some pagan Slav who wanted to read any other ancient reports on the early Christians). Thus the First Version was translated and survives in its Slovak translation.

Now you may ask why did it not survive in its Greek original? The answer to that is Linen based paper only last about 1000 years thus unless a book was re-copied by some medieval monk it was generally lost. Thus we have the complete versions of Homer's two epics, Iliad and the Odysseys. but only parts of his third, "The Returns" (Which is how the rest of the Greek return from Troy). The monks did copy Josephus's existing Greek Version of his "Jewish war" but apparently did not get around to coping what I will call his "First Version".

Remember the monks had to have a reason to copy these books. Often the reason was to make a copy for another religious order or someone who could read Latin or Greek. Thus unless someone made a request for a copy none were made (and given the limitation of the time period the people making the request may not even had known of the "First Version").

Now someone had it translated to Slovak. That is a much more interesting question. Why and for whom? Within 200 years Church Slovak had been abolished replaced by Latin among the Western Slavs and Greek among the Southern and Eastern Slavs. This book was thus forgotten, but the difference between it and the Existing Greek Versions shows that even in ancient times people would spin history either by re-writing the facts (i.e. I survived by the Grace of God instead of Counting the straws) or dropping errors (As Josephus apparently did with regards to the Early Christians).

When you read history remember this, the facts may be true but people have been spinning facts ever since the first historical record was made (which was an ancient battle in Syria between the Egyptian and Hittes of right is now Turkey. From translations of Egyptians hieroglyphics in the early 1800s till the discovery of the Hitte Records in the late 1900s, it was believe that the battle was won by the Egyptians. After the Hitte records were discovered (As a big block of stones in a field that no one had any use for until someone saw they had writing on them) it was found out that the Generous Peace the Pharaoh had "given" to the Hittes had been the product of an Hitte Victory. The Pharaoh controlled the news media of his day and spinned his defeat into a Victory where he was generous to the vanquished.

Watch for spin and agenda. For example the above comments on monk's doing a bad addition to Josephus was in my opinion a product of someone looking for a reason to attack the Slovak Version of Josephus's "The Jewish War". The Writer's agenda was to show how "bad" such monks were. In the historical records the Monks were NOT that bad. The monks tried to make accurate copies (many of them knew how to copy the letters but could not read so some errors did creep in) but as a whole very few "additions". Furthermore when such additions were made it was better done than in this case.

Some advice, when you read accept the facts that are being present to you but keep an open mind that if the facts have very limited source they may be in error (But do NOT jump to the conclusions that since a source is limited it is in error). Read more than one version of the topic (if possible) and read related items.

One person told me to question everything, and that is wrong how can you question if you do not know the subject? Read read and think and discuss ideas with people these threads are excellent for such thinking. Do not be afraid to say something wrong, it is probably not wrong just a novel way to view something.

Also as you age you get more and more experience. I remember listening to my father tell stories of his life and I could not tell as good as stories. Now that I am approaching his age when I was born I can do almost as good. Not because I am a better story teller, but I have the experience to have a good story to tell. Listen to your "elders" they may not be as smart as you are, but they have a lot of experience to share (and some of that experience is from their "elders"). Listen, Think, read, listen and make some comments. The comments may be wrong, but it shows that you are thinking.

I am going to end this here, I can not come to a good ending but I am babbling on. When I review this is a few months I will probably come up with a good ending but I can not right now and this has to end (Another thing that is a product of Experience knowing it is time to quit).



For more on Hannibal: (No this is NOT a cite where the above is discussed, this cite accepts the traditional version of Cannae):
http://www.barca.fsnet.co.uk/

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oblivious Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-09-04 11:18 PM
Response to Reply #19
21. You're pretty informative for a slug.
I like posts like that.
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JCMach1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-10-04 02:22 AM
Response to Original message
29. Saudi Arabia will eventually fall, the only question is where
will it land.

We have many young and wealthy and middle-class Saudis who attend our University. Virtually none of them trust or support the monarchy.
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Jim Warren Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-10-04 03:43 AM
Response to Original message
31. Best of DU
Great thread, makes sifting through the sometimes ponderous amount of bandwidth totally worthwhile.
I was thinking this by the time I read Voltaire's post and then got to happyslug. Wow, amazing to find this level of thought on a message board.
Big tip 'o the cap to those two, bookmarked!
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