POLL DOUBT FOR BLAIR

[mom cat]

POLL DOUBT FOR BLAIR

A Sky News poll suggests that if the local elections had been a general election, Tony Blair would still be the Prime Minister, but without an overall majority.

In the biggest online survey of British opinion, YouGov questioned around 6,000 electors.


And the results suggest that Labour would get 32% of the vote, the Tories 36%, Lib Dems 18%, UK Independence Party 7% and other parties 7%.

In the House of Commons that would give Labour 327 seats, down 86; the Tories 257, up 91; Lib Dems 46, down 6, other parties 29 - but UKIP would not get a single seat on those figures

http://www.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,30000-13125048,00.html

[JohnLocke]

1. WTC?

Tories UP 91 seats?

[rooboy]

2. Unfortunately Sky polls are worth less than Fox polls...

but there is no doubt Blair is 'on the nose'...

[girl gone mad]

3. He only has until next May..

to call an election, right? I don't think things will improve enough in Iraq by then, but I also have heard that there aren't any good alternatives to Blair.

[AP]

4. He has until 2006, but he only needs to be cool until November.

I guarantee you giving Blair breathing room is going to be a major priority for Kerry if he wins.

[AndyTiedye]

5. Bush* Hits the Trifecta Again

His blackmail of Blair has him on the verge of hitting another trifecta:

1. He forced the UK to back the illegal war, so he has at least one ally with a real military.
2. He has ruined Blair and the Labour Party.
3. This will bring the Tories back into power in the UK for another generation. :puke:

[LSdemocrat]

6. You Gov surveys are worthless and have a pro-Tory bias

They only do online polling, and since Conservative voters tend to have higher rates of internet access than non-Tory voters, You Gov polls generally significantly overstate the Tories share of the vote.

[muriel_volestrangler]

7. 4 weeks out of date

the report is from Friday, 11 June. This is not Late Breaking News by anyone's definition.

I think this is the latest opinion poll:

"With less than a year until the expected General Election, Labour is up two points on 33 per cent, while the Tories are on 29 per cent. The Liberal Democrats also receive a boost ahead of next week’s two Parliamentary by-elections, with support up two points at 24 per cent. "

http://news.scotsman.com/uk.cfm?id=773862004

[Oggy]

8. The two by-elections

will be a better guide than recent polls. The Butler report is out the day before though so may skew the result depending on the conclusions. It is expected this report will be more critical that the Hutton report ( so there is not the same whitewash backlash ), but is still likely to critise procedures rather than individuals. So Bliar may well get off again.

[muriel_volestrangler]

9. Hmm, much as I'd like to take by-elections as guides

to general elections (being a Lib Dem supporter), I have to say that the Lib Dems normally do far better in by-elections - where they get a protest vote, and are able to concentrate their party assets - than they do in general elections. They can indicate a trend (for instance whether people are still more pissed off with Conservatives, or New Labour), but the figures can't be extrapolated accurately.

[Moderator]

10. This story appears to be from June 11

In LBN, please post only stories that are from within the last 12 hours. Thanks.