STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 8 July

[ozymandius]

Thursday July 8, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 200
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 209 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 263 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 476
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 959
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions: :bounce: Ken Lay :bounce:
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 7, 2004

Dow... 10,240.29 +20.95 (+0.21%)
Nasdaq... 1,966.08 +2.65 (+0.13%)
S&P 500... 1,118.33 +2.12 (+0.19%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.47% -0.01 (-0.18%)
Gold future... 402.70 +9.50 (+2.42%)


|||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

ONE WEEK REPORT CARD FOR FEDERAL RESERVE RATE INCREASE

Stock prices reached their high for the day in the first hour of trading and struggled the balance of today’s trading session, the U.S. dollar slid lower with the weakening economic data so far this week, gold reacted violently higher after yesterday’s unwarranted beating, and bond prices were flat to slightly higher with today’s auction of $15 billion of five-year Treasury debt. I’m calling this the report card for the Federal Reserve one week post interest rate increase, but it’s actually a report on how the markets have reacted to the lack of aggressiveness by the Fed to curb inflation and strengthen the dollar. In last week’s commentary after the 25 basis point increase from the Fed, I closed by saying, “I expect the dollar to resume its decline, gold to start moving higher again, stocks to remain in a trading range before resuming their primary bear market, and bond prices to bounce slightly higher over the next week or two before resuming the long-term downtrend.” Since Mr. Greenspan spoke, the dollar is down about two percent, gold is almost $10 higher, the Dow Industrials are down by almost 200 points and bond prices have moved up. It’s not every day I hit four out of four with the near-term direction of multiple asset groups, so I’ll attempt to cover each area to follow through from last week.

Economic Factors

In economic releases over the past week, retail sales have been declining, jobless claims were higher than expected and job creation for June was only half of what was anticipated, wage data came in weaker than expected, the manufacturing index fell and the ISM Services Index (85% of our economy) fell more than expected yesterday. We are seeing a loss of momentum from the stimulus of low interest rates, tax rebates and increased government spending. The weakening data has put downward pressure on the dollar and stocks, but the inflation is still out there supporting low interest rates (more money in bonds) high home prices and rising commodity prices.

The Perpetual Borrowing Machine

The U.S. Treasury was forced to borrow more money today by selling $15 billion of five-year Treasury notes and tomorrow they plan to sell $10 billion of ten-year TIPS (inflation indexed notes). Treasury debt of all maturities was virtually unchanged today as is normal for most government auction days. I can still see some potential upside for bonds, especially if something ugly is brewing in the stock market…money will move to short-dated bonds in a flight to safety if stocks break down significantly. The next possible threat to the bond market could come next week when the data is released for both the CPI and PPI. If the Consumer and Producer Price Indices come in anywhere close to the increase we saw last week in the personal consumption expenditures deflator (an inflation measure closely watched by the Fed higher by 0.5% last week = highest in 14 years) we will see bond prices tumble. My gut feel says they will do everything possible to keep the inflation figures muted by taking as many adjustments necessary to keep the number under control.

Stocks Look Dangerous

Stocks have struggled all four trading days since the Fed announced the rate increase. After three days in the red, the broad stock indices barely made it into positive territory today. The Dow Industrials gained 20 points to 10,240, the NASDAQ Composite added two points to close at 1,966 and the S&P 500 rose two points to 1,118. The bad economic reports have investors concerned about prospects for the second half of the year. General Motors and Ford are being forced to increase their rebates to help pick-up sales, we’ve had a number of profit warnings from the software and semiconductor sectors, PeopleSoft missed their sales forecast and profits fell, Alcoa missed by a penny today and sold-off 3% in after-hours trading, and generally speaking…it doesn’t look good for stocks at this point.

The markets have gone nowhere for six months now

[54anickel]

42. I dunno Ozy, this sounds like a dangerous game they are playing.

In order to become competitive globally, we will need to devalue the dollar thereby making U.S. goods more affordable overseas and imported goods more expensive here at home. The “strong dollar policy” of Clinton, Rubin, Summers, Snow, Bush and Greenspan that began in 1995 has come to an end, or at least the jig-is-up by letting the inflation cat out of the bag. What they have done in the last ten years is actually quite amazing. I don’t have the exact data, but try to envision all the many thousands of billions of dollars that have been created out of thin air in the last ten years. With the monetary expansion in mind, the dollar (based on the U.S. Dollar Index) is not far from where it was back in 1995. They increased the supply of dollars tremendously via credit expansion since then, but the dollar didn’t collapse in purchasing power and didn’t force the cost of credit higher…these forces are now coming home to roost.

snip>

For now the U.S. Dollar Index is testing the low from April 1st at 87.65. The next test for support should come at 85.50 (the low so far this year in mid-February). When 85.50 is broken to the downside, I will look for support in the 80-82 area which was the low going all the way back to 1995 and gold hovered around $400 for the year. A drop to 80 should be enough to push gold near $475 an ounce, or better yet, a gold move to $475 will push the dollar lower…by next year we probably see the yen at parity with the penny (both at 100 per dollar) and the euro in the $1.30-$1.35 range. For now I’m confident enough our officials would like to see a lower dollar and everything is in place to make it happen…a weakening economy, increased spending for war, trade deficits, government deficits and artificially low interest rates with a need to borrow increasing amounts of money to keep things rolling.


In today's articles we have Russians buying dollars due to lack of confidence in the Ruble, we have US investors buying foreign currency and to some extent gold due to lack of confidence in the US buck. Japan's recovery is questionable as that's been running hot and cold - same for the US. China's heated up but is far from an investor friendly atmosphere these days, Intellectual Property Rights still being one of the many stumbling blocks there. Seems like there's just "nowhere to run to, nowhere to hide" these days.

[KoKo]

53. Agree "54" a very dangerous game, and one that it seems "the big boys"

are even having trouble sorting out. It sounds like Bush might have a hard time keeping things upbeat to the election. They've pulled out all the stops but more and more articles keep coming out cautioning if not outright warning that there is big trouble ready to explode.

[54anickel]

55. Hi KoKo! Good to see you again. These are interesting times indeed.

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.76 Change +0.11 (+0.13%)

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1089278717-9e32d306-15760

Forex - Dollar remains weak on diminished hopes of rapid US rate hikes

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar remained weak against the euro and sterling after hitting three-month lows overnight on concerns that the US Federal Reserve may delay its next rate hike beyond the next meeting following last week's 25 basis point increase. Recent weak US economic data, particularly last Friday's disappointing US jobs report for June, have put an end to hopes of rapid interest rate hikes

Sentiment was further dented as Yahoo's disappointing results overnight added to the list of weak earnings statements coming out of the US, with stock market futures indicating that Wall Street is likely to open in the red. Steve Pearson, chief currency strategist at HBOS said recent weak US economic data have failed to confirm a robust economic outlook and have "tempered market estimates of the degree of monetary tightening the Fed will deliver"

If today's US jobless claims are strong, however, this could give a boost to the dollar, Pearson said, while WestLB noted that downward pressure on the dollar "should remain limited" ahead of next week's crucial US trade data

Sterling remained fairly strong, supported by the weaker dollar, though trading was quiet ahead of the Bank of England's rate decision later today, with the bank largely expected to leave its key repo rate unchanged at 4.50 pct

...more...

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1089258304-9e32d306-04127

Forex - Dollar higher at Tokyo midday on short-covering after overnight slide

TOKYO (AFX-ASIA) - The dollar was pushed higher against other major currencies on technically-driven short-covering after falling to a three-month low against the euro overnight, dealers said

But due to uncertainties over the trend of interest rates and the equity market in the US, the underlying sentiment towards the US currency is bearish

At 12:15 pm (0315 GMT), the US unit was quoted at 108.73 yen after trading in a range of 108.39-108.78 yen in Tokyo. That compared with 108.56 yen earlier in Sydney and at 108.50 in late New York

The euro stood at 1.2347 usd and 134.25 yen after moving in ranges of 1.2347-1.2382 usd and 134.08-134.48 yen. The euro had been at 1.2367 in early Sydney and 1.2368 in late New York

The dollar dropped as low as 108.39 yen and 1.2382 against the euro earlier, in a continued reaction to stronger German data, a slightly weaker-than- expected Institute of Supply Management US services index on Tuesday and the slide of the Nasdaq 100 futures on the Globex market

But the US unit recovered some lost ground against the yen and the euro on short-covering, while the yen was weighed down somewhat by concerns over the weekend upper house election in Japan

There are lingering worries that the vote could spell problems for the financial reforms backed by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Mikio Aoki, who heads the party's upper house caucus, said over the weekend the prime minister should resign if his party fails to hold onto 51 seats in the House of Councillors election July 11

While a disappointing showing in the election is unlikely to lead to Koizumi's resignation, analysts said it could complicate his efforts to push ahead with reforms

"However, as the dollar had already failed to break through the 110 yen level despite such positive leads as the pre-election jitters and the tumbling stock market, the possibility has become stronger that the dollar, should there be any negative leads, will fall back against the yen," said Kazuhiro Nishina, foreign exchange dealer at Aozora Bank

...more...

It's MaeveDay!

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[ozymandius]

16. Dollar Rises After U.S. Jobless Claims Fall

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the euro on Thursday after a plunge in U.S. weekly jobless claims gave some support to a weakened U.S. currency, which has been under pressure amid expectations the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) appears likely to raise rates more slowly than first expected.

-cut-

Slower rises in U.S. rates, which the Fed increased last week for the first time in four years, mean the differential in interest rates between the dollar and higher-yielding currencies will narrow more slowly.

"We have seen a lot of volatility in the foreign exchange market after the report as it was a much bigger drop in claims than expected, but obviously there is a seasonal issue, which seems to have reversed much of the knee-jerk dollar gains," said Lara Rhame, senior economist at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

"However, it is good news in the wake of the latest jobs report. We also had continuing claims take a nice fall. Net, net, the number is positive for both the dollar and the economy," she said.

story

[Maeve]

3. Initial Claims fall to lowest since Oct 2000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38176.3550694444-815796166&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&
WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - The number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time fell sharply in the latest week to its lowest level in nearly four years, the Labor Department said Thursday. The number of so-called initial claims fell 39,000 to 310,000 in the week ended July 3, while the the key four-week moving average of seasonally adjusted new claims fell by 10,250 to 336,000. The number of initial claims is the lowest level since October 2000. Economists prefer the four-week average over the volatile weekly figure, which is subject to seasonal factors.

For those keeping track--last week's numbers were 351K, now revised down to 349K and this week's figures were expected to be 340-345K

[Frodo]

4. Needs to have a couple more weeks before it means anything.

One week dives or skyrockets aren't too important.

But it's nice to see a good number like that.

[ozymandius]

12. But these are just "new" figures, right?

This says nothing about job creation or the numbers of previously counted first-time filers, right?

[Frodo]

17. Right. And it looks like it's mostly in the seasonal adjustment.

They appearently expected an annual layoff in the auto industry to happen this week that hasn't happened yet. Likely means one of the next two weeks will come in high.

[54anickel]

20. Delayed Shutdowns Affect Jobless Claims

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/ap/2004/07/08/ap1447450.html

snip>
The Labor Department reported Thursday that new applications for unemployment insurance plunged by a seasonally adjusted 39,000 to 310,000 for the week ending July 3. That marked the best showing since Oct. 8, 2000. The latest snapshot of the layoffs climate was better than economists were expecting. They were forecasting claims to decline to around 345,000.

Still, last week's decline was probably exaggerated by seasonal adjustment difficulties related to temporary closings of auto plants for annual retooling for new model cars, a Labor Department analyst cautioned. The figures ended up being adjusted for auto plant closings, which take place each summer. Although some closings took place last week, bigger companies weren't expected to start their temporary shutdowns until the following week, the analyst explained.

snip>

On the layoffs front, jobless claims figures are notoriously volatile - meaning they can swing widely from week to week - especially during this time of year, when temporary shutdowns occur at auto plants, impacting jobs in related industries.

As a result, economists tend to look more closely at another barometer contained in the report: the more stable four-week moving average of claims, which smooths out week-to-week fluctuations.

The four-week moving average of new claims dropped last week by a seasonally adjusted 10,250 to 336,000. That marked the lowest level since May 22.

The number of people continuing to draw unemployment benefits fell by 85,000 to 2.87 million for the week ending June 26, the most recent period for which this information is available. A year ago, the number of people continuing to collect benefits stood at 3.70 million.

more...

[Coventina]

5. Great to see Kenny Boy do the perp walk

Now we'll see if anything actually comes of it.....

[UpInArms]

6. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

8:38AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -3.4. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.0. Slight bounce in futures market following the claims data, but cash market still in store for a weak start

8:23AM: S&P futures vs fair value: - 4.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.5. Little change in the negative pre-market tone, and thus, the cash market is still slated for a weak open... in addition to recent earnings disappointments, market also not that impressed by the retailers' same-store sales results for June

8:02AM: S&P futures vs fair value: - 4.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.0. Stage is set for a negative open as the futures market sports a bearish bias after being unimpressed with the earnings reports from Yahoo! (YHOO) and Alcoa (AA); moreover, continued warnings from the software group - SEBL and BMC - are doing little to improve sentiment toward technology shares

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extended Tuesday's sharp decline and is challenging the 62% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1434.57. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends Tuesday's decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1414.51 is the next downside target. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 12.00 pts. at 1442 as of 6:53 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends Tuesday's decline and is challenging the 50% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1112.70. If this support level is broken, the 62% retracement level crossing at 1104.86 is the next downside target. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The September S&P 500 Index was down 4.60 pts. at 1113.50 as of 6:55 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to weaker opening when the day session begins later this morning

[ozymandius]

7. Snow: wearing fishnets, heels and a tube top

Snow: Lawsuits Restraining Economy

PORTLAND, Maine (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow began sharpening his message on Thursday about the need to rein in lawsuits, only days after Democrats tapped a trial lawyer to run for vice president in November's general election.

Interviewed on a local radio station in Portland at the beginning of a two-day swing through Maine and New Hampshire, Snow said so-called tort reform was moving higher on the nation's economic agenda.

"Frivolous, abusive" lawsuits restrained the nation's economic growth, Snow said. "It's become a drag on the American economy, hurts job creation and sends jobs off-shore."

more...

[ozymandius]

8. It gets funnier.

Just too much!

"I give a lot of credit to the Federal Reserve (news - web sites) for good monetary policy, but without the tax cuts we wouldn't be seeing the GDP (news - web sites) (gross domestic product) growth rates and job growth we are," he said.

Cheney must be choreographing his whorish prancing about.

[UpInArms]

9. how appropriate!

Now that most of the * cabal has had to hire attorneys they express the contempt for attorneys.

[54anickel]

14. SNARF!!!

[UpInArms]

10. Japanese premier sees his popularity melt

http://news.ft.com/servlet/ContentServer?pagename=FT.com/StoryFT/FullStory&c=StoryFT&cid=1087373572312

When Junichiro Koizumi became prime minister of Japan three years ago, his popularity rating was over 90 per cent.

Today, three days ahead of Sunday's parliamentary elections, the electorate has rounded on its former champion. Mr Koizumi's popularity has more than halved to 40 per cent - its lowest level since he took office - and the public is describing him in previously unheard terms of denigration.

Foremost among these is the term ogori, which means arrogance or conceit, a characteristic deeply frowned upon in Japanese politics.

The accusation was first made after Mr Koizumi was asked about his failure to pay contributions to the state pension scheme and he replied: "There are various lives and various companies" - meaning he can do what he wants.

Mr Koizumi's throwaway line came as his government pushed a bill through parliament to increase the public's pension contributions while cutting their benefits.

...more...

[54anickel]

45. Wow, those Japanese are tough on a guy. Compare his one little

"throwaway" line to the "ogori" BS this mal-admin spouts daily and Shrub should be polling in the basement.

[54anickel]

11. Mid Week Analysis - Mixed signals

http://www.prudentbear.com/midweekanalysis.asp

After last week’s spree of economic data, this is a relatively quiet week as investors await the start of second quarter earnings announcements. Besides a few S&P 500 companies reporting on Wednesday and Thursday, investors will be focusing on retailers when they report June same store sales results on Thursday.

Last week the Institute of Supply Managers reported that its index measuring economic activity slipped 1.7 points to 61.1. This was the lowest level since October 2003 and almost all components of the index showed a decline. One Wall Street economist commented that new orders have declined for six consecutive months and this has only happened four times and each of those was during recessions or was a prelude to one. The only problem with using these historical data points is that in each case the sub-index fell below 50, which indicates a contraction in new orders. Currently, the index is at 60, which is still higher than two-thirds of the months going back to 1948.

In one of the rare periods, the service sector of the economy is lagging the manufacturing sector, at least according the recent ISM surveys. The non-manufacturing report on business showed that business activity index fell 5.3 points to 59.9. This was the lowest point this year and steepest decline since October 2001. The decline is a bit of a mystery considering that seven of the nine components increased. Only backlog of orders and imports fell. Employment increased 1.1 points to 57.4, which is the highest since the index was started in 1997. This is interesting since the employment report from the Bureau of Labor showed that few jobs were created in June than economists had predicted.

Just as investors were getting used to 200,000 jobs being created each month, the June labor report showed a gain of only 112,000. The weaker than expected employment adds a degree of uncertainty regarding the strength of the economy and perhaps gives the Fed an excuse to remain “measured” longer expected last week. This will also make investors focus on other data points for clues on the health of the labor markets. The recent job cuts tally from Challenger, Gray and Christmas does not offer any conclusive evidence. The outplacement firm reported that 64,343 layoffs were announced last month, up from 59,715 last June, but down from 73,368 last month. Additionally, the company found that hiring intentions fell 31% from the previous month.

snip>

While earnings for most companies appear to be good, several technology companies have reported that second quarter earnings will not meet analysts’ estimates. Enterprise software companies seem to be having the most troubles. Veritas, BMC, Siebel, and Peoplesoft all announced earnings would be lower than analysts forecasts. Most said that companies delayed purchasing decisions and the weakness was not due to underlying economic weakness. This has lead investors to fear that the recovery in business spending has come to a halt.

more...

[UpInArms]

13. Painful pension reform in Japan

http://www.iht.com/bin/print.php?file=528491.html

TOKYO Terubumi Nakada, a retiree in Kasukabe, north of Tokyo, says a new law that will cut his ¥130,000 monthly pension by as much as a sixth has forced him to seek a part-time job.

"There isn't any work for young people, and there definitely isn't any for people of my age," said Nakada, 62, who retired in December as a metals inspector at Kasukabe-based Nich KK, and whose pension is worth $1,182 a month.

Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's proposal to bolster Japan's two largest pension plans by reducing payments and raising contributions may backfire on Sunday when voters choose half of the 242 lawmakers in Japan's upper house. Nakada said he would switch his allegiance and vote against Koizumi's governing Liberal Democratic Party.

An opinion poll by the Nihon Keizai newspaper last week found that 65 percent of 18,965 likely voters opposed the pension changes. A Yomiuri newspaper survey of 51,365 electors last week showed the opposition Democratic Party would win the most seats.

Still, the results are unlikely to overturn the dominance of the upper house by the LDP and a coalition partner, the Yomiuri survey found.

The two pension plans for nongovernment workers paid out a total of ¥629 billion more than they collected in the fiscal year that ended March 2003, according to the Health Ministry, which has not released more recent results.

<snip>

"Disposable income will fall for employees, which is a minus for consumption," said Hiroshi Iida, general manager of investor relations at Isetan, the fourth-largest department store chain in Japan. "Consumers are worried about their future and what will happen to their pensions, and that can cause people to save their money."

...more...

[54anickel]

15. SEC probes hedge funds over "Pipe" deals - WSJ

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040708/financial_fund_hedges_1.html

NEW YORK, July 8 (Reuters) - U.S. regulators are probing about 20 instances in which hedge funds may have used insider information to profit from forthcoming stock offerings, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

The review focuses on deals known as private investments in public equity, or "Pipe" transactions, in which companies with limited financing options sell investors discount-priced stock that cannot be traded publicly until a later date, the newspaper reported, citing unidentified people familiar with the matter.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is looking at whether hedge funds, tipped off to Pipe deals by brokers, made bets against the companies' stocks before the deals were consumated and publicly announced, the Journal said.

more...

[54anickel]

18. China defends decision to overturn Pfizer's Viagra patent

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1518&ncid=1518&e=5&u=/afp/20040708/bs_afp/china_us_drug_pfizer_040708071627

SHANGHAI (AFP) - China defended its decision to overturn Pfizer's patent for Viagra in a ruling seen as a setback to protection of intellectual property rights in the country.

The US makers of the top selling erectile disfunction drug were in breach of China's intellectual property rights (IPR) law when they failed to accurately explain "technological" uses of Viagra's key ingredient, an official with the State Intellectual Property Office told AFP Thursday.

"If you widen the description of the (ingredient's) technological uses, you could likely be violating the patent right of others," the SIPO official said on condition of anonymity.

Although the same office granted Pfizer in 2001 a patent for sildenafil citrate, Viagra's key active ingredient, the official maintained SIPO had the right to revoke the patent.

The official said after approval of sildenafil citrate, more than 10 Chinese companies filed official complaints, forcing the SIPO to review its decision.

snip>

"We did grant the patent to Pfizer before, but that does not mean that we are really giving it to you."

I think there's going to be a bit of a learning curve for US companies when doing business in China. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

19. Nervous Depositors Make Run on Banks (Russia)

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/stories/2004/07/08/002.html

Rumor fueled fear and fear fueled panic, sparking the biggest run on Russian banks since the 1998 crisis.

Spooked by the closure Tuesday of mid-sized Guta and reports that top-tier Alfa was on the ropes, depositors descended on banks in droves Wednesday, intensifying a trend that has seen an estimated $5 billion, or about 10 percent of all household savings, taken out of the system in the last two months.

"It's like 1998 all over again," Nikolai, a travel agency manager in his mid-40s, said as he squeezed into a packed Alfa Express branch near Sokol metro station. "I don't have much money here, but I am going to cash out just to be safe."

After three bank closures in as many months -- each bigger than the last -- intervention and reassurance by the Central Bank was not enough to calm growing concerns that a full-fledged crisis was in the making.

more...

[54anickel]

21. Ruble Has Biggest Drop in Month on Concern About Russia's Banks

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000006&sid=auk2CQilFnto&refer=home

July 8 (Bloomberg) -- The ruble fell the most against the dollar in a month after Moody's Investors Service said it may reduce the credit ratings of 18 Russian lenders, adding to concern about the stability of the country's banks.

Demand for the ruble has waned since Tuesday when Moscow- based Guta Bank halted withdrawals. Moody's announcement of its review yesterday came within hours of the central bank halving reserve limits in a bid to revive confidence in the industry.

``Next week quite a big additional mass of rubles will come to the market,'' said Alexander Karpov, head of foreign exchange and money markets at Bank Zenit in Moscow. ``Nobody expected they'd cut reserve requirements that much.''

snip>

Some investors also sold the ruble as OAO Yukos Oil Co., Russia's largest oil producer, struggles to resolve a tax dispute with the government that may bankrupt the company, said Peter Redward, head of emerging markets currency research at Deutsche Bank AG in London.

snip>

``People are nervous,'' said Igor Vasiliev, director of financial markets operations at Alfa. ``The population is buying dollars and ruble liquidity is rising.''

[54anickel]

37. Mamayev Kurgan

Motherland Russia is calling once again, her banking system an open cry shouting West.

This morning's latest issuance sounds a bit like John Snow bull horning the dollar in order to avoid an untimely, pre-election attack, but very little nowadays is what it appears.

snip>

Given the praise lauded upon the Russian Banking System in March of this year, one must wonder what has transpired. Clearly, Bank Reserve requirements are not halved due to wellness. It appears the Russian Central Bank has begun to backtrack from its attempted purge of Laundromatic Banks having grossly underestimated its effect upon CONfidence.

Sodbiznesbank and CreditTrust liquidations, although smaller in scope of operations, clearly sent a signal to an already-shaken foundation, not six years young. Yet, larger Banks such as Alfa and Dialog-Optim are screaming foul play in attempted hostile takeovers of their asset bases for Kopeks on the Ruble. This is lent credence by the Central Bank announcement on July 7 that Guta Bank, with half a million private clients, "may" be bought by state-owned Vneshtorgbank. Banking consolidation does, in fact, lead to even broader powers and control, so it's no stretch to wonder, if by design, the entire crisis was not fabricated in order to tip the ministry of "word doctors" hand at the Russian Central Bank.

snip>

Stand back, as it's certainly going to be interesting. Economic regimes 'round the Globe appear to be faltering by design, by an "invisible hand" or perhaps by their own. The Russian Oligarchs are being driven out by the Statist 'powers that be' accused of Wild Cat operations in Energy, Mining and now Banking.

more...

[54anickel]

22. Retailers Blame Weather for Poor Sales

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=5619204

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT.N: Quote, Profile, Research) and other U.S. retailers reported disappointing June sales on Thursday as unusually cool, wet weather in parts of the country hurt demand for summer merchandise.

Some specialty retailers also warned of worse-than-expected profits because of the poor sales performance.

Stage Stores Inc. (STGS.O: Quote, Profile, Research) said its full-year earnings would miss analysts' estimates, while teen-oriented apparel chain Wet Seal Inc. (WTSLA.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and children's clothing company Children's Place Retail Stores Inc. (PLCE.O: Quote, Profile, Research) both forecast wider-than-expected quarterly losses.

snip>

Wal-Mart and other retailers had reported robust demand in the first half of June, but temperatures turned colder around mid-month, hurting Father's Day sales and curbing demand for items such as lawn and garden equipment and pool toys.

Weather forecaster Planalytics said temperatures last week averaged 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit cooler than a year ago from the U.S. Southwest, through the Plains and into the Northeast.

Analysts have said it is too soon to determine whether the weak June sales meant a slowdown in consumer spending, but added that if sales do not pick up with warmer weather in July, earnings forecasts could be in jeopardy.

[54anickel]

25. Update 1: Retailers Report Mixed Sales in June

http://www.forbes.com/work/feeds/ap/2004/07/08/ap1447531.html

A slow start to summer weather and higher gas prices stifled business at many of the nation's big retailers last month, giving the overall industry a mixed sales performance.

As retailers reported results Thursday, the disappointments cut across industry sectors, with discounters like Wal-Mart Stores Inc., many department stores and some apparel merchants among those falling short of expectations.

J.C. Penney Co. Inc., Neiman Marcus Group, Inc., Saks Inc., AnnTaylor Stores Corp., and Limited Brands were among those whose sales met or beat analyst expectations.

Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer said unseasonably cool weather held sales back, but it is also still struggling with the effects of rising gasoline prices. Wal-Mart Stores said sales from stores open at least a year, known as same-store sales, rose 2.2 percent in June. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call expected 3.6 percent.

Same-store sales are considered the best indicator of a retailer's health.

more...

[54anickel]

23. Regulators to Examine Shell's Closing of California Refinery

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/08/business/08shell.html?ex=1089950400&?n=dd43e3808e1ca3b4&

WASHINGTON, July 7 (Reuters) - The Federal Trade Commission said Wednesday that it had begun a formal investigation into the Royal Dutch/Shell Group's plan to shut a California oil refinery, after some lawmakers said that closing it would hurt competition and increase gasoline prices on the West Coast.

William E. Kovacic, the F.T.C.'s general counsel, said the agency's investigation would "examine possible antitrust violations" by Shell in closing the 70,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Bakersfield.

The agency regards the investigation "as a matter of particular urgency and importance," Mr. Kovacic said, because Shell plans to close the refinery on Nov. 1.

Mr. Kovacic, who announced the inquiry at a hearing on gasoline prices held by a House Government Reform subcommittee, would not say when the agency planned to complete its investigation.

more...

[UpInArms]

24. Microsoft to 'educate' users on software upgrades

http://www.vnunet.com/news/1156523

Microsoft wants customers yet to upgrade to its latest software versions to 'understand' why they need to do so, and plans to dispel the perception that older versions of its software are 'good enough'.

In a wide-ranging 'state of the nation' email sent to Microsoft employees, chief executive Steve Ballmer said: "So many customers have yet to deploy our most recent advances, so we must not only help them understand why to deploy, but demonstrate the benefits of deploying before we reach the Longhorn generation."

He said the company needed to change customers' perceptions, including the view that "older versions of Office and Windows are good enough and that Microsoft is not sufficiently focused on security".

This, he said, would be achieved by emphasising "key positive perceptions of the strong manageability, and developer and information worker preference, for our platform".

Ballmer said customers were still feeling pain over security issues, but added that products were now being built "in a way that significantly reduces vulnerabilities and customers' exposure to attack".

...more...

Get ready for the "re-education" camp(aign)!

[54anickel]

28. The majority has already been assimulated into MS, now it will be

easy to use FUD to get them to purchase the next upgrade. Works like a champ through each reiteration. Get on board, the trains pulling out and you'll be left behind without all the latest and greatest features.

Now it's get on board or you'll be left vulnerable to attack. You'd think that would backfire on them, but they have the world's greatest marketing department so they'll come up with something besides vulnerability to sell the newest version.

Thing is the new version will just have new vulnerabilities. Guess that's the price MS pays for being #1 - focus attacks on MS as that gets you the biggest "bang for the hack".

If fairness though, last time I was out there they had made quite a few changes in their management and ops for the coding of Longhorn. More focus on security and much more accountability for the sections of code as they are written, tested and approved. At least that's how they "Marketed" the new internal structure of checks & balances. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

35. Microsoft's Worst Enemy: Success

CEO Ballmer's memo to workers was less than inspiring. Unless the giant can reinvent itself, it'll become -- gasp! -- a mature company

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/jul2004/tc2004078_4676_tc120.htm

The memo that Microsoft Chief Executive Steve Ballmer recently sent to the company's 57,000 employees was clearly designed to rally the troops -- to get them excited about their jobs and Microsoft's (MSFT ) future. But what comes through loudest and clearest in the 4,900-word e-mail is quite a different message: This is no longer the vital, nimble, fast-growing Microsoft of yore. Advertisement

Microsoft is stuck in a full-blown midlife crisis. The 24-year-old company is now a sprawling organization with dozens of businesses, modest revenue growth, and a flat stock price. Instead of being driven to change the world -- the mission its best employees signed up for -- a key focus now for Ballmer is "process excellence," which seems unlikely to inspire Microsoftees to stay up all night creating the Next Big Thing.

snip>

What the company needs is a new vision of itself -- one that motivates employees, excites investors, and places it once again in the vanguard of an industry on the march. Sure, with $300,000 in annual expenses per employee, it could use some cost-cutting. And it's about time Microsoft distributed a chunk of its cash to shareholders. But neither of those moves would do anything to restore the company's vitality -- the excitement that pushed its stock price up more than 10,000% in the 1990s.

TRAPPED BY ITS LEGACY. Innovation is the key -- Ballmer says as much in his memo. But in spite of spending more than $4 billion per year on research and development, Microsoft can't seem to beat its rap: It's a follower, not a leader. After all, it was Google that reinvented Internet search with its breakthrough technology and Apple (AAPL ) that led the music industry into the Digital Age.

more...

[Maeve]

26. 10:02 and not a good morning so far

Dow 10,215.44 -24.85 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq 1,953.60 -12.48 (-0.63%)
S&P 500 1,115.11 -3.22 (-0.29%)
10-Yr Bond 4.474% +0.002

[UpInArms]

27. Market Numbers and blather at 10:03 EST

Dow 10,215.29 -25.00 (-0.24%)
Nasdaq 1,953.80 -12.28 (-0.62%)
S&P 500 1,115.19 -3.14 (-0.28%)
10-Yr Bond 4.474% +0.002

9:40AM: Indices open sharply lower as indicated by stock futures, but show some early resilience in choppy action and are off the lows...warnings from software companies including Siebel Systems (SEBL 8.19 -1.02), and an uninspiring earnings report from Yahoo (YHOO 29.11 -3.49) have hit the Nasdaq...soft June same-store sales from retailers such as Wal-Mart (WMT 52.01 -0.31) led to broader negative sentiment early, but retailers have bounced back...Alcoa (AA 32.34 -0.43) earnings disappointment a bearish factor...

9:20AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -2.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.0. Futures market off its lows of the morning, but a lower open is in the cards for the cash market... look for the tech sector to take the lead in weighing on the broader market

dollar

Last trade 87.62 Change -0.03 (-0.03%)

what was that about the dollar going up?

[54anickel]

30. There's those twins again.

Oh, and so much for the rise in the buck, hey? Was a temporary lapse.

[UpInArms]

29. Kenny Boy in 'cuffs

http://www.smh.com.au/ffximage/2004/07/08/200_kennethlay,0.jpg

wonder how he likes his new jewelry?

[UpInArms]

31. Market "Terra" Numbers at 10:21 EST

Dow 10,202.38 -37.91 (-0.37%)
Nasdaq 1,948.76 -17.32 (-0.88%)
S&P 500 1,113.13 -5.20 (-0.46%)
10-Yr Bond 4.466% -0.006

Gack! The Dems are gaining in the polls! Terra! Terra! Terra!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x672217

[wetbandit2003]

32. I think it is humorous.

that wallstreeters will find any excuse to
dump off some stock.....Greed, pure greed.

[UpInArms]

33. but the calvary charges in to save the day!

at 10:39 EST

Dow 10,229.52 -10.77 (-0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,954.04 -12.04 (-0.61%)
S&P 500 1,115.67 -2.66 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.453% -0.019

but the dollar sags further:

Last trade 87.46 Change -0.19 (-0.22%)

[UpInArms]

34. Yahoo stock tumbles (good numbers aren't good enough)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20040708.wyahoo0708/BNStory/Business/

Yahoo Inc. stock fell more than 8 per cent in early trading Thursday as investors reacted to strong — but not strong enough — earnings from the Internet giant.

Shortly after the start of trading, Yahoo shares were down 8.9 per cent or $2.90 (U.S.) to $29.70 on a volume of 17.7 million.

The decline came after the Sunnyvale, California- based company said profit soared to $112.5- million or 8 cents a share from $50.8-million or 4 cents a year ago.

That was in line with analysts' expectations, although some said Thursday investors wanted to see even better results.

...more...

[UpInArms]

36. Market Numbers and blather at 11:18 EST

Dow 10,250.32 +10.03 (+0.10%)
Nasdaq 1,960.72 -5.36 (-0.27%)
S&P 500 1,117.68 -0.65 (-0.06%)
10-Yr Bond 4.461% -0.011

10:55AM: The indices are now right where futures traded ahead of the open...it has been a bit choppy with bouts of selling and attempts to get back to unchanged, but nothing dramatic so far...there are no earnings reports after the close today, but there is the risk of some more warnings...there are even a few software companies that have yet to warn that are on the radar screen of traders...NYSE Adv/Dec 1028/1857, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 879/1842

10:30AM: The indices remain lower under the weight of this morning's negative news in the absence of any significant demand...gold futures are up to $405 an ounce this morning...the stronger bond market, with lower yields, has weakened the dollar...that in turn has provided a lift to gold...NYSE Adv/Dec 1049/1707, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 797/1840

[54anickel]

38. Pegging the dollar or peglegging gold

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/333740.htm

Prior to 1971, gold was central to the international monetary system. The dollar was exchangeable into gold and central banks held a large proportion of their foreign reserves in bullion. This system collapsed because investors came to distrust the dollar. Faced with the prospect that they would not be able to meet the demand for gold, central banks demonetised gold. This, however, did not stop it from reaching very high prices during the 1970’s, rising to a peak of over $800 in 1980.


In the early 1980’s a new economic paradigm developed. Monetary policy was conducted more prudently and markets operated more freely. Consequently, inflation was largely eliminated and trust in currencies was restored. Gold reverted to being purely a commodity consumed mainly in jewellery. Central banks, having a big inventory of gold as a legacy of the fixed exchange rate regime, became major sellers. By 1999 the price was pushed so low it became impossible to develop new gold mines profitably. Predictably, the market started to correct this mispricing. Under the Washington agreement, the European central banks agreed to co-ordinate their sales and gold has been on an upward trend ever since.


Over the past year a renewed interest in gold as a store of value and as a hedge against financial instability has changed the character of the gold market. No longer driven by the demand for jewellery the gold price is being determined by speculators and investors who are increasingly worried about the dollar. The similarities to the early 1970’s are uncanny – poorly conducted monetary policy, crisis in the Middle East, an American president who does not command confidence outside the United States and the emergence of a new economic power in Asia.


Confidence in the dollar is being eroded by the United States’ huge current account deficit. The US has had an adverse balance of payments for the past 22 years, which up to now it has been able to finance it by attracting investment funds from the rest of the world. This has become difficult both because the deficit is now so large and the focus of private sector investment is increasingly on Asia.

snip>

Where is this going to end? The simple answer is that no one knows. The scale of the imbalance between the US and the rest of the world is huge and the longer intervention prevents necessary adjustments, the greater the dislocation will be when the inevitable correction occurs.


In the face of these uncertainties, some people are again buying gold as a store of value. They do not know what is going to happen but sense great dangers ahead. Some remember that it took more than a decade to correct the policy mistakes of the 1960s. The rising price of gold reflects increasing concerns about the future of the existing economic order.

more...

[UpInArms]

39. oil inventories? Who to believe?

http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=22031274&brk=1

excerpt:

Also on Nymex, oil prices turned lower late morning as investors juggled with conflicting industry data on crude stocks.

The U.S. Energy Department reported a rise in crude stocks for the week ended July 2 but the American Petroleum Institute said inventories for the same week fell by 1.6 million barrels to total 305.1 million. The benchmark August contract was last down 13 cents at $38.95.

Huh?

[Robbien]

40. Newsday came out with a scandal scorecard

made up of a "staggering lineup of failed companies, jailed executives, disgraced regulators and unbalanced accountants and auditors."

A very good long list of the culprits and a summary of their misdeeds. The only ones I do not see on the list are the oil companies for the fudging of their reserves.

Just thought this may be of interest to the marketeers on this grand day of Ken Lay and the wonderful handcuffs.

http://www.newsday.com/news/nationworld/nation/ny-scandal-scorecard,0,737500.story?coll=ny-nationalnews-headlines

[UpInArms]

43. great article Robbien!

thanks for posting it here :D

especially enjoyed the Wall Street Sweep line-up

ARTHUR ANDERSEN
BEAR STEARNS
CITIGROUP INC
CREDIT SUISSE FIRST BOSTON
DEUTSCHE BANK
GOLDMAN SACHS
J.P. MORGAN CHASE
LEHMAN BROTHERS INC
MERRILL LYNCH
MORGAN STANLEY
UBS PAINE WEBBER

with brokerages like these, who can one trust?

and then the regulators!

SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE
PUBLIC COMPANY ACCOUNTING OVERSIGHT BOARD

not to mention the Mutual Fund swindlers! Oh, well, okay, I'll "mention" them:

PUTNAM INVESTMENTS

[54anickel]

44. Heh-heh. Scandals? Why that's just business as usual for Shrubco!

Quite a long and impressive list so far. Possibly just the tip of the iceberg?

[54anickel]

48. Might soon be time to add Dick to the list

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x672572

[UpInArms]

41. Market Numbers and blather at 12:00 EST

Dow 10,251.72 +11.43 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,960.16 -5.92 (-0.30%)
S&P 500 1,117.81 -0.52 (-0.05%)
10-Yr Bond 4.457% -0.015

11:30AM: Homeland Security Secretary Ridge has stated that an Al Qaeda plans an attack before the election, but the market impact has been limited...data out at 10:30 ET showed some buildup in oil inventories, and alleviated the worst fears of traders...as a result, oil prices have fallen back to near unchanged, and that has given stocks a boost...the much overwatched SOX semiconductor index (SOX 446.90 +2.84) has trended up over the past hour, and also given the broader market a boost...the drug sector is providing support to the S&P index today...NYSE Adv/Dec 1253/1723, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1027/1782

10:55AM: The indices are now right where futures traded ahead of the open...it has been a bit choppy with bouts of selling and attempts to get back to unchanged, but nothing dramatic so far...there are no earnings reports after the close today, but there is the risk of some more warnings...there are even a few software companies that have yet to warn that are on the radar screen of traders...NYSE Adv/Dec 1028/1857, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 879/1842

Now quit "overwatching" the SOX dammit!

[54anickel]

46. Guess even the markets have had it with the cries of Wolf.

[54anickel]

47. Back to the Garden (Bill Gross-PIMCO)

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/IO/2004/IO_07_04.htm

snip>

Well, I being you and you being me, I guess we created quite a stir with our interview printed in the Financial Times a few weeks ago. Like the doomsayers we are, we stated that the global economy was more imbalanced than at anytime in the last 25-30 years (the early 70s and the fall of Bretton Woods, the rise of OPEC, and the slicing of the U.S. stock market in half being the supercedent). That thought was a direct offshoot from our May Secular Forum and the “Circus Game”/wire walking theme in last month’s Investment Outlook. Still a little further elaboration might be in order as we try to get ourselves back to the Garden of investing, searching for oneness, and the Holy Grail of the perfect portfolio.

snip>

The debate I helped foster over a balanced vs. imbalanced global economy revolves around the fundamental proposition that bad things can happen in a levered economy. Think of two garages – one with two cars and an immaculately swept floor and the other filled with boxes, newspapers, paint cans and numerous oily rags. Which one do you think has the better chance of going up in flames if a match or a faulty electrical wire creates Fahrenheit 451? That is an apt metaphor in economic terms when comparing a healthy non-debt ladened economy to one thriving on the creation of paper and artificially low interest rates. To be realistic, the possibility of matches and faulty wiring is ever-present and in retrospect, historically obvious. Geopolitical events such as the rise of OPEC in the 1970s, the Vietnam War, and 9/11 have always served as inflationary and in some cases recessionary sparks in an economic context. And fiscal and monetary policy mistakes surrounding these and other independent cyclical trends have accentuated the damage. No Fed Chairman, or President intent upon reelection has ever been immune to minor and in some cases grievous errors of judgment. Rates too high or too low for too long for instance; deficits or fiscal surpluses at exactly the wrong time in the business cycle for another. But a geopolitical or policy match can be thrown onto a spotless garage floor with little chance of a major calamity. With debt laden oily rags strewn throughout, however, the probabilities change. The chart depicted below and as shown in previous Investment Outlooks, therefore, is our major sin and largest stumbling block in any attempt to get back to the Garden of economic prosperity and attractive investment returns.

The commonsensical explanation as to why, revolves around the observation that debt as opposed to equity requires an obligation to pay – principal at maturity, interest periodically – and when there’s too much of it the burden can be crushing if yields rise for geopolitical, policy mistake, or other imaginable reasons – one as simple as higher inflation for instance. In addition, problems arise when the maturity or distribution of the debt becomes imbalanced. Too much short-term as opposed to funded long-term debt has caused many a personal, corporate, and in some cases sovereign bankruptcy. And debt in the hands of benevolent instead of self-interested creditors can be crucial. Americans used to placate themselves with the adage that “we owe it to ourselves” when confronted with mounting public deficits. Such was the case in the 30s, the burden of which was rather anemically molted away by subsequent inflation in the midst of interest rate ceilings imposed during WWII and its aftermath. But when over 50% of outstanding Federal debt is held by foreign creditors, then the rules of the game can change. Global current account imbalances reflected in our ongoing 5% of GDP trade deficit speak to dollar depreciation as a legitimate response to placate foreign creditors in need of a higher currency adjusted return on their “investments.” And if that dollar depreciation is significant, swift – or both – then economic and financial repercussions can follow a similar path.



The consequences of higher interest rates mentioned above can be destabilizing as well. It’s sobering to contemplate that not only has our current cyclical prosperity been due to the “productivity” of lower interest rates in a finance-based, debt-laden economy, but that the reversal of yields must be more than delicately manipulated in order to prevent reciprocal damage and global economic instability. I use the term global in this context more than figuratively. The reality is that almost all the world’s significant central banks save the ECB have begun or are in the process of monetary policy reversal and many do so within an environment fraught with substantial debt and therefore risk. England’s Monetary Policy Committee is already on the march upward in an effect to cool speculative housing appreciation. With home prices ultra-sensitive to short-term rates, however, they could go too high or stay too low, with their domestic economy swaying in the balance. Japan is contemplating an exit from their ZRP or Zero Interest Rate Policy. Talk about a foggy horizon! With so much government debt held by so many domestics banks and insurance companies, their central bank could technically bankrupt their own financial sector by too precipitous a move which would sink JGB prices and asset valuations at these institutions. Japan’s new friendly neighbor to the west – China – has a pickle with their own short-term rates and eventual revaluation of the RMB vs. the dollar. China’s banks themselves have an excess of low quality loans supported by a thin thread of mercurial equity. And then there’s the Fed. Wednesday’s interest rate hike is just the beginning of a journey as to who knows where or when. Not only our housing market, but the financed-based profits (40% of all profits as shown below) of American corporations are at risk. This in turn speaks to the stock market, P/E ratios, and wealth/paper-based prosperity, that depend on the continued low cost of excessive debt taken on in recent years.

Because of these realities based on historically high levels of debt issued during a period of superficially low interest rates, the global economy is indeed in my view, more vulnerable than it has been for the past 25-30 years. The economic and investment consequences appear to be as follows: real short-term rates kept too low will create asset bubbles and accelerating inflation. Real yields raised too high will pop existing asset bubbles and lead to economic recession. The “Goldilocks” yield is the only one that speaks to relative stability, and the margin for error is much narrower than in prior decades........

more...

[54anickel]

49. COMEX gold, silver surge, funds pile in on dollar woes

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?font=Reuters&pv_noticia=MTFH70114_2004-07-08_14-50-31_R2W022594

NEW YORK, July 8 (Reuters) - COMEX gold surged to a 12-week high Thursday morning as commodity funds continued to buy amid worries about the dollar and recent data suggesting U.S. economic growth may be coming off the boil.

snip>

"Its the funds that are back in here," said a chief dealer at a bullion trading firm. "As long as this dollar stays surprisingly weak, I think this is going to continue to be bid."

snip>

But Thursdays rally seemed to be self-perpetuating as speculators vied not to miss the move. Confidence in gold seemed to be revived by last weeks weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs figures which caught the market off guard two days after the Federal Reserve finally responded to the economic recovery by raising interest rates for the first time in four years, but only by a quarter of a percentage point.

"I dont know whats sparking it," said a floor broker. "Remember, just a couple of days ago gold traded down to $389."

He added, "Some people think the numbers are so soft that you are not going to be talking about a 50-basis point increase in interest rates soon. So that kind of induced people to start buying metals again."

more...

[UpInArms]

50. More Layoffs at Pawtucket Mutual in R.I.

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/east/2004/07/08/43839.htm

Following the decision to cancel all of its remaining policies by next month, the Pawtucket Mutual Insurance Co. announced it would layoff 36 employees this week due to the reduced workload.

The 155-year-old company is now employing only 33 of the 173 workers who were on its payroll last May when it was ordered into rehabilitation by the court. The company was placed in rehabilitation plan after its surplus dipped dangerously low.

The insurance company is being run under the oversight of Marilyn Shannon McConagh as rehabiliatator. McConaghy, director of the state's Department of Business Regulation, said PMIC and its wholly- owned stock subsidiary, Narragansett Bay Insurance Co., are proceeding with plans to sell the companies or successfully runoff all claim liabilities if there is no sale.

...more...

[54anickel]

51. Supply of graduates exceeds China's demand

http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/business/9102097.htm?ERIGHTS=7982419722414181363philly::[e-mail]&KRD_RM=1ilkiolqqjomhhhhhhhhioihjk|Chad|N

snip>

In coming weeks, 2.8 million Chinese will graduate from college, a 32 percent increase from last year. But even as rapidly as China's economy is growing, the job market cannot keep up with that kind of increase. So this year's graduates are bracing for less pay and record unemployment.

As many as 800,000 will still be jobless in September, the government predicts. Those who do find jobs will accept salaries 25 percent to 30 percent lower than last year, according to Taihe Consulting, a human-resources research firm.

These are historic changes in a country where the government used to assign all college graduates to jobs, virtually guaranteeing them a lifetime of stability. Today, as China moves from a planned economy to a market-based one, there is no more automatic placement. Competition for jobs is fierce.

Employers say there are jobs available, but not necessarily white-collar jobs in the government, finance or high tech - the sort of positions that college graduates are accustomed to accepting. Some employers say students who are rejected for their first-choice jobs turn up their noses at lesser positions, even those requiring college degrees.

"Their expectations don't match the real situation," said Gayle Gao, human-resources director for China Asset Management Co., a mutual-fund firm.

more...

[54anickel]

52. Inflation Forces May Be Deflating

A quicker-than-expected slowing in price pressures is looking more likely and will change the dynamic between the Fed and the markets

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/jul2004/nf2004078_6094_db035.htm

snip>

However, early indicators are suggesting a lull in those reports for June (each is scheduled for release the week of July 12). And we at Action Economics expect this weakness to extend through July as well. The reports will provide a welcome relief from inflation worries for the bond markets -- and present new challenges for the Federal Reserve.

With this new round of statistics, the markets may indeed begin to question whether even "measured" quarter-point rate hikes at the four remaining Federal Reserve policymaking meetings this year are necessary.

THE NEXT MOVE. It's our assumption that the Fed will want to adhere to a steady tightening trajectory now that it has commenced the rate-raising cycle and won't likely pause until the Fed funds rate gets to a level that some in the markets will plausibly see as "neutral." But the ball will now be firmly in Chairman Greenspan's court, as he'll be able to credibly argue for either a lessened or heightened pace of tightening, if he so chooses.

It's an interesting dilemma for the central bank given our expectation of impressive weakness in the U.S. inflation reports for both June and July. First on tap will be the U.S. trade price indexes for June, to be released on July 14, which should reveal a flat figure for export prices and a 0.3% drop for import prices. The July data for trade prices should be equally soft. On July 15, comes the June PPI report, which should reveal a flat overall figure and a modest 0.2% "core" price gain, which excludes food and energy prices. Immediate weakness should be seen in the energy price component, though we expect more softness here in July as well.

more...

[54anickel]

54. Treasurys turn higher on reports of new security threat

http://www.investors.com/breakingnews.asp?journalid=22032234&brk=1

CHICAGO (CBS.MW) -- Treasurys turned modestly higher Thursday as reports of new U.S.-targeted terrorism threats helped highlight the bond market's low-risk profile.

Department of Homeland Security chief Tom Ridge said in a late-morning press conference that intelligence reports indicate that al-Qaida plans a "large-scale" attack with hopes of disrupting U.S. elections this fall. Ridge added that the color-coded terror-threat indicator would not be changed, currently at yellow or an "elevated" level of alert.

The relative soundness of U.S.-government securities tends to draw investor demand when global security appears compromised. However, U.S. stocks, a comparatively riskier investment, rebounded from an early pullback. See Market Snapshot.

more...

[UpInArms]

56. Market Numbers and blather at 1:08 EST

Dow 10,236.39 -3.90 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,954.83 -11.25 (-0.57%)
S&P 500 1,115.63 -2.70 (-0.24%)
10-Yr Bond 4.447% -0.025

1:00PM: Little change through the New York lunch hour, as the indices trade in mixed fashion with the Dow and S&P holding relatively close to the unchanged mark... All in all, the performance thus far has been arguably somewhat surprising in a positive way when taking into account the bearish bias seen in the futures market before the start of trading... An outperforming semiconductor equipment group is helping to stem the losses seen in the software and Internet groups and, in turn, is helping to keep the broader market's losses in check...

The aforementioned outperformance is owed in part to Japan's Tokyo Electron Ltd. - the world's second largest chip equipment maker - saying its orders surged 124% in the April-June period from a year ago...SOX +1.1%, NYSE Adv/Dec 1350/ 1765, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1058/1862

12:30PM: Volume remains light today, on track for another day near 1.3 billion shares on the NYSE...general investment interest remains light, with the focus still on technology stocks, the favorites of traders...on the NYSE today, the top five most active stocks are technology stocks: Nortel, Lucent, Motorola, EMC, and Texas Instruments...NYSE Adv/Dec 1374/ 1714, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1090/1812

[54anickel]

57. 1:09 update - back in the red

Dow 10,236.45 -9.07 (-0.04%)
Nasdaq 1,955.23 -11.71 (-0.55%)
S&P 500 1,116.00 -2.61 (-0.21%)
10-yr Bond 4.451% -0.021
30-yr Bond 5.204% -0.018

NYSE Volume 737,294,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,015,630,000

1:00PM: Little change through the New York lunch hour, as the indices trade in mixed fashion with the Dow and S&P holding relatively close to the unchanged mark... The performance thus far has been somewhat surprising in a positive way when taking into account the bearish bias seen in the futures market before the start of trading... An outperforming semiconductor equipment group is helping to stem the losses seen in the software and Internet groups and, in turn, is helping to keep the broader market's losses in check...
The aforementioned outperformance is owed in part to Japan's Tokyo Electron Ltd. - the world's second largest chip equipment maker - saying its orders surged 124% in the April-June period from a year ago...SOX +1.1%, NYSE Adv/Dec 1350/1765, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1058/1862

12:30PM: Volume remains light today, on track for another day near 1.3 billion shares on the NYSE...general investment interest remains light, with the focus still on technology stocks, the favorites of traders...on the NYSE today, the top five most active stocks are technology stocks: Nortel, Lucent, Motorola, EMC, and Texas Instruments...NYSE Adv/Dec 1374/1714, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1090/1812

[UpInArms]

58. 54anickel, do you remember

talking about how companies had boned up on tech before y2k?

well, here's some validation for you :D

http://www.computerworld.com/careertopics/careers/labor/story/0,10801,94382,00.html

Challenger: Job cuts at computer firms on the upswing

excerpt:

"After a massive upgrade of computer equipment and software in preparation for the Y2k crisis, companies were able to go for an extended period without major system enhancements. Now that the economy is gaining strength, companies are beginning to invest in new technology, which is helping firms in the computer, electronics and telecom industries," said John A. Challenger, CEO of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

[54anickel]

61. Thanks UIA. Validation is always a good thing - I'm not always

pullin' stuff outta my ass! :evilgrin:

Ahhh, I see they even mention the "growing pains". Part of that shift that's not mentioned in the article is the fact that the pay scales have dropped quite a bit as well - nearly 1/2 for some positions. So many were laid off that there's a glut of labor. There's also been quite a change in the required skill sets, some like security pay premiums and the networking telecom areas are the ones seeing cuts.

However, technology companies, like companies in other sectors, will likely experience growing pains as they figure out where demand will be highest and make staffing adjustments where necessary, he said.

"That may be what we saw in the computer job cuts spike between April and June," Challenger said.

[54anickel]

59. Don’t stop the stimulus

http://www.prudentbear.com/randomwalk.asp

snip>

The other fiscal lever that responsible politicians on the look out for our best interest can pull is the spending lever. Politicians especially enjoy pulling this lever, and as you can see from the chart below, our representatives have had an especially good time lately. The chart shows the year-over-year change in government outlays, including projections that take us through 2007. What we can conclude from chart is: Holy Cow, no wonder everyone feels stimulated. There have been massive increases in government spending of late, and while the estimates for spending down the road aren’t on the miserly side, the increases are expected to slow considerably.

Of course if fiscal policy isn’t cutting the mustard, there’s always monetary policy. This lever is less hassle to pull because there are no pesky constituents to remind you of "priority setting" and to lecture you about mortgaging the future. If you're the Fed, you just haul off and have at it.

Exactly what effect monetary policy has on the economy depends on who you ask. But we don’t have to look at fancy charts of yield curves, real interest rates or a picture of Alan Greenspan getting his knighthood to know that monetary policy has been doing a lot of something. All we have to do is look at the chart below of Great Post Bubble Refi Bubble. The chart shows the Mortgage Bankers Association's index of mortgage refinancing applications. Once upon a time, if you wanted to look at a picture of a mortgage refi boom you could look at the 1998 period and say, “Yep, that was a refi boom all right.” But todays' recent experience makes the '98 boom look like a warm up.

So now we’ve concluded that fiscal and monetary policy already have been stimulative. In fact, they have been so stimulative it’s hard to imagine taxes getting cut any more, the government spending any faster, or Alan Greenspan’s Fed getting any looser. As a Wall Street analyst might say between appearances on CNBC, fiscal and monetary policy are running up against tough comparisons.


In fact, the Tax Foundation puts the Bush tax cuts right up there with the big boys, especially when you combine the three. Here’s what they say:
Contrasting the size of the tax cuts with national income shows that the Kennedy tax cut, representing 1.9 percent of income, was the single largest first-year tax-cut of the post-WW II era. The Reagan tax cuts represented 1.4 percent of income while none of the Bush tax cut even breaks 1 percent of income. The Kennedy tax cuts would only have been surpassed in size by combining all three Bush tax cuts into a single package.

more...

[UpInArms]

60. blaming the "consumers" for bad sales

Retailers fault consumers, weather for sales

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?page=2&guid={2916BD0A-9B7E-4FB9-94B7-AE6FA3850469}&siteid=mktw

excerpt from page 2:

But there were more disappointments than upside surprises, and at least two retailers called the consumer on the carpet.

For TJX Cos. (TJX: news, chart, profile), a 2- percent consolidated increase in same-store sales for the TJ Maxx, Marshall's, HomeGoods, A.J. Wright and Bob's units were below forecasts of 3.9 percent, noted Chief Executive Edmond English. This, he said, "was largely due to the sluggish consumer environment that prevailed throughout the month."

...more...

[54anickel]

62. Yeah, I'm feeling sort of bad about not carrying my share of the load

lately, maybe if I got off my lazy ass and got a job. Sheesh!!!! :eyes:

[Maeve]

63. Nothiing so drastic...

Just take out another loan and get shopping! Don't you know that "low interest rates"=free money?

[54anickel]

65. SNARF!

They have "lowered the bar" to qualify for loans, haven't they, shit I read you don't even need to have a job anymore.:evilgrin:

[54anickel]

64. Buffett Rips Congress on Options

http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/040707/1089236520_1.html

Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.a - News)(NYSE: BRK.b - News) chairman Warren Buffett sent a blistering fusillade across the bow of the U.S. House of Representatives in a Washington Post (NYSE: WPO - News) editorial yesterday. He noted that the worst assault on math in American history was a 19th Century Indiana legislative initiative to round pi up to 3.2. Buffett labeled a current bill in the House that would legislate how companies could treat stock options as having the potential to "cause the mathematical lunacy record to move east from Indiana."

Sing it, Warren.

Many companies, particularly in the high-tech industry, have railed against a current Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) proposal to account for employee stock options as expenses because it would increase the reported cost of these options and make their financial results appear worse. FASB isn't in the business of outcome-based decisions, but Congress sure as heck is. So the House, perhaps noting after the accounting scandals of the past decade and in the face of disgust over exploding executive compensation, recognizes that some further tightening of the rules is perhaps inevitable.

As Buffett notes, though, what the House bill has in mind is simply bizarre. It accepts the fact that options are compensation and, therefore, should be expensed, but then it comes up with the gimmick that companies must only expense for the five highest-paid executive officers at each company. Further, the pricing mechanism that the House bill proposes to be used is one that assumes that the price of the underlying stock never fluctuates.

Great. Show me the company stock that never fluctuates. Everything fluctuates. Buffett's verdict: "A for imagination... flat-out F for logic."

more...

[54anickel]

66. U.S. stocks slip lower as blue chip gains peter out

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040708/c583d63f5d5d7b74098c86bfee996ac2_1.html

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks lost ground in afternoon trading Thursday as a brief rally in blue chip shares petered out while weakness in Yahoo and Siebel Systems kept the technology sector under pressure.

Overshadowing the market, weak June same-store sales from a number of retailers raised concern about a slowdown in consumer spending.

snip>

"The Yahoo numbers really set the tone for the tech market," said Mark Bryant, senior vice-president at Brean Murray. "Some of the pre-announcements we've heard, especially in the business software realm, certainly fueled some fears that business spending is starting to slow down in technology, which has spooked the market quite significantly."

Bryant said the disappointment over the June same-store sales stoked further concern that consumers are spending less, in sync with perceptions of a general economic slowdown.

There was, however, some good news for investors on the economic front.

The number of people submitting initial filings for state unemployment benefits fell sharply in the latest week to stand at the lowest level in nearly four years, the Labor Department said.

Moreover, the market shrugged off a warning by Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge that al-Qaida is looking to take action aimed at disrupting the U.S. presidential election.

"The market didn't even blink," .....more...

[54anickel]

67. 2:05 numbers - Oh my!

Dow 10,208.87 -31.42 (-0.31%)
Nasdaq 1,946.25 -19.83 (-1.01%)
S&P 500 1,113.19 -5.14 (-0.46%)
10-yr Bond 4.476% +0.004
30-yr Bond 5.225% +0.003

NYSE Volume 878,772,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,189,780,000

1:30PM: Indices have been drifting lower since hitting their best intra-day levels around 11:35 ET... The software, apparel, casino, and airline groups have been some of the more influential weights on the broader market, which has found it difficult to make much headway in the face of concerns about earnings prospects and the potential for terrorist activity this summer... The latter hit home today with a threat warning from Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge that, in turn, helped fuel some safe-haven buying interest in the Treasury market...NYSE Adv/Dec 1350/1808, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1002/1947

[UpInArms]

68. Big Slide! Wheeeeeee!

at 2:11 EST

Dow 10,189.93 -50.36 (-0.49%)
Nasdaq 1,942.05 -24.03 (-1.22%)
S&P 500 1,111.33 -7.00 (-0.63%)
10-Yr Bond 4.478% +0.006

[54anickel]

69. Come on now, surely someone must recognize that these are

absolute bargains again today. It's almost a 2 for 1 sale at this point. :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

70. U.S. stocks extend losses as oil spikes on terror fears

http://biz.yahoo.com/cbsm-top/040708/2fe40ffd11e0351fa7c6224085bb0bc5_1.html

Thursday July 8, 2:28 pm ET

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- U.S. stocks extended losses in afternoon trading as crude prices climbed back over $40 a barrel for the first time since early June on concern over a possible terrorist attack in the U.S. :eyes:

Earlier, Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge said the Al-Qaida terrorist network may attack the U.S. before the November presidential election.

The rise in oil comes as investors mull disappointing earnings from Yahoo and a lower revenue outlook from Siebel Systems as well as weak June same-store sales from a number of retailers.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI - News) was last down 59 points, or 0.6 percent, at 10,181, after falling as low as 10,179. The benchmark index briefly edged into positive territory, peaking at 10,263.73 late morning. Twenty-one out of the Dow's 30 stocks were moving lower.

[54anickel]

71. White House downplays ties to Lay (Bwahahahaha)

http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/ssistory.mpl/business/2669071

WASHINGTON -- The White House sought today to minimize President Bush's ties with indicted former Enron chief Kenneth Lay, saying it has been a long time since they talked and suggesting it was only a passing friendship.

When Bush was governor of Texas, he called Lay "Kenny Boy" and Enron was a big financial backer. Bush has received more than $550,000 in donations from Enron, its employees and their relatives during his political career -- the most from any source.

Lay was accused in an 11-count indictment of being involved in a wide-ranging scheme to deceive the public, company shareholders and government regulators about the energy company that he founded and led to industry prominence before its collapse in 2001.

"Cracking down on corporate wrongdoing is a top priority for this president," White House press secretary Scott McClellan said when asked about Lay's indictment today. "The administration is taking strong and aggressive actions to pursue corporate wrongdoers and to strengthen corporate accountability. I don't think I'm going to get into discussing specifically a criminal indictment."

more...

[trogdor]

93. Bush's response to questions about Lay:

Hottest topic I've submitted at GD in over a year. Somebody should nominate it for the homepage.

[54anickel]

105. Ha! Just posted the link down in #90 - It is a great post! Thanks Why!

[54anickel]

72. By the Seat of His Pants

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A32518-2004Jul6.html

snip>

Look back. He arrived in 1987 after Paul Volcker had drubbed double-digit inflation. Under Greenspan, the Fed has faced many problems: the stock market crash of 1987; weak banks in the early 1990s; the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis; the stock market and tech bubbles of the late 1990s; and the aftermath of Sept. 11. But there have been no calamities. The two recessions (1990-91 and 2001) were mild. Inflation has declined -- from 4.4 percent in 1987 to 1.9 percent in 2003 -- and incomes have risen. From 1987 to 2003, gross domestic product increased by 61 percent and the number of jobs by 25 million.

He's made it look easy. Compared with earlier threats, the present challenge seems tame. For three years, the Fed has aggressively combated a weak economy with cheap credit. The Fed funds rate has been below 2 percent since late 2001, and at 1 percent since June 2003. Now the recovery seems firm. In the past year gross domestic product growth has averaged 4.8 percent. Job growth has resumed. On the other hand, unemployment remains high enough to mute pressures for big wage gains, which -- being the largest cost for business -- might spill over into higher prices. The economy seems strong enough to tolerate higher interest rates and weak enough to permit rates to rise slowly.

But appearances may deceive. We now have a new book from a former Fed governor that provides a glimpse of Greenspan's Fed. It's much messier than advertised. Nominated by President Bill Clinton, Laurence Meyer served from 1996 to 2002. Before that, he taught economics at Washington University in St. Louis and ran a widely known forecasting firm. His book "A Term at the Fed'' isn't a kiss-and-tell tale; it focuses on economic issues. Still, it offers fascinating insights.

By Meyer's account, Greenspan and the Fed often fly by the seats of their pants. Despite a staff of 220 economists armed with computer models, the Fed is regularly surprised. In 1996 and early 1997, unemployment (then close to 5 percent) was declining. By the models, tight labor markets should have increased inflation. But inflation was dropping. "We had never seen anything like this before," Meyer writes. There were other surprises. The Fed didn't foresee the Asian financial crisis, the extent of the stock market bubble or the 2001 recession. Meyer doesn't criticize the Fed staff, which he thought excellent. But there were limits to what could be predicted.

more...

[54anickel]

74. While on the topic of Greenspin....

Here's one I came across a couple of weeks ago. An interview with Janet Yellen about Al from back in 2002.

http://www.uncommonknowledge.org/01-02/631.html

snip>

Peter Robinson: All right. Won the Nobel Prize in 1976 for his efforts. You could call him the father of monetarism, which is this school of economic thought that informs the work of central banks around the world. How is it that Milton Friedman could hold such a view, abolish the Federal Reserve and be so mistaken? Janet?

Janet Yellen: Well I think Milton Friedman had very real concerns that the Federal Reserve in conducting monetary policy, has the potential to make the economy less stable rather than more stable. But, ideally I think the Federal Reserve, if it conducts monetary policy right, can improve the way the economy functions. And I think it's interesting that recently Milton Friedman has been quoted as having said very favorable things about the Feds, particularly the Greenspan Fed's performance.

Peter Robinson: Janet, we did a show about a month ago with Milton Friedman in which he said very nice things about the Fed and Alan Greenspan and said but, of course, I still think it should be abolished. Mike?

Michael Boskin: I think if you go back to when Milton first held this view, the Federal Reserve was not a star performer in the policy apparatus. We had atrocious monetary policy at various times in our history in the 1930's. In the 1970's, we had horrible inflation. In the 1930's, the Fed allowed the depression to get worse and persist longer than it otherwise would have.

Peter Robinson: Of course, I want to talk about the economy and economics, that's what a show on the Fed should be about but I want also to get at this question of political philosophy as well. So throughout American history, you have a large number of Americans including some of the founders who were very wary of the notion of a powerful central bank, let alone an independent, powerful central bank. The Fed isn't even created until 1913 because of this school of thought, this resistance to a central bank. It's not until the Fed reaches a 1951 agreement with President Truman, that it achieves real independence in setting interest rates. Now listen to a brief history of recent Fed actions. Under Fed Chairman, Arthur Burns, the Fed expands the money supply just about in time to help Richard Nixon get elected. You could argue why Arthur Burns did that, but Milton Friedman himself believed it was a politically motivated action. And he and Arthur Burns who were close friends beforehand, didn't speak for years afterwards. Paul Volker--the Fed raises interest rates sharply helping to contribute to a deep recession in the early 1980's, ten percent unemployment. Journalist William Greider says that that was, in effect, in coup. If the American people had known that was going to take place and been able to comment on it through the political system, they'd have preferred a little more inflation, not a wrenching economic experience like that. Last point: Chairman Greenspan--Fed raises rates in 1989, contributing, many argue, to the recession of 1990 and 1991 and contributing to the defeat of George Bush. So in recent history, you've got three instances in which this powerful central bank either intervenes directly in politics (Arthur Burns) or takes actions so dramatic in the economy that they have a direct bearing on American politics. So how is it that you justify the existence of such a powerful, un-elected body? Janet?

Janet Yellen: Well the Federal Reserve is responsible to Congress. It operates under a system of laws and accountability. And it does have the job of prescribing often very tough and unpopular medicine. Paul Volker's interest rate increases to bring inflation down are a good example of that. And these are actions I think that are in the best interest of the economy. And they've been assigned to an independent Federal Reserve because I think Congress wisely perceived that the political process that Congress itself or elected officials would find it very difficult to take unpopular actions.

more...

[UpInArms]

73. Oil Prices Rise After U.S. Terror Warning

http://www.forbes.com/business/manufacturing/feeds/ap/2004/07/08/ap1448343.html

Crude oil prices in New York surged above $40 a barrel Thursday for the first time in more than a month after the U.S. Department of Homeland Security signaled terrorists were scheming to disrupt U.S. elections.

The rally reinforced the market's pattern of buying whenever terrorism worries surface, despite government data showing across-the-board builds in petroleum inventories last week.

"Credible reporting now indicates that al-Qaida is moving forward with its plans to carry out a large-scale attack in the United States in an effort to disrupt our democratic process," said Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge at a press conference Thursday afternoon.

August crude futures jumped more than a dollar, or 2.7 percent, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The rally was fed by a technical rise earlier as prices neared the $40 benchmark, as well as a slimmer-than- expected rise in U.S. commercial oil inventories and the highest gasoline demand in four weeks.

...more...

these dimbulbs just piss me off. the puce color remains in effect, no fuschia or magenta.

[wetbandit2003]

75. The Greedy Gas Companies

Will take this as a cue to start jacking
up the price on gasoline again, just like they did
every time a know-it-all anylist like "Chicken Little" predicted higher prices. You just watch.

[Demeter]

122. Gallon of Gas up 18 cents overnight in Ann Arbor

[54anickel]

76. But hey, it's great for profits - again. Sometimes I think that Shrub and

his oil buddies are just out to "make hay while the sun shines". Do whatever it takes to land contracts and boost profits while the idiot son of an asshole is still in Al's house.

The CT in me says to take this as yet another sign that they are realizing their days might well be numbered. They've got to get in as much raping and pillaging as they can before November.

[UpInArms]

77. Market Numbers and blather at 3:22 EST

Dow 10,216.99 -23.30 (-0.23%)
Nasdaq 1,947.24 -18.84 (-0.96%)
S&P 500 1,114.00 -4.33 (-0.39%)
10-Yr Bond 4.470% -0.002

2:55PM: A bit of a reprieve from the afternoon selling pressure, but nothing of note as the indices are still comfortably below the unchanged line... Not a whole lot of leadership at the moment as there are just four S&P industry groups - Gold (+1.96%), Food Distributors (+1.43%), Semiconductor Equipment (+1.33%), and Diversified Capital Markets (+1.26%) - showing a gain of more than 1.0%... Meanwhile, there are 43 S&P industry groups down more than 1.0% as underlying earnings concerns are providing an impetus for today's selling activity... NYSE Adv/Dec 1163/2057, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 807/2224

2:25PM: Indices are at their worst levels for the session as buying interest has faded throughout the afternoon trade... That circumstance is reflected in the widening lead of decliners over advancers at both the NYSE and Nasdaq... The latest slippage in the indices has driven the S&P into negative territory for the year (-0.15% YTD) where the Dow and Nasdaq were already residing... Most stock boats are receding with the investment tide at the moment... To wit, the SOX Index, which was up more than 1.0% earlier, is now up just 0.3% for the day... NYSE Adv/Dec 1217/1980, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 771/2241

buying opportunities abounded!

[54anickel]

78. Diversified Capital Markets? What's that? (Pardon my ignorance)

[UpInArms]

82. info on "diversified capital markets"

http://support.compustat.com/support/gicsrebase.html

The GICS Sub-Industry Rebase of May 1, 2003

As a result of receiving 3 years of substantial client feedback about the GICS structure and conducting a very extensive review of the GICS structure, Standard & Poor’s and Morgan Stanley Capital International Inc. (MSCI), created six new Sub-Industries in the Financials Sector that became active May 1, 2003. The new Sub-Industries, which more accurately classify financial services companies within the Banks and Diversified Financial Industry Groups of the Financials Sector, are:

In the Banks Industry Group,

1. Regional Banks
2. Thrifts & Mortgage Finance

In the Diversified Financial Industry Group,

3. Specialized Finance

4. Asset Management & Custody Banks
5. Investment Banking & Brokerage
6. Diversified Capital Markets

After the close of business on April 30, 2003, the Banks Sub-Industry was renamed "Diversified Banks," and
any regional banks and mortgage-related banks previously classified in the Banks Sub-Industry were removed and reclassified to the most appropriate Sub-Industry of the six new Sub-Industries. The Diversified Financial Services Sub-Industry was also renamed as "Other Diversified Financial Services” and many companies, particularly at the U.S. index level, which were not truly diverse, were from this Sub-Industry and also reclassified. As a result of these reclassifications, the Financials Sector is now broken down like this:

Industry Group: Banks

Industry: Commercial Banks

Sub-Industry: Diversified Banks
Sub-Industry: Regional Banks

Industry: Thrifts & Mortgage Finance

Sub-Industry: Thrifts & Mortgage Finance

Industry Group: Diversified Financials

Industry: Diversified Financial Services

Sub-Industry: Other Diversified Financial Services


Sub-Industry: Multi-Sector Holdings
Sub-Industry: Specialized Finance

...more...

lending through agencies not known as "banks" :shrug:

[54anickel]

86. Thanks UIA. I was googling around for it as well and couldn't come

up with anything that actually spelled it out in layman's terms. Sounds like some secret society or something.

"It's diversified, lot's of stuff in there. But if we tell ya what's all in it, we'd have ta kill ya."

[UpInArms]

79. Oil Rises to 5-Week High on Fund Buying After Supply Report

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aa_VS564fbA8&refer=us

July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a five-week high as increased buying by hedge funds eclipsed reports that U.S. oil and petroleum product inventories gained in the week ended Friday as refiners boosted their operating rates.

Crude oil supplies rose 100,000 barrels to 305 million, the Energy Department said. OAO Yukos Oil Co., Russia's biggest oil exporter, has said that output may fall because of a tax dispute. Yukos pumped 1.7 million barrels a day during the first quarter, almost as much as Iraq. Oil shipments from Iraq and Nigeria have been disrupted during the past week.

``The market is discounting the present supply reality in favor of the potential for continued supply disruptions,'' said John Kilduff, senior vice president of energy risk management at Fimat USA Inc. in New York. ``Several major supply sources remain vulnerable due to terrorism or civil unrest, forcing everyone to pay up for what might become a precious commodity.''

Crude oil for August delivery was up $1.22, or 3.1 percent, at $40.30 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices were 33 percent higher than a year earlier and down 5.1 percent from a record $42.45 a barrel on June 2. Futures reached $40.10 a barrel, the highest intraday price since June 3.

In London, the August Brent crude oil futures contract was up $1.14, or 3.1 percent, at $37.75 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.

``It's hard to find a single reason for this rally except to say that the funds are coming back in buying and everyone is piling in,'' said Justin Fohsz, a broker with Starsupply Petroleum Inc. in Englewood, New Jersey.

...more...

[54anickel]

83. Sounds like a pretty safe bet....odds are in their favor....

``The market is discounting the present supply reality in favor of the potential for continued supply disruptions,''

[UpInArms]

80. reason of the hour (for low sales): gas prices

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&refer=us&sid=aq.dYOWHa774

July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers in June rose by the smallest pace in a year as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. said higher gasoline prices crimped spending.

Sales at stores open at least a year rose 2.9 percent from a year earlier, less than expected, said the International Council of Shopping Centers. Sales at Wal-Mart's U.S. stores climbed 2.2 percent, the smallest in more than a year, and dropped at Gap Inc. for the first time in 21 months.

Gasoline prices, which rose by a third from a year earlier, trimmed sales, retailers including Wal-Mart and J.C. Penney Co. said. The higher prices, along with fewer mortgage refinancings, will reduce purchases in the second half of the year, said analyst Daniel Barry at Merrill Lynch.

``If something is going to suffer because of higher gas prices, people will cut their retail spending,'' said Marc Inboden, who helps manage about $400 million at Beese Fulmer & Pincoe Inc. in Canton, Ohio. ``Clothes and other discretionary items take second billing to the gasoline.''

...more...

ya think?

[Maeve]

84. That is NOT what they were saying last week or so

Nope--people were accepting the higher cost, no biggie, no change in behavior...and the prices came back down again, didn't they?...and besides, it was the WEATHER, right? :eyes: Where's that gif? Ah, yes!

[Robbien]

92. Was this article/recording posted previously on America's Black Budget?

about: Investors benefit from understanding the federal budget, credit policies and covert intervention that drive markets -- often overriding fundamental economics. How has the US governmental apparatus become so powerful in the marketplace and what does it mean to the health of our economy? How unstable is the mortgage bubble and where are the opportunities for investors if the bubble bursts?

I kept meaning to check if it been posted here previously. If not it is a great article about how Freddie/Fannie are being manipulated and why there isn't any real funds in the pot. The nice thing is at the end they give some hints on where to look for safety.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0405/S00268.htm

The audio was great and only used the transcription as a reference.

[54anickel]

114. Ewwww, thanks Robbien! I'll have to give this a go over later tonight!

The old RTC and the S&L bailout....brings back such fond memories for me when I worked for that investment firm and the boss came up with that Resolution board game.

[54anickel]

85. I thought it was the weather? Sheesh, do ya think maybe people are

just plum outta dough and their credit cards are maxed?

[TrogL]

81. Loonie watch (CAN)

from http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/graph30.html



2004-06-15 Tuesday, June 15 0.72998 USD
2004-06-16 Wednesday, June 16 0.726111 USD
2004-06-17 Thursday, June 17 0.727167 USD
2004-06-18 Friday, June 18 0.732869 USD
2004-06-21 Monday, June 21 0.733138 USD
2004-06-22 Tuesday, June 22 0.735727 USD
2004-06-23 Wednesday, June 23 0.734538 USD
2004-06-24 Thursday, June 24 0.744602 USD
2004-06-25 Friday, June 25 0.741345 USD
2004-06-28 Monday, June 28 0.744325 USD
2004-06-29 Tuesday, June 29 0.742666 USD
2004-06-30 Wednesday, June 30 0.745879 USD
2004-07-01 Thursday, July 1 0.750469 USD
2004-07-02 Friday, July 2 0.754489 USD
2004-07-06 Tuesday, July 6 0.754091 USD
2004-07-07 Wednesday, July 7 0.757805 USD
2004-07-08 Thursday, July 8 0.759648 USD

average 0.739249
lowest (Jun 16) 0.726111
highest (Jul 8) 0.759648

[54anickel]

88. Can I move to Canada? How's bout they just annex WI? Take the UP along

for the ride. I don't think the uppers would mind.

[UpInArms]

87. Market Numbers and blather at 3:42 EST

Dow 10,196.71 -43.58 (-0.43%)
Nasdaq 1,941.16 -24.92 (-1.27%)
S&P 500 1,111.64 -6.69 (-0.60%)
10-Yr Bond 4.470% -0.002

3:30PM: Market is clawing its way back from session lows that were reached about an hour ago... The red arrows persist next to the major indices, though, as buyers are finding little reason to step up with much conviction... That is especially true among tech investors who have been broadsided this week with a host of warnings from the software industry that have prompted residual concerns that earnings expectations, in general, may be too high...

Tomorrow, General Electric (GE 31.90 -0.12) and Abbott Labs (ABT 40.36 +0.78) - both of which are Briefing.com suggested holdings for conservative investors - highlight the earnings calendar...NYSE Adv/Dec 1223/2026, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 842/2222

looks like it might have a few broken nails

[ozymandius]

89. Hi folks! I'm back for the final minutes.

3:55pm

Dow 10,174.66 -65.63 (-0.64%)
Nasdaq 1,937.23 -28.85 (-1.47%)
S&P 500 1,109.78 -8.55 (-0.76%)
10-Yr Bond 4.470% -0.002

[54anickel]

90. Ya'all catch this thread on Shrub not answering questions about Kenny-boy?

The picture is priceless!!!

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x672405

[ozymandius]

95. That is a glory to behold.

One might have thought the reporter's name were Diogenes.


Walk on, you invertibrate asshole!

[54anickel]

99. Another pic from the link from todays news. Is it al Qaeda or aliens he's

warning about? (Couldn't just post the pic)

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/040708/photos_wl_afp/040708182021_bylqyq9p_photo0

[ozymandius]

101. This pic?

Looks like he's broadcasting from the Hollywood Bowl. That or Starship Earth.

[Maeve]

103. Now I've got that stupid 5 note earworm from Close Encounters

Stuck in my head...get it out! Get it out!

Dah-dah-da duh-dum!
:crazy:

[54anickel]

107. That's the one - thanks Ozy!!!!

[UpInArms]

104. what is that thing behind Ridge?

is it about to attack him?

[54anickel]

110. Not sure, but you've got to give these photographers credit for capturing

the proper essence of the situation and characters in these 2 pictures of the day.

[ozymandius]

91. Eeeyah! How did it get so ugly?

Did someone decide not to play nice? Did Secretaries Snow and Ridge get caught in a compromising posture with the dog?

[Maeve]

94. Hey, there's terror out there, din'tcha hear?

Booga! But I think oil prices may have risen again...

[54anickel]

96. HA! Glad you could make it back Ozy!

[ozymandius]

100. Thanks.

I had to run out for awhile as I try to unload more shop equipment. The lease on my space ends in seven weeks. So time is pressing on the closing of this venture.

When I have to leave early in the day, I often make promises to come back. It is something of a surprise to follow through.

[UpInArms]

98. glad to see you back Ozy!

:hi:

feels a lot like they tried to throw too many things into the pot to take the spotlight off the positive tone of Kerry/Edwards and made a nice mess of it in the markets :evilgrin:

[54anickel]

102. Ewww, excellent point again UIA! Think you're onto something.

[ozymandius]

108. Has "the fixer" become distracted? n/t

[ozymandius]

97. Some settling may occur.

at 4:00pm
Dow 10,171.56 -68.73 (-0.67%)
Nasdaq 1,935.32 -30.76 (-1.56%)
S&P 500 1,109.10 -9.23 (-0.83%)
10-Yr Bond 4.470% -0.002

[ozymandius]

106. These numbers look official.

Dow 10,171.56 -68.73 (-0.67%)
Nasdaq 1,935.32 -30.76 (-1.56%)
S&P 500 1,109.10 -9.23 (-0.83%)
10-Yr Bond 4.470% -0.002

I will look forward to reading how Martin Goldberg wraps up today and this week. If today's WrapUp bears any indication on this market's direction (nowhere), then Goldberg's column will probably hammer this point.

[midwayer]

120. INDU Penetrated the 200DMA

and could not recover does not bode well over the short to medium term

Next Wed is options expiration so my be a little strange through here

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=INDU

My guess is The SPX will be the one to watch when correlating for the reverse as it has not quite hit the 200 DMA right at 1100 and rising as of today but looks a couple days out. Should be reliable.


Just some thoughts

[UpInArms]

109. Funds Put Dollar in Gold, Price Soars

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=5623155

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Gold surged to a three-month high in New York futures trade Thursday, catapulting silver into an even bigger rally, as investors and speculators swapped the dollar for harder assets amid indications that U.S. economic growth is coming off the boil.

Dollar disinvestment pushed the euro to a three-month high and buttressed gold as a safe haven. U.S. warnings about a major terrorist attack was another bullish factor in the day's trade, along with a rise in oil prices.

At the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, August gold reached $409.60 an ounce in late trade to mark its highest price since April 13. It settled up $5.50, nearly 1.4 percent, at $408.20, extending Wednesday's $9.70 rally.

Gold has mostly been moving in the opposite direction to the dollar, correlating closely with the euro, which slipped overnight but rallied back to its highest since mid-March at $1.2406 by mid-morning.

David Rinehimer, head of commodities research at Citigroup Global Markets, cited relief that gold was able to hold above $400 after Wednesday's technical breakout. "The funds are becoming a little more confident as far as the upside potential in the gold," he said. "There is not too much gyration on the dollar side, though I think sentiment toward the dollar turned a little bit more negative."

...more...

[54anickel]

112. Hmmm, wonder how the next Treasury auction will play out? What about

those poor Russian folks that have been buying bucks over rubles? Gotta get that CT out of my head right NOW!!!

[UpInArms]

115. Russian banks are charging 10% premium for withdrawals

to add insult to injury

http://www.forbes.com/business/feeds/ap/2004/07/08/ap1448599.html

Russians Loose Confidence in Banks

A crisis of confidence in Russia's banking market spread to one of the largest banks Thursday as clients rushed to retrieve their savings, only to find that they had to wait in long lines and pay a 10 percent penalty.

Breaking ranks with the government, which has taken pains to deny major problems in the banking sector, President Vladimir Putin's top economic adviser called the situation alarming.

"It's obvious that it is a banking crisis," Andrei Illarionov said, according to the Interfax news agency. "A situation where the expression 'banking crisis' is forbidden is absurd and ludicrous because solving a problem begins with correctly identifying the question."

Alfa Bank's management has insisted that the bank is secure, and the Central Bank has said it saw no problems with Alfa Bank, but that didn't reassure customers - some of whom spent their second day in line on Thursday.

"They promised us a lot, but they are telling us nothing," said Natalia Alexandrovna, 48, a bookkeeper at a nearby company who was among about 60 people standing outside the closed doors of the Bolshaya Polyanka branch. She'd been waiting for three hours.

"Alfa Bank ... will continue to carry out the instructions of its clients in full and without restrictions or delays," the bank's management said in a statement posted on its Web site Wednesday.

The banking sector's recent troubles began in May when the Central Bank revoked the license of medium-sized Sodbiznesbank because it was allegedly laundering money, including payments made in connection with a mafia-style assassination. Sodbiznesbank has denied the charges.

...more...

[54anickel]

119. Now THAT sucks! It's gonna take a long, long time for them to regain

any kind of confidence in the banking industry again.

[UpInArms]

111. Discounters suffer while luxury and fashion do well

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B2916BD0A-9B7E-4FB9-94B7-AE6FA3850469%7D&siteid=google&dist=google

excerpt:

Indeed, a handful of luxury retailers handily beat forecasts for June. Neiman-Marcus (NMG.A: news, chart, profile) (NMG.B: news, chart, profile) produced a 13.5 percent increase, higher than the 9 percent average expectation, and Saks (SKS: news, chart, profile) churned out an 8.5 percent gain, ahead of the 5.7 percent forecast.

<snip>

"Clients continue to respond to Ann Taylor Loft's great fashion and novelty at surprising prices," Chief Executive Patrick Spainhour said in the sales release.

...more...

so I guess that the upper edge weren't as affected by the weather and those lousy "consumers".

Wonder what sector of the population is unaffected by the price of gasoline?

[KoKo]

113. Blame it on Iraq and the Democrats?

Reuters
Choppy quarter for stocks on elections, Iraq-Lipper
Thursday July 8, 2:01 pm ET

NEW YORK, July 8 (Reuters) - Investors can expect a choppy third quarter in the U.S. stock market because of uncertainties over Iraq and the U.S. presidential election, mutual fund research company Lipper Inc. said Thursday.

ADVERTISEMENT
In general, stock investors seem to like news that is favorable to President George W. Bush and respond negatively to news that is favorable to Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, Lipper analyst Don Cassidy said.

Market analysts and the media are impatient, and investors are very edgy, Cassidy said in a conference call to discuss second-quarter performance of mutual funds and the outlook for the second-half of the year.

Lipper said it continues to suggest caution and defensive portfolios positioned in consumer staples and health care, as well as energy and utility sectors. Interest-rate sensitive sectors could be underweighted.

"While a difficult environment for stocks may be expected in the next few months, a rally later in the year seems plausible after the fall elections," said Lipper analyst Michael Porter.

At the end of June, the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 Index (CBOE:^SPX - News) and the technology-laced Nasdaq Composite Index (NasdaqSC:^IXIC - News) were up more than 2 percent for the year, but both have since declined. The S&P 500 is down about 2.2 percent and the Nasdaq about 4.7 percent since June 30.

http://biz.yahoo.com/rf/040708/financial_fund_lipper_1.html

[UpInArms]

116. can you hear the

wretching noises?

In general, stock investors seem to like news that is favorable to President George W. Bush and respond negatively to news that is favorable to Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, Lipper analyst Don Cassidy said.

Nah - these folks are just bailing out of their bad bogus hype stories before some real regulation comes along.

Utter horseshit and garbage from the spin factories.

thanks KoKo :hi:

[54anickel]

117. Sheesh, investor's need to "get over it"! I'm thinking there's gonna

be a lot more "unfavorable" news for Shrub in the months ahead. Investors, always afraid of change. They need to embrace the idea that "change is good".

In general, stock investors seem to like news that is favorable to President George W. Bush and respond negatively to news that is favorable to Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry...

[ozymandius]

121. Well, Geez! Are we going to war with Iran or not???

And Syria, too? </mocking tone>

The stupidity of this analysis amazes me. One might reflect upon recent memory, buoyied by historical perspective, that a Democrat in the White House means good things for the stock markets. It *usually* does not favor bubbles - but then that's good isn't it?

GEEZ! Are some stock analysts in league with Tom Ridge to scare us into voting for Republicans?!?

[KoKo]

124. I know...to all three of you...disgusting isn't it...words cannot describe

BLECH!

[54anickel]

118. Closing blather - just because it points out the Ridge factor - DOH!

Close: The market struggled on Thursday, weighed down by a batch of unimpressive same-store sales results from the retailers, a sense of disappointment that Yahoo! (YHOO 30.08, -2.52, -7.7%) didn't surpass consensus revenue and EPS expectations for Q2 (Jun), continued earnings warnings from the software industry, and a terror threat warning from Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge... The latter was issued around 11:15 ET when the broader market was in the midst of a rebound effort from opening losses...

While the market maintained that bid through the course of Ridge's news conference, it proved to be an intra-day inflection point as the rebound conviction ran out of steam soon thereafter... In fact, the indices hit their intra-day highs around 11:35 ET and then succumbed to an orderly wave of selling pressure that picked up momentum in the final half hour of trading... The indices closed at their worst levels of the session and the S&P joined the Dow and Nasdaq in negative territory for the year... There was little leadership to be found today as concerns about earnings prospects provided the impetus for broad-based selling activity...

Internet services (-7.92%), homebuilding (-5.33%), application software (-4.09%), computer storage (-3.39%), airline (-3.29%), apparel (-3.06%), and casino (-2.64%) were among the worst-performing S&P industry groups; meanwhile, gold (+2.23%), diversified capital markets (+1.26%), food distributors (+1.18%), and diversified commercial services (+1.17%) led the small pack of winners.... The Treasury market drew support from the terror warning, but a stronger than expected initial claims report kept buying interest in check...

Hmmmm, what time did that picture of Shrub hit the page? 3:30?:evilgrin:

[KoKo]

123. Kick for the night...lots of good reading here...for those who arre

concerned.

[JNelson6563]

125. Hey there fellow Marketeers!

Long day on the political front but a good day so worth it.

Anyhow, just HAD to check this thread today, knowing the top post today would have different numbers. Ozy, I knew you'd note it memorably! :toast:

Read the thread, brilliant insights and lots of laughs. I love you guys/gals, you all rock. Thanks for all the superb posts.

Looks like these times we live in get more interesting every day.

Julie

[54anickel]

126. JULIE!!!! We miss you out here sooooo much. Glad to hear you had

another good day on the political front. Keep up the great work out there! :yourock: