Kerry Fails to Get Lift From Edwards' Pick, Zogby Poll Shows

[DaveSZ]

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aAebGFU9pnZk&refer=us


Kerry Fails to Get Lift From Edwards' Pick, Zogby Poll Shows

July 8 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic candidate John Kerry's standing against President George W. Bush didn't improve following his pick of North Carolina Senator John Edwards as his running mate July 6, according to a Zogby International poll.

Forty-eight percent of 1,008 likely voters polled by Zogby from July 6-7 supported Kerry and Edwards and 46 percent back Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney. The two percentage-point margin is within the poll's 3.1 percentage point margin of error and matches the two point spread in a Zogby poll taken June 2-5.

Other polls taken after Kerry's July 6 announcement show the Democrat gaining popularity in a race that is still in a statistical dead heat. A CBS poll found a Kerry-Edwards ticket would draw the support of 49 percent of voters if the election were held now, compared with 44 percent for Bush-Cheney, within the survey's margin of error. In a June 23-27 poll of the same voters, Kerry drew 45 percent support to Bush's 44 percent.

``This is not a big bounce electorate,'' pollster John Zogby said in a statement. ``We are a nation that is split down the middle, polarized and hardened.''

-more

[iconoclastic cat]

1. Isn't July 6th and 7th a bit early for a bounce to show up?

[TheWraith]

14. Very.

They have no patience, and if something won't show up for their news cycle they'll pretend like it doesn't exist.

[iconoclastic cat]

16. Hey, welcome to DU!

If someone hasn't already said it. Enjoy the lively dialogue!

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

18. The age of instant analysis...

The media is great at tracking trends that go back as far as "early last week." For them, that consitutes the Big Picture.

[David Dunham]

2. Edwards is a great campaigner who will help more as the election goes on.

[lancdem]

13. I agree

and the pick really energized the Dems. I think our turnout in November will be phenomenal. Plus, Zogby basically never shows large bounces one way or the other because his methodology is different (likely voters are polled exclusively).

[NewYorkerfromMass]

3. Well even if you believe this, with 48-46 Kerry lead

he didn't need one! :)

[geek tragedy]

4. The convention bounce will be the bigger key

And, a tie for the incumbent now is really horrible news for aWol.

[Nightjock]

5. I don't believe that bull

A huge part of this country does not even know Edwards yet. These organizations are so quick to give instant results it's sickening.
we'll see "the bounce" next week.

[Nevernose]

10. For that matter, they don't know Kerry, either

When a majority of the electorate get what they know from cable news soundbites and 30-second tv commercials, then we, as a nation, are fucked.

[underpants]

6. Check out the demographics

GET OUT THE VOTE!!!!!!

The poll by Utica, New York-based Zogby found voters 18-29 years of age backed Kerry-Edwards over Bush-Cheney by 59 percent to 37 percent; voters 65 and older backed Kerry-Edwards 49 percent to 46 percent and singles backed the Democratic ticket over Bush-Cheney by 62 percent to 26 percent.

The Republican ticket is backed by voters 50 to 64 years old 49 percent to 46 percent for Kerry-Edwards; men back Bush-Cheney over Kerry-Edwards 50 percent to 43 percent and 53 percent of married couples back Bush-Cheney while 42 percent back Kerry- Edwards.

[WI_DEM]

9. what happens to people when they get married?

Why does Bush-Cheney have a 11-point edge with marieds and Kerry-Edwards lead by 36-points among singles?

[underpants]

12. What?....isn't wrasslin' on?

*buuurp*

[glitch]

20. a lot of them get very busy and can't take the time to do the research

like we can. So they rely on TV for their information because they're exhausted and it's easy. IMO, from looking at family members.
Plus I think having familiies makes them more fearful, which is the tune Bush is playing. Resonates.

[DaveSZ]

7. The key is turning out young voters, elderly, and single women:

edit-

You beat me to it.

:)

[2Design]

8. bull....crap........kerry was already high and edwards is a dream

these pollsters are awful

[Mithras61]

11. "Zogby fails to find Dem voters, even after Kerry announces VP pick"

Zogby hasn't found anything that affects the great GWB's numbers, so why does this surprise anyone?

[aquart]

15. I'm not interested in a "bounce."

Passing enthusiasm is worthless. I want an honest election and a supervised count.

Screw "bounce."

[annxburns]

17. Relax ....

... this actually helps us.

BC04 Pollster Matthew Dowd is trying to raise expectations for a 15 point bounce for KE04. He ignores the fact that both Kerry and Edwards are already well known and the dems are united. So you would only expect a 4-5 point swing based on how divided the country is and how well known John Kerry is.

Zogby just lowered the bar on expectations for us (something that Kerry's pollster has been trying to do to no avail given the whorish media).

Now if we get a significant bounce (8-10 %) it will get the proper attention.

[Beetwasher]

19. There is NO WAY IN HELL This Poll Conducted 7/6-7/7

Would contain the bounce...Zogby is being disengenuous if he's implying it should...

[Heidi]

21. Question everything.

I was a journalist for 20 years, and I can tell you I question everything, even polls. Where's the evidence that we're a nation that is split down the middle, polarized and hardened?

[Teaser]

22. 2 out of 3 polls say he did get a bounce.

Go with the trends, not the individual polls.

[progressivebydesign]

23. Is that (BLOOMBERG) News service as in GOP Bloomberg? n/t

[JI7]

24. people need to get to know Edwards first, (Kerry too)

i think it's because people haven't really gotten to know or see Edwards much. usually the attention at first is totally positive as i remember it being with Dick Cheney. but they immediatey went into the trial lawyer, inexperienced crap. i believe when more people see him they will come to our side. i say the same for john kerry also.

remember, Edwards didn't really do tv interviews as joe lieberman did after he was named vp. kerry and edwards went to work right away on the ground. they went to the people,not the big media for interviews. but to the people at rallies and other events. and that's how they won iowa and did so well in the primaries so it's the way it should be. they can do more later on.

[David__77]

25. There won't be any large "bouncing" unless something huge happens.

People are fairly solified in their standpoints at this time and we've seen not a lot of movement all year.

[Maeve]

26. "a nation that is split down the middle" is what Big Media wants

All the better to gin up excitment, drama, ratings...

[comsymp]

27. You raise an important point that needs to be kept in mind

Ratings, ratings, ratings- and in order to generate 'em, this has to be perceived to be a down to the wire nailbiter. Should be interesting, and amusing, to watch the Talking Heads work harder and harder to make it appear close, the closer we get to the election. The BS should be flying fast & furious by the time the debates roll around.

Bet ya lunch that The Watchdogs of Democracy will reach heretofore unimagined lows in their coverage before 11/2.

[Larkspur]

28. I'm no Edwards fan but Kerry is an albatross himself

So it would be hard for Prince Charming, in the 2nd spot, to help pilot the ticket upward.