AP Poll: Bush Gains Slight Lead Over Kerry

[Walt Starr]

AP Poll: Bush Gains Slight Lead Over Kerry

5 minutes ago

By RON FOURNIER, AP Political Writer

WASHINGTON - President Bush (news - web sites) has opened a slight lead over John Kerry (news - web sites) while regaining the confidence of some voters on the economy and other domestic issues, according to an Associated Press poll with a silver lining for Democrats.

The addition of Sen. John Edwards (news - web sites) to Kerry's ticket appears to have helped the Democrat in the South and among low-income voters — a result the Massachusetts senator had hoped for when he selected the North Carolina populist over more seasoned politicians.

<snip>

The AP-Ipsos poll found Bush leading Kerry just outside the margin of error, with the president's support at 49 percent, Kerry at 45 percent and independent candidate Ralph Nader (news - web sites) at 3 percent. The Bush-Kerry matchup was tied a month ago, when Nader had 6 percent.

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&e=4&u=/ap/20040708/ap_on_el_pr/presidential_ap_poll

[PROGRESSIVE1]

1. I call BULLSHIT!!!

[Walt Starr]

4. I think the key factor is the poll took place

partially during the time before the Edwards pick was announced.

[Tellurian]

2. Really? Who do they think they are kidding? nt

[tom_paine]

32. They think they are kidding the Imperial Subjects of Amerika.

And they are right.

For the few Free Americans such as we who are still around, it is a Soviet Nightmare without the brutality and Gulags...for a little while longer.

[Tellurian]

37. tom-tom...at this stage of the game..

I think they are paying (big money buying polls) to kid themselves...

America, the sleeping GIANT has awoken!

[bif]

3. Total bullshit

Just another lie from the media.

[David__77]

5. This will be a hard race, but please keep in mind...

Reagan was trailing Carter substantially at this point during 1980. I think we have a few surprises in store for Bush & Co. But everyone who cares about this election will have to take concrete actions to get people to vote to restore this nation.

[Wickerman]

6. Wow, is this from the Onion?

that is hilarious!

[cthrumatrix]

7. of course they know this is wrong.... but they are paid whores

[Mithras61]

8. Wasn't there a web site...

that was posted here a few months back where the author of the site tracked poll trends using the polls of various organizations plotted on a single chart? If I recall correctly, it was cited as useful for tracking trends in the polling instead of simply decrying or celebrating an individual poll.

[Crachet2004]

10. Yeah, you can access it through Kos...pollcats, or some such. EOM

[Mithras61]

20. Thanks! found it here...

http://tis.goringe.net/pop/pollofpolls.html

and another here...

[gbwarming]

14. http://www.pollkatz.homestead.com/ nt

[Dover]

9. I'm a poll watcher, I'm a poll watcher, watching polls go by..my oh my

Maybe people will get a clue about polls some day...
Until then the polls will dictate the public's self perception and reality.

[Walt Starr]

15. Please, do not shoot the messenger

I suspect this poll will be cited by the media whores instead of the 20 or so others that have Kerry in the lead.

[Dover]

22. Messengers such as the whore media manipulate the message all the time

by ommission, addition or outright distortion of the facts, and polls are no different. Many variables to play with in order to achieve a particular outcome. You must SEE the actual poll and the polling questions, the number of people polled, their demographics and other info, etc. Etc. ETC., to gauge their accuracy.

[Walt Starr]

25. Not those messengers

I was talking about a DUer posting late breaking news about a poll the Reichwingers are sure to be citing.

Mainly, me as the messenger in this instance.

:)

[CatWoman]

35. Bingo!!!

Hannity was crowing about it as I listened to him during my ride home from work.

[Beetwasher]

11. There's Always At Least ONE Poll That Bucks The Trend

The trend is what matters people and the trend has been going Kerry's way...This poll is definitely an outlier...

[lancdem]

18. It's possible Bush may have gotten a brief respite

over the July 4 holiday, when there was no bad news about Iraq, etc. I think that's why his approval rating is up to 50 percent (notice, too, Karl Rove quoted in this article. Hmmm). It'll be interesting to see where the polls are a week or so from now. Zogby also had Bush's approval up a bit, to 49 percent, and it was done at about the same time.

[Mr.Green93]

12. Outlier

[West Coast Democrat]

13. This poll has normally slanted toward Bush in previous polls

compared to other polls

[dArKeR]

16. 'Whore' Russert said Bush looks really bad. This doesn'tt look positive.

He went through an entire list of damning poll figures. Both for Bush and Cheney. I'd never seen 'Whore' Russert look this honestly gloomy. This was on yesterdays evening news. The poll was current because it was based on Edwards VP announcement.

'Whore' Russet added that the Edwards effect really hasn't kicked in yet either. Bush was going to have really more trouble in the future. Edwards, a young man with visiion of the future going against and older Cheney. (Implying Edwards was going to kick Cheney's ass.)

The survey asked who do you trust if the President died. Overwhelming Edwards was chosen. (and no one knows Edwards yet and he's so young.) Which led 'Whore' Russet to pause in drooling thought.

Then 'Whore' was asked what will the aWol campainge do.

'Whore': "They will try to reinvent Edwards".

They way 'Whore' said this he meant they will just lie about Edwards.

--------

After seeing this, I honestly haven't felt this good in years. 'Whore' Russet coming out and saying it was over for Bush and had the stats showing Kerry/Edwards way ahead with no hope for aWol/Cheney.

Then this is reported by AP. What the heck is going on in America?

[HuckleB]

21. Yeah, I saw that, too. It was shocking.

[still_one]

17. Rasmussen daily tracking poll has them tied

[HuckleB]

19. If this is true, I give up.

I really frickin' do.

[pinniped]

23. Ya right. Bad news 24/7 for the thugs in the wh and this?

I'd hate to see the jerks' poll numbers if they didn't fcuk up 24/7.

Whatever.

Bizarro world.

[llmart]

24. Complete horse hockey!

Don't believe this for a minute. It's an AP poll and they're biased towards repugs. All other polls show Kerry ahead. This is an attempt to sway voters, but it's more than likely based on bad science.

[underpants]

26. I heard Hannity read this and couldn't believe it -11 point jump w/ women

I heard this on the way home and couldn't believe it. I trust the poll but notice that this and the Zogby poll where both done Before or during the Edwards pick.

11 points with women?

Bush gained ground among suburban women, a key constituency that increased its backing for Bush from 41 percent in June to 52 percent.

[quaoar]

27. Zogby poll

Kerry-Edwards Pulls In Ahead of Bush-Cheney 48%-46%; No Big Bounce for Kerry; Country Still Evenly Divided in Red and Blue States; Nearly One in Ten Likely Voters Say that “Their Vote is Not Counted Accurately,” New Zogby America Poll Reveals


The newly announced Democratic Presidential ticket of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry and former North Carolina Senator John Edwards enters the race with a two point lead over President George W. Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney (48%-46%), according to a new Zogby America poll. The poll of 1008 likely voters was conducted Tuesday and Wednesday (July 6-7, 2004). Overall results have a margin of sampling error of +/-3.1.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews839.html

[underpants]

28. Rove quoted directly-Me thinks WH access is at stake

When was the last time you saw Rove quoted directly?

"The conditions for a Bush victory are all there - a strong economy, an improving position in the global war on terror and a growing sense that there are sharp and clear differences in values between the two campaigns," said top Bush adviser Karl Rove.

[lancdem]

31. Exactly

I found that very odd.

[sampsonblk]

29. Don't Panic!

Don't lose your wits now. We have a fight on our hands - especially with the two candidates we have. Bush has the whole country scared out of their minds about "terra" and "libruls." For nearly four years, our party leaders have caved in to this crook. And now we look weeak. Dem candidates are afraid to mention they are liberal. They are afraid to mention if they support full equality for gays and lesbians.

It may be up to us. We may have to bug our friends, talk to everyone who will listen, and drag friends and neighbors to the polls in November. This is going to be a tough election, considering the hand we've been dealt. And if its anything like 2000, it will be crooked too.

Its time to roll up our sleeves. Promote Kerry, demote Bush.

[JCMach1]

30. Nader does NOT have 6%

[AlGore-08.com]

34. Nader might have 6%

He was polling up to (I think) around 8% in 2000. Every poll I have read that discusses more than the total (Kerry X% to Bush Y%) shows that conservative Pugs are very committed to Smirk, but liberal Dems are lukewarm about Kerry and "persuadable".

There are more young voters paying attention to the election in this cycle, and they are more likely to embrace sweeping solutions than incremental/practical ones. They are more likely to be anti-war, and Nader is the only candidate who is running on a "get out of Iraq immediately" platform.

IMNSHO, another very important thing about young voters is that they didn't live through election 2000. They don't have the same emotional response to it that folks who lived through it do. To them, the stolen election has as much (or as little) emotional resonance as any other historical event, like WWI. Most of them don't even know what Nader's role was, what he did and what he said. They only know what he's saying now.

[Sterling]

38. The kids motivated to vote know about Florida.

In fact they seem to be more concerned than the Dem party which is bad for the party. We may lose them for the reasons you gave AND the lame response of the party in supporting fair elections.

[truthisfreedom]

33. nah-uhh. try again, AP.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x673618

[AlFrankenFan]

36. Well I'm glad it helped in the South...

...BUT HOW THE FUCK DOES BUSH GET AHEAD OF KERRY????

Could it be because of a certain "threat" that may not exist that has been brought up just today? Hmm...

[Nancy Waterman]

40. new MSNBC poll

According to the poll, which was conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International, a Kerry-Edwards ticket gets support from 49 percent of registered voters, while President Bush and Vice President Cheney get 41 percent, and independent Ralph Nader and running mate Peter Camejo get 4 percent. In a two-way race, Kerry-Edwards leads Bush-Cheney, 54 percent to 43 percent.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5388317

Any brief kick for Bush in the past few weeks would have to do with the handover in Iraq. As the violence continues there, that bump (as little as it is) will go.

[AlFrankenFan]

41. Yes, let time pass...

:evilgrin: *evil laughter*

[The_Casual_Observer]

39. 49% ? Bush hasn't had 49% for months.

Interesting that they are getting Karl's slant on things here. This contradicts all the other data as well as common sense. It would be impossible for chimp to have numbers this "good" in this stage of the game.