Rasmussen Update: Electoral College Kerry 254- Bush 197

[louis c]

Rasmussen Polling service has updated their Electoral College Projection by moving Oregon from a toss-up catagory to "leans Kerry" with new polling data showing a 50%-42% Kerry lead.

In addition Arkansas moved from "leans Bush" to toss-up with yesterday's data showing a Kerry lead of 46%-45%. A month ago Bush lead in Arkansas by five points.

For the third day in a row, Kerry-Edwards have held a lead of three points or better in the overall National ratings, 48%-44%.

Rasmussen has a three day rolling average tracking poll, updated daily. I find this a very interesting site, with most of their information offered free.


http://rasmussenreports.com

[boobooday]

1. Wahoo! And Oregon will go FULL KERRY

When Bush is done trashing their states rights on assisted suicide.

http://www.wgoeshome.com

[calico1]

2. I find it very odd that the majority

of voters actually think Bush is doing a better job with the economy. What is wrong with these people? Of course, we don't know how the questions were asked.

[louis c]

11. The best thing about Rasmussen...........

is that he leans to the right, politically.

Therefore, if we're ahead here, you know, for sure, we're ahead.

One thing about conservative business folks, they like to make money. If Rasmussen's credibility is questioned, his site becomes useless and unprofitable.

I like the fact he trends right, and I factor that in. As a result, this has become my most reliable polling source.

[calico1]

15. Thanks, that makes me feel a whole lot better!

[JoFerret]

36. Leaning to the right is

NEVER a good thing. And certainly adds ZERO credibility.

[louis c]

38. When polling data comes from the right

and shows Kerry in the lead, the other side can't say it's biased in our favor. It's the old "even your guy says" system.

Let me explain. When I was a kid play playground baseball, with no umpires, just kids playing ball, there would inevitably be a close call during the game. If a player from the other side agreed with the opposing teams position, we would say "even your guy says"... and that would end the argument.

Same goes here. When I tout this poll, the other side will say "CNN, New York Times, Washington Post" and I will reply "NO, sir, even your guy says"..............

[Ediacara]

27. What I find odd is that

He shows Kerry having an 8 percent lead in Oregon, yet that's only leans Kerry....

[papau]

30. Some new national polls from pollingreport.com

.

CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. July 8-11, 2004. N=706 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.
Bush/
Cheney Kerry/
Edwards Nader/
Camejo None/
Other (vol.) No
Opinion
% % % % %
7/8-11/04
45 50 2 1 2

Investor's Business Daily/Christian Science Monitor/TIPP poll conducted TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence. July 6-10, 2004. N=800 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5. .

"If the 2004 election for United States president were held today and the following were candidates, for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat John Kerry or Republican George W. Bush?" Names rotated
George
W. Bush John
Kerry Not
Sure .

% % %
7/6-10/04 44 49 7
6/14-19/04 44 44 13

"If the 2004 election for United States president were held today and the following were candidates, for whom would you vote? Would you say Democrat John Kerry, Republican George W. Bush or independent Ralph Nader?" Names rotated

George
W. Bush John
Kerry Ralph
Nader Not
Sure
% % % %
7/6-10/04 43 47 4 6
6/14-19/04 44 41 6 10

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. July 8-9, 2004. N=1,001 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4 (for all registered voters).

"Suppose the election were being held TODAY and you had the following three choices for president and vice president: George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans; John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats; and Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, the independent or third party candidates. Who would you vote for?" If none of these: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush and Cheney, the Republicans; Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats; or Nader and Camejo, the third party candidates?"
Bush/
Cheney Kerry/
Edwards Nader/
Camejo Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % % %
ALL 44 47 3 6

"Suppose there were only two choices for president and vice president and you HAD TO CHOOSE between George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, the Republicans; and John Kerry and John Edwards, the Democrats. If the election were held TODAY, who would you vote for?" If neither: "As of TODAY, do you LEAN more toward Bush and Cheney, the Republicans, or Kerry and Edwards, the Democrats?"
Bush/
Cheney Kerry/
Edwards Other (vol.)/
Undecided
% % %
7/8-9/04 45 51 4

"In general, would you like to see George W. Bush reelected to another term as president, or not?" .

Yes No Unsure
% % %
7/8-9/04 43 52 5
5/13-14/04 41 51 8
3/25-26/04 45 50 5
Time Poll conducted by Ken Dautrich and Chris Barnes. July 6-8, 2004. N=774 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.
"Suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today, and you had to choose between Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican -- for whom would you vote?"

6/2-4/04: Asked of undecideds: "Even though you haven't made up your mind yet, do you lean more toward supporting Bush or Kerry?"

.

George
W. Bush John
Kerry Other (vol.)/
Unsure
% % %
7/6-8/04 45 49 6
6/2-4/04 49 48 3

"Now suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today, and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader -- for whom would you vote?"
6/2-4/04: "Now suppose the 2004 election for president were being held today, and you had to choose between George W. Bush, the Republican, John Kerry, the Democrat, and Ralph Nader, running as an independent -- for whom would you vote?" If undecided: "Even if you haven't made up you mind yet, do you lean more toward supporting Bush, Kerry, or Nader?"

George
W. Bush John
Kerry Ralph
Nader Unsure
% % % %
7/6-8/04 45 47 4 5
6/2-4/04 48 43 6 3

Zogby America Poll. July 6-7, 2004. N=1,008 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.1.

.

General Election Trial Heats:
George
W. Bush John
Kerry Other (vol.)/
Unsure .

% % % .

7/6-7/04 44 46 9 .

[SoCalDem]

3. MY results... Kerry 283......Bush 255...doesn't even need FLA

calculate your own results here:
http://www.edwardsforprez.com/map.html

[Peachhead22]

6. Kerry will take N.H.

Not a huge deal, only a couple electoral college votes. Kerry will take New Hampshire. Bet on it.

[SoCalDem]

7. I think so too, but I was being cautious :) ie..Ralphie

:)

[trogdor]

37. You mean this guy?

http://www.hbo.com/sopranos/cast/character/ralph_cifaretto.shtml

If the mafia gave out a Mr. Congeniality Award, Ralph Cifaretto would never be in contention for it. Mr. Obnoxious, however, would be his in a walk. Sarcastic, belligerent and misogynistic - even by wise guy standards - Ralph was easily Tony's least favorite business associate. Despite being a very smart man (albeit one who dropped out of school in the eleventh grade), Ralph was prone to making grossly inappropriate comments at the worst possible moment. When a young associate was in a coma, Ralph commented to the guy's brother, "Look at the bright side - he wasn't that smart to begin with."

[carolinayellowdog]

10. Maryland and Delaware are solid Dem

No source I've seen has said otherwise. But unless the red/blue meme from 2000 has taken too firm a hold, change your colors. Blue means incumbent party, not Democrats, and thus the scheme changes this year. I predict that you're wrong on at least two of these: NV, NC, NH, VA, AR, LA, NV, FL.

[SoCalDem]

12. That's good to know.. The map is for electoral votes ..not incumbent

YOU can click it to see the various combinations.. click the link and see what you come up with,, It's fun..

[yellowcanine]

14. I agree - this must be a mistake - no way is MD close to going for Bush

this time. Yes, we have a Pubbie guv but that had more to do with the candidates than the party and the difficulty of energizing the Democratic base in a non-presidential election year. Believe me, that is not a problem this year. Last I saw, Kerry was up by at least 10 points and that was before Edwards was added to the ticket.

[SoCalDem]

17. Using your predictions.... Kerry...364

[Beetwasher]

13. You Have NH, MD and DE going Bush???

No way that's gonna happen!

[SoCalDem]

18. Click the link people.. it's an interactive map.. play around with it

http://www.edwardsforprez.com/map.html

[louis c]

16. I'm more confident of Fla. than Ohio

and don't count out AZ., Va., and N.C.

How in heaven's name do you have Maryland in Red. Every poll has us up by double digits there. And Del. is sure Kerry.

Mo. in blue is a stretch.

I can't agree with your map, where do you get your data?

[SoCalDem]

20. LINK here.. I was being SUPER cautious..Do your own...it's fun !!

http://www.edwardsforprez.com/map.html

[booksenkatz]

29. Hoo boy

I just came up with 269-269.

I'm gonna go ride my bike and ruminate.

(Moo)

[AndyTiedye]

32. Because of Diebold

> How in heaven's name do you have Maryland in Red.

If truevotemd prevails, let it be blue again.

[jobycom]

4. 44% say we are winning the war on terrorism

Think of how stupid Bush is. He builds his election strategy around how great he has been fighting terrorism, and then he issues bogus warnings every month that the big one is coming soon.

Moore may be right that Bush is using fear to control America, but ultimately people get tired of the fear and want to try something new.

Bush is in deep trouble.

[Trajan]

5. Isnt that the truth ....

The irony seems lost on millions of lock-step GOP supporters ....

George Bush is SO wonderful in protecting us that we now fear imminent attacks by Terrorists and the cancellation of Democracy ...

Yeah .. Idnt that SPECIAL ? ...

THANK YOU FOR PROTECTING US GEORGE AND THE GOP ! ....

</sarcasm>

[yellowcanine]

8. Different polls have different results but trend is clear. Red states are

moving to tossup. Tossup states are turning blue. And Blue states are becoming darker blue. Kerry's base is fired up and becoming more so even as Bush's base becomes more restless and the swing voters are starting to move in Kerry's direction. The noise from the administration about postponing the election will only add to Bush's problems with his base and with swing voters and may blunt any positive bounce he might get from a major terrorist attack. Bush may not be cooked yet but he is beginning to feel the heat.

[CreekDog]

9. Starting to look like Clinton/Gore's #'s in 1992

Clinton was in third place, struggling to rise in the polls, Bush was stuck in 2nd. After picking Gore, he numbers started to climb. Of course, Perot dropped out, citing an 'invigorated' Democratic Party.

I remember going camping out in the desert before the convention with Clinton in 3rd place behind Perot and Bush. I emerged days later to find that Perot had dropped out and that Clinton was surging and taking the lead in national polls.

Who needs sports with this kind of excitement? Except for baseball.

[calico1]

19. Now if only Kerry could speak like Clinton!

Nevertheless I am encouraged.

[cybildisobedience]

22. Now if we could only have an election!!!

[louis c]

21. Actually,

the numbers trend toward 1980, with Kerry in the role of the challenger, Reagan, and Bush in the role of the incumbent, Carter.

At this point in 1980, Carter and Reagan were neck and neck, with Carter having very low approval rating.

Nader is in the role of Anderson.

Result, landslide Kerry.

[wish_I_could_vote]

23. I smell a Kerry landslide also

one thing I am hearing a lot is " I am republican, but I just cannot vote for Bush. Guess i will sit this one out". I am not hearing any democrats suggesting they might stay home.

I spend a lot of time on a mainly conservative message board. Many of them are really pissed at this constitutional amendment crap. They see it for exactly what it is, and kudos to them for being able to do so. These are people who defend Bush no matter what he does, but this time he has gone too far.

[lucky777]

24. You're Way Off -- I think Kerry will lose at this rate

I spent hours playing with the LA Times interactive model this weekend and I came to the opposite conclusion: Kerry will lose unless he takes FL. He's behind in NC, AK, PA, OH -- and other states that you have given to him.

The LA Times map has all the latest polls. It comes down to FL again.

If he loses OH or PA, then he needs FL -- it is that simple.

I wish that I could agree with you, but I can't.

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-polldatapage.htmlstory


Edit to add link.

[louis c]

25. Kerry is up in Penn. and Fla.

You have to be kidding.

All historical models favor Kerry, as the challenger.

He will carry every state Gore carried in 2000, including Fla.

Add W.V., AZ., N.H., Ohio., and maybe VA.,Mo. and N.C.

Expect a Kerry Landslide.

[lucky777]

26. I disagree, with all respect

I wish you were right. But I live in OH, in Columbus (the largest city), and I see maybe 4 Bush stickers for each Kerry sticker; all of the polls I've seen here have Bush ahead or even; I'd be hugely surprised if Kerry won OH. Same for PA -- at best I have Kerry even in these states -- at best.

Now consider that Kerry has momentum right now. What happens in the next few months when Bush starts with the propaganda?

Do the following -- run the model without giving OH, PA, NC to Kerry. Now tell me if we need FL?

I predict it will come down to FL again.

[Longhorn]

28. I guess there are many "latest polls" out there besides the ones

the LA Times uses because the Votemaster at www.electoral-vote.com has Kerry winning 292-246. Be sure to read the paragraphs below the map where he/she explains the rationale each day when the map is updated.

[lucky777]

31. Your map confirms my point -- Kerry needs FL

Assuming an Ohio/Penn split, the election turns on FL. Right?

[4_Legs_Good]

33. Do you really think Ohio is out for Kerry???

That would be bad. I say it all depends on Ohio. We cannot count on Florida, there's just too much that could be mischevioused (new word!) down there. We need to concentrate on Ohio.

Is Cleveland pretty conservative?

I'm in California so I feel pretty cut off from the real races. Gotta take Ohio, gotta take Ohio, gotta take Ohio.

david

[llmart]

35. Cleveland area is Dem.

n/t

[mom cat]

34. I just saw John and Thresa last night and they have hit there stride!

There is an energy and enthusiasm that are contageous. We have got traction and my gut predicts a landslide. :dem: :party: