STOCK MARKET WATCH, Wednesday 14 July

[ozymandius]

Wednesday July 14, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 194
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 215 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 269 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 482
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 965
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions:Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

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U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

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AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 13, 2004

Dow... 10,247.59 +9.37 (+0.09%)
Nasdaq... 1,931.66 -5.26 (-0.27%)
S&P 500... 1,115.14 +0.79 (+0.07%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.48% +0.04 (+0.81%)
Gold future... 402.30 -6.20 (-1.54%)


|||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

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PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

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[ozymandius]

1. WrapUp by Ike Iossif - WEEKLY CHARTS

-lotsa charts-

Summary

You probably recall that in the Weekly report for week ending 6-25-04, we gave you three possible scenarios with regards to what we thought could develop over the next 2 weeks (see archives, 6-25-04) It turned out that scenario #1 took place, and as it stands right now, the SP is at support. From here we may see an additional decline with a magnitude of no more than 2.5%-3.0%, or the SP, just like the rest of the indices, could turn back up again and try to re-test the previous resistance. Given that all indicators are below zero, the odds favor more the former than the latter. However, given that next week is options' expiration which tend to have a bullish bias, we wouldn't be surprised at all to see a choppy rally instead, even if the odds are in favor of more price weakness. Use the support/resistance levels listed on the table below for your entry/exit points, but limit the size of your bets in order to control risk better in a choppy market.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

2. U.S. Stocks Set to Fall; Intel Weighs

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures pointed to a lower market open on Wednesday, with a disappointing outlook from the world's biggest chip maker, Intel Corp. (Nasdaq:INTC - news), weighing on technology stocks.

Intel on Tuesday cut its profit margin forecasts and said inventories rose, even though it reported an 18 percent rise in quarterly revenue and a near doubling of profit.

"Obviously, Intel is a disappointment and though it's not that bad, it's spooking investors," said Peter Cardillo, chief market analyst with S.W. Back & Co.

story

[54anickel]

5. The future charts aren't looking too healthy again, Where's the waterline?

S&P -5.30
NAS -13.00
DOW -43.00

[54anickel]

3. Saudi Arabia Ratifies a Fait Accompli

http://www.prudentbear.com/internationalperspective.asp

As July began, Saudi Arabian officials announced that they were satisfied with the current level of world oil prices, around $35 a barrel -- the clearest indication yet that the kingdom has abandoned support for the old OPEC price range of $22-$28 per barrel. Saudi Arabia's oil minister Ali al-Naimi indicated that, at current levels, oil prices were "fair." Two implications flow from this:

*The Saudis have now lined up with the rest of the OPEC cartel in implicitly suggesting that the old reference benchmark of $22-$28 was less than fair. From this flows a simple but dramatic conclusion: It is highly unlikely that we shall see an "October surprise" in which the Saudis flood the crude oil market in order to bring prices down sharply and thereby help ensure a Bush re-election. Faced with rising welfare costs and escalating political tensions, the kingdom has a corresponding need for additional capital expenditure for increased oil capacity. Goldman Sachs estimates that the Saudis require an average price of at least $30 a barrel over the next 5 years just to maintain real per capita expenditure.

snip>

Although speculation in futures markets contributed earlier this month to a fall in the price of crude below $40, prices have since bounced back to the $40 level. The US government itself has now raised its central forecast for crude to average $37 a barrel over the next 18 months. Just 3 months ago, it had forecast crude falling below $30 a barrel. Strong growth in global energy demand, a loss of capacity in some OPEC states, and rising depletion rates will all continue to contribute to a much tighter market. Moreover, as the Financial Times notes, "A build-up of inventories is now needed ahead of peak seasonal demand in the fourth quarter. But higher crude inventories do not address the problem of insufficient refining capacity in the US."

It is beside the point to maintain that current prevailing high oil prices are the result of a "political instability" premium, when the Saudis have set themselves up for additional terrorist attacks on their oil installations through repeated pledges to boost oil production and drive down prices. The Saudis were the only OPEC member to come out of the Amsterdam meeting 3 weeks ago with planned production hikes. This isolated position has likely earned them the ire of terrorists and given them a further vested interest in disrupting oil production, as has already been occurring with increasing frequency in Iraq over the past 12 months. Some security experts believe that key Saudi installations like Ras Tanoura and Abqaiq, the world's largest oil-processing complex, are vulnerable to attack. Questions about the competence and loyalty of elements within the Saudi security forces remain, as their ranks are said to be infiltrated by Islamic extremists. Recent attacks on foreign oil personnel in the kingdom seem to have revealed intricate personal and tribal links between the security forces and the alleged Al Qaeda operatives in the country. A shut down of these installations would up the tab for a debt-ridden, cheap-oil driven American economy currently importing almost 60% of its crude from abroad.

"Whither oil prices?" is not simply an academic question. Future American economic growth is largely dependent upon reliable, accessible, and affordable supplies of energy. Hints of an impending oil-production peak are already beginning to impact seriously on economic growth against a backdrop of unprecedented financial fragility. The inexorable tightening of supply is destabilizing oil markets, which now manifest extreme price behavior in response to the smallest potential disturbance. Higher oil prices continue to increase the strain on consumption, particularly in the United States, while simultaneously reducing disposable income. How well equipped are we to deal with substantially higher energy prices? This is a question that no policy maker has honestly confronted yet. The markets remain in denial, but high energy prices are the new economic reality.

much more...

[54anickel]

4. Bubble Blower

http://www.prudentbear.com/archive_comm_article.asp?category=Guest+Commentary&content_idx=34099

snip>

As Martin Mayer has observed in his book “The Fed”, the Fed’s control over the money supply has diminished because non-bank financial institutions realize so much credit creation and “credit could be substituted for money at the margin in many guises.” The new reality of our credit-soaked economy is that control of the money supply is virtually impossible. The capital and money markets now dominate finance, with banks only a subset.

The distinction between money and credit is sometimes a blurred one in today’s world. We won’t get into the finer distinctions here. For us, it is enough to know that credit, like money, represents ready purchasing power. Purchasing power that is increasingly being manufactured outside of the sphere of banking and used to finance the purchase of assets such as stocks and real estate. Non-bank financial institutions, notably the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but also others non-bank finance companies, have driven the creation of a seemingly bottomless and borderless money market.

This is a point that Doug Noland at PrudentBear has been hammering away at for years, which is mainly to get people to appreciate the contemporary financial system’s extraordinary ability to create credit unrestrained by the traditional reserve requirements that bind banks. Fannie Mae, for example, can create instruments (its notes) that can be held as money market fund holdings. It has the ability to facilitate the creation of additional purchasing power through money market fund intermediation. Banks do not have to be involved at all. An initial deposit made at a money market fund can create additional deposits at a greater rate than traditional bank deposits, again, because the money markets are not part of the reserve requirements of banks.

In fact, as Grant notes in the Interest Rate Observer, less than 3.6% of today’s broadly defined money stock is subject to reserve requirements, as opposed to 38% in 1959. This is important because the Fed’s primary means of influencing the money supply is to create (or restrict) additional bank reserves through its open market purchases (or sales) of government securities held by banks. It is through these open market operations that the Fed tries to maintain its Fed funds rate target. It does not even control that with certainty; we are not talking about a rate that is set. The Fed strongly influences that rate so that it may appear to be set, but it does not set it in a formal sense.

more...

[54anickel]

6. Jobless find new work, not old standard of living

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2001979079_jobless14.html

snip>

Except for the booming construction industry, high-wage jobs are returning more slowly than those on the lower end of the pay spectrum, according to figures collected by the state.

In 2003, the last full calendar year analyzed, jobs paying less than $20 an hour grew to 61 percent of all new jobs created in Washington, up from 57 percent in 2002.

By contrast, new jobs paying more than $20 an hour dropped to 39 percent from 43 percent.

"This is typical of a serious recession," said Roberta Pauer, a regional economist for the state.

more...


Pay Raises Remain Lower Than 1990s Levels

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/business/AP-Pay-Raises.html

NEW YORK (AP) -- Despite an improved economy, cost-conscious employers are granting workers limited pay raises this year, and plan only slightly larger increases in 2005.

Companies are budgeting pay increases of 3.3 percent to 3.5 percent this year -- the third in a row below the 4 percent-plus level that was routine in the 1990s -- and plan raises of 3.5 percent next year, according to a pair of surveys.

The modest raises both this year and next will keep workers' pay increasing faster than the rate of inflation. But higher worker contributions for health care could eat up much of the pay gains, analysts said.

Employers have seen business conditions improve. But in a labor market that still favors companies, employers are wary of taking on the largely permanent costs of big pay raises, said a survey to be released Wednesday by Mercer Human Resource Consulting.

That dynamic is unlikely to change much in the next few years, concludes the Mercer survey and another issued last month by the Conference Board.

more...

[UpInArms]

7. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.61 Change -0.21 (-0.24%)

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=5662023

Yen Sheds Gains Made on Bank Merger Talk

TOKYO (Reuters) - The yen weakened slightly against major currencies on Wednesday after Japanese stock prices showed a lukewarm response to reports that two of Japan's largest banks were in merger talks.

The yen had earlier got a brief boost on the media reports that Mitsubishi Tokyo Financial Group (MTFG), Japan's third-largest bank, and fourth-ranked UFJ Holdings would join forces.

Both banks later said they would consider a merger.

"Foreign investors in particular see consolidation in Japan's banking sector as a sign of progress for structural reforms, so it's no surprise that we saw a little yen buying on the news," said Tomokazu Ohno, forex strategist at Shinko Securities.

...more...

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/AFX/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=MTFH58953_2004-07-14_10-23-25_N2W321256

Gold firms quietly in Europe, watches dollar, data

LONDON, July 14 (Reuters) - Gold gained $1.50 and held over the $400 mark in Europe on Wednesday as prices recovered some of the sharp losses seen on Tuesday when stronger-than-expected U.S. trade data lifted the dollar and dented gold's appeal.

Spot gold <XAU=> stood at $403.55/404.00 per troy ounce by 1007 GMT, versus $402.00/402.75 last quoted in New York on Tuesday.

Dealers said the market would probably trade broadly sideways during the morning ahead of more U.S. data later in the day -- watched for their impact on the U.S. currency, as a stronger dollar makes bullion more expensive for non- U.S. investors.

"We're slightly above last night's New York close, but there are not a lot of flows coming through at the moment and nothing significant is really seen ahead of the U.S. numbers," a dealer said.

...more...

Lots of reports due out today -

Jul 14 8:30 AM
Export Prices ex-ag. Jun
- NA NA 0.2% -

Jul 14 8:30 AM
Import Prices ex-oil Jun
- NA NA 0.4% -

Jul 14 8:30 AM
Retail Sales Jun
- -0.7% -0.7% 1.2% -

Jul 14 8:30 AM
Retail Sales ex-auto Jun
- 0.3% 0.2% 0.7%

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

8. here's some of the numbers

8:30am 07/14/04

U.S. JUNE RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS FALL 0.2%

8:30am 07/14/04

U.S. JUNE RETAIL SALES BIGGEST DECLINE SINCE FEB. 2003

8:30am 07/14/04

U.S. MAY RETAIL SALES REVISED TO 1.4% VS. 1.2%

8:30am 07/14/04

U.S. JUNE RETAIL SALES EX-AUTOS, EX-GAS DOWN 0.1%

8:30am 07/14/04

U.S. JUNE AUTO SALES FALL 4.3%, MOST SINCE FEB. 2003

[54anickel]

9. None of Your Business!

http://www.house.gov/paul/tst/tst2004/tst071204.htm

You may not have heard of the American Community Survey, but you will. The national census, which historically is taken every ten years, has expanded to quench the federal bureaucracy’s ever-growing thirst to govern every aspect of American life. The new survey, unlike the traditional census, is taken each and every year at a cost of hundreds of millions of dollars. And it’s not brief. It contains 24 pages of intrusive questions concerning matters that simply are none of the government’s business, including your job, your income, your physical and emotional heath, your family status, your dwelling, and your intimate personal habits.

The questions are both ludicrous and insulting. The survey asks, for instance, how many bathrooms you have in your house, how many miles you drive to work, how many days you were sick last year, and whether you have trouble getting up stairs. It goes on and on, mixing inane questions with highly detailed inquiries about your financial affairs. One can only imagine the countless malevolent ways our federal bureaucrats could use this information. At the very least the survey will be used to dole out pork, which is reason enough to oppose it.

Keep in mind the survey is not voluntary, nor is the Census Bureau asking politely. Americans are legally obligated to answer, and can be fined up to $1,000 per question if they refuse!

snip>

The census also represents a form of corporate welfare, since the personal data collected on hundred of millions of Americans can be sold to private businesses. Surely business enjoys having such extensive information available from one source, but it’s hardly the duty of taxpayers to subsidize the cost of market research.

At least the national census has its origins in the Constitution, which is more than one can say about the vast majority of programs funded by Congress. Still, Article I makes it clear that the census should be taken every ten years for the sole purpose of congressional redistricting (and apportionment of taxes, prior to the disastrous 16th amendment). This means a simple count of the number of people living in a given area, so that numerically equal congressional districts can be maintained. The founders never authorized the federal government to continuously survey the American people.

more...

[UpInArms]

10. Reports Numbers

Jul 14 8:30 AM
Export Prices ex-ag. Jun
reported -0.1%
briefing.com anticipated NA
market expected NA
last report 0.3%
revised from 0.2%

Jul 14 8:30 AM
Import Prices ex-oil Jun
reported unch
briefing.com anticipated NA
marketed expected NA
last report 0.3%
revised from 0.4%

Jul 14 8:30 AM
Retail Sales Jun
reported -1.1%
briefing.com anticipated -0.7%
market expected -0.7%
last report 1.4%
revised from 1.2%

Jul 14 8:30 AM
Retail Sales ex-auto Jun
reported -0.2%
briefing.com anticipated 0.3%
market expected 0.2%
last report 0.9%
revised from 0.7%

[54anickel]

11. The Burden of Monetarism

Hmmm, here we go again?

http://wanniski.com/PrintPage.asp?TextID=3687

Six months after Ronald Reagan was inaugurated as the nation’s 40th President, the tax cuts he promised the American people were passed by the Democratic Congress and put in place. Instead of celebrating as one of the architects of the policy, I wrote a commentary for the Sunday business section of The New York Times warning that the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve were crippling the economy. It was a broadside attack on the monetarists whose theories had been sold to the Carter administration in October 1979 and were the primary reason that Mr. Carter was not re-elected in 1980.

When Reagan defeated him that year with his tax-cut promise, he chose supply-siders to fill the key posts in the Treasury Department, but picked monetarists for all the important posts bearing on monetary policy. The big problem was that most supply-siders were “fiscalists,” who assumed the tax cuts would generate an immediate economic boom. I knew the same monetarist theories that had created the great inflation which blew up the Carter administration were in a position to overwhelm the supply effects of the tax cuts, and unless I set the record straight before the economic sank further, the supply-siders and their tax cuts would be blamed for the economic decline. I decided to make my case in a personal attack on the father of monetarism, Milton Friedman, in order to bring the most attention to the case I was making. The Wall Street Journal, my alma mater, would never permit such commentary, but the NYTimes was happy to get the piece and run it as is.

When the economy fell apart in the monetary deflation that followed, supply-siders and the tax cuts were blamed by the Keynesian economists and the politicians who employed them. But White House Chief of Staff James Baker III had heard my arguments in person and saw in the Times piece the extent of my conviction. The dollar price of gold had fallen in the deflation from $625 when Reagan was elected to about $450 when the article ran. As the lower tax rates on labor and capital invited an economic expansion, there was an increased demand for liquidity, and when the Fed did not supply it by creating new bank reserves the dollar became scarce relative to gold and the gold price declined, pulling all prices down to one degree or another.

My article did nothing to bring about change, but it did serve its purpose of putting the blame where it belonged. When gold continued its decline, to under $300 oz in the early months of 1982, the stage was set for the abandonment of monetarism in the summer of that year, when Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, who, with Jim Baker, knew all my arguments, avoided widespread bank failures by creating $3 billion in fresh reserves. The price of gold soared, ending the deflation, and both stocks and bonds had enormous rallies, with the Reagan boom finally enjoying both supply-side legs to drive it ahead. The monetarists inside the administration had predicted such an infusion of easy money would reignite inflation and cause a collapse of the bond market. When the economy boomed instead, that was the end of monetarism, once and for all. It took awhile, but Professor Friedman last year acknowledged the flaw in his theory. All that remains is a way to redefine the dollar in terms of gold, which was what Reagan wanted to do all along.

more...

[UpInArms]

12. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:13AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -6.2. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.0. Futures trade falls to its worst levels in its last minutes of pre-market trading - giving little doubt the cash market will drop noticeably at the open.

9:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -6.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.0. Expectations remain set for a pullback at the start of trading as the futures market budges little from its lows... A report from INTC that raised concerns about the sustainability of the semi upturn has kept buyer away this morning - despite other earnings reports from names like BAC (topped EPS estimates by $0.16).

8:32AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -5.6. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.0. Futures market has little reaction to the weaker than expected June Retail Sales report... The indications had begun falling ahead of the report, and this news has only kept them along their lows... INTC's weak Q2 report and business update, along with the massive losses in Europe and Asia, has only compounded the negative mood.

8:00AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -4.9. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -12.0. Futures indications denote a negative tone, which should translate to a negative start to the day for the cash market... Despite its better than expected EPS result, INTC's Q2 (June) report has proved to be a major letdown for the market... Inventories rose to their highest levels in nearly 10 years, and the tech bellwether cut its FY04 (Dec) gross margin forecast - both indicating there might be overcapacity in the sector.

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was sharply lower overnight and has broken out below the 62% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1434.57. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1414.51 is the next downside target. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 17.00 pts. at 1417 as of 6:50 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends yesterday's breakout below the 50% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1112.70. If September extends last week's decline, the 62% retracement level crossing at 1104.86 is the next downside target. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. The September S&P 500 Index was down 6.30 pts. at 1107.90 as of 6:51 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

13. Market Numbers at 9:31 EST

Dow 10,205.18 -42.41 (-0.41%)
Nasdaq 1,910.90 -20.76 (-1.07%)
S&P 500 1,110.69 -4.45 (-0.40%)
10-Yr Bond 4.490% +0.011

[UpInArms]

14. Dollar Falls Against Euro as U.S. Retail Sales Declined in June

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=aEsq_Gq84pgA&refer=news_index

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell against the euro after sales at U.S. retailers fell 1.1 percent last month, the biggest decline since February 2003.

``The bottom line is that the weaker retail sales number will dampen expectations for Fed rate hikes,'' said Michael Malpede, senior currency strategist in Chicago at Refco Group Ltd., the biggest futures broker on regulated markets. ``The Fed will be in no hurry to hike rates, which is negative for the dollar.''

At 9:01 a.m. in New York, the dollar fell to $1.2404 per euro, from $1.2327 late yesterday, according to EBS, an electronic currency dealing system. The dollar rose against the yen to 108.85 from 108.66 yen late yesterday. Malpede expects the dollar to trade at $1.25 per euro and 106 yen by year-end.

Last month's retail sales, which reflected a drop in spending at automobile dealerships and department stores, contrasts with a revised 1.4 percent increase in May, the Commerce Department said in Washington. Economists had forecast a 0.8 percent drop in June. Excluding vehicles and parts, sales fell 0.2 percent after rising 0.9 percent a month earlier.

...more...

[UpInArms]

20. same song next verse (ECB's Issing)

Dollar Falls Against Euro After Retail Report, Issing Remarks

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000101&sid=afR9K66X_Fmo&refer=japan

July 14 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell against the euro after U.S. retail sales dropped the most since February 2003, which some traders said eases pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise its key interest rate.

The dollar's decline began earlier today after European Central Bank Chief Economist Otmar Issing signaled the central bank is concerned about rising prices. Inflation may raise pressure on the ECB to raise its comparable rate.

``The bottom line is that the weaker retail sales number will dampen expectations for Fed rate hikes,'' said Michael Malpede, senior currency strategist in Chicago at Refco Group Ltd., the biggest futures broker on regulated markets. ``The Fed will be in no hurry to hike rates, which is negative for the dollar.''

At 9:31 a.m. in New York, the dollar fell to $1.2414 per euro, from $1.2327 late yesterday, according to EBS, an electronic currency dealing system. The dollar was little changed against the yen at 108.66. Malpede expects the dollar to trade at $1.25 per euro and 106 yen by year-end.

The Fed's overnight bank lending rate is 1.25 percent and the ECB's rate is 2 percent. Higher prevailing rates make debt and bank deposits in a currency more appealing to overseas investors.

...more...

[54anickel]

15. Mogambo Movie Company presents:Celsius 9/11

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/daughty/daughty071404.html

snip>

Wayne N. Krautkramer wrote an interesting essay entitled "Gentlemen, Man The Lifeboats!" He says "On June 23, 2004, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) changed the rules regulating short sales. Until now, it has been illegal to sell a stock short unless it was sold on an uptick. This was the result of Regulation SHO, which was created by the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. This is a major change in the philosophy of the SEC. The new Regulation SHO will allow short sales without waiting for an uptick."

Now this could be some serious stuff, because the nagging question I have is, "Why now?" Huh? Why now? .....For those of you who like that "Up close and personal" stuff, I turn my head to the camera, lean in, and say "In one of my previous incarnations when I was a junkyard dog, I would cock my head to the side, like this, and raise my ears as if to say 'Huh? I was so cute!"

Anyway, out of the corner of my eye I can see that Mr. Krautkramer wants to get away from this digression into my previous lives, and he is equally as bored with my stories of economies on other planets, too, and so he goes on to say "Since the founding of the SEC in 1934, their philosophy has been to discourage the selling of equities. Short sales have been portrayed as a demonic instrument that will destroy America."

The idea is that if a stock is plummeting because I am an incompetent boob and my gross mismanagement has ruined yet another company (or, heaven forbid, the whole stock market was dropping), then savvy predator guys will e-mail each other and these market vultures will sell my stock short, or all the stocks, as they are falling, adding to the selling pressure. Which makes prices fall even MORE! And the specialists have to buy the shares in a falling market, trying to make a market in the shares because that is their damn job, and that is why they are allowed to always make profits at the expense of everybody else by manipulating their books of business. But now they start sitting on big losses, making them real grumpy. And the poor slobs who are leveraged to the hilt on the long side are getting clobbered by the swoon in prices, and their brokers are on the phone with the dreaded Margin Call From Hell (MCFH), meaning that you better get off your fat butt and get some pants on and get down here immediately to deposit a gigantic chunk of money, more money than you have ever seen in your whole life, into your margin account so that you can hold on to these plummeting stocks that you bought on margin, boldly borrowing the money to buy them, and now the leverage of borrowing the money to buy those falling stocks has now demonstrated the Dreaded Downside Of Leveraged Bets (DDOLB), namely that your pain is multiplied! The stock moves a buck, and you lose ten bucks! Twenty bucks! Fifty bucks! Who know how much leverage is out there? It's BIG BUCKS! And in the time it has taken me to tell you about this, you have lost another $12,000! So, get a move on, dude!

And because you know that you don't have that kind of money and probably never will have, for the rest of your pathetic life, you scream into the phone "Sell! Sell! Get me out! For the love of God, get me out! Sell, you lousy bastard! Sell!" and so the broker looks up at the clock and discovers that it is time to go to lunch and when he finally gets back he will eventually get around to selling those shares, too, driving the market down some more. And all the legions of ordinary holders of the declining assets, like banks and retirement accounts and mutual funds, are watching their assets go up in smoke. And some of them have pledged those shares as collateral for other loans, making everything worse.

And then the government is looking at all those now-lost capital gains, involving billions and billions of dollars. And not only is all that wonderful cascade of capital gains tax money all gone -- poof! -- but the government has to start giving out tax deductions for losses! Everybody is taking a whacking.

So you can see why Alan Greenspan does NOT want a deflation in asset prices. He wants an inflation in all prices instead.

more...

[UpInArms]

16. 9:55 EST Update with blather

Dow 10,207.92 -39.67 (-0.39%)
Nasdaq 1,915.00 -16.66 (-0.86%)
S&P 500 1,111.52 -3.62 (-0.32%)
10-Yr Bond 4.478% -0.001

9:40AM: Stock market takes a hit at the open, undermined by Intel's (INTC) Q2 (June) report last night and disappointing business update... Q2 sales fell short of the consensus estimate of $8.11 bln as inventories rose to 90 days - almost 50% above the average of 63 days... Intel went on to cut its FY04 (Dec) gross margin guidance to 60% from 62% as it anticipates a shift to lower margin products... Analysts believe Intel's inventory and end market demand problem will impact capital expenditure and order plans, which will in turn impact the chip equipment makers...

As such, both groups (SOX -3.7%) are the weakest in the market right now..

dollar sucking pond water

Last trade 87.44 Change -0.38 (-0.43%)

[54anickel]

17. Abject Failure

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/mackenzie/mackenzie071404.html

snip>

Alan Greenspan is not totally oblivious to the realities of America's majority, although his loyalties clearly lay elsewhere. Pontificating hedonically fudged economic indicators is no substitute for the pocketbook reality indicator.

Health-care costs are rising 300% faster than wages. Explaining away the impact upon the "Real Economy's" participants is quickly becoming far less palatable to America's Working Class. I use that term very loosely to include all Americans not feeding at the top tier of first abuser privilege granted to those with immediate access to Chairman Greenspan's "Liquidity Trough."

The CONfidence game is losing its grip. One doesn't need a rapidly escalating College education, in dollar terms, to deduce the obvious.

snip>

Cutting Social Security benefits, sending tertiary jobs overseas, re-jiggering pension benefits while piling on Federal Debt and raiding already under funded future liabilities in order to remain solvent within the confines of the federal budget ceiling, yes, this adds up to a rather amazing miracle in Enron-esque accounting irregularities.

Debt is deflationary, regardless of how it is addressed. It would be best to begin to prepare now, the ending is out there and it may well be much closer than most realize.

more...

[UpInArms]

18. Fewer Sales, Swelling Inventories Keep Intel Earnings Flat

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,1759,1623423,00.asp

Dragged down by lower microprocessor shipments and skyrocketing inventories, Intel on Tuesday reported flat revenue and earnings for the second quarter.

Intel Corp., based in Santa Clara, Calif., reported a net income of $1.8 billion on revenue of $8.05 billion, slightly lower than the $8.1 billion in revenue that analysts expected. While the company's earnings and revenue failed to improve over the first quarter of 2004, Intel's net income increased 96 percent year-over-year, and revenues increased by 18 percent.

Intel reported $5.75 billion in microprocessor revenues, a slight drop from the $5.98 billion the company reported in the first quarter. Chip set and motherboard revenue also fell from $1.05 billion to $1.02 billion, although the company reported increased sales of chip sets, and motherboard sales reached a record high...

To read the full article, you have to have a paid subscription - but thought the short version said a bunch.

[54anickel]

22. Looks like their taking a hit on the margins will effect other techs -

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000103&sid=anRKaf56iErY&refer=us


snip>

``Intel is definitely weighing on the market,'' said Leif Millarg, whose team manages $62 billion at Munich's Activest Investment, including Intel shares. ``Inventories are rising and that's bad news for semiconductor and computer-related stocks.''

snip>

Intel lowered its estimated range for gross margin, or the percentage of revenue left after subtracting the cost of goods sold, by two percentage points. The company, reporting after markets closed yesterday, said it will slow improvements in production to lower inventory levels.

The chipmaker's shares slid $1.13, or 4.3 percent, to $25.01 in Germany, the biggest decline among Dow stocks trading in Europe.

Advanced Micro

Advanced Micro Devices, which supplies personal-computer chips, slid 42 cents to $14.08. The company is set to report earnings after U.S. exchanges close.

Nvidia, the world's biggest maker of computer-graphics chips, dropped 42 cents to $16.06 in Germany.

``Margin guidance from Intel will probably impact the semiconductor sector as a whole and cause stocks to fall today,'' said Nick Sloane, a trader at SEB AG in Frankfurt. ``I would look for more stable investment opportunities, at least until general growth trends can be more clearly discerned.''

more...

[54anickel]

19. Odds of a crash are higher than you think

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/p85428.asp

snip>

A 1-in-5 chance?
When pressed, I told Neil I thought the chance might be as high as 1 in 5. Well, compared to the statistics I've given you, 1 in 5 is a gargantuan number, but I don't know if 1 in 5 is the right number. One in 10 would still be a giant number, as would 1 in 20, relative to "normal." I have no idea what the true probabilities are -- because they are not knowable. Everyone who looks at the potential causes of a dislocation, which I'll get to in a moment, will arrive at different conclusions.

However, what I don’t think is debatable is that the possibilities are far higher than most people would think (if they ever even thought about it). Folks need to factor the possibilities into their investment strategies, or think through the possibilities and dismiss them, should they come to that conclusion. With that preface aside, let me move on to what I think are the ingredients necessary to cause a market dislocation.

snip>

What would the catalysts be?
Finally, you need a catalyst. Here I think the catalyst is far more powerful now than it was in 1987. I was managing money in 1987, and because of the climate I have described, I believed a crash was possible, which was a pretty radical thought back then. At that time, we had an inflation problem building, a belief that the Fed was behind the curve and a falling dollar. The fact that the dollar appeared to be breaking in an uncontrolled manner to the downside in October 1987 was the catalyst that allowed the speculation and the structure to create the implosion we saw.

Today, we not only have a Fed that is behind the curve, but, far more ominously, the Fed is trapped and unable to rescue the market. It's a variation of the theme I talked about recently in a speech I gave in New York (posted on my subscription site, fleckensteincapital.com) -- that the next time we see a downturn in the economy or the stock market, folks will realize that the Fed can't save them. If folks realize that the Fed can't save the day, that the stock market and economy are "on their own," and potentially heading south, that could easily foment panic.

The other potential catalyst now, as in 1987: The dollar is (potentially) coming unstuck, and foreigners could pressure the dollar, or, in other ways, get folks so sensitized to the macro problems that exist that they'd want to sell stocks, at roughly the same time. Most people do not realize that the decline in the dollar over the last two years has been bigger than the drop leading up to Oct. 19, 1987.

My gut feeling -- though there is no way for me to quantify it -- is that probability of a crash at some point in the next six months to a year is far higher now than in 1987. One subjective reason is that I just don't think it's possible for all the thousands of hedge funds and hundreds of thousands or millions of people who think they're talented enough to outwit the stock market -- and who believe they can play this game of speculating in an overvalued, dangerous stock market -- to get out whole.

more...

[UpInArms]

21. 10:24 EST UPdate (what me worry?)

Dow 10,228.64 -18.95 (-0.18%)
Nasdaq 1,922.63 -9.03 (-0.47%)
S&P 500 1,113.56 -1.58 (-0.14%)
10-Yr Bond 4.489% +0.010

10:00AM: Equities lift off their opening losses, but continue to sport a bearish tone... Decliners are leading advancers by a 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE, and a nearly 4-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq... Intel's (INTC 23.98 - 2.16) disappointing Q2 (June) report (and its three downgrades - See Briefing.com's Upgrades/Downgrades page for more information) has been the main driver this morning, but other news reports have also played into the downward action...

June Retail Sales dropped 1.1% (consensus -0.7%), or -0.2% ex-auto (consensus of +0.2%) and Asia (Tokyo's Nikkei -2.2%) and Europe (Germany's DAX -0.8%) have been battered by Intel's guidance... The latter is particularly noteworthy as European chipmaker ASML Holdings (ASML 15.55 -0.40) turned in a better than expected Q2 (June) report...NYSE Adv/Dec 745/1780, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 585/1789

and minutes later at 10:27

Dow 10,240.14 -7.45 (-0.07%)
Nasdaq 1,924.53 -7.13 (-0.37%)
S&P 500 1,114.40 -0.74 (-0.07%)
10-Yr Bond 4.485% +0.006

losses almost erased :shrug:

[54anickel]

23. A Deeper Look At The Markets (tinfoil time?)

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/tacinv071204.html

It appears that while the indexes are holding up well, the rest of the market has corrected very severely. This neat little trick provides the necessary ingredients to maintain the illusion that everything appears to be fine on the surface. The key words being on the surface, a deeper look reveals some interesting facts.

snip>

In terms of sector strength the Dow 30 have a score of only 11 and yet they have corrected so very little when compared too much stronger sectors that have scores in excess of 70. If you ever wanted evidence of manipulation you can clearly see it here. We stated sometime last year that the easiest way to make it look like the markets were healthy was to keep the Dow up. In order to do this, one only has to push 15-17 of the Dow components up, while allowing the other 12-15 to slowly correct. Then all you do is prop the ones that were allowed to correct up and allow the others to slowly pull back. This completes the illusion that we are in a healthy bull. By the way this can be repeated over and over again, and so the idea is not to fight it but to be wise and trade in the direction of the trend. Manipulators have and will always be around, trying to get rid of them is the equivalent of trying to get rid of maggots in a rotting body.

When one looks at the Dow it appears that it still has not finished correcting. However when you shift your gaze to most of the other sectors it looks like the correction is almost complete and we should start to rally. So we have a series of conflicting pictures emerging. As we get closer to the final stage it becomes harder and harder to be able to distinguish myth from reality and so we must rely on our indicators rather than our gut feelings.

When one looks closely at the Dow components you see that many of them are at or close to their highs, and almost none seem to be next to their lows. Could it be that the Central bankers are so nefarious and cunning that they allowed the entire market to correct while just holding up the Dow and the main components of the Nasdaq. If this is true then the bears that are waiting for a serious plunge will be caught flatfooted and creamed. The bulls to will be caught off guard as they think the indexes need to correct more and so are mostly standing on the sidelines. Only the quick and the nimble will most likely benefit from shorting this market.

more...

[UpInArms]

24. 10:48 EST and YEEHAW!

Dow 10,264.55 +16.96 (+0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,933.21 +1.55 (+0.08%)
S&P 500 1,117.98 +2.84 (+0.25%)
10-Yr Bond 4.488% +0.009

10:30AM: Indices continue to recover from their drubbing at the open... Pockets of technology (software, networking, internet) have reversed course into the green and contributed to the Nasdaq's approximately 14 point move... Biotech has also been resilient and put together a respectable rally... As for the blue chips, energy, consumer discretionary, industrial, and telecom have shown relative strength and confined the S&P 500's losses to 0.1%... The semiconductor group, however, has barely budged off its lows - and its lack of participation suggests the turnaround effort will meet resistance soon...

SOX -3.5, NYSE Adv/Dec 1198/1545, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 979/1600

[UpInArms]

29. and lookie here at that spike on the dollar chart

at the corresponding moment!

Last trade 87.66 Change -0.16 (-0.18%)

Last tick: 2004-07-14 10:49:36 ET
30-min delayed quote.

[54anickel]

31. WTF is that about?

[UpInArms]

32. imho - BOJ back to old tricks

now that the election is behind it

[54anickel]

34. Ahhh, I was leaning toward intervention of some type - hadn't thought of

our old friends at the BoJ though - they've been sooooo "quiet" lately.

[54anickel]

36. NY gold rebounds as dollar slides with retail sales

Certainly doesn't make sense for it to rise in light of this latest report. Perhaps more short covering again?

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/AFX/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=MTFH65091_2004-07-14_15-21-59_R2W025476

snip>

"There was already firmness in the market overnight that came from expectation of a weaker retail sales, based on corporate earnings," said one gold trader.

But when June sales came in substantially lower than most analysts predicted, the dollar took a decidedly bearish turn, giving gold room to rally, traders said.

snip>

The dollar fell against the euro on Wednesday, after a weaker-than-forecast report on U.S. June retail sales showed the American consumer struggling to deal with the effects of high energy costs. Consumer spending makes up about two thirds of U.S. economic activity.

June sales slid 1.1 percent, well below economists forecasts for an overall decline of 0.6 percent. The unexpected weakness, the lowest reading since February 2003, prompted some analysts to speculate that second half economic growth may be compromised.

One economist noted that the inflation readings in the report, namely higher energy prices, made the implications of soft sales date even worse.

In a separate report that may ease inflation concerns, the Labor Department said prices of goods imported into the U.S. dipped unexpectedly by 0.2 percent in June. Export prices also fell.

One participant said import prices imply that the speed and trajectory of U.S. interest rate increases may be less than had been expected.

A less aggressive Federal Reserve credit tightening cycle would inhibit the dollars ability to rise, opening the way for golds advance.

Dollar weakness encourages overseas investors to buy dollar-denominated assets like gold.

In the background, a car bombing in Baghdad, that killed 11 people and wounded 30 on Wednesday, renewed golds lure as a safe-haven investment. In the first big guerrilla attack since the interim Iraqi government took over from the U.S.-led occupiers on June 28, suspected suicide bombers blew up their car near a main entrance to the heavily defended "Green Zone" compound.

At Tuesdays gold rout, many fund players unloaded recently acquired long positions and got short instead. But some traders said Wednesdays rally may force those players out of their newly gotten short positions.

"There were quite a few people who were trying to knock the market down yesterday who got short. And, those shorts are still in the market and will probably scramble to get out if we move a couple of dollars higher," said one gold trader.

"And it looks like we may be working towards the upside. The dollar may be weakening in the near term so, golds looking higher," he added.

[54anickel]

25. Bulls Losing Grip

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/rostenko071204.html

snip>

That's right. The "experts" are at it again, forecasting great GDP numbers for 2004 even while the man in the street continually sniffs under his armpits seeking the noticeably absent aroma of good hard day's work. How can this be so? Are the numbers being falsified?

I wouldn't go that far (not publicly anyway) but the way the numbers are (mis)calculated helps to answer the question. As Craig Harris if www.harriscapitalmanagement.com has discussed, the GDP calculation uses the inflation data to arrive at its conclusions. When the inflation data is sorely understated guess what happens to the GDP number? That's right: it ends up overstated. Voila! Another official figure that has to be taken with a large grain of salt.

How does one make sense of it all when so much of the data is laden with flaws and statistical massagery? You don't. The market will tell you all you need to know. Do we need to analyze the data to figure out how strong or weak it is? No, just look at the market which hasn't made a new high since March, even while the data was coming out better than ever.

Now we find ourselves back in the quarterly ritual of examining earnings data to figure out where things are headed. Do we even need to look at the data? Why bother? Take a look at the market: No new highs, progressively lower highs and lower lows on the three major indices. The numbers coming out this week and next have already been forecast and they don't look good. If they were going to be good, the S&P 500 wouldn't be trading at the same level it was four months ago.

But as I've been saying for quite a while now, don't assume that bad numbers will rejuvenate the long-term bear market right away. We're only a few months away from the election and Uncle Al, aggressive inflation fighter that he is, is obviously playing ball, evidenced by a silly token 25 bp rate cut. If there's a way to keep the market "stable" (read: "keep it from falling"), the fine folks at the Fed will find it.

In the meantime, folks at the White House are already in the process of "securing" the election by examining ways to avoid one entirely. (www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5411741/site/newsweek/) With that kind of gumption and creativity, how hard can it be to keep stocks propped up a few more months?

more...

[jmcgowanjm]

26. How can Intel be down 8.5% and the Nasdaq be unchanged?

Is Intel no longer a bellweather?
Since when.. last night?

[UpInArms]

28. Intel as "bellweather"?

that's so 9/10

[54anickel]

30. (Short covering?) Bottom Feeders Move In, Stocks Up

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/040714/markets_stocks_7.html

"The news from Intel was anticipated and what we are seeing now is a widespread short-covering rally after the fact," said Harry Michas, stock index futures trader at manmarketmonitor.com.

[jmcgowanjm]

44. The news from Intel was anticipated-a lie

I was watching INTC on CNBC at 3:15C when INTC
was trading .30 above it's close.

I come back at 4:30, it's trading lower by 1.30
and CNBC is talking about anything but INTC.

From then on I watched, looked for INTC news..
nothing.

This AM Wed I'm seeing INTC down by 1.75
and Nasdq down 17.

8:35 Nasdaq down 22, INTC accelerating past 2.00.

I heard one time about erroneous sell trade canceled.
CNBC. Nasdaq comes back to even.

IMHO-you will never see a more manipulated market
than today.

[UpInArms]

27. New Issue-Fannie Mae sells $11 billion in bills

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5668723

WHITE PLAINS, N.Y., July 14 (Reuters) - Fannie Mae (FNM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Wednesday it sold $7.0 billion of three-month benchmark bills due Oct. 13, 2004 at a stop-out rate, or lowest accepted rate, of 1.480 percent, $3.0 billion of six-month benchmark bills due Jan. 12, 2005 at a stop-out rate of 1.750 percent and $1.0 billion of one-year bills due June 24, 2005 at a stop-out rate of 2.105 percent.

The three-month bills were priced at 99.626 and have a money market yield of 1.486 percent, the six-month bills were priced at 99.115 and have a money market yield of 1.766 percent and the one- year bills were priced at 97.983 and have a money market yield of 2.148 percent.

Settlement is July 14-15.

...very short newsblurb...

[54anickel]

33. Taylor On The Markets & Gold

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/taylor071204.html

snip>

What I think is hugely revealing is that despite the enormous amount of money created out of thin air by the Greenspan Fed and the Federal Reserve Banking system, and despite the biggest fiscal stimulus since World War II, and despite foreign capital continuing to pour into the U.S.-which has served to keep interest rates artificially low-the equity markets have failed to do better than they have done, as pictured in the charts above.

But this in fact was exactly what Ian Gordon predicted when I interviewed him in 1999 and again in 2000. He always maintained that the market top was reached in March of 2000 and that no matter how much Mr. Greenspan and his Fed attempted to inflate the economy, they would never be able to drive stock prices to new highs during this Kondratieff cycle. There is simply too much debt that acts as a drag against rising prices. And so the stock market is doomed until the Kondratieff winter wipes the balance-sheet slate clean. That will be a very, very painful experience, but as is true with hurricanes, tidal waves, earthquakes, or any force of nature, ultimately, market forces cannot be denied. Our policy makers can deceive us, if we let them, but ultimately they cannot deceive Mother Nature.

And so now there are growing signs that the Dow, which is the most easily manipulated market and the one containing America's strongest and most financially stable companies, is getting ready to resume its return back to what we believe is a long, long-term secular bear market in stocks.

What are some of the reasons equities led by the Dow are looking extremely vulnerable at the moment? To start with, look at the declining tops in the shorter-term chart of the Dow. Note that the bear market rally, which peaked in February of this year, now seems to have topped out. We see a pattern of lower highs and lower lows very much in place. This is always a bearish pattern. But Richard Russell, who I think is the best overall market analyst in the world, noted in his June 9 "Richard's Remarks," the following negative signs for stocks, all of which suggest the bear is beginning to emerge from his hibernation that began in 2003.

more...

[UpInArms]

35. 11:38 EST Update and WOWIE ZOWIE!

Dow 10,283.87 +36.28 (+0.35%)
Nasdaq 1,937.50 +5.84 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1,119.30 +4.16 (+0.37%)
10-Yr Bond 4.493% +0.014

11:30AM: The market's rapid advance pauses after re-claiming all of its losses from the early morning selling drive... Some technical resistance has come into play, with the S&P 500 stuck just below its 50-day simple moving average at 1118... A sluggish semiconductor sector continues to weigh on the proceedings... Still, the indices have managed to put together an impressive rally despite a 'sell on the news' response to Intel's (INTC 23.90 -2.24) comments at the open...

An encouraging Q2 (June) earnings report from Bank of America (BAC 85.15 +0.02) and an upside Q2 (June) guidance from McDonald's (MCD 27.72 +1.02) have helped the blue chips immensely...NYSE Adv/Dec 1671/1272, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1422/1338

[54anickel]

37. Gold prices to reach $420 per oz during late September (Merrill Lynch)

How do they know? These speculations of exact prices always crack me up.

http://www.newratings.com/new2/beta/article_444177.html

NEW YORK, July 14 (New Ratings) - Analysts at Merrill Lynch say that gold prices would reach $420 per oz during late September this year and $390-$450 per oz during 2H04.

In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that gold prices rebounded during the past few days, following the intra-week volatility witnessed last week. Gold prices are being boosted by the weakness in the US dollar and the Russian central bank's reduced reserve requirements, the analysts say. The expected increase in the weakness of the US dollar against the euro would support gold prices throughout the current year, Merrill Lynch believes.

[54anickel]

38. 6 million may still lose OT pay: study

Notice they had to stress several times that the EPI gets funding some from labor groups (sheesh, along with a lot of other funding) :eyes:

http://money.cnn.com/2004/07/14/news/economy/overtime/

The Bush Administration issued proposed changes to overtime rules last year, but then revised them in March after criticism from some labor groups.

The original proposal would have stripped overtime protection for 8 million workers, according to the Economic Policy Institute (EPI), which studies issues affecting middle- and lower-income workers and receives funding from some labor groups.

But the revisions would still strip OT pay for about 6 million workers, EPI said in a study released Tuesday.

Under current rules, three tests determine whether a worker is eligible for overtime pay.

more...

Senate Snubs Bush On Overtime Pay

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/07/14/politics/main629629.shtml

(AP) Labor Secretary Elaine Chao is standing by her agency's proposed new overtime regulations despite a 52-47 Senate vote that signaled dissatisfaction with the Bush administration's work on the subject and underscored the election-year importance of pocketbook issues.

"We will continue to expose the misinformation campaign against the rules and strengthen overtime rights for workers" when the issue reaches the House, Chao said Tuesday.

Her statement was issued after the Republican-controlled Senate voted to demand that any new rules guarantee continued eligibility for overtime pay to any worker who currently qualifies.

Democrats challenged Chao and other Republicans to continue the fight.

"Every member of the House has to stand for election this year," said Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, chief architect of the proposal that cleared the Senate.

"The administration just doesn't get it," added Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, D-Mass. "But the Senate got it today and we hope the House will get it as well."

more...

Harkin says 6 million to lose overtime pay

http://www.siouxcityjournal.com/articles/2004/07/14/news/breaking_news/08d18c5b0d478f3486256ed1004b1003.txt

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) -- At least 6 million American workers will lose their right to overtime pay when the Department of Labor overtime eligibility regulations take effect, Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa, said Wednesday.

"If at first you don't succeed in eliminating overtime pay for American workers, try, try again -- and spin like crazy," Harkin said. "Despite the rosy portrait painted by the Bush Administration, millions of American workers will lose their right to overtime pay."

Harkin said the Economic Policy Institute released this new figure after a detailed analysis of the new overtime regulations.

"This report reveals that DOL's final overtime regulation is anything but a family friendly proposal," Harkin said.

more...

[54anickel]

39. 12:12 lunchtime update, then I've gotta run

Dow 10,273.54 +25.95 (+0.25%)
Nasdaq 1,932.60 +0.94 (+0.05%)
S&P 500 1,118.25 +3.11 (+0.28%)
10-yr Bond 4.490% +0.011
30-yr Bond 5.223% -0.001

NYSE Volume 646,536,000
Nasdaq Volume 1,014,747,000

12:00PM : A volatile morning for stocks as the market started weak, but then staged a reversal good enough for modest gains ... The source of the initial pullback was a large drop in overseas markets and a disappointing Q2 (June) report from Intel (INTC 23.90 -2.24)... Inventories ballooned to their highest levels in nearly 10 years, and management indicated on its conference call that gross margins had peaked... This sent the semiconductor shares immediately lower at the start of trading - where they have remained for most of the day...
A fall in June retail sales (to -1.1% versus the consensus of -0.7%) also contributed to the negative bias... Such selling efforts, however, did not last long as the indices began recovering their losses within the first 30 minutes of trading... A strong showing in the blue chips - where material, health care, industrial, financial, and restaurant tacked up respectable gains - helped spearhead the turnaround... Financial and restaurant, specifically, were aided by a solid Q2 (June) report from Bank of America (BAC 85.14 +0.01) and raised Q2 (June) numbers by McDonald's (MCD 27.76 +1.08)...

Recognition that Intel's uninspiring update may be the product of company-specific problems - and not industry-wide problems - has also spurred the rally on... Finally, the S&P 500's recent clearing of its 50-day moving average at 1118 has improved the technical outlook...SOX -3.6, NYSE Adv/Dec 1849/1175, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1522/1297

11:30AM : The market's rapid advance pauses after re-claiming all of its losses from the early morning selling drive... Some technical resistance has come into play, with the S&P 500 stuck just below its 50-day simple moving average at 1118... A sluggish semiconductor sector continues to weigh on the proceedings... Still, the indices have managed to put together an impressive rally despite a 'sell on the news' response to Intel's (INTC 23.90 -2.24) comments at the open...

An encouraging Q2 (June) earnings report from Bank of America (BAC 85.15 +0.02) and upside Q2 (June) guidance from McDonald's (MCD 27.72 +1.02) have helped the blue chips immensely...NYSE Adv/Dec 1671/1272, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1422/1338


Advances & Declines
NYSE Nasdaq
Advances 1828 (56%) 1497 (49%)
Declines 1204 (37%) 1343 (44%)
Unchanged 194 (6%) 157 (5%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

Up Vol* 357 (59%) 448 (46%)
Down Vol* 227 (37%) 510 (52%)
Unch. Vol* 14 (2%) 8 (0%)

----------------------------------------------------------------------

New Hi's 74 14
New Lo's 29 94

[ozymandius]

40. Hi folks! Here's some numbers and blather for you.

2:00
Dow 10,241.10 -6.49 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,925.33 -6.33 (-0.33%)
S&P 500 1,115.28 +0.14 (+0.01%)
10-Yr Bond 4.482% +0.003

U.S. stocks turn lower as oil spikes

NEW YORK (CBS.MS) -- U.S. stocks returned to losses in afternoon trade Wednesday as increased terrorism concerns and disappointment over Intel's margin outlook outweighed a bullish forecast from fast-food giant McDonald's.

A Time Magazine report that the Federal Bureau of Investigation sent a classified intelligence bulletin to local law enforcement agencies last week warning of a potential terrorist threat to the U.S. energy infrastructure helped trigger the slide in stock, and a spike in oil prices.

story

[hansolsen]

41. I seek buying opportunity in Whitewash stocks

Having read the Senate Intell Comm report and the latest Hutton and now Butler reports from Great Britain, I assume sales of whitewash must be at worldwide record levels.


Surely the inventories are exhausted, the stocks are low, the shelves are empty. The whitewash factory must be expanding, building more loading docks and hiring, And up on the top floor in the corner office, the floor is littered with empty champaigne bottles, and the tipsy lords of commerce, all ruddy and self satisfied, chase the secretaries around the desk demanding a cheap feel in celebration of their great victory.

So today, if there is a bull run, let's call it the Whitewash bull, shall we.

[Maeve]

42. Closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,208.80 -38.79 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq 1,914.88 -16.78 (-0.87%)
S&P 500 1,111.47 -3.67 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond 4.484% +0.005

Close: It was an erratic day of trading for the major indices - first down, then up, and finally down again - as Intel's (INTC 23.38 -2.76) lackluster Q2 (June) report and outlook hung over the market the entire time... Semiconductor tumbled immediately (finishing near 9 month lows) and its constant weakness acted as a drag on the action... Intel came in shy of the top-line revenue estimate (of $8.11 bln) as inventories ballooned to 90 days - almost 50% above the average of 63 days...
Management went on to say on its conference call that margins had peaked (for the short-term) and reduced its FY04 (Dec) gross margin forecast... Worries that Intel would reduce its 2H04 capex budget to offset the product shift hit the chipmakers, and other tech sub-sectors as well... The blue chips, comparatively speaking, turned in a much better performance thanks to continued strength in energy, utilities, and materials... Restaurant also did very well thanks to upside guidance from both McDonald's (MCD 27.79 +1.11) and Yum! Brands (YUM 37.95 +1.04)...

Brokerage and retail, however, were two areas that lagged behind the other blue chips - as Bank of America (BAC 84.30 -0.83) missed the Q2 (June) revenue estimate of $13.31 bln, and June Retail Sales dropped by 1.1% (consensus of -0.7%)... Tonight and tomorrow morning, there will be another round of technology earnings reports from notables like Advanced Micro (AMD 13.74 -0.76), Apple Computer (AAPL 29.58 +0.36), Nokia (NOK 14.24 -0.07), and QLogic (QLGC 24.50 -0.65)...

[Tom Yossarian Joad]

43. CORRECTED - UPDATE 1-AMD sales up 96 percent, returns to profit

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5438487

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Chip maker Advanced Micro Devices Inc. <AMD.N> on Wednesday reported a quarterly profit after a loss a year earlier, amid healthier demand for personal computers and cellular phones.

In its second quarter, the Sunnyvale, California-based company reported a profit of $32 million, or 9 cents a share, compared to a year-earlier loss of $140 million, or 40 cents a share.

Second-quarter sales rose 96 percent from the last second quarter to $1.26 billion. Wall Street had been expecting a second-quarter profit of 9 cents on revenue of $1.24 billion, according to a survey of analysts by Reuters Estimates.

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