U.S. retail sales fell 1.1% in June-Worst in 14 months/worst than expected

[papau]

U.S. retail sales fell 1.1% in June.

http://www.census.gov/svsd/www/retail.html

ADVANCE MONTHLY SALES FOR RETAIL TRADE AND FOOD SERVICES

JUNE 2004
The Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $331.9 billion, a decrease of 1.1 percent (±0.8%) from the previous month, but up 6.3 percent (±1.0%) from June 2003. Total sales for the April through June 2004 period were up 7.7 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The April to May 2004 percent change was revised from +1.2 percent (±0.8%) to +1.4 percent (±0.2%).

Retail trade sales were down 1.2 percent (±0.8%) from May 2004, but were 6.3 percent (±1.2%) above last year. Gasoline station sales were up 21.4 percent (±2.1%) from June 2003 and sales of building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were up 14.3 percent (±2.3%) from last year.

The advance estimates are based on a subsample of the Bureau's full retail and food services sample. A stratified random sampling method is used to select approximately 5,000 retail and food services firms whose sales are then weighted and benchmarked to represent the complete universe of over three million retail and food services firms. Responding firms account for approximately 65% of the MARTS dollar volume estimate. For an explanation of the measures of sampling variability included in this report, please see the Reliability of Estimates section at the end of this page.


Percent Change in Retail and Food Services Sales
(Data adjusted for seasonal, holiday, and trading-day differences, but not for price changes)

[Justice]

1. So Much For Consumer Confidence

I should add on edit that yesterday in reporting Merrill Lynch's numbers for the second quarter - it was reported that although Lynch beat the 2nd quarter numbers in 2003, their numbers fell sharply over the first quarter in 2004. In fact, merger/transaction activity for June was off something like 40%.

[Dirty Hippie]

2. Since the estimate was not adjusted for price changes

does that imply sales would have been down more were it not for inflation?

[papau]

6. Yes

:-(

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

3. The Economy...

And the energy situation(causative factor to a large extent) are both back in play now, for the election.

Anyone who says differently is full of bovine-generated organic effluent.

[InkAddict]

8. BGOE - I like it! n/t

[papau]

4. biggest decline in 16 months (expected only a "horrible" 0.8 decline!)

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid={1E110880-0092-455A-A22F-D87C482B42AE}&siteid=mktw

It was the biggest decline in 16 months. Retail sales fell in two of the three months in the second quarter.

Excluding the 4.3 percent drop in auto sales, retail sales fell 0.2 percent in June, matching April's decline.

Revisions to retail sales in April and May offset each other; April was revised lower by 0.2 percentage point to a 0.8 percent drop, while May was revised higher by 0.2 points to a 1.4 percent gain.

Retail sales were up 6.3 percent year-over-year in June. In May, the year-over-year gain was 8.9 percent.

The economic data for June released so far indicate a slower pace of growth. Payroll growth slowed and hours worked fell. Consumer spending slacked off.

Some economists believe it's just a pause, while others say economic growth has downshifted as external stimulus from tax cuts and low interest rates wanes.<snip>

Restaurant and bar sales sank 0.8 percent.



Rex Nutting is Washington bureau chief of CBS.MarketWatch.com

[Jackpine Radical]

5. A weird thought...

This has been a period of historically high prices for things like gas & food (both somewhat inelastic in terms of demand), forcing people to spend more just to maintain a steady rate of consumption. So unless you're actually measuring fallons of gas or milk rather than expenditures for them, our little "non-inflation" may be quite spuriously making things look better than they are. So, as Bushco is going around touting the "improving economy," are they actually only talking about a side-effect of increasing prices (in a stagnant or declining wage market)?

[papau]

7. Quick answer is YES - A DU explanation at this link

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=103&topic_id=62408&mesg_id=62408

[MallRat]

14. Wow. I hadn't thought of that.

To put it in terms that * could understand, are you saying that Americans aren't really buying more stuff? We're just paying more for the same amount of stuff?

Whoa.

-MR

[Jackpine Radical]

16. Yup. That's exactly what I was trying to say.

However, since I was writing about economic stuff and trying to be taken seriously, I figured I shouldn't put it as clearly as you did.

[dArKeR]

9. U.S. retail sales swooned in June - MSWHORE

America’s shoppers had a tight grip on their pocketbooks and wallets in June, dropping sales at the nation’s retailers by 1.1 percent. It was the largest decline in 16 months.

http://msnbc.msn.com/id/5436114/

[llmart]

10. I'm really confused here....

My media keeps telling me we're going gangbusters here in the ole' US of A. I thought maybe it was just me - that I didn't have much money to spend since * took office. Hmmmm..... Maybe the media has been hyping this so-called recovery? Ya think?

In my opinion, there has been no "recovery". However, I guess if a person was on his deathbed and then opened one eye and blinked once it could also be said that he was "recovering".

[tom_paine]

11. Wow, how bad must it be if Bushevik Phony numbers show THIS

I wonder if these are actually real numbers. Until the age of Nero and Caligula Bush, the truth will occasionally dribble out, IMHO.

[struggle4progress]

12. Wow! The economy keeps sputtering along! eom

[leftchick]

13. "worst in 16 months" from that MSRNC marketwatch....

WH mouthpiece with glasses. He also said the lag in sales was due to the unusually cold weather! They are so patheticly transparent in their efforts to prop up the "Roaring Economy"! :crazy:

[Mari333]

15. If one works 2 six dollar an hr jobs

to feed their family, buy mandatory car insurance, pay their rent or mortgage, pay electric bills, pay gas bills, eat, buy medicine, pay health care costs out of their pocket if they get sick, and they cant find a decent paying job anywhere, plus, they KNOW the gas bills in the winter will just about KILL them soon
thats when they buy NOTHING more.
No one can afford to buy anything, not the majority of the public.
Bush outsourced the decent jobs for all his top 1% wealthy friends.
Now, we are fooked.
Get ready for inflation thats going to hit the roof.
Living in a Depression? You betcha.
Oh by the way..all your tax monies are going to Bush's defense contracter friends and OIL company CEOs.
and of course, his fake war
www.costofwar.com

[quaoar]

17. Bush will solve this problem

As soon as he is re-elected by cutting social services to zero, eliminating Medicaid, slashing education and veterans funding and selling off the national forests.

He will provide at least 500,000 new jobs by starting up the military draft.

And, of course, there will be a new corporate tax cut to stimulate profits, I mean economic growth.