STOCK MARKET WATCH, Thursday 15 July

[ozymandius]

Thursday July 15, 2004

COUNTING THE DAYS
DAYS REMAINING IN THE * REGIME 193
DAYS SINCE DEMOCRACY DIED (12/12/00) 3 YEARS, 216 DAYS
WHERE'S OSAMA BIN-LADEN? 2 YEARS, 270 DAYS
WHERE ARE SADDAM'S WMD? - DAY 483
DAYS SINCE ENRON COLLAPSE = 966
Number of Enron Execs in handcuffs = 19
Recent Acquisitions:Ken Lay
ENRON EXECS CONVICTED = 2
Other Arrests of Execs = 54

---

U.S. FUTURES & MARKETS INDICATORS
NASDAQ FUTURES-----------------------------S&P FUTURES

---

AT THE CLOSING BELL ON July 14, 2004

Dow... 10,208.80 -38.79 (-0.38%)
Nasdaq... 1,914.88 -16.78 (-0.87%)
S&P 500... 1,111.47 -3.67 (-0.33%)
10-Yr Bond... 4.48% +0.01 (+0.11%)
Gold future... 405.60 +3.10 (+0.76%)


|||


GOLD, EURO, YEN and Dollars

---

PIEHOLE ALERT

Heads Up!
Preliminary info on appearances by Bush & Co. throughout the country. Details & links are added as they become available so check back. And if you know more, are organizing something, or would like to, contact [e-mail]

For information on protests and other actions Citizens For Legitimate Government

---

[Maeve]

1. Yesterday's Retail Sales report was disappointing

Let's see how today's reports go....Initial Claims expected to rise from 310K to 335-340K...PPI expected to come in relatively flat (0.0-0.2%, down from 0.8%), Industrial Production to remain stable and Capacity Utilization to remain at the 77.7-77.8% rate (there is still a fair amount of slack in the system)

http://financial.washingtonpost.com/wpost/briefing.asp?mode=MARKCAL&dispnav=business

I've got a gig this morning, so I won't be around much (gotta pay for the bathroom remodeling we have to do next month!)

:donut::donut::donut::donut::donut:

[Maeve]

4. U.S. initial jobless claims bounce back to 349,000

Seasonal layoffs in autos and other manufacturing industries pushed seasonally adjusted U.S. initial jobless claims higher by 40,000 to 349,000 last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Claims had fallen 40,000 to a revised 309,000 the prior week. Initial claims have been at 349,000 for three of the past four weeks. The volatility in the data is the result of the timing of seasonal layoffs for plant retoolings, a Labor Department spokesman explained. The four-week average of initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 3,250 to 339,000. Meanwhile, the number of Americans receiving state benefits rose by 112,000 to 2.97 million in the week ending July 3, a six-week high

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38183.3546527778-815974688&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=&value=&categories=&

[KoKo]

25. "plant retoolings.." Bah Humbug. What do we manufacture in America

that would require layoffs for "plant retoolings."

[Maeve]

33. Cars--planned obsolescence

Every year they have to re-tool for the new models. Otherwise, how would you know your car was out-of-date? :eyes:

[KoKo]

34. ROFL...so true!

[KoKo]

35. Hope our "marketeer's spirits aren't flagging."

:shrug: I know it's hard day after day posting warnings...but we gotta hear 'em.

[UpInArms]

2. daily dollar watch

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_DXY0

Last trade 87.83 Change +0.25 (+0.29%)

http://futures.fxstreet.com/Futures/news/AFX/singleNew.asp?menu=latestnews&pv_noticia=MTFH78433_2004-07-15_11-02-57_N2W321256

Europe gold price eases, watches dollar and data

LONDON, July 15 (Reuters) - Gold eased lower in Europe on Thursday in muted trade ahead of key U.S. data that will signal future dollar direction, traders said.

Spot gold <XAU=> softened to $403.80/404.30 per troy ounce by 1019 GMT, compared with $404.75/405.50 last quoted in New York on Wednesday, when the metal touched a high of nearly $406.

The U.S. producer price report for June is due at 1230 GMT, while consumer price data will be released on Friday. Both figures will provide more clues about the likely direction of U.S. interest rates and so the dollar.

Aggressive rises in U.S. interest rates would tend to boost demand for the dollar -- dulling the attraction of dollar-priced bullion for non-U.S. investors.

"Activity in Europe is quite dull at the minute and will probably stay that way until the figures this afternoon. The market is looking a little bit bearish but support around the $400 area is still pretty firm," one dealer said.

The dollar inched higher against the euro and yen as the market awaited the U.S. data. The U.S. currency slid to within a whisker of four-month lows against the euro on Wednesday, allowing gold to bounce briefly, after retail sales figures showed U.S. consumer spending slowing.

...more...

http://www.fxstreet.com/nou/noticies/afx/noticia.asp?pv_noticia=1089881430-9e32d306-14354

Forex - Dollar pushes higher ahead of US inflation data

LONDON (AFX) - The dollar pushed higher against major currencies ahead of US inflation data as investors begin to shed some of their recent pessimism towards the US economy

Movements were limited, however, on caution ahead of today's US producer price index data, and particularly ahead of tomorrow's CPI inflation figures, which should give the market more hints as to the future direction of US interest rates

"Market optimism over today's June US PPI data is re-emerging," BNP Paribas analysts said

A figure for PPI above 2.0 pct would be needed to fuel expectations of aggressive Fed hikes, and this would need to be corroborated by a US CPI figure of 2 pct tomorrow, they said. Yesterday's disappointing retail sales figures, however, make outperformance in consumer prices unlikely, they added

Meanwhile, sterling weakened against the dollar, largely on profit-taking and concerns over possible overvaluation of the UK currency, analysts said

...more...

Well, it's MaeveDay! Lots of reports due here today:

Jul 15 8:30 AM
Business Inventories May
- 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% -

Jul 15 8:30 AM
Core PPI Jun
- 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% -

Jul 15 8:30 AM
Initial Claims 07/09
- 335K 340K 310K -

Jul 15 8:30 AM
NY Empire State Index Jul
- 28.0 28.0 30.2 -

Jul 15 8:30 AM
PPI Jun
- 0.0% 0.2% 0.8% -

Jul 15 9:15 AM
Capacity Utilization Jun
- 77.7% 77.7% 77.8% -

Jul 15 9:15 AM
Industrial Production Jun
- 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% -

Jul 15 12:00 PM
Philadelphia Fed Jul
- 25.0 25.0 28.9 -

Jul 15 2:00 PM
Treasury Budget Jun
- NA NA $21.2B -

Have a Great Day Marketeers!

[UpInArms]

5. reports are coming in

8:29am 07/15/04

U.S. JUNE PPI FALLS 0.3% VS. EXPECTED 0.2% GAIN

8:29am 07/15/04

U.S. JUNE CORE PPI UP 0.2% AS EXPECTED

8:30am 07/15/04

U.S. JULY EMPIRE STATE INDEX 36.5 VS 29.9 IN JUNE

8:30am 07/15/04

U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 40,000 TO 340,000

8:30am 07/15/04

U.S. 4-WEEK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 3,250 TO 339,000

8:30am 07/15/04

U.S. CONTINUING JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 112,000 TO 2.91MLN

(edited to add the following)

8:30am 07/15/04

U.S. MAY INVENTORIES-TO-SALES RATIO REMAINS AT RECORD L

8:30am 07/15/04

U.S. JUNE CRUDE PPI UP 1.6%, CORE CRUDE DOWN 0.5%

[UpInArms]

6. U.S. initial jobless claims bounce back to 349,000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38183.3546527778-815974688&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Seasonal layoffs in autos and other manufacturing industries pushed seasonally adjusted U.S. initial jobless claims higher by 40,000 to 349,000 last week, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Claims had fallen 40,000 to a revised 309,000 the prior week. Initial claims have been at 349,000 for three of the past four weeks. The volatility in the data is the result of the timing of seasonal layoffs for plant retoolings, a Labor Department spokesman explained. The four-week average of initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 3,250 to 339,000. Meanwhile, the number of Americans receiving state benefits rose by 112,000 to 2.97 million in the week ending July 3, a six-week high.

[UpInArms]

7. U.S. May business inventories rise

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38183.3551736111-815974724&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&property=&value=&categories=&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Total business inventories rose 0.4 percent to a record $1.22 trillion in May, the Commerce Department said Thursday. Total business sales rose 0.7 percent to a record $937.6 billion in the month, while the inventories-to-sales ratio, an indication of demand, remained unchanged at the record low 1.30. The rise in inventories was led by a rise in wholesale inventories, which rose 1.2 percent in the month. Manufacturing inventories rose 0.5 percent in the month, while retail inventories were unchanged from April. Total inventories have risen 4.0 percent since May 2003.

[UpInArms]

9. Producer prices fall 0.3% in June

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B66A0E97F%2DA2EE%2D4DC5%2D909B%2D21EDA6663D68%7D&siteid=mktw

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - U.S. wholesale prices fell 0.3 percent in June as food and energy prices retreated, the Labor Department said Thursday.

It was the largest decline in a year.

Economists had expected a 0.2 percent gain in the producer price index. The core PPI - which excludes food and energy goods -- rose 0.2 percent, as expected.

The PPI had jumped 0.8 percent in May on surging food and energy costs, sparking fears of inflation in the bond market and elsewhere.

The Federal Open Market Committee downplayed the inflation worries in its latest statement, citing "temporary factors" for the recent gains.

The government agency will report on the June consumer price index on Friday. Economists expect tame 0.2 percent increases in both the CPI and the core CPI.

The year-over-year increase in the PPI fell back to 4 percent in June from a 13-year high of 5 percent in May. The PPI increased at a 5 percent annual rate in the second quarter.

...more...

[ozymandius]

3. WrapUp by Mike Hartman

U.S. STOCKS, TREASURIES, AND THE DOLLAR DOWN TODAY

The tone for the markets today was set with the disappointing news from Intel after the bell yesterday, more warnings from companies that don’t expect to meet their earnings expectations and the retail sales report for June showing a larger drop than expected. Intel reported a build of excess inventory and said their future gross margins will decline. Linens-N-Things announced yesterday that it is revising its guidance for earnings per share for the second quarter from $0.08 or $0.09 per share to $0.01 or $0.02 per share. Mr. Axelrod, the companies’ CEO attributed the poor results to “A decline in guest traffic.” Their reduced guidance is consistent with the report from the Commerce Department today showing a decline in retail sales of 1.1%, while expectations called for a decline of 0.8%. The big culprit was auto sales which were forecast to grow by 0.2%, but instead fell by 0.2%. The consumer is the driving force behind our economy and as a whole we are not in the “shop ‘till ya’ drop mode.” The consumer is pulling back without the stimulus from cash-out refinancing and tax rebates. I have to believe that many of the new cars purchased over the last year or two can be attributed to consumers extracting equity form their homes via refinancing.

-cut-

My mind wanders to consider whether or not the Fed is quietly buying the longer dated maturities off the market…that thought goes all the way back to when Mr. Bernanke said the Federal Reserve would use “unconventional means” if necessary to support the markets. If they are actively monetizing the long bond (using newly created money to buy the debt) it will be highly inflationary. When long-term rates do spike higher, it could surely be the catalyst that pops the housing bubble. Richard Russell was “straight-up” in his commentary yesterday when he said, “Speculation has merely transferred from stocks to real estate. So far, nothing has been corrected.”

When he says “nothing has been corrected,” I believe Mr. Russell is referring to the excesses and the mis-allocation of capital due to excessive money creation over the last decade or so. Billions upon billions of dollars were invested in dot-coms and a huge overinvestment in technology as a whole. The growing global economy is hungry for more energy products, but there has been little investment. Our population has grown, but our oil refining capacity has not. Mr. Greenspan warned us a year ago that there has not been enough money invested in the development of infrastructure for natural gas. Copper prices have been on the move higher again hitting a five-week high because of inventory concerns. The world is using copper supplies faster than we can extract the metal from the earth. Over the last decade the money was flowing into stocks and bonds and very little was invested in infrastructure to harvest commodities. We are now paying the price of the speculative excesses and mis-allocation of resources during the Nineties.

Correct the Twin Deficits

The single most predictable thing I see in the financial markets is the continued fall of the dollar. Normally after a 20-year expansion in stock and bond prices, we should see deflationary forces at work to purge the excesses that were created during the long expansion. It appears the Fed will fight tooth and nail to inflate our way through the deflationary forces. Alan Greenspan identified the concern over deflation in 2002 and 2003, and began pumping the money supply accordingly. Remember that inflation and currency debasement (devaluation) is basically the same thing, just worded differently.

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[ozymandius]

8. Good morning Marketeers.

:donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut: :donut:

I have felt somewhat a stranger to the SMW thread. Our lives have become somewhat complicated as we are looking toward a move in two weeks. My job search continues - with the news that I did not get one job that looked so hopeful at the High Museum of Art. There are other irons in the fire.

I will be around as possible. Thanks to everyone who keeps the thread moving.

Ozy :hi:

[ze_dscherman]

10. There Maybe More Gold in Ringgits Than Dollars

Hi everyone! :hi:

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - They are the new heretics. In a region whose lifeblood is exports, a number of politicians and officials is starting to challenge the Asian orthodoxy that cheap currencies like Malaysia's ringgit are good and strong currencies are bad.

They may be still voices in the wilderness, but dollar bulls had better listen in case their whisper becomes a roar: any sign that Asia is favoring domestic-driven growth by letting exchange rates firm could hasten the unwinding of the U.S. current account deficit with potentially dire consequences for the dollar.

The sustainability of the hitherto happy symbiosis whereby Asia ships its savings to cash-strapped U.S. consumers so they can buy boatloads of exports is sure to be on the agenda when a gaggle of European central bankers meet their Asian counterparts for long-scheduled talks in Singapore on Thursday and Friday.

SNIP

Almost as staggering as the build-up has been the virtual absence of public debate on the drawbacks of such a policy. For economists say an artificially weak currency is tantamount to a subsidy for exporters, a tax on importers and a brake on growth in purchasing power that economic development is all about.

More: http://news.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=reutersEdge&storyID=5669019

[UpInArms]

11. has anyone looked at the price per barrel of oil lately?

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYMEX_CLU4

Last trade 41.15

[jmcgowanjm]

21. Me, Me, I have

As the easy stuff is used up, we arrive at the point where
we must finally expend a whole barrel of oil to produce a barrel
of oil. Approaching this point, rising oil prices simply express
the diminishing proportion of "spare" energy left over
for distribution.

Once the nett energy return is zero, it's over.... no matter
how much oil is tantalizingly "still down there."

http://www.energybulletin.net/newswire.php?id=1055

Peakoil demands a complimentary Political
Exercise, such as Nixon off the gold standard
or the end of USSR or a Coup in the US.

http://globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO407B.html

[KoKo]

27. Your first link ...I love "keeping your eye on the donut and not the hole!

As you ramble on through life, brother,
Whatever be your goal,
Keep your eye upon the Donut,
And not upon the Hole. :D


Amd:
Easy oil delivers such a wealth of nett (excess) energy and goods, that we are free to indulge in all sorts of charades in order to satisfy our personal ambitions. Cheap transport has permitted us to bury local food production under a sea of suburbs. Our agricultural system is totally dependent upon oil and natural gas, not only for mechanization but also for fertilizer and the pesticides so necessary for large-scale monoculture.

Want a liter of milk? No problem. Just jump in the old jalopy and potter on down to the local for a carton of nature's finest.

How far away is the shop? ... Does it matter?

How did the milk get there? ... Who cares! That's what we pay the Captains of Industry for. It's their problem, not ours.

A good read, that article... Now onto the second one.

[jmcgowanjm]

36. You are a Friend, KoKo01

I look forward to more w/ you
James

[KoKo]

37. Well, many thanks to you for that... The Marketeer's are my favorite

folks here. The DU "unsung hero's." But, so much information....it one is looking ahead...:hi:

[jmcgowanjm]

38. Unsung Hero-I love the sound of that

Big Bad Stuff is about to come down.

I'm tryin' to be Zen about it.

And I could be wrong. I'm Optimistic!

James

[UpInArms]

12. U.S. industrial output falls in June

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/newsfinder/pulseone.asp?dateid=38183.3858333333-815975950&siteID=mktw&scid=0&doctype=806&

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities fell in June and the breakneck gains in May were revised slightly downward, the Federal Reserve said Thursday. Industrial output fell 0.3 percent in June to 116.2 on the Fed's index, falling back below the pre-recession peak of 116.4 recorded in June, 2000. Capacity utilization fell to 77.2 percent in June from a revised 77.6 percent in May. Economists had been expecting industrial production to remain unchanged and capacity utilization to increase to 77.7 percent, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. Industrial output in May was revised to a 0.9 percent gain after an initial estimate of a 1.1 percent rise.

[UpInArms]

13. pre-opening blather

briefing.com

9:17AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +2.8. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.5. Futures indications give back some of their gains ahead of the 9:15 ET release of the disappointing Capacity Utilization and Industrial Production reports... Despite this, the cash market is still poised for a higher open in a rebound effort off of yesterday's losses.

8:38AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +3.1. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.0. Futures market gets a bit of a boost following the round of data at 08:30 ET (Business Inventories, PPI, NY Empire State Index, and Initial Claims)... The important PPI report was neither too hot nor too cold as total PPI fell 0.3% while core-PPI was +0.2% and in line with the consensus estimate... readings helping to quell inflation concerns, resulting in a modestly bullish bias

8:22AM: S&P futures vs fair value: -0.7. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.0. Little enthusiasm in the futures markets as traders show some reserve ahead of a slew of economic data (Business Inventories, PPI, NY Empire State Index, Initial Claims, Industrial Production, and Capacity Utilization) that will be out before the open

8:04AM: S&P futures vs fair value: +0.5. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.5. Futures market in non-committal mode as current indications suggest a relatively flat open for the cash market... Nokia guiding Q3 below consensus and yesterday's afternoon sell-off are driving bearish attitudes, whereas, encouraging earnings news from SanDisk (SNDK), Oracle (ORCL) and Citigroup (C) are providing favor for the bulls

ino.com

The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight and is challenging the 75% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1414.51. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this week's decline, May's low crossing at 1376.50 is the next downside target. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 1.00 pt. at 1418 as of 6:53 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening by the NASDAQ composite index later this morning.

The September S&P 500 index was slightly lower overnight as it consolidates below the 50% retracement level of the May-June rally crossing at 1112.70. If September extends last week's decline, the 62% retracement level crossing at 1104.86 is the next downside target. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1115.54 are needed to temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market. The September S&P 500 Index was down 0.80 pts. at 1110.50 as of 6:54 AM ET. Overnight action sets the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning.

[UpInArms]

14. market is open at 9:32

Dow 10,220.23 +11.43 (+0.11%)
Nasdaq 1,920.66 +5.78 (+0.30%)
S&P 500 1,112.62 +1.15 (+0.10%)
10-Yr Bond 4.496% +0.012

[UpInArms]

15. 10:09 EST Update and blather

Dow 10,202.75 -6.05 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,914.26 -0.62 (-0.03%)
S&P 500 1,111.06 -0.41 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.486% +0.002

10:00AM: Market shows no early followthrough...oil prices, which jumped yesterday and hurt the market, are down some this morning but not having much impact...concerns about earnings warnings continue to hang over the market, particularly for the technology sector...NYSE Adv/Dec 1270/957, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1314/862

9:45AM: Market opens modestly higher, helped by generally positive earnings news and economic data...the decline of 0.3% in PPI, with the core rate rising a moderate 0.2%, was probably the most beneficial to the financial markets...the 0.3% decline in industrial production was a disappointment, but will probably prove aberrant...Wachovia and Citigroup posted good earnings, while a Nokia hasn't helped...

[UpInArms]

16. Political divisions on SEC

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2004/07/15/BUGQM7LI8Q1.DTL&type=business

For the second time in a month, Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman William Donaldson on Wednesday voted with the two Democratic commissioners on a controversial issue instead of siding with his two fellow Republicans.

<snip>

It's just that the other two Republican commissioners -- lawyer Paul Atkins and economist Cynthia Glassman -- are so far to the right, at least when it comes to market regulation, that a moderate Republican like Donaldson has more in common with the two Democrats.

<snip>

The proposed rule would let the SEC collect and distribute basic information about hedge funds, such as how many there are and how much they manage.

It would prevent felons from running hedge funds and would let the SEC "examine hedge-fund advisers to identify compliance problems early and deter questionable practices," the SEC said in a news release.

<snip>

Last month, the commission voted 3-2 to adopt a rule that will require the boards that oversee mutual funds on behalf of shareholders to have a chairman who is not affiliated with the company that manages the fund.

Today, the vast majority of fund boards are headed by the chairman or CEO of the fund management company, posing potential conflicts of interest.

...more...

Why would the SEC be "political"? Isn't this Commission supposed to make our markets accountable and transparent?

[UpInArms]

17. an answer to that question in this article

http://www.reuters.com/financeNewsArticle.jhtml?type=bondsNews&storyID=5680963

US senator "concerned" about SEC's hedge fund push

WASHINGTON, July 15 (Reuters) - The chairman of the Senate committee (Richard Shelby - R-Ala) that oversees the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission said on Thursday he is "concerned" about the agency's approach to regulating hedge funds.

The SEC voted 3-2 on Wednesday to propose hedge fund advisers register with the SEC, a proposal opposed by the $850 billion hedge fund industry but supported strongly by SEC Chairman William Donaldson.

...more...

[UpInArms]

18. U.S. industrial output falls in June - Falls back below pre-recession peak

of June 2000

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BE96C3461-F668-4361-89FA-82E0F8D35FC8%7D&siteid=google&dist=google

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Output of the nation's factories, mines and utilities fell in June and the breakneck gains in May were revised slightly downward, the Federal Reserve said Thursday.

Industrial output fell 0.3 percent in June to 116.2 on the Fed's index, falling back below the pre-recession peak of 116.4 recorded in June, 2000. Capacity utilization fell to 77.2 percent in June from a revised 77.6 percent in May. Read the full report.

Economists had been expecting industrial production to remain unchanged and capacity utilization to increase to 77.7 percent, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch.

"Despite the small decline in manufactured output in June, the second quarter experienced robust output growth," said John Ryding, economist at Bear Stearns in New York.

Industrial output in May was revised to a 0.9 percent gain after an initial estimate of a 1.1 percent rise.

Manufacturing output fell 0.1 percent in June after rising 0.6 percent rise in May. Output at the nation's utilities fell 2.3 percent in June after jumping 3.7 percent in May.

...more...

[UpInArms]

19. United Airlines delays pension plan payments

http://pacific.bizjournals.com/pacific/stories/2004/07/12/daily35.html

UAL Corp. says it will not make $72.4 million in payments to United Airlines pension plans that are due Thursday.

The number two U.S. airline said in a regulatory filing Wednesday that putting off the payment allows the bankrupt company to "preserve its options" while it looks for the loans to finance continued operations.

The Air Transportation Stabilization Board refused three times to back up such borrowing with a federal guarantee. Now UAL faces higher interest payments and more strings attached as it raises the $1.8 billion it says it needs for emerge from receivership.

Because United is scheduled to pay well over $4 billion to pension plans in the next few years, airline industry and banking industry experts have been saying for months that lenders will likely require United to gut its pension programs as a condition of getting loans.

...more...

[TrogL]

20. Loonie watch (CAN)

http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/graph30.html
http://www.x-rates.com/d/USD/CAD/data30.html

2004-06-14 Monday, June 14 0.730887 USD
2004-06-15 Tuesday, June 15 0.72998 USD
2004-06-16 Wednesday, June 16 0.726111 USD
2004-06-17 Thursday, June 17 0.727167 USD
2004-06-18 Friday, June 18 0.732869 USD
2004-06-21 Monday, June 21 0.733138 USD
2004-06-22 Tuesday, June 22 0.735727 USD
2004-06-23 Wednesday, June 23 0.734538 USD
2004-06-24 Thursday, June 24 0.744602 USD
2004-06-25 Friday, June 25 0.741345 USD
2004-06-28 Monday, June 28 0.744325 USD
2004-06-29 Tuesday, June 29 0.742666 USD
2004-06-30 Wednesday, June 30 0.745879 USD
2004-07-01 Thursday, July 1 0.750469 USD
2004-07-02 Friday, July 2 0.754489 USD
2004-07-06 Tuesday, July 6 0.754091 USD
2004-07-07 Wednesday, July 7 0.757805 USD
2004-07-08 Thursday, July 8 0.759648 USD
2004-07-09 Friday, July 9 0.757174 USD
2004-07-12 Monday, July 12 0.758265 USD
2004-07-13 Tuesday, July 13 0.754205 USD
2004-07-14 Wednesday, July 14 0.756144 USD

http://www.dailyfx.com/currency_cad_thomson.html

USD/CAD has been notable for its lack of logic over the last two trading sessions. Yesterday's slide from 1.33 to 1.3160 was unforeseen given news of divergent trade data between the US and Canada and word that the Canadian FinMin would be sacked. Today the buck bounced despite a pop in oil and in gold and a slide in US retail sales retracing half of yesterday's loss.

Repeated attempts to overcome yesterday's 1.3160 low failed, sparking a push through 1.3215 stops on the way to 1.3230.

Bear in mind that Canada's current Prime Minister used to be the finance minister so canning his postdecessor is significant. Thing is, though, I don't know why. The loonie is rising faster than the greenback is falling AFAIK and the balance of trade numbers are duckie indeed.

[UpInArms]

22. 11:10 Update and blather

Dow 10,202.24 -6.56 (-0.06%)
Nasdaq 1,915.66 +0.78 (+0.04%)
S&P 500 1,110.45 -1.02 (-0.09%)
10-Yr Bond 4.484% +0.000

11:00AM: Indices remain stuck near unchanged amidst low volatility...oil and gold prices are down a bit, bond prices near unchanged...the big report after the close today will be IBM (IBM 84.24 +0.11)...Friday morning has no major earnings reports, but CPI and the Michigan sentiment index will be out...NYSE Adv/Dec 1616/1255, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1397/1220

10:25AM: Sluggish tone persists as indices are unable to hold early gains...the retreat has been orderly, however, as the Nasdaq has bounced off its lows and is back in the plus column...volume picked up yesterday, helped by Intel, which alone traded 78 million shares, but looks light again today...the advance-decline line starts off neutral...NYSE Adv/Dec 1472/1248, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1319/1155

[UpInArms]

23. 12:37 EST Update and blather

Dow 10,205.26 -3.54 (-0.03%)
Nasdaq 1,921.03 +6.15 (+0.32%)
S&P 500 1,111.11 -0.36 (-0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.496% +0.012

12:25PM: Market gets a lift from the July Philadelphia Fed index, which jumped to 36.1 from 28.9 in June...this is a very strong reading, and adds to the evidence from the equally strong July NY Empire State index of 36.5 this morning that industrial production will snap back sharply in June...in light conditions this was enough to get the S&P 500 index to back near unchanged...NYSE Adv/Dec 1682/1354, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1484/ 1326

12:00PM: The stock market has continued to languish this morning, among mixed economic and earnings news...the indices opened a bit higher on the report the June PPI fell 0.3% and the core rate was a tame 0.2%...less encouraging news came from a 0.3% decline in June industrial production, but the July NY Empire State index on manufacturing conditions rose to a very strong 36.5, suggesting improved manufacturing this month...the earnings reports on balance were good, but Citigroup (C 43.81 -1.29) and other banking stocks slid despite good earnings...the bank index is down 1.1%...

an earnings warning from Nokia (NOK 12.31 -1.93) was perhaps the most negative news today, while Apple Computer's (AAPL 32.36 +2.78) strong earnings the best news...oil and gold prices are slightly lower, and the bond market is flat...it is another day of the stock market sagging on light volume while awaiting some encouraging news to generate more buying interest...NYSE Adv/Dec 1625/1391, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1328/1434

11:30AM: The ABC/Money sentiment index, as reported late yesterday, rose for the third straight week to -7 for the week...it is up from -20 a month ago, and slightly above its long- term average of -9 since 1985...improving sentiment was also evident in the June Michigan sentiment index that rose to 95.6 from 90.2 in May...

[UpInArms]

24. 2:12 EST Update and blather

Dow 10,191.55 -17.25 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,918.28 +3.40 (+0.18%)
S&P 500 1,111.08 -0.39 (-0.04%)
10-Yr Bond 4.493% +0.009

1:25PM: Market has been in "rally-mode" since the release of the Philly Fed Index at noon, but even so, the major indices have found it difficult to make much headway beyond the unchanged mark... The trepidation to take the indices markedly higher is nothing unusual for this market of late as concerns about the pace of earnings growth have kept buying enthusiasm in check... The key sources of support for the market today have been the managed care, semiconductor, and oil-related stocks... NYSE Adv/Dec 1960/1165, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1676/1247

12:55PM: Just a few weeks ago, many talking heads on TV were saying that the Fed needed to raise interest rates 50 basis points (1/2%) at the June 30 FOMC policy meeting...now, a couple of soft economic numbers later, the market is not even fully confident that the Fed will go 50 basis points between two meetings...the fed funds futures market now assumes a 76% chance that the Fed will raise rates 25 basis points at the August 10 meeting...this is down from nearly 100% just after the Fed's last move... the SOX semiconductor index (SOX 424.33 +3.65) has inched higher the past few hours...NYSE Adv/Dec 1808/1271, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1536/1339

[JNelson6563]

26. checkin' in with an update

2:51 and everything's kinda flat. One dimensional even. ;-)

Dow 10,207.25 -1.55 (-0.02%)
Nasdaq 1,921.85 +6.97 (+0.36%)
S&P 500 1,111.83 +0.36 (+0.03%)
10-Yr Bond 4.491% +0.007


Hope it's all good with you Marketeers. Ozy, I hope the job quest comes to a successful conclusion very soon dear!

:hi:

Julie

[UpInArms]

28. 3:37 EST Update

Dow 10,191.85 -16.95 (-0.17%)
Nasdaq 1,915.96 +1.08 (+0.06%)
S&P 500 1,109.33 -2.14 (-0.19%)
10-Yr Bond 4.485% +0.001

[UpInArms]

30. 3:50 EST and all red

Dow 10,178.64 -30.16 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq 1,914.47 -0.41 (-0.02%)
S&P 500 1,108.16 -3.31 (-0.30%)
10-Yr Bond 4.485% +0.001

[UpInArms]

29. Oil Slips as OPEC Cancels Meeting

http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=5683415

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices eased on Thursday, after rising to a six-week high above $41 a barrel overnight and OPEC confirmed it would push through a planned increase in output quotas without holding a planned ministerial meeting next week.

New York light crude futures (CLc1: Quote, Profile, Research) were down 32 cents at $40.65, after surging more than a $1.50 a barrel on Wednesday, after weekly data showed an unexpected fall in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories.

The figures heightened concerns over possible supply disruptions at a time when production capacity is being stretched by rapidly growing demand -- reckoned to be expanding at its fastest rate in 24 years by the International Energy Agency.

News of a fire at an oil pipeline in northern Iraq, where saboteurs have been targeting the country's oil infrastructure, compounded supply worries.

U.S. gasoline futures were higher, however, which technical analysts attributed to a continuation of bullish momentum after key resistance levels were breached on Wednesday.

"Gasoline is dancing to its own tune under technical pressure," said Ed Silliere, a trader with Energy Merchant in New York. "It is still responding to the speculative interest from yesterday."

...more...

[maddezmom]

31. Dow, Nasdaq Finish Lower on Terror Fears

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=542&ncid=693&e=6&u=/ap/20040715/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/us_gaza

[UpInArms]

32. closing numbers and blather

Dow 10,163.16 -45.64 (-0.45%)
Nasdaq 1,912.71 -2.17 (-0.11%)
S&P 500 1,106.69 -4.78 (-0.43%)
10-Yr Bond 4.485% +0.001

Today's session was heavy on economic and earnings news, but light on conviction... Accordingly, the indices vacillated around the unchanged mark for most of the day before a late program trade ensured a negative close... The inability of the major indices to get too far was attributed to the recognition that neither the economic news nor the earnings news succeeded in tilting the scales of sentiment in favor of either the bulls or the bears... To that end, a 0.3% decline in total PPI and a 0.2% increase in core- PPI quelled the market's inflation concerns, but a 0.3% decline in Industrial Production stirred concerns about a slowdown in economic activity... Briefing.com viewed the decline in Industrial Production as an aberration, pointing to the strength in the regional manufacturing reports (Empire State Index and Philly Fed) as evidence of very strong manufacturing conditions in July... Separately, there was encouraging earnings news from the likes of SanDisk (SNDK 24.08, +4.10) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH 65.71, +3.81) that was mitigated by disappointing guidance from the likes of Nokia (NOK 12.45, - 1.79) and PepsiCo (PEP 51.92, -1.49)... By and large, for every positive item, there seemed to be an equally negative item... In such an environment, it is no wonder that conviction was lacking... The understanding that IBM (IBM 84.02, -0.11) would be reporting its Q2 results after the close and that the Consumer Price Index for June would be released before tomorrow's open contributed to the drift as participants were cognizant that one - if not both - of those items will have market moving potential... From an industry standpoint, it was a mixed bag as well, but with the influential brokerage, telecom, regional bank, and drug groups faltering late in the session, the weak finish to the day made sense... With the close approaching, Pfizer (PFE 32.58, -1.43) proved to be a notable drag as the S&P and Dow component invited selling interest by trimming its FY04 sales forecast to $52.5-53.0 bln from $54.0 bln... Another individual standout was Harrah's Entertainment (HET 47.91, -3.07)... Before the open, the casino operator announced that it would be acquiring Caesars Entertainment (CZR 15.05, -0.95) in a stock and cash deal worth $9.44 bln when including the assumption of debt... On the bright side, the energy sector, and specifically the oil drilling and oil service stocks, remained a hotbed of buying interest... Those gains along with strength in the managed care, aluminum, air freight, and employment services groups helped keep the broader market's losses to a minimum... Separately, the 10-yr note ended the day unchanged at 4.48%... ..DJTA +1.3%. ..SOX +0.20%. ..Nasdaq 100 -0.01%. ..NYSE Adv/Dec 1744/1491. ..NASDAQ Adv/Dec 1535/1540.