Kerry Gains Lead in 3 States; National Polls Show Tie With Bush

[maddezmom]

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry gained the lead over President George W. Bush in three of the states both campaigns say will be battlegrounds in the November election, polls released this week showed. Nationally, the two remain tied for voter support.

Kerry led by 5 percentage points in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac University poll of registered voters. In Michigan and New Mexico, he is ahead by 7 percentage points, according to the American Research Group Inc. The three states hold 43 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency. Kerry is tied in North Carolina, a state Bush won in 2000 by 12.8 percentage points, a Mason-Dixon Polling and Research survey found.

``The underlying numbers show there are concerns for the Bush administration,'' Dick Bennett, president of Manchester, New Hampshire-based American Research Group, said in an interview. ``Independent voters, who are considered the most persuadable, tend to be lining up behind Kerry.''

~snip~
more: http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=ayq789QCMtCw&refer=top_world_news

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AP - Results of Latest Campaign Polls

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&ncid=696&e=6&u=/ap/20040716/ap_on_el_pr/presidential_polls_glance

[truthisfreedom]

1. heh. at this point, if they line up behind the bush camp they know what

they'll get on their shoes.

[llmart]

2. Yee Haw!!!!

n/t

[Ripley]

3. SEE!!!! Kerry is tied in NC, not losing by 14 points like Gallup lied...

the other day in that shitty poll that had DUers attacking the good state of NC, yet again.

I can't believe they're "neck and neck" in a national poll! They're suppressing the numbers at their own damn risk...the tidal wave is coming BUSHCO...you better run for those Crawford hills, if there are any.

[Terran]

4. They haven't been "tied" in weeks, have they?

Kerry's been leading by 5 points nationally for some time now, which should be outside the error margin.

[lancdem]

11. Yes, they are not tied

There have been 10 polls released since Edwards was chosen; eight have Kerry ahead, one has Bush ahead, and one has a dead heat. I agree that the lead averages 4-6 points. And Kerry's momentum is reflected in the most recent state polls. That Bloomberg calculation that Bush has 180 electoral votes and Kerry 168 is way too conservative.

See this: http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com

[TahitiNut]

5. Kerry 312 Bush 215

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[maddezmom]

6. kick

[NWHarkness]

12. That map has Wisconsin and NC leaning to Bush

And recent polls have Kerry tied in NC and with a nice lead in Wisconsin.

[yardwork]

13. Thanks for the map!

I think it overstates Bush's strength in AZ, CO, NC, WV, and several other states.

A lot can happen between now and November 2. These crooks won't relinquish power without a huge fight and lots of dirty tricks.

I agree that we need to stay vigilant and continue to work hard. The polls mean nothing - the only thing that matters is the actual vote on November 2.

[RebelYell]

7. Bush is

SOOOOOO g-o-n-e

[Mountainman]

8. Just about every night I hear on cable, "Why can't Kerry get any traction"

I heard Andrea Mitchel on Hardball last night saying something like this. Why doesn't Kerry do better is it because people just don't like him or ................. That's not a quote but it is close to what she said. She makes a false statement in a question and then gives the guest a multiple choice quiz on the answer all of it used to create a straw man argument.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

9. because it is not a "dramatic" change in percentage numbers

Historically these shifts are not significant, but given the tightly polarized electorate today, these numbers represent broad and winnable margins.
We are going to win.

[alfredo]

10. But we should work like we are trying to catch up.

don't get lazy.

[charlyvi]

14. Like Big Dog said:

Kerry needs to "campaign as though Iraq was stable, the economy was going great guns, and bin Laden was dead..."

[Jeff in Cincinnati]

15. Smartest. President. Ever.

It's not enough to defeat Bush in November. We need to bury him. Embarrass him. Let there be no doubt that the American voters looked on the past four years and utterly and completely rejected his misleadership.

[charlyvi]

16. Wasn't it great when we had a smart President?

Even when he made policy mistakes, they were logical ones. And he did not hesitate to correct course when necessary, even knowing he'd be accused of pandering, waffling, manipulating, etc. Remember? Does it make me an evil person if I say I want the Right to pay dearly for the harm they did to Big Dog and the political landscape of our country. I WANT THEM TO PAY!!

Okay, I feel better now.

[struggle4progress]

17. So that's why our punk George is begging the Amish for votes ...

Bush quietly meets with Amish
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=690929