Zogby - TN: Kerry 48, * 48

[crissy71]

...A poll conducted by Zogby International after Kerry introduced the North Carolina senator as his vice presidential pick indicates that the Massachusetts senator was in a flat-out tie with President Bush in Tennessee, with both at 48 percent. A Zogby poll less than a month earlier indicated Bush was leading by 18 percentage points...

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/articles/2004/07/16/polls_show_key_kerry_gains/

[coloradodem2005]

1. That is news!!!!

We are making progress. We will win this thing. The Republicans are going down hard.

[sweetladybug]

6. I have been saying this for along time, that Kerry has a good chance

to win TN. I live here and I know what people are saying about Bush. He has people angry who have never voted before(now they are registering and plan to vote for Kerry. Also many folks who voted for Bush feel like he lied to then and conned them into voting for him in 2000 (these people are pissed and they either won't voted for Bush and vote for Kerry or they just won't vote at all.
ELECT KERRY/EDWARDS 2004!!!!!

[Claire Beth]

17. Yes, Gayle!!!!

I agree and hear the same things you are hearing!!! :kick:

KERRY/EDWARDS 2004!!!!!!

[rabid_nerd]

2. Cool...

nt

[Kahuna]

3. Zogby is the dude. Whether you like his results or not...

he is the most reliable.

[Chicago Democrat]

5. Yup, that Edwards commercial is the best... Let Edwards brag...

cause its not presidential to compliment yourself... That was Gore's mistake. Amazing how many surrogates Kerry has.. Its a good thing.

[JI7]

18. agree, sounds better when Edwards praises Kerry

than when one tries to praise themselves. edwards doesn'thave to hold back for fear of sounding too arrogant or full of himself. and of course edwards speaks as someone from the south which should also help.

[qazplm]

29. his PHONE results are reliable

even he says his interactive polling is unproven and prone to screwy results because the sample is self-selected.

[bluestateguy]

4. I'm not optimistic about Tennessee

I say Kerry loses it by 5 or 6 points. I actually think he has a better chance in NC, VA, AR or even Louisiana. If they wouldn't vote for their own AL Gore, why would they vote for Kerry from Massachusetts.

[Ripley]

10. Edwards is not Lieberman...

VP does matter. I heard Gore had Edwards on the short list..oh, if only he had picked him instead of Joementum...we probably wouldn't even have a DU.

[Old and In the Way]

24. And I'd have had 10,000 hours or so, of my life back.

:-)

[MallRat]

11. If Bush has to eke out a win in Tennessee...

...then he's toast in the battleground states.

[indepat]

28. My thoughts exactly: the polls must be wrong for Tennesseans in

general ain't smart enough to vote for the person/party who would best represent their interests: the number of religious and gun zealots, pocket racists, and absurdly irrevocably ignorant in Tennessee are surely sufficient for Bush to prevail, no matter how damaging any future information about misfeasance, malfeasance, and nonfeasance in his Administration might be forthcoming.

[Claire Beth]

14. well I can tell you WHY Tennessee didn't go for Gore....

I am in Tennessee and the biggest reason TN didn't go for Gore was because they felt Gore snubbed them here. People here do not think of Gore as actually being FROM TENNESSEE. He was educated in northern schools and went off to Washington. Tennessee voted for Clinton in both the 1992 AND the 1996 elections. I have been hearing for several months now from people who voted for Bush in 2000 and VERY disappointed with him and will NOT vote for him this time. I live in a conservative area of Davidson County and coming from the people around my area THAT says a lot! Of course, there will always be SOME who would vote for BUSH no matter what, but I am doing everything I can to see a KERRY victory here in Tennessee. Don't give up on Tennessee yet. Right now Kerry and Bush are tied here and that says a WHOLE LOT!!!! :kick:

[j4rester]

21. TN Voters

I agree- I had just moved to Knoxville in 2000 and many of the people thought Gore was taking them for granted. I know many think of TN people (esp. East TN) as Repub-Con bible-thumpers (some are and as in the rest of country they are generally the loudest and most noticeable) but many are more independent and often don't like being told by their church or leaders that they have to vote for a certain candidate or it is a sin.
A lot of the less politically inclined folk don't really see it as a Democrat/Republican thing. They see it as things being much worse now than 4 years ago and the president (true or not) has to be held responsible.
My dad (a life long Democrat and form UMWA member) has an even simpler point of view:
'Everytime a republican is elected working people get the shaft.'

At one time I thought he was overstating but I am beginning to see I was wrong.

[osaMABUSh]

40. That explains it - how Gore lost TN but Kerry can win it plus

having Edwards (a true North Carolinian) from a border state can't hurt.

[Jane Austin]

15. Because in 2000 they thought Bush was a reasonable candidate?

I don't think that's as much the case, now.

[Old and In the Way]

23. The difference now might be......

Tennesseans (?) have lived under the Bush administration for 3.5 years. Americans got a good quality of life under Clinton, but they also got non-stop Republican BS investigations/accusations (and the media). Also, in 2000, Bush was an unknown for most people. The known reality of the true Bush/Republican agenda should now favor ANY Democrat this election.

[Ripley]

7. Once again...People do not discount the South wholesale...

NC, TN, Louisiana and maybe even WVA are IN PLAY.

[4_Legs_Good]

8. Forcing them to fight for TN is great news

Keep it up. I bet those porch deals help a lot. I think Kerry does better in person than he does on TV. I don't know how well Edwards translates to reality, though (he already does very well on TV).

david

[Claire Beth]

16. I am in Tennessee....

and have seen LOTS of Kerry bumper stickers. I know several people who are very disappointed with Bush. Lookin' better here!!!!
:kick:

[osaMABUSh]

41. My sister saw Kerry in person and says he is warm and

genuine

[4_Legs_Good]

46. Fantastic!

[tridim]

9. Let's see the latest TX Zogby poll

Could be interesting..

[Reciprocity]

22. I second that. n/t

[maddezmom]

12. Kerry looking good in FL and WI

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=694&ncid=2043&e=9&u=/ap/20040716/ap_on_el_pr/presidential_polls_glance

[crissy71]

13. Farenheit 911 effect?

Postpone the election news effect?...nah, just Edwards

[NashVegas]

19. Bushies All Over the Place Here

* in Knoxville last week, Pickles in Nashville yesterday.

[NewYorkerfromMass]

20. No doubt in response to internal polling showing same dismal numbers

they obviously know they're in trouble there.
This is the best news all day.

[PurityOfEssence]

25. Totin' around that shotgun musta bin good for something

Then again, even when he was, he was losing the state. Putting on a Methodist from a neighboring state--even though he's never owned a gun--really does the trick, though...

[Old and In the Way]

26. Every state is in play, I think.

Even Texas. Name one thing Bush has done which would motivate the average voter to vote for him again (disregarding identification politics for a moment). Name the things he's done (or not done) that would motivate someone to switch their vote. Compare that to everyone who voted for Gore....how many will switch or sit it out?..."0".

I think 10% of the Bush voters in 2000 are gone. They'll be voting Democrat, possibly Nader, or not voting in November.


A 50 State sweep would be sweet...and it would give Kerry a solid mandate to change the direction Republicans have put this country on.

[MasonJar]

34. We must do well in the South so we do NOT lose the Senate

seats. Gore was really ripped off in Tenn. by Cat killer Frist. Remember no one was prepared for the theft because it had never been so blatant before. There were many irregularities such as sending black voters the wrong date for the election or the wrong precinct info. Gore is a gentleman; he never expected the roadblocks, etc.

[JackDragna]

36. Every state?

We're not even close in places like Mississippi, Utah, Wyoming, Idaho..it's good to be optimistic, but we're going to lose many, many states by large margins. The key is to win the close ones with many independent voters who don't like El Shrubbo.

[osaMABUSh]

43. Let's get back down to Earth - Kerry ain't sweeping nothing.

Even here in PA there are plenty of Bush koolaid drinkers that are going to make this a tough race. Likewise in most states.

[Old and In the Way]

47. Still 6 months to go.....

Between now and November there are still investigations ongoing (Plame, Abu Grahib), we still have the debates, the conventions, F9/11, and, who knows?; perhaps a a media bomb or two awaiting yet to be discovered.

Hey, I admit to optimism, but I wouldn't discount the "vote for a winner" mentality that many people use to make their decision. The more Bush looks like a loser as we get closer to the election, the more suspect his support is. Will he lose every state? Probably not.....but it certainly is well within the realm of possibility, given the polling trends. Hell, the present trend supports a 35% floor, come November.

[quaoar]

27. But what about

Everybody who has been saying the South is a waste of time and that Kerry shouldn't spend any resources down here.

[Literate Tar Heel]

31. a lot of that was after the nonsense Gallup poll in N.C.

that had Bush up by 15 points ... since then another poll has come out that has Bush up by 3 points, within the margin of error ... I don't think Kerry can give up on the South with a Southern senator as his running mate ... there's a good chance they can win TN, and perhaps AR, LA, and NC as well (WV too but I don't really consider that the South), which could come in very handy if they lose OH and/or WI and of course have FL stolen from them

[osaMABUSh]

44. Kerry could lose the ENTIRE South and Ohio and still win

I'm talking losing all the South including FLA and WV AND Ohio yet still win the election by sweeping the Midwest.

But that fact that he will probably win Oh and/or Fla makes that scenario extreme.

[JackDragna]

37. I'm one of those people..

..and I still believe it, despite Tennessee being close. The best shot Kerry has south of the Mason-Dixon, outside of Florida, is Louisiana, which unfortunately votes conservative in national elections. Kerry should save his money for Ohio, Michigan and the Midwest and leave the South to rot.

[NMDemDist2]

30. I love this number

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 312 Bush 215

[colonel odis]

32. as far as 2000 in tn, here are a couple of things to consider, perhaps

bush or cheney was here 5 times (i believe that's the number) that fall. they spent a disproportionate amount of time and money here. part of their leftover ken starr humiliation strategy was to make sure gore lost his home state.

james k. polk also lost tennessee in 1844 to henry clay yet still won the white house. (just as gore did.)

in 2000 tennessee had (and still has) two republican senators. at that time it had a republican governor. though now we have a democratic one with an 80% -- that's not a typo -- approval rating.

east tennessee always has been and probably always will be republican. that's 1/3 of the state the democrats lose off the bat.

personally, i think kerry has a great chance here. edwards won't hurt that either. edwards makes it ok in a lot of people's minds to warm up to kerry. if a regular guy like johnny reid likes him, then he must be sort of allright.

tennessee has also been hit very hard by job losses. get out of nashville and into some of these little counties, and there's not shit in the way of employment opportunities.

but for tennessee even to be in a dead heat is a quantum leap from where the electorate here was 4 years ago.

[Reciprocity]

33. So why is Edwards in L A and not in the south.

Edwards Courts Hispanic Voters in Calif

<snip>
Campaign aides said one purpose of Edwards' inaugural solo cross-country campaign trip is to show he has appeal beyond the South, including among minorities.

Yet, polls have suggested Edwards' biggest strength is among whites, moderates, independents and Republicans, especially in rural areas and small towns.

During the primary season, his message did not immediately appeal to minorities, who tended to go with the Democratic favorite, Kerry.
http://abcnews.go.com/wire/Politics/ap20040716_1196.html

[DaveSZ]

35. They voted to punish Al Gore

for not being closer to his home state as vp, and also because in the primaries he and Bradley were fighting over who could ban the most guns.

[JI7]

38. he is in los angeles for a fundraiser

but he will be back to campaign for votes among those you describe he has strength with.

[Reciprocity]

39. Thanks I was thinking it must be something like that.

I was surprised to see that Edwards was appealing to Republicans considering that he is a trial lawyer.

"Edwards' biggest strength is among whites, moderates, independents and Republicans, especially in rural areas and small towns."

[lottie244]

42. I just don't understand how half of voters could vote for Bush.

It is mind boggling.

[PylesMalfunction]

45. East TN is usually a GOP stronghold...

Just an completely unscientific observation. Before the 2000 (s)election, I saw tons of people driving around with their Bush/Cheney bumper stickers. Especially out in the scary, urban-sprawl, SUV loving kingdom of west Knoxville. I almost never saw a Gore bumper sticker. My BF and I were talking yesterday about how many Kerry bumper stickers we've seen lately. We've also seen a lot of anti-Bush ones as well which we used to see rarely. I don't think it's a matter of them standing out more to us now because we've been active politically for a while now. Like I said - totally unscientific but I have been feeling hopeful that Kerry could get the votes. Not whether those votes will counted... :(

[AnnitaR]

48. Get the hell out of here!?!

I cannot believe this! The tide is turning!

I live in Seymour, TN just 30 minutes from Knoxville. I have been surprised by the number of Kerry stickers I have been seeing in this heavily Puke part of the state. But I couldn't imagine that it's already that close here.

Chimpy's team had better be worried if they are doing this poorly in TN now. We have a great Dem as Gov now (Bredesen) and a lot of people are really impressed with what he has done in the first months of office. He could be a huge help to Kerry here.

Edwards will also be a huge help here. He can connect with people here in a way Gore never could or would. Edwards speaks our language if you will. Kerry needs to send Edwards through Memphis, Nashville, and Knoxville a couple of times before the election and he'd have a shot here I think.

This poll gives me hope. For TN to even be close is a sure sign that Chimpy ass is in a sling.

Also gotta say how surprised I am to see all the DUers from East TN! I had no idea so many of you were here!