Senators Mull Kerry Scenarios

[NewJerseyDem]

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/50_8/news/6286-1.html (subscription required)

The possibility of a John Kerry victory in November already has some aides and Members nervously eyeing the possibility that the early days of a new administration could be more chaotic than even the 106th Congress, when the Senate’s majority flipped twice within five months.

If a Kerry triumph provided an extra boost to Democratic chances of reclaiming the Senate, a net one-seat gain in the chamber would mean Vice President John Edwards could provide the 51st and tie-breaking vote for the purposes of organizing the chamber.

But under that very scenario, a whole series of twists and turns would likely take place, not the least of which is that the Senate majority could flip back and forth while what still seems likely to be a GOP-controlled House provides the aggressive opposition.

Unless Democrats take over the Senate with a clear and convincing majority of at least 52 seats — a feat most political prognosticators say is unlikely — the fight over selecting Kerry’s replacement in the Bay State could leave the Senate in a state of paralysis.

[troublemaker]

1. Interesting topic. Thanks. n/t

[Demeter]

2. Fie on the Prognosticators! It's Gonna Happen!

Believe that we are cleaning the House and the Senate and the White HOuse (not to mention a lot of state level positions) and look forward to the trials of the cnetury!

[Amarant]

3. Is this article out of date?

I read a few weeks ago the Mass legislature just passed a law saying kerry's seat would be filled by special election.

[NewJerseyDem]

4. They did do that

The article is new, but the law hasn't technically become official law yet. I believe Romney is likely to veto it soon and then the legislature will have to override him, and they have the votes to do that. However, they are considering what will happen if Kerry does win and there is a special election because that won't happen until at least April and then the question is what happens from January to April because that seat could determine the balance of power in the Senate.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

5. We have to win 51 seats including Kerry's vacant one too.

[Elginoid]

10. Illinois is a net gain- repuke retiring, Dem Obama running...unapposed?

wife-swapper ryan still hasn't officially dropped out, ex-linebacker Ditka took a pass, and the repukes are in a quandry...
Barak Obama in a fucking cakewalk!

[leyton]

16. Yes, but we will probably lose Georgia, so it's a wash. n/t

[Feanorcurufinwe]

6. We must win the Senate!

[Roy]

7. What is the possibility??????

The will be a close watch on the presidential election by the Kerry capaign, The NAACP, US Commission on Civil Rights, and others as well as increased local awareness.
Could this mean that there will be fewer chances to cheat in congressional races as well as state and local races?
Might there be some surprises in store for dems nationwide with a fairly clean election?

[Pachamama]

8. What happens to Kerry & Edwards seats in the Senate upon winning the

Presidency? Are they still Senators? Do they get to vote? Are the seats replaced with a Senator of the choosing by the Gov of each state? Aren't those Gov's both Repukes? How soon thereafter is a special election? Who is vying as the Republican and Democrat contenders?

Anyone know?

[tinrobot]

9. Edwards isn't running for reelection...

...so his seat goes to whoever wins the election in November.

Kerry is in the middle of his term. His seat would become vacant Jan 20th when he takes the oath. That seat would be filled by Gov Romney's appointment until a special election could be held... if the MA legislature passes the bill as expected and overrides the veto.

[NewJerseyDem]

15. I don't think that Romney gets to make any appointment

I believe that the seat will remain vacant until a special election is held. The likely Democrats that will run are Congressen Barney Frank, Martin Meehan and Ed Markey. The Republicans may run Paul Celluci, the former governor, but isn't very clear.

[dusty64]

11. I'm envisoning

a net gain of 1 to 3 for the Democrats in the Senate. Are the media now trying to push the idea that its better the way it is?

[Hawkeye-X]

12. based on the outlooks

I am predicting at a 56 seat majority for the Dems, and a 10 seat majority in the House also for the Dems. Let there be a clear and convinving message to the Pukes that they are very well on their way to extinction.

Hawkeye-X

[THUNDER HANDS]

14. wow, that's optimistic

A 10-seat majority?

With all the redistricting that's been done, especially in Texas, you'd think pulling within even numbers would be hard enough.

[slappypan]

13. at least with Clinton they waited until he was elected.

It's four months until the election and they are already declaring the Kerry administration a failure.

:eyes: