AP: Kerry Trails Bush in Electoral Votes (poor analysis)

[mom cat]

AP: Kerry Trails Bush in Electoral Votes

1 hour, 21 minutes ago

By RON FOURNIER, AP Political Writer

BOSTON - John Kerry (news - web sites) narrowly trails President Bush (news - web sites) in the battle for the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House, as he makes his case at the Democratic National Convention this week to topple the Republican incumbent. Tall hurdles remain in his path, including Electoral College (news - web sites) math that favors Bush.



With three months remaining in a volatile campaign, Kerry has 14 states and the District of Columbia in his column for 193 electoral votes. Bush has 25 states for 217 votes, according to an Associated Press analysis of state polls as well as interviews with strategists across the country.


"It's a tough, tough map. I think it's going to be a close race," said Democratic strategist Tad Devine, who helped plot Al Gore (news - web sites)'s state-by-state strategy in 2000 and plays the same role for Kerry.


"But looking back four years, we're much stronger now. I think we're going into this convention in great shape," he said.


Both candidates are short of the magic 270 electoral votes. The margin of victory will come from:


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=694&ncid=716&e=1&u=/ap/20040724/ap_on_el_pr/cvn_road_to270

[warrior1]

1. wrongo

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[Media_Lies_Daily]

4. Excellent site...jam-packed with great information.

[lancdem]

2. The article is misleading

but I like this quote:

"But looking back four years, we're much stronger now. I think we're going into this convention in great shape," he said.

[splat]

3. Our turn

Part of the battle for the underdog position.

Mobilizes voters, ya know.

[Proud2BAmurkin]

5. They include "interviews with strategists" in their "poll"???

Want to bet the numbers didn't come out in Idiot's favor so they worked in analysis from "strategists"?

What a bunch of bullshit.

AP whores.

[demgrrrll]

6. From the Daily Howler "Fournier and Harris should be reviled whenever

they walk through the streets" Strong statement.
I will admit that I do not think Bob was on the money about Wilson but he usually gets the journalists right. Another media hi de ho.

[yardwork]

7. Parts of this article were informative.

I hadn't realized, for instance, that Kerry needs to win ten more Electoral College votes than Gore did, due to redistricting. Of course, this is not as difficult as the writers of the article lead the reader to think.

In other words, their analysis is lousy and the polls they cite are questionable, but some of the background info in this article isn't bad.

Since then, reapportionment added electoral votes to states with population gains and took them from states losing people. The result: Bush's states are now worth 278 electoral votes and Gore's are worth just 260.

Even if Kerry consolidates Gore's states, no easy task, the Democrat must take 10 electoral votes from Bush's column to close the electoral vote gap.

[louis c]

8. Even Faux News Has Kerry

way ahead in Electoral votes 301-237

They have Kerry ahead in Missouri and way ahead (10%), in Pennsylvania.

These assholes have Penn. a toss-up, and give Mo. to Bush.

When you're even behind the Faux News curve, you are out of the ball game.

[MidwestTransplant]

9. PA leans Kerry for sure, if not strong. He left out others.

[skordane]

10. What about Ohio and Florida

I don't buy the story. Both Ohio and Florida are leaning towards Kerry at the moment. Unless Bush wins both these states he is toast.

[mom cat]

A great big welcome to DU. I can see that you are going to fit right in.

:hi:

[mom cat]

17. Hi and welcome to DU. Enjoy the ride.

:hi:

[louis c]

18. Welcome aboard skordane

You're correct.

If you like up to date polling data try this site




http://www.rasmussenreports.com

[Downtown Hound]

11. AP's been whoring for Bush big time...

Their polls almost always have a Bush lead when every other poll has a Kerry lead. They also always have Nader with the largest percent, sometimes as high as 7, which is ridiculous. Once upon a time they were a respectable news organization. No longer. They're FOX without the infobabes.

[MattNC]

12. noticed that too n/t

[stilpist]

13. Nothing to nothing right now.

IIRC, electoral votes will be determined by an election in November (in theory, at least).

[Fed Up]

14. PA is almost surely going for Kerry, imo. Teresa is too popular there.

Ed Rendell is the governor. Al Gore carried PA. I just don't see PA being a toss up state.

Kerry and Edwards should seal the deal next week.

[PSU84]

15. Ron Fournier is Fox News material.....

Check out the electoral college projections at www.rasmussenreports.com or in TIME magazine. Both have Kerry ahead, as do all reasonably intelligent, unbiased observers.

[PSU84]

16. Ron Fournier is Fox News material.....

Check out the electoral college projections at www.rasmussenreports.com or in TIME magazine. Both have Kerry ahead, as do all reasonably intelligent, unbiased observers.

[Ravy]

19. This is great for a number of reasons....

(1) It sets the expectations lower, so anything showing Kerry leading after next week can be pointed to as monmentum.

(2) Kerry is a better speaker when his back is to a wall.

(3) Reminder that Democrats should lot be complacent.

[lancdem]

20. I agree

I think the Kerry campaign is OK with this, too, as you can see by the quote in the article by Mr. Devine.

[maggrwaggr]

21. makes me feel literally ill that anybody could be so misinformed

about Bush.

The man should be in jail, not running for election.

He should have been cut off from the reins of power a long time ago.

If this country votes for Bush, it's completely hopeless. I'm done with this place.

[quaoar]

22. The Latest Nevada poll

Has kerry up by 4 percentage points.

And the AP article gives nevada to Bush.

The AP article also says that Democrats are writing off Missouri. Just today the AP moved the latest Missouri poll that shows Kerry up by two.

Where the fuck did that come from?

[Wednesdays]

23. Dems writing off Missouri?? Hahaha...

Hell, there's talk of a chance we might take Oklahoma!

[Chomskyite]

24. Why doesnt newsmax just hire Fournier and get it over with?

Everybody knows by now he's passing off conservative editorials as news.

[Pachamama]

25. What's really scary is the "re-aportioning" that the Repukes have led....

"Since then (2000), reapportionment added electoral votes to states with population gains and took them from states losing people. The result: Bush's states are now worth 278 electoral votes and Gore's are worth just 260."

[Gyre]

26. Well aware that the electoral college isn't the popular

vote but check this out anyways. http://www.pollingreport.com/iraq.htm.

The yahoo "article" is exactly that, an article/opinion piece. Hence, not news. There are no statistics to back up it's assertions, UNLIKE the pollingreport link I provided which points to a completely different conclusion.

Gyre