Poll Shows Support for Kerry Weakens on Issues and Attributes(Iraq-fear-?)

[papau]

http://www.abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/Vote2004/kerry_poll_040726.html

Poll Shows Support for Kerry Weakens on Issues and Attributes

Analysis By Gary Langer

July 26, 2004— <snip>Kerry has lost support against Bush in trust to handle five of six issues tested in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll (by telephone July 22-25 among a random national sample of 1,202 adults, including 909 registered voters, MOE 3%) including terrorism, Iraq, taxes and even health care. And Kerry's ratings on personal attributes — honesty, strong leadership, consistency, empathy and others — have softened as well.<snip>

The bottom line has shifted only very subtly. Head-to-head, the Massachuestts senator has slipped from a slight lead in late June to a dead heat today, with 49 percent support for Bush and 48 percent for Kerry among registered voters. Including Ralph Nader, it's 48 percent-46 percent-3 percent. <snip>

But perceptions on policy and personality are more important than horse-race standings at this stage, and there Kerry has work to do. He has a crucial chance to regain momentum as he accepts the Democratic nomination this week: Fewer than half of registered voters, 46 percent, say they have a good idea where he stands on the issues, a huge 28 points behind Bush. That represents opportunity, if Kerry can deliver a message that resonates. <snip>

An improving economy and the handover of authority in Iraq are among the likely factors influencing these assessments. So, too, is the attention focused on terrorism by the release of the Sept. 11 commission report last week. The nation's response to 9/11 has been Bush's finest hour in public approval; focus on it accrues to his advantage.<snip>

[MaineDem]

1. I don't believe this (nt)

[dolstein]

4. Why not?

I think the problem so many DU'ers have is that they blindly accept any poll whose results match their own personal preferences, and blindly reject any poll whose results run counter to their own personal preferences.

Personally, I think the only rational thing to do is the withhold judgment and wait to see whether other polls confirm this shift. After all, we already have one "faith based" party, we certainly don't need another.

[lancdem]

5. The good news is the convention is coming

at an ideal time. This really is the first time a lot of voters will get to see what Kerry's all about. The post-convention polls will tell the tale.

[w4rma]

20. You better. Most folks dont see Kerry uncut. Only what the media filter

lets through.

[RodneyCK2]

2. What is it with ABC?

Did they strike a Bush&Co shill deal, offered exclusive coverage at the Republican convention or something?

[lancdem]

3. Bush ahead on Kerry on health care?

You have to be kidding. I think Mr. Langer may be on to something regarding the 9/11 report. Coverage of it helped Bush rather than hurt him, so he got a bit of a bounce, perhaps. I guess it's a good thing the convention is happening right now.

BTW, other polls show no change in people's Iraq perceptions since the turnover.

Let's regard this poll as a best-case-scenario for Bush. During his presidency, the WaPo/ABC polls have had among the most pro-Bush out there.

[papau]

6. ABC, Fox, and NBC polls are all suspect while this GOP control is

so obvious.

No one will ever again fall for the line that Bush and Rove are so good at making friends with the media - If only the Democratic folks would learn to do better they would get better, fairer, coverage.

The fact that they are gutless, without ethics, media whores controlled by their paycheck, which is control by those in the GOP right wing, has become too obvious to the world press. I doubt these folks will change.

But some of them might show some shame now and again - and not try to sell the "ability with the press" lie again.

[Cha]

17. Michael Wolff of Vanity Fair was on c-span this morning

propogating that lie...I was yelling at the screen. he said the republicans always called back and were so polite and I wanna write him and say yeah all they tell you is freakin' lies so what good are they?

[papau]

23. Scafie billions can pay for "high touch" - but this guides reporting?

I bought the concept for a few months in 2000.

Fool me once shame on you

Fool me twice, shame on me

Call it as it is - media whores with no ethics except a paycheck response.

[Beetwasher]

7. Best Case Scenario or Back Story?

I dunno, I'm really beginning to think they're creating a back story or a cover story...

[leftchick]

18. cover story...

to steal the election again.. :(

[Democat]

8. Maybe being a "nice guy" isn't going to work better this year than 2000?

I hope the Kerry people know what they are doing.

Do Americans want a "nice" president? It didn't work in 2000.

[lancdem]

9. They do

Kerry's a tough customer.

[NWHarkness]

10. I'll tell you why I don't buy this poll

Because it shows dramatic change for no apparent reason. There is no cause and effect reason why Kerry would have plunged on so many issues all at once, while he was actually getting primarily good press. Every other poll has shown that the reasons ABC cites, the "improving economy" and the sham Iraq handoff, are not having the effect ABC is claiming.

If this poll is right, all the rest are wrong.

[Carni]

11. If this IS true

Then obviously Kerry need sto go back to the so called "Bush bashing"

This tone of civility shit is for the birds.

Go ahead and flame me...but you don't take a knife to a gun fight.

[nolabels]

12. A lot of people are planing civility

Just not all in the same way


Tired of taking fire, Baghdad's police chief gets tough
DRAGNET: Officers impose gun control one house at a time, take each family's AK-47

John Koopman, Chronicle Staff Writer
Saturday, July 24, 2004

Baghdad -- Gen. Thamer was mad.

Someone shot two of his police officers. Killed one, wounded the other.

So he gathered 650 Iraqi police officers and descended upon a quiet neighborhood in Baghdad. When it was over, he had nearly 100 Kalashnikov assault rifles and three suspects in custody.
(snip)
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2004/07/24/MNGQC7SL3Q1.DTL


Sun, July 25, 2004
Iran new U.S. whipping boy

Those who deceived America into attacking Iraq may be at it again, cautions Eric Margolis
By ERIC MARGOLIS -- Contributing Foreign Editor

Did Iran help al-Qaida stage the Sept. 11 attacks on the United States?

Perhaps, suggested the U.S. 9/11 commission. It claimed Iran allowed eight al-Qaida future airplane hijackers to pass through Iran from Afghanistan between seven and 11 months prior to the attacks on America.

Unnamed senior Bush administration officials also claim Iran proposed collaborating with al-Qaida in 2000, but was rejected by Osama bin Laden. "Maybe we attacked the wrong country," one of the dimmer lights in Congress ruefully observed.

There has been no real evidence produced that Iran knew of the 9/11 attacks or assisted them. In fact, the Bush administration has still never produced the white paper promised by Colin Powell in late 2001 proving bin Laden and al-Qaida were behind 9/11.

Why would Iran, knowing it was in Bush's gunsights, join in a monstrous terrorist attack that, if linked to Tehran, could have conceivably brought U.S. nuclear retaliation?
(snip)
http://www.canoe.ca/NewsStand/Columnists/Toronto/Eric_Margolis/2004/07/25/556378.html
http://www.antiwar.com/

[Carni]

15. I guess I am just beyond pretenses

I don't want to see all this touchy feely "we are above all this negativity"...like the crap that was spewed in 2000.

I just feel it's a mistake.

[nolabels]

19. Yea, telling people to shove it just don't work

John shoould of punched Nazi-Scaife-funded twerp in the nose and went mono-on-mono with him in the cage just for looking, let alone messing with her.


http://artographyphotos.com/ringpics/UKMMAC1-03-03/

[Carni]

21. I wish Theresa would have said go Cheney yourself

[nolabels]

24. I wish she would have called security

Maybe next time :-)

Energize the Women's Vote in 2004
By Donna Brazile, Women's eNews

Posted on June 4, 2004, Printed on July 26, 2004
http://www.alternet.org/story/18869/
(snip)
Women in Leading Roles

Although our male counterparts have often been seen as foot dragging and waiting until the right moment to give women a seat at the table, in this new political season, women are already playing leading roles in the presidential campaigns.

Just recently, Karen Hughes, the Republican media savvy wordsmith and spokesperson announced she was coming out of semi-retirement to help guide the Bush-Cheney reelection efforts. Hughes is not only a strong willed and determined Texan, she is smart enough to know what plays in small town America before pollsters and others dial around for answers.

On the Democratic side, which happens to be my side in this highly charged and deeply polarized campaign season, my money is on Mary Beth Cahill.

Cahill, John Kerry's campaign manager, is a relative newcomer to presidential campaigns, but she's no stranger to making waves for women.
(snip)

[The_Casual_Observer]

13. Usual problem with the public

They don't make ANY effort to find out the candidates position and they say,"I don't know what he stands for". If chimp were to win this election it would be for two reasons: The buy off of the public using the the $600 checks, and standing at ground zero with the old fireman.
This is what chimp "stands for". If chimp wins, I am sad to say that the public will get what they deserve in the following 4 years.

[agincourt]

14. There will be some dip,

from the Sandy Berger BS. Main thing is not to bring him back.

[librechik]

16. ABC consistently rates Bush higher historically

and they suck MickeyDick.

here's a post from Truth Is All depicting the trends. I hope she doesn't mind my posting it here (I don't have a forum link for it but it is a useful graphic)

(note the abnormally high #s for Bush at CNN, Fox and
ABC) Looks like it's Kerry!


NATIONAL TREND AND ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST


LAST THREE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS
Total Votes (millions)
Dem 138.75 52.60
Rep 125.03 47.40

STATE POLLING DATA SOURCE
www.electoral-vote.com



ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION SUMMARY

Sensitivity Vote% AvgEV MaxEV MinEV
Simulation I
Kerry%Und 60%
Kerry wins 95 51.94% 314 376 223
Bush wins 5 48.06% 224 315 162

Simulation II
Kerry%Und 70%
Kerry wins 99 52.85% 328 389 260
Bush wins 1 47.15% 210 278 149

Simulation III
Kerry%Und 80%
Kerry wins 100 53.77% 348 409 277
Bush wins 0 46.23% 190 261 129



NATIONAL AVERAGE POLLING TREND

Data source: PollingReport.com
IBD,ABC,NWK,ARG,NBC,CBS,PEW,LAT,ZOGBY,TIME

Average Trend Projection
Kerry Bush Diff Kerry Bush Diff
Jan 42.50 50.17 -11.50 46.48 53.52 -7.03
Feb 48.00 45.43 2.57 52.60 47.40 5.20
Mar 48.13 44.38 3.75 53.38 46.63 6.75
Apr 47.38 44.88 2.50 52.80 47.20 5.60
May 47.11 44.22 2.89 53.18 46.82 6.36
June 47.13 45.00 2.13 52.64 47.36 5.28
July 49.57 44.29 5.29 53.87 46.13 7.74

Undecided/other alloc. to Kerry:70.0%

Kerry Projection = Kerry poll avg + allocation x
other/undecided
=49.57+ 0.70 x (100 - (49.57+44.29))
=49.57+ 0.70 x 6.14
=49.57+4.298 = 53.87



ELECTORAL VOTE SIMULATION FORECAST


Simulation II
70% Undecided/other to Kerry

..... Wins...Pct.....Avg EV Max EV Min EV
Kerry 99 52.85% 328 389 260
Bush 1 47.15% 210 278 149


Last 3
Elect. Proj. Kerry Trials
State Dem% Kerry% Pr(win) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
AL 44.8 45.0 1.0%
AK 37.6 40.7 0.1%
AZ 48.8 47.2 16.4% 10 10
AR 55.2 50.6 55.8% 6 6 6 6 6
CA 57.4 57.2 99.0% 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55 55
CO 48.8 49.3 41.4% 9 9 9
CT 57.7 62.6 99.0% 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
DE 56.8 57.1 99.0% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
DC 90.3 90.4 99.0% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
FL 50.7 53.3 88.4% 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
GA 47.6 45.9 1.0%
HI 59.0 60.9 99.0% 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
ID 35.7 39.0 0.1%
IL 57.9 60.0 99.0% 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
IN 44.8 45.9 1.0%
IA 51.8 53.6 95.0% 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
KS 42.4 41.6 0.1%
KY 46.7 45.3 1.0% 8
LA 49.2 49.0 37.5% 9 9 9 9 9
ME 57.1 52.3 76.9% 4 4 4 4 4 4
MD 57.8 58.6 99.0% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MA 65.3 66.3 99.0% 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12
MI 54.7 54.2 97.5% 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 17
MN 55.7 53.3 88.4% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
MS 44.3 36.3 0.1%
MO 52.5 52.1 75.0% 11 11 11 11 11 11
MT 44.9 42.8 0.1%
NE 37.5 36.5 0.1%
NV 49.9 51.4 65.4% 5 5 5 5 5 5
NH 51.7 56.7 99.0% 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
NJ 56.5 56.6 99.0% 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15
NM 53.0 55.3 99.0% 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
NY 62.6 66.4 99.0% 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31
NC 46.6 49.9 48.5% 15 15 15 15 15
ND 40.8 37.2 0.1%
OH 50.8 51.1 61.5% 20 20 20 20 20 20
OK 42.8 35.2 0.1%
OR 53.6 56.2 99.0% 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
PA 54.2 54.1 97.5% 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
RI 65.6 64.2 99.0% 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SC 44.4 47.5 20.2% 8 8
SD 44.5 44.8 0.1%
TN 50.5 50.8 57.7% 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
TX 44.3 42.6 0.1%
UT 33.6 29.7 0.1%
VT 59.4 60.1 99.0% 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
VA 47.3 48.5 31.7% 13 13 13 13 13
WA 55.9 55.1 99.0% 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11
WV* 54.0 47.2 16.4% 5 5
WI 52.7 51.3 65.4% 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
WY 38.3 30.8 0.1%

Avg 52.6 52.85% - 387 340 349 346 344 332 347 351 325
291

[AndyTiedye]

22. What Does Your Simulation Say if We Only Get 50% of the Undecideds?

and all of the ones who say they are voting for Nader really does?

Undecided voters are easily swayed by advertising, "terra alerts",
churches, and TV "news". Bush* appeals to all of their baser
instincts, so they are just looking for an excuse to vote for him.
We will have to fight for half of the undecided vote. We may not
get even that.

What we really need are more NEW voters!

[GaryL]

26. Not likely with an incumbent.

Generally undecideds that vote fall two to one against the incumbent. This year the chimp has especially high negatives with undecideds and it's a tall order to sway them back. In fact, most internal polls I've seen have him cap out at 47% which is why they're so desperately pushing Nader. Pay no attention to these spot news polls which generally have 4% error margins. Jesus, that's literally and 8 point swing so how can they be close to being valid?

[AndyTiedye]

28. What Does Your Simulation Say?

> most internal polls I've seen have him cap out at 47%

If Bush* gets 47% of the undecideds, then Kerry probably gets 50%
of it and Nader gets 3%.

We should also assume that Florida's votes get awarded to Bush*
by hook or by crook.

What does your model say for that?

[troublemaker]

25. Question: wasn't Bush back on the air last week? (TV Ads) n/t

[Gyre]

27. This unfortunately is probably accurate

http://www.pollingreport.com/BushFav.htm. Looks to me like Bush got a bounce last week. :grr:

Gyre

[sidpleasant]

29. Kerry's getting killed on the "flip - flop" charge

I saw the Club For Growth's anti - Kerry ad on the Today Show this morning. It shows a John Kerry weather vane swinging from side to side as the voice over recites a list of Kerry's alleged flip - flops. At the end of the commercial the Kerry - vane spins wildly and finally flies off out of sight. I hate to say it but I thought it was an effective attack ad. For some reason I don't grasp a lot of the voting citizenry genuinely believes that changing one's mind is a serious character flaw in a politician. We're not going to change that attitude in the next 100 days. Kerry's got to come up with some response to this line of attack. For a start his campaign could clone the CFG's ad and start attacking Bush and Cheney for their own vast history of flip - flops: against the 9/11 commission and then for it, for the assault weapons ban in 2000 and against it now, against the 9/11 commission's recommendations last week and for them on Monday, for a 50 cent / gallon gas tax hike in the '80s and against it now, and so on. Positive ads are nice but at soem point Kerry's got to fight back.